Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]
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- Pavowski
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I shouldn't speak for DArby too much, but I was in another game with him which was in its final stages when I was contacted to rep into the slot. That's all I can say about it though.In post 452, Lukewarm wrote:
That being said, I'm not worried, my towniness always shines thru, except when it doesn't
So either scum!Luke pulled me over here thinking he can get me mislimmed (entirely likely and my leading theory) or scum!Aristeia figures scummy reads on Darby will be enough to sway Luke.- Pavowski
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Yes but that was a few days ago and y'know, Christmas overeating coma, so I am more or less starting fresh hereIn post 456, Lukewarm wrote:Did you read the game over the night phase pav?- Pavowski
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Yeah getting swapped threw me. Ok.In post 460, Lukewarm wrote:Was getting ready to ask if you understood the keep mechanics lol
We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.
Unless he votes me here.
That's an open invitation, Luke- Pavowski
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Is this, like, an agreed-upon strat or is it a gentleman's agreement? I'll honor this if it's how the group wants to play itIn post 466, Lukewarm wrote:
This is how we are playing the keepIn post 78, Lukewarm wrote:I believe that the best strat for the Keep is to collectively, meaning everyone not just the people in the keep, to chose who we think is most likely to be scum, and then give that player the choice of who they are going to vote between the other two.
So, this mini games will play out one of a few ways:
The scum is given vote power, and we always win.
I am given vote power, and I am trying to read the other two (functionally the same as being the IC in the gate)
The other townie in the keep is given vote power, and I have to town it up. I am at least somewhat confident in my ability to do that.- Pavowski
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Top suspect doesn't mean I'm convinced yet. Luke could bluff about just about anything.In post 468, Aristeia wrote:
?In post 463, Pavowski wrote:We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.
If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?
Do you think Luke is bluffing about voting for me to convince you to vote for him?- Pavowski
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I was leaning Q there for scum.In post 474, Lukewarm wrote:
Did you put much thought into your original game. You, numberq, toog at the wallIn post 463, Pavowski wrote:Yeah getting swapped threw me. Ok.
Luke always sounds that way. It's his curse.Aristeia wrote:Luke does seem very earnest and honest though- Pavowski
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I have no problem with playing it this way, although I was all prepared to come in and make a bold read and rack a town win in nothing flat.In post 472, Lukewarm wrote:
Do you think there is something wrong with playing it this way? If yes, what?In post 469, Pavowski wrote:I'll honor this if it's how the group wants to play it
Of course in 50% of scenarios I screw town over with that move so, yeah, caution is maybe the smarter play, if not as much fun- Pavowski
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Lord.In post 481, Tanner wrote:
can i get a rundown of your experience with luke, please?In post 478, Pavowski wrote:Luke always sounds that way. It's his curse.
How much time do you have?
This is like, game #6 or something for us (Luke can tell you because he's the type to track things like that and I'm, uh, not). Of those we've been on opposing teams more often than not, which is statistically interesting if nothing else.
Basically Luke sounds the same as either alignment. Analytical and thorough and he terrifies me as scum because of this.
And also because of this, I never, ever trust him fully until he flips.
If you want more detail I can try but them's my Luke thoughts in a nutshell.- Pavowski
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See what I mean?In post 487, Lukewarm wrote:
This is #7 lolIn post 485, Pavowski wrote:This is like, game #6 or something for us (Luke can tell you because he's the type to track things like that and I'm, uh, not)- Pavowski
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Okay, the NEW game will be which of us gets to NK the other first.In post 486, Lukewarm wrote:In answering Tanner's question, I realized that we have already had the game in shakespere lol
Won't be this game, but still!- Pavowski
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This is two times tonight you've made me laugh, and that might be worth a voteIn post 514, Aristeia wrote:Tanner although we are worlds apart may I still flirt with you? the two lads in the keep seem more interested in each other :/- Pavowski
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I have already stated that if consensus is we should do it this way, I am happy to let town direct my vote here (though that's slightly different from what Aristeia is suggesting, which is letting Tanner decide)In post 539, imaginality wrote:Seems sensible. @Luke and @Pav will you commit to taking the same approach?
I would much rather be able to blame you guys than have to live with the shame myself if you make me vote wrong.- Pavowski
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This is nothing you have to worry about, I am the only funny player on site so I would only ever side with myselfIn post 539, imaginality wrote:Please don't just side with the funniest players. Or I would win every game- Pavowski
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WRT Luke's wall on me:
Spoiler:
This is not a great excuse, but I've replaced into a slot that is pretty widely scumread and lots of people want to leash the vote in this particular minigame. Add to that a family thing today and well, best I can say is ... My bad, and I will try a bit harder tonight/tomorrow.
That said, you (Luke) are SRing me pretty hard. I take it that means you'd rather vote Ari right now?
@ari, same question. If you had to vote right now, would it be me or Luke?
I do need to look more closely at the other minis, but my first thoughts are for this one. Replacing in, my goal is just to not blow this particular mini for town.
Tanner? You asked for my experience with Luke. To put a fine point on it, the case he's making here? This sounds like scum!Luke trying to make sure I don't get a foothold to keep it 1v1 with Ari.- Pavowski
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In post 605, Toogeloo wrote:I'm not finding nearly as many reads regarding numberQ from other players as I am about implosion. If people from outside our game can give reads there, I appreciate it.
Disagree. If he's scum, he has to contend with the possibility that one of us will vote the other. If he can scumlock me, he doesn't have to worry about you voting me. It's one less way for him to lose here.In post 612, Aristeia wrote:In post 611, Pavowski wrote:Tanner? You asked for my experience with Luke. To put a fine point on it, the case he's making here? This sounds like scum!Luke trying to make sure I don't get a foothold to keep it 1v1 with Ari.
I don't see why Scum!Luke would alienate you, if you become convinced he is scum, don't you just vote for me and then he loses?
It seems like a lot of effort for not much gain.- Pavowski
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Fair. What do you need to hear from me to give me a chance at winning you over?In post 613, Aristeia wrote:
If I had to vote now I would pick Luke over you.In post 611, Pavowski wrote:@ari, same question. If you had to vote right now, would it be me or Luke?- Pavowski
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See there you go again trying to get me to rush to judgment, this is what keeps me thinking you could be scum here!In post 617, Aristeia wrote:
I mean if you're locking Luke in scum trying to shade you I don't see why it would be me voting you, wouldn't it make more sense for you to vote for me?In post 615, Pavowski wrote:Fair. What do you need to hear from me to give me a chance at winning you over?
I've not locked him in as scum, I'm just leaning that way. Like, heavily, right now, but still. And don't discount the fact that he locked himself into this mini like, way early.- Pavowski
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This hasn't happened, obviously, bit this is a big town pingIn post 312, imaginality wrote:I think for the third person in Keep we should make it someone Ari and Luke agree to vote for in advance. If we can lock them in to that plan it pretty much forces scum to swap the third person if they're town. Hence my questions to them to see who they can both agree on as town.
(I am working from phone so this might be a little messy but walls stress me out)- Pavowski
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Oh, multiple times lolIn post 627, numberQ wrote:
Really embodying your profile pic huh?In post 623, Pavowski wrote:Gonna drop an edible and drop some spicy takes on the proper 1v1 tonight, buckle up
Actually did The Dude ever get high in that movie? I don't remember
@Q, in the post I quoted there it is difficult to find an angle where he entertains me not being scum fmpov. Then again, anytime Luke comes for me I get my hackles up because I know he can make a case stick as either alignment. So I'll grant it's possible I'm reading too much into it.
We have a weird relationship, lol.- Pavowski
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Did I say I TR you?In post 630, Aristeia wrote:I know one of you and Luke are mafia.
I know both of you have embraced the strategy of shading each other while saying you tr me in order to make each other jealous.
I think it's a pretty good strategy given how much you both are familiar with each other.
At this point the dance between the two of you is like a game of chicken.
Two steps forward one step back.
I'm thinking the best ending would be if the scum between the two of you votes for me, and this causes the town player to panic vote the scum.
That would be quite a thrilling conclusion.
Your scenario at the end there is pretty unlikely, though it would be dramatic. The moment any person in our game votes somebody else, the voted party should immediately self-hammer. To do otherwise would be against wincon regardless of alignment- Pavowski
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I'd press you on that but I repped into the slot I repped into, it is what it is.In post 632, numberQ wrote:I guess fair enough if you guys have history. Me SRing you now is giving me NEP flashbacks, so I'm definitely second guessing myself that our own history is coloring my read.- Pavowski
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Oh yeah, oops
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I mean, I thought this was pretty self-evident but Ari's post made me think maybe it wasn't? Which is probably +town points there to be fairIn post 635, numberQ wrote:
This is an insight I hadn't considered that kind of gives +town points to Pav. Maybe the self-vote thing was obvious to everyone else and I'm just dumb, but I don't know if scum points this out and in turn makes everyone even more cautious.In post 633, Pavowski wrote:
Did I say I TR you?In post 630, Aristeia wrote:I know one of you and Luke are mafia.
I know both of you have embraced the strategy of shading each other while saying you tr me in order to make each other jealous.
I think it's a pretty good strategy given how much you both are familiar with each other.
At this point the dance between the two of you is like a game of chicken.
Two steps forward one step back.
I'm thinking the best ending would be if the scum between the two of you votes for me, and this causes the town player to panic vote the scum.
That would be quite a thrilling conclusion.
Your scenario at the end there is pretty unlikely, though it would be dramatic. The moment any person in our game votes somebody else, the voted party should immediately self-hammer. To do otherwise would be against wincon regardless of alignment- Pavowski
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This also pings me as towny. The fact that the 2nd paragraph is exactly what happened kinda gives wifom-y vibes but I said I'd keep my takes spicy so I'll stick with townvibesIn post 314, imaginality wrote:@Tanner: you not wanting to go with numberQ and DArby makes me slightly suspicious that VP and I are both town and you're scum trying to get in with us so there's one scum among us. You saying DArby should be with VP and me if you're not doesn't do much to dissuade me from that concern.
That said, I kind of like the idea of you going to Gate with us because I think if you are town and get IC'ed you'd be a useful voice. And I think the same of VP and me, whereas DArby if town seems less useful if IC'ed.
For the same reason if VP and I are at the Wall I'd rather DArby is with us than you.- Pavowski
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Self-hammer first, expound later.In post 639, Aristeia wrote:I wouldn't self-hammer immediately just to get my own thoughts out. I would post to show I'm online and capable of self-hammering to remove any doubts that could linger about being scum and then post everything I'd want to post about the other games first.
The gambit works best if the person being voted is not online as it puts extreme time pressure on the other side.
Seriously, if you're town and you get the vote for you, delaying only gives scum time to talk the voter out of their vote. And if you're scum and you delay, well that's just... I'll say suboptimal.
As either alignment, the move is to secure the win for your minigame.
Posting that you wouldn't do this kinda sorta reads like trying to score town points for a move that's at best dubious and at worst anti-wincon.
You could be right about the gambit timing but that's a big, big risk to take. Obviously if I get voted I'll self-hammer for the win and if Luke is not thinking the same, then I don't know Jack.
I mean Luke.- Pavowski
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I should reiterate (or did I ever iterate this in the first place?) I have zero knowledge of imaginality or VP outside this game, unless there are alts involved
That's not me alt-hunting, I just say it for the sake of saying my reads here are zero-meta while my Luke read is (pretty obviously) heavy meta
(Heavy meta lol *air guitar*)- Pavowski
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Ooooooook I think I may be reaching the limit of my ability to brain tonight. If it's me I'm voting Baltar as scum in that matchup right now. I had a passing vague SR on Q from skimming the thread which I'll reevaluate soon, and then I'll smoke-test Baltar/Q/Luke vs Baltar/Q/Ari, unless the Q sr changes, in which case, whee.- Pavowski
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Yep!
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Dude. It was a joke.In post 650, VP Baltar wrote:Like that's some legit dumb shit to say- Pavowski
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Then I will apologize again and leave this for tonight. My bad.In post 655, VP Baltar wrote:
Too late. Mistake was made.In post 654, Pavowski wrote:And my apologies, further. I never intend to get people riled up.- Pavowski
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In post 650, VP Baltar wrote:Like that's some legit dumb shit to say
I was efforting pretty good last night, nglIn post 676, Aristeia wrote:I'm not really presenting a solve because I want to lock it in
I want Pavo/Tooges/Vpb to try harder if they are town.
Given my posts on Baltar last night do you think we are scum together??- Pavowski
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Baltar this is why I thought you were upset.In post 650, VP Baltar wrote:Like that's some legit dumb shit to say
I didn't mean my comment as shade, more just ironically noticing that I was posting about you and suddenly you appeared. It was an amusing coincidence as far as I'm concerned. I had forgotten you were vla.
Anyway this is my third apology for it, I don't know you like that and cracked a joke too early, it's entirely my bad, and I'm going to stop cluttering the thread with it.
Sorry.- Pavowski
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Can you explain your thoughts here a little more?In post 668, Lukewarm wrote:this is more the approach that i think that the scum team would be taking towards pav / compared to numberQ (again, even if I am wrong)
Luke I'm not a scumlock on you, I just have my usual skepticism for you. You happen to be triggering it by resisting my every move and read here, but that's okay. Don't worry, Ari has some scum points too.
fmpov one of you or Ari is scum. The obvious solution for me is asking people to vote me, as I know that's a 100% win. That's the outcome I'd prefer.
Are you convinced by this? Of course not, you think me asking for votes is scummy. But what's scummier? Asking for votes directly knowing how it'll be perceived or asking for votes by not asking for them?
This game is neat- Pavowski
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I would think that the talk about leashing votes would be something scum would want to steer away from in most cases.In post 696, Tanner wrote:
why is that a town ping?In post 628, Pavowski wrote:
This hasn't happened, obviously, bit this is a big town pingIn post 312, imaginality wrote:I think for the third person in Keep we should make it someone Ari and Luke agree to vote for in advance. If we can lock them in to that plan it pretty much forces scum to swap the third person if they're town. Hence my questions to them to see who they can both agree on as town.
same question.In post 640, Pavowski wrote:
This also pings me as towny. The fact that the 2nd paragraph is exactly what happened kinda gives wifom-y vibes but I said I'd keep my takes spicy so I'll stick with townvibesIn post 314, imaginality wrote:@Tanner: you not wanting to go with numberQ and DArby makes me slightly suspicious that VP and I are both town and you're scum trying to get in with us so there's one scum among us. You saying DArby should be with VP and me if you're not doesn't do much to dissuade me from that concern.
That said, I kind of like the idea of you going to Gate with us because I think if you are town and get IC'ed you'd be a useful voice. And I think the same of VP and me, whereas DArby if town seems less useful if IC'ed.
For the same reason if VP and I are at the Wall I'd rather DArby is with us than you.
It's also kinda -scum imo for imaginality to say "here's this thing I'd like to have happen" and then it happens (you becoming confirmed). Granted scum can bold-face their way thru something like that but this is how it struck me.- Pavowski
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Ouch. As the guy who does 95% of the driving on road trips with the fam, you have my sympathies.In post 698, VP Baltar wrote:
Also, I had just finished a white knuckled drive for 8 hours on an icy interstate, so I was definitely short tempered about what I thought was opportunistic shading. I apologize too.In post 697, VP Baltar wrote:@pav - I was not mad and you don't need to apologize for hurting my feelings or something. We're cool.- Pavowski
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The problem with this (and I know, you prefaced it with "if DArby scum") is that Darby/I are not scum, and scum locked in the keep early. Since I know this, I go back and look at:In post 752, Lukewarm wrote:Okay, got my laptop.
So, I see what you are saying, but it is hard to accept just based on my own reads. Scum Ari would have to be the most suicidal scum player ever, offering to vote you, then offering to vote me, then saying they wanted the vote, and then urging you to tell her who to vote. That last one is probably the strongest reason to think that she is town because you can argue that all the others are just talk. But if you, at any point, tell her that she should vote, that is a hard one to walk back from, so urging you to do that is wild.
So, just being up front, I am approaching this idea looking for the counter argument. Devil's advocate if you will.
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So lets play the game of, if darby were scum, would the scum of baltar/imaginiality suggest darby come to the same location as them.
Keep is locked in me+Ari, both others are open.
So, the options are:
-suggest Darby goes to the keep
-suggest Darby goes to the same location as them
-suggest Darby goes to the opposite location as them.
I don't know that there was ever a good argument to send Darby to the keep at the time, so I kinda want to throw that option away.
Having Scum!Darby go to the same location as them forces a 2-1-0 split. Sending Scum!Darby to the opposite location also forces a 2-1-0 split, unless they think that they can get their other partner into the keep.
So, could Scum!Toog or Scum!numberQ get into the keep, and would they want to? I don't think that scum!numberQ could have gotten themselves into the keep. Scum!Toog probably could have. So, if scum were prioritizing a 1-1-1 split in this scenario, then maybe this points to scum!numberQ.
But I also don't see Toog or numberQ winning the keep. So even if they get one of them there, then I think they end up swappng them out for Darby anyways?
If on the other hand, scum had already accepted a 2-1-0 split, then I don't think they care where DArby goes at that point? He goes to the wall, they swap him with implo to decide the wall, if he goes to the gate, they swap him with implo and make implo the IC.
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So, I think that your point is valid, if the scum team was prioritizing a 1-1-1 split, but falls apart if they had accepted a 2-1-0 split.
It does however even further clear implo I think? If implo is scum, then I think that they must have achieved a 1-1-1 split. I don't think that they would have accidentally achieved that, and if they were aiming for that, then I don't think they would have been out making suggestions that would have taken it away.
So, my conclusion is that them both suggesting DArby could go to either place implies that they accepted a 2-1-0 split and that implo is town.
Scum!Ari grabbing slot #2 on the keep ensures scum doesn't lose immediately on d1, and if I accept Luke's argument about quick-snagging the first slot, this could make perfect sense.In post 747, Aristeia wrote:I do want to think about the order people went in for a bit..
Luke[K] -> Ari[K] -> VPB[G] -> Tooge[W] -> NQ[W] -> Imag[G] -> Implo[K] -> Tanner[G] -> Pavo[W]- Pavowski
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Ouch. Feel better, panda.In post 818, Toogeloo wrote:So...
I have severe sinusitis and mild pneumonia. I have a couple medications to take for both.
I'm officially requesting replacement in all my commitments.- Pavowski
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Absolutely notIn post 823, Aristeia wrote:
mhmmIn post 819, Pavowski wrote:Scum!Ari grabbing slot #2 on the keep ensures scum doesn't lose immediately on d1, and if I accept Luke's argument about quick-snagging the first slot, this could make perfect sense.
Do you think Luke is out of his scum~range?- Pavowski
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I am often scumread at least a bit just as a baseline (except maybe for Luke himself, lol). Here I'm repping in without early game shenanigans to win me any points, and more than that, I'm repping into a slot generally scumread. I figure he figures I'm less likely to win a vote from you. (If he's scum.)In post 826, Aristeia wrote:Why does scum!Luke bring you into the Keep?- Pavowski
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There is also the possibility that Implo is scum, and I (or you) *had* to be moved.In post 828, Aristeia wrote:ok but Luke's already fairly strongly townread and I don't think he'd have problems winning keep against someone else either?
Why not just leave you to be easy pickings at the Wall instead?
If anything you are more familiar with Luke's play than anyone else here and you are less likely to be fooled by him into voting for him....- Pavowski
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I haven't explored this in the depth it deserves yet, I do need to examine that mini closerIn post 829, Pavowski wrote:
There is also the possibility that Implo is scum, and I (or you) *had* to be moved.In post 828, Aristeia wrote:ok but Luke's already fairly strongly townread and I don't think he'd have problems winning keep against someone else either?
Why not just leave you to be easy pickings at the Wall instead?
If anything you are more familiar with Luke's play than anyone else here and you are less likely to be fooled by him into voting for him....- Pavowski
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I wouldn't agree, necessarily. I can be convinced to townread Luke. (As a corollary I'm sure he can be convinced to townread me, though maybe not in this game, lol.)In post 831, Aristeia wrote:Ok but even if Implosion is scum, why would Luke switch Implosion out for you instead of Tooges or NumberQ?
Don't you think it's much easier for Luke to convince either Tooges/NumberQ to vote for Luke rather than you just from how much familiarity you two have with each other?
As a bonus it would leave your own limbaity slot in Wall where you are more likely to be mis-limmed...- Pavowski
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This is actually a good point. Luke and I have history, but he knows I be posting and talking for better or worseIn post 832, Lukewarm wrote:Actually, in that scenario, I could have swapped myself with Pav. left implo to try and win the wall, and then I would have been in a pretty good spot win in a luke v numberq v toog Wall minigame- Pavowski
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On the final game, I reviewed the ISOs.
I've seen Q be more involved and more vocal, but their interactions seem generally genuine and their willingness to re-evaluate reads gives me slight townvibes. (Earlier scumread was based on skimming and meta comparing the amount of posts, before Luke jumps all up on my junk)
Implo has a couple of posts that give me the creeps regarding Luke early (giving some decent Luke/Implo equity) but sounds reasonably earnest and open, and I think I have to keep leaning towny there
Then there's Toog who .... sounds like Toog.
Toog's not a bad guess for scum there, but it feels too easy. I just don't have a great reason to townread the slot (though I don't have powerful reasons to scumread there, either). But Toog's doing something that nobody else seems to be doing (or at least isn't doing loudly): scumreading Ari at the keep. That seems a bit out there when I'm an easy target for a scumread. Doesn't seem the sort of thing scum's going to go out on a limb to do.
Still, gth, I'd probably vote Toog here absent any other flips.
tl;dr, I have no clue what to make of the wall and basically nothing would surprise me in this one.
There, I think I've done my civic duty and voiced thoughts on all three games.- Pavowski
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secondedIn post 842, VP Baltar wrote:There's so much pointless mech talk in this game.. fucking kill me. - Pavowski
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