Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Lukewarm]

My concern at the moment is that you might know that keep associatives look bad for you, and therefore want to go first.

I don't see at all what would look bad for me there? Like the worst thing I think would be if someone said I had scum equity with you...which shouldn't make sense from your perspective

I think that a green Ari flip looks bad on you the same way that you are saying that your green flip would look bad on Ari, because then her case on you is then also coming from confirmed town.

And imaginality has also presented you as partnered with Pav, which obviously would be more threatening to you if correct and then flipped red.

So I kinda see why scum!you would want to flip before the keep.

---

But I also think that your town!reasoning for wanting to flip first stayed fairly consistent to questioning.

This might have been a fruitless line.

[Lukewarm]

ari, which one of vp and imaginality is scum, and what do you think about my points on imaginality's associate-case looking Not Good?

I think him wanting to be flipped first is a good look for him but on the balance everything else is quite disgusting.

Did you have thoughts on imaginaity's partner-case?

[Lukewarm]

Does Baltar consistently not acknowledging that the gate is only the easy win from his PoV , and is the middle of the pack from everyone elses, more likely to come from town or scum Baltar?

I kinda go back and forth between it being scum bravado, or town not considering the game from other people's pov.

It has been consistent from the moment day 2 opened, all the way up to now, when he presented why the gate makes the most sense to go first.

[Lukewarm]

Does Baltar consistently not acknowledging that the gate is only the easy win from his PoV , and is the middle of the pack from everyone elses, more likely to come from town or scum Baltar?

I kinda go back and forth between it being scum bravado, or town not considering the game from other people's pov.

It has been consistent from the moment day 2 opened, all the way up to now, when he presented why the gate makes the most sense to go first.

I think that the answer to this would probably take meta homework.

@Tanner, you've played with him, what do you think?

[Lukewarm]

@Baltar, from your/imaginality's PoV, the Gate is mech solved. It is the easy game.

From literally everyone elses, your game is a 50/50, and the Keep is the easier game.

[Lukewarm]

On face, I think that I would lean towards it being + town for him actually.

I think doing it once would be +scum for bravado, but the consistency of it makes me question it - because scum would be more aware of other people considering them as the scum at the gate I think?

I don't know that this amounts to anything... I'm gonna sleep on it.

[Lukewarm]

he sniped me with that. And him outlining the reason he is consciously posting the way I just said is a new wrench in this line of thinking.

[Lukewarm]

Can you tell me what you have read so far?

[Lukewarm]

I think that you forgot that Lukewarm desperately wanted to win and swapped you and Pavowski in order to fulfil his desire. Remember 125. Lukewarm was hellbent on winning Keep and scum!Lukewarm would have saw you as a threat.

What does this even mean?

How does swapping Pav and implo "help me fulfil my desire?" You seem to be talking to Implo like he is town, so from your pov that means we were at :

Scum!luke, Ari, Implo at the Keep and scum!numberQ, toog, pav at the Wall.

Why not swap toog over pav? In popcorn Toog had me as his top town read and pav read me as scum? And pav acts paranoid of me in every game since my scum newbie game. And then Pav would have been the miselim bait at the wall

This feels like you started with the idea that you were going to call me scum, and went with it.

[Lukewarm]

oh yeah, and didn't you just say that you were null on implo v numberQ?

Does your logic on me even check out in a scum!implo world? Which you seemed to still be considering?

[Lukewarm]

I'm so confused

[Lukewarm]

I was more saying that if it was being faked, and I would have assumed that it was put on in the moment. And would have been less likely to keep showing up consistently in his approach.

But if it were Genuine Town Thoughts, then it would be a consistent way of thinking about the game.

But again, him being aware of the fact that he was posting that way makes it weird all over again. If he is scum, I think that 1194 and 1195 were a misplay on his part, and he should have just let me get there on my own. Which I literally was in the middle of getting there as he typed it lol

[Lukewarm]

The benefit of doing the gate first is that is where the most associatives will come from. Fingers crossed, Tanner votes out imaginality and town is then up a game with good associatives to win the keep.

What associatives from the Gate do you think will help us win the Keep after you are gone? You already have those associatives, what do they tell you?

Most strongly that Ari's scum equity goes up with an imaginality red flip.

It's not a slam dunk, but I think people think I'm a little crazy right now. Knowing for a fact I'm town will show that the arguments I'm making need serious consideration

This is probably the towniest thing you've said all game

which is great because it makes very little sense.

Pointless spec

A good summary of your entire scum game.

this is probably the towniest post VPB has made all game

VPB keeps setting personal bests tonight lol

[Lukewarm]

RH, I really would like to know what parts of the game that you have actually read

[Lukewarm]

Hello friends.

I am having a kinda crappy morning atm, but I am here!

Gonna catch up

[Lukewarm]

There's zero point in me reading a bunch of scum BS.

What is going on between you and imaginality?

....

[Lukewarm]

Notice

Spoiler: Important

I skipped Tanner because he is confirmed Town.

Spoiler: Table

My Observations and Reads
Players		Analysis
Original	Replacement	Notes	Verdict
numberQ		288 can be made from a Town trying to give advice or scum hiding a warning as Galron once did here in Mini 2250. I agree with 335, though this is NAI because scum can be agreeable too. I agree with his opinion of my predecessor in 530. However, I disagree with 531. I don't think that Pavowski is scum. However, the clarification in 551 makes me feel better. 687 seems like a good question but both Town and scum have the motivation to ask that.	Null
implosion		79, 84, 178 could come from both scum and Town for similar reasons on why numberQ's advice in 288 is NAI. I agree with 129, especially the last sentence. 131 confuses me. I agree with 591, in that scum likely moved implosion because he was getting TRed a lot and scum moved him in order to let themselves win. This points to scum!Lukewarm because he was notably desperate in winning as seen in 125. I agree with 593. 594 feels like Town because he is trying to sort the people that are in his minigame. I think that it is a bit odd that implosion doesn't feel like Lukewarm is scum, though. 674 is so true. I vehemently disagree with 901 for making Lukewarm look like he has almost completely no chance of being scum. 904 is annoying me to pieces because why do you not consider that Lukewarm is scum who has Aristeia pocketed? 908 is so true, though. If I was scum, I would definitely considering bussing. Most of posts afterwards seems to be a meaningless argument with Aristeia. 1203 is a decent comeback.	Null
imaginality		195 seems odd as though he's trying to please people and it feels fake. However, I have done that as Town before, making it NAI. 260 could be a clarification of a genuine mistake or a deliberate one intended as a reaction test. This is NAI. I find that for similar reasons on why numberQ's and implosion's advice is NAI, it applies to imaginality's 283 too. Most other posts seem NAI too. 691, 971, and 1248 feels like single-minded attack on VP Baltar. 1230 feels like he somehow changed his mind and thus he realises that he's looking like we are scum together.	Null
Lukewarm		1032 felt off to me due to his astounding confidence on his reads. Seeing that implosion got moved and how much Lukewarm exhibited a desire to win in 125, it is obvious that Lukewarm is scum. He seems strangely into meta and theory. Examples of this include 29, 32, 34, 78, 101, 324, 484, 554 and 896.	Scum
DArby	Pavowski	As previously noted in 1086, 1060 feels like Pavowski is trying to do something which is something that I don't think that scum would do. This is because volunteering himself for a vote would appear LAMIST. I agree with a couple of his posts. Examples include 463, 467, 611, 614. Why is Pavowski the only one to get it?Why did my predecessor think so highly of Lukewarm? I agree with 50 149, and 150 from DArby. There is no way that Pavowski is scum.	Town
Aristeia		I like a lot of her posts. Examples include 100, 102 and 107. 108 makes me want to scream at my predecessor for placing Lukewarm on a pedestal instead of noticing the wisdom of Aristeia. 110 is so correct. 153 is a good idea. 290 is so sweet. 488. makes sense. 920 is so true. Anybody who disagrees is scum. 922 almost makes me think that I'm wrong on Lukewarm. Also, Aristeia, you remind me of marcistar and Morning Tweet.	Townlean
VP Baltar		Seems to ask questions a couple of times. Examples include 9, 147, 151, 161, 180, 186, 207, 221 and 387. 205 feels defensive. I don't get 217 and 395. I agree with 771. I like response to imaginality in 856. Scumreads in 859 makes sense. 864 shows good solving intent. 918 seems like he is wanting answers. 975 seems like he's gone and actually done research. Interactions with Aristeia, which include 979 and 981, feels like he is trying to work with her. 1209 seems like Town wanting to know things. I feel like 1243 and 1244 makes sense.	Townlean

Editor notes: this reads list does not make sense based on the mechanics of this game, maybe think about those some before you submit it. Thanks!

Like, RH Knows, or at least should know, that there is a scum in NumberQ and Implosion. They are both Null

He also knows that there is scum between Baltar and Imaginality. They are Null and Town Lean. Shouldn't a town lean on one necessitate a scum lean on the other?

So, he appears to not have thought to try and come up with a solve for the gate or for the wall.

The only game he has proposed a "solve" for is the Keep, and gotta say. Not a fan.

Looks like it boils down to: Luke is playing like he wants to win, and is interested by meta, and mech. And therefore is scum. But tbh, feels like a "Luke is Luke, and therefore is scum" argument.

[Lukewarm]

mmm

how tilted is lukewarm at imaginality in the scum pt rn?

Is this a reaction test, or have you suddenly 180'd on your read on both games?

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I have read through the Ari / Imaginality back and forth, and read it a second time.

I started typing up one response that basically agreed with Ari, because it seems like a good point. but I was ending on the conclusion that he was avoiding ever calling me or Ari scum, because we were both doing the work of pushing Baltar for him. Also reminded me of an earlier post that Baltar made about his reads being fairly status quo reads, in a don't rock the boat kinda way.

But deleted that one, because I remembered that Imaginality did make a post considering scum me when he commented on the "slip" post I made about Baltar.

But now I just looked back at that. Was more of a foot note, less of a serious point I think. (not starting over again, again)

So, I guess I am back to scum!imaginality would have been avoiding rocking the boat with his reads, so did not want to call me or ari scum.

I am a little irked that ari jumped to me being scum with him without considering this tbh.

------

On the flip side tho, I feel like Ari has left me feeling like she is never partnered with imaginality here. Which coupled with me feeling the same way about her and baltar before has kinda gotten rid of any doubt I had that she could be scum?

I was kinda holding off offering to vote her, because I was worried that that was a possibility, even if only a small one. And with talks of people voting me, just letting that happened seemed like the safest option.

But if there is doubt on me from this, I feel even better about voting her. I kinda think that the best game plan for us right now is for me to put together my if x then y post today, and then vote Ari.

[Lukewarm]

Oh dear! Thanks, implosion! I just realised that I was confbiased on Lukewarm. Maybe, I have been in the wrong, this entire time. I am so grateful that you are here.

This 180 on me feels weird. I was literally his only scum read like a page ago

Every time he posts, I lean more and more on him being scum.

[Lukewarm]

And it also reads like it is buddy buddy to implosion

[Lukewarm]

The only person that I am annoyed at is myself for taking so long to get out of my confbias and upsetting implosion, who is the best for being so patient and understanding.

Like, every single post he made on this page.

[Lukewarm]

THEN i came up with a reason why imaginality/aristea is definitely 2/3rds of our scumteam here

Was this before or after reading their 1v1 last night?

[Lukewarm]

On the flip side tho, I feel like Ari has left me feeling like she is never partnered with imaginality here.

Can I get details on why you think this?

Because she just presented a reasonably compelling case against him, town cased you, and created a situation that increased the odds that the Gate then gets voted on first.

Like, an imaginality + ari would mean Ari just decided to massively tank her odds at the Gate, which would mean they were betting the game on winning the wall.

I also felt like imaginality looked a little unprepared for that 1v1. Which would be true in any combination of their alignments except S/S

[Lukewarm]

Anyways, I am off - might fuck around and see if my irl day gets any better

I am planning to write my if x then y post tonight, and we can decide what to do from there I think

[Lukewarm]

Because I don't actually have the ability to turn my brain off, I was thinking. Why does imaginality not seem to worry about a red Ari flip?

Multiple people have said that a scum Ari = a town baltar (including me)

So if imaginality is scum, I don't think that he ever wants the keep to go first if Ari is scum with him.

You can add that to the "reasons imaginality and Ari are not partners together"

[Lukewarm]

If X then Y

If Ari flips red

Gate

-

Imaginality

Baltar

It is interesting here that I am ending with the exact opposite solve then I expected.

Ari has gone head to head with both, and frankly appears unconnected to either, but if she does flip red she has to be matched with one.

Interestingly, Ari was hard scum reading Baltar while she was advocating for the Keep to go first (1137). Which is the order that that could make sense as a scum play. Push him hard, get flipped red, hope that clears him. Compare that to imaginality, she pushed him hard and seems to be okay with imaginality flipping first.

The approach with Baltar would have had the potential to win both games. The approach with imaginality tanks one game to win the other. I don't really see the need for Scum!Ari to make that drastic switch when Gate->Keep likely won her the game with her prior approach.

Wall

-

Fuck if I know

for associative, but probably default to RH9 on his slot independently

Ari's inteactions across the wall have been less apparently unaligned.

Her numberQ read has been strangely consistent but shallow. 679 915 919
Her repeated accusations that Implo dies if I flip read mean nothing since I know I flip town. So an empty assosiative for scum ari 906.
Her toog read is kind of an inverse of numberq, consistent but not thought out, or at least expressed as fully, the way that her imaginality / baltar reads were thought out.

If Pav flips red

Gate

-

imaginality

,

Baltar

Ari's case on him is pretty compreling imo, and I was already slowly starting to shift to baltar being town before she ever mentioned it.

Imaginality seems weirdly unconcerned by the possibility of a scum!ari flip 1360 - "lets flip keep first, because it will help me win the gate!" Me flipping red would have helped him. Pav flipping read would have helped him. Ari flipping read would have tanked the game for him. I feel like he would have at least been worried about this scenario, but I don't see it anywhere?

Baltar on the other hand was aiming to flip first. This always loses the keep for scum!Pav, because ari is always voted in that scenario.

Wall

-

Implosion

- surprised me to btw - for associatives, still RH9 based on independent play.

In both options above (pav + imagin, or pav + baltar), I struggle to ever see Pav win the keep. But neither imaginality or baltar or pav seem particularly pressed, none of them are out here wildly trying to shake up the reads in the wall, or going hard on reads there to try and build strong false associatives.

I think that implosion is the only one at the keep that they could be sitting pretty comfortable thinking they had a shot to still win two games.

Where is the sudden change in strategy once RH9 swapped in, and feels like he is obvscum there, and that game is lost? Where is the pressure for numberQ (even just in the scum chat, but for us to feel the effects in the main thread) for him to really up his game while toog was gone? instead we got 1045, and Nothing

(This point on implosion assosiatives was not mentioned on the ari assositives, because Ari had a chance to win the Keep. )

[Lukewarm]

My day did not get better, but it did gain a migraine. My if x then y post is here as promised, but that is probably all I got for tonight

[Lukewarm]

Tanner, are there are things you still wanted to discuss with me / ari / pav ?

[Lukewarm]

Yeah, I was thinking about voting.

Pretty sure that the Ari vote wins the keep, and not worth the effort it would take to sway the vote to me if it would win anyways. May be the migraine talking, but :shrug:

[Lukewarm]

He didn't?

He wanted me to vote Ari, with a back up of pav having voting power.

[Lukewarm]

I feel surest about Ari being town and Luke has said he thinks Ari's town so if it's entirely my call I'd get Luke to vote Ari.
If we do the 'get the scummiest player to choose who to vote' thing I'd get Pav to choose between the other two.

[Lukewarm]

I would like Keep first as well <3

Meant 1133

[Lukewarm]

Luke, why do you think imaginality wanted to give

Ari

Pav the voting power in your game?

To answer this question, there are three possibilities.

He is town, and thinks that Ari had the most negative assossiatives with you and least likely to be partnered with you. Which, relatable.

He is scum with Ari, and this wins the keep

He is scum with Pav, and he is scared to call pav town at any point (and they really did sent the DArby slot to the keep to die)

[Lukewarm]

Interestingly, Ari was hard scum reading Baltar while she was advocating for the Keep to go first (1137). Which is the order that that could make sense as a scum play. Push him hard, get flipped red, hope that clears him. Compare that to imaginality, she pushed him hard and seems to be okay with imaginality flipping first.

The approach with Baltar would have had the potential to win both games. The approach with imaginality tanks one game to win the other. I don't really see the need for Scum!Ari to make that drastic switch when Gate->Keep likely won her the game with her prior approach.

could you explain this to me? because based on the colours, i'm assuming you're saying you think she'd be partnered with imaginality, but i don't get how you come to that conclusion if your read is "the approach with imaginality wins one and tanks the other"?

Those colors should be swapped. I originally had baltar red, imaginality green. But decided to change them to orange and yellow to show I was less certain on the assosiatives then the red / green ones, but apparently flubbed the color switch.

[Lukewarm]

wait
dont migraine post. Colors are hard

[Lukewarm]

Those colors should be swapped.

This is true for the quote you grabbed. Guess i flubbed the colors out the gate.

The change from red/green to orange/yellow was under pav.

I am going to bed.

Good night all

[Lukewarm]

This is what I get for trying to use this sites text color system at all. Its what I deserve

[Lukewarm]

If X then Y

If Ari flips red

Gate

-

Imaginality

Baltar

--

If Pav flips red

Gate

-

imaginality

,

Baltar

I think the only issue in the of post was the color you just pointed out

[Lukewarm]

All the words were right. In my post. So your reading that the colors seemed wrong was correct.

Scum Ari = scum baltar

Ari's play around imaginality is game throwing if they are partners, and I don't think Ari throws games

[Lukewarm]

Napping diminished migraine. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers

[Lukewarm]

Tanner frantically ctrl+fing my scum games rn for the word "notes" to pull out an aha for some shit I don't remember saying because he is too afraid to power hammer imaginality.

first of all, fuck you, i wasn't ctrl+f'ing "note" in your scumgames from last year

second of all what in the everloving fuck is this:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11943578
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11956698
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11956705
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11956721

like, the amount of "MY NOTES" is actually agh

lmao

[Lukewarm]

Napping diminished migraine. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers

I am glad you feel better

<3

[Lukewarm]

Somebody said earlier today that we could use a flip in this game to stop us going in circles, and I am very much in circling mode

Maybe even circling the drain mode

Agreed. And now that I forced out my if x then y post, I might be a little salty if we dont go first lol

[Lukewarm]

tanner if you actually can't trust me just tell me and I will vote for who I think is town

if that person is mafia you can blame it on me for having shitty reads

To be frank, this suggestion scares me. Ari has suggested that she thinks I am scum with imaginality, so this seems like a recipe to lose the keep x.x

Ari making this offer is +townie for her again for anyone keeping score at home tho

[Lukewarm]

well okay it's 2am and i am going to sleep, try to not kill each other while i'm gone

or do

Wait. Are you seriously not going to direct the keep resolution now?

[Lukewarm]

Napping diminished migraine. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers

Glad you're feeling better Luke. I'm gonna pull a Marci to settle the question of you.

Are you scum, yes or yes

Well, I am truly backed into a corner now. You got me

[Lukewarm]

I want you to know Luke even if you are just saying these things to pocket me I still treasure them very fondly and your posting has made me smile happily countless times so I do appreciate that <3

Back at you I think?

The tale is much sweeter if we are town who found one another though

[Lukewarm]

Wait don't just do it Ari shit we've taken all this time don't rush it now

she is talking about you big dummy lol

I have typed my vote for ari and deleted it twice already. The idea of doing it, and being wrong is lowkey giving me a panic attack. Jesus christ this was supposed to be the easy game

[Lukewarm]

Like my hands are literally shaking right now. omg

[Lukewarm]

I guess I break the ice then

VOTE: ari

[Lukewarm]

LUKE fuckkkkkk

Jesus Christ. If you were town, you voting me was the way out of this. omg

[Lukewarm]

luke i'm town

I wouldn't troll you

Well somebody is

[Lukewarm]

Pav, please tell me I did the right thing? Please?

[Lukewarm]

I fucking need prism to come flip this for me or I am going to be sick

[Lukewarm]

Okay. Hear me out. I think that Ari is actually trolling on being scum. 1567 and 1569 give those vibes. Maybe we are okay?

I want to vomit

[Lukewarm]

LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKE

If you are town, maybe accept "I repped into a scummy slot, so a townie would be scum reading me here" some time in the future. Thanks!

[Lukewarm]

migraine

lowkey giving me a panic attack

my hands are literally shaking right now. omg

I want to vomit

This has been a fun night. This is a game that I chose to play, no one forces me. I enjoy this game. Right?

[Lukewarm]

Implo, you might want to catch up a bit faster

[Lukewarm]

Good game all, sorry to the scum team for my vote.

I will say, that after we died, I learned that absolutely no one else was aware that Ari was actively building up to voting for Pav.

It turned into a conversation about why I would do it, since I was so close to winning the keep. But I really wasn't. Ari even said in the dead thread that if Tanner had told her/Pav to vote for me, she would have voted for Pav.

[Lukewarm]

Like, she was so sure that I was scum, that AFTER I VOTED FOR HER, she still was thinking of me as a member of the scum team.

ok ok

final guess:

Lukewarm - Implosion - Imaginality


I'm doing this for fun.

Please don't actually blind-sheep me, do your own work.

<3 you Tanner See you on the other side my love.

[Lukewarm]

I'm not going to keep begging you to finally townread me, it's obviously not going to happen atp if it hasn't happened already so just tell me and I will get this right for the both of us.

Or I'll fail and you can blame me for messing it up.

I am happy either way with a resolution here.

Tanner will you let me go please?

This is Ari actively asking Tanner to be allowed to vote for Pav.

I saw this, and felt like I had to do something, or I was going to lose at any moment.

So I tried to gambit, and it failed.

I realized later, that I should have made an "intent to vote Ari" post, and told Pav that he had 10 mins to vote me to avoid it, or else I was just voting for her.

But, I really did expect to see an ari vote for pav at any time, and I was a little panicked.

[Lukewarm]

RH9, I think you did great!

You were making moves that I would have been too afraid to do, and they resulted in both numberq and implosion thinking you were town! I was impressed.

[Lukewarm]

I want to note I purposely threw in the line about deadline to drive Tanner to the warmth and comfort afforded only by a handle of vodka and I am not sorry, I regret nothing.

lol

I called you out for this in the dead thread

[Lukewarm]

I apologize for trolling. I normally would be er do that after a hammer, but I really did not want to give Ari time to yell about me being scum = imaginality being scum, so I needed her to think I was town until Prism locked the thread x.x