Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Aristeia]

I was hoping to go with Tanner somewhere to flirt with him and I am sad he does not want to go to the same place I want to go to.

[Aristeia]

Hello Baltar!

[Aristeia]

I guess if I am to play this game very seriously I would go to Gate to become IC or 1v1 someone to death.

If I am just roleplaying for funzies I would go to the Keep with Tanner and make him pocket me and feel happy.

choices choices choices

[Aristeia]

I think maybe I could go to Keep with you, it would be a fun date <3

[Aristeia]

Where would you like me to go?

[Aristeia]

gosh you can't tell I am town already?

[Aristeia]

it doesn't make much sense for scum!me to want to go to keep with town!you to flirt with you and then vote you the winner dear

[Aristeia]

sometimes you can be dense so I have to spell it out for you

but only because I love you

[Aristeia]

[Aristeia]

well since we are not doing the talking thing

VOTE: keep

come with me tanner <3

[Aristeia]

Ari, wanna talk about why you locked into the keep?

Like a page ago, you seemed okay with the keep or the gate

I think it is pretty clear why I want to go to Keep with Tanner <3

[Aristeia]

i was worried someone else would lock in keep and then we couldnt be there together

[Aristeia]

it is clear, but why are you so willing to do it?

because I want you to pocket me.

I have said this already.

You are such a silly guy.

[Aristeia]

will you just lock in keep already silly.

[Aristeia]

>.>

what if someone else comes into keep i will be sD

[Aristeia]

then they're scummy and probably never get voted for? iunno.

but I won't be with you

[Aristeia]

i fear that keeping the fortress save is above both of us.

wdym dear?

[Aristeia]

why would your read of me even matter if I am going to be voting for you?

[Aristeia]

well of course we will read everyone else b4 we leave

we can resolve our game first if you would like that?

[Aristeia]

i like implos strategy

also if we r throwing the three scummiest into the same spot, it doesnt actually matter which spot we throw them into.

[Aristeia]

actually it kind of does matter

i am wrong about that

but it is still nice to try

[Aristeia]

i like implos strategy

also if we r throwing the three scummiest into the same spot, it doesnt actually matter which spot we throw them into.

Do you think Luke is town?

nope

[Aristeia]

which is why i think your early lock in was quite scummy

[Aristeia]

I think from that game you learned that collectivism is better for the town and that scum have an incentive to just take what they want in order to not let town dictate assignments. So you deciding to unilaterally jump feels like a bit of a scumclaim to me

[Aristeia]

i like implos strategy

also if we r throwing the three scummiest into the same spot, it doesnt actually matter which spot we throw them into.

Do you think Luke is town?

nope

So then, your comment makes no sense.

I am not always right on everything and I doubt we can get all 3 into the same location regardless

[Aristeia]

i like implos strategy

also if we r throwing the three scummiest into the same spot, it doesnt actually matter which spot we throw them into.

Do you think Luke is town?

nope

Sad.

I am leaning town on Ari atm for the way she has interacted with the Tanner slot

Well

if you correctly townread me it doesnt actually matter if my read on you is wrong so... ~shrug~

[Aristeia]

Forgive me btw. I just assumed scum would be avoiding getting stacked together, so playing to try and lock 3 scum together seemed like a pointless endeavor to begin with, but people are pushing it anyways.

I dont think we will succeed but it is fun to try!

[Aristeia]

I think from that game you learned that collectivism is better for the town and that scum have an incentive to just take what they want in order to not let town dictate assignments. So you deciding to unilaterally jump feels like a bit of a scumclaim to me

No, what I learned was that if I stay uncommitted and talk with everyone over every single minigame, then the scum team and the people not willing to talk are going to all just lock themselves in before the rest of us actually come to a consensus, and I will get pushed out of the game that I want to be in and can just as easily lose anyways

I think if the meta for this game is that the first person who locks in a location unilaterally without consensus approval is lockscummed, it would be greatly positive for town win rates.

[Aristeia]

I think from that game you learned that collectivism is better for the town and that scum have an incentive to just take what they want in order to not let town dictate assignments. So you deciding to unilaterally jump feels like a bit of a scumclaim to me

...and we're not supposed to consider your unilateral jump a scumclaim because clearly, it's different?

Once the bottle is broken there is no putting the genie back.

[Aristeia]

you are adoorbs Tanner

[Aristeia]

*swoons*

[Aristeia]

shhh

[Aristeia]

town unilaterally locking in would give scum cover to unilaterally lock in

you can't support consensus assignments while unilaterally locking yourself in.

The way to effectively counter scum early lock in would be to policy the first locker if they do not wait for consensus.

[Aristeia]

If you feel that unilateral lock ins are bad, why did you unilaterally lock yourself in immediately upon seeing me? It looked liked you decided that you getting to buddy up with Tanner this game was more important to you then doing consensus assignments. Well, I decided not getting pushed out of the keep two games in a row was more important to me then doing consensus assignments.

consensus assignments are either done or they are not done

there is no middle ground

I believe it is optimal for town to do consensus assignments but if it is broken, there is no point.

[Aristeia]

I have more thoughts on your lock in that kinda annoy me (but I don't think are scummy, just annoyed) but would out your main if I brought it up, so I will avoid it.

ok

[Aristeia]

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

I am pretty bad probably

[Aristeia]

I probably shouldn't be reading so much into implosion's mech analysis but it's so confident and hawt :<

[Aristeia]

btw who are we liking for the 3 scummiest thrown into Gate?

I think rn my too early list is:

1. numberQ
4. imaginality
6. Toogeloo

[Aristeia]

What's your list so far?

[Aristeia]

btw who are we liking for the 3 scummiest thrown into Gate?

I think rn my too early list is:

1. numberQ
4. imaginality
6. Toogeloo

Do you have reasons for these, outside of post count? I have had no thoughts on either numberQ or imaginality, which is kind of a bad sign, but Toog I like Toog

just gut feels and I think it would be helpful if people put down their lists

[Aristeia]

what "questionable" comment, the one where i apparently shaded people for doing the exact same thing i am doing?

Yes.

why does it seem like you think i am so insanely confident in that solve? like. it was one (1) post that made me think that the three of you might be buddies. none of you have any preference between minigames, and nobody has any ideas on how to assign the rest of us. we can test my theory - if i'm right, town wins. if i'm wrong, nothing is lost. i don't have to be insanely confident in that being the correct solve to realize there is no harm in test it?

It's not about the confidence level. It just seems like a terrible solve. I know I'm town, so I know you're wrong there. Implosion looks fairly town in approach based upon the scum PT in the other game. So that's at least 2/3 that look like bad solves to me. What can I say, I have higher expectations from you.

if our remaining 6 is 3s/3t

putting 3 t in a location and putting 3 s in a location is functionally the same thing

[Aristeia]

I don't think its important to think about if tanners 3 is a legitimate solve or not.

things like getting all scum into 1 location are pretty unlikely

its more about taking a shot because what have you got to lose?

[Aristeia]

What's your actual read on Tanner?

He feels kind of townie to me

[Aristeia]

I might actually do something other than flirting with Tanner if he doesn't end up in Keep with me so I guess it is +town to want that.

[Aristeia]

on the other hand I will be disappointed and somewhat sad

[Aristeia]

Potted summary of what happened after page 4, for NumberQ's benefit:

Page 5: Ari and Tanner flirted in seven different languages
Page 6: everyone agreed I'm obvtown
Page 7: we all assigned ourselves to locations and asked the mod not to end the day yet just to trick you into thinking it's still up for discussion
Page 8: we ran an impromptu karaoke Song Contest, Lukewarm won with by singing Snow (Hey Oh) by Red Hot Chili Peppers which all agreed was the most impressive vocally albeit also the most confusing temperature-wise
Page 9: basically just cat memes (VP posted a dog meme but the rest of us politely didn't comment on his faux pas)
Page 13: we invented time travel but the future was boring because it was still D1
Page 10: everyone thought about it some more and still agreed I'm conftown, though the vote to build a monument in my honour was postponed til Day 2
Page 11: we felt it was unfair to keep posting in your absence so no one posted on that page, it's just 25 vote counts

I'm almost embarrassed to say I townread imaginality for this post ~.~

[Aristeia]

I have also seen Toog get scum read for lower content, but I think that is just how he plays, so I was hoping Ari would tell me if they had suspicion for anything more then that.

As we're in the keep, I don't think it would make sense for me to be overly transparent about my intentions.

Except that I do want to flirt with Tanner because he's so hawt.

[Aristeia]

Luke I think I got ditched

would you want to flirt with me so I can feel special and I'll vote for you?

yes I know I said I scumread you but it's cold tonight and I'm lonely.

[Aristeia]

I am really easy to pocket.

Just pick out some nice songs and we can talk about how pretty clouds look at 4:55 in the evening when the sky turns the prettiest shade of lavender.

[Aristeia]

I just want to be pocketed by someone with good taste in music :<

[Aristeia]

*giggles*

you're adorable lukewarm

thanks for picking out the music!

[Aristeia]

I think for the third person in Keep we should make it someone Ari and Luke agree to vote for in advance. If we can lock them in to that plan it pretty much forces scum to swap the third person if they're town. Hence my questions to them to see who they can both agree on as town.

this is so so so bad/scum-motivated if me/luke are both town

you are basically asking us, "who can i put into your mini-game to win it?"

[Aristeia]

my taste in music is garbage, is our whole relationship built on lies?

I think if you hold me in your arms, any music would be like angels singing.

[Aristeia]

i went hiking up a hill, and at 4:40 i took a picture of the lavender sky for aristeia, but there were no clouds there today.

ari, do you think i'm unfairly tunnelled on imaginality right now?

I'm sorry it's hard to think straight when I am so happy you took a hike up a hill for me <3

[Aristeia]

The reason I was keeping my reads close is because I suspect scum would either be trying to buddy a player they anticipate being with early, or paint that person as scum if they know they are playing with them.

I don't know the right way to play this game during setup, but I wanted to avoid being made a pawn by someone else.

At this point, I'm just checking the thread regularly to see if progress is being made towards teams. I'm getting kind of bored with the setup, and mostly just looking to play some elo. I didn't give much thought to how much wim people would have during setup lol.

this is kind of true

we really don't need to tell scum everything about our reads atp

[Aristeia]

maybe you are refusing because you would feel guilty about tricking me?

I think that would only make me love you more ~.~

[Aristeia]

what was your plan for the keep?

I am sorry I keep forgetting things >_<

[Aristeia]

so you never wanted to go with me :<

heartbreaking

[Aristeia]

also wouldnt you get switched out for another scumread and then we would be kinda screwed if we did your plan?

[Aristeia]

you are too smart for me ~.~

[Aristeia]

i just wanted to cuddle and eat strawberries and drink some hot cocoa

[Aristeia]

ok i would not jump into tanner's arms immediately I am not that easy ~.~

[Aristeia]

I don't see why you would go to gate if you think you can powertown yourself into being UTR :/

[Aristeia]

because dont the scum just make you IC and then we r down one UTR?

[Aristeia]

I don't get why you will obvtown at Keep but not Obvtown at gate if you r going to obvtown...?

[Aristeia]

is it bad that I am now getting paranoid that the reason you don't want to go to keep with me is because you don't want to lie to me and get me to vote for you because you would feel guilty?

[Aristeia]

like, this feels like a confusing mess of a question that's also dependent on me being able to obvtown anytime i want, which, uh, is not quite the case.

If you are locked into a 1v1 fight at the Keep you wouldn't be able to obvtown yourself?

[Aristeia]

I meant Gate

that's where you are trying to go right?

[Aristeia]

ok so if you go to gate and you don't become IC, you are in a 1v1, at that point won't you be able to obvtown and win ?

[Aristeia]

mm ok

[Aristeia]

is it a bad thought that I think maybe scum!you doesn't want to go to keep with town!me because you would feel guilty about lying to me?

[Aristeia]

I did not lie to you when I was scum ~.~

[Aristeia]

all of my ate that game was directed at Mastina

I would feel very bad about lying to you

[Aristeia]

I actually thought about what I would do if I were to roll red this game and I think I probably avoid you like the plague >.<

[Aristeia]

i wouldn't feel guilty about returning the favour. it's all part of the game after all.

rationally this is the correct way to approach things

but sometimes we feel things in our hearts that don't make sense ~.~

[Aristeia]

is it a bad thought that I think maybe scum!you doesn't want to go to keep with town!me because you would feel guilty about lying to me?

You legitimately thought this???

yes

[Aristeia]

you were trying to make me think that you were town when you were not, i think that counts as lying. >_>

pedit: hmm, interesting, considering you didn't have a problem interacting with me that game, as far as i remember.

It does not!

It's just leaving out some details selectively.

I never tried to twist your arm into losing for the town.

Also we barely interacted that game because you were never around, I was mostly just talking with Mastina/Norwee for most of the game.

[Aristeia]

i remember you posting some gifs at me that game, so i'm kinda registering it as interaction.

is it bad that i do not believe you when you say you wouldn't want to lie to me if you rolled red this game? not saying it makes you scum necessarily, but i don't buy it.

Well I would lie to you for the purpose of playing to my win condition but I would feel incredibly bad about it, so I would try to avoid doing it as much as possible, hence I would not want to be in the same mini-game as you.

[Aristeia]

I don't think posting gifs really counts as lying

if anything I remember they were mostly about being fond of you, which is not really a lie regardless of the alignment we are dealt.

[Aristeia]

is it a bad thought that I think maybe scum!you doesn't want to go to keep with town!me because you would feel guilty about lying to me?

You legitimately thought this???

yes

I think you're lying right now.

ok

[Aristeia]

i'm not saying posting gifs lying, i'm saying it's interacting. and i still don't really buy you would feel bad about lying to me in a context of a mafia game. it's a game. that's what we're here for.

I know I should not.

[Aristeia]

ok

[Aristeia]

I think this is the first time I've seen someone argue they're town because they would have felt too guilty to lie as scum. It's such a weird thing to say in a game that is almost entirely all about lying and sussing out who is or isn't lying.

That's not what I am saying...

I am saying Tanner might be mafia because he would feel bad about lying to me so he is avoiding me in the Keep.

[Aristeia]

I don't particularly care if anyone townreads me

I am in the keep

it is boring for me if someone just townreads me and votes me because that would require 0 thought on my part.

I actually prefer the thrill of getting to vote and feeling the thrill or agony of being right or wrong.

[Aristeia]

So... the same argument, but reversed and projected onto someone else?

It's not even a serious argument,

It's a paranoid fleeting thought I had.

I still think Tanner is town.

[Aristeia]

I don't understand why you made this post.

I am responding to you saying you think I'm mafia.

It is a pointless train of thought for you to pursue.

I don't particularly care if you townread me or scumread me atp

[Aristeia]

Like if I am going to be voting in Keep, it doesn't matter what everyone's opinion of my alignment is... because I will be the one voting in Keep.

So it's best to not express it.

However if you're town and you think I'm scum, then you letting the mafia know this will help them know to put me in the same spot as you so that you vote me out, for example wall or gate.

[Aristeia]

ok but what's the point of applying pressure to me?

[Aristeia]

ok sherlock holmes investigate away!

[Aristeia]

I am just happy Tanner is town <3

[Aristeia]

Pavo who do you think is mafia at the keep?

[Aristeia]

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Do you think Luke is bluffing about voting for me to convince you to vote for him?

[Aristeia]

Luke does seem very earnest and honest though

[Aristeia]

I think over focus on one minigame to the detriment of others might be minus town EV

I think every player should be trying to play and win their own minigame concurrently while also giving opinions on the other games.

I think we should have fairly strict deadlines for resolving each minigame to allow for time to use the flips/stances to solve other minigames.

I am unsure which minigame should be resolved first. I think maybe let Tanner decide on this? Whenever he feels the most certain about a certain game I believe.

I'll have more time this evening to put more thoughts down on paper.

[Aristeia]

Thinking about the swap and which scenarios make sense:

Implosion - Town, Pavowski Town.

Motive: Lukewarm thinks he can't out-town Implosion and decides to switch him out to lessen the competition.

Lukewarm also believes he can pocket Pavo and get him to vote for Lukewarm because of their history together.


Counterpoint:

Lukewarm feels so earnest in his solving post flip that he feels very much like town Lukewarm.

Is Lukewarm trying to convince one of us to vote for him by making it look like he is definitely wanting to vote for me? I am somewhat pocketed here despite my initial reservations on Luke. He just feels so warm and honest.

I don't think this world is impossible but I do feel it's somewhat unlikely.

Implosion Scum, Pavowski Town

Motive: Distort the game state and make Implosion look even townier than he already looks.

Counterpoint: It feels like overkill and I'm not certain Implo/Lukewarm come up with this play. I guess if the scum team is that well set up they don't actually

need

their swap for anything else and they can go for it? Does Lukewarm winning the keep do anything to help Implo at the Wall? Mmm I guess I can see it but we are kind of screwed if this is the actual play they make. I don't see how we ever get to implo scum on the wall.

I feel more worried about this than I should be.

Implosion Town, Pavowski Scum

Motive: Keep is lost for scum team already with three fairly vocal town players locked in and they decide to throw the recently replaced Pavo in there because his prospects are quite bad already. He's here for a good time not a long time.

Counterpoint: Why flip out Implosion out of the three of us if keep is TTT? Implosion is arguably the most townread out of the keep players pre-d2 so does it really make sense to flip him out of the keep? Is the hope that Ari/Luke refuse to trust each other? But Luke has already said multiple times he trusts me so what's even the objective here? Why would scum not just walk into keep regularly if Luke/Ari is T/T instead of wasting the switch?

I have issues with this worldview, I'm not sure if I'm being overly paranoid but I struggle to see which scum team decides this is a good move.

Implosion Scum, Pavowski Scum

Motive: I honestly can't come up with a motive for this one, why would a scum team put a stronger scum player in keep and then flip him out for a weaker scum player? Are they worried Pavo will be limbait on the wall so they decided to flip implo in there to salvage Wall while Pavo gets sacrificed on the Keep ? What's even the point of this move?


I guess the simplest explanation for what went on is that Luke/Me is T/T and nobody on scum team wanted to come to keep with us with 1 scum player inactive.

Pavo then switched in because he was a replacement and decided to take the fall for his team at that point.

However this is a bit arrogant and I am wary of making the same mistake the town made on the first run of this game.

Luke is hitting all the right tonal/thought markers to make me townread and trust him and I'm somewhat worried I'm overly hasty in my judgement.

[Aristeia]

gosh it would really be quite cheeky of Luke to steal Tanner's spot in the keep and then pocket me and get me to vote for him.

mmmmhmm

[Aristeia]

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

[Aristeia]

Tanner you will keep me safe right?

I am quite bad at making decisions about strange men

[Aristeia]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

[Aristeia]

is this dumb tell too stupid to be a real dumb tell

[Aristeia]

then again it is vp baltar

[Aristeia]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Would flipping imaginality provide an inverse associative...if so, doesn't it make significantly more sense to flip the gate first since that's a 50/50?

hmm

well imaginality is already flipped fypov so why don't you tell me what that tells you about the layout of the rest of the game?

[Aristeia]

Tanner although we are worlds apart may I still flirt with you? the two lads in the keep seem more interested in each other :/

[Aristeia]

well imaginality is already flipped fypov so why don't you tell me what that tells you about the layout of the rest of the game?

I will but like I said, I can't really read the game until late tomorrow.

Who do you think is scum at the gate?

I have some thoughts but I'd like to hear yours first

[Aristeia]

Tanner although we are worlds apart may I still flirt with you? the two lads in the keep seem more interested in each other :/

This is two times tonight you've made me laugh, and that might be worth a vote

Gosh both you and Luke are such teases.

I think you both are trying to make the other one jealous because you're both clearly not here for me.

[Aristeia]

the two lads in the keep seem more interested in each other :/

it is almost 2am and i like, actually laughed out loud oops

of course you may, i was afraid you'd never ask. i do have to crash now, but we can talk tomorrow, i'm looking forward to it. :>

sweet dreams then, see you tommorrow

Spoiler: For Tanner only

[Aristeia]

Well I wouldn't expect you to say anything other than "the other person is mafia"

I am trying to pick your brain to see what information that gives you about the rest of the game and why it might be so.

[Aristeia]

NumberQ can you rewrite your thoughts for me please? I am having issues understanding your wall.

[Aristeia]

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

I don't think of the Keep that way.

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

[Aristeia]

Imaginality how prepared would you say you were for this 1v1?

[Aristeia]

thank you for the music last night ari, it was lovely, and i did sleep really well.

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

could you tell me the difference between these two?

I'd like your help but if I get to the point where I'm 100% sure I wouldn't wait for it.

It's fairly rare that I ever get to 100% on anything.(except for thinking you're town <3)

[Aristeia]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Can you explain this to me?

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

[Aristeia]

i usually feel like i wanna evade being ic any way i can

tanner you dumb fuck lol

I mean I did tell you not to go there and get IC'd but you ignored me

:shrug:

[Aristeia]

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

how does the fact that luke self-assigned at the keep immediately play into this?

I would imagine the scum team decided to split up assignments pregame.

I don't think imaginality volunteers for Gate unless there's no stronger options to throw at it, his scum game isn't as confrontational or 1v1'y as Baltar's.

[Aristeia]

Ari, you probably should not be the voter. (See implos 178 when I suggested being the voter).

Is this a mechanical argument or are you expressing a town-read?

[Aristeia]

ari, if you were scum, would you tell your buddies to make me the ic?

Of course dear.

There's nobody townier than you in my eyes <3

[Aristeia]

but I also wouldn't go to keep and ask you to come with me.

I think if I'm scum I probably just go to gate for the 1v1.

I'm much better/more comfortable at 1v1ing than "looking town"

[Aristeia]

Both.

I walked into the day with you as town, and Pav swapping in hasn't changed that.

You offering to vote is also a good look

I feel somewhat guilty I can't get there with you currently but if you're mafia you're doing a masterful job <3

[Aristeia]

That's so cheeky if you're mafia >.>

[Aristeia]

Implosion,

if the game is at 1-1-1 preswap,

why do you think you get flipped to wall instead of gate?

[Aristeia]

Probably it comes down to, in some form, VP/imaginality whichever is scum thinking they could win this 1v1.

This is more or less what I thought.

Between the two of them, which do you think is more likely to believe they will win?

[Aristeia]

Tanner? You asked for my experience with Luke. To put a fine point on it, the case he's making here? This sounds like scum!Luke trying to make sure I don't get a foothold to keep it 1v1 with Ari.

I don't see why Scum!Luke would alienate you, if you become convinced he is scum, don't you just vote for me and then he loses?

It seems like a lot of effort for not much gain.

[Aristeia]

@ari, same question. If you had to vote right now, would it be me or Luke?

If I had to vote now I would pick Luke over you.

[Aristeia]

I don't think it's very realistic for him to be worried about me voting for you when you haven't done anything?


However if he pushes you too hard and makes you think he is mafia, he does have to worry about you voting for me.

[Aristeia]

Fair. What do you need to hear from me to give me a chance at winning you over?

I mean if you're locking Luke in scum trying to shade you I don't see why it would be me voting you, wouldn't it make more sense for you to vote for me?

[Aristeia]

I love the chiseled chin look

[Aristeia]

it's hard not to be distracted by you

[Aristeia]

ari, you consistently manage to genuinely put a smile on my face, i'm gonna be heartbroken if you're scum here.

This makes me happy even if we lose here <3

I am town with you so in the end we shall be together no matter what.

[Aristeia]

Fair. What do you need to hear from me to give me a chance at winning you over?

I mean if you're locking Luke in scum trying to shade you I don't see why it would be me voting you, wouldn't it make more sense for you to vote for me?

See there you go again trying to get me to rush to judgment, this is what keeps me thinking you could be scum here!

I've not locked him in as scum, I'm just leaning that way. Like, heavily, right now, but still. And don't discount the fact that he locked himself into this mini like, way early.

*twirls hair*

[Aristeia]

I know one of you and Luke are mafia.

I know both of you have embraced the strategy of shading each other while saying you tr me in order to make each other jealous.

I think it's a pretty good strategy given how much you both are familiar with each other.

At this point the dance between the two of you is like a game of chicken.

Two steps forward one step back.

I'm thinking the best ending would be if the scum between the two of you votes for me, and this causes the town player to panic vote the scum.

That would be quite a thrilling conclusion.

[Aristeia]

Did I say I TR you?

Your scenario at the end there is pretty unlikely, though it would be dramatic. The moment any person in our game votes somebody else, the voted party should immediately self-hammer. To do otherwise would be against wincon regardless of alignment

You said you heavily SR'd Luke which is basically the same thing.

I don't think it's that unlikely.

I wouldn't self-hammer immediately just to get my own thoughts out. I would post to show I'm online and capable of self-hammering to remove any doubts that could linger about being scum and then post everything I'd want to post about the other games first.

The gambit works best if the person being voted is not online as it puts extreme time pressure on the other side.

[Aristeia]

Why do you feel upset by this?

[Aristeia]

Oh you replaced Darby. Lol.

This is going to be easy mode

Can you explain this comment please?

[Aristeia]

I feel like I'm sliding towards a Baltar - Pavo - Toogeloo solve and it feels too easy almost.

The feeling of complacency is hard to shake.

[Aristeia]

Luke what would you say is your best completed scum game on the site so far? I do want to read it for a comparison.

[Aristeia]

I feel like I'm sliding towards a Baltar - Pavo - Toogeloo solve and it feels too easy almost.

The feeling of complacency is hard to shake.

Have you talked about reasonings for Baltar and Toog before this?

I just made a +town for numberQ post and a +scum for Baltar post and have been pushing Pav, and not gonna lie, seeing you present that solve immediately after caused a pit in the stomach sensation.

do I really need to? the difference in their depth of thought is somewhat self evident no?

[Aristeia]

I'm not really presenting a solve because I want to lock it in

I want Pavo/Tooges/Vpb to try harder if they are town.

[Aristeia]

tooges who do you think is mafia at the wall?

[Aristeia]

I don't really care what your read on me is.

What's your case for NQ-scum?

[Aristeia]

ok

[Aristeia]

I don't get it :<

[Aristeia]

You're saying because Imag/VPB both wanted Darby in [location] with them, that means Darby should be the same alignment as you?

[Aristeia]

As in scum don't want to stack 2 scum in a spot, so if 2 people [1scum] want a player in a spot with them, that player is by default a town player?

[Aristeia]

You're saying because Imag/VPB both wanted Darby in [location] with them, that means Darby should be the same alignment as you?

As in scum don't want to stack 2 scum in a spot, so if 2 people [1scum] want a player in a spot with them, that player is by default a town player?

yes, basically. imag/vpb both wanted to be in the same location, and wanted either me or darby with them. if we're going under the assumption that scum doesn't want to stack multiple scum in the same spot...

I see the logic but I'm not comfortable betting the game on it currently :<

Luke just feels so much townier than Pavo

[Aristeia]

Have you figured out my alignment yet Tanner?

[Aristeia]

will you be mad at me if i say no?

I could never get mad at you <3

[Aristeia]

Guardian Assignment Tracker 1.7 [FINAL]

Location	Guardians
Gate (3)	VP Baltar (418), imaginality (424), Tanner (429)
Keep (3)	Lukewarm (28), Aristeia (36), implosion (428)
Wall (3)	Toogeloo (422), numberQ (423), DArby (Autoassigned with 429)
Unassigned (0)

0 Guardians remain unassigned. Day 1 is over.

No win condition has been achieved.

I do want to think about the order people went in for a bit..


Luke[K] -> Ari[K] -> VPB[G] -> Tooge[W] -> NQ[W] -> Imag[G] -> Implo[K] -> Tanner[G] -> Pavo[W]

[Aristeia]

It is the sequence of assignments

[Aristeia]

VPB are you going to respond to Imag's case on you?

[Aristeia]

Not really

it fits the worldview that I have and it also fits other worlds where I am wrong

[Aristeia]

Not really

it fits the worldview that I have and it also fits other worlds where I am wrong

Can I ask why you answered Luke but not me when I asked you about that post? Unless I missed it.

?

I answered you right after you asked me.

[Aristeia]

Tanner wanted me and imaginality in the same game based on his scum reads, so that was the first building block I put in place when I suggested the sort.

I don't understand this tbh

[Aristeia]

I don't understand your thought process

[Aristeia]

I'm not very bright so I would appreciate it if you could write out step by step how you made the decision.

[Aristeia]

If Tanner is town, then I want to follow his instincts because they are much better than my own in early game.

How did you decide that town!Tanner's instincts are much better than your own instincts in early game?

[Aristeia]

it's actually really annoying how many times during this day i wanted to say "so what is your read on me then?" to remember i'm the ic

life is pain

you can still ask me!

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: Super Sekrit Tanner Read

[Aristeia]

btw I think you should make up your mind about when you want the first minigame to be resolved because we're ~9 days from deadline and you want time to analyze the flips, I'd say minimum 3 days for 1st flips and 3 days for 2nd flips and there's also New Year's.

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: super sekrit tanner read

you always make me so happy. wish you could be in the keep with me <3

[Aristeia]

Haha, well the game we just finished had Datisi going after scum Ico and me getting chained to them so much D1 that it cost town the game. Plus Datisi gets killed as town on N1 in many games I'm in. I think that speaks for itself

How does Datisi being able to read Ico very well translate to the rest of the players in this game?

[Aristeia]

yea actually if anything it's kind of worse no?

wouldn't you rather 1v1 with someone that Tanner scumreads rather than someone that Tanner townreads? ~.~

Or do you just mean you wouldn't go anywhere near tanner if you were mafia?

[Aristeia]

what do you want to do on the wall?

[Aristeia]

I'm curious what Tanner thinks because I feel like I'm sort of starting to tunnel mentally on a gamestate where the scumteam is Toog/imaginality/??. Obviously I'm not locking into that or anything and I want to hear more from Toog. I'm mostly just trying to catch myself before committing more strongly to opinions than they have merit.

I think this is where he's currently at with a preference for Luke being voted at Keep.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Aristeia]

His reason for VPB was the "dumbtell"

His reason for Luke is because Luke is playing a fantastic game.

He made some vague snipey comments at Toogeloo about shading NQ.

[Aristeia]

Actually think it might make sense to resolve Wall first; I don't think implo is expecting to distance or cares about distancing if he's scum here.

[Aristeia]

I hope you feel better soon Tooges ~!

[Aristeia]

Scum!Ari grabbing slot #2 on the keep ensures scum doesn't lose immediately on d1, and if I accept Luke's argument about quick-snagging the first slot, this could make perfect sense.

mhmm

Do you think Luke is out of his scum~range?

[Aristeia]

Why does scum!Luke bring you into the Keep?

[Aristeia]

ok but Luke's already fairly strongly townread and I don't think he'd have problems winning keep against someone else either?

Why not just leave you to be easy pickings at the Wall instead?

If anything you are more familiar with Luke's play than anyone else here and you are less likely to be fooled by him into voting for him....

[Aristeia]

Ok but even if Implosion is scum, why would Luke switch Implosion out for you instead of Tooges or NumberQ?

Don't you think it's much easier for Luke to convince either Tooges/NumberQ to vote for Luke rather than you just from how much familiarity you two have with each other?

As a bonus it would leave your own limbaity slot in Wall where you are more likely to be mis-limmed...

[Aristeia]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

What made you say this Ari?

I definitely don't agree with resolving the keep (lowest odds of winning) earlier when the other two games clearly have better odds of town winning.

the keep has the highest odds of winning.

I said it because I don't think a scum team with Implo/Lukewarm sends Imag to 1v1 at the Gate.

[Aristeia]

Have we played together before?

no but I do extensive meta research on everyone I play with

[Aristeia]

I was literally still VLA at this point and was keeping the thread informed of my VLA status.


What did you think I should have been doing at that point?

I'm talking about in the future.

[Aristeia]

Luke what would you say is your best completed scum game on the site so far? I do want to read it for a comparison.

Probably this one: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874

That is the only scum game I have won lol

So I've skimmed this game and a few of your other games and I do feel you are closer to your town!meta than your scum!meta here;

However the example you gave me was imo a weaker performance than your scumplay in popcorn and I feel it's somewhat strange that Pavo didn't call you out for this.

I suspect it might have to do with himself playing much townier / more assertively in popcorn than this game and he felt perhaps it would not be a good example to bring up.

[Aristeia]

Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game

can you explain this a bit more? why should tanner be able to correctly figure out that you are town?

[Aristeia]

Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game

can you explain this a bit more? why should tanner be able to correctly figure out that you are town?

Tanner has played with town me a shit ton. I'm not that hard to read.

Here is my town meta: Am I doing things with pro-town motivation? If yes, I am town.

What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?

[Aristeia]

Pavo, what are you doing to try to sort me?

[Aristeia]

What have you done this game with a pro-town motivation?

I organized a badass sort. Doesn't get more obvtown than that.

Can you explain this in more detail please?

[Aristeia]

Doesn't matter maybe but wouldn't you consider it bonus points if you changed my mind?

Sure, happy to have you but I'm not certain certain you're town either so...

I do think imaginality's read on Darby looked fake af.

from your pov all of imag's reads r fake

[Aristeia]

I haven't been so much, I've been trying to figure out Luke. If I can sort him, I can sort you.

I also haven't been sure how to approach you because your playstyle is ... weird

I see.

Well feel free to ask me anything that you think would help

[Aristeia]

Luke what would you say is your best completed scum game on the site so far? I do want to read it for a comparison.

Probably this one: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86874

That is the only scum game I have won lol

So I've skimmed this game and a few of your other games and I do feel you are closer to your town!meta than your scum!meta here;

However the example you gave me was imo a weaker performance than your scumplay in popcorn and I feel it's somewhat strange that Pavo didn't call you out for this.

I suspect it might have to do with himself playing much townier / more assertively in popcorn than this game and he felt perhaps it would not be a good example to bring up.

Well, I mean I won the game that I linked and I lost popcorn, so that leads me to think that I was stronger in that game? I generally think of the newbie game and the popcorn as my good scum games, and DSII and that bastard one as my bad scum games.

I am really proud of the newbie one because of the way that I knew I had been guilted I went all out on setting up false associatives that day phase before the jailkeeper realized that they had a guilty on me, and then from the ghost chat I watched people walk down the exact false associatives that I purposefully put out there. It felt really good and rewarding.

Popcorn was not fun. At all. But I kept trying anyways, but I lost anyways. So both the way that game felt and its conclusion make it a game that I don't go back to when I am thinking about my prior games, but I know I did pretty good. I even have a quote pulled in my sig from it - the hectic one.

My other scum games being Pooky's Dead Silence II - I think that I did pretty badly on that one over all. I think that the set up got to me, and I over corrected in trying to not look like I was playing to the scum win con. And the bastard game, that we probably my least favorite game on site, and I even repped out, because it was a hot mess. I did not do very good that game either, but also my alignment changed multiple times (scum -> town -> scum), so :shrug:

Spoiler:

for those keeping up that gives me a 1 win 3 loss scum history

-----

Also, from Pav's pov, he town read me in the newbie game, and scum read me in the popcorn game - so the newbie game might be the one he thinks is better too, just because that is the one that I tricked him personally in.

That's fair

I just meant your posting style in the newbie is much further from your town meta posting style than your posting style in the Popcorn game so it's a more accurate representation of how closely you can replicate your townstyle.

Whereas the newbie game your goal was not to blend in but to set the town up to fail post flip.

[Aristeia]

I think NQ is out of scumrange and I'm leaning tooges over implo but I'm worried it might be because I almost never townread tooge correctly plus he was sick so I'd like to give the replacement a clean slate.

[Aristeia]

I haven't done quite as much meta homework on NQ as Luke but I just feel his posting feels very pure and not performative.

[Aristeia]

tbf I didnt actually read two complete games

I just skimmed your iso from a few games for tone, content, length and timing.

[Aristeia]

I also haven't been sure how to approach you because your playstyle is ... weird

I am curious about this though.

What do you mean when you say weird?

[Aristeia]

I think NQ is out of scumrange and I'm leaning tooges over implo but I'm worried it might be because I almost never townread tooge correctly plus he was sick so I'd like to give the replacement a clean slate.

My one game with Q was a town!Q game so I don't have that frame of reference. Interesting.

Hate it for Toog... I was pleased I was able to townread him correctly in that same Popcorn game with me and Luke. (Course it took until the end.) I was curious if I'd read him rightly again here.

Anyway.

I was comparing to his iso from Squid Game.

[Aristeia]

I think the simplest way would be for you to disregard the "fluff" and focus on the substance?

[Aristeia]

because I like flirting with Tanner? It's not exactly a mystery.

[Aristeia]

I guess you could try to read me on the fluff but if you don't feel comfortable with reading for emotion I think it's fairly simple to just ignore it and read me for content and interaction.

[Aristeia]

I guess you could try to read me on the fluff but if you don't feel comfortable with reading for emotion I think it's fairly simple to just ignore it and read me for content and interaction.

That's the thing, I think I'm ... kinda not bad with reading for emotion? But it'd be useful to have a baseline. Anyway, we were talking about why you were weird, and there you have it, one dummy's opinion

ok but if you feel uncomfortable reading me for emotional tells you can always just interact with me on the content level instead.

[Aristeia]

Just a side note, and I am not trying to alt hunt you Ari, just recalibrating a bit.

Based on your comments about the original run of this game, I thought I knew who you were - like your response to my vote in. But the amount of meta reading you have done is not fitting with how I have seen that person play. I kinda feel extra bad about being snippy with you day 1 in 154, because if you are not that person, it simply does not apply to you.

I don't mind if you are snippy with me, it's fine Luke.

[Aristeia]

I feel VP is generally spouting sensible analysis. As discussed earlier that doesn't automatically make him town because scum at the gate have every incentive to give sensible analysis. But I do also think he's town independently of how much I agree with his analysis, I think.

What's the biggest reason you think VPB is town?

[Aristeia]

I'm happy to vote for Luke if Tanner approves of it.

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

[Aristeia]

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

Why? Do you disagree with my argument that scum have every reason to bus in this setup?

You don't need to worry about this if Luke is town.

[Aristeia]

so we are agreed?

[Aristeia]

Ari, what precisely are your current reads in each area and how confident they each are?

I'm around:

Town:

NQ, Luke
Imaginality
Implosion
Toogeloo, VPB, Pavo

Scum

[Aristeia]

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

Why? Do you disagree with my argument that scum have every reason to bus in this setup?

Bussing vs not bussing is simply a wifom argument

[Aristeia]

I feel like Aristeia's posting as a whole is some amount of fluff but like, a huge bulk of asking people leading questions rather than giving real original analysis or like, actual trying to figure out who is mafia.

Which question are you talking about?

[Aristeia]

NQ's depth of thought and posting feel much more pure/townie than when he was scum. I'm not picking up any of the performative stuff he did during Squid Game.

Implosion hasn't really impressed outside of the early mech analysis, I still have him rated as higher than Toogeloo which really is the only thing that matters regarding the Wall.

He feels like he's been just "fine" in terms of pushing the status quo which is somewhat concerning if the status quo is wrong, which is why I'd like to kill him if Lukewarm flips scum.

His initial reaction to me didn't feel right.

[Aristeia]

It's kind of weird for him to say that he thinks I'm scum who is performatively trying to pocket Lukewarm and never will vote Lukewarm.

Then when I say "hey I'll vote Lukewarm right now if Tanner says yes but I want assurances that he/vpb die if Lukewarm flips scum"

He fires back with an excuse about how scum want to bus and how he is willing to resolve first.

I just don't see why that would be his reaction if he actually believes that I'm mafia here or if he actually believes Lukewarm is town.