Micro 1010 - Neighborhood B

[GuiltyLion]

hi diddly ho neighborinos

do you all see any real value we can get out of this neighborhood? I feel like neighborhoods are most useful when they're not known to the rest of the playerbase, I don't know if there's anything I'd rather post in here than the main thread

[GuiltyLion]

I think Bingle is still the most likely scum in the trio tbh. I was waiting to see if he was gonna add any more thoughts after he emphasized that giving cross-group reads was important, but he hasn't said much beyond a townread on Dunn and a scumread on me, and he's not really pushing the scumread on me at all

[GuiltyLion]

Lukewarm, assuming you're town, you should move your vote to within our group. I frankly wouldn't mind if you even wanted to push me a little bit, I'm kinda starting to see you as potential town now and I'm curious to see if Bingle/N_M run with a scumread on me if you voiced more interest there. That said, I don't wanna pressure you to play in any kind of way, so do whatever you think is best, but could be an interesting gambit/reaction test to consider. I'm trying to think of creative ways we can use this hood

[GuiltyLion]

lol I honestly hadn't realized that until I just thought to check and was about to post in here again. I actually think that makes Lukewarm a lot more likely town as I think he probably thought he was giving an honest read without Bingle/NM likely to see it too, it definitely put me in that headspace

[GuiltyLion]

this setup would be better without mafia daytalk IMO, it makes the hood almost completely pointless unless we eliminate the scum from it. I guess scum have to be careful about not slipping that they know what was discussed in the other hood, but that doesn't seem that difficult

[GuiltyLion]

Dunnstral what's your read on Bingle

[GuiltyLion]

oh I wasn't really thinking from a balance perspective, more from a shenanigans perspective. Bussing D1 for mafia is generally bad in almost any set up, I don't see that as a significant nerf I guess

[GuiltyLion]

Lukewarm, were you aware of mafia daytalk when you were giving your reads on NM/Bingle in here?

[GuiltyLion]

Lukewarm, were you aware of mafia daytalk when you were giving your reads on NM/Bingle in here?

Yeah

Although I already put that I was leaning towards it being Not_Mafia in the main thread, but then Marci asked me in here too, so I answered again lol

feh, I guess I can't give you a locktown read quite yet then, but I appreciate your honesty!

[GuiltyLion]

Lukewarm, I was gonna post this in the main thread before threadlock, but for the record - encouraging people to vote someone

you yourself are townreading

is about the worst way to get me to trust you or think you are right,

especially

if the person you told people to vote then flips town

[GuiltyLion]

ayyy good stuff tho, sorry for that twilight fight

I'll reread through and start analyzing associatives later today

[GuiltyLion]

I had worries about the idea of Bingle/Lukewarm prior to twilight but now I think it's more likely Lukewarm is just town

my gut is either scum!Vanders with the premeditated bus or scum!Dunn, but I need to actually sit down and look at the ISOs and think on it for a bit. I kinda feel if scum!Dunn he would have tried harder to have better associatives with Bingle, so that's giving me some pause

[GuiltyLion]

I shoulda been more certain about his bad read on nEE, nEE was pretty clear town IMO

[GuiltyLion]

I still have yet to do the One True Reread, but in memory I'm pretty sure Bingle really hard committed to the Hopkirk push when Vanders was picking up votes

[GuiltyLion]

if you thought Bingle was scum, why were you voting Hopkirk?

[GuiltyLion]

I think Vanders' progression on Bingle is quite awkward

in 230 he votes marcistar, despite the fact that he claimed to believe we should eliminate in the 3p. (I still maintain that despite posting a handful of times about eliminating in the 3p, Vanderscamp did not seem to actually

care

about eliminating in the 3p, especially when most players had suggested that we shouldn't).

He then quotes Bingle posts from prior to 230, in his 231 and 233 he quotes Bingle's 212 and 219, then concludes in 235 that he thinks Bingle is scummier than N_M and that he thinks nEE is town. If that's the case, given that he thinks 3p was a better odds to hit scum and he's townreading one of the 3p, why was he voting elsewhere? I called this out in my post 236 and got a very short 238 in reply, which I didn't sense Vanders genuinely believed given that he spent more time discussing Bingle than marcistar.

Then the progression from question -> I don't like your answer -> vote (in 255, 262, 263) feels like where the decision to bus comes in. Despite scumreading and voting (!) Bingle, Vanders claims he got "nothing" out of Bingle v Hopkirk in 329 - I feel a townie who was voting Bingle as their primary SR there would have had more to say.

I also still agree with my own 469 and I don't think Vanderscamp understood my point nor addressed it in a satisfying way. My point wasn't that he wasn't aware of the pools once he posted, my point was "I was gonna say it's not S-S until I

remembered

[emphasis mine] it couldn't be" betrays a lack of critical thought or care about the pools when analyzing interactions. I haven't once forgotten who was in which pool this game, because it's centrally important to determining who scum is. Vanders post implied that he did, which I find hard to believe coming from town.

I also think Bingle's openwolf 477 may have been meant to scare us away from a Vander wagon.

[GuiltyLion]

I voted for hopkirk because I said voting inside the group of 6 was better

I meant more along the lines of why were you voting your scumread's primary scumread, but I think not understanding that is vaguely townie

[GuiltyLion]

I can just copy 101 in the main thread, I want you all thinking about it and engaging with it now

[GuiltyLion]

I'd rather scum be forced to start giving reads now before they know how confirmed town feels

[GuiltyLion]

I don't feel good about this game anymore

Lukewarm/Hopkirk what do you think of marci's reply to me? idk if scum her gives me that "pls don't be mad" type of reply, but maybe I'm a sucker for the AtE? And I don't get the flip back to being okay with me scumreading her

I'm still confident we win if marci/vanders are the other two elims (I still think it's stupid that Vanderscamp claims he doesn't need to read here and that excuses him from offering any content over the night phase or participating in this subset of dialogue with the rest of us), but idk if y'all can trust me enough and frankly I am having a real hard time feeling good about a definitive call either way with those two.

Luke, I see your argument that Bingle torpedo'd his own Hopkirk push, but I felt he did that right as Vanders was getting pressure, which to me increases Vander scum!equity, not Hop. I really don't think Bingle would have had enough control over the gamestate to avoid the possibility of us eliminating Hopkirk yesterday and I really think it's tinfoil hat thinking to be having Hop as top suspect. I'd definitely re-evaluate and not rule anything out if he lived to F3, but it just does not feel like the most likely pairing at all to me.