Have I seemed a likely NK target on any night since like, N1?In post 5291, Cephrir wrote:doesn't that act as a vig most of the timeIn post 5282, Menalque wrote:Non-consecutive night babysitter
why aren't you vigging anything
KTaNE [game over!]
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This is a crumbIn post 1671, Menalque wrote:largely for postgame credit i'm gonna call ~1 scum in {frogster, VP, andante, bell} for this thing"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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As it is exactly the same as this post: Subject: Micro 909: 09:12 (Game Over!)
the worst wrote:largely for postgame credit i'm gonna call ~1 scum in {emps,hh} for this thing
In post 87, JJJ wrote:I'm asking emps to place a real vote?
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If you flip me today, which would be exceptionally dumb given that again, my actions/play make considerably more sense from the lens of someone who has a PR and which I tied myself into a VERY specific claim for on D1 if I’m scum (which — why? Why would I do that especially after other protective claims? If scum I’d crumb multiple things and then not claim the protective when this many have flipped)In post 5302, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:VOTE: Mena
4 protectives with a backup protective in a game where scum dont even have 1 NK a night is yea no way."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I actually speculated upon frog flip that datisi leaned heavily towards making this a protective heavy PR game, but gating them upIn post 5280, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I doubt there are 4 protectives
If I have time over the weekend I can try to find the game I think might have inspired him, it’s kind of reminiscent of a mini-normal I think we played ages ago"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I don’t see how CSF’s claim comes from townIn post 5327, Cephrir wrote:csf doesn't counterclaim as scum here that's absurd
No NK outside of titus
No way scum tried to kill me when I’m this mislimmable
I know I was on andy and Andy makes sense as a NK target due to the PR claim
No reason for scum to try to conserve NKs (that we know they have) atp due to Baltar being outed and it being unlikely they can get the defuse wincon anymore"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Don’t think there’s really any way for me to jolt people into doing that without screaming at them, which I’m not willing to do so I guess just — work on your confbias in future games if you lim me today without looking back at my trajectory over the game"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Who did you think was an obvious N1 kill who wasn’t defuser?
At the time I was unsure if the game was stacked with protectives or not, so I chose not to target Andres because I was having doubts about if he was real after the fire!flip
So I decided to sit on someone I thought was town, and who I believed I’d be able to synergise well with later in the game, and who would always be a solid N1 kill for scum if town"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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How do the protectiveclaims sort themselves?In post 5350, Andante wrote:can we just lim misty and let the prot claims sort themselves out tonight? like, we all agree Misty is maf, so we just lim misty. that easy
Misty could be scum, but atp it should be basically confirmed that there’s scum in (me, CSF)
That’s a better % chance of hitting than flipping misty which is (2/9)"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I need to go back and count but p sure scum should have had 4 NKs throughout the game either way — either 1 from start, 2 from baltar, 1 from GL or 1 from two town defuses, no?
By the time that VPB posted that he knew he was likely going down, so I’m not putting a lot of stock in it as an actual slip, because I think scum were going for the 4 defuse wincon or at least leaving that open, which probably meant conserving some of the NKs from earlier on"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Oh, actually pooky is right, yeah
It’s (1/2) to flip in me/CSF
It’s (1/7) to flip misty
For any town player considering where to flip today
Unless, again, anyone has a good explanation for how CSF can be town with me and I don’t think there is one — the “scum we’re out of NKs” argument doesn’t add up for me with Baltar having defused twice already, where if scum had kept killing it would have been obvious very fast what was going on, and I think Baltar obviously didn’t want to die (based on play) instead of not caring (if it was just a matter of grab as many NKs from the defuses as possible)"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Because if misty is town, then it’s weird for scum you to derail that mislim into me when that then sets you up for dying tomorrow
Oh, but then again, I wonder if your ability to win the 1v1 based on claim becomes much weaker tomorrow because people would ask why you didn’t counterclaim immediately and then I become less viable as a mislim
Whereas misty will always be there with plenty of people wanting to kill her, so maybe it does make sense for scum!you"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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That was after everyone in the hood had claimed he was insanely town, and I came round to the “i think dats has stacked the game with protectives for most of town power” way of thinkingIn post 5369, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:But on D2 after fire flipped town, you *still* thought Andres was town???"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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THINK for a hot second
If misty!town — I’m not convinced of that, but if — then tomorrow is quite possibly lylo with a potential 1v1 happening where I know both that I’m town and that I probably lose said 1v1 which is GG
Does anyone really think that misty is getting away today through some magical leap? The only way misty isn’t limmed today is probably if we lim in me/CSF which then, again probably but this is why to not rush, nets a 100% scum lim tomorrow (if I go first today)"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Okay, but unfortunately there is a very good chance town loses if we don’t try to resolve some of this pre-lylo to work out what the best potential form of that would beIn post 5378, Bell wrote:
I wasn’t saying it was.In post 5374, Menalque wrote:Momentum is not a good thing in and of itself
If anything it’s just me being intellectually lazy and not wanting to have to deal with this madness and just defaulting to previous patterns. Because I can’t cope.
I want to go back and look at the SM flip again and what was happening around that
I also need to go through CSF again because she’s been one of my strongest TRs most of the game and I think the claim means she has to be scum but if GL is town then maybe scum are out of NKs and then JK can conbine with the babysit and the lack of NK"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Yes, I’m clearly doing this because misty is a N6 super vig who gets to target 8 players on N6 and that’s why I’m so desperate to not rush into her limIn post 5380, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I wonder what kind of OP role Misty has.
Bravo CSF, your genius insight foils me once again"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I’m probably being very paranoid here but why is the post tag brokenIn post 5377, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I really do think the nominating defuser thing is a scum slip. See 5344."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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You utter trollIn post 5388, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:i can't possibly imagine scum!CSF making 5344
that is a work of art"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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If it’s cross posting from scum PT that’s always been a legit thing to point out afaik and not considered as oog influence
If it can be caused by something else then I have no idea what, or if it’s no longer acceptable to point out broken tags due to cross posting then uh *shrug* my bad"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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(1) can we get a “CONFIRMATION BIAS” a little louder from the back please! (2) if you would apply an ounce of critical reasoning to this you would see that it’s not trueIn post 5383, Dwlee99 wrote:1.) Just seeming like scum and 2.) Having terrible associatives with the flipped scum."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Okay I’ll drop it and you can explain postgameIn post 5395, Bell wrote:In post 5392, Menalque wrote:If it’s cross posting from scum PT that’s always been a legit thing to point out afaik and not considered as oog influence
If it can be caused by something else then I have no idea what, or if it’s no longer acceptable to point out broken tags due to cross posting then uh *shrug* my bad
I did this once and they flipped town actually it was a convoluted reason. I thought they fixed it though. It’s been brought up in the past, I clearly remember those that could do something about it being informed."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Why? That seems like exactly the trolly shit I can see dats enjoying, and as I mentioned I actually played a game with him that leant in that direction and could have served as inspiration for the setup powerIn post 5397, Mistyx wrote:
i think the analysis of "4 protectives would not exist in a setup with limited scum kills" is accurateIn post 5396, Menalque wrote:Misty, what do you think of the whole CSF thing? Definite scum CC or am I discounting the possibility of a fucky NA situation due to scum being low on kills
It just seems very unlikely to me that scum wouldn’t have been saving kills for post Baltar flip
and i think jailkeeper doesn't match the power level as well
Also why on jk? If she’s lazy then she’s essentially named townie by the lategame, and I don’t think JK is that much stronger than doc/babysitter (probably more than bodyguard)"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Oh, gotcha. Was just wondering if you were someone I’d played with before under a different name but who’d transitioned to a new account for whatever reasonIn post 5405, Bell wrote:I was a player called Remembrance before. Took long (4-5 year?) hiatus during undergrad. Returned as bell when covid hit."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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You know that you don’t need the post id number right?
You just doand it will auto fill the first “[post]” tag with the absolute/forum #id for the postCode: Select all
[post]NUMBER OF POST HERE[/post]
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Namely: doing petty bullshit like refusing to claim targets because you have a SR on the person who is asking you to do so is not alright as town unless you’re trying to obfuscate whether you have shots left — which you’re clearly not, because you’re not claiming a shot limit"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Yes but claiming a role is one thing and claiming a convincing set of targets that make sense with your thought process for each night in the game is another entirelyIn post 5416, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
I claimed like right away after you said you were protective thoughIn post 5412, Menalque wrote:something something DGB, something soemthing true claims take a second fakeclaims take forever"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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jhcIn post 5427, Andante wrote:lol I think I know where this is going, and I'll solve this right now, I hardclaim VT, I was trying to draw a night kill"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Okay, before we lim misty I wanna talk about pooky. Does anyone read him as town, if so why?
Here’s his basic trajectory re: Baltar
D1: v sus
N1: has the opportunity to kill Baltar, talks about doing it, then just kinda backs down and chills out and is happy to go along with it when the mood from the other three of us is more towards letting Baltar solve
D2: uh I don’t remember súper well but not worried about Baltar really i think?
N2: Baltar gets picked as defuser
D3: I say “we probably need to kill baltar to be safe” and pooky hard shoots that idea down, goes in to bat and provides reasons why Baltar probably isn’t scum and we should keep letting him defuse
N3: Andres dies
D4: pooky suggests VPB town and probably only scum if SM scum and he’s bussing, soft defending VPB and just going along with the maj take
EoD4: SM town
D5: mood of game clearly towards limming VPB, pooky reverses again and is now down for it"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Now, lets look at my rough trajectory and how it’s different
D1: not really engaged with VPB, neutral, looking elsewhere
N1: push to not have VPB killed due to general mechanics and SH inspo for setup (yes, this looks kinda bad)
D2: soften on Baltar — note in my PT tells me that I liked how cooperative he was on N1 and even as I was aware that wasn’t a good basis for a TR, slipped into it anyway as he continued to be reasonable and helpful fmpov
N2: baltar is defuser
D3: suggest we need to kill him, not because of a shift in my read but bc he’s been defuser twice and I feel like we can’t risk him being scum
N3: Andres dies, scum confirmed in dwlee/strange/VPB — decide to trust my reads (lol) where I don’t like how absent SM has been, dwlee soft angling against me, and decide to trust (lol) my positive feelings on Baltar
D4: defense baltar, back limming the other two
N4: SM has flipped town
D5: Baltar clearly the more popular lim — choose to stick to my read and defend him while going after dwlee, until he makes an awful fakeclaim that’s not believable with what he posted on N1"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Question for anyone thinking I’m scum: why do I tie myself to my buddy on D5 when he’s so clearly going down anyway? If I’m hard committing to this, and willing to fake a PR claim (which you must believe me willing to do bc you think that’s what I’m doing today) then why not claim yesterday and claim a result to help Baltar survive, if I’m already hard committing to him?
Why hammer him at end of day when it weakens my possible defense of “sorry was stuck in a bad tunnel on dwlee”/try to maintain consistency there?
For today for those saying I make sense as scum with misty — if that were the team, and I’d just seen myself get shit for trying to save my buddy baltar, why in fuck would I not be all guns blazing for misty today when it would be that team comp’s ONLY hope of winning?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Not exactly, we kind of do and at a minimum if CSF is real then my protecc didn’t go off on Andy last night which means that scum didn’t use a NK (unless it was on me and uh, lol to that theory)In post 5449, GuiltyLion wrote:I've skimmed through the thread and I have gathered CSF/Mena CC each other,
Re: the CSF tinfoil. I think it’s reasonable as an inference and probably does give slightly +odds of scum but I also know that in my case it’s just me being a dumbass who p much always skims setups
If you still think I’m scum GL, then I’d love you to try and answer the questions posed in the posts directly above yours when you have some time.
I also would very much like to talk about pooky and get some answers on that, specifically the fact that while my positioning on Baltar may have been ~bad~, sure, it’s not *strategic* for shit whereas pooky’s positioning is *very strategic*"we knew everything... And we knew nothing." - Menalque
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