Micro 1058: Is This Thing Loaded? -- Game Over!
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Guilty Lion’s name looks familiar, think I may have played with them years ago? Otherwise you’re all strangers to me. I’m phone posting but I can link some games next time I’m on pc, but mini 2273 is my most recent finished game (town). I haven’t played for a few years though but I’ve played mafia off and on for a long time, I tend to come back, play a few games then disappear again for a while- Alexcellent
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Oh dang lol, make that 2 people I've played withIn post 23, Bambi Jay wrote:Alex is a decent shot as a vigilante so I wish him good luck on that front. If any of you played with Elsa Jay that's also me. But I'm the more snarky and aggressive version, so take how I play as Elsa with a grain of salt.
Anyway by page 3 I feel like I'll have enough information to pick and tunnel someone for the rest of the day. So be entertaining or perish in the name of freedom.
We just recently finished a mini (Bambi was Elsa) where I was a vig and shot maf traitor n1, I'm pretty sure that's her meaningIn post 33, Galron wrote:
Bambi what is this?In post 23, Bambi Jay wrote:Alex is a decent shot as a vigilante- Alexcellent
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In post 35, Dunnstral wrote:
I think you are faking this misunderstanding of the setup to look townIn post 32, Bambi Jay wrote:But frankly all I can say is that if scum got Roleblocker this game is townsided while if doctor it's scumsuded.
VOTE: Bambi Jay
Speaking of that mini, Bambi did you roll scum again?In post 38, Bambi Jay wrote:
???In post 35, Dunnstral wrote:
I think you are faking this misunderstanding of the setup to look townIn post 32, Bambi Jay wrote:But frankly all I can say is that if scum got Roleblocker this game is townsided while if doctor it's scumsided.
VOTE: Bambi Jay
Ehh. I only just noticed that they get to choose it. Thought it was like the blank/live or Bomb/Saint situation. Voting me for misunderstanding that seems pretty dumb tho.
VOTE: Dunn
This is very reminiscent to me of D1 Mini 2273. I was town and Bambi was scum. I voted for her because she appeared scummy to me and she dropped a pretty OMGUSy vote in return. This exchange is giving me some real deja vu.
VOTE: Bambi
I think this is E-2.- Alexcellent
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Why?In post 36, Frogsterking wrote:Okay on a skim by the way I scum read Dunnstral.- Alexcellent
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Tbh there's a few of us that haven't said much. I find Dunn's vote on Bambi to be kind of null but I wouldn't say it's without reason.In post 44, Frogsterking wrote:
He's just voting some person for no reason and lurking and barely saying anything.In post 43, Alexcellent wrote:
Why?In post 36, Frogsterking wrote:Okay on a skim by the way I scum read Dunnstral.- Alexcellent
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I'm in Aus but I can't speak for the rest of the listIn post 50, kutiplz wrote:I take it this is an australia regional player list? This works for me. Since I like playing at night.
What do you think of the votes on Dunnstral and Bambi? It's sort of the only noteworthy thing that's happened in this game and you've not commented on itIn post 51, kutiplz wrote:Anyway I want questions and what not. I would like attention please and ty- Alexcellent
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Any thoughts on the Dunnstral/Frogster/Bambi stuff?
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Gut tells me that the GL/Phoenix stuff is maybe TvT but I dislike 90 a fair bit.
I typically follow with this playstyle of voting someone > not voting someone. But I think it's hard to SR an early unvote because I've seen so many cases of people just not having the same playstyle as me. Like maybe it is passive of Phoenix but I don't think it's necessarily scummy. I've played some games (recently too) with town players who just nurse their vote forever, which I don't agree with but eh.In post 87, GuiltyLion wrote:
I'm not sure if this is AI or just playstyle friction but I strongly, strongly dislike this unvote, and the motivation in it as well as the comment preceding. Voting is always better than not voting. While reasoning for scumreads is obviously good, I don't like the implication here that you need to meet a certain standard of evidence/justification for a vote. Game is in a low info state and the best way to create info is to vote, create wagons, force people into taking stances. Sitting around not voting anyone and dismissing potentially good leads keeps the game in a low-info state. And what do you think the point of RVS is if you're just going to unvote once "we're out" of it and go nowhere with it afterwards?In post 60, Ph0enix wrote:Not sure that's enough justification to place a vote tbh.
It appears we're out or RVS by now, so...
UNVOTE:
I see in 75 you don't seem to be scumreading Dunnstral, so what is the point of your comment on his vote? Why are you dismissing an attempt to pressure another player? If you aren't suspicious of Dunn's motivations then commenting like this on his vote feels to me like you're more interested in sounding reasonable or fair than you are in finding and pressuring scum.
Yeahhhh I dislike this though. I think this rubs me the wrong way because it's a scum read that I don't really agree with framed with town reads that I also don't agree with or at least understand. Maybe I'm paranoid of being pocketed but idk, I kind of got minor town vibes from Phoenix's interactions so this comes off as either a very weak scumread or a disingenuous one.In post 90, GuiltyLion wrote:I think Alexcellent and Galron are town
I am going to wait for Frog to respond to Dunn before I fully weigh in on that case, but I will say I think Dunn's point about Frog's focus being more narrow in his scum games than the town games is the more compelling argument to me.
however I want to
VOTE: Ph0enix
very much giving me vibes/profiile of scum trying to get their foothold in the game by asking basic questions and making safe/non-controversial comments, while not actually taking anyrealinitiative to pursue reads or sort players. 65 is another example in addition to what I said about 60, a non-comment comment, "I don't like meta but I agree with your meta finding", that does not strike me as a comment that comes from a real intention to solve, and it also pushes me away from a Frogster vote currently because it's exactly how I'd expect scum to gently encourage a TvT.- Alexcellent
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It IS fakeable but like... it's unlikely, IMO. I normally don't see scum digging through other people's games to find arguments they can make up this early in the game. It's just extremely pro-active and looks a lot like town that's noticed something rather than scum trying to push an agenda. Like it doesn't at all confirm Dunnstral as town obvs but it's townier than anything else that's been said or done in this game so far. If Dunnstral is actually scum then fair play to them, that's a boss move.In post 98, Ph0enix wrote:
Hard, hard disagree on that one. I don't understand why everyone is jumping to conclusions that it doesn't feel fakeable. As I said in a previous post, I get that Town players will naturally be more willing to push the conservation forward and so doing all this digging may be a slight TR, hence why I put Dunn as a possible slight TR in said post. However, to think that it's strongly Town indicative, let alone not fakeable, I can't get behind. Why would it not be fakeable? Why would Scum not spend some time digging if it apparently means a safe TR from some of the other players?kutiplz wrote: I'm catching up but yeaaaa Dunn is town. This doesn't feel fake able.- Alexcellent
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As in you don't get why they're voting each other or you disagree with them?
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Mainly his interactions have kind of felt town, but also when I pointed out a meta scum read on Bambi he took the time to go looking for the post to get clarification on it, which is something I don't really think scum does? Maybe I'm used to lazy scum but it's hard for me to view scum going out of their way to do that and not push an agenda off of it or something.In post 108, GuiltyLion wrote:
to be frank, even if he's town and playing passive, it's anti-town behavior that creates an easier environment for scum and so it should be scrutinized regardless. if he's town I trust myself to sort that out over timeIn post 102, Alexcellent wrote:I typically follow with this playstyle of voting someone > not voting someone. But I think it's hard to SR an early unvote because I've seen so many cases of people just not having the same playstyle as me. Like maybe it is passive of Phoenix but I don't think it's necessarily scummy. I've played some games (recently too) with town players who just nurse their vote forever, which I don't agree with but eh.
why do you think his interactions with your or his post 98 is townie? That post kinda reeks of defensive scum to me. His reflexive scumread back on me feels more like it's meant to discredit my argument than a real belief that I'm scum - I don't buy that he genuinely thinks I am more likely/only going to "scumread" him if I were scum
just cause you don't understand or agree with my townreads doesn't mean they aren't genuine. Don't get me wrong, I get why people won't immediately follow why I townread those players, but I don't really feel a need atm to dive deep on why I have them or convince people until someone steps up to actively disagree and scumreads those players. I feel you on kuti being fluffy and it's not a bad point that they should have expressed more of an opinion on some of the actual #content, but my vibe is they're excited to play and they have nothing to hideIn post 102, Alexcellent wrote:Yeahhhh I dislike this though. I think this rubs me the wrong way because it's a scum read that I don't really agree with framed with town reads that I also don't agree with or at least understand. Maybe I'm paranoid of being pocketed but idk, I kind of got minor town vibes from Phoenix's interactions so this comes off as either a very weak scumread or a disingenuous one.
I don't really get a super defensiveness vibe from 98 but upon saying that I don't reeeeeally like the vote back on you. The main thing in there that I dislike is his disagreement about the Dunnstral town reads but I'm not sure that's AI.
Fair enough on your TRs, I guess I feel better about the Galron read if you have meta with him. Do you think town Galron is likely to sheep your vote on Phoenix?
I don't agree with the Kuti TR but not enough to fight over it and them questioning it themselves is a feather in their cap.
P-Edit: actually I do dislike the whataboutism there so I see your point. But I was sort of following with his logic of the Galron TR at the end. I at the very least feel like Galron and you as a scum team are super unlikely.- Alexcellent
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@Bambi
In post 106, Alexcellent wrote:@Bambi, what do you think of Dunnstral's push on Frogster?- Alexcellent
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Why these? Do you have any scum reads?In post 132, Sara wrote:I think Galron, Ph0enix, GL and kuti could be town- Alexcellent
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I've read back through the GL/Phoenix stuff a few times and yeah, I dunno. I at least think it's not a Phoenix/GL scum team. And I kinda feel that it's not a GL/Galron scum team either so that's neat. There's stuff in there that I dislike but it's probably more that I disagree with so I'm just going to roll with the idea that it's probably TvT.- Alexcellent
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In post 152, Frogsterking wrote:UNVOTE: Dunnstral
I'm starting to think Dunnstral may be a paranoid Townie and not scum.Gross.
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I probably should be annoyed at how D1 ended but this in retrospect is pretty hilarious considering what followed it.In post 160, GuiltyLion wrote:
I want to actually sit with his posts though and think through what others have said in response - please no "killing" yet lol- Alexcellent
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In post 135, kutiplz wrote:
Oh I don't even want to vote you. It's just what I thoughtIn post 119, Bambi Jay wrote:Calling it fake derp for shading purposes is not appreciated but acknowledged for when I shoot you tonight Kuti.
Kuti could you walk me through the progression here? How did your read change when you re-read the game?In post 162, kutiplz wrote:OK I'm back.
Reread the game.
Fresh minds fresh reads.
I was too harsh on my read for Phoenix. I apologize for that.
. VOTE: bambi- Alexcellent
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The problem with this is that I can apply very similar logic towards you or GL. GL can probably do the same towards you or me. I hate these kinds of discussions because they're so WIFOMy and talking about NKs usually devolves into speculation and circular logic. Part of me dislikes this post, but part of me does kind of get it because it is admittedly a weird kill and I'm on board with the paranoia.In post 181, Ph0enix wrote:I still can't comprehend what happened at the end of D1...
I'm struggling to figure out why Scum chose to kill Galron of all people. I was sure Alex wasn't surviving the night, given that he was basically universally TR-ed and he had a good D1. Furthermore, Galron was on the wagon against me, so leaving him alive would make it easier for me to get eliminated today.
Like, killing Alex just made sense from a Scum POV. Town losing what can be considered one of their leaders on D1 would be a huge blow. The question is whether the value of killing Alex was outweighed by leaving him alive and killing someone else, because anything but an Alex kill on N1 points to him, IMO. But even that doesn't necessarily add up, cause the question remains - why Galron then? Surely GL would have been a better option, though there's the argument that our discussion we started on D1 that's bound to continue today would not be able to continue today had GL been killed N1. The other scenario is GL is Scum after all - Alex being essentially "framed" would make most sense in a scenario where GL is Scum, cause then it would make sense why GL wasn't killed on N1.
Also, provided Alex was Scum, why would he choose to essentially act as a mediator between me and GL on D1? It would have been easier to just pick a side and vote against me.
Gah, I'm confused. I would love to hear the others' thoughts on this. Solely based on the NK, I think scum!GL or scum!Alex makes the most sense.
Tbh I thought you or GL would be dead given you two had the most interaction and activity - although I guess you did have votes on you, but then maybe if you're scum you killed Galron since he was on your wagon? Or if you're not scum, maybe scum killed Galron to frame you? I don't really know, that kill is weird
I actually did think I was going to die as well, if not by mafias, but by a vig kill given Bambi outright asked people to shoot me.- Alexcellent
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Wouldn't mind input here. Do we think Sara throws her partner's name in here or is this straight up a list of town people?In post 132, Sara wrote:I think Galron, Ph0enix, GL and kuti could be town
Only people alive not in this list are myself and Frog.
It's a weird post and I'm not sure which way to swing on it. But also there's not much to look at in her ISO given she only posted 3 times. She voted Frog at start of day, unvoted, and then there's the above post. That's pretty much it.- Alexcellent
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We are looking at reads from a D1 that was cut very short. I guess I can see how my stance on you and Phoenix was non-committal but I'm still not really sure between you two. I think based on content he is more likely town but yeah. I'm not very good at sorting in these situations.In post 206, GuiltyLion wrote:
hahaha yes sure would have been nice if we had more info from D1 to use today buuuut some people got those itchy hammer fingers, it is what it isIn post 179, Alexcellent wrote:
I probably should be annoyed at how D1 ended but this in retrospect is pretty hilarious considering what followed it.In post 160, GuiltyLion wrote:
I want to actually sit with his posts though and think through what others have said in response - please no "killing" yet lol
I re-evaluated over night and I think Ph0enix is town. While I don't really vibe with a lot of his thinking, I do feel the thinking itself is genuine and I don't think he's informed
if no one else counterclaims a vig shot on Sara (or Galron) that makes kuti confirmed town
I think Alexcellent is scum here and I find it townie that Frogster is thinking that as well
I'm on lunch break so I'm not ready yet to formally case it but I think Alexcellent has made a lot of safe non-committal reads and posts, I feel it's scummy how he treated the Ph0enix vs GL thing as "probably TvT but I have qualms with things GL is saying", and Bambi made a good point that Alexcellent should have known better than to push him for an OMGUS vote
The Bambi thing was a meta thing - they had the same reaction to being voted as they did in a recent scum game. I did have doubts after a while given they weren't as active and chatty as they were in that game? But I also didn't expect them to vote themselves and get hammered suddenly so I didn't really have time to fully re-assess.- Alexcellent
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Yeah so I don't know who's who. I think I need to re-read and brain things a bit.
I do dislike a lot of Frogster's play. I feel like he voted Dunn yesterday on very thin reasoning and Dunn came back with a decent meta case that he more or less ignored, brushed off Dunn as paranoid and sheeped onto Phoenix. Today's posts do feeeeeel kind of organic but I keep looking at his "is this 4v1 or 3v2?" post and thinking it's smoke and mirrors. Like literally the flips are there on that very page. It kind of feels like an act.
On content alone I think Phoenix is probs town, 70 just feels that going that extra yard that early game scum probably doesn't do. If I disregard content I can see a Phoenix/Sara team working and I can probably see reasoning for the Galron kill there. But yeah it's hard for me to say Phoenix is scum here and I think ultimately I'm just leaning town there.
Occam's Razor is telling me scum is probably just Frog. I think I'm probably less sold on GL as scum than Frog but more than Phoenix if that makes sense. I think if he came in and went right after Phoenix again then I'd be scum reading much harder there? But the fact he's come in with that post after Frogster's vote on me muddies things a bit.
Think I'm just accepting that the Kuti stuff is legit.
Yeah idk, I'm going to read back through GL and Phoenix's D1 posts- Alexcellent
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FWIW I think this is maybe why I'm still alive, funnily enough.In post 173, Bambi Jay wrote:For the record I do recommend a vigi shot on Alex for starting this for such a stupid reason. He should have known better.
I think scum could have viewed a NK on me as a potential waste given that a vig may have just done the work for them after seeing this post- Alexcellent
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I don't fully town read you I just less scum read you if that makes sense.In post 211, GuiltyLion wrote:Alex why do you think I'm town? I'm a little surprised you don't seem more suspicious of me
I think if we accept kuti/Phoenix as universal townreads then this is obviously a tight gamestate for scum with only two viable miselims remaining, so I like that you're reaffirming your Ph0enix townread in 208, but I'm a lil worried your read on me could be scum trying to avoid pissing me off or fully locking me on you
I DO think you as scum would be less likely to come in with suspicion on me today. I think given that you spent most of D1 pushing Phoenix, you would have a very straightforward win condition of just continuing that push and trying to continue to sell everyone on scum!Phoenix. The fact you came in saying Phoenix is town is townie points for you, and I think Galron kill makes less sense from you given that you had a TR on him and he was sheeping you.- Alexcellent
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This post concerns me a bit.Ph0enix wrote:So, I think we're in a state of the game where not much more information can be gained without an elimination. Most of what I mentioned in 218 still stands. The points I made about Alex are the reason I don't think I'm willing to vote Alex today.
I'm torn between voting Frogster or GL today based on what was mentioned in the same post and I'm willing to go with what Kuti thinks is the best option, cause there's an argument to be made about both scum!GL and scum!Frogster, IMO.
What about is bugs you? I echo most of what was said in the last two paragraphs of that post.Frogsterking wrote:UNVOTE: alex 232 is bad enough to make me reconsider.
I get that there's not a ton of information that we can get from D1 given the sudden hammer, but I feel like rushing an elimination here is still bad. I think a mislim here is potentially be game throwing?- Alexcellent
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Pretty sure GL is town.
Scum!GL can just keep pushing me as scum and with Frog voting me, he could have put me at E-1. The only thing stopping that is if Phoenix and Kuti both disagree and push somewhere else.
Like I do have a paranoid side saying that maybe scum!GL just thinks Frog is the easier wagon to push? But I don't think I'm a hard wagon to push either.
This, on top of it making little sense for GL to kill Galron is all +town.
But also:
GL wanting Kuti to have the power over who hammers is very much a pro-town move IMO. Like I really do not see scum making this suggestion.In post 233, GuiltyLion wrote:so after reread I'm willing to vote/eliminate Frogster but I wanna see where Ph0enix's head is at and if kuti wants to eliminate Frog then they should get to choose who hammers (in the event of supersaint)- Alexcellent
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Every time I try to analyse the Galron kill I get confused and lost in the WIFOM.
I think scum!GL killing Galron feels like suboptimal scum play because it means he killed someone he's been town reading (maybe trying to pocket?) and who was also sheeping his vote. Maybe it's the way my brain works but it would kind of be like scum getting rid of someone they could use maybe. Unless he thought town wouldn't expect him to kill Galron so he's playing 4D chess with the kills? I think I'm overthinking that though. I think scum!GL probably doesn't want to kill Galron.- Alexcellent
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Actually that probably doesn't carry much weight. GL has already shown a willingness to re-assess and change reads, which is probably another +town for him. If he's scum he probably wouldn't see it as a big issue having to pivot on his reads today. I think he's still just town?
Ughh I hate that kill and analysing it is making me doubt things- Alexcellent
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Actually I'm just sticking with Frog.
I think I'm going through some pretty circular logic to come up with reasons to scum read GL and if I'm having to squint that hard it probably means he's just town. I really don't think scum is willing to suggest a scenario where conftownie has power over the hammer.
And I'm paranoid of Phoenix because there are just little things there that I could see working. And small things like 237 in a vacuum make me pause. But like, if I compare his input from D1 to most others in the game, he appears town.
It's hard to see town in Frogster for a lot of the reasons already said.
But like this post - he isn't entirely wrong. I am fencesitty and can generally be pretty wishwashy because that's just kind of how I am, and the posts quoted are pretty much my direct thoughts on the game as it's happening. But also just cherrypicking a couple of posts out of my ISO and spinning them as scummy is disingenuous.In post 226, Frogsterking wrote:In post 68, Alexcellent wrote:So I feel pretty good about Dunnstral as town. Will probably wait to see how Frogster reacts though but yeah, those are some good call outs. Idk why scum!Frogster jumps in with that vote though unless he's scum with Bambi, but I don't reeeally like connecting those dots this early.In post 72, Alexcellent wrote:I may not have stuck to my guns on that scum read D1 and ended up paying for it since town lost, so I may have a bit of paranoia there about her play in general. But that Dunnstral vote gives me legit the same vibe I got from the last mini with Elsa/Bambi.
These posts caught my attention by showing Alex fence-sitting and being noncommittal and cagey. Like wtf is he even stating in any of these posts. These posts are a superficial illusion of sharing thoughts.In post 143, Alexcellent wrote:I've read back through the GL/Phoenix stuff a few times and yeah, I dunno. I at least think it's not a Phoenix/GL scum team. And I kinda feel that it's not a GL/Galron scum team either so that's neat. There's stuff in there that I dislike but it's probably more that I disagree with so I'm just going to roll with the idea that it's probably TvT.
His move to GL feels like it's prooobably survival motivated as well and suggests he didn't exactly have a lot of conviction in his scumread of me in the first place.
I'm just going to stick to my guns here.- Alexcellent
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I'm going to be busy-ish over the weekend so may not be around heaps. I'll try and check in and phone post though when possible. In case I'm dead before then though, here's where my head is at with the game:
Kuti is confirmed town, everyone's had more than enough time to CC there and they haven't.
GL is highly likely to be town. There's way too much pro-town content coming from him today, if he's scum then he is very good at it. There are just posts and takes coming from him that are difficult seeing scum make. He was the first to point out that Kuti is mechanically confirmed, he's also willing to give them power over the hammer. Like, these are not things scum are usually comfortable with doing.
Ceejay/Phoenix slot is probably town but is a wildcard. D1 content from Phoenix suggests that he is probably town. There are minor things about his ISO that raise an eyebrow here and there, and there probably is a world where Phoenix and Sara are the scum team. Like I could see maaaybe Phoenix didn't want to kill GL because GL started to go back on his scum read of Phoenix by end of D1, yet Galron was still voting him so maybe he'd be pro-Galron kill. But that's just speculation and it's really hard to say he's scum when he's not the scummiest player here.
Simplest answer is Frogster is probably just scum. His D1 was bad, IMO. Dunn had a fair case against him that he's only just now been addressing, his votes are pretty all over the place and opportunistic. His initial vote on Dunn was weak, his sheep on Phoenix was what it was. I feel like his argument here with GL followed bad logic - the whole expecting him to trust him over statistics is weak, although bad logic isn't inherently scummy, but 201 is off to me because it seemed like GLwaslistening and trying to have a discussion. But it reads like Frog wasn't getting the result he wanted from that interaction so he exited the conversation and moved back to me. Frog's votes also tend to move at interesting times. When GL implied he's open to a Frog elim rather than me, Frog moved to GL, no one joined him on the GL wagon and GL wasn't really budging when they talked, and it looks like he's moved back to me now that there's a fresh face (ceejay) in the game. Everything about Frog's voting pattern smells opportunistic to me.
I obviouslycan'tsay with 100% certainty that Frog is scum because I straight up don't know, but based on play, he is the scummiest one here and most likely to flip red. If it isn't Frog then I guess Ceejay. If it's GL I'll be incredibly impressed but also very strongly doubt that's the case.
I think it's going to come down to me or Frog, obvs, and I'm highly unlikely to move my vote at this point. If you do elim me, probably just shoot Frog at night time- Alexcellent
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I don't think I played very well as scum, I made a lot of mistakes and played pretty lazily. Letting Kuti become conftown was a pretty big misplay and I should have said I shot Sara, but I kind of let that moment pass and I wasn't sure how to claim it without it appearing very fake and convenient. Also Frog's assessment of my scummy play throughout D2 was on the money.
I didn't reeeeally have a long term plan here either and I was pretty much leaving everything to sort out in the night actions N2.
Ngl though, D1 and D2 both ending with a supersaint daring a townie to hammer them was pretty hilarious from my perspective.- Alexcellent
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I roleblocked and shot you last night, it was the only play I could've made I thinkIn post 304, kutiplz wrote:
I shot youIn post 302, Alexcellent wrote:Bah! Damn you GuiltyLion!!
GG though and wp everyone.
I was really banking on GL being a blank vig or a bomb or something. Assuming either you didn't shoot N1 or you shot at me I guess?
The bullet that did me in was GL's- Alexcellent
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