Mini Normal 2153: Post-game
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In post 1, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:14 real life days (168 hours)- Dunnstral
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Good point, want to vote him?In post 63, Klick wrote:And that's the 2nd post after that one.- Dunnstral
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In post 91, Isis wrote:popsofctown is my alt.Spoiler:- Dunnstral
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Get this man some sheep for his wagon, asapIn post 203, geraintm wrote:
I've been in a game where he was active enough day 1 as town to step in and try and stop a wagon that was about to lynch smeone they thought shouldn't be, and was high profile enough that they then got themselves lynched.In post 202, Dunnstral wrote:What do you expect from bob?
this game....not like that at all. very passive- Dunnstral
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Or he's scum and doesn't want to seem overeager, which yields a similar reaction. You pointing this out made me a bit suspicious of him.In post 295, Hoopla wrote:
^una steadfastly resisting the town bloc invitation.In post 289, UnaBombaH wrote:And mind you, everyone, I'm not a HUGE fan of "townblocs" in general, and I would be scolding Hoopla for this one as well (like I did last game :igmeou: ), but I think this is just how they play as town and they need it either for solving or entertainment purposes. :lol:
Me being a part of this bloc of Hoopla this time around is neither here nor there.
I WILL be calling out Hoopla if I smell scum on that bloc, but so far they have at least been more reserved with how they include people in.
And one good example of them doing better than what I was afraid of - notscience not being included in their latest townreads just because they have a "solid townread" on Hoopla.
I'm not saying they've outright become a scumread for me, but they are definitely teetering on the edge.. :igmeou:
okayokay, we get it. you're town. there's no need to convince us further with this coy display.
just relax and accept the rightful privilege afforded to the town bloc elite.
Looking over t heir iso more closely, doesn't it seem like he''s maneuvering in a way where he sets himself up to suspect a few people, or pivot to certain players, while calling others town, it feels manipulative to me.
Like in 153, and [post]287[/v] for his suspects
VOTE: UnaBombaH- Dunnstral
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Bad reactionIn post 313, Bellaphant wrote:...^^ is a very weird jump off of a weak wagon onto a moon logic pov.
I can't work out what I think about it, but it's making me head tilt- Dunnstral
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You shouldn't be ok with my lynchIn post 407, Klick wrote:People I'd be interested in lynching today is starting to look something like this:
bob3141
Sujimichi●
Bellaphant
Emperor flippyNips
Hoopla
popopopopopopo
With like meh maybes on Galron and Dunn.- Dunnstral
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That is unclear, but this is when it started:
In post 346, notscience wrote:Maybe dunn in the red but nothing re hoops.- Dunnstral
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346 was in response to una
395 is in response to hoopla and isis
clear enough to mention after you've asked me 4 or so questions, sureIn post 424, notscience wrote:
So its not clear but clear enough to mention?In post 414, Dunnstral wrote:As soon as I started calling certain people scum there was a perceptible shift in the way people started treating me
Or you got caught in a lie and are trying to rectify it.- Dunnstral
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14?In post 436, Replacement for Sujimichi wrote:or someone needing twice as many votes to be lynched.- Dunnstral
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We played in 3 games together 3 years back and I was anti-town in all of themIn post 470, Bellaphant wrote:I remember playing with dun years back when I (and he) were fairly new and being impressed, so I guess I'm also reading the slot through 'this isn't what I expect'.
Klick is a cuddle sober, tbf. He's generally happy and giggly drunk, but I'm wondering if the wine got him out of his head enough to post more naturally.- Dunnstral
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Yes I am, and I pointed to why
I kind of was with Isis/Hoopla. I think some of the things Hoopla has been pushing is questionableIn post 524, UnaBombaH wrote:I thought they were trying to stir the pot and scavenge some reads from that,- Dunnstral
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In post 565, notscience wrote:Why did that wagon go from 0 to l-1 in 2 pages and 12 hoursIn post 566, notscience wrote:
I do agree with this post I don’t know if I commented it alreadyIn post 545, Bellaphant wrote:Hoops calling that wagon of nully/scummy people town was like...the real issue here..plus the random Pockety post towards me.
Bad reaction to be quite honestIn post 567, notscience wrote:I still agree spiritually just the speed of the wagon is giving me the heebie jeebies- Dunnstral
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Why do you keep taking potshots at me?In post 570, Klick wrote:Dunn putting it at L-1 is sketchy but not inherently bad.- Dunnstral
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https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=83142In post 575, Isis wrote:Dunnstral did you win a scumgame or something
Here are my sources:In post 577, Klick wrote:
[citation needed]In post 571, Dunnstral wrote:
Why do you keep taking potshots at me?In post 570, Klick wrote:Dunn putting it at L-1 is sketchy but not inherently bad.
In post 81, Klick wrote:I hadn't quite realized that Bob had only posted the 'second' lol. That does make Dunn's vote pretty weird.
VOTE: BellaphantIn post 185, Klick wrote:Your favorite show is on downstairs Bella :P
I dunno, there's not much to work with. Dunn could stand to try a lot harder, because if everyone had his approach to the early-game then we'd never reach Page 80. I'm surprised you're engaging as much as you are, because you usually say exactly what Dunn's saying right now about the early game. What's different about this game?In post 407, Klick wrote:People I'd be interested in lynching today is starting to look something like this:
bob3141
Sujimichi●
Bellaphant
Emperor flippyNips
Hoopla
popopopopopopo
With like meh maybes on Galron and Dunn.
This is amidst you calling me town sporadically so it's pretty weirdIn post 570, Klick wrote:Don't relieve pressure now, Hoopla hasn't even seen what we've done with the place :P
I remember there being a few fast wagons last game? I guess the difference is that they weren't on Hoopla.
I think the core of this wagon has been town-driven. Isis feels town, Bella's approach to it has been good, you and Una are town. Dunn putting it at L-1 is sketchy but not inherently bad.- Dunnstral
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As a reminder I'm town and it doesn't matter how "scummy" I amIn post 631, Isis wrote: A scummier rear end to the wagon means the scumteam doesn't think you're seriously likely to get exiled...- Dunnstral
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Because I was the last vote?In post 638, Isis wrote:
I've said I townread you, so why did you assume you were the part of the rear end of the wagon I was indicating? I've been liking you but that has a sound like "out, damned spot" to itIn post 633, Dunnstral wrote:
As a reminder I'm town and it doesn't matter how "scummy" I amIn post 631, Isis wrote: A scummier rear end to the wagon means the scumteam doesn't think you're seriously likely to get exiled...- Dunnstral
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tl;dr; you're scumreading me because of 'statistics' rather than my one play, and you never reevaluatedIn post 637, Hoopla wrote:to pick up from my last post, i'm aware that i am an opaque player that is largely unreadable early in games. over time, i have since come to accept that fact about myself and lean into it. i do as i please, and hope the town can see the game is going in the right direction. that usually quells paranoia about my play for a while, but i acknowledge in games where we are frequently mis-executing or things are going off the rails i should definitely be a suspect. this puts pressure on me to be correct early in games, or to do enough d1/d2 to scare scum into NK'ing me.
on to some analysis:
fans of my work may have seen in recent times i have been honing my system of "Holistic Abstracts and Heuristic Analytics" (or H.A.H.A for short). this is a special blend of large-scale data analysis (mostly of d1 play, as this is the cleanest data to work with) and with a healthy sprinkling of intuitive magic to guide it all. i am still weighting how valuable each metric is (this is where intuition plays a role), but here are a couple of observations i've noted that are currently influencing my reads;
a useful metric with enough statistical significance i've seen is that of early game wagons. for this data set, i've collected the alignment of every player that has received a wagon of four players within the first 150 posts of games. these numbers were chosen as they symbolically represent the tipping point of a wagon to "something serious", and by ~150 posts or so, we should be out of the RVS stage of the game. these are fluid concepts that vary from game to game (which is why i use the largest sample size i can), but it's a useful data-backed illumination of a tell i often see early in games.
scum make up ~23% of the town's population D1, so this is a very significant observation and why i think bob is likely town. to explain why this is the case, i hypothesise that the earlier the game is, the more any vote can be justified. and when any vote can be justified, townies will more or less randomly vote/wagon any player, whereas there are 3 scum-votes that are more likely to land on town by virtue of ignoring teammates more often than random. scum are much willing to place the third or fourth vote on a town player for the sake of wagoning than on a partner because any vote can be justified - it's not damning to ignore a teammate's early wagon when it is currently "random". this discrepancy expresses itself in the numbers. townies are much more likely to be the target of an early wagon.
this is also why i pivoted to a dunnstral vote in 52. he was the fourth voter on the wagon citing "scummy posts", when bob had posted just once. that was the vote that made me think that this wagon had landed on town, and this belief grew throughout the game as more players jumped on bob.
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folks who played with me in mini 2146 would also remember i revealed some large scale D1 lurking data. i'm relying on this less this game now that is has been exposed, as i suspect players like klick, una and notscience would act in a deliberate way to subvert this, and definitely inform scumbuddies to stay active in any of them are indeed scum. so, i am not considering lurking data in any real way, but a useful corollary i didn't reveal last game is voting frequency to post-count frequency. town vote-hop on d1 at much higher rates than scum, and though i am still in the process of completing this data-set, it appears significant.
this was an influential reason in why i powered and sat on the geraintm wagon as much as i did. he was a classic candidate of scum finding a vote acceptable enough to be unchallenged, then sitting on it without much reevaluation. it takes effort to be constantly reevaluating the gamestate as scum and to find convincing reasons for your opinions to change. this is why we see scum sit on hivemind-approved votes longer than town, as switching votes incurs the risk of receiving additional attention/critique of your play.
players like klick and notscience seem vote-hoppy-happy anyhow, so i don't extend the tell to capable, aware players like them, but i suspect this tell is meaningful for a player like geraintm and why i still suspect him.
we have had a lot of useful wagons so far; one on galron that i haven't spoken about yet comes to mind. realistically, i'd prefer to speak about the d1 wagons as a whole in conjunction with alignment flips (if i make it that far), and will next switch to some behavioural things and PoE work i have been doing behind the scenes.
i will also say i am flustered and annoyed that i am being forced into collating all my views so early in the game. i prefer to do that after churning up the game-thread for information, but it appears this is the way the dice have fallen this game, and i will give the town as much as i can to work with, come what may.- Dunnstral
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So you finally explained why you were voting me. You know I knew bob's post history when I said 'scummy posts', I didn't just throw that out there and never check their posts.In post 653, Hoopla wrote:to any concerned townies,
this is another thing i rarely mention about my play, but feel it may shed light on my actions.
being a dominant force in a game is a blessing and a curse. i try to use my influence as town in the most productive and +EV way as i can. it is hard to for town to see the fruits of my labour this early, but another useful byproduct that comes of it, is it forces literally every player to take a stance on me, or interact with me in some way. given i only know my own alignment as town on d1, i deduce everyone's alignment in relation to my own.
without getting to MD-theoretical, deliberate obfuscation and radically shifting the gamestate's flow is something i encourage to force scum to continually have to adjust, and quite often it shakes out some obvtowns in the process. if i am going to be unreadable anyhow, i may as well selfishly discombobulate the gamestate to better improve my reads. in my eyes, there is nothing to be lost here, and only gains information-wise.
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intuitively, i am highly suspicious of klick for the reason Sujimichi documented in 599;
from my perspective, it is clear there was some opportunism in the early-mid part of my wagon. given klick appears to understand the purpose of my play, his vote is highly suspicious. occam's razor: is it more likely he actually thinks i am scum here, or is he seizing the moment when whispers of hoopla suspicion started floating about? i think the latter. and as a bonus moment of suspicion; calling for bellaphant to join the wagon in 536. isn't she your suspect?In post 599, Replacement for Sujimichi wrote:
The current events are interesting given Klick's opinion here.In post 123, Klick wrote:I don't think I'm going to be able to accurately read Hoopla until like Day 3 at best. Until then, Hoopla is a consistently good influence on the gamestate and probably won't be getting executed today.
i think klick is manipulating bellaphant turn-of-heart on his alignment to power this wagon, whereas if he is actually town, he would be wary of forming a coalition with a suspect.
i still townread bellaphant on tone, and partially find her town in relation to klick's scumminess. i think the interplay between one another has been too nuanced for them to be both scum together, so i am still townreading her and accept her vote, partially sad, yet also optimistic that she can see the light.
notscience's vote also seemed opportunistic and of all the players voting me, i'd like him to explain his vote. as recently as 518 notscience ruled me as town;
then he jumps on my wagon in 553, abandoning the dunnstral wagon (who he actually suspects!) to power mine. explain yourself notscience.In post 518, notscience wrote:Gera, una (but I’m a little annoyed I’m going to have to argue against his scumread me all game again), klick, you (?), flippy
una is another vote i can kinda see as being OK - it is at least consistent with how his view on me has evolved throughout the game, and i am still townreading him. i mean, there has to be at least a couple of confused townies voting me; he is probably one of them.
the only two votes i haven't talked about has been the head of the wagon and the caboose; isis and dunnstral. neither ping me overtly one way or another. i see motivations either way.
isis has displayed a healthy/natural amount of paranoia for my slot that i usually come to expect from town players who have dealt with me in the past. i oftentimes find scum will just placate me or attack me in an over-the-top way without any subtlety (for those who read or were in mini 2146 see how pranadevil-scum treated me in that game). my intuition says isis is town based on that, though i think she is one the few personalities with enough verve to take me on as scum head-to-head d1.
as for dunnstral, i am still learning more about him and can go either way on his L-1 vote. its brazen, but it is also in keeping earlier suspicion he expressed on my slot. its brazenness i'd usually consider slightly-town, but in this case see it as more in keeping with character than anything else.
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shockingly, i am most suspect of klick's/notscience's votes of me. i really hope the town isn't up against one or both of them as scum as we may be in trouble (especially if i am executed and not around to put them in place).
my dunnstral-vote was an attempt to find common ground with notscience and find out more information about dunnstral's slot, but given i actually have some genuine suspicions now, it's time to move on;
UNVOTE:
VOTE: klick
if i have time today, i'll cover some townreads and some PoE stuff. but felt it was more important to talk about my wagon first.
Can you stop acting like you're the big kid on the block and this dominant force? That only applies within your pre-arrenged group that all seemed to join this game together
Disagree on the reasoning for scumreading Klick. It's day 1, scum are more likely to adhere to a strict 'I think this person is mafia, so I won't vote with them' policy than town are. To an extent scum bus/you can be wrong on certain reads and that's not a reason to not vote certain people on day 1
Notscience shows this negative tell where right after I join the wagon is icky and they have to jump off it
I think they've had a lot of bad reactions to events this game in fact, so I'm fine with seeing them becoming not alive
VOTE: notscience
I'm lightly scumreading popopopo right now; not a lot to go on, and it's not related to any of my other reads. They kind of suck this game.- Dunnstral
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popopo is much more likely to be wagoned in my mind, and I want in on itIn post 665, notscience wrote:What changed your mind?- Dunnstral
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He should probably check his role pm again thenIn post 671, Isis wrote:notscience doesn't seem to know who the scumteam is.- Dunnstral
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Bad wagon
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In post 192, Galron wrote:
Good as scum as well. Be wary.In post 151, UnaBombaH wrote:I had to go and check why I think Dunn is a very good townplayer.
When areIn post 272, Galron wrote:
No process. They just look like the corner pieces rn.In post 261, Hoopla wrote:@galron
interesting. i saw your town reads post as i was rereading the thread and constructing mine. are you a D1 townhunter? please describe your process.
also, why is flippy town?
Flippy's townie on tone. And I like that he took a stance on Dunn.yougoing to take a stance on Dunn?- Dunnstral
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That's not a fair analysis of my playIn post 688, notscience wrote:all he’s done is complain that people are scumreading him- Dunnstral
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In post 531, Isis wrote:VOTE: Hoopla
Hoopla is who I'd most like to exile.
The way she describes her mens rea with respect having more doubts based on a previous town roll seems like the way mafia would describe the information rather than how town would, even though it's the same information. It's a little bit hard to explain and an intuition thing but it's come up more than one time. I wouldn't be too prideful to deadsheep her if wrong but she's very much front of the pack for me.In post 639, Isis wrote:These all sounds like delightful knickknacks I will be happy to deadsheep but can't really view as town-indicative in their own right from Hoopla.In post 671, Isis wrote:I'm caught up.
Hoopla is still acting scummy and I don't want to vote townier people just to be trendy.
I strongly agree with her townread on bob though and found the bob burst town indicative, especially calibrated for bob.
notscience is such a horrible wagon I'm a little nauseated.
notscience doesn't seem to know who the scumteam is.
This read seems particularly lame from IsisIn post 677, Isis wrote:I resent being townread by Hoopla- Dunnstral
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Demonstrate it.In post 711, Bellaphant wrote:The stuff about dun here is demonstrably false?- Dunnstral
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Well, you're wrong or misrepresenting what has happened. Here are the votes I've made:In post 711, Bellaphant wrote:Apart from the Bob 1 post weirdness (which like...could actually be scum distancing) he's voted me, which got up to a wagon of...3, and hoops, which got to e-2. How are these brave pushes?
Spoiler:
bob3141 -> UnaBombaH -> Bellaphant -> Hoopla -> notscience -> popopopopopopo -> notscience- Dunnstral
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In post 746, Isis wrote:Dunnstral "bus" Hoopla so I can clear you plsSpoiler:- Dunnstral
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You said it was demonstrably false; it's notIn post 747, Bellaphant wrote:Dun, I know? I corrected myself in the next post. Are you making a point or just being pointlessly negative? Coz I can engage with a point....- Dunnstral
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Yes. And you're saying it's demonstratable otherwise, but you won't be able to do so.In post 750, Bellaphant wrote:Are you arguing that you have?- Dunnstral
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Yes, because it's the kind of attack on a townread that I expect from scum, and I don't think you have good justification to be doing soIn post 752, Bellaphant wrote:Do you think my view on your votes is scummy? Why?- Dunnstral
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I have a theoryIn post 779, Galron wrote:Why is everyone voting for Hoopla if she isn't scummy?- Dunnstral
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https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11826688In post 799, Isis wrote:She hasn't claimed, you're better than that Dunnstral
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11867739
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11867889 - Dunnstral
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- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral
- Dunnstral