Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended
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- Pavowski
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Pavowski He/himMafia Scum
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That checks outIn post 9, alstroemerial wrote:Yeah that's why I voted for the last of us alphabetically
VOTE: Val
Since Val and Vote both start with V and linguistic logic will not be denied- Pavowski
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Intent to declare intent of declaration to intendIn post 23, alstroemerial wrote:
Me tooIn post 21, Lukewarm wrote:I read that as a scum team accusation
In terms of Not_Mafia, then, maybe should we do the whole intent-to-hammer+claim shebang at E-2 instead of E-1 then...? More like an "intent to E-1"?- Pavowski
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Your logic is good, but have you considered the possibility that Not_Mafia is not(not[not mafia])?In post 25, Val89 wrote:All,
I've played with some of you before, and I'm glad to see all two of you back for more. For those of you don't know me, allow me to introduce myself - my name is Val89, and I'm known for opening my games by posting what appears on it's surface to be a load of crap and can't possibly be alignment indicative, but actually completely deduces the scum team in my first post. If you don't beleive me, allow me to refer you to the game in question. Yes, a sample size of one, but that is 100% of the games I've played that aren't ongoing and thus fair game for discussion. Not bad odds, I am sure you will agree.
So, I have to say my attention has been immeadately drawn by not_mafia: Clearly, if we consider only alignment at this stage, ignoring the possibility of a serious mod error, there are only 2 possiblities: Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not mafia.
There are 9 players in the setup, of which 2 are mafia. That makes the probablity of case A, that Not Mafia is Mafia, as 2/9ths; and conversely, case B, that Not Mafia is not mafia as 7/9s.
Let's now consider another Non-Not Mafia player from the list, lets say, for sake of example, Lukewarm. The same possibities apply - either Lukewarm is mafia, or Lukewarm is not mafia. But Lukewarm is not Not Mafia, because that would be against the site rules precluding playing in the same game under two different names, so Lukewarm HAS to mafia. This logic can be applied to any other player you substitue for Lukewarm, with the sole exception of Not Mafia, meaning that 8 out of 9 players in the game would have to be mafia. Clearly, this is a contridiction, and so our initial assumption is wrong.
If you instead consider the alternative posibilities that either Not Mafia is mafia, or that Not Mafia is not not mafia, then we resolve our contridication. While this doesn't give us any clues as to any of the other playerbase, returning to our example, Lukewarm being not mafia is fine, if not mafia is not Not Mafia. Thus, either Not Mafia is mafia, or Not Mafia is not Not Mafia, and since Not Mafia CLEARY IS Not Mafia, then Not Mafia is mafia. Easy
VOTE: Not_Mafia
I need an aspirin- Pavowski
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It's weird but I dunno if it's scummy. Does 7for7 count as a buzzword? It's a pretty odd reference to make, especially about Val's ... 1 for 1 claim?In post 60, Val89 wrote:
Oh, I agree completely, but 1for1 might well be reasonable, at least for the first couple of pages. I'll be sure to let you know if anything else pings my radar. I'm not adverse to adjusting my reads, particulary such early ones, if there is a reason to do so.In post 57, Zyla wrote:7for7 is probably not the best way to play tbh
By the way, does anyone else have an opinion if Zyla's post counts as a potential Buzzword scumtell?
For that matter, does "buzzword" count as a buzzword?- Pavowski
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What, even, is this interaction, coming on page 2, before the game is even three hours old?In post 47, Lukewarm wrote:
This is probably the scummiest sentence I have read.In post 44, Val89 wrote:I still think since Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm, though. We can deal with him tomorrow.
The idea that any town player would already be ready to decide who should be the Day 1 elim on page 2 baffles me
Not_Mafia is only at E-2, because he is voting for himself right now lol
Do we really think Val intends to elim Not_Mafia at this point in the game?- Pavowski
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So you'd flag the Luke/Val kerfuffle as both players attempting to sort?In post 81, alstroemerial wrote:Normally the 'blowing up nothing into something' bit would ping scum for me, but I just don't think someone whose Topics List has so many games would fall into that trap. I also suspect that their questioning of me was a subtle way to try to sort me, which strikes me as town-like. So if I had to pick I'd give a TL, but everything is like scarcely off of null right now at this stage.- Pavowski
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In post 87, Val89 wrote:I just want clarify because I feel like I must be misunderstanding something here, your
The misunderstanding was so great it blew his hat off, give 'em a minuteLukewarm wrote:
Yes?In post 87, Val89 wrote:I just want clarify because I feel like I must be misunderstanding something here, your- Pavowski
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Man. When I left it the Luke/Val thing felt town v town to me, but the fact that it's still going strong makes me .... less convinced. But since that truck seems firmly in the ditch, and I think it's early for anybody to be at e-2, let's try to change the subject a little bit.
UNVOTE: Val
I was wondering the same thing. Why no vote yet, Marci? You've certainly had the opportunity.In post 114, Portia wrote:
Why not vote yet in the game - do you normally not RVS.In post 13, marcistar wrote:
portia and pavowski both start with a p, which makes u teammates try to fight this undeniable logicIn post 11, Pavowski wrote:Since Val and Vote both start with V and linguistic logic will not be denied- Pavowski
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I'm also interested in the Umlaut / Not_Mafia crossvote; even though it feels like an RVS followed by a "no u" retaliation vote, there's this:
Which implies either that NM is not voting seriously at this point, or that he's keeping his vote on Umlaut deliberately.In post 71, Not_Mafia wrote:If I were voting seriously at this point, I'd be voting Lukewarm
Then again NM claims to be here to troll, so what we can make of his posts must needs be taken with appropriate doses of salt.
Meanwhile Umlaut is on V/LA until tomorrow, I think, so I don't know where any of that goes.- Pavowski
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which part of it isnt convincing, lukes side or val89s side?In post 123, marcistar wrote:In post 119, Pavowski wrote:Man. When I left it the Luke/Val thing felt town v town to me, butthe fact that it's still going strong makes me .... less convinced.But since that truck seems firmly in the ditch, and I think it's early for anybody to be at e-2, let's try to change the subject a little bit.
To be honest, neither side looks particularly good after all that, but it honestly feels like Luke is trying to find a way to justify his case. I think Portia said he feels thoroughly tunneled, and I'd agree- Pavowski
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Is anybody actually making a case for a NM elim right now? The worst he's done from where I sit is not post very much and cast a reflexive vote on UmlautIn post 128, Lukewarm wrote:After playing like 4-ish games with Not_Mafia, I am against a Day 1 Not_Mafia elim, and generally suspicious of people who lean into eliming him Day 1 -- he is an easy miselim target / angle for the scum team to push. Plus, I have also found him to be a pretty good scum hunter, and would like to see any pushes that he leans into before I personally try to sort him.
Although, I do not believe I have actually encountered scum Not_Mafia before- Pavowski
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I've been trying to evaluate things as I see them. What would you like to see out of me?In post 159, alstroemerial wrote:
For now I'll shift to VOTE: Pavowski because of his relatively low content (except for Umlaut who is V/LA and Not_Mafia, of whom I have low expectations...)
For what it's worth, I also tend to find Luke, like Dostoevsky, a difficult readLukewarm wrote:
They are both in a "I need more content from them" categoryIn post 150, marcistar wrote:and portia and pavowski as well, ive noticed u havent rlly mentioned them
From experience, Pavowski is not someone that I can read very well :/
In our first game, he replaced into a slot that I was pretty sure was town, and he tanked that read a bit in my eyes. It was in fact a town slot, so I am aware that I don't really read his posts as town, even when he is town- Pavowski
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I know you asked about me and didn't necessarily ask me directly, but seeing as things have quieted down a little bit today:marcistar wrote:has anyone played with pavoski before, does he usually play in this laid back style?
Early reads for me are based on not much and rely on parsing language for things that might or might not even be there (see the entirety of Luke/Val).
For now we're just jousting back and forth about innuendos and assumptions. (Which I guess some people put a lot of stock in, but I am skeptical how useful it is.)
Basically I'm still getting a feel for the people I don't know, and trying to separate out the meta from the ones I do. Any read I have would have a degree of confidence so low as to hardly bear mentioning.- Pavowski
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In post 176, Lukewarm wrote:
I understand this mind set, but when people take this approach to a game day 1, it results in an inactive game, and thus takes longer for the game to get to the point where you are comfortable with your reads.In post 175, Pavowski wrote:Early reads for me are based on not much and rely on parsing language for things that might or might not even be there (see the entirety of Luke/Val).
For now we're just jousting back and forth about innuendos and assumptions. (Which I guess some people put a lot of stock in, but I am skeptical how useful it is.)
Basically I'm still getting a feel for the people I don't know, and trying to separate out the meta from the ones I do. Any read I have would have a degree of confidence so low as to hardly bear mentioning.
I general, I find it more beneficial for players to be a bit fast and loose with their reads for the first half of Day 1. "This seems town" and "this seems scummy" for things that are not enough for a town or scum read in ELo -- players are voicing opinions, and people can ask themselves if those opinions make sense, and it can all be looked back on later.
Some thing that I have seen in our other game together (and I would say that I have seen this from town marci as well) is that you appear to hang back until you are sure of reads
I mean I agree with you in general, but I've tried to flag a few things that strike me about some players: (119, 122, 161). And this thread has been anything but *inactive*
Thing is, I'm not ready to do a deep dive on why player x is scummy or player y is towny at this point. That's not me hanging back until I'm *sure* of reads; I'll never get to that point. But I do like to have at least a basis for a read to go along with a gut feeling. Otherwise I'm flooding the thread with garbage I then have to walk back later on.
And, again, we're still early d1!
These are interesting points for you to make.This does a few things:
--active scum can take control of the direction of the thread, because cautious townies are not trying to lead (see me orchestrating a miselim on Strange Day 1 in our previous game)
--you can get scum read by the town for not scum hunting (see Marci getting scum read in our last game)
--the scum ream can make a case against you stating that you are lurking (see me making a case against you in our previous game)- Pavowski
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You *have* taken control of the thread, though, for better or for worse.In post 182, Lukewarm wrote:@Pav -- spoilered, because I feel like the discussion is entering like a "mafia theory" territory
Spoiler:
Are you saying other games are better? I mean I guess newbie games are newbie games for a reason but you seem to be saying that cautious play is a bad thing and, well, maybe I just don't understand the ethos of this site but I'm not sure I agree. I like the pace of this game so far. I can actually follow it.
Anyway, I'll take a step further to say I think your tunnel on Val is misguided and your intent to continue it is scummy, and I now think there's scum on one side or the other of that little blow-up where I didn't originally.
I think Zyla is hanging back where she doesn't normally seem to, which is not a great look.
And while I think Portia maybe doesn't have the greatest manner (I'm still scratching my head over 166) he feels towny to me.
These are leans and gut reads and nothing more. But I agree with you, there are people I want to hear more from in this thread.- Pavowski
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1 -- your intent to continue signals to me that you've basically made your mind up on this one, and yeah, I think it's early for that. I'm not saying you could've or should've played it any other way, that ship has sailed.In post 186, Lukewarm wrote:
- My "intent to continue is scummy" -- can you explain that better? I have dropped it, and am currently looking in other directions -- my stated intent is to come back to it in a few days, and determine if I still think it is the scummiest thing I have seen Day 1. Do you think it would be less scummy for me to decide to just call Val town? Or to have kept pushing it without looking at other people?
- I also noticed this, and was keeping my eye on it. I looked back at our last game, and she seemed surprised herself that she found something to latch on to early -- have you played any other games with her?
-What feels townie coming from Portia? Any posts stand out?
2 -- The only games I have with her are the games the three of us were in, plus an ongoing normal we won't talk about. She feels less proactive this game. I don't love meta, though, as people can (and should) adjust their meta.
3 -- Nothing concrete, maybe it's just a similarity in playstyle with myself. As I mentioned I don't love the tone of how he jumped on you in 166, but I don't really see that coming from scum.- Pavowski
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See, this is what I mean about parsing words that don't necessarily mean anything. Yes, in my opinion it's too early to make up your mind about any particular player. Yes, I think it's scummy that you're tunneling *so hard* on Val and signaling intent to continue doing so. Those things are not exclusive; they are linked.In post 190, Lukewarm wrote:
The reason I followed up on your first post was because you did not say "it is too early" you said it is "scummy"In post 189, Pavowski wrote:1 -- your intent to continue signals to me that you've basically made your mind up on this one, and yeah, I think it's early for that. I'm not saying you could've or should've played it any other way, that ship has sailed.
Do you think scum!me would be more likely to make that play then town!me? And why?
I think a townie looking out for town would move on from a bad push. They would certainly move on from pressure just meant to gather information. The fact you simply won't let it go reads more like scum pushing for a miselim.- Pavowski
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In post 159, alstroemerial wrote: For now I'll shift to VOTE: Pavowski because of his relatively low content (except for Umlaut who is V/LA and Not_Mafia, of whom I have low expectations...)
I just think it's interesting I'm getting pinged for low content by these two. I don't post as much as some, but the shoe is surely on the other foot (or feet) here.In post 191, marcistar wrote:Pavowski- null. i'm not quite sure about anything from them, from what they've posted nothing really seems scummy.. but the playstyle here just like is kinda offputting (he isnt the most active, and isnt contributing as much as i would like)
Alstro dropped their vote and dipped for almost 24 hours now. I'm curious if there's anything at all behind it or if they were just hoping to get me to post more (in which case, I think I have). I think they're asking broad questions to give an appearance of scumhunting but I have no idea where they actually stand on anybody.
(Yeah, I know, given my recent posts this is a bit of pot and kettle, but it is what it is, and Marci asked.)- Pavowski
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I'm sorry, I've lost the thread of what question we were originally talking about. I'm not sure it matters anymore at this point. To me, you were making a distinction without a difference when you pointed out in one post I called something "scummy" and in a subsequent post that "it was too early" to decide something.In post 195, Lukewarm wrote:I am not sure why you think that that form of a question is meaningless tho- Pavowski
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WB Umlaut,
I'm looking back over those posts you've referenced but since you asked, I have to agree with Portia's recent post:In post 199, Umlaut wrote:Okay, I'm skimming through the topic now. Quick remarks (writing as I go, so earlier comments may not reflect later read updates)
[*]192 -- "tunneling is scummy" is an odd take, do you think tunneling is actually >rand probable to come from scum?[/list]
It's not that the tunneling is scummy. It's that it went on too long, for my tastes, to be an information-gathering exercise and moved into "this feels motivated" territory, to the point where one of two things seems to have happened:Portia wrote: As for the earlier question about how I could not like the 1v1 and still find it alignment/tone indicative, it has to do with duration.
1) town!Luke has decided he's cornered scum here and doesn't want to let the chance to eliminate scum on d1 slip away, or
2) scum!Luke wants to get Val miselim'd for reasons
Neither would surprise me but given the tenor and the duration of the interaction I lean slightly toward #2 at the moment- Pavowski
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Bastardization of "the pot calling the kettle black", or in other words, I'm pointing out flaws in other players that could also be pointed out in me.In post 218, marcistar wrote:
whats pot and kettle mean in these terms o-o i dont think ive seen anyone use it.In post 200, Pavowski wrote:
(Yeah, I know, given my recent posts this is a bit of pot and kettle, but it is what it is, and Marci asked.)- Pavowski
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In post 224, alstroemerial wrote:
Who?In post 168, Portia wrote:I’m most interested in sorting the Lebowski person.
Spoiler:- Pavowski
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A self-vote? Yuck.
Luke, the fact you've played 2 nearly flawless games doesn't move me the way I think you want it to.
I think your read on Val is mostly confirmation bias if it isn't outright scummy. Your self-vote gives me pause as far as thinking you're scum, but seeing as you were nowhere near elimination when it happened, I am less moved.
While I agree that a Luke/Val elim probably yields good information today, I'm not sold on it for d1 yet.- Pavowski
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alstroemerial wrote:
A Val flip would give information for sorting Portia, Umlaut, and Marci in my opinion. Not so much info on Luke. A Luke flip, while I’m opposed to it, would admittedly give a ton of information on almost everyone. I do not need help sorting the other slot because I feel like I’ve pretty much already sorted it, but I acknowledge that a Luke flip would tell us a lot more than, say, an Umlaut flip or a Marci flip.In post 285, Val89 wrote:
But if you limmed Val, and I flipped town, then youIn post 279, alstroemerial wrote:but I agree that limming in {Luke, Val} is helpfulstillwouldn't feel comfortable flipping Luke? How it is helpful in sorting the other slot, then?
In other words: those two options would both give a ton of information which is why I think either could be useful, but I would prefer to lim Val because I’m pretty sure Luke is town. However, if everyone was like “nah let’s do Luke” I wouldn’t be thrilled but I would take the info.
I’ll agree to trust NM and VOTE: Val to stake my position but if it seems like we’re on track to hammer to fast this is coming off.
Sorry for any bad formatting I’m mobileposting.In post 279, alstroemerial wrote:At this point having read both the ISOs, I'm reasonably confident Luke is town. He has been the main instigator for most of this, and I would really not expect scum to keep bringing this up, going so hard, and drawing so much attention. He has also basically set himself up for an elim if Val flips town, which is not something that scum would do (unless this is next-level bussing, which I think there's just no way). He has also just been doing more productive in general besides the Val interaction. Now, that does include the possibility that this is TvT, and I'm honestly not convinced that it isn't. But if I had to pick, I would pick Val. I haven't seen a confirmed scum!Val yet, but I'm getting a really different vibe than 2068. It could in part be that Val didn't get as much serious heat in 2068. To summarize where I'm at, I'm TR on Luke and a slight SL on Val. I still don't have enough from Umlaut, Not_Mafia, and Portia to really feel confident about Val, but I agree that limming in {Luke, Val} is helpful and between the two would rather do Val.
I don't want to vote because that would bring Val to E-2 aka "NM E-1" and I don't want to go there when there is so much of the day left.
I am just curious it you are actually scumreading Val for anything in this thread or if, as you seem to say in 279, it's basically a case based on meta.- Pavowski
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I'm glad you brought NM up again because I was just wondering about him. On the one hand I want to say if the slot isn't gonna be participating in a meaningful manner, it's worth a policy elim. If nothing else it'd get us to d2 and give us a NK to work with rather than continuing to ride this Luke/Val merry-go-round, and who knows, he could be scum for all anybody knows.In post 309, Umlaut wrote:Strong TR on Lukewarm still.
Some degree of TR on all of {marcistar, alstroemerial, Pavowski}.
Gives me an elim pool of {Val98, Not_Mafia, Zyla, Portia}.
NM has done fuck-all but I kind of expect that from him. Would not object to an elim there but in my experience we either do it or don't, trying to use votes to pressure him is useless.
On the other hand I think we learn a lot more from some of the other potential flips.- Pavowski
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At the risk of derailing this conversation, I think we need to entertain other possibilities. Val points out that the Luke/Val extravaganza is allowing townies to coast, but there is at least 1 mafia out there coasting as well (unless these 2 are scum together, in which case I am quitting this site forever).
I think Zyla is coasting. I know she said RL was a factor, but I looked over her ISO -- including the posts she made this morning after checking back in and refreshing -- and I don't see her actually taking a clear position on anybody. Before yesterday, it's much the same.
VOTE: Zyla because I think you're hedging. You said you think Luke/Val is SvT but you're not sure which way. If you think there's scum on one side, you must have an opinion, even if it's only an inkling.
I am also, like Umlaut, ready to consider a policy elim on NM if others feel similarly.
And if we absolutely must settle Luke/Val today, well, we'll fall off that bridge when we come to it.
This is e-2 for Zyla by my count.
Luke, Val, (and anybody, but I especially want to invite these two to talk about something else -- I venture to say, anything else), I'd appreciate your thoughts on Zyla. If you've given them previously, well, I'll admit to being one of those who has gone a bit glassy-eyed in this crossfire.- Pavowski
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I am currently of the opinion that you and Luke are both town. Maybe not the most towniest, but town. If that's on the fence, I guess I can't argue with you, but I am not resigned to voting strictly between the two of you yet.
I wasn't asking you to vote her, I just wanted your thoughts, but I guess that'll do.In post 340, Val89 wrote:I think the whole town is asleep at the wheel; so no, I'm not voting Zyla for something half the playerlist is guilty of.
Duly flagged, however, that Luke asked for your thoughts before giving me his own on Zyla.- Pavowski
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In post 352, Zyla wrote:
I can't speak for everyone, but I'm recovering from something right now, and the harsh tone of the thread is making it harder for me to enjoy the game, and thus harder to play. It's not that I'm content to sit and watch as much as that I feel engaging with it too much isn't a good idea for meIn post 351, Val89 wrote:
That's a fair assesment. We are approaching page 15, and I'm getting a little frustrated that everyone seems content to sit back and watch.In post 348, marcistar wrote:val seems a bit more aggressive rn imo
I think we all need to take a step back and remember that we're doing this to havefunSpoiler:- Pavowski
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I've gone back and forth on it but I come around like this: the way this thing has (d)evolved, it virtually guarantees that if we eliminate one, and they flip town, the first place we will look the next day is at the survivor. I don't think scum is going to lean *that* hard into a miselim on d1. I guess by that rationale it's *possible* it's SvS, as if the other flips scum, then that gets the other a pretty solid town-read, but I am, how shall I say, exceedingly skeptical of that possibility.In post 366, marcistar wrote:
pavowski, i dont really see you explain this anywhere (i might be missing it tho), but what made you think tvt? also whos the coasting-scum then?In post 346, Pavowski wrote:
I am currently of the opinion that you and Luke are both town. Maybe not the most towniest, but town. If that's on the fence, I guess I can't argue with you, but I am not resigned to voting strictly between the two of you yet.
I think in short both players are making a case they honestly believe to be true about the other.
As I mentioned a few posts ago, I think Zyla is coasting, as I don't see a lot of substance out of her posts and not a lot of evidence of hunting or analysis of the game. I think she's a prime candidate for scum, but she's also stated she has some RL stuff going on, and, well, that's a mitigating factor I have to contend with.
Where the last scum could be hiding, I haven't theorized a whole lot yet. Obviously if my assumptions are correct it's in one of the remaining 5 (Portia, Marci, Umlaut, NM, Alstro). Of those, I have town pings on Umlaut and Alstro, nullish reads on Marci and Portia, and NM is a friggin' black box.- Pavowski
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That's a fair point. But of players who might qualify as "coasters" I get less towny pings from Zyla.In post 385, Val89 wrote:I've literally no idea what Zyla has done to deserve sitting at E-2 though. Two to the votes seem to be 'Zyla's coasting', and I've already explained why I think that could be fairly applied to a lot of players in this game.- Pavowski
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Okay, fine. My morning has been slow, I'll do the homework.In post 388, Val89 wrote:I'll say it again: Read the second to last paragraph of post 99. Read the part of Lukes 324 in which he quotes from that paragraph and look what he has ommitted. Read the question he asks after, and then come back and tell me Luke honestly beleives the case he is making.
Here's the paragraph in question:
The highlighted text is what Luke quoted, the bolded is the part Luke snipped out in 99:In post 99, Val89 wrote:The concenus may well be that it makes Lukewarm townleaning, or that it's NAI, but I'll open up by saying my initial thoughts are that it leans scummy. The first post that Lukewarm indicates they had a perspective switch from "Val isn't serious" to "I should take Val at face value" is post 33, where I imply that I think Lukewarm might be Not_mafia's scum buddy.That to me says Lukewarm is over-the-top sensitive to any suggestion early game they might be scum.I can better see why scum would react in such a manner than I can town - while a townie isn't all that worried about about a single player throwing some shade at them on page 2, if that shade causes attention to fall on an actual scum, even if it was accidental on the part of the person throwing it, then that could potentially lead to the scum team going into N1 having lost half their faction - potentially game losing for them.If it is obviously RVS, fine, but if there is any doubt it might be the start of a serious scumread, or might lead to one, then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early.
And the followup question from Luke is:In post 324, Lukewarm wrote:In post 99, Val89 wrote:
my initial thoughts are that it leans scummy.
The first post that Lukewarm indicates they had a perspective switch from "Val isn't serious" to "I should take Val at face value" is post 33, where I imply that I think Lukewarm might be Not_mafia's scum buddy.
That to me says Lukewarm is over-the-top sensitive to any suggestion early game they might be scum.
{snip}
then they want to start laying the narrative that it might be coming from scum early.
Luke, it's a fair question. Why snip out that one part of that one sentence?In post 324, Lukewarm wrote:My question to Val is, and has been:
Why would you expect scum!luke to behave the way you outlined in post 99? Why would I need to discredit you there? Why would I continue on that push once you explicitly said that "Not_Mafia is at E-2, we should just go ahead and make him the lim for the day rather than piviot to Lukewarm," ?- Pavowski
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I'm not gonna say it breaks this game open or anything -- we are talking about one sentence amidst pages of argument -- but it's shady to cut out a conditional that changes the entire tenor of what he was saying.In post 398, Lukewarm wrote:
Mainly because his paragraph, as written, was dense and hard to read.In post 394, Pavowski wrote:Luke, it's a fair question. Why snip out that one part of that one sentence?
He spent like 5 lines in that paragraph to say "and scum luke would be worried that either he, or his partner would get eliminated from this" I feel like that was still evident in what I posted -- if it wasn't, my bad I guess
My point was that there was no reason for me to be worried about getting eliminated when he was suggesting we flip Not_Mafia first (and, in this theory, Not_Mafia was no longer my partner from his PoV)- Pavowski
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Portia's approaching prod status as well, for that matterIn post 414, alstroemerial wrote:We're getting close to the prod point on Not_Mafia, with the only post in the last few days being 194, which is almost comical now in its irony.- Pavowski
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So, gth, if you had to vote Luke or Val, it'd be Val?In post 413, Zyla wrote:Compiled Reads list for ease of reference
Alstro - Town Lean - 255Seems to be genuinely trying to sort
Pav - Slight Town Lean -
Portia - Null Scum - 264
One probable Scum in
Luke - Null Town
Val - Null Scum
Luke has definitely not been playing up to what I've seen before, but page 15, it seemed like he was trying to move away from the 1v1 and interact with the thread as a whole, but Val was dragging him back in- Pavowski
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I can speak for myself; the day is half gone and I'm trying to figure out the Zyla slot. We're still waiting to hear why you want to vote Lukewarm.In post 426, Not_Mafia wrote:Why is Zyla getting wagoned?- Pavowski
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Kinda off topic Luke, but since you're reflecting, I'll say this for your ability to convince me:In post 422, Lukewarm wrote:Just like, self reflecting on this game, and I am coming to the conclusion that my biggest flaw in my town-game is lacking in the ability to explain my scum reads in a digestible / convincing way, and it has been a recurring theme.
Spoiler: Open 812
Spoiler: Micro 1010
Spoiler: Newbie 2065
I think I am generally pretty good at getting near universally town read.
I feel like my reads are generally better then average.
But then, despite being town read, I feel like it is a STRUGGLE to get people to see what I see
And it is honestly pretty frustrating.
That is the motivation behind those posts I made before btw. The ones that people said was me "begging for votes" --245 / 250 -- it is more like just the frustration of apparently being so unable to convince people in several of my games. And in this game, it was even more so. In the other games, I was mostly playing with people who had never played with me before, but then, in this one its like, half this lobby should have had a decent impression of my scum hunting, but even then... nope.
I am still very, very sure that Val is scum. But I am tired of trying to convince people of it. My vote will be there til the end of the day, and even then will only move if it is needed to avoid a no elim for the day.
Spoiler:
Spoiler:- Pavowski
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Portia, since you're likely to see this, have you refined your reads on Zulu (kidding Zyla ) and Alstro?In post 258, Portia wrote:Things I know I never like: self voting.
Things I know: I’m aggrieved hammered again (this week is the one I took off work)
Things I want to know: why Zola and Astro haven’t made any impression on me so far.
Things I want to do : bullshit at mafia for a bit.
Whos with me?
Also earlier, you described Marci as "fairly newb town" -- is that still holding up?- Pavowski
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Spoiler:- Pavowski
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I know you are certain of your case and I know you want to believe that this tone shift is evidence of scum losing their grip on the situation. But what if he's town? And what if he's getting hounded and feels like he's made his case (just like you have) and isn't being heard (like you said you were earlier today -- or late last night, whenever)?In post 450, Lukewarm wrote:@Pavplease don't miss thisIn post 445, Lukewarm wrote:In post 440, Pavowski wrote:Spoiler:Spoiler:
Spoiler: Val's tone before post 214
Spoiler: Val's tone after 214
@PavIf you do have other reasons to think he is town, can you town case him for me?
I think it makes just as much sense -- maybe even more -- that the tone shift you're describing is a result of frustration at retreading the same ground after so many posts. I don't love the tone shift you're putting on display here, but I do not read it as automatically sinister.
I didn't mind the spoilered posts while you were sort of reflecting on the situation in general, but this is the game we're talking about, and as Val points out:
this is another of those weird things that doesn't make sense to me if you're town.Val89 wrote:Pav, the only townread that's shown some inkling they are actually started following our 1v1 a bit and found something of yours to be scummy, and suddenly you are all over him in a "side conversation".
He spotted your snipping my posts to change the tone of them once, I trust he will spot you cherry picking quotes in that little manuever, too.
You asked for a town case for him, here is one thing (without diving into a deep ISO, which I don't think I have the stamina for on a Sunday). If he were scum against the wall, I'd expect him to be trying to distract and divert and send the rest of us down rabbit holes. He's not doing that; he's mostly playing defense and watching your moves like a hawk.
He's doingexactly what you're doing, just with a different style.- Pavowski
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I think their conflict is TvT, but if I had to vote against one or the other, right now I would vote Luke.
It's not by a lot, but if the elim is one or the other, that's where I am *right now*.
Don't mean to make my read confusing, but this is difficult when I don't *particularly* scumread either Luke or Val. It's weird. Like in a vacuum I'd say they're both more or less neutral for me right now, but their 1v1 feels TvT.- Pavowski
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I do see her recent effort and it's pulling her back some. I'll have another look at her ISO but that may be tomorrow.
I'm curious what she's looking for from Alstro above because I'm trying to figure out if I actually TR Alstro or if I'm just gutfeeling it there.
Incidentally Luke if you turn out right and it's Val + Portia/NM I'll sheep you in every game from now on- Pavowski
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That thing from me is not about shortening quotes, it's the whole concept about the spoilered conversation ... I didn't say anything about being misleading in that post, the only time I did was when I responded to Val's point about you snipping the middle bit out of a sentence in, I think it was 99In post 472, Lukewarm wrote:
I am curious what quotes you think I shortened to the point of being misleading?In post 461, Pavowski wrote:this is another of those weird things that doesn't make sense to me if you're town.
----------------
This is the thing I was trying to draw attention to was:
Prior to post 214, Val appears to have had a weak scum lean lean on me. He said himself in post 183 "It's not a strong lean"
Then he read post 214
After that, his read on me changed so much so that he appears to be so sure that I am scum that he has not indicated even the slightest worry that I might be a townie tunneled on him.
And I was hoping that you would ask yourself, does it make sense for his read and tone to have changed so suddenly from immediately before 214 to immediately after 214.
---------------
I feel like the quotes I chose highlighted that, and were not misleading about his stance on me either before or after.
I mean, I understand why Val wants to present it like I was misquoting him in some way, but I am not sure what drew you to agree with him there.
Shortening quotes misleadingly is a dumb play to make from either alignment tbh. The quote box links directly back to the original post, so if you want to look for further context it is right there. Making a misleading quote seems like a dumb trap to set up for yourself, since it is so easy to follow back on.- Pavowski
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UNVOTE: Zyla
I don't see any indication that NM is scum at this point, and an elim on him would tell us next to nothing, so as much as I am not a fan of the slot, an elim here doesn't make a lot of sense right now
Val's comments about Alstro are having some kind of effect on me. Then again I'm kinda liking Alstro's 468. I still TR Alstro in the top half of the players here. In fact looking back through his ISO, I need to hear from Portia's slot.
VOTE: Portia- Pavowski
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Agree wholeheartedly, Umlaut's vote makes Portia e-2 by my countIn post 524, alstroemerial wrote:Hey hey I know I was the first Portia vote on this wagon and I'm glad people are following me but can no one else vote Portia until either he picks up the prod or gets replaced? I don't want this to move too fast before he can say anything.- Pavowski
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Well that didn't work.In post 536, Pavowski wrote:
Anyway, if Portia is getting replaced I'll move my vote until we hear from the slot
Marci, I see you asking lots of questions but I'm not sure where you stand on a lot of this. I see your reads list in 191 where you were mostly null on a lot of this, and based on content in between it seems like, thanks to Luke/Val, you are reading Val scummier than you did in 191. Got any updated takes?- Pavowski
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I know Luke/Val was the source of fireworks in the thread, so I'm glad that's settled down even though the thread has gone quiet (I guess it was destined to happen with a replacement coming). But I begin to suspect I've gotten most of what I can out of today short of hearing from the Portia slot. We're getting a little low on time and it's time to start thinking about how today ends.
My elim pool right now looks like:
Portia (initial towny read has turned to scummy thanks to ghosting)
Zyla (was heading back into null but still null at best)
Luke (if Luke/Val is the decision today)
Marci, Alstro, and Umlaut give me towny enough vibes to stay above the line
I don't think Val is the move today
Honorable mention for NM, (Luke rightly pointed out a few posts ago that most of us have weighed in on the slot one way or another so I've come to consider a flip here again, but would only be a *we should at least flip somebody* option)
I'll put a vote down when Portia weighs in.- Pavowski
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NGL I had the same reaction to Zyla's vote and went back to rethink my Umlaut townlean. I still lean town on Umlaut and am back to leaning scum on Z.In post 552, Val89 wrote:After Zyla's vote, I was going back through the ISO and preparing to work up a post outlining the reasons I was scumreading Umlaut in case that was the direction we were heading, and in the process of doing so, I've decided I was wrong.- Pavowski
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I'm about to be on an overnight trip. Won't declare v/la because I'll still be reading on mobile, I just won't be able to post at length, but here's where I'm at in the meantime:
On the one hand, I don't want to lim either Luke or Val because I think they're both good sources of info in this game, town or no
On the other hand, this feels like something we're going to have to sort out sooner or later, and if one of them is right, it's a big help to the game
Portia's slot had become one of my top susses but, what can I say, I feel some kind of way about voting Shrek the moment he lands in the game, and he's at least pulled the slot back toward neutral a bit
I'm still open to other possibilities but I think for now VOTE: Lukewarm is where I want to go- Pavowski
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These are fair points and I'm finding it hard to disagreeIn post 613, alstroemerial wrote:One more food for thought to encourage people to vote for the Shrek/Portia slot: I know it sucks to replace in and get eliminated quickly, but that shouldn't be a reason to deter town from voting if they think they've found scum. We have to play to win. Portia was prickly at suspicion, avoidant of actual questions, and flying under the radar until eventually disappearing altogether. Shrek has been a little better but I'm not satisfied with the explanation given in 603 -- this conversation seems so full of hedging without putting a solid stance down, in order to avoid getting held accountable for something later. If it's Not_Mafia or a no elim, I'll help make an elim happen, but if we have some time left I would really ask people to consider this.
I can't decide if this is super-towny or scum trying to appear super-towny, between stuff like this and the claim Shrek is pinging me in both directions at this point and I don't like itIn post 615, Shrek wrote:im fine with being miselimmed if it means that itll help people narrow their poe down when it comes to a more pressing situation where they need to focus specifically on the alignments.
Trying to catch up on the rest of the thread, I should have a bit more tonight. - Pavowski
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