Mini Normal 2153: Post-game

[Hoopla]

hello people of the town.

i am well rested; full of coffee, left-over dal, and wild ideas.

the scum don't stand a chance.

VOTE: bob - easy target.

[Hoopla]

I drew town, and intend to share my ice cream with whoever else did as well.

Hoops? Klick?

i made a couple of unwise rulings in my attempt to lead the noble and venerable town bloc last game; gypyx and renaissance/klick slipped through the cracks early. we weren't punished for it due to excellent night play, but i intend to conduct a more rigorous screening this time around.

i think i'll be able to read you well enough, though.

[Hoopla]

however and thrilled to resume my obvtown ways.

the wheels of justice turn slowly but grind fine.

you best be ready to answer the call when i come knocking.

[Hoopla]

@unabombah

fear not. the application process to the town bloc will be tougher than ever. at the very least, i want photo ID and a thousand word essay extolling the virtues of purity, and why crime doesn't pay.

[Hoopla]

i love how active our mod is.

he is primed, poised, and ready to document all our glorious wagons.

~~

sadly, dunnstral's vote has left a sour taste in my mouth.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: dunnstral

[Hoopla]

slap a vote down somewhere, klick.

don't be shy.

[Hoopla]

We've arrived at opposite conclusions about Dunnstral's opening though, Hoopla. What's not to like? I enjoyed his most recent post to me.

ol' hoopla can sense when a wagon goes off. a slight pungent sourness... if you pay attention.

why jump on bob on page three citing 'scummy posts', when bob has posted just a single word in the game? why not jump on bob in previous posts?

why wait until now?

Spoiler: i'll tell you why

opportunism

[Hoopla]

I got a weird vibe from Bob and that's ..fine?

how exactly?

[Hoopla]

Bobs entrance was fine, he grabbed second post then dipped. Alpha and town to boot

mmm yes, that is a power move.

[Hoopla]

It's just that I've always been a metalhead first, and everything else second,

such is the way of the finns.

[Hoopla]

I can vibe with this list as a starting point. Can we add Dunn?

you asked me how i came to the opposite conclusion on dunn.

but you never explained your perspective. why is he town?

[Hoopla]

Hoops what do you think of your loyal knight sir nippyflips? Has he defected to the rabble rousers?

too early to say.

underwhelming signal-to-noise ratio so far; lots of chatter.

scum are probably laughing it up, loving the relaxed atmosphere.

[Hoopla]

*shrug*

UNVOTE:
VOTE: galron

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Hoopla

cheeky!

[Hoopla]

I don't get the hoopla vote either, but I learned last game about not trusting Isis.

i suspect isis/pops is trying to razz me for old times sake.

playground horseplay type stuff.

[Hoopla]

i must say, this is a rather sedate start to the game. i usually have at least three or four obvtowns by now. notscience and unabombah are OK i guess. but i haven't observed town-bloc quality towning yet.

let the purity of your true essence spring forth, fellow townsfolk.

[Hoopla]

@mod

prod this sujimichi character

[Hoopla]

Woahhhhh same second post. It didn't even inform me that you'd posted before me

i noticed that. wild stuff!

[Hoopla]

I dunno, there's not much to work with.

lets brute force this game into the mafiascum history books.

Spoiler: here is the recipe:

vote galron

[Hoopla]

and that out of our two low hanging fruit wagons

half the game is low hanging fruit. it's a low hanging fruit salad up in here.

~~

a question for you bellaphant:

historically, how good have you been at reading klick and vice versa?

[Hoopla]

on tone, i like bellaphant for town, and will be relying on her klick-expertise early in the piece. please keep me posted.

unabombah has continued his fervent energy from last game and is my other top pick for town. i haven't seen enough from notscience yet to extend the invitation.

i like isis' capricious nature, though that's probably a personality thing rather than anything alignment related.

~~

TOWN BLOC FIRST DRAFT

(no scum allowed this time):

hoopla (president)
bellaphant
unabombah

to be continued...

[Hoopla]

@galron

interesting. i saw your town reads post as i was rereading the thread and constructing mine. are you a D1 townhunter? please describe your process.

also, why is flippy town?

[Hoopla]

@una

is notscience scum? i don't want to believe it. i think it would break my heart.

[Hoopla]

i'm suitably convinced with galron's progression into this game. i was concerned his early game coolness was an act. it turns out he is actually just cool.

UNVOTE:

bella, we might have to jump ship...

[Hoopla]

idk i think bob is mislynch bait, im not feeling it

sometimes mislynch bait is exactly what you need to catch a big fish, so to speak.

...

but most of the time it is just a red herring.

this direction is better:

VOTE: geraintm

[Hoopla]

And mind you, everyone, I'm not a HUGE fan of "townblocs" in general, and I would be scolding Hoopla for this one as well (like I did last game ), but I think this is just how they play as town and they need it either for solving or entertainment purposes.
Me being a part of this bloc of Hoopla this time around is neither here nor there.

I WILL be calling out Hoopla if I smell scum on that bloc, but so far they have at least been more reserved with how they include people in.
And one good example of them doing better than what I was afraid of - notscience not being included in their latest townreads just because they have a "solid townread" on Hoopla.
I'm not saying they've outright become a scumread for me, but they are definitely teetering on the edge..

^una steadfastly resisting the town bloc invitation.

okay

okay

, we get it. you're town. there's no need to convince us further with this coy display.

just relax and accept the rightful privilege afforded to the town bloc elite.

[Hoopla]

i assumed the town bloc posting was ironic. ludicrous to try and form a town bloc 10 pages into a game

there have been whispers of your name being brought up for town bloc consideration.

don't blow it with careless comments like that.

[Hoopla]

@bella, @klick

i still want both of you to give me an honest appraisal regarding your accuracy of reading each other's alignment.

in the event one of you flips town, how much weight should your opinion of the other's alignment be given?

[Hoopla]

to the people calling the geraintm "ass": is this stemming from reading geraintm behaviourally or distrusting the constituents of the wagon itself?

geraintm (5): UnaBombaH, Galron, popopopopopopo, Hoopla, bob3141

this actually looks a solid wagon to me and i wouldn't be surprised if it's all town.

it's certainly much better than the early bob wagon, which i think was definitely tarnished - the stench coming from the backend of the wagon: isis/dunnstral/flippy - all characters jumping on late that i have as slightly scummy or neutral.

~~

to those who haven't played with me before, please let it be known that i am deadly serious in be willing to execute anyone on D1 not a townread. my vote carries with it the weight of willing to pull to trigger, come what may.

oftentimes a wagon itself is enough to eke out an indication of towniness (either behaviourally from the target, or scum getting too eager to push along a false lead; like we've witnessed with bob's wagon). so far, this wagon looks solid to me, and i haven't seen anything behaviourally to give off town vibes from geraintm; though i will look into him more the longer he remains a candidate.

[Hoopla]

I don’t think poops done anything town so far hoops, what in particular are you seeing

the main post i developed a townleaning from was his 84, where he took klick to task for his entrance to the game. i think i liked it because klick isn't an easy target, and i too am seeing red re: klick. when i witness someone seeing the game through the same lens as me early - though through independent means - it's often a good sign.

why do you think geraintm is town?

[Hoopla]

This is awkward hoopla. The post you think gives him town cred.for, I thought was bobbins....

why was it bobbins?

well, first explain to me what bobbins is, because i like this word and want to steal it for future use.

then explain why it was bobbins.

[Hoopla]

i should also mention;

ok, should i get on this bob wagon?

idk i think bob is mislynch bait, im not feeling it

this sequence is good. i think town is more likely to show restraint/concern here given a bob-vote could have easily been justified by popo-scum (assuming bob is town).

i find with low-effort players like bob, the best way to read them is from the collective interaction others have with them, rather than anything they do/say themself. if they start receiving a disproportionate level of suspicion relative to what their behaviour ought to realistically warrant, it's an indication there is scum taking advantage of an easy target.

its become apparent to me that bob's wagon seemed likely scum-pushed in the end.

[Hoopla]

well geez, I get falsley listed as being on the wagon, popopo gets a flipping medal

actually, you are right. you were only on bob up until page 5.

this wagon was a lot more fluid, and actually had

more

neutral/scum involvement in it than i remembered; notscience and klick were the latest adopters of the bob-wagon - both slots i am wary of.

dunnstral was the first bob vote i remember disliking, flippy being more neutral. but the fact that notscience and klick got on there too. literally the last four voters of bob were suss.

how coincidental.

more likely, it was scum-pushed.

[Hoopla]

Isis what do you think of this game's universal scumread on me without any interest in pulling the trigger on a eagon

be careful what you wish for!

[Hoopla]

Okay, then what do you think about it Hoopla?
Because I think it's rly weird

you are a very good player.

i'm nervous that i drew town with a bunch of passive townies afraid of taking on the big dogs of the game. there's only so much heavy lifting i can do, and my vote is currently hard at work.

i'll probably be relying on you/bella to shed light on each other's alignment throughout the game... or perhaps an unexpected town hero will step up and lead the way. sometimes it just takes one brave, convincing voice.

[Hoopla]

My thought was at least one scum are concerned that they wouldn't be able to get a real execute on me so they've decided to jump on the 'Klick is mildly scummy' wagon instead and let it build up to an execute tomorrow or D3

if scum are

that

concerned about town-you, that they feel they need to sew early seeds of doubt about you to build for a D2-D3 execute, wouldn't a more efficient method be just placating you today and NK you instead?

[Hoopla]

Of course I'd have to roll a 7 or above on a d10 when push comes to shove if I actually decided to pursue a D1 Hoopla lynch.

you wouldn't dare!

[Hoopla]

Who are the big dogs? Me, you, Klick, Una?

I don't think its entirely justified assuming all the vocal players are scummy and it feels way more paranoid than I expected. I guess it can kinda make sense what with the scum leaking in to the townbloc, but I kinda want @Klick to take a second look when sober.

yes, us four are probably the most dominant voices on the big dog spectrum. the fact we are fractured on our view of the gamestate is alarming to me also. i'm still reserving judgement on whether this is early game in accuracy (on my part or you lot) or whether i have reason to be paranoid.

i think i am still reeling; still shaking off pangs of PTSD from town-bloc'ing two scum last game. it's rare i am wrong on my declarative town rulings.

[Hoopla]

Replacement for Sujimichi replaces Sujimichi

*chef kiss*

[Hoopla]

i never knew i wanted replacement for sujimichi until now.

[Hoopla]

What I want most of all is a dunn wagon right now- would you be interested in partaking or sharing thoughts on his recent assertion about peoples reads changing based on his?

here is where we have commonground.

geraintm's wagon is at feverpitch. i can sense it. i can

feel

it. i don't want to abandon my post yet - especially given he has been quite responsive to pressure.

consider myself spiritually on the dunn wagon. i give it my stamp of approval.

[Hoopla]

*slaps roof of geraintm wagon*

yep, she's a beaut. so much town powering that wagon, you wouldn't know what to do with her. sad to see her go.

good job everyone, beautiful production!

UNVOTE:

[Hoopla]

VOTE: dunnstral

it's time

[Hoopla]

....drunk klick looks a lot more town than sober klick and I agree with a lot of what he's saying. Ugh.

please give me a detailed analysis of klick's drinking persona, so i can read said posts through the correct lens.

what kind of drunk is he?

giggly and playful? depressive? philosophical? reckless?

[Hoopla]

personally, i am high on life 24/7

but i have a lot of field expertise with alcohol vis à vis using it as a truth serum.

you'd never believe the sordid confessions, and juicy secrets people have revealed to me over the years.

perhaps i attract them or draw them into me, but i suspect it's simply that i have a safe enough presence that allows people to bare all.

[Hoopla]

those were the days

[Hoopla]

I remember playing with dun years back when I (and he) were fairly new and being impressed, so I guess I'm also reading the slot through 'this isn't what I expect'.

Klick is a cuddle sober, tbf. He's generally happy and giggly drunk, but I'm wondering if the wine got him out of his head enough to post more naturally.

does the fact that his tone changed to a more natural state when drunk suggest he is perhaps repressing something while sober...

perhaps some horrible secret.

...

perhaps some sick, twisted agenda?

[Hoopla]

This post seems pockety, but other than that I know I'm not cool. What in my progression led you to this?

you have a pleasant, economic way with words. at first i thought it was deliberate; an air you were putting on in response to your votes. i have since come to believe it is simply your way, and that your insights will be useful and worth digesting.

And going from hardcore on the geraintm wagon to hopping off two hours later seems odd. It's like I missed a chapter in a book. What happened in between other than me jumping off?

the dunnstral wagon is the hot new ticket at the moment.

believe me, you'll want to get in early before the seats fill up.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

UNVOTE: - I locked myself out of my apartment.

town bloc assemble!

is it coincidence? perhaps fate? two important town voices silenced and without a vote; drifting.

meanwhile, a sizzling new wagon opens up?

if this isn't fate, then i don't know what is.

[Hoopla]

Hoops you still haven’t really elaborated on what it is about me that’s bugging you this game

i wasn't being facetious when i said i have been rattled from last game. usually i don't make such large errors townbinning people.

i have been questioning my intuition more than usual this game. as a consequence, i've let extra levels of paranoia into my game; my read on you perhaps affected by that.

i like that we have found common ground, though. i suspect a scumlynch of a mutual read will help reestablish friendly relations.

[Hoopla]

That’s fair. The only reason I keep bringing it up was I felt like it was justified from klick but you hadn’t really brought it up much.

who are your top town reads at present?

[Hoopla]

I would say Dunn is capable of wolfing too-wolf-to-be-wolf. If anything that's probably from characteristics that get him scumread as both alignments compounding on characteristics that are actually expressions of a mafia alignment. But after subtracting the former I don't think he's too bad here.

that sounds like some very complicated algebra.

far over the head of a bloodthirsty simpleton like me.

[Hoopla]

now you are trying to razz me!

[Hoopla]

oh hoh hoho! looks like while the cat's away, the mice will play.

allow me a quick catchup and to defend myself against this fevered mob.

[Hoopla]

I think I've only seen Hoopla's scumgame once, and it was years ago and I replaced in as her buddy. Last game (*takes shot*) Hoopla said she follows a similar formula every time D1,

i haven't been scum in years, so i genuinely don't know how i'd play it these days. historically, i have had a fierce devotion to mimicking my town game as much as possible which won me plaudits for over-the-top levels of deception, and has fuelled deep-seated paranoia about me that still echoes through towns to this very day.

my town game has been developing in a more nuanced direction in recent times. i view the point of the day 1 as a day of content creation and will favour utility-executing as a way to manually steer the town into a more balanced/cohesive gamestate rich with information. towns that are mindful of this and have a good balance of voices tend to win. for the most part, the execution rate of scum D1 is barely above random, and when towns do execute scum D1, it doesn't improve town's overall winrate - perhaps because the town has less associative tells (but i degress). my point is, the outcome of the D1 execution is largely irrelevant; it's more about the process, as a day rich with information (one that is parse-able for analysis on future days) is a big factor in towns winning.

observers of my play have noted a more deliberate/calculated tone to my posts. this is a fair assessment, because i have been. i dislike going into my processes too much, because revealing why i do some of the things i do defeats the purpose of them, but for the sake of transparency; the role i tend to play on D1 depends on how the rest of the town is acting, and i alter my behaviour in a way to influence a town operating in a gamestate conducive to town success. for example;

- in games with many big egos and town leaders, i tend to lay lower, reward good cases with votes, sheep accurate scumhunters, and offer left-field observations that haven't been seen.
- in games rich with spammers/lurkers, i try to shame the spammers into quieting down and bring lurkers into the discussion to balance the flow of the game

this game specifically was a largely chatty affair with little to no early game information to work off. my attempts to stimulate a more chaotic gamestate and wagon with more ferocity was a deliberate adjustment in response to the early-game malaise that was lingering in town hearts. i should also note, i do have another reason for why i have played in this way, but i would rather hang onto it for now, and intend to switch focus to a more analytic bent in my next post and give some more detailed thoughts on what i am seeing.

as a quick observation: the rapid acceleration of my wagon (when the possibility of a hoopla-wagon was wafting through the air) should give the town a clue as to my alignment.

[Hoopla]

to pick up from my last post, i'm aware that i am an opaque player that is largely unreadable early in games. over time, i have since come to accept that fact about myself and lean into it. i do as i please, and hope the town can see the game is going in the right direction. that usually quells paranoia about my play for a while, but i acknowledge in games where we are frequently mis-executing or things are going off the rails i should definitely be a suspect. this puts pressure on me to be correct early in games, or to do enough d1/d2 to scare scum into NK'ing me.

on to some analysis:

fans of my work may have seen in recent times i have been honing my system of "Holistic Abstracts and Heuristic Analytics" (or H.A.H.A for short). this is a special blend of large-scale data analysis (mostly of d1 play, as this is the cleanest data to work with) and with a healthy sprinkling of intuitive magic to guide it all. i am still weighting how valuable each metric is (this is where intuition plays a role), but here are a couple of observations i've noted that are currently influencing my reads;

a useful metric with enough statistical significance i've seen is that of early game wagons. for this data set, i've collected the alignment of every player that has received a wagon of four players within the first 150 posts of games. these numbers were chosen as they symbolically represent the tipping point of a wagon to "something serious", and by ~150 posts or so, we should be out of the RVS stage of the game. these are fluid concepts that vary from game to game (which is why i use the largest sample size i can), but it's a useful data-backed illumination of a tell i often see early in games.

over the last 5 years of 3:10 mini normals:

town

/

scum

ratio of players receiving four votes before 150 game-posts:

86.3%

/

13.7%

.

scum make up ~23% of the town's population D1, so this is a very significant observation and why i think bob is likely town. to explain why this is the case, i hypothesise that the earlier the game is, the more any vote can be justified. and when any vote can be justified, townies will more or less randomly vote/wagon any player, whereas there are 3 scum-votes that are more likely to land on town by virtue of ignoring teammates more often than random. scum are much willing to place the third or fourth vote on a town player for the sake of wagoning than on a partner because any vote can be justified - it's not damning to ignore a teammate's early wagon when it is currently "random". this discrepancy expresses itself in the numbers. townies are much more likely to be the target of an early wagon.

this is also why i pivoted to a dunnstral vote in 52. he was the fourth voter on the wagon citing "scummy posts", when bob had posted just once. that was the vote that made me think that this wagon had landed on town, and this belief grew throughout the game as more players jumped on bob.

~~

folks who played with me in mini 2146 would also remember i revealed some large scale D1 lurking data. i'm relying on this less this game now that is has been exposed, as i suspect players like klick, una and notscience would act in a deliberate way to subvert this, and definitely inform scumbuddies to stay active in any of them are indeed scum. so, i am not considering lurking data in any real way, but a useful corollary i didn't reveal last game is voting frequency to post-count frequency. town vote-hop on d1 at much higher rates than scum, and though i am still in the process of completing this data-set, it appears significant.

this was an influential reason in why i powered and sat on the geraintm wagon as much as i did. he was a classic candidate of scum finding a vote acceptable enough to be unchallenged, then sitting on it without much reevaluation. it takes effort to be constantly reevaluating the gamestate as scum and to find convincing reasons for your opinions to change. this is why we see scum sit on hivemind-approved votes longer than town, as switching votes incurs the risk of receiving additional attention/critique of your play.

players like klick and notscience seem vote-hoppy-happy anyhow, so i don't extend the tell to capable, aware players like them, but i suspect this tell is meaningful for a player like geraintm and why i still suspect him.

we have had a lot of useful wagons so far; one on galron that i haven't spoken about yet comes to mind. realistically, i'd prefer to speak about the d1 wagons as a whole in conjunction with alignment flips (if i make it that far), and will next switch to some behavioural things and PoE work i have been doing behind the scenes.

i will also say i am flustered and annoyed that i am being forced into collating all my views so early in the game. i prefer to do that after churning up the game-thread for information, but it appears this is the way the dice have fallen this game, and i will give the town as much as i can to work with, come what may.

[Hoopla]

These all sounds like delightful knickknacks I will be happy to deadsheep but can't really view as town-indicative in their own right from Hoopla.

totally understandable.

i humbly accept my role as blueprint developer for mid-game sheep to follow.

i have more to say about others, but a question to you while i get on with things;

are you not at least a little suspicious of the rapid nature of my wagon? when do you ever see those land on scum? or do you suspect significant bussing in a hoopla-scum universe?

[Hoopla]

to any concerned townies,

this is another thing i rarely mention about my play, but feel it may shed light on my actions.

being a dominant force in a game is a blessing and a curse. i try to use my influence as town in the most productive and +EV way as i can. it is hard to for town to see the fruits of my labour this early, but another useful byproduct that comes of it, is it forces literally every player to take a stance on me, or interact with me in some way. given i only know my own alignment as town on d1, i deduce everyone's alignment in relation to my own.

without getting to MD-theoretical, deliberate obfuscation and radically shifting the gamestate's flow is something i encourage to force scum to continually have to adjust, and quite often it shakes out some obvtowns in the process. if i am going to be unreadable anyhow, i may as well selfishly discombobulate the gamestate to better improve my reads. in my eyes, there is nothing to be lost here, and only gains information-wise.

~~

intuitively, i am highly suspicious of klick for the reason Sujimichi documented in 599;

I don't think I'm going to be able to accurately read Hoopla until like Day 3 at best. Until then, Hoopla is a consistently good influence on the gamestate and probably won't be getting executed today.

The current events are interesting given Klick's opinion here.

from my perspective, it is clear there was some opportunism in the early-mid part of my wagon. given klick appears to understand the purpose of my play, his vote is highly suspicious. occam's razor: is it more likely he actually thinks i am scum here, or is he seizing the moment when whispers of hoopla suspicion started floating about? i think the latter. and as a bonus moment of suspicion; calling for bellaphant to join the wagon in 536. isn't she your suspect?

i think klick is manipulating bellaphant turn-of-heart on his alignment to power this wagon, whereas if he is actually town, he would be wary of forming a coalition with a suspect.

i still townread bellaphant on tone, and partially find her town in relation to klick's scumminess. i think the interplay between one another has been too nuanced for them to be both scum together, so i am still townreading her and accept her vote, partially sad, yet also optimistic that she can see the light.

notscience's vote also seemed opportunistic and of all the players voting me, i'd like him to explain his vote. as recently as 518 notscience ruled me as town;

Gera, una (but I’m a little annoyed I’m going to have to argue against his scumread me all game again), klick, you (?), flippy

then he jumps on my wagon in 553, abandoning the dunnstral wagon (who he actually suspects!) to power mine. explain yourself notscience.

una is another vote i can kinda see as being OK - it is at least consistent with how his view on me has evolved throughout the game, and i am still townreading him. i mean, there has to be at least a couple of confused townies voting me; he is probably one of them.

the only two votes i haven't talked about has been the head of the wagon and the caboose; isis and dunnstral. neither ping me overtly one way or another. i see motivations either way.

isis has displayed a healthy/natural amount of paranoia for my slot that i usually come to expect from town players who have dealt with me in the past. i oftentimes find scum will just placate me or attack me in an over-the-top way without any subtlety (for those who read or were in mini 2146 see how pranadevil-scum treated me in that game). my intuition says isis is town based on that, though i think she is one the few personalities with enough verve to take me on as scum head-to-head d1.

as for dunnstral, i am still learning more about him and can go either way on his L-1 vote. its brazen, but it is also in keeping earlier suspicion he expressed on my slot. its brazenness i'd usually consider slightly-town, but in this case see it as more in keeping with character than anything else.

~~

shockingly, i am most suspect of klick's/notscience's votes of me. i really hope the town isn't up against one or both of them as scum as we may be in trouble (especially if i am executed and not around to put them in place).

my dunnstral-vote was an attempt to find common ground with notscience and find out more information about dunnstral's slot, but given i actually have some genuine suspicions now, it's time to move on;

UNVOTE:
VOTE: klick

if i have time today, i'll cover some townreads and some PoE stuff. but felt it was more important to talk about my wagon first.

[Hoopla]

Because I noticed the same things they did how it feels like you’re the only one out of step and I get you do need that healthy distance in case someone is scum but you have such a polar opposite view of the game state it’s really weird. I also low key think you saw that making me work for that townread made me townread klick slot even harder last game and could be attempting to pull it off here, but the basic gist was “Dunn wagon wasn’t going anywhere, I wanted pressure but all of a sudden more pressure than I intended”

for what it's worth, i don't think our views of the gamestate between me and you/una/klick are polar opposite. we do have some overlap. having said that, if there were scum amongst us, why do you expect it to be the one with independent thoughts, as opposed to someone mimicking the de facto narrative? an easier position for a you/una/klick type character as scum to take is to agree with the orthodoxy, especially if it isn't threatening to yourself/teammates.

as far as i can tell, the main point of difference between me and the rest of the big dogs, has been me calling bob town and geraintm as scum.

now that you've seen my reasoning on both, does that change your opinion?

[Hoopla]

The logic makes sense but re-bob- it literally just says you’re townreading him due to the game state and not how he’s been and it seems weirdly in sync with your self defense of similar logic iirc?

And I see where you’re going with gera but I really think it’s a gera tell not a scumtell

i'll cover my town reads in due time; still organising those thoughts.

but to stimulate some conversation; how do you view bob's burst of posts across late page 25/early 26? that read as a flurry of town energy to me.

[Hoopla]

the town bloc has been disbanded due to lack of interest from una/bella in working with me. i hope one day to win them over and make the scum sweat.

a collation of my reads + some commentary on slots i haven't spoke much about, presented in a much more traditional format - a spectrum;

GOOD PEOPLE OF THE TOWN

hoopla

bella

una

bob

isis

- speculative intuitive read based on how they've interacted with me

NEUTRAL

dunnstral

- 3rd/4th vote on the first early town wagon have higher amounts of scum. this is the main data point against him, but have been warming to his recent postings.

sujimichi

- a mystery to me, but have found their posts fresh and amusing. i want to keep them around for comedic relief and town morale until i learn more about them.

popopo

- had him as town early based on one post, but has since faded. i'm generally okay with reading people based off singular posts that read well, but at a certain point, body of work becomes more important, and popo has a feeling of active lurking about him.

flippy

- breezes in and out of the game in ways i feel suspicious of. but he was like this as town last game.

SCUMMY

galron

- i keep changing my mind about this slot, but if there's scum off my wagon - he's one of them. challenged me in post 502, then didn't jump on the hoopla bandwagon when it was taking off, despite throwing shade there. has been quiet/only posted about sujimichi's slot during my speedwagon. looks as if he's taken the approach of contributing to the whispers of hoopla-paranoia, then sitting back watching it happen to preempt getting blood on his hands from my mis-execute.

notscience
geraintm
klick

~~

i haven't looked too in depth at associations of the slots i'm suspicious of. i'm sure there are probably some combos within it that are unlikely.

but this is roughly where i'm at.

[Hoopla]

I resent being townread by Hoopla

your sassy jibes are unbecoming, but i'll allow it.

[Hoopla]

@galron

who are your top scumreads at the moment?

[Hoopla]

Sorry, hoops, I don't know if I'm just stupid but I'm still not seeing the reason for declaring that ass-wagon town. It kind of feels like youve made two very long, very similar posts and not ..addressed some of the main issues.

i called it a potentially all-town wagon, which i believed at the time.

i've become less sure of popo and galron since then.

[Hoopla]

Can you explain why you thought those slots were town? Like, I was literally only strongly town reading Una there....

so,

you are asking me to time travel,


embody a previous version of myself,



just so i can relay to you a grainy snapshot of a moment long since passed?

[Hoopla]

apologies friends,

have been undergoing a significant transformative experience in my personal life recently. i'm back (mostly), and will get around to answering questions as soon i can - i know there are a few lined up for me.

[Hoopla]

@hoops...yes, I do expect you to do exactly that? Remembering things is only difficult if it was a made up comment, surely. Like....you declared a bobbins wagon town anf when I ask you to explain, you reply back with waffle about time travel??

a confession;

i dislike talking about my personal life here, so this is hard to say.

it has been my real life birthday recently, and as celebration i will often enter a transcendental meditative state through the use of specific portals. i didn't realise i would be gone so long - and i attempted to post while i was in an altered state. this was a mistake because it clouded my judgement and added extra layers of obfuscation to a game where we are trying to peel back the layers. in such states i literally don't have any longterm memory, so my comment - while facetious - was also true.

this is a cerebral game that lasts a long time. a challenging commitment when pockets of time come up in real life when i am not capable of cerebral thought processes.

i don't recommend reading into this alignment-wise either way. this is more just to apologise, and explain myself for that comment. i'll attempt to answer it sincerely.

[Hoopla]

I was on my phone so I couldn't investigate thoroughly.

I feel trolled.

VOTE: Hoopla

it was a sincere post.

[Hoopla]

@bella

when i declared the wagon of 371 town, it was this;

geraintm (5): UnaBombaH, Galron, popopopopopopo, Hoopla, bob3141

una was amongst my town bloc i had established at the time, and bob i believed was town based on early-wagon science. his behaviour since then has solidified it; though this hadn't happened yet.

in this point of the game, i had town-read popo of a single post; his pressuring and interrogation of klick; not an easy target. this wasn't an amazing reason to townbin popo, but early in the game i will townbin people off single posts if i detect a higher than random chance if i see it coming from town. you'll note at the time in post 368 i was even considering town-bloc'ing him - i wanted to see his reaction to that. i have since reduced my town-read on him due to body-of-work problems.

as for galron; i remember warming to the idea that he was town in post 261, after he revealed his town-list, which largely aligned with how i was seeing the game.

~~

i hope this answers your question, bella.

[Hoopla]

next questions;

I think a claim from hoopla would be good given all the people that scumread her.

i am happy to claim if the town agrees this is the best way forward.

You go on to cite myself and notty as the two most likely suspects on your wagon. I largely began the call to wagon you (although Isis voted you first), and notty hopped on towards the end but specifically has made the same observation as you here that your wagon took off fast, and has been the most hesitant to continue on with your wagon.

So how does this stand as reasoning from your point of view? What scum caused the wagon to rapidly accelerate? Because if it was town that caused it, that has no bearing on your alignment.

not sure. i'm still reevaluating the best way to find scum on d1. historically, i never used to try and would favour utility-executing weaker/negative EV players, to give the town a better chance on future days. i believe(d?) in that process.

recently, i've been trying to improve on d1 and actually scumhunt. i have trouble believing in d1 accuracy, but i am trying. it isn't a game if people don't try. i have observed it is easiest to read people in relationship to my own alignment (since that is the only one i know).

the speed of my wagon was so fast, i assumed it must have scum involvement. where on the wagon specifically i can't say - it could be anywhere. that is why i attempted to break down the votes behaviourally (as documented in post 653).

[Hoopla]

Then why did you find it odd/suspicious in the first place when you weren't on the same page with myself and notty?

i found it odd because i have been nursing paranoid theories of you and/or notscience being scum. too much of an overlap on reads d1 makes me suspect there is scum towing a party line & blending in, rather than legitimately trying to solve the game.

[Hoopla]

screw it, for the sake of moving the game on, i am just going to claim rather than await consent.

i was hoping i wouldn't have to, but it's clear my play has been poor enough this game, that i don't really have an option.

i am an even-night friendly neighbour.

i've been playing in a way that i was hoping was balanced enough to avoid the execution and the night kill, but in the end i have done neither due to my schizophrenic behaviour. please forgive the complete mismanagement of my role. this isn't how i was hoping things would go.

[Hoopla]

I'm proud of me, that's probably a scum fakeclaim, but mechanically correct to leave alive here.

sadly, i am being sincere.

If you're town I'm sorry I pushed a fun role to L-1

all good old friend.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla what is your opinion of Dunnstral the snowglobe??

on the brink of my townreads.

probably wouldn't want to execute there any more.

[Hoopla]

What do you like about Dunnudun?

i don't know. an intuitive town energy?

i feel i've lost complete confidence in my ability to play this game.

i wouldn't rely on my opinions until i figure out how to restore some of my verve. will probably just be sheeping my solid town reads for the rest of this day phase.

[Hoopla]

I would be completely fine with executing Hoopla anyway
If her wagon falls apart I'll switch to popopopopopopo but I do think if we give up now we'll just be executing her D3 anyway

This basically mirrors my thoughts..I'm concerned about the level of... construction in hoops' posts (how hard is it to say you were stoned and made a few weird posts?) But like...*shrug*

for me it is a major challenge.

i hope you understand.

[Hoopla]

i feel klick would be a challenging project for the town to embark on d1.

more realistic; geraintm

a suitable rival for popo.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: geraintm

[Hoopla]

Why does popo need a rival?

information purposes.

i want to see a popo/geraintm battle to the death.

[Hoopla]

^very amusing.

though, in my recent outing with flippy, i found he responded better to quips with a

little

more passive-aggressive sass - very hard to get the right balance.

he's a slippery one.

[Hoopla]

oh, i'm sad to see klick go.

i enjoyed playing with them.

dunnstral is prickly and somewhat abrasive, but it all seemed in good fun to me.

hope to see you again!

[Hoopla]

i suppose we wait until the popo replacement jumps in so we can get a claim. i'm okay with his execution - just think geraintm is a better option.

this game is in a precarious position of stalling or entering a fractured/chaotic gamestate.

i think we desperately need an execution to give the thread a chance to breathe. tomorrow is a new day. new alignment info, new players + 48 hours of rest is exactly what we need to start fresh.

[Hoopla]

^chilling insight into the mind of lurking scum.

i'm actually going to hammer. we need a flip, and this is as good as any. usually this would carry more risk, but i highly doubt the mod has put two confirmable roles into the one setup. i don't think there's any role popo could claim that i'd unequivocally believe.

no guts no glory.

WHAM!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: popopo

[Hoopla]

you say that as if you know what popo is about to flip.

[Hoopla]

i am a sucker for mint choc chip.

[Hoopla]

i just finished a game where a watcher claimed on d1 and i was soooo close to hammering (it was a mafia watcher). we ended up waiting until d3 to clean up the mess despite its obviousness.

so, no. the only role i'd believe is a mason/IC/FN type role. everything else is fakeable and i judge a roleclaim by the vibe/play the wifom game.

[Hoopla]

there is such a thing as town morale, you know. i'd rather not kill the flow of the game by waiting for two replacements only to end up hammering this slot anyway.

now we only need one replacement, and they can catch up overnight. we start tomorrow fresh with a full roster. you can question me for a potential -EV play, but i think waiting is worse from a number of perspectives.

[Hoopla]

hmm, on the wagon; una/sujimichi

off it; notscience/flippy

[Hoopla]

who's your pick if popo flips scum?

[Hoopla]

salutations, fellow townspeople!

i hope everybody slept well and is feeling rejuvinated. i see it seems ol' hoopla must have slept in and you've all begun without me. no matter, i'll join the chatter posthaste.

i must say, while i was tossing and turning in bed last night, i had these awful dreams i was going to be knocked off. i awoke drenched in sweat; confused i was alive, though thankful.

i fear mafia are going to try and frame ol' hoopla on d3 (perhaps with a roleblock tonight?) and there is simply nothing i can do but watch my painful death unfold in slow-mo. the sickos!

i agree with the townie who commented on this being a weird kill. this does imply a comfortable scumteam, kicking back sipping lemonade while the town looks in all the wrong places.

i'll be around today to reorganize my reads... but where is my coffee?

[Hoopla]

I refuse to believe you thought you’d be the kill hoops

i thought it was a possibility - depended on what power the scumteam has.

[Hoopla]

in the interest of working my way back into the game, i am going to do something shocking.

my intuition tells me i may have been wrong on klick - especially upon seeing porken's entry into the game. given i was reading bella as town in relationship to klick's scumminess, i have come to believe i was actually reading them backwards.

VOTE: bella

one of the lemonade-sipping scumbuckets.

more to come

...

[Hoopla]

So every one who voted pops in that awful wagon can you go over why you voted him. And what benifit you thought lynching a lurker would do for town?

i did it out of sheer bravado.

and because i didn't want to wait for a replacement.

[Hoopla]

Announcement: Bellaphant is on V/LA until 21/7/2020 12:00:00 GMT+0.

quick, lets get her while she's away!

[Hoopla]

is it possible i have been wrong yet again with my d1 town bloc declarations?

i bravely called una and bella unequivocally town and wrote them off. now they are both starting to seep into the forefront of my mind. no wonder mafia didn't kill me last night, when i have been such a loyal ally.

[Hoopla]

And just to be frank - I am not going to get any friendly visits from anyone this game.
Even trying would be a waste.
I keep my door closed tight.

are you softclaiming some kind of power here...?

[Hoopla]

@isis

can you make a tiered list of your reads?

i feel you chime in a lot, but i don't really know where you stand on most players.

[Hoopla]

another post in which i reevaluate my reads.

after reading geraintm's posts on d2, i think he may actually be town. his looking for popo-related connections appears earnest, and when i reflect on why i thought he was scum in the first place... i believe those feelings were inadequate. i was too heavily relying on early-wagon science (the first wagon-pivot after the RVS wagon often being scum). i had this idea in my head, and wasn't really reading his posts as closely as i should.

based on the way the back half of yesterday went, i believe all our major wagons were town.

scum really were sitting back sipping lemonade it seems.

bella/notscience/una is probably where i'm looking today, and i need to reevaluate isis. i believe i liked her attempts of reading me yesterday, citing a nice balance of paranoia that was nuanced and hard to fake - but i believe her paranoia has tipped over into being uncritically expressed as fact now.

lazy or suspicious?

tbc...

[Hoopla]

You can try but good luck with it

ol' hoops doesn't have the social cachet to be calling the shots today. you know it, i know it, we all do. that's why you aren't afraid of throwing out such cheek, so openly... so flagrantly. you don't expect an uprising coming your way.

all i hope is that the wise members of this beloved town can see the forest for the trees.

enjoy your lemonade while it lasts.

[Hoopla]

I did the same thing to dunn yesterday

mmm yes, and look how it worked out for him...

[Hoopla]

^a sparkling expression of creativity.

perhaps you are town after all.

[Hoopla]

Sujimichi, do you mind curating a reads list for me?

[Hoopla]

oh true.

@ replacement for sujimichi, can you break out your ouija board and attempt to channel the spirit of sujimichi to relay their thoughts?

[Hoopla]

we have too many players sitting back and not voting; not taking stances.

this concerns me.

[Hoopla]

i still like bob for town. his latest burst has been refreshing. due to tone? perhaps. or perhaps i just like that someone is going toe-to-toe with the cheeky notscience. please keep it up.

i am too scared to lead the charge on notscience (don't want to get called "bucko"), so will be requiring a strong town hero to make the first move. will it be you, bob?

[Hoopla]

actually, this will do for now;

UNVOTE:
VOTE: unabombah

my bella vote looked very pointless.

[Hoopla]

What I'm saying, is I'm not sure I want to play with town!Hoopla more if this is how poorly they can perform.

while it must be said that this hasn't been ol' hoops best outing, i hope this is just theatrical embellishment.

there's no excuse for my apathy, and i definitely feel i've been a net negative for the town after the first week of play. i'm still trying to pinpoint why this happens to me. is it boredom? real-life distractions? either way, maintaining the fire for a full game is quite a challenging enterprise. perhaps i need a change of gamestyle to something more sustainable. or perhaps i just need to accept i can only play one or two games a year before burning out.

anyway, so this isn't an entire post lamenting the muse abandoning me at the 11th hour, here's a bonus hot take;

Like unfortunately falsely doing so is even more plainly cheating, so truthfully doing so as more minor cheating usually conftowns the player doing it, so una might just be ughtown here I guess. annoying

i came to the opposite conclusion as this, and find una's over-the-top antics unbelievable.

the melodrama seems put on... especially for a finn.

[Hoopla]

Not Mafia's entrance exudes town. Mafia usually don't have the bravado to use so many colors.

i agree with sujimichi. that was a bold, cocky town play.

perhaps such a powerful move should be banned in future games lest we end up with too many conf-town players.

[Hoopla]

a contributing factor to the malaise lingering in the air;

bella, geraintm, bob all haven't voted after four days of d2 being open. bella's away, so fair enough, but i think these other two players should step up and throw down some votes.

[Hoopla]

hmm, it seems the tides have turned and it looks like a bella vs. sujimichi battle.

bella is back and has found her voice.

sujimichi's hilarity is slowly waning. thanks for the memories.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: sujimichi

[Hoopla]

i tell you what.

this not_mafia certainly is a character.

does he usually sustain this for an entire game or are we still in act 1?

[Hoopla]

We could wagon Galron tbh

to be fair - and please do excuse ol' hoops chiming in from the background - this slot has been criminally underscrutinised.

[Hoopla]

Hoops you’ve been lurking in the background whenever you aren’t the main wagon so it’s a touch hypocritical

this is a charge i can't deny.

i am simply lost this game, and to pretend i am not would be disingenuous. there's a part of me that is kinda just twiddling my thumbs, waiting to get NK'ed/confirmed/framed, so i know where i stand.

i'm waiting for the whispers about my slot to go away so i can become an influential voice once more.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: galron

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, why am I a better vote than RFS right now?

i get the feeling the bellaphant wagon is going to collapse.

so, i want to give those on that wagon plenty of good options to pursue when it dissipates.

[Hoopla]

we really shoulda given galron a proper wagoning ages ago.

[Hoopla]

But you see Hoopla, I'm onto your game here.
Last day you went on gera to make others go to popopo.
It's the same here.
You jumped on Galron to make sure one of the three already existing wagons will definitely go through.
Meaning that my read on bob/bella is correct, and they are both town.

i feel like half the town is reading the game from the perspective that i am scum, and basing other reads/wagon choices today off that. you & isis are especially guilty of this.

i'm in no position to throw stones because i have been abysmal for 80% of this game, but it all strikes me as lazy justifications for whatever pushes you think will fly.

"hoopla wants this, so lets do

that

" - very cheeky play if you're scum. lazy if you're town. you are allowed to think for yourself, you know.

[Hoopla]

I’m not going to lie your presence on the wagons has deterred me a bit hoops

Idk.

would you like me to unvote for a while so you feel comfortable voting? i promise to give you first dibs of the current wagons before i tarnish any with my stank.

here;

UNVOTE:

[Hoopla]

on reflection, i suppose sujimichi is the best direction of what's currently possible.

@notscience

permission to vote suji?

[Hoopla]

Why the sudden change?

he isn't as hilarious as he used to be.

we have standards to uphold.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: sujimichi

[Hoopla]

VOTE: bella

cheeky rascal!

[Hoopla]

RfS and Bella should both relocate to another wagon within Bella/RfS/Galron, and then we can all have a talk. Agreed?

this sounds like a very convoluted negotiation.

[Hoopla]

are we doing that thing where we wait until the 11th hour before compromising on someone random?

the lack of urgency is troubling. are we way off and scum are just sitting back laughing? perhaps they're sipping lemonade in glee again. wouldn't surprise me.

[Hoopla]

Please vote Galron

i never imagined deep in day 2 that a clown with hypnotic swinging udders would be calling the shots, but here we are.

i'll vote galron as a compromise - him over sujimichi is much of a muchness as far as i'm concerned, but i'd rather notscience/geraintm/isis vote first before i abandon my post. bella isn't going through, so they can move on.

it also seems that sujimichi/bella's votes on bob are unlikely to go through. so, i think they ought to compromise before me as well.

[Hoopla]

this is a strange stalemate. the two leading wagons have townreads on one another, and are voting elsewhere. this is rare. usually out of self preservation one or both wagonees will vote the other option.

it almost makes me believe this is a town/town wagon battle with the way this game has ground to a halt.

[Hoopla]

i still hold a candle to my geraintm/notscience theories. these are leftfield opinions, but the way this day has gone, it makes me feel like we're way off.

we're at the point of compromising, though. i know both of those choices won't get up. i'd just like to see a glimmer of hope elsewhere. the recent reticence infecting town spirit has left me weary & wary.

[Hoopla]

Can you explain more why you think this game state means town/town wagons?

when things grind to a standstill it implies scum are comfortable with the current gamestate. the leading candidates not voting each other is also an anomaly i'm trying to comprehend.

what do you make of it?

[Hoopla]

all her thoughts are simulated

people often say this about my posts.

such a pristine and elegant use of words surely couldn't come from a human brain; they must simulated, or dreamt up from some AI-influenced think tank.

i'm blushing, but i will take the compliment.

[Hoopla]

It’s interesting hoops hasn’t been pushing it as much. She hates end of day wagons.

i have been solemnly lamenting this all too predictable blueprint unfolding.

believe me, it's exhausting having to always be the one to energise the town and convince people to compromise.

anyhow, i don't agree with this reignition of bob's wagon, so...

UNVOTE:
VOTE: galron

[Hoopla]

I wasn't visited by any friendly neighbors last night
VOTE: Hoopla
Why won't you love me

hah, i prefer expressing my love to you in other ways.

i targeted bob last night. he can (hopefully) confirm my visit.

[Hoopla]

also agree that hammer was awful. a claim perhaps may have saved galron - at the very least we could have learnt his N1 action.

[Hoopla]

No visit

shit, i knew this would happen.

ever since i didn't die night 1 i was dreading this scenario. scum have a roleblocker - this much is true. i've never been in a game with a friendly neighbour before, so i asked the mod overnight whether i can be blocked. apparently so.

i know nobody will believe me. my play has been awful this game, but i have been set up by a devious scumteam who have carefully engineered this scenario.

please allow me some time to give final reads before i perish.

[Hoopla]

Your role being able to be blocked does not mean the mod confirmed scum role blocker to you, it's disengenuos to suggest otherwise

the mod didn't confirm a scum roleblocker, just that i could be blocked.

town wouldn't block me though. that's absurd.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: hoopla

farewell friends!

[Hoopla]

a hearty congratulations to the town for an amusing game. and a knowing nod of approval to my cheeky teammates who carried this game.

it seemed at times the walls were closing in, and our scumteam would become just another statistic; cruelly savaged by the unforgiving hand of PoE. but una and suji pulled a rabbit out of the hat after i was caught early.

as much as you can say it's best to treat my slot as a guilty-child and solve from there while i'm alive, it's easier said than done when you don't have the confirmed flip. i imagine not everyone can compartmentalise the game like isis can. the town would have fared better if i was exiled D1, but thems the breaks.

i have similar philosophical gripes to isis about closed normal setups these days. were they ever better in the past? maybe. it seems these days people are much more sensitive to maintaining an observable balance of winrates between town and scum, though in order to achieve this, it requires an arsenal of town power that will inevitably lead to a non-trivial percentage of games being won by PoE if the stars align for town's power. it's exhausting enough committing to a scumgame for weeks at a time even without the shrinking pathways to victory that inevitably manifest in the mid-to-late game.

i don't know what is to be done about it. the problem (if it is one) seems fundamental to the structure; a slew of innocents can crop up from setup-spec late in the game and box scum into a no-win possibility. we narrowly avoided such a fate in this game, but i (again) agree with isis - it is unfortunately too useful to not try to wifom the setup, especially if you are familiar with the design philosphy of the NRG.

phasing out investigates doesn't solve the problem. town will still need 3-5 PR's to win enough games to be close to 50/50, and so, whatever roles get favoured to take the place of roles to be perceived to be overpowered, will simply become confirmed via setup spec as a new metagame emerges. that is something often overlooked; most of a PR's value is that is can stop you being executed once claimed and confirm you from setup spec. anything else you manage to do with your power is a bonus.

cops seem to have been deemed non-kosher by current iterations of the NRG, but the problems of its PoE-inducing unfairness hasn't gone away. it just manifests in a different way.

then, to counter towns wifom'ing the setup, once in a blue moon the NRG will throw a curveball setup to subvert expectations, but it generally just leads to a town loss after towns follow the logic of "there's no way a setup would have two millers, or four investigatives" etc. this occasional subversion of expectations doesn't seem to prevent towns not following setup spec in most games, so all this really does is punish the occasional town who are just playing the odds.

these are gripes far too ingrained to really do anything about in my eyes. so, my solution wouldn't be to try to "fix" normals, but rather to shift one's own expectations and acknowledge that every now and again, you'll play as scum game that through no fault of your own will be a forced loss. try to have fun, and play well despite the possibility of an inescapable shafting.

or just play an open game

[Hoopla]

also, a big thank you to frederick for the attentive modding. you ran things very smoothly and handled the replacements well!

[Hoopla]

I liked our team very much.
Lots of talk in there, and we were mainly on the same page with basically everything.
It's not as much of a chore to be scum when you are playing with teammates who are willing to put in the effort and share their opinions and tactics.

yes, it certainly makes the game far more enjoyable when you have like-minded teammates to share the burden of being scum;)