yes exactly! where are the freaking kills. this only reinforced my suspicion this morning that something we are not seeing is happening here. I've been saying it all game, but we are so focused on the night game, we are not thinking about day play here. I'm looking at people I see who are scummy and it's not matching up with what is happening at nights. That's a huge red flag that I'm concerned about.In post 4391, Bell wrote:Q: what is the scum team doing with their no kill thingy. I can’t keep track or make every variation of possibilities.
KTaNE [game over!]
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gonna reiterate, if you have knowledge that helps solve this mess, please share it. I feel like we are blundering around and you're kind of toying with people why?In post 4404, Titus wrote:Let's live and let die.
I'll be back in a couple days.
For now, I have some knowledge and a plan.
I'm also starting to get concerned that someone in the PRs are lying. Andante and Titus both claiming info roles now? Plus all the dead bodies, plus my role? Something stinks.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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If this was my plan, why am I not opening today trying to cut your head off? It's clearly counterfactual to how I'm even playing here. If I was scum, I have no reason to even consider you're town...and in fact, that just makes my lim more likely.In post 4552, Dwlee99 wrote:
Did you ignore this paragraphIn post 4333, Dwlee99 wrote:2.) VP was the one with the most reason to explode the bomb there. He was both best positioned in terms of being townread the most, and as someone with two defuses already under his belt he was almost certainly going to flipped at some point, meaning if he can take out two or three townies in exchange for his life before he gets flipped it would be extremely worth it, especially since one of them was the doctor.
Do you think I'd be afraid to 1v1 you?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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I find andres' doc saves weird and unlikely to be kill targets unless scum are really incompetent, but fair enough on the count. Where is the other kill? If you're saying I'm scum, that just speaks more to the point I'm making.In post 4555, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:In post 4551, VP Baltar wrote:
yes exactly!In post 4391, Bell wrote:Q: what is the scum team doing with their no kill thingy. I can’t keep track or make every variation of possibilities.where are the freaking kills.this only reinforced my suspicion this morning that something we are not seeing is happening here. I've been saying it all game, but we are so focused on the night game, we are not thinking about day play here. I'm looking at people I see who are scummy and it's not matching up with what is happening at nights. That's a huge red flag that I'm concerned about.Ifyou're town, scum should only have 2 NKs total. One was Greeting. The other can be explained away by Andres' protection.
What do you mean "where are the kills" (plural)?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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I have a thought on this, but I can't really elaborate on it without full claiming.In post 4410, Andante wrote:notice how VP hasn’t gone back to being defuser… scum team knows he explodes if he goes back, so why wouldn’t town!vp go back to defusing???YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Can you explain this, or...?In post 4422, Cephrir wrote:either im missing something important or there is guaranteed to be scum in the pt last night
it troubles me that pooky didn't already say thisYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Three protectives seems OP?In post 4560, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
Maybe there's aIn post 4558, VP Baltar wrote:I find andres' doc saves weird and unlikely to be kill targets unless scum are really incompetent, but fair enough on the count. Where is the other kill? If you're saying I'm scum, that just speaks more to the point I'm making.thirdprotective lol
More seriously, maybe scum were roleblocked or maybe they're saving the third kill
More importantly, I don't think the lack of NKs should be that surprising from your POV, and I think it's a possible slip
Could be roleblock I suppose, but also seems to fall into OP territory given how many PRs are already flipped.
What we know about scum so far is they have some kind of switching ability, and they were informed about something. So yeah, it doesn't make fucking sense from my perspective at all. Or if you believe there is a third protective/RB, then you should think scum have more power, possibly to fuck with experts. Even if scum had something like a role cop, I don't see how it counters something like three protectives.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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I hinted my PR way back. It's more defensive than anything, so I have nothing to lose just playing like VT.In post 4562, Dwlee99 wrote:Also I'm very surprised you're claiming PR here cause I don't know if you've really been playing like a PRYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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This is very dumb. Believe what you want. I have like 8 more pages to catch up on, so let me do that. I'm not going to argue this point with you.In post 4564, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:In post 4555, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:In post 4551, VP Baltar wrote:
yes exactly!In post 4391, Bell wrote:Q: what is the scum team doing with their no kill thingy. I can’t keep track or make every variation of possibilities.where are the freaking kills.this only reinforced my suspicion this morning that something we are not seeing is happening here. I've been saying it all game, but we are so focused on the night game, we are not thinking about day play here. I'm looking at people I see who are scummy and it's not matching up with what is happening at nights. That's a huge red flag that I'm concerned about.Ifyou're town, scum should only have 2 NKs total. One was Greeting. The other can be explained away by Andres' protection.
What do you mean "where are the kills" (plural)?
To be clear, the slip is that you (VP Baltar) know there are 2 missing NKs.In post 4560, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
Maybe there's aIn post 4558, VP Baltar wrote:I find andres' doc saves weird and unlikely to be kill targets unless scum are really incompetent, but fair enough on the count. Where is the other kill? If you're saying I'm scum, that just speaks more to the point I'm making.thirdprotective lol
More seriously, maybe scum were roleblocked or maybe they're saving the third kill
More importantly, I don't think the lack of NKs should be that surprising from your POV, and I think it's a possible slip
There can only be 2 missing NKs if you're scum.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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if there are three protectives, it means scum's odds of winning by elims would be TERRIBLE. So the mod would essentially be forcing them into a situation where they have to win by defusals...which seems extremely unlikely because town can just nuke every bomb from here to eternity if they ever SUSPECT scum have defused. Look at me and how scum are benefiting from that WIFOM right now.In post 4567, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
I don't really know about balance.In post 4563, VP Baltar wrote:
Three protectives seems OP?In post 4560, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
Maybe there's aIn post 4558, VP Baltar wrote:I find andres' doc saves weird and unlikely to be kill targets unless scum are really incompetent, but fair enough on the count. Where is the other kill? If you're saying I'm scum, that just speaks more to the point I'm making.thirdprotective lol
More seriously, maybe scum were roleblocked or maybe they're saving the third kill
More importantly, I don't think the lack of NKs should be that surprising from your POV, and I think it's a possible slip
Could be roleblock I suppose, but also seems to fall into OP territory given how many PRs are already flipped.
What we know about scum so far is they have some kind of switching ability, and they were informed about something. So yeah, it doesn't make fucking sense from my perspective at all. Or if you believe there is a third protective/RB, then you should think scum have more power, possibly to fuck with experts. Even if scum had something like a role cop, I don't see how it counters something like three protectives.
The protectives that have flipped don't seem to be able to protect the bomb defuser.
Which means that once we hit 3 defusals (where we're at now), the protectives would've been pretty useless... so it doesn't seem that out of balance to me.
What you're saying makes no sense, and you don't have to be a balance expert to even see that.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Yeah, because of the way I am playing the day. If I was scum intent on killing you and strange as my final acts, I have no reason to open the day expressing my own doubt of that. I just double barrel you. I can shit post with the best of them.In post 4562, Dwlee99 wrote:ATP you're very unlikely to win it if you 1v1d me.
Sadly, your terrible wall is so tinfoil, it makes me suspect even more that you could be town. No scum is going to open the day with their case being "VP wished andres happy birthday, and he was townread before bomb, therefore, scum!"
that's about the worst case I've read in a long time and only a townie wraps that in aluminum to say they've caught the whole scum team.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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no clue. Maybe scum are creating enough wifom to get through the VP and dwlee kills and then are going to have kills and start blowing up bombs to accelerate the game. I bet the numbers reflect that if dwlee and I are dead, and then scum start blowing up bombs with kills every night, they win pretty quickly.In post 4571, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Okay so where do you think the kills went?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Why? Greeting and andante both claimed PRs on like D2In post 4577, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:If the plan was to stockpile kills, then the Greeting kill N3 is pretty weirdYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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This conversation is dumb though. You're asking me to explain why scum aren't killing when your viewpoint is I'm scum and therefore scum have like many more NKs. So why aren't scum killing if I'm scum? If scum had that many kills and I had two defusals, they'd be laughing to the bank and killing away stacking bodies, not trying to hide and keep me alive.
Pedit - @ csfYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Yeah, I would. I'd be laughing at all you dorks for letting me defuse two bombs and there'd be bodies to prove it.In post 4585, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:yea im sure scum you would be blazing away with the machine guns and making it super obvious you are scum
you have convinced me
Like if I'm scum, do I believe town is going to let me defuse more bombs? What's the play?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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If I'm scum with 2 defusals, I would have already poisoned the entire well for the town, so who cares? In fact, me flipping just makes defusals almost impossible for town to trust in that world. So yeah.In post 4589, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:so you're saying if you're scum
and you have successful defusals
you would shoot up this town
to make it obvious that scum defused the bomb overnight?
HEAL: menaYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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This is an insane thing to say. If you want me to scum case you, I can read lots of your posts with bad intent.In post 4599, Dwlee99 wrote:I'm pretty sure VP townreads me because he is literally factionally informed I'm town but okay
I'm trying to right this game state and willing to risk my lim to do it because I think if someone doesn't correct course, we are headed to a very bad game state.
You should take a step back and think about what I would actually gain from approaching the game this way as scum (nothing), and then help me lim mistyx.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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I already would have had two defusals before there was a risk, yeah? This makes no sense.In post 4609, Dwlee99 wrote:Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Scum start the game with 1 kill.In post 4633, Dwlee99 wrote:
I don't follow what makes no sense about itIn post 4625, VP Baltar wrote:
I already would have had two defusals before there was a risk, yeah? This makes no sense.In post 4609, Dwlee99 wrote:Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?
I defuse N1.
Scum have 2 kills, kill N1.
I defuse N2.
Scum have 2 kills. Kill N2.
Town ZOMG VP IS SCUM! Lim VP.
Scum kill N3, town worried rest of game about defusals, never let defusals happen.
As opposed to what are you proposing? Scum have like 3 NKs or something they are sitting on? For what reason? To keep me alive when I was always going to get limmed at some point for having two defusals?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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This is scum right here and exactly what I'm saying scum are doing.In post 4641, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:just from a risk mitigation standpoint shouldn't we just flip VPB
if he's town then mafia are nowhere close to winning and we kill dwlee tommYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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You really this dense as town?In post 4636, Dwlee99 wrote:It's day 5 and you're still alive?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Do you think what I'm saying or what you're saying is the more likely outcome? Which furthers scum win cons more?In post 4646, Dwlee99 wrote:
You're arguing that my argument doesn't make sense cause you'd get limmed day three but it's day five what am I missingIn post 4645, VP Baltar wrote:
You really this dense as town?In post 4636, Dwlee99 wrote:It's day 5 and you're still alive?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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In a scum me world, why wouldn't I just lim you first and then try to get mistyx? A bird in hand etc.In post 4668, Dwlee99 wrote:If you lim mistyx and then me you could
The simpler answer is I'm town. Starting to think you're scum with mistyx and and that's why you're so dead set on killing me today. If you were town, you'd have similar worries to me about the game state.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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This isn't a 9p game and doesn't factor in the fact scum can get multiple kills in a phase.In post 4669, Dwlee99 wrote:Two kill example in a 8:1 9p cause I don't feel like doing multiple scum odds:
Chance of limming scum each day assuming haven't limmed correctly yet:
(Kill two at start, then none):
1/9, 1/7, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, scum win
Kill two at end:
1/9, 1/8, 1/7, 1/5, 1/3, scum win
Note the 1/8 chance of limming correctly vs 1/4 (math is more complicated than this but shows they're not equivalent EV)YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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This is you citing the rule? Like wtf? That says nothing about scum abilities. What are you talking about?
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I've already demonstrated its not terrible though, based upon what we have seen with how the scum can mess with the bomb PTs.In post 4691, Bell wrote:I don’t think anyone made a mistake with the bomb and I think the scum team blew up the doc and this argument is terrible and remains terrible.
Dwlee thinks the mod is a liar....which is actually silly. So we can lim dwlee then, but I'm telling you that fmpov, something weird is happening.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Vote dwlee.In post 4707, Enchant wrote:
IF DWLEE DIE WE STILL DISCOVER VP ALIGNMENT?In post 4705, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I tend to play for worst case scenario
if VPB is town, we can defuse 2 more times safely so we can block the mafia bomb kill twice.
if VPB is scum, we kinda can't afford to defuse anythingYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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I am merging the arguments that both you and csf are making a but at this point. You're both going on about hiding defusals and when to use NKs, but my point is that after two defusals REGARDLESS OF ALIGNMENT, town should never let me defuse again.In post 4658, Dwlee99 wrote:
So you ask what you'd gain as scum from not trying to lim meIn post 4608, VP Baltar wrote:
This is an insane thing to say. If you want me to scum case you, I can read lots of your posts with bad intent.In post 4599, Dwlee99 wrote:I'm pretty sure VP townreads me because he is literally factionally informed I'm town but okay
I'm trying to right this game state and willing to risk my lim to do it because I think if someone doesn't correct course, we are headed to a very bad game state.
You should take a step back and think about what I would actually gain from approaching the game this way as scum (nothing), and then help me lim mistyx.
I point out if you are successful in evading a 1v1 with me that you don't get limmed and that you don't confirm that scum have 2 defusals towards their 4 defusal win con.In post 4609, Dwlee99 wrote:Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?
And now I have no fucking clue how what you're saying is relevant. What does any of this have to do with you positioning to try to lim mistyx instead of me? Nothing. There's no connection. I have no idea what you're even attempting to sayIn post 4635, VP Baltar wrote:
Scum start the game with 1 kill.In post 4633, Dwlee99 wrote:
I don't follow what makes no sense about itIn post 4625, VP Baltar wrote:
I already would have had two defusals before there was a risk, yeah? This makes no sense.In post 4609, Dwlee99 wrote:Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?
I defuse N1.
Scum have 2 kills, kill N1.
I defuse N2.
Scum have 2 kills. Kill N2.
Town ZOMG VP IS SCUM! Lim VP.
Scum kill N3, town worried rest of game about defusals, never let defusals happen.
As opposed to what are you proposing? Scum have like 3 NKs or something they are sitting on? For what reason? To keep me alive when I was always going to get limmed at some point for having two defusals?
Therefore, if I was scum, I'd just want to get people dead rather than limp along and not be doing anything useful for scum for several days. If I'm scum, I have already achieved above average toward the wincon, very little to gain by hiding kills etc. I don't see how this is actually confusing for you. You're being intentionally obtuse because you want to get me pissed off and having stupid arguments in thread over semantics like this.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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In post 4709, Dwlee99 wrote:
Okay but just flip scum instead? Also if I flipped scum that actually wouldn't tell you VP's alignmentIn post 4707, Enchant wrote:
AHAHHHAHHHAHAHAHhahhahHHHhBhHHBhahIn post 4705, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I tend to play for worst case scenario
if VPB is town, we can defuse 2 more times safely so we can block the mafia bomb kill twice.
if VPB is scum, we kinda can't afford to defuse anything
IF DWLEE DIE WE STILL DISCOVER VP ALIGNMENT?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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AHAHHHAHHHAHAHAHhahhahHHHhBhHHBhahIn post 4726, VP Baltar wrote:In post 4709, Dwlee99 wrote:
Okay but just flip scum instead? Also if I flipped scum that actually wouldn't tell you VP's alignmentIn post 4707, Enchant wrote:
IF DWLEE DIE WE STILL DISCOVER VP ALIGNMENT?In post 4705, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I tend to play for worst case scenario
if VPB is town, we can defuse 2 more times safely so we can block the mafia bomb kill twice.
if VPB is scum, we kinda can't afford to defuse anythingYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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WHAT THE FUCK AM I READINGIn post 4712, Dwlee99 wrote:Btw Datisi said it could be possible that there is a scum role that can blow up a bomb without being in the expert pt
I do not want to believe this because that would be fucking stupidYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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This is what I get for trying to trust my own reads and ability to play this stupid game.In post 4723, Enchant wrote:
Wow, you realised?In post 4721, VP Baltar wrote:
Vote dwlee.In post 4707, Enchant wrote:
IF DWLEE DIE WE STILL DISCOVER VP ALIGNMENT?In post 4705, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I tend to play for worst case scenario
if VPB is town, we can defuse 2 more times safely so we can block the mafia bomb kill twice.
if VPB is scum, we kinda can't afford to defuse anything
A FOOL. A FOOL.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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You're still talking about only math, which is not my strength, so I'll trust you, but kills are way more than that. Kills shape the game for scum. He'll, after N1 we had 3 people claiming PRs! One was a doc! Which do you think hurts scum chances more, letting that live or saving kills for a hypothetical end state?In post 4731, Dwlee99 wrote:
It's literally -EV for scum to use kills early and also would get you limmed easier. Why would I believe you would do something obviously umoptimal as scum? Do the math yourself and see that saving kills for later days increases scum win oddsIn post 4725, VP Baltar wrote:Therefore, if I was scum, I'd just want to get people dead rather than limp along and not be doing anything useful for scum for several days. If I'm scum, I have already achieved above average toward the wincon, very little to gain by hiding kills etc. I don't see how this is actually confusing for you. You're being intentionally obtuse because you want to get me pissed off and having stupid arguments in thread over semantics like this.
You're trying to argue semantics rather than the realities of the game in a world where you imagine I'm scum.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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He literally just told you it is possible! How this did not occur to you is wild afIn post 4732, Dwlee99 wrote:Honestly baltar if you're town then Datisi is hard trolling us and I want outYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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How is it unbalanced?In post 4740, Dwlee99 wrote:Yea but that is fucking troll idc if he is now telling me it's possible when I ask him if he did that it's literally evil and unbalanced as fuckYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Not if someone looks at the switches and actually thinks about it for 5 seconds. This is what I mean by being intentionally obtuseIn post 4742, Dwlee99 wrote:It's essentially 3 guaranteed scum mislims that's whyYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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1) if you're scum who want to kill ever, you need to kill the doc. Why would I as scum put a doc as a defuser to draw suspicion on myself rather than just kill them????In post 4738, Dwlee99 wrote:1.) The doc didn't need to be killed if scum weren't going to kill anyway, and also could be blown up (happened)
2.) The one kill that did go through was on someone who scumread you, exactly what you mean by "shaping gamestate"
3.) We don't know what scum informed knowledge is, but scum could know what PRs to be afraid of etc.
2) who hasn't scum read me, but yeah pretty fucking convenient that happens the night I'm about to get sussed hard.
3) how would scum know what PRs andante and greeting are?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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I doubt it would be unlimited. That would be brokenIn post 4749, Enchant wrote:If scum can blow up everything, why they won't do it AT FIRST NIGHT FOR 4 MISELIMS?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Yeah, and when strange didn't flip scum after looking the most obvious, you would rationally at least consider if another factor was in play. I'm speculating it is altering expert info, but if I am trusting my reads and not just blindly following the "correct" play, then I need to think about that.In post 4746, Dwlee99 wrote:
But then everyone goes "no way someone is scum in the group kill kill kill"In post 4745, VP Baltar wrote:
Not if someone looks at the switches and actually thinks about it for 5 seconds. This is what I mean by being intentionally obtuseIn post 4742, Dwlee99 wrote:It's essentially 3 guaranteed scum mislims that's why
Look at that game we just finished. Nero got all the town killed in the hood there because the "correct" play was that 1 of the 4 had to be scum. He made the game annoying as fuck screaming at town me for days on end, then I died, then he died. There are other factors there and I know you weren't there for that part of the game, but it was an unpleasant experience for me and I don't want to blindly follow what is the supposed right play without thinking about the mod mindset.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Frogsters ability allowed him to manipulate bomb outcomes for town.In post 4755, Enchant wrote:
How to ez win:In post 4752, VP Baltar wrote:
I doubt it would be unlimited. That would be brokenIn post 4749, Enchant wrote:If scum can blow up everything, why they won't do it AT FIRST NIGHT FOR 4 MISELIMS?
1. Force atleast one group of clear town experts on first day. Not really hard, just "refuse" to participate.
2. Make someone you dislike defuser.
3. Explode them.
4. Wow chain of 4 elims+5 blowed up.
And there's literally NO reason to make this ability "Expect for first night" or other shit. It's more easier for this ability to not exist.YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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This whole game seems to be built on wifom if you ask me.In post 4754, Dwlee99 wrote:But there was scum in that hood
Hoods are much more WIFOM though than something like this imoYOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Uh....is dwlee TMIing scum here?In post 4760, Dwlee99 wrote:Funniest world is that there is a scum role that can do what VP is describing but they used it N1 on catboi and VP is still scum here
How do you go from "that's too broken to exist" to "here is an even more tinfoil theory so I can still call VP scum!"YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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Can't be this weird as town, right?In post 4764, Enchant wrote:
Dwlee99 is scum?In post 4763, VP Baltar wrote: Uh....is dwlee TMIing scum here?
You sure?YOUR AD HERE- VP Baltar
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In post 4772, Mistyx wrote:you guys keep quickhammering while im catching up or getting into thread and then blaming me for doing nothing
like wow i only posted three times yesterday on easter!! oh no!!In post 4773, Dwlee99 wrote:Oh yea it was Easter, forgot about thatIn post 4774, Mistyx wrote:vp loltunneling me just makes me think he realized if he kills dwlee then he just goes down next so he's trying to push me in the way first to buy time
ShakespeareIn post 4775, Dwlee99 wrote:Well yeaYOUR AD HERE - VP Baltar
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