Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[StrangeMatter]

Hey.

[StrangeMatter]

I think I've seen the most scummy behavior from ofmercia, but I think true scum would make more of an effort to hide scummy behavior. Not quite ready to townread them yet, but they are at least one of the more active players.

Ofmercia is new. Honestly their posts ping me more as a newbie scum than a scummy newbie, if that makes sense.

Sorry can’t post as much but, can you point out what and why you think this?

[StrangeMatter]

A lot of people have been saying that discussing town strategy is not alignment indicative, but I'm also the most town-read player (18, 59, 60, 72, 128, 137) when most of what I've done in this game is discuss town strategy. Not quite sure how to interpret that. Anyway, I decided to read back over responses to my discussion of town strategy.

Dunnstral came in (14) immediately after my first post (13), answering a lot of my questions. He didn't really go deep into advice for town strategy. He also didn't agree with my ideas about town power fakeclaiming. I asked (15) if cop should claim the instant they detect scum, or wait to find the second scum. (I personally was thinking that cop should claim immediately after detecting scum, since that's vitally important information for town to have, and there's a 50% chance there will be a doctor to protect cop.) Dunnstral never actually answered this question instead talking (17) about how cop shouldn't claim when they *haven't* found any scum yet. Could just have skimmed over my post and misunderstood.

NorwegianboyEE came in (16) to reply to Dunnstral's answers (14) to my questions (13). His advice is good. He townreads me after (18). I asked about an unlikely hypothetical situation with doctor (19). I think it's best to claim in that circumstance. NorwegianboyEE disagrees with me (20), but his perspective is a normal perspective for people to have. NAI. He responds (21) to another unlikely situation about cop that I asked about (19). His answer seems reasonable to me. Elaborates on views (22, 23), and points out (24) that cop doesn't need to claim after a guilty to make an elimination happen, so claim should be a last resort. He elaborates on this further (26). He didn't have to point this out, and I don't think anyone would have noticed if he hadn't, and it's good advice that hadn't occurred to me, and probably hadn't occurred to other newbie town. I think this *is* alignment-indicative, and it indicates town.

KittyTacky came in (28) to elaborate on what NorwegianboyEE said (26), then disagreed with my fakeclaim ideas (29). This is not an unusual perspective to take. NAI.

ofmerica pretty much just restated accepted site meta (35) when prompted (34). They seem to have misunderstood what I was saying about what mafia would know in my hypothetical, so I clarified (36). Then they went on to say that it's a bad idea to claim mason (37, 42). I'm not going to say this is alignment-indicative though, because I think mafia would want cop to claim cop rather than mason. I can read what ofmerica said as either town-beneficial or scum-beneficial.

fwogcarf said (48) that strategy discussion is NAI. I think it can be AI, as I explained in my read on NorwegianboyEE. Still, I can believe town having fwogcarf's perspective here. I prodded (49) saying that this was beneficial to town, and fwogcarf blew it off (52) saying that it wouldn't factor into his reads. He then said (53) that it benefits mafia more than town, but he wouldn't protest if the discussion continued without him (54). Seems a bit shady to me. If you believe that a discussion benefits scum more than town, why wouldn't you try to shut it down? I called him out (56) pointing out that his claim (53) that scum knows more about the setup is wrong (on average). He admits to having made a mistake (64). And it is an easy mistake to make. I don't think anyone was studying the NewD3 table as much as I was.

ofmerica (66) asked Dunnstral about Progo's "slip" (62), but without saying there was anything wrong with it. ofmerica spent a lot of P5 arguing that this was a slip. That looks to me like scum trying to start a wagon without actually being on it, and I said as much (116). ofmerica defends by saying that they didn't vote Progo because they wanted to hear from Progo first (118) ... but I'm not finding anywhere where ofmerica actually asked Progo to address what was happening, or anywhere where ofmerica actually addressed Progo directly at all. Just double-checked ofmerica's posts: they have not directly addressed Progo in this entire game.

Reads thus far:

NorwegianboyEE - Probably town for volunteering town-beneficial advice that wasn't obvious (at least to newbies) and wouldn't have been noticed if it were omitted.

fwogcarf - Might be scum for not trying to stop a discussion that he seems to have thought benefited mafia. I don't have a strong feeling about this though. Might be sub-optimal town play.

ofmerica - Might be scum for quietly trying to start a wagon without engaging in any actual questioning of the person the wagon targets. I'd put the odds of them being scum higher than fwogcarf, which is why this is still my vote.

I'd really like to hear more from the other five players though. Since I don't have much in their words to go off of, I'm going to post some stats:

AutoDefenestrator
5 posts: 44, 122, 123, 129, 130
447 words. 89 average words per post.

fwogcarf
12 posts: 38, 39, 48, 52, 53, 54, 64, 70, 78, 79, 80, 84
216 words. 18 words per post.

ofmercia
15 posts: 8, 30, 35, 37, 42, 66, 87, 94, 98, 103, 111, 112, 115, 118, 128
566 words. 37 words per post.

TistDaniel
19 posts: 13, 15, 19, 26, 31, 33, 36, 40, 41, 43, 47, 49, 50, 56, 116, 117, 119, 125, 131
2616 words. 137 words per post.

ProgoWoshua
9 posts: 45, 46, 51, 62, 68, 88, 89, 100, 102
183 words. 20 words per post.

KittyTacky
14 posts: 6, 11, 28, 29, 74, 75, 76, 86, 99, 110, 113, 114, 121, 124
437 words. 31 words per post.

NorwegianboyEE
37 posts: 9, 10, 12, 16, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 27, 34, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 63, 69, 71, 73, 81, 83, 90, 91, 92, 93, 95, 96, 97, 101, 105, 106, 107, 109, 132
1474 words. 39 words per post.

Dunnstral
5 posts: 14, 17, 65, 67, 82
387 words. 77 words per post.

Frogsterking
7 posts: 7, 72, 77, 85, 104, 108, 120
234 words. 33 words per post.

I said (47) that I'm a very slow and analytical reader when it comes to mafia games. This is why. I'm collecting and organizing data as much as I can. I feel it helps with investigation. For example, you can tell at a glance that Dunnstral, AutoDefenestrator, and Frogsterking are the biggest lurkers in this game. fwogcarf and ProgoWoshua are less obvious lurkers: they've made more posts, but they've said less in those posts. I'm the most active player by wordcount, and second most active by postcount. NorwegianboyEE is the most active by postcount and the second most active by wordcount, which reinforces my townread on him: lurking is anti-town, and he's lurked less than anyone.

My vote remains on ofmerica.

Pars of this post reads similarly to the player Sommus (Who was scum) in the last newbie game being Information instead of Analysis, such as the early paragraphs and the words per post.

I'm still very on the fence right now (posts that are townie but this post pings me as scummy) with Daniel's alignment from this but I need to keep reading.

[StrangeMatter]

i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases.

i feel like he hasn't done anything this game

I'm not sure I'm following this bolded part here. Exactly what about that is scum indicative that translates over multiple games?

[StrangeMatter]

I'm caught up on most major parts of this game, but I'm just going to point out things that stick out to me.

[StrangeMatter]

Consistent or not consistent isn’t necesarilly indicative of town or scum.
Town players contradict themselves all the time. And players that are very consistent when they are usually not, may be scum.
Is consistency something you scum hunt with Frog?

This is one of those posts that is so easily faked with how often I've heard this exact phrase and wording.

[StrangeMatter]

It's not wrong, but not really unique enough to say this is indicative of town.

Also, I gtg I need to do my work. Be back soon.

[StrangeMatter]

Consistent or not consistent isn’t necesarilly indicative of town or scum.
Town players contradict themselves all the time. And players that are very consistent when they are usually not, may be scum.
Is consistency something you scum hunt with Frog?

This is one of those posts that is so easily faked with how often I've heard this exact phrase and wording.

Post faked? I stated a fact.
TF you talking about.

Yes, it is a fact but at the end of the day, it's content to me that seems easily made from either alignment that seems like a fake.

[StrangeMatter]

Also, nice Elis profile picture, kind of an obscure character.

I will admit that not all content can be fake but it's far easier to do that.

[StrangeMatter]

I was actually spectating but I did see some similarities there.

[StrangeMatter]

I was actually spectating in 2087, but I did see some similarities there.

Wait LMAO I'm stupid I was playing gave up and then came back to spectate.

[StrangeMatter]

Norwegian asks progo where he is, progo responds that he is busy and will pretend to answer in the thread.

This to me looked like scum talking and progo posting in the wrong thread. Scum will most surely pretend to answer posts as they need to hide scum agenda.

I know you're just going to say I'm avoiding again but this is as clear as I can get. If you still don't understand something this simple I cannot help you unfortunately.

ProgoWoshua you gonna come in?
Don’t be shy! Come and say hi!
I’ve got tea and crackers setting up on the fly.

I'm a little busy right now. But I pretend to respond to Daniel's strategy soon.

You mean this? I'm not sure why they said pretend, I assume they are joking.

I meant "intend". Sorry.

I'm not sure I'm following the logic behind what you're saying here @ofmercia. Exactly what about that makes it likely to you that progo posted in the wrong thread? Because every time I read it, I agree with what others have said that it reads like a grammar mistake over an actual slip.

[StrangeMatter]

Alright, what is this survey? I've been reading and keep hearing about frog's survey but it's barely ever talked about beyond that other than just egging them on.

[StrangeMatter]

And I still need to give my reads on you, TistDaniel.

In my last game, there was a newbie scum that was scarily good at pulling off the analytical townie facade. So I'm reluctant about giving a townread based on that.

But I haven't seen anything that I consider scummy from, and there's nothing indicating that the same thing will happen in this game. So I'm still giving you a townread.

I don't agree with the main thought behind this, but I think this likely comes from town.

My problem with this as a thought though, is that often people who are deepwolfing themselves do not try to act scummy, and usually are very good at pulling off faking being town. Most of the time when someone's super obviously town it's worth asking yourself if that person can or cannot really replicate town gameplay or not. Knowing if someone can or can't do that is mostly experience though, though another rule of thumb I personally have right now is to always double-check especially on the validity of said read being right or not.

[StrangeMatter]

Okay I get what you're asking but why do you specify game solving here (which I'm under the assumption is a part scumhunting but is inherently different), especially Day 1?

[StrangeMatter]

Fine by me. But take my reads with this in mind.

Progo is probably town with their post about Daniel
Daniel is null (fear is mostly why though)
Norweegian I don't have a strong opinion on either there's just nothing that pings me. Null
Your slot is odd with the switches which I smell slight opportunism coming from your slot. Null-lean scum
Fwog there's a post they made that pings me as scummy where they as scum would be shading less active slots inconspicuously. Leaning scum there.
Kitty I'm really unsure, really need to look into this and I have questions I want to ask this slot about.
Ofmercia reads like a newbie who latches (similarly to another player) onto weird logic which partially pings me as misguided town.

[StrangeMatter]

Fine by me. But take my reads massive grains of salt with this in mind since I definitely am not confident in a good chunk of my reads this game.

Progo is probably town with their post about Daniel
Daniel is null (fear is mostly why though)
Norweegian I don't have a strong opinion on either there's just nothing that pings me. Null
Your slot is odd with the switches which I smell slight opportunism coming from your slot. Null-lean scum
Fwog there's a post they made that pings me as scummy where they as scum would be shading less active slots inconspicuously. Leaning scum there.
Kitty I'm really unsure, really need to look into this and I have questions I want to ask this slot about.
Ofmercia reads like a newbie who latches (similarly to another player) onto weird logic which partially pings me as misguided town.

EBWOP

[StrangeMatter]

Speaking of, currently, what are your reads @KittyTacky?

[StrangeMatter]

Okay so walk me through your read progression on Kitty's slot.

Part of my issue here is I look at Kitty's slot and noted that they have been pushing ofmercia for the entire day now and barring out most everything else. Part of the problem is I'm stuck on whether or not scum would end up tunneling this hard or not. I keep leaning on the former right now but I don't see much against the latter.

[StrangeMatter]

Okay so walk me through your read progression on Kitty's slot.

Part of my issue here is I look at Kitty's slot and noted that they have been pushing ofmercia for the entire day now and barring out most everything else. Part of the problem is I'm stuck on whether or not scum would end up tunneling this hard or not. I keep leaning on the latter (scum doesn't tunnel and is more likely town) right now but I see posts for the former (scum can absolutely play aggressively early, and some opportunism with how easy of a push ofmercia would be).

EBWOP.

It's getting extremely late so I'll respond later.

[StrangeMatter]

Okay so walk me through your read progression on Kitty's slot.

Part of my issue here is I look at Kitty's slot and noted that they have been pushing ofmercia for the entire day now and barring out most everything else. Part of the problem is I'm stuck on whether or not scum would end up tunneling this hard or not. I keep leaning on the former right now but I don't see much against the latter.

Okay great. And how is this current view different from your view while I scum cased Kitty and fwog?

Not much is particularly different from this post to that point (Also definitely misworded #429 since I meant I can't really tell if this is scum them pushing aggressively on day 1 or not). Though now looking at their reads I do get a slight "I'm just doing the general consensus" vibe with not really many interesting or big takes from their reads list which seems...kind of scummy to me.

[StrangeMatter]

Why. I even proofread and I still make errors.

I meant #428, not #429.

[StrangeMatter]

@Strange

Okay great, who were you vibing with around that same time while I was casing Kitty and fwog?

Personally? I didn't really vibe with anyone around that time. Not much really happened outside of you casing Fwog, and then Kitty that pinged me as something townie.

[StrangeMatter]

You can always use EBWOP to fix posts, just can't edit the actual post.

Progo felt townie to me (partially gut but also similar to the other game) when I was looking at their posts.

[StrangeMatter]

The other game in which you were town?

I meant my last newbie game.

[StrangeMatter]

I’m sorry but I’ve been busy currently. Let’s make up more stuff on your scumtell.

[StrangeMatter]

Plus the last time someone did this exact scumtell they were very wrong, like right now.

I gtg but I’ll be back.

[StrangeMatter]

Plus the last time someone said I scumtelled they were very wrong, like right now.

I gtg but I’ll be back.

EBWOP.

[StrangeMatter]

Idk what happened to my grammar there.

[StrangeMatter]

Personally I'd rather eliminate Kitty over Auto, but it's not very different from what others have said their flip really doesn't give us much to work with. I personally also don't think it would be the best bet for flipping scum.

VOTE: KittyTacky

[StrangeMatter]

Strange started talking about this other game they were town in because they're not town in this game.

I'm very confused, how did you come to the conclusion I scumtold? To me it's really weird since I personally take a lot from my past games, including people's meta, behaviors, and mistakes made.

[StrangeMatter]

No idea what happened to Micc, but I hope they’re doing okay.

[StrangeMatter]

Sorry, he's*

[StrangeMatter]

Strange started talking about this other game they were town in because they're not town in this game.

I'm very confused, how did you come to the conclusion I scumtold there?

To me it's really weird since I personally take a lot from my past games, including people's meta, behaviors, and mistakes made.

EBWOP but please do answer this, I’d like to know how you came to that thought.

[StrangeMatter]

Right now my pool is Frogster/Kitty/Fwog. I'm up to vote any one of these for what I've said earlier about these slots.

[StrangeMatter]

Why are you so hard tunneled on me anyways? Right now though, you've started to ping me as most likely to be opportunistic around my slot whenever I read your posts. I mean first you threw out that I was trying to fake my town game off a really weird and bad scum tell, then you come back and continue to focus me as a slot that doesn't add much to the game (which from experience alone I know is easy pickings), along with constantly throwing my name around quite a bit, which to me seems like you know I would be an easy slot to vote out, and have been hoping to set up for my elimination for a while now.

[StrangeMatter]

Snip

Replying to this by the way. Snipped for space of course.

[StrangeMatter]

Like okay hear me out.

I'm not as sure about Fwogster being scum here but I've been thinking through my past games (which was both town and scum games) and if I were scum here I'd absolutely want to set things up for myself to win down the line and that's what I think likely one of fwog/Kitty might be trying to do.

[StrangeMatter]

i think he is more likely to flip scum than most people, yes.

@strange so after all the inactivity you have nothing to say about a scum read you had being at -1. Sad actually. In fact seems you have nothing to say at all besides claim you're not scum in 3 posts. Where is the assistance to town here? Where is the reads. At least give what you think about the wagon or who you want to vote.

Pardon? I know I haven't been contributing but it is far too easy to point finger and say "X's not contributing they're scum." which scum has and will take advantage of.

I literally also threw down my reads at the moment on who I thought is scummy earlier, before those three posts, which are still relevant to me now.

I'm wondering, did you really not read anything of what I actually had to say?

Plus I have been scumhunting, and I'm at that point where it does make sense to look at opportunity which I've seen from Kitty/Frogster/Fwog (less sure about this one).

[StrangeMatter]

i think he is more likely to flip scum than most people, yes.

@strange so after all the inactivity you have nothing to say about a scum read you had being at -1. Sad actually. In fact seems you have nothing to say at all besides claim you're not scum in 3 posts. Where is the assistance to town here? Where is the reads. At least give what you think about the wagon or who you want to vote.

Pardon? I know I haven't been contributing but it is far too easy to point finger and say "X's not contributing they're scum." which scum has and will take advantage of.

I literally also threw down my reads at the moment on who I thought is scummy earlier, before those three posts, which are still relevant to me now.

I'm wondering, did you really not read anything of what I actually had to say?

Plus I have been scumhunting, and I'm at that point where it to me make sense to look at opportunity which I've seen from Kitty/Frogster/Fwog (less sure on the last one).

EBWOP, Grammar issue.

[StrangeMatter]

Have a really awful headache today, I'm gonna come back tomorrow before EOD.

[StrangeMatter]

So I know the deadline is coming up very soon. We definitely need a compromise somewhere.

I'm very much at the point where I despise ending days early (see my past two Mini games, I got hammered early, Dwlee got hammered early and screwed us over both times).

[StrangeMatter]

Completely off topic, but can I suggest that you just use bold to point out what you see instead of coloring posts?

[StrangeMatter]

Hang on if my count is right that's a hammer.

[StrangeMatter]

PFFT no, I'm just bad at reading votes again.

Don't mind the above post.

[StrangeMatter]

GGs town.

A very unfortunate game I think. I do often make spelling mistakes that bug me enough as town to correct them even as town. Yes part of it is that I don't want to get scumread off it but also not letting people misread what I say since it happens a lot.

[StrangeMatter]

GGs town.

A very unfortunate game I think. I do often make spelling mistakes that bug me enough as town to correct them even as town. Yes part of it is that I don't want to get scumread off it but also not letting people misread what I say since it happens a lot.

Not sure what you're on about but GG

Essentially, my grammar mistakes are normally NAI anyways (especially this happening over many different games) since I'm far too self conscious still to not make grammatical errors as both town and scum.

Can't win them all but I definitely felt like this was a weaker scum game especially in terms of finding PRs.