Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Lukewarm]

I don't think that people should be locking in right away

VOTE: keep

So probably don't do that lol

[Lukewarm]

Has anyone looked at the last run of this game?

[Lukewarm]

Because the Keep is where I wanted to go last time (I was in the original running of this game), and I ended up at the Wall, and it was not a good time

[Lukewarm]

At the

Gate

, one Guardian player is chosen by the Saboteurs overnight to be publicly confirmed as a Guardian. The Guardians must vote to eliminate the Saboteur to win.
At the

Wall

, there are no special rules. Guardians must vote to eliminate the Saboteur to win.
At the

Keep

, Guardians must vote on one player. If that player is a Guardian, the Guardians wins; otherwise, the Saboteurs win.

The Gate is a 50/50 with a townie and a scum 1v1ing.
The Wall is a 33/66 in scum's favor / hardest game for us to win.
The Keep is a 66/33 in our favor, easiest game for us to win.

Last time I asked for the Keep, but scum!Ydra (Briar) locked her self in right away, and then Anastasia quickly followed her so that they could be in the same game as her. Then I went into a very, very long back and forth with ffery over the last slot of the game, but I ended up at the Wall. I went from wanting into the easiest game for us to win to ending up in the hardest.

Spoiler:

and then I was the game losing vote at the end of the game

[Lukewarm]

it doesn't make much sense for scum!me to want to go to keep with town!you to flirt with you and then vote you the winner dear

This feels very much like the last game

[Lukewarm]

probably not lol

[Lukewarm]

I'll go where I'm told to go. The game looked like an interesting exercise in ways to play out MeLo. I have absolutely zero preference in where I end up.

Like, you want people to suggest where you go? Or are you wanting to be the final person who ends up in just what ever slot is left?

[Lukewarm]

I'll go where I'm told to go. The game looked like an interesting exercise in ways to play out MeLo. I have absolutely zero preference in where I end up.

Like, you want people to suggest where you go? Or are you wanting to be the final person who ends up in just what ever slot is left?

I'll fill in unless someone wants me in a particular location.

This seems like a town post?

Scum would want to make sure they end up in different places, so "I'll go where ever is left" seems townie I think.

[Lukewarm]

I would not be opposed to Toog coming to the keep with me an Ari. They are the only two people on this player list I have ever played with, so might help us read each other ?

[Lukewarm]

But that would push Tanner out of his top pick.... So maybe not.

I take it back lol

[Lukewarm]

Ari, wanna talk about why you locked into the keep?

Like a page ago, you seemed okay with the keep or the gate

[Lukewarm]

Ari, wanna talk about why you locked into the keep?

Like a page ago, you seemed okay with the keep or the gate

I think it is pretty clear why I want to go to Keep with Tanner <3

But you locked in before he did lol

[Lukewarm]

i said i want to go to the keep specifically so i can get voted - i'm unsure why you're showing this compassion considering that?

Because getting locked out of your top pick is a bit annoyng, and that is what happened to me last game. I am not sure why you wanting to get voted should make me less inclined to letting you into the keep. Am I missing something?

I believe that the best strat for the Keep is to collectively, meaning everyone not just the people in the keep, to chose who we think is most likely to be scum, and then give that player the choice of who they are going to vote between the other two.

So, this mini games will play out one of a few ways:

The scum is given vote power, and we always win.
I am given vote power, and I am trying to read the other two (functionally the same as being the IC in the gate)
The other townie in the keep is given vote power, and I have to town it up. I am at least somewhat confident in my ability to do that.

You being in there with me versus someone else does not drastically change any of those I don't think?

[Lukewarm]

since the other time I played this setup I drew scum

I did not realize that there was another old running of this game - might look at that at some point, but that is not a thing that will happen today lol

[Lukewarm]

(on that note, lukewarm, we played together in the mini normal that tris modded.)

Oh, your dats lol.

That same game is my only experience with Ari as well.

[Lukewarm]

@lukewarm, i'm trying to brute-force my own vote through. more specifically, my idea was me + two scummiest people. the fact that you jumped into the keep yourself meant that either you're volunteering yourself to be one of the scummy people (unlikely) or that you have no interest in me making that plan a reality. if the latter is the case, that means i have no reason to volunteer to the keep anymore because my strategy is gone. so the "tanner won't be able to go to the keep then" is completely misplaced; i already don't want to go to the keep. and the fact you didn't connect that feels kiiiind of like scum more worried about keeping up appearances than a townie critically thinking about what i'm saying.

I kinda locked into the keep before I read any of the posts made in game at that point.

I see your suggested plan, but I did not realize that you wanting to go to the keep was contingent on us all agreeing to go with it. I guess since the keep is my top choice, I kinda assumed you might still have it as your top choice sans-plan

If you don't want the keep anymore, then I will take back my take back in 47

[Lukewarm]

here's the old game.
here's the old scum PT.

Here is the one I was in
and the scum chat for it

This game was a scum sweep. The won the keep and then won the wall.

Scum locked in pretty early this game, all three scum were in the first 4 vote ins

[Lukewarm]

i like implos strategy

also if we r throwing the three scummiest into the same spot, it doesnt actually matter which spot we throw them into.

Do you think Luke is town?

nope

Sad.

I am leaning town on Ari atm for the way she has interacted with the Tanner slot

[Lukewarm]

which is why i think your early lock in was quite scummy

I mean, in that game we all waffled and debated on where to go, and the scum team all got first pick of their locations. I don't feel like every one holding off forever really helped us that game, and it definitely made the game harder for me personally

[Lukewarm]

I think from that game you learned that collectivism is better for the town and that scum have an incentive to just take what they want in order to not let town dictate assignments. So you deciding to unilaterally jump feels like a bit of a scumclaim to me

No, what I learned was that if I stay uncommitted and talk with everyone over every single minigame, then the scum team and the people not willing to talk are going to all just lock themselves in before the rest of us actually come to a consensus, and I will get pushed out of the game that I want to be in and can just as easily lose anyways

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm, do you think you being in the Keep increases the town's probability of winning? Or is it simply something you want?

If the former why, if the latter then why should we take you at your word here?

Bit of both.

Last game, I was in the Wall. I both did not enjoy it and I lost it, so that was a double no for me.

So that just leaves the Keep or the Gate.

The gate would not have been the end of the world, but the keep still has more going for it.

If I get widely town read, then I win. If the scum in the keep gets scum read, I win. If I get scum read, and given vote power in the Keep, then I functionally become the IC vote at the Gate, but then there is the Real IC that I know that I can trust to talk my decision out with.

There are multiple win states for me, and even in the worst position, it doesn't look bad, and I am happy to work with the IC on who to chose at that point. I like having other people out there that I feel like I can trust to work on things together, and if I were at the Gate then that is not guaranteed the way it is at the Keep

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm, do you think you being in the Keep increases the town's probability of winning? Or is it simply something you want?

If the former why, if the latter then why should we take you at your word here?

Bit of both.

-snip-

I guess what I mean is, what makes you special here? Sure you lost at the wall last game. The wall is the hardest thing for town to win, so that's not surprising. It'll be hard for

whoever

winds up there, and two townies will wind up there (unless we win d1).

If

anyone

gets widely townread at Keep, they win. If the sum in the keep gets scum read,

anyone

will win keep. It seems like your priority is "i win my minigame" rather than "town wins at least 2/3 minigames". Like, no duh you're most likely to win your game if you join the easiest game.

Maybe I am not special here, but winning one game seems likely to help us get to two wins.

I am also not super confident in my Elo ability in general. I don't think I have ever voted correctly in Elo in any agme yet? I know I have voted in correctly in Elo 3 times.so I might be being selfish putting myself in the easier game, but putting myself in the easier game feels like the right play to make

[Lukewarm]

I voted correctly in melo one game, because we had two players cross vote, clearing me and and another person, and working together we solved it. Which is the worst case scenario for the Keep (working with the IC to solve it).

You might be right tho - I just don't want to be the reason we lose, so I put myself in the game where I was least likely to be the reason for that

[Lukewarm]

I generally don't think that everyone should be locking in before assignments are made, which is why I said that everyone should not do it, as I did it. I selfishly made the selfish decision like a week ago that I was gonna lock myself in right away based off of how the last game played out.

If you feel that unilateral lock ins are bad, why did you unilaterally lock yourself in immediately upon seeing me? It looked liked you decided that you getting to buddy up with Tanner this game was more important to you then doing consensus assignments. Well, I decided not getting pushed out of the keep two games in a row was more important to me then doing consensus assignments.

I have more thoughts on your lock in that kinda annoy me (but I don't think are scummy, just annoyed) but would out your main if I brought it up, so I will avoid it.

[Lukewarm]

Are there other people out there who have preferences for the game that they are in, or a preference for who they end up with?

[Lukewarm]

Are there other people out there who have preferences for the game that they are in, or a preference for who they end up with?

Looking back, I see Toog saying that they have no preference and then DArby saying that they want the

DArby, do you have any thoughts on who would go with you?

None of Imaginality, Implosion, numberQ, VP Baltar have said anything one way or the other

[Lukewarm]

Looking back, I see Toog saying that they have no preference and then DArby saying that they want the

Gate

DArby, do you have any thoughts on who would go with you?

None of Imaginality, Implosion, numberQ, VP Baltar have said anything one way or the other

[Lukewarm]

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

[Lukewarm]

Because of where my vla is likely to land, I think the first or third minigame might make the most sense for me.

The games don't happen in any set order, they can be resolved in what ever way we choose.

I think we clear the Gate first? But I am not really sure if thats the best way to do it

[Lukewarm]

consensus assignments are either done or they are not done

there is no middle ground

I believe it is optimal for town to do consensus assignments but if it is broken, there is no point.

I disagree on a single vote in breaking consensus choices. I mean, other then you and me, every one else has held off and is open to talking about it.

Like, with Implosions plan of putting the 3 towniest in one game, the 3 scummiest in another, and 3 nulls in the last still would have worked perfectly fine. What ever category I landed in would go with me to the Keep. Now that you have voted in too, now it means that it will only work if you and I end up at the same consensus read.

And like, if you are town and think I am scum, then from you pov, you locking in to the keep with me eliminated the possibility to put your three biggest scum reads together to go for the day 1 win

[Lukewarm]

Uh, actually, I think I am gonna drop that actually - I can just accept vote power in Day 2.

[Lukewarm]

[quote="In post 161, VP Baltar"][/quote]

I think that any game where we put the three scummiest people, is going to make that a really hard game, no matter where it goes.

So, 3 scummiest goes to the Gate, one becomes an IC, and then that player is left to sort the two scummiest players in the game. So, would be a hard choice.

3 scummiest at the Wall is a 3 man scummy elo

3 scummiest at the keep makes the easiest town win hard.

[Lukewarm]

What about putting who ever is the best at Elo at the gate? A good elo player getting the IC could be good?

[Lukewarm]

Well me and Ari both openly said we are bad at Elo, so we don't go to the gate lol

[Lukewarm]

Well me and Ari both openly said we are bad at Elo, so we don't go to the gate lol

I know the irony here

[Lukewarm]

Y'all are trying too hard maybe with this, especially in light of two people already being locked in.

I mean, we have to figure out who goes where Somehow. If not like this, what do you suggest?

[Lukewarm]

1 - yes, I meant the royal we

2 - I still plan on weighing in on where people go, despite my early vot int

[Lukewarm]

Hello, I have not read up yet, but I was thinking about the best way to set up the groups, and I remembered in the last game we tried to put all three of our strongest town reads in the same zone. The idea being that we would get the most information out of the switch, because if that zone has no switches then we learn right away that one of the three top town reads must be scum.

In that game, it did not quite work out in our favor because 1)Scum!Ydra was the top town read in the game and then 2)the scum team managed to get 1:1:1 split and so the swaps did not give us the info that we expected. But if either one of those two are not true in this game, then that could be a thing?

I don't know, just spit balling.

ATM, the people that I have gotten the strongest town pings off of are Ari, Implo, and Toog. Of course, with Ari already in with me, we can't make that group exactly. But, depending on how people end up reading me by end of day we could do me+Ari+1 or we could do Implo+Toog+other people's town read. Since Ari suspects me, I feel like she would be against the Me+ari+1, so maybe the Implo+Toog+1 option?

[Lukewarm]

Implosion, you think there is an optimal order to the games?

I don't think there is. I'm theoretically open to arguments about it. There's an argument for doing gate early because the IC doesn't get locked out of discussion, but also an argument for doing it later because it reveals the fewest people's alignments.

In practice the optimal order I think is to pick whichever location would give the most surprising information if scum were to win it (or optimize for something like that) and resolve it first.

I did not think about the lower number of flips from the Gate. I suggested gate first because of the IC sticking around, and they could focus on each game as it came up

[Lukewarm]

btw who are we liking for the 3 scummiest thrown into Gate?

I think rn my too early list is:

1. numberQ
4. imaginality
6. Toogeloo

Do you have reasons for these, outside of post count? I have had no thoughts on either numberQ or imaginality, which is kind of a bad sign, but Toog I like Toog

[Lukewarm]

193 pings me, in a "trying to get toog to view it as Us vs Them" kinda way ?

[Lukewarm]

that post was me questioning implo's read on me. part of me wants to say that means the team is imaginality/implosion/baltar because why else would he mix up you two, but realistically i know it's probably just a mistake.

Maybe I am just lost in the sauce of Implosion's mech talk, but he seems really town to me based on his approach to the game.

Filtering back through to find what made you think this, in 103 Implosion expressed a town read on VP and Tanner. Then imaginality said that it was a VP read on Tanner. So VP was tangentially involved with that discussion?

I don't think I buy into this team solve

[Lukewarm]

I did not think about the lower number of flips from the Gate. I suggested gate first because of the IC sticking around, and they could focus on each game as it came up

Wouldn't resolving the game that will give the most associatives after flip be the best to resolve first?

I'm not sure which game that would be, but I would think having the most associatives to use on the subsequent games would be the way to play.

The point of that post was to say that my original suggestion was wrong. Or at least, made without considering that factor.

[Lukewarm]

hm. i just realized none of those three are assigned yet. we could shove them into the same location.

Looks like a potential town bloc to me. So sure. Where would you put us?

(Also, only two people are assigned, so making a point like that group is avoiding assignment sounds forced)

Why do you have imaginality as "potential town bloc" worthy right now?

[Lukewarm]

does anyone else read 204 as me shading those three people for not assigning yet?

I did not think that it was shade

[Lukewarm]

I think maybe I could go to Keep with you, it would be a fun date <3

Where would you like me to go?

if we're playing seriously - i'd want you to go to gate if you're town. i want you to be town, but it's obviously too early to tell.

gosh you can't tell I am town already?

Performative

Ari does in fact do this in other games with Dats/Tanner. She swooned over him all game the last time I played with both lol

Spoiler:

waiting for my hero.

fear not, i am here!

VOTE: Flubber

Close to My Heart: Datisi

Datisi is the hero of our story, he is so handsome and cute and I would be so sad if he were scum, call it a wish of the heart, I think he is good. I could wax poetic for days about how amazing he is but I don't think you would like to read that? Besides it might embarrass him and I wouldn't want that.

I guess a way to describe my read on Datisi is,



He makes my heart sing.

[s/poiler=For Datisi][/sp/oiler]

VOTE: Meg

I am not doing this just to see my name next to Datisi's

Really.

[Lukewarm]

I think maybe I could go to Keep with you, it would be a fun date <3

Where would you like me to go?

if we're playing seriously - i'd want you to go to gate if you're town. i want you to be town, but it's obviously too early to tell.

gosh you can't tell I am town already?

Performative

Ari does in fact do this in other games with Dats/Tanner. She swooned over him all game the last time I played with both lol

Spoiler:

waiting for my hero.

fear not, i am here!

VOTE: Flubber

Close to My Heart: Datisi

Datisi is the hero of our story, he is so handsome and cute and I would be so sad if he were scum, call it a wish of the heart, I think he is good. I could wax poetic for days about how amazing he is but I don't think you would like to read that? Besides it might embarrass him and I wouldn't want that.

I guess a way to describe my read on Datisi is,



He makes my heart sing.

[s/poiler=For Datisi][/sp/oiler]

VOTE: Meg

I am not doing this just to see my name next to Datisi's

Really.

[Lukewarm]

but Toog I like Toog

can you spell this out for me?

also, i'm probably getting tunnelled, but i think i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location. these interactions bug me.

I liked his entry about being willing to float where ever for the games, when I would expect scum to be wanting to have some control over it. I also noticed that he did not lock into the keep, even through I kinda invited him to twice. And atm I am leaning town on Ari, so I would expect a scum player to be almost looking for a reason to take that last slot in the keep, and he just ignored me - both times lol. That would have been pretty good cover for him too I think, he already said he didn't care where he went, so he could just say he was following my suggestion. So unless I am just wrong on Ari, that is a pretty good +town for Toog imo.

I have also seen Toog get scum read for lower content, but I think that is just how he plays, so I was hoping Ari would tell me if they had suspicion for anything more then that.

[Lukewarm]

i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location.

That seems fine by me. I don't trust you to call an entire location, but if you want to test your theory in a 2/3, I don't think there is a lot of harm in that.

Can you explain this to me?

He is trying to push 3 scum together, and he suggested you + imagin + 1, and you are fine with him going for that?

Are you wanting your top scum read in that last slot? Your top town read? I am unsure the benefit that you see from accepting this proposal from him short of getting him off your case...

[Lukewarm]

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

Wait. I thought you wanted to link up VP and imagin because you thought they were partners?

[Lukewarm]

we ran an impromptu karaoke Song Contest, Lukewarm won with by singing Snow (Hey Oh) by Red Hot Chili Peppers which all agreed was the most impressive vocally albeit also the most confusing temperature-wise

I get a Lukewarm joke/pun in most of my games. This is hands down the best one yet lol

[Lukewarm]

I think it's a mistake to say scum would 100% want to have control over where they're going. Like yeah, they need some amount of control so that they aren't all in the same location. But depending on playstyle, I can easily see scum just shrugging their shoulders when deciding where to go. Particularly as an entrance to the game, where there's less pressure for scum to pick their location compared to some potential later scenario. It's not difficult to say first thing "I don't care where I go", then later come up with a reason to go somewhere specific.

They may also predict reactions like yours, and are seeking the towncred.

Well again, it wasn't just the entrance. It was the entrance

plus

not accepting the invitation to the Keep.

Seems to me that he is either town who really does not care about where he goes, or he is scum who does not want to go the Keep - so my Ari town read is propping him up a bit, because I am not sure why else he would not want to go to the keep when given an easy opportunity.

[Lukewarm]

I must inform you Ari, I am both gay and married. I might not make a good flirt for you - platonic cloud watching can be fun too tho! lmao

Spoiler:

although your sudden 180 on me is a bit scary, but I am struggling to see a scum motivation to offering to be the one to vote (again)

[Lukewarm]

I just want to be pocketed by someone with good taste in music :<

Spoiler:

[Lukewarm]

I have a confession to make

[Lukewarm]

I did not pick out a single one of those songs. Whole list was stolen from someone else, and I feel dirty lol

[Lukewarm]

For some reason, the idea of sharing music with other people like properly gives me a panic attack, so... :/

Even to try and pocket you, I just don't know that I can do it

[Lukewarm]

I have been on an emotional journey here tonight.

From maybe I'll just have some fun and play along, to instant panic once I started thinking about songs to actually share, to thinking it would be funny to share a list of songs that you would possibly recognize from another time there was a song sharing session on site, to feeling weird about that, to now feeling embarrassed that I mentioned the panic attack thing.

So, uh. I think I'm gonna call it a night.

[Lukewarm]

luke, do you think i should be townreading you by now?

I don't know that I have a good answer to that. In my games that I have gotten town read day 1, I was unclear why it happened, and the same is true for being scum read day 1. I always feel like I am a shining beacon of townieness at all times, but then it does not always play out that way. But I am here, and doing my best

[Lukewarm]

on a completely unrelated note, how can i convince you i'm town, luke?

This question, uh, did not help.

I have been kinda watching you ever since post 83. You suddenly deciding that you " i

already

don't want to go to the keep"

I was surprised that you were suddenly so turned off of the keep, I expected that you be your top choice even without your plan. And your plan, frankly, wins the keep for you whether you are town or scum. My worry has been that you had a plan to win the keep as scum, but if that plan did not work, you were going to transition to angling for the wall.

So, you being uninterested in the keep when I was saying that I could vote for Ari, and still uninterested with Ari said that they could vote for me - but suddenly reinterested if we both commit to voting the third slot is giving me the heebie-jeebies

-----

Not that I am married to you being scum, more that I have mixed feelings on you atm. While watching you, I liked the stuff you were pointing out about Baltar and imaginality., and in the back of my head was thinking that I might see if I could try and get the games to resolve in an order that would get one or both of them flip before you toMorrow.

[Lukewarm]

luke, do you think i should be townreading you by now?

I don't know that I have a good answer to that. In my games that I have gotten town read day 1, I was unclear why it happened, and the same is true for being scum read day 1. I always feel like I am a shining beacon of townieness at all times, but then it does not always play out that way. But I am here, and doing my best

Presumably you thought we would town read you and that is why the keep was a good idea for you, no?

Yeah. I get town read in most of my games, but I don't really know why. I have been town ~20 times, and I have been miseliminated exactly once, and even that time it was because there was a mechanic in play that might punish us if we killed the scummiest player, so it was decided to take a paranoia shot. And am strongly town read fairly often. But I have yet to really figure out what does that?

I wish I could figure out what causes me to be town read in my town games, because on the flip side, I have been eliminated in all 4 of my scum games

[Lukewarm]

because on the flip side, I have been eliminated in all 4 of my scum games

Actually, I was eliminated in 3 and then vig shot in the 4th

[Lukewarm]

And the original question was "should I be town reading you?" And the answer is - probably? but I dont really know why.

I just kinda show up and try my best and generally get town read, and I am here and trying my best, so... probably?

[Lukewarm]

uh... the thing that peaked my interests was that you didn't go to "being assigned to where it would benefit town" you went to "i already don't want to go to the keep." And that is what surprised me. Not wanting to go to the Keep without your plan. And, I kinda try to read slots in a "what I would do/think if I were scum" and if I were scum, I would not want to go to the keep because I would not want to be in the hardest game to win, unless I had a plan, so heebie-jeebies.

And, why the hell would I have mentioned it before, if I am actively watching to see if you keep moving in the direction that I think you might be? That totally defeats the purpose

[Lukewarm]

Tanner's a stronger TR for me than Luke. I disagree with this point:

[snip]

I have been kinda watching you ever since post 83. You suddenly deciding that you " i

already

don't want to go to the keep"

I was surprised that you were suddenly so turned off of the keep, I expected that you be your top choice even without your plan. And your plan, frankly, wins the keep for you whether you are town or scum. My worry has been that you had a plan to win the keep as scum, but if that plan did not work, you were going to transition to angling for the wall.

So, you being uninterested in the keep when I was saying that I could vote for Ari, and still uninterested with Ari said that they could vote for me - but suddenly reinterested if we both commit to voting the third slot is giving me the heebie-jeebies

[snip]

To me, the evolution of Tanner's thought process here only looks unnatural when it's cherry picked like this.

I feel like you (and possibly tanner, not sure) are taking this as "why I think tanner is definitly scum here" when it is much more "why I am not comfortable planning to vote him atm"

To be frank, if it were me + ari + tanner, I would either try to get myself voted or just vote for Ari > Tanner. So, if people want imaginality's plan, then tanner should not be the choice for it.

[Lukewarm]

Maybe you already answered this, my bad if so. But who would you be comfortable voting in that 3rd slot?

Implo is probably my top choice atm

[Lukewarm]

my preferred plan was ruined. what gives you the idea that i should keep jumping at going to the keep when the main reason that i wanted to go there is now unachievable?

That is not what I was saying.

you should've mentioned it because it defeats your whole point of "tanner is opportunistically trying to join the keep"? the latter part of your post makes it seems like you were trying to honestly evaluate my slot, but the fact that you failed to mention something so important is not giving any vibes of honesty at all.

This is wild though. Like I don't think you are even thinking about what I said I was doing. My read on you was you as null-ish, with a worry that I was tracking to see if it played out a certain way.

Why would I announce to you that I was null reading you, and then also tell you the metric of what I was tracking you on, basically telling you what to avoid doing if you really were scum. Someone that I am trying some what to learn from on how to solve games refers to it as being in a "information gathering stage"

But, I dropped that specifically because I was being asked if I was currently comfortable with planning to vote for you in the Keep. So, at that moment I decided that it was better to lay it all out there, and explain why I was not comfortable doing that.

[Lukewarm]

Basically, I have been tracking where Tanner is angling himself for, to see if he angled himself for the Wall once his Keep plan stopped working, because the Wall is the hardest game for the town to win, easiest for the scum to win. So, kinda where I would expect him to angle for as scum, but kinda where I would be expecting him to avoid as town given

the keep is still my favourite choice due to it being the easiest and me being bad at mafia, but eh.

And, he kinda has been. I'm pulling up the places where Tanner has mentioned going since he said he no longer wants the keep.

Spoiler:

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

assuming this is asking as town - solely depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there. maybe saying it out loud is the mistake here, but /shrug.

Actually maybe 3 scummiest at the gate?

i would support this.

i want to say gate, so that i don't end up there.

you mean wall? if so, i actually don't hate the idea of going to the wall with you and imaginality, sending implo to the keep, and throwing the rest at the gate.

There has been no posts about whether it makes sense for him to go to the Keep. There has been multiple posts about being against the Gate. And stated preference towards the Wall.

So yes, I have some paranoia on Tanner, in a "This is how I would be approaching the game as scum" - Come up with a plan to try and win the hardest mini game, but if that plan doesn't pan out, lean towards the wall because it would then be the easiest game to win, and I don't really think I am that good at the game, so should probably place myself at the easier game.

-----

Do I think that this is a slam dunk case on Tanner - no. That is why I was not out here shouting it into the streets. It was something that I have been keeping an eye on though, to see how it played out once people started actually locking into places. -- and it is something that makes me uncomfortable agreeing to vote him right now.

So, when I saw that being suggested I felt the need to explain it. Because if I just agreed to it, and then no swap happened, being in the keep with ari, tanner, and myself scares me that Ari would vote for Tanner before I got a chance to voice my concern and us all talk about it. But if I said no to that plan, I knew that people would want to know why. So, here we are.

[Lukewarm]

ok i would not jump into tanner's arms immediately I am not that easy ~.~

Maybe not, but the idea felt like it would be a night mare. I would have to on the spot decide if you were going to vote tanner right away (giving scum tanner the win) or if I needed to try and preempt that by voting you, giving you the win if I had it backwards or if I was going to have the time to actually talk with you both.

All I was trying to do was explain that I would not agree with imaginality's plan if Tanner was the third and why, but then it turned into A Thing

[Lukewarm]

Hey everyone, hope you all had a good Christmas!

I spent a good part of my Christmas Eve rereading this game.

I did an iso dive on each slot to put together my thoughts. I see the Tanner reveal, which... surprises me. Will need to reevaluate some things

[Lukewarm]

Here are my thoughts on each slot after doing an ISO dive on them - apologies in advance, these are rough. Did not find time to do a second pass

The Keep

Ari

Early offering to vote Tanner in the keep

36 - Ari votes herself into the Keep in response to me voting myself into the Keep. The way this plays out (and later comments Ari makes saying that they thought it was a scum claim on my part 102, 107). Look to me like they were taking actions to step in the way of the perceived scum plan.

Follow up from before with making the offer to Tanner, Ari then offers to vote for me in 293, and 411 where Ari seems to be assuming that they get the vote in the keep. Ari does not appear to be playing to win the keep - I think this points pretty strongly towards town Ari unless she is swapped out.

Another thing that stood out to me was the change in tone with Tanner after I out my suspicions of the slot. Basically all of Ari's ISO from 344 to 384 turns and starts questioning Tanner, following up on the new concerns. 350 picking apart his original plan, and the rest I think is all trying to get a rise and reaction from him to sort him better. 368, following up on his current game choice, actively building off of my points against tanner.

This gives me flashbacks to Ari in our prior game.

Spoiler:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
This is a link to Ari's iso from that game. -- It very much is the same style and tone, even with the same Dats flirting. But when they see something that worries them, they switch.

They started with a laissez-faire attitude, that I think is pretty clearly an alt gimmick.

But then their hunger to solve has poked through that facade at various points.

This is a quote from ME that game (post 1436) And it is the same feeling I got from Ari when they turned their questions towards Tanner after I talked about their game choice. Although, to be fair, there is less concrete solving coming from Ari this game, since they started holding their reads a little closer to their chest, but that desire to pick at a suspicion on Tanner over powered the alt gimmick of wanting to blindly flirt with him.

I feel really good calling Ari town here.


Implosion

post 79 is a pro town post I think. And it is his genuine thoughts on the set up, given it being the same that he outlined in the scum chat for that game, post 11 https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12894505

89 -- hmmm. Him linking directly to his scum chat, where he made that similar post, almost undercuts the townie points from 79. Because, yes they look exactly the same as his genuine thoughts, but he also pointed everyone directly to where we would need to go to see that.

I did reall like his follow up with me [118, 129] and my decision to go the keep. Felt like he was trying to get to that info to sort me.

I also find his 178 very pro town to make. Scum implo wants me making the vote to avoid the scum in the keep from being forced to make the vote, so trying to talk me out accepting it is pretty +town for him imo. And, this one (more so then post 79) is something that he very easily could have just stayed out of. Like it was a fight between me and Ari, and he was not in the keep yet. I think that scum implo ignores my post about being the one to vote.

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
I am leaning towards them both being town here But, if there is no swap in the keep, I think I get get the vote power. If I had to chose right this second, I think I would vote Ari?

Like I said, I have played with Ari before, and she is hitting the same cords with me. And then with Implo, I also realized that a lot of his iso is focused on mech, and while his mech all seems really spot on and pro-town, I could possibly see scum hiding behind that? But again, this is just "if no swap" - otherwise, I am leaning both town here.

[Lukewarm]

Gate

Tanner

His plan for the keep does nothing for me reading it back, because that plan wins it for town tanner and for scum tanner, so he could very much want that plan either way.

21 feels

off

to me. like the "I want you to be town, bit it's obviously too early to tell" feels... idk if performative is the right word, maybe forced?

I also don't like his interaction with Ari 72 and 74 72 feels like a lot of words to say nothing, but then to drop his town lean on Ari for some reason.

I am strugling to see the town motivation behind

why would your read of me even matter if I am going to be voting for you?

those are words that aren't yet actions, and i'm still not sure if i will be calling that bluff.

His response here does not make sense to me. Her "bluff" is that she is going to vote for him, which if she is telling the truth wins the game for him regardless of his alignment. If she is "bluffing" what is the concern for town Tanner? IF she is scum bluffing, then she you give her voting power, and town tanner wins. IF she is town bluffing, then she is giving voting power, and tanner is in a 1v1 with the other person in the keep - which is where he later says that he wants to be, the person in the 1v1, not the person making the vote

depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there.

So this worry about "calling her bluff" feels more like scum tanner, worried that if he acceprts her offer, she will scum read him for it and then vote the other person.

-Also, all the things I brought up day one about his game choice
-Also, also, his attempt to force the implo, baltar, imafin game felt contrived
-Also, also, also - him jumping to the gate, after I said that I did not think that town tanner would want the all bothers me.

Maybe I just conf biased myself, but looking back over his iso, I'm pretty sure he is scum.


imaginality

His 87 entrance is a mixed bag for me.

I like his question for toog. Like his response to me, and I like that he is advocating for us to not give up on implo's plan just because me and ari were locked in at that point.

But on the other hand, His response to numberQ felt forced, like he was looking for something to comment on. Not a fan of "any early reads" question at the top of page 2. I also don't like that he has an idea for how to sort the game, his nomination method, that he mentions but never brings it up again.


I like 159

Like the mech points in 172 about game resolution

Really don't liek 193. Combo of the shade at Ari and the linking up with Toog, both give me hives.

His back and forth with Tanner over the mix up, was... weird. But, I don't think that it happens with tanner/imaginality if they are s/s.

His Ari and Tanner S/S idea is also... weird. Not sure if it is scummy, but definitly weird.

283 is the best post of the game lol

I like 209

First person I fell like I have a less then definitive read on. Like, in a vacuum, I think I would lean scum here, slightly? But I also see a lot of interactions with Tanner that I dont think come from s/s, so that is helping him some from my pov.

So, null I guess?


Baltar

Baltar has some weird interactions with Tanner, where he first says he doesn't care where he goes, but then makes multiple posts about being in the same game with Tanner. Not really sure how to feel about that. Definitly worse if Tanner is town (one way to gurantee that the day 1 auto loss never happens is to get any townie to agree to go to the same place as you)

Huh, just saw in Baltar's iso that he asked implo about the scum chat before he posted it - did not realize when I was isoing implo since he did not post it as a response to baltar's question. That kinda undoes that little worry about implo pointing it out for us to see that he was being genuine.

Don't like

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

In post 135, implosion wrote:
(and also... keep in mind that in that game scum moved 2nd yes, but the rest of the first 5 people to move were town)

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Ari was actively trying to say I was scum for voting first, and he agreed with Ari (at the time only me and ari had voted in, so I doubt he thought ari was calling herself scum) - But immediately 180'ed to say that my vote was +town once he got push back on it. Which feels like one or both of those those thoughts were not genuine, and it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract. Do not like.

His sudden strong town read on imaginality feels like it was pulled out of a hat.

257 does not make sense to me - I asked him about it (286), but he never responded :/

I feel like most of his iso leaves me feeling empty, little thoughts about him one way or another.

I want to say scum here. The early stuff with tanner would be weird for partners tho? Maybe distancing, but then they really did end up at the same place... hmm.

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
I think it is Tanner. I don't feel great about either of the others, but I think it is just Tanner here.

But if either of the others swap out, then they are people I would give a second look over

[Lukewarm]

The Wall

Toog

I mentioned before that I like Toog's entrance for town.

His iso feels a little more barren on an iso-read vs a real time read though.

I still think it is +town that he did not engage with me on possibly joining the keep. Obviously scum!toog could not jump in, but me voicing a town lean on him, mentioning him joining the keep, and then me and ari getting into a 1v1 - that would have had to have been an appealing slot for scum!toog, and I would have expected him to at least test the waters on joining, asking about if he should, ect. Instead there was radio silence.

Again, there is not a ton more in his iso... so I would say that I am leaning town here, but not as strongly as I had Ari or Implo.


DArby / Pav (hi Pav )

So, I decided to check if he site wide flaked.

He was force replaced Dec 22, 10 am. He was online posting in another game (that has since ended) on the 22nd, 1 am. So he was here on site, and chose not to pick up his prod :/

But when he was here:
-he tried to throw a random wifom arguement that me and ari could be s/s insta locking into the keep (50).
-Said he would be hard to read, at least I think that is what he was saying (65)
-called me scummy (149)
-a mech post I guess (150)

Obviously there is not much to go on, and I might be biased since his

only

read was that I was scummy, but this does not look good to me.

Pav, if you are town you've got your work cut out for you


numberQ

first three posts all feel like nothing posts

Liked his DArby thoughts in 281

numberQ's stances around mine and tanners 1v1 feel off.

Tanner's a stronger TR for me than Luke. I disagree with this point
{snip}
To me, the evolution of Tanner's thought process here only looks unnatural when it's cherry picked like this.

I don't like that this is phrased in a way that does not actually give a read on me - like he left himself room to say that meant that I was a weaker tr, or that I was a sr. It almost feels like the first line is saying that I am a weaker TR, but then saying it looked like I cherry picked my points seems like it implies I am scummy.

And then in 361

Lukewarm and Tanner are both being very persuasive right now imo. Does anyone else have a take on all this? Because I think there's 1 scum between them, but I keep going back and forth on who it is.

This progression feels weird.

The rest of his iso feels empty. Even when posting, it feels like its just mech talk.

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
Of these three, I think that DArby and numberQ end up cross voting and Toog decides.

I don't know how one even decides here tho...

I think that the best solution is for this game to always go last, and for toog to force number and pav to weigh in heavily on both other games. The dream being that we win the other two, and this game never needs to be resolved.

But otherwise, the decision will have to come from their associations on the first two games.

[Lukewarm]

Obviously, my Tanner stuff can be ignored... But the rest is basically where I am at with everyone else.

[Lukewarm]

Oh GOD I'm at the keep with Luke

LUKE

IS THIS THE GAME

Hi Pav

If you are asking if I think that this is the game that we are both town... To be real with you, your predecessor has not done you any favors.

[Lukewarm]

Did you read the game over the night phase pav?

[Lukewarm]

Looking at the games list post swap, my gut reaction is that the scum team is Pav, numberQ, + 1 from the Gate.

I need to look back at the two in the Gate now that I know Tanner is town. I remember that they both has weird interactions with him.

[Lukewarm]

Was getting ready to ask if you understood the keep mechanics lol

[Lukewarm]

Pav, tell me why I shouldn't just vote for Ari here?

pedit: oh.

[Lukewarm]

I believe that the best strat for the Keep is to collectively, meaning everyone not just the people in the keep, to chose who we think is most likely to be scum, and then give that player the choice of who they are going to vote between the other two.

So, this mini games will play out one of a few ways:

The scum is given vote power, and we always win.
I am given vote power, and I am trying to read the other two (functionally the same as being the IC in the gate)
The other townie in the keep is given vote power, and I have to town it up. I am at least somewhat confident in my ability to do that.

This is how we are playing the keep

[Lukewarm]

I said that, and then implo said something similar. Pretty sure that is the safest way for us to play this, gives us a fail safe if we are wrong on our top suspect

[Lukewarm]

I'll honor this if it's how the group wants to play it

Do you think there is something wrong with playing it this way? If yes, what?

[Lukewarm]

Yeah getting swapped threw me. Ok.

Did you put much thought into your original game. You, numberq, toog at the wall

[Lukewarm]

Yeah, true. It mainly just worked out that all three of us were here right now.

At some point today, I plan on looking back at baltar and imaginality. I think they are the two people that the tanner reveal could help with the most

[Lukewarm]

Just thinking abut the game, and I realized that Baltar and imaginality's are in a better position then anyone else to make reads across the games. Who ever is the town in that pair basically have a scum flip to work with. They can actually make associative reads and partner hunt against the other person.

[Lukewarm]

Luke always sounds that way. It's his curse.

can i get a rundown of your experience with luke, please?

Dug through my past games

Newbie 2065 - Pav repped in EoD 1, I was already uber town read. Both town, we won Day 2

Newbie 2067 - My first scum game on site. Pav thought I was town, but I died day 2 anyways because of a guilty on me

Newbie 2072 - I was town, Pav was scum. I thought he was town. Like, my top town read Town won anyways because the tracker had better reads then me lol

Open 822 - Popcorn mafia, I was scum. Pav scum read me by the end. Town won (also, side note popcorn is not a fun set up for scum :/)

Open 829 - Nightless exploder game. Both town, but he died before I ever made it to the thread lol

Shakespere uPick - We were both town, but I scum read him. town loss in the end

[Lukewarm]

LUKE

IS THIS THE GAME

In answering Tanner's question, I realized that we have already had the game in shakespere lol

[Lukewarm]

This is like, game #6 or something for us (Luke can tell you because he's the type to track things like that and I'm, uh, not)

This is #7 lol

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm also believes he can pocket Pavo and get him to vote for Lukewarm because of their history together.

I don't think I would have thought this if I was scum. In every single game we have played in together since my first scum game against him, Pav has taken a "I can never commit to a Luke town read" Turns out having a single good scum game against someone and they will never trust you again. (although, he did scum read me in my second scum game against him, but apparently that does not cancel out the first, cause he kept saying it lol)

[Lukewarm]

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

Yeah, Tanner should be involved in the choices for each game

[Lukewarm]

I think The Wall should resolve right away. I think both imaginality and Baltar have given at least a few stances that serve as associatives to do the Gate and the Keep.

I think that the game names a swapped here.

I am not following what makes the Gate better then the other two to go first? Someone (implo?) made a point about the gate only gives us two flips, while the other games give us three.

[Lukewarm]

Currently nursing a 100.7 low grade fever. I've felt like crap all week. It ain't Covid though, so small blessings.

Aww, feel better toog!

[Lukewarm]

Tanner, I am only skimming. Are we certain to have a scum at the gate? If yes, resolving that first makes sense. We can yeet imaginality into the sun.

um.

Does this make Baltar town?

Also, Baltar, you do realize that imaginality is only confirmed town from your POV, and not from tanner's, right?

[Lukewarm]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Can you explain this to me?

[Lukewarm]

Tanner although we are worlds apart may I still flirt with you? the two lads in the keep seem more interested in each other :/

him being the replace in and the swap choice put a spot light on him for me lol

[Lukewarm]

Also, Baltar, you do realize that imaginality is only confirmed

town

from your POV, and not from tanner's, right?

luke and vp confirmed scum ggwp

I hope this isn't serious lol

I did think his "we just yeet imaginality" line was not looking at the game from anyone elses pov

[Lukewarm]

I am trying to pick your brain to see what information that gives you about the rest of the game and why it might be so.

Right. Me getting your thoughts also is helpful though. Two way street and all. I'm merely asking you to comment on the gate. I understand wanting me to talk first on the other games.

"I want to know if you think I am town or scum before I tell you my reads" is an interesting angle to take as either alignment lol

[Lukewarm]

Ah you know what, I think my theorizing isn't considering the fact that scum HAD to swap. That might make scenario 2 more valid? Because then they definitely have to send either Toog or Pav to the Keep. Does it make sense for them to send Pav? I did lightly SR Toog D1. Though I don't think I gave off an indication it was a strong read at all. Just bad vibes mostly. Whereas I was pretty happy with my DArby SR. And it doesn't look like implo talked about either, so that'd be null in the scumteam's decision. IMO it would have made more sense for Toog to go to the Keep in a {Pav, Toog, ?} situation.

I don't know that it would make more sense for Toog to go over pav in this scenario. I think that scum!Toog always loses in a Me, Ari, Toog keep and that scum!Pav likely loses in a Implo, Pav, numberQ Wall.

My current theory is that there were 2 scum at the Wall, and they had to choose someone to go to the keep. And they just accepted defeat at the keep in order to bolster their chance to win the wall.

That applies to both a Toog+pav team and a numberQ+pav team

[Lukewarm]

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Imaginality, what was the purpose of this question?

I feel like the answer was fairly clear given Ari's stances - They should never want themselves to get vote power, that is anti win con, and then they said that they thought I was town.

I guess, my point more is, why are you asking Ari this instead of talking about who

You

think should have the vote power?

[Lukewarm]

oof. messed up the quote

[Lukewarm]

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Do you think Luke is bluffing about voting for me to convince you to vote for him?

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

Imaginality, what was the purpose of this question?

I feel like the answer was fairly clear given Ari's stances - They should never want themselves to get vote power, that is anti win con, and then they said that they thought I was town.

I guess, my point more is, why are you asking Ari this instead of talking about who

You

think should have the vote power?

[Lukewarm]

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

I don't think of the Keep that way.

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

oh. I guess my last point was wrong.

Ari, you probably should not be the voter. (See implos 178 when I suggested being the voter).

[Lukewarm]

If a townie in the keep decides that they are voting, that makes the keep a 50/50 based on that townies reads.

If we pick out the scummiest and make them vote, that is a 33% chance to win on the spot if we are right. and then that person gets to vote, getting a 50/50 to win if we are wrong.

-----

So a town read townie deciding they are the voter makes this game a 50% chance to win.

Making this game a two step solving process makes this game a 66% chance to win.

[Lukewarm]

Ari, you probably should not be the voter. (See implos 178 when I suggested being the voter).

Is this a mechanical argument or are you expressing a town-read?

Both.

I walked into the day with you as town, and Pav swapping in hasn't changed that.

You offering to vote is also a good look

[Lukewarm]

don't worry, you're not rushing my vote. i am... notorious for dragging out the yelo decisions until the last second, so.

If this is the case, we should probably set "Deadlines" to flip our first and second game, to make sure that we are not pushing the first flip out so far that the last game does not have time to course correct / read adjust from the other flips

[Lukewarm]

My assumption for The (edit: Wall) was that we were the unsorted and most likely to have 2 scum. I didn't like numberQ yesterday they kept making pushes as me scum early, and then again at day start today. I don't recall implosion's play yesterday, but I do recall them being mostly town read.

I'm currently leaning scum were already 1/1/1 in the games, and Darby was probably moved to The Keep for chaos purposes.

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

This is a good question for Toog. What makes you think that were 1-1-1 over 2-1-0?

[Lukewarm]

One sort of small thing that I've noticed: I, for one, absolutely forgot like half of my opinions overnight. I did not think about this game almost at all during the break and I kind of imagine scum would have been thinking about it more than town

I feel like this might also be a personality thing - I for one get mildly obsessive with my games, like lay in bed at night thinking about them. But, from what I have seen from Toog, I don't think that he is that way. So, your point about Toog seems good.

I feel like people keep making good points, or they make posts that ping me, and I keep flip flopping on numberQ/Toog and imaginality/Baltar. I need to nail down my reads on these 4 :/

[Lukewarm]

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

My original assumption was it was all town at your location. The fact that no one shifted from there LEDs me to the more likely scenario of 1/1/1

you thought all three of imaginality, baltar, and tanner were town?

[Lukewarm]

I just scanned Pav's iso, and he does not look like he is solving, like at all. So far he has had "I swapped, so Luke scum" and that was basically it. Nothing about anything Ari and I said day 1 or post swap on trying to sort the two of us. But also a weird call for me to vote him and a joke about voting Ari. It does not feel like he is playing to win this game.

And basically nothing on anyone in either other game.

Yeah getting swapped threw me. Ok.

Did you put much thought into your original game. You, numberq, toog at the wall

I was leaning Q there for scum.

This was literally the only read in his whole iso that was not me. And it was that Q is scum, after being asked directly, and it did not come with any reasonings what so ever.

Like, it feels like he has just decided to avoid giving associative all together. Possibly means that q is +town, because would someone who is avoiding giving associatives have their only read of the game be fos'ing their buddy?

----

And thinking about the swap dynamics for scum pav.

ScumPav + Scum Implo swap -- does not seem like an smart swap. Implo had a decent chance to win the keep. So I think that that scum team swaps Pav with the scum at the gate, since Tanner already thought that imaginality and Baltar were both scum. Gives Pav the greatest chance of not walking into a completely unwinnable game.

ScumPav , Town implo swap -- This makes some sense. scum toog or Q would have a hard time winning the Keep, and pav would have a hard time winning the wall. So that swap seems like it would be to sacrifice the keep to increase their odds at the wall. Which, I think means that the scum at the gate thinks they have a decent chance or winning the gate if they accepted straight tanking the keep.

[Lukewarm]

Tanner? You asked for my experience with Luke. To put a fine point on it, the case he's making here? This sounds like scum!Luke trying to make sure I don't get a foothold to keep it 1v1 with Ari.

I don't see why Scum!Luke would alienate you, if you become convinced he is scum, don't you just vote for me and then he loses?

It seems like a lot of effort for not much gain.

Disagree. If he's scum, he has to contend with the possibility that one of us will vote the other. If he can scumlock me, he doesn't have to worry about you voting me. It's one less way for him to lose here.

Pav, your thoughts on how this game play out feel fairly alien to my own.

The only way for any scum in the keep to win the keep is for a townie to vote for them. Do you really think it makes sense that my game plan right now is to actively scum case you and lock you into your scum read on me while at the same time telling Ari that she should not be the one to vote?

You keep saying every single thing that I do makes me scum, but I don't even see the scum path to victory that you are trying to argue that I am going for.

The more you are doing this, the more I am leaning towards you having started the day already with a game plan of calling me scummy, and you are just sticking to it...

Lets talk about the reasons you have called me scum / presented scum paths to victory:

458 - scum!Luke thinks "he can get me mislimmed" - Okay, if I think I can get you miseliminated, why not leave you in the wall, or send you to the gate, and get you miseliminated? Both of those paths win me a minigame if that is what you think I think about you.

462 - "Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me"- What part of this plan keeps ari from getting voted?

467 - "Luke is my top suspect just given the fact I got swapped." - But why?

611 - "the case he's making here" - yes, I scum read you over Ari. What makes you think that Town!Luke would not be scum reading your slot right now and/or town reading Ari's slot right now?

Like, I know for a fact that either you are scum or ari, and that which ever one of you is scum wins exclusively by voted, and the other is town and wins either by being voted or by voting correctly.

And Ari looks like she is actively considering who she would vote 405, 492, 535, 613

And you seem focused almost exclusively on getting voted 463, 464, 615, 625

Why would I not think that you are the scum between the two of you here?

[Lukewarm]

And don't discount the fact that he locked himself into this mini like, way early.

What about this makes me more likely to be scum then town? Have you looked at my explanation for that, or are you just latching onto it because Ari originally called me scum for it?

[Lukewarm]

This is an insight I hadn't considered that kind of gives +town points to Pav. Maybe the self-vote thing was obvious to everyone else and I'm just dumb, but I don't know if scum points this out and in turn makes everyone even more cautious.

This feels like a bad reason to try and town read Pav, but I think that that is actually +town for numberQ.

I don't think that scum are in a position to go out on a limb for pav, and are likely going to just let him sink or swim on his own.

+town for Q even if I am wrong in the keep I think, just because in a scum ari world, scum would be very happy with the status quo of Pav being the most scum read and him scum reading me, and not want to rock that boat either

[Lukewarm]

that baltar / pav interaction this page is weird, and i don't understand it

I did not really mean to only talk to/about pav in this sitting, but he was most of the posts since I was last on lol

[Lukewarm]

Oh you replaced Darby. Lol.

This is going to be easy mode

this is more the approach that i think that the scum team would be taking towards pav / compared to numberQ (again, even if I am wrong)

[Lukewarm]

Luke what would you say is your best completed scum game on the site so far? I do want to read it for a comparison.

Probably this one: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874

That is the only scum game I have won lol

[Lukewarm]

I feel like I'm sliding towards a Baltar - Pavo - Toogeloo solve and it feels too easy almost.

The feeling of complacency is hard to shake.

Have you talked about reasonings for Baltar and Toog before this?

I just made a +town for numberQ post and a +scum for Baltar post and have been pushing Pav, and not gonna lie, seeing you present that solve immediately after caused a pit in the stomach sensation.

[Lukewarm]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Can you explain this to me?

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

Wait I remembered this conversation about imaginality v baltar.

I can find anything on Toog. Why are you leaning toog>numberQ

[Lukewarm]

I feel like I'm sliding towards a Baltar - Pavo - Toogeloo solve and it feels too easy almost.

The feeling of complacency is hard to shake.

Have you talked about reasonings for Baltar and Toog before this?

I just made a +town for numberQ post and a +scum for Baltar post and have been pushing Pav, and not gonna lie, seeing you present that solve immediately after caused a pit in the stomach sensation.

do I really need to? the difference in their depth of thought is somewhat self evident no?

Okay, having time to look back a bit more, I think I have worked my way out of that moment of worry, and figured out why it did worry me in the first place lol

I started out thinking that Toog was the townie in the original wall trio, and my read on him vs numberq has been shifting through out the day. So you presenting that solve, with out any mention of Toog this day felt strange felt strange, because I did not see that read develop to be in your solve. But, we actually started from different places, and you had toog as scummy day 1.

[Lukewarm]

{snip}

I liked points 2 and 3 in imaginality's wall. Both of those are things that stood out to me as well.

4 is okay.

1, 3, 5, and 6 are kinda meh though.

I do want to see his associatives on Baltar though.

I think VP actually hoped he and I would be at Wall together so he could use my town-read on him to his benefit, but wasn't opposed to Gate when it came up since he reckoned Tanner's main D1 doubts about him were based on the theory he and I are partners, and he believed Tanner would see me as scummier individually than him once that was proven impossible.

This is probably the most interesting thing I saw though. Note to self to look back at Tanner's Day 1 read on Baltar

[Lukewarm]

Baltar - Can you tell me why you were against a you, imaginality, implosion mini game trio?

i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location.

That seems fine by me. I don't trust you to call an entire location, but if you want to test your theory in a 2/3, I don't think there is a lot of harm in that.

[Lukewarm]

Oh you replaced Darby. Lol.

This is going to be easy mode

this is more the approach that i think that the scum team would be taking towards pav / compared to numberQ (again, even if I am wrong)

Can you explain your thoughts here a little more?

I kinda did just before this when I commented on NumberQ.

But basically, if you are scum, then the scum team decided to send you here accepting that you were going to lose. So there is no reason for them to go out on a limb for you and hurt their own chances. They are playing to win their own minigames, not to help you. But coming at you with that bravado confidence that you are scum feels in line with a scum who has already accepted that you are losing the keep, and wants to look good on your flip.

If I am wrong, and Ari is the scum, then they should also be pushing you as scum, because you getting the vote and voting for ari is a solid win con for them. Calling you town (like numberQ did just before) increases the odds that Ari ends up being the one who has to vote, and as long as you are out here calling me your number one suspect, that is a risk with no reward.

The extra bravado here makes more sense in scenario one, then scenario two. So probably ++scum on a scum!Pav flip but probably does not mean a whole lot on a scum!ari flip - but numberQ's +town points looks about the same regardless

[Lukewarm]

I would think that the talk about leashing votes would be something scum would want to steer away from in most cases.

Why? There are definitely scenarios where this helps the scum team.

If Ari and I are both town, and he can get a scum partner in that last slot, us both agreeing to vote the partner, is a scum win.

If we are scum/town, then using this to force a second town into the keep helps them achieve the 1v1v1, and the new person swapping in is more likely to be the one who has to vote (see our current situation lol), and ups the scum win con in this game for a 33% to a 50% -- And from your pov, you should be thinking of it knowing that we are s/t, no?

[Lukewarm]

currently out on a walk, but i just had an idea. so note for myself and anyone else who wants - how did baltar go from "yeah ok me/implo/imag can go to the same location if you want" to "i don't trust you to call a location, but 2/3 is fine"?

I have only been asking him about this since it first happened lol (286, 451, 710)

[Lukewarm]

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

So you thought scum!tanner might be making a suggestion that was 1 scum, 2 town to help achieve a 1-1-1 split?

[Lukewarm]

I think it is kind of crazy people are even considering I'm scum since I drove D1 to arrange D2 partially around Tanner's scum reads

Can you expound on this?

[Lukewarm]

i'm not yet thinking about the order of the games, but for some reason i feel like i want to get the wall out of the way. the issue is that the wall overall feels the least... like, the people on the wall overall feel like they've given the least. which is annoying.

If I did not flip at the same time they did, I would want Ari and Pav to flip first. I think that it is the keep is the game that we are most likely to win, and would give us the most reads shake up if we are wrong.

But selfishly, I kind of like the idea of not going first, because I get flips to look at before my game resolves, and their flips can never help me lol

So, if I was anywhere other then the keep, I would want the keep to flip I think. Why are you leaning towards the wall first?

[Lukewarm]

Ari was actively trying to say I was scum for voting first, and he agreed with Ari (at the time only me and ari had voted in, so I doubt he thought ari was calling herself scum) - But immediately 180'ed to say that my vote was +town once he got push back on it. Which feels like one or both of those those thoughts were not genuine, and it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract. Do not like.

this is something that i should be probably asking imaginality, since he made the same point, but there may be more value in asking luke - where's the pushback baltar got for it? i went back to reread the section, and it didn't seem to me that anyone was like, especially pressuring baltar for saying it.

Less push back, like pressure, and more like someone came back and told him he was wrong, and he promptly 180'd his stance. Which felt like he just didnt want to argue the point with implo.

But if he genuinely believed the first post he made, I don't see why he hard 180'd on it the way that he did. So, the next logical jump for me was that maybe he was just trying to be agreeable with ari/find a way to shade me in his first post - but did not want to commit to backing it up when someone presented the exact opposite argument.

[Lukewarm]

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

So you thought scum!tanner might be making a suggestion that was 1 scum, 2 town to help achieve a 1-1-1 split?

I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard. More just like, if Tanner is scum, they have a reason for that suggestion, so let me make a suggested change to the plan and see how he reacts. I also meant what I said early in the game that I can actually read Tanner reasonably well, so I didn't see harm for myself in being in the same game with him.

But I am trying to figure out why Tanner suggesting you+imaginality+implo was bad, but you+imaginality+tanner was fine. Could that not have been tanner literally just swapping himself with his scum buddy, and achieving the same split?

Thinking back, I don't know that he was actually the one who suggested him being there, so maybe that is a moot point? And also, you have already said you were not thinking about it that hard... hmmmm

I wish you had better answers lol

[Lukewarm]

I want Pavo/Tooges/Vpb to try harder if they are town.

Your my scum read in the Keep. Does that help?

PEdit: I'm thinking numberQ at the moment with how heavily they keeps shading me.

I keep thinking about this post.

Why?

Because she is the one at the wall who has shaded you the most? lol

[Lukewarm]

I'm still sick, and all I want to do is sleep when I'm not working.

[Lukewarm]

Been thinking about this, and I have a couple thought pulling in different directions. Let me get back to my computer instead of trying to do this on my phone lol

[Lukewarm]

Okay, got my laptop.

So, I see what you are saying, but it is hard to accept just based on my own reads. Scum Ari would have to be the most suicidal scum player ever, offering to vote you, then offering to vote me, then saying they wanted the vote, and then urging you to tell her who to vote. That last one is probably the strongest reason to think that she is town because you can argue that all the others are just talk. But if you, at any point, tell her that she should vote, that is a hard one to walk back from, so urging you to do that is wild.

So, just being up front, I am approaching this idea looking for the counter argument. Devil's advocate if you will.

-----

So lets play the game of, if darby were scum, would the scum of baltar/imaginiality suggest darby come to the same location as them.

Keep is locked in me+Ari, both others are open.

So, the options are:
-suggest Darby goes to the keep
-suggest Darby goes to the same location as them
-suggest Darby goes to the opposite location as them.

I don't know that there was ever a good argument to send Darby to the keep at the time, so I kinda want to throw that option away.

Having Scum!Darby go to the same location as them forces a 2-1-0 split. Sending Scum!Darby to the opposite location also forces a 2-1-0 split, unless they think that they can get their other partner into the keep.

So, could Scum!Toog or Scum!numberQ get into the keep, and would they want to? I don't think that scum!numberQ could have gotten themselves into the keep. Scum!Toog probably could have. So, if scum were prioritizing a 1-1-1 split in this scenario, then maybe this points to scum!numberQ.

But I also don't see Toog or numberQ winning the keep. So even if they get one of them there, then I think they end up swappng them out for Darby anyways?

If on the other hand, scum had already accepted a 2-1-0 split, then I don't think they care where DArby goes at that point? He goes to the wall, they swap him with implo to decide the wall, if he goes to the gate, they swap him with implo and make implo the IC.

-----

So, I think that your point is valid, if the scum team was prioritizing a 1-1-1 split, but falls apart if they had accepted a 2-1-0 split.

It does however even further clear implo I think? If implo is scum, then I think that they must have achieved a 1-1-1 split. I don't think that they would have accidentally achieved that, and if they were aiming for that, then I don't think they would have been out making suggestions that would have taken it away.

So, my conclusion is that them both suggesting DArby could go to either place implies that they accepted a 2-1-0 split and that implo is town.

[Lukewarm]

The flip side being that if Ari is scum, I don't think that they would suggest scum!darby going to the same location as them because it would stop a 1-1-1 split - but this is a pointless thread, because ari can never be scum with darby at this point - Same applies to me obviously.

[Lukewarm]

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I?

the readslist was +town because readslists early often grab attention and scum doesn't want that - that's what you said. i assumed that meant you're townreading him.

from memory, what were your reads if he was middle of the pack?

I mean I definitely said that. I'm just saying it was not like I was simping for him in thread or something. That's why I said "potential" townbloc. I was not certain on him at all, but more in the null to potential town range. I still do think it's incredibly dumb for scum to post a reads list like that and it was the first thing I went back to now that I know he's scum.

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

[Lukewarm]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

I have not read that giant wall Luke posted, so I don't have any reactions yet. I'm trying to follow what yall are saying I reversed on, but I think I need to read the big post to understand what is even being referenced

The big post I opened up with is sectioned off by the player I was talking about. You can just read your section, and you will have all of the context for this discussion with Tanner

[Lukewarm]

It does however even further clear implo I think? If implo is scum, then I think that they must have achieved a 1-1-1 split. I don't think that they would have accidentally achieved that, and if they were aiming for that, then I don't think they would have been out making suggestions that would have taken it away.

can you dumb this down for me? x_x

I don't know how without making another massive wall post, and apparently those are not getting read x.x

But basically, I am discounting the Scum implo + scum darby + gate scum option. Because suggesting that you and Darby are interchangeable does not make sense in that option, because scum were so close to the 1-1-1 split, I think that they would be going for it.

So from my pov, scum implo only works with scum ari, and that also feels bad because that would be my top two town reads both being wrong, and both ended up in a 2-1-0 split when I think they could have avoided it.

[Lukewarm]

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

Just saying what I was honestly thinking at the time. I don't even know what scum motivation you think exists.

This is a post where I am considering you being town, so makes sense that you are not seeing a scum motivation here lol.

The way you are dancing around the "potential town block" not meaning you actually thought he was town at the time, feels weird. And my gut reaction to that was that your day 1 reads were manufactured. BUT I don't understand why scum!you would go down this path instead of just saying that you discovered that you were wrong the moment Tanner was made an IC

[Lukewarm]

Implo was talking about literal first movers and I was talking about early voters in general. The fact ari said that doesn't make her +town and it's silly you'd make that assumption.

I am not sure what you are saying here?

Spoiler: The posts I'm talking about

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum

due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Of course, now that we have talked about it, it feels like it all means nothing, so...

From my pov it just looks like you called me +scum in 120 and then turned around and called me +town in 138 for the exact same action, both times being agreeable with who ever made the original argument.

Are you saying that you were calling ari +scum in 120? if so, why lead it with "I agree with ari"

[Lukewarm]

Or were you talking completely in the abstract both times, despite there already being early voters?

[Lukewarm]

Then I guess that brings me back to

it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract

What is your read on me?

[Lukewarm]

It is the sequence of assignments

Did you have any enlightening thoughts looking at it?

[Lukewarm]

I proposed Toogeloo as the third in post 275 and then argued against DArby and for Tanner being the third in post 314. On the other hand VP initially proposed DArby as the third and only said 'maybe swap DArby for Tanner' so it's not like Tanner was his first pick for the third slot.

how is 314 arguing against darby being the third in you/vp?

There is an interesting distinction between the two.

Baltar was okay with having you or Darby with him at either location.

Imaginaliy seemed to want you at the gate and Darby at the wall, and didn't care which him and baltar were at.

[Lukewarm]

I don't know what it means, but it's interesting

[Lukewarm]

Might think on that for a bit

[Lukewarm]

Actually, in that scenario, I could have swapped myself with Pav. left implo to try and win the wall, and then I would have been in a pretty good spot win in a luke v numberq v toog Wall minigame

[Lukewarm]

I proposed Toogeloo as the third in post 275 and then argued against DArby and for Tanner being the third in post 314. On the other hand VP initially proposed DArby as the third and only said 'maybe swap DArby for Tanner' so it's not like Tanner was his first pick for the third slot.

how is 314 arguing against darby being the third in you/vp?

There is an interesting distinction between the two.

Baltar was okay with having you or Darby with him at either location.

Imaginaliy seemed to want you at the gate and Darby at the wall, and didn't care which him and baltar were at.

Thought on this, and I think it is +town for imaginality

Why would scum imaginality's opinion on who the third person in his minigame was change depending on if it was the wall vs the gate here - but I can totally see the town motivation behind not wanting the DArby slot made into the IC, but being okay with Tanner being made into the IC.

[Lukewarm]

So...

I have severe sinusitis and mild pneumonia. I have a couple medications to take for both.

I'm officially requesting replacement in all my commitments.

Aww, feel better man

[Lukewarm]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

What made you say this Ari?

I definitely don't agree with resolving the keep (lowest odds of winning) earlier when the other two games clearly have better odds of town winning.

What? At base

Keep is a 66% win
Gate is a 50% win
Wall is a 33% win

Did you mean to say that the wall should not go first? Or are you saying that you think we are gonna lose the keep?

[Lukewarm]

Ah. You said keep, not wall in that post. Which confused me

[Lukewarm]

So you think we should go keep -> gate -> wall

[Lukewarm]

The problem with this (and I know, you prefaced it with "if DArby scum") is that Darby/I are not scum, and scum locked in the keep early. Since I know this, I go back and look at:

I do want to think about the order people went in for a bit..


Luke[K] -> Ari[K] -> VPB[G] -> Tooge[W] -> NQ[W] -> Imag[G] -> Implo[K] -> Tanner[G] -> Pavo[W]

Scum!Ari grabbing slot #2 on the keep ensures scum doesn't lose immediately on d1, and if I accept Luke's argument about quick-snagging the first slot, this could make perfect sense.

First half, I do not feel the need to respond to because obviously you have to say that from your pov you are town regardless.

I mean I guess scum locking in to a game that has a townie makes sense - but have you seen her posts about being the voter in this minigame 405 and 491/492/493

Do you think that that is just her bluffing? Even telling Tanner that she wants him to tell her who to vote? Like, that would mean that she was counting on someone else (me I guess? maybe Tanner?) stepping in to tell her that she should not be the one to vote

[Lukewarm]

Do you think that she was town read enough at the time of making those posts that she felt safe counting on that?

[Lukewarm]

Luke what would you say is your best completed scum game on the site so far? I do want to read it for a comparison.

Probably this one: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874

That is the only scum game I have won lol

So I've skimmed this game and a few of your other games and I do feel you are closer to your town!meta than your scum!meta here;

However the example you gave me was imo a weaker performance than your scumplay in popcorn and I feel it's somewhat strange that Pavo didn't call you out for this.

I suspect it might have to do with himself playing much townier / more assertively in popcorn than this game and he felt perhaps it would not be a good example to bring up.

Well, I mean I won the game that I linked and I lost popcorn, so that leads me to think that I was stronger in that game? I generally think of the newbie game and the popcorn as my good scum games, and DSII and that bastard one as my bad scum games.

I am really proud of the newbie one because of the way that I knew I had been guilted I went all out on setting up false associatives that day phase before the jailkeeper realized that they had a guilty on me, and then from the ghost chat I watched people walk down the exact false associatives that I purposefully put out there. It felt really good and rewarding.

Popcorn was not fun. At all. But I kept trying anyways, but I lost anyways. So both the way that game felt and its conclusion make it a game that I don't go back to when I am thinking about my prior games, but I know I did pretty good. I even have a quote pulled in my sig from it - the hectic one.

My other scum games being Pooky's Dead Silence II - I think that I did pretty badly on that one over all. I think that the set up got to me, and I over corrected in trying to not look like I was playing to the scum win con. And the bastard game, that we probably my least favorite game on site, and I even repped out, because it was a hot mess. I did not do very good that game either, but also my alignment changed multiple times (scum -> town -> scum), so :shrug:

Spoiler:

for those keeping up that gives me a 1 win 3 loss scum history

-----

Also, from Pav's pov, he town read me in the newbie game, and scum read me in the popcorn game - so the newbie game might be the one he thinks is better too, just because that is the one that I tricked him personally in.

[Lukewarm]

Luke, can I ask why you're townreading Ari? Based off your posting, a lot of it seems to be related to Tanner interactions where you were assuming Tanner was scum. That wasn't true, obv. Are you still townreading Ari based on those old assumptions, or are there other reasons?

I don't think that any of my reasons for town reading ari were hinging on my read on tanner. When I sat down to do isos over the break, I did Ari and Implo first because they were in my game. Then I moved on to the Gate and read Tanner, and started scum reading him pretty hard, and then I agree that influenced my iso reads after that.

But a run down
Day 1:
- offering to vote tanner in the keep
- offering to vote me in the keep
- the way her vibe matched our prior game together (laid back alt gimick, but then breaking character to check into things that ping her. see )
- the way she started questioning tanner once I put out my own worry of tanner

Day 2:
- Asking Tanner to help her pick who to vote
- And like, the fact that she just showed that she has gone and read at least 2 different games that had both me and pav in it to try and sort the two of us. Seems like a lot of effort for scum who would already be in a decent position. She did not even use anything she found in the meta to change her reads. So she had reads. Read two whole games. Came back and said "yep, I like my reads from before"

[Lukewarm]

Doesn't matter maybe but wouldn't you consider it bonus points if you changed my mind?

Sure, happy to have you but I'm not certain certain you're town either so...

I do think imaginality's read on Darby looked fake af.

Do you think that imaginality having a fake looking scum read on Darby makes Darby scum or town. I was unclear the first time you mentioned it

[Lukewarm]

I linked my last game with Ari earlier. It had me + Ari + Tanner (on his main, Datisi), all three were town

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87284

That is what I have been comparing her to.

[Lukewarm]

Just a side note, and I am not trying to alt hunt you Ari, just recalibrating a bit.

Based on your comments about the original run of this game, I thought I knew who you were - like your response to my vote in. But the amount of meta reading you have done is not fitting with how I have seen that person play. I kinda feel extra bad about being snippy with you day 1 in 154, because if you are not that person, it simply does not apply to you.

[Lukewarm]

I could conceivably be convinced that Pavowski is a better vote but I don't know if anyone is really making that argument.

I see your post explaining why you think Ari is scum, but what makes you think that Pav is town? Or is that just the inverse of thinking Ari is the scum in the keep?

[Lukewarm]

I'm happy to vote for Luke if Tanner approves of it.

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

Does your thinking here work in the inverse(s)?

If we flip the keep first, and I flip town, does that make implo and vpb town from your pov?

Or, if we flip one of them first and implo or vpb flip scum, will that make you think that I am scum?

[Lukewarm]

Then when I say "hey I'll vote Lukewarm right now if Tanner says yes but I want assurances that he/vpb die if Lukewarm flips scum"

He fires back with an excuse about how scum want to bus and how he is willing to resolve first.

I just don't see why that would be his reaction if he actually believes that I'm mafia here or if he actually believes Lukewarm is town.

From my pov, this is a moot issue, obviously, but do you realize that from Town!Implo's pov you are asking if he is willing to bet the entire game on his read of me? Because that is what your bargain means.

"If implo's read on Luke is wrong (and scum win the keep), then I want it agreed that Implo is the vote in the Wall (which would give scum a second win from town implo's pov)"

I remember in the FGO game I played in [not sure if anyone is familiar with these games, but day 1 town votes for someone to be made into an IC, bulletproof, and given another PR, but if it hit scum the entire scum team got buffed] I was very vocal on who I thought was the person we should make "town leader," and someone else asked if I was willing to agree that if I was wrong, that I would promptly eliminated Day 2. And they thought it was weird that I refused that bargain. Like, why would I agree to make the town lose even more if I am wrong on my read, and town already started losing. Luckily, my suggestion on who to make town leader was correct, so that did not turn into an issue day 2.

Anyways, Implo's reaction to this feels about the same as my own reaction in that scenario.

[Lukewarm]

Then when I say "hey I'll vote Lukewarm right now if Tanner says yes but I want assurances that he/vpb die if Lukewarm flips scum"

He fires back with an excuse about how scum want to bus and how he is willing to resolve first.

I just don't see why that would be his reaction if he actually believes that I'm mafia here or if he actually believes Lukewarm is town.

From my pov, this is a moot issue, obviously, but do you realize that from Town!Implo's pov you are asking if he is willing to bet the entire game on his read of me? Because that is what your bargain means.

"If implo's read on Luke is wrong (and scum win the keep), then I want it agreed that Implo is the vote in the Wall (which would give scum a second win from town implo's pov)"

I remember in the FGO game I played in [not sure if anyone is familiar with these games, but day 1 town votes for someone to be made into an IC, bulletproof, and given another PR, but if it hit scum the entire scum team got buffed] I was very vocal on who I thought was the person we should make "town leader," and someone else asked if I was willing to agree that if I was wrong, that I would promptly eliminated Day 2. And they thought it was weird that I refused that bargain. Like, why would I agree to make the town lose even more if I am wrong on my read, and town already started losing. Luckily, my suggestion on who to make town leader was correct, so that did not turn into an issue day 2.

Anyways, Implo's reaction to this feels about the same as my own reaction in that scenario.

[Lukewarm]

Uh, Ari's and implo's 1v1 went on for a while. I am not sure that I really saw much convincing from either side to sway my read on the other, so my gut reaction is a TvT fight.

Implo seems to be scum reading ari for what looks like style clashes imo. And Ari openly says that she scum reads Toog more then implo.

[Lukewarm]

I do agree with Ari that asking Baltar questions is frustrating.

I was asking him questions and not getting responses, and when I do get responses they don't make a ton of sense to me, and when I asked follow up questions I was told that he just did not think about it that hard....

Which, is frustrating. If he is town, that certainly does not help me. If he is scum, that kinda shuts down the line of questioning.

I keep thinking I should meta read him to see if that is something I see in his other games, but also then talk myself out of doing meta reading

[Lukewarm]

Tanner, do you have any questions for me? I'll be around for the next little bit

[Lukewarm]

see Luke calling me his top townread in that other newbie game we were both in, where I don't think I played particularly well at all

That very well may have been because I was so incredibly tunneled on Val that game lmao

[Lukewarm]

can you link me examples of this happening, especially the latter?

and i'm thinking. who are you currently leaning on being scum on your location?

Yeah, let me find em

--

Pav

[Lukewarm]

can you link me examples of this happening, especially the latter?

I asked him about him agreeing to your baltar+imaginality+1 sort in 286. Brought it up again in 451 because it had not been answered. Asked again in 710 because it had not been answered. -- Finally got an answer in 714

I did not understand it, so I started following up with 717, he responded in 721 with "I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard..." -

There was more, not just that, but I still was not all that satisfied with his answer, but digging more felt pointless since "he wasnt thinking about it that hard"

----

He started calling him self obv town for following your reads day 1, and I asked him about it in 718 - Ari kinda picked up this torch, and I have just been watching to see if she can get answers from him. And every question she has asked him seems about what I would want to ask, and he has been really obtuse with his answers there. Second hand frustration on this one.

----

I had a question directed to him in 884, yet to get a response.

[Lukewarm]

do you remember what the idea was behind this post?

I actually don't? It doesn't seem to make sense since they are all xlos?

And, I was not the one asking this question, but...

[Lukewarm]

@Ari - here is the short of it: I incorporated the desires of a now confirmed town player as the fundamental building block of how I sorted. Additionally, Tanner has a tendency to scum read me in almost every game we play, at least for a little while. Yet, I added Tanner to my own game, knowing that would be the case. There is no legitimate reason I would do any of that as scum...and I'd actually call that poor play on my part if I was scum. It's so obvtown from my perspective, that I think it is incredibly annoying I'm having to repeat it again.

Baltar, even if you think that this is obvtown from your perspective (lol). It is not obvtown from mine.

Tanner suggested you+imaginality, and you didn't fight it.
Why would that be an obvtown move to make? It is now mechanically confirmed that that suggestion is one scum + one townie. Why would a scum player fight against it, and possibly end up in the same game as their buddy?

Tanner scum read you, but he also scum read imaginality harder imo. -- Why would a scum player fight against this arrangement?

Who do you think that scum!Baltar would want in the Gate with him and imaginality over Tanner? The other options would have been Darby, toog, numberq, and implosion. 1-2 of these names are mechanically proven to be scum. Other then implosion, all three of these are miselim bait if they are town.

Would scum!Baltar really want to place himself at the gate with him + imaginality + miselim bait, and be foreced to IC either imaginality or miselim bait over Tanner?

-----

Most of this all applies to imaginality as well, so this is not even a point for or against you. He was also amiable to the baltar+imaginality+tanner at the gate suggestion.

But, you keep repeating that this makes you obvtown, and I just don't see it.

[Lukewarm]

what do you think about baltar and imaginality's cases on who the other's partners are? and in general what they've posted against each other today?

It is hard to take either case against the other to seriously, because of the mech situation this game. They are either scum making a fake case or town who will see every single thing the other does as scummy because they are confirmed scum

Imaginality seems to fit the later a bit better imo, because he does seem to be calling baltar scum for every single thing that baltar does, even things that I look at and does not seem alignment indicative at all.

If I had to vote right this second in the Gate, I would probably vote Baltar? But I don't know how confident I am on the gate. Because you said that you did not want the gate to go first, I have kinda had it in my head that that is a game that gets to be properly solved after flips.

[Lukewarm]

he responded in 721 with "I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard..." -

There's significantly more to that response than "I didn't think that hard ".

And what I'm saying is that you're way overthinking in your proposed explanation.

My very next line was that there was more to that in your answer, but that part is what made me feel like it was pointless to continue the line of questioning even though I still was not satisfied with you answer

[Lukewarm]

i was hoping you'd focus more on the first part of the question. namely, 859 and 971.

I guess I am not sure if you are talking about their points on each other, or their assosiatives then?

Like I said, I take their cases against each other with a grain of salt.
859 case against imaginality feels forced, but again it has that feel of "is this bad because its forced, or because he is mech confirmed in his eyes"

Obviously he has to disagree on imaginality's take on the gate. He then says that the the analysis of the others is weak, even though imaginality lead in saying that he had not looked at the other games as closely yet.


971 does not have a VP case in it, it is an assosiative post - But I did really like imaginality's associative points in here. I found myself nodding along to all of it, and the final conclusion matched about my own reads. Ari town, pav scum in the keep. Implo town at the wall.

One thing that I did just noticed looking at them side by side is that Baltar's cases in the keep and the gate are not associative based. More "here is a case on this person individually"

[Lukewarm]

When you originally asked me, I was thinking more about imaginality's 691, not 971.

[Lukewarm]

I'm not even super interested in making a giant case about him because it's kind of pointless. This is why I'm saying people need to look at actual actions in the game and who is trying to effectively solve. Motive is the guiding light here.

You have both presented scum and town cases across games. Like I mentioned to tanner, I kinda planned on doing a hard sort of the two of you once the wall flipped. Or, if at any point we started leaning towards the keep flipping first sitting down to do an if x then y post based on how the keep flipped. (but he asked me for my thoughts right now)

Pre flips I am leaning you>imaginality but it is not a hard read. You are looking pretty unpartnered with Ari here, so my if x then y post would probably say that an ari scum flip = town baltar. Don't think that a Pav scum flip would sway my reads in the Gate tho

[Lukewarm]

if i really were to meme this game i'd say that in the keep, y'all should vote Pav, Actually

but the issue is, i do still feel some little bit of being not terribad at reading pav, and right now he's not posted enough Quality to make me think he's townie

I am gonna need a hell of a town case on Pav before this is considered lol

I think if you said that one of us should vote pav that, atm at least, I would hope to get my own vote in voting for Ari before she logged on and got a chance to vote Pav.

[Lukewarm]

That's the point?

[Lukewarm]

If Tanner tells me and Ari to vote for you, I am pretty sure that Ari will do it, so I feel like I would need to prempt that atm

[Lukewarm]

I feel surest about Ari being town and Luke has said he thinks Ari's town so if it's entirely my call I'd get Luke to vote Ari.
If we do the 'get the scummiest player to choose who to vote' thing I'd get Pav to choose between the other two.

If I get forced to vote, I'm polling the room and voting with the majority. I am not gonna be responsible for blowing the Keep when I'm really struggling with these two.

You can hold me to this.

And, I can see why you might think this would make you seem townie, but this does not ke me feel better about you here. Basically it feels like you are avoiding committing to a read on either one of us :/

[Lukewarm]

Anybody want anything from me?

Welcome to the game!

This is a weird entrance! Lol

[Lukewarm]

Pav is there a reason you ignored 1055, and instead just responded to/with a bunch of fluff ?

[Lukewarm]

RH9 - how much of the game have you read? My iso? Pavs iso? Looked at town or scum cases against either of us?

Or are you just trying to be contrary?

[Lukewarm]

RH9 - how much of the game have you read? My iso? Pavs iso? Looked at town or scum cases against either of us?

Or are you just trying to be contrary?

And what is your thoughts on numberQ / Implo.

I would have expected that to be your main focus coming into the game, since they are the ones sharing a minigame with you

[Lukewarm]

I don't like RH's entrance. And not just because he is calling me scum (for reasons I don't understand). But also, not how I would expect town to be approaching repping into this game.

[Lukewarm]

First post was awkward, then branching out to be contrary in a different game, and nothing on his own game

[Lukewarm]

Re:Tanner's case on Baltar

I am unsure why you becoming IC changes your read on him?

Looking at the case itself - I think that him having drop of the hat read changes is probably +town, and I agree that scum!baltar would probably angle more for a clear trajectory. But him just saying that he can do that is less persuasive, I think?

Since this has been on your mind, have you noticed him doing that this game? I might iso him for read progression now

[Lukewarm]

I find it strange that no one else responded to RH's posts, or to my posts to him. Definitely the most interesting thing that has happened in the last couple pages from my PoV, so seems weird to see it go ignored.

[Lukewarm]

which is also why i asked lukewarm what he thinks and he said he thought it was townie (what???)

It was more that I agreed with all of the points, and it ended up aligning with my own reads.

So it kind of felt like he was thinking about the game the same was that I was.

Or else, he was actively trying to build up to having the exact same reads as me? For some reason?

[Lukewarm]

Since this has been on your mind, have you noticed him doing that this game? I might iso him for read progression now

Currently doing this. Starting with his solve of imaginality+ari+toog

Spoiler: Ari trajectory

212 - ari and tanner are not t/t

217 - ari is performative

**note to self to ask about Ari wrt his sort in 268/270

399 - lim all liars wrt Ari

412- claims he did not call Ari mafia (which seems weird given all mentions of ari to this point)

859 - Ari is in his team solve

Summary, there was definitely some fence sitting in the middle, but no about face.

Spoiler: Toog trajectory

I found zero expressed thought on Toog Day 1

but in 524, he said he had gut town pings on toog day 1

Also in 524, he shifts to scum leaning because of imaginality's town case on toog

859 - Toog is in his solve.

summary, there is a turn here, but it is unexpressed before the turn, so :shrug:

Of note, if Balter flips scum, there is a clear difference in how he approached the scum read on Ari and the scum read on Toog. The approach to ari was definitly strong enough to affect her ability to win the keep. But his approach to toog isn't. Much more passive, even before the Toog rep out.

I don't ever see Baltar+Ari as partnered, but I can see Baltar+Toog. If he flips before either of the others

[Lukewarm]

**note to self to ask about Ari wrt his sort in 268/270

@Baltar, when you made your sort in 268, were you trying to do a 3 towniest / 3 scummiest / 3 nullest split ?

[Lukewarm]

i'm wondering if i should just do the thing where i ask everyone to fake vote between these two and then just go with the majority

surely nothing bad can happen right

I don't think that the gate goes first.

The fact that they have both put out solves for the other two games, and most people have weighed in on their 1v1, I think they are the game that benefits the most from having flips happen first.

Been going back and forth on solving the keep or the wall first tho

[Lukewarm]

I would like Keep first as well <3

Why keep > wall?

[Lukewarm]

I find it strange that no one else responded to RH's posts, or to my posts to him. Definitely the most interesting thing that has happened in the last couple pages from my PoV, so seems weird to see it go ignored.

i wanted to give the dude time to like, iso everyone and then present his thoughts. my first thought was "surely scum isn't this clueless when they enter the game" but i can't actually say that with any degree of certainty

I guess it depends on how much of the game he has read.

But like, if he has not read much, why is he coming out swinging this way? His take that my reads are too strong just does not make sense if he has not looked to see why I believe the things I believe.

But if he has read much, why didn't he justify his takes?

[Lukewarm]

I looked at this when tanner said something. There was definitely a post where you said that you were okay with you+baltar+DArby if you were at the wall, but wanted you+baltar+Tanner if you were at the gate

[Lukewarm]

I am giving myself whip lash, because I had started leaning towards wanting the keep to go before the wall to give the replacement time to get settled in / prove himself as town if town, but his entrance made me want to yeet him into the sun.

[Lukewarm]

I have them both at null for now. I will focus on them more in the future.

How do you feel about having both of your mini-game opponents at null, when you know that one of them must be scum?

[Lukewarm]

hmmmm.

Maybe I should chill, and let him read. But him looking at this game and deciding that calling me scummier then pav was his number one priority over solving his own game feels wild to me.

[Lukewarm]

you and tanner are having two different conversations.

Tanner is saying that you were okay with VP Baltar + you + tanner together and also okay with having VP Baltar + you + DArby together. Location did not matter.

You are saying that you never wanted VP Baltar + you + DArby at the Gate.

Both of those sentences are true

[Lukewarm]

The benefit of doing the gate first is that is where the most associatives will come from. Fingers crossed, Tanner votes out imaginality and town is then up a game with good associatives to win the keep.

What associatives from the Gate do you think will help us win the Keep after you are gone? You already have those associatives, what do they tell you?

[Lukewarm]

Would it not be just as effective to do it the other way around? Flip the Keep, and if she is red, then that wins the gate?

[Lukewarm]

My concern at the moment is that you might know that keep associatives look bad for you, and therefore want to go first.

So, I want to see if your thought processes about going first actually line up

(In case you were wondering about this line of questioning)