Large Normal 238 | Weiqi, Baduk, Go | Endgame
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ok so starting out, i want to pull out the votes that titus placed in the last couple days, especially from when she still thought she had a chance of convincing people she was town and getting people on her side, starting after the malcolm flip:
1) 5062 she votes DV, reaching out to tene and VP
2) 5069 after I ask her why she didn't vote eyes as her top scumread and someone who already had votes, she switches to eyes
3) 5261 she votes Nero, reaching out to VP. she also names scorpious, eyes, and DV as her top scumreads
4) 5609 she votes frog, reaching out to eyes and VP. VP is extremely pocketed by this point
5) 5839 she votes DV, reaching out to me. at the time i thought she could be trying to feed me a scum partner to get me on her side, but now i think that's unlikely
6) 6070 she votes VP after the cape wagon forms, telling math not to get distracted. this is still the scummiest post in the game.
7) 6088 she votes cape after i call her out for her previous vote. after this i think she knows she's dead and has given up trying to get people on her side for the most part. i think the votes after this point are less meaningful, but for the sake of completion, they are: VP to end the day, then next day there's Cape, then frog, then self.
so, from all of that, i don't think the DV votes are partner votes. the frog, cape, and eyes votes all easily could be. it's also worth noting that she reached out to tene and eyes with her votes at one point, but each of those were when she was also reaching out to VP. still could be meaningful
(also, as an aside, 6709 is one of the clearer examples of her trying to turn me and april against math and get us on her side. she was more focused on pocketing april since I wasn't budging, but she tried with me a few times too. april is town)
i think frog and cape are the most likely scum. it could easily both, but it's possible that one is town. purely going off movement and the way titus voted, i would lean towards cape. cape also voted titus to help end the day and i think there was likely scum in that group. but purely going off play, i would lean towards frog. i think he hasn't really been trying to solve for a while now, and even when he did show up, he just ranted about how my meta read was bad and still gave no attempt to solve. that just sounds like scum who thinks they were caught for the wrong reasons but doesn't want to give out associations.
so most likely scenario imo is that it's both frog and cape. assuming we're hunting for 3, the third could be any of eyes, galron, tene, scorp. i would lean towards eyes or galron, then tene and scorp. really the only thing in galron's favor is the yeet clear. if there's a traitor, it could be anyone, so i don't think it's that worth hunting for them from my pov.
eyes is probably either honest about his role (as either alignment) or is maf with tene. i think it would be pretty risky as scum eyes with town tene to out a result without asking for a claim first. the fact that he didn't ask for claims at all makes me lean towards thinking he does have the role. i don't have strong feelings at this time about whether his role makes him more likely to be town or maf. currently assuming he's more likely to be town, and fine to focus on frog/cape for now, but still keeping him in mind as a possible partner.
if it's frog and not cape, i think it probably has to be tene. my heart doesn't want this one to be true. third is probably eyes, but could be galron. probably not scorp.
if it's cape and not frog, scorp is more likely. eyes is still possible but less likely bc i think tene is also less likely here. third probably galron? idk im not super sold on that team
if it's neither cape or frog, we're in trouble lol, but it's probably eyes/tene with... scorp? maybe galron? maybe a traitor?
if it's none of cape/frog/eyes... it isn't. there's no way. like 1% chance. but it would prob have to be tene, scorp, and galron. which i don't think even pair that well.- fireisredsir
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i think one of titus' partners voted her at the end of day there. i don't think it's dragons, so if it's not cape, it's most likely you. not 100% on that but eh. i kinda just want to see the flip today and work from there, but math wanted me to try to full solve. i think flipping either frog or cape today will tell us a lot and i can reread things again to help sort some more- fireisredsir
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In post 1045, Datisi wrote:(before you ask, the tell is that if someone is mostly lurking, and when they post they're mostly shitposting without trying to appear townie, they're more likely town. this does not apply to players like not_mafia.
it also does not necessarily apply to scorpious, because i've seen fua say he always plays like this, and i don't have the knowledge to know whether he'd play like this as scum, which is why it's only weakly town!indicative)- fireisredsir
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yea to me the only thing that really gives me pause on tene is that the wagon movement d1 and d2 does fit on some level with a titus/tene/cape/frog team. i don't feel very inclined to bet anything on that though considering ive been townreading tene's recent play, and some of the interactions look pretty not-partner-y- fireisredsir
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personally i think titus' original plan was to live to endgame but that didn't work out. the key i guess is finding where exactly that plan shifted to "set the game state up to be in a favorable position once im gone". I'd guess somewhere around 6088- fireisredsir
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not due to role, due to playstyle. from my pov at least, i don't think there's any scum left who could lead town. if she's gone town will solve this, and I think we're most of the way there.
from your pov i get how that's not a given, since me or april could be the one intended to lead town and go deep. but i know it's not me, and im confident enough in april being town to think it isn't them either, so that's why i think titus wanted to be the one- fireisredsir
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idk. nothing is ever 100%. but id say close enough to it that im not currently considering it as a possibility (ive done that enough already) and am perfectly comfortable with that. after we flip frog or cape we can talk about it more tomorrow if we're both still here. which we probably won't be, but still- fireisredsir
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i don't think there's any reasonable chance that there isn't scum between frog and cape. there's good reasons for each of them. i think there's a good chance it's both of them. we have to choose one. i think letting math pick is a fine option because then at least we know the direction isn't being led by scum- fireisredsir
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the reason is not due to setup spec and you should know that. i think math is just saying that at least if he is town we get some extra info out of it that we wouldn't get out of a frog town flipIn post 7363, tenebrousluminary wrote:I mean, never. We can flip players for being scum. We can't flip players to prove other players anymore. We burned those "proving" April and we can see how that turned out. You'll never get my vote with an argument based on neighbor spec. The Titus/Cape case is the only reason I am even considering this.- fireisredsir
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its more about titus' play around you than your play around titusIn post 7388, Cape90 wrote:
okay lmaoIn post 7358, fireisredsir wrote:my gut says frog, but based on titus play i agree cape makes sense.i hope that wasn't intentionally set up by her, but it's hard to make that call
and chances are, it's both of them anyway
VOTE: Cape
If you were asking why I gone on Titus on Titus day, it really isn't that hard to see when you look at my posts from aforementioned previous day
6199, 6201, 6206.
See what you gotta do, you gotta add it up- fireisredsir
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im not townreading deas due to those two posts and i didn't ever say i was, not sure where you got thatIn post 7390, Cape90 wrote:Talk to me about Deas, also I find it absolutely hilarious that you are seriously considering my harsh words toward Datisi to be w/w but for some reason 3067/3072 is enough?- fireisredsir
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what the. this was rvs. and i do not think that frog starting useless threads of conversation is very AIIn post 7386, Cape90 wrote:Since your scumread on fire, have you looked back on this?- fireisredsir
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how did you miss that vp claimedIn post 7401, Cape90 wrote:Anyways, since I am at E-2 should I claim? I am just asking because IDK if hardclaiming counts as something I shouldn't do since VPB never claimed their modifier thing- fireisredsir
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huh? im explaining my thought process for why i think frog scum is still viable. ive said all day that i want one of frog/cape/eyes, and after the eyes claim i slightly prefer frog or cape. im voting with you on cape, and if you want cape, i don't plan to change thatIn post 7426, MathBlade wrote:
Are you the new April?In post 7423, fireisredsir wrote:for the resistance point, i think it could easily be frog+galron + someone who decided early that they wanted to bus
Start off agreeing then try to convince me otherwise?
Like what April did with Titus?
im just having a hard time getting over the fact that frog isn't even trying this day phase- fireisredsir
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what? i was talking about a possible world where cape is town and frog is scum. if it's cape and frog both scum, which i think is most likely, then we're totally fineIn post 7432, MathBlade wrote:
This again has too many people if you think no traitor and Cape scumIn post 7423, fireisredsir wrote:for the resistance point, i think it could easily be frog+galron + someone who decided early that they wanted to bus
There would be two others. Not three.
I think you think there’s a traitor or you’re lying scum or something
Help me out here
This isn’t the first time- fireisredsir
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the only scenarios that are concerning for me rn are the ones where one of frog or cape is town. if we are in that world, im worried about the possibility of us ending up hitting the wrong one. that's the most dangerous possible scenario from my pov, and so that's the one that im thinking about
if frog and cape are both scum, then we're flipping a scum today, and we will almost definitely win. that's why im putting my energy towards considering the other possibilities, bc if it is just frog+cape then we've basically already won imo lol- fireisredsir
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i mean a vote on frog is also spiritually with me, since i would be happy to vote there too. tbh id just feel really bad if we abandon math's push here and end up being wrongIn post 7448, tenebrousluminary wrote:I can't say the prospect of voting with April and not with Math and my strongest townread makes me feel great.- fireisredsir
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you won't be next. if you're switching based on that, don't worry, you don't need toIn post 7442, April Ludgate wrote:VOTE: Frog
Yeah, I’m gonna go here because I feel like Cape flips, no matter what they flip, I’d be next.
I don’t want Galron or myself fogging up tomorrow when we should have gotten Frog.
So for me, I like Frog -> Cape- fireisredsir
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ok fine i really wanted to greed for another result, but i probably die here tonight anyway. and if everyone else has the same poe as me then we can solve easier, everyone is getting distracted. plus (i only realized this recently, cause I'm DUMB) if we flip a scum here and there's a traitor my role will be useless
im a traffic analyzer. so i can check if people have private communications.
n1: save the dragons, does NOT have communications
n2: titus, HAS communications
n3: April ludgate, does NOT have communications
n4: deasvail, does NOT have communications
so the only way dragons/april/deas are maf is if they're traitors. or, technically it could be deas+titus as the only groupscum and then like 3 traitors but wtf is that setup. i think we shouldn't ever elim in that group of 3 and should just hunt the groupscum instead. that's why im only considering maf outside of that group.
UNVOTE: so we can discuss and so that people smarter than me can setup spec- fireisredsir
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i wasn't planning to claim at that point so i have no valid reason to be sus of eyes in thread. if I'm just like "there's no way eyes is telling the truth!!" i think that makes it pretty obvious im PR lmao
my claim is pretty clearly supported by my posting this game, but you're right it will prob just be confirmed when I die tonight- fireisredsir
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yea I think that's very likely, with galron traitorIn post 7498, tenebrousluminary wrote:I think all scum are probably in Cape frog eyes galron.- fireisredsir
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this was in response to math saying to elim cape, if that's unclearIn post 7500, fireisredsir wrote:yea im fine with that. i still slightly prefer frog but cape is alright. i want to see how people respond to this though first- fireisredsir
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sureIn post 7503, MathBlade wrote:
If Galron is traitor can I get a told you so earlier?In post 7501, fireisredsir wrote:
yea I think that's very likely, with galron traitorIn post 7498, tenebrousluminary wrote:I think all scum are probably in Cape frog eyes galron.- fireisredsir
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i think he's been spot on after the titus flip, actually. we'll see when the flips happen but i think his solve is the best of anyone left who is uninformedIn post 7509, MathBlade wrote:Tbh your defense of April is why I am sus of you.
Boon usually doesn’t miss three times in a row- fireisredsir
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