Large Normal 238 | Mafia Thread

[Frogsterking]

/goon
I was thinking I might open wolf

[Frogsterking]

i think it might be a good strat

[Frogsterking]

[Frogsterking]

I wonder if mizzy left the post edited with the confirmation counter at 14 out of 15 needed to start on purpose.

[Frogsterking]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... &start=425

I'm reading the link, it's a large normal with a killer in it.

[Frogsterking]

The game brought to my attention that rolling Killer might tend to make players appear to suck more relative to how they usually play

[Frogsterking]

I think killer is likely to be in the mid to bottom half of the poe relative to the table and their performance is likely to appear mediocre or inferior relative to both their completed town meta and completed scum meta.

I think a really small amount of players are able to have success with killer outside of incredible luck. I think high trait conscientious, low trait agreeableness, low trait neuroticism, and at least a dozen 15+ player forum mafia games completed are increasingly predictive of the killer's identity the farther the game progresses.

I think the ability to night kill may load on its own factor of tells which can be extracted out of pr/scum tells. What i mean by that is that there are ways to "guess the vig" that are subsumed by "guess who is pr". The tells unique to "guess the vig" and not "guess the pr" can increase our chances of guessing killer. These are also practical to know if they exist because we could be looking for a vig instead of or in addition to a killer.


*Data on replacement rate of Killer
*We know being informed of a psychologist increases chance of vig OR killer, and does the presence of one of those roles increase our chances of having the other role in the setup?
*Does presence of killer/vig predict chances of having town doctor or similar mitigative role?

[Frogsterking]

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Detection

I can probably answer all of my * questions with access to this dataset or one like it

[Frogsterking]

i was on a walk, and i thought how it would be really funny if on d2, i claimed pt cop with a guilty on baltar

it would be 99.9% be throwing, but like, funny

it would be throwing if you did it. it would be a good strategic play if :
1) skitter confirms via hood: baltar is a powerful tpr and if a doc has a soft claim or hard claim to him at all
2) vp isnt widely townread d1
3) i emulate my limited available town meta d1 and am widely townread d1

then I think our default expectation should be that i will make this play.

As everyone's teammate here I hard claim intent to make this play D2 if the conditions for it be useful are met.

[Frogsterking]

errr, that was a shitpost, none of us should be claiming a powerful role like that unless our alternative is death

even with a scum team of 5 as the lowliest goon?

[Frogsterking]

Hardclaiming intent to survive as long as possible by imitating my town meta and claim pt cop with guilty on baltar in a worst case situation.

[Frogsterking]

i am telling you that nothing good comes from fake claiming a power role like that because it basically locks in our death in the next 0-2 days, depending how smart the town is

which is like, unless our other option is instant death, is a bad thing

Yes and I didn't understand what you're saying at first. After I thought it about it I understood better and I made a new plan which doesn't involve fake claiming at all unless the only other option is instant death.

[Frogsterking]

Does anyone know for sure why there's been a delay in the start of the game?

[Frogsterking]

I made a new plan which doesn't involve fake claiming at all unless the only other option is instant death.

also you shouldn't claim pt cop with a guilty on him even then, because when you flip, you basically confirm that there is scum in the neighborhood

no idea why the game is delayed

I think there is an important reason why the game is being delayed

[Frogsterking]

I believe the most likely explanation for the delay in order from most probable to least probable:

#1 The event has been delayed because someone very important hasn't shown up yet
#2 There is something mechanically wrong with the setup which has been noticed at the last minute
#3 Mizzy is applying artistic liberty and making a last minute change to the setup; and/or has decided to deviate from their previously intended plan and is now improvising something
#4 The delay is intentional for an unknown reason

[Frogsterking]

Do you see what I'm implying in #48??

[Frogsterking]

What happens at a murder mystery dinner party when the actor playing the killer needs to be replaced at the last minute?

[Frogsterking]

notes

Spoiler:

Cape90 Mar 02, 01:30am Mar 02, 02:09am 0 days 0 hours 11
fireisredsir Mar 02, 12:27am Mar 02, 01:59am 0 days 0 hours 14
Aristeia Mar 02, 01:10am Mar 02, 01:58am 0 days 0 hours 24
humaneatingmonkey Mar 02, 01:28am Mar 02, 01:54am 0 days 0 hours 10
Frogsterking Mar 02, 12:15am Mar 02, 01:50am 0 days 0 hours 21
GeneralWu Mar 02, 12:19am Mar 02, 01:39am 0 days 0 hours 24
DeasVail Mar 02, 12:17am Mar 02, 01:35am 0 days 0 hours 18
tenebrousluminary Mar 02, 12:29am Mar 02, 01:34am 0 days 0 hours 11
skitter30 Mar 02, 12:18am Mar 02, 01:33am 0 days 0 hours 26
Yeet Mar 02, 12:13am Mar 02, 01:33am 0 days 0 hours 46
Datisi Mar 02, 12:16am Mar 02, 01:29am 0 days 0 hours 27
Mizzytastic Feb 28, 10:03am Mar 02, 12:59am 0 days 1 hour 7
Save The Dragons Mar 02, 12:21am Mar 02, 12:21am 0 days 1 hour 1
the worst Mar 01, 04:23am Mar 01, 04:23am 0 days 21 hours 1

[Frogsterking]

notes again

Spoiler:

arranged in overall post count
Yeet Mar 02, 12:13am Mar 02, 01:33am 0 days 0 hours 46
Datisi Mar 02, 12:16am Mar 02, 01:29am 0 days 0 hours 27
skitter30 Mar 02, 12:18am Mar 02, 01:33am 0 days 0 hours 26
Aristeia Mar 02, 01:10am Mar 02, 01:58am 0 days 0 hours 24
GeneralWu Mar 02, 12:19am Mar 02, 01:39am 0 days 0 hours 24
Frogsterking Mar 02, 12:15am Mar 02, 01:50am 0 days 0 hours 21
DeasVail Mar 02, 12:17am Mar 02, 01:35am 0 days 0 hours 18
fireisredsir Mar 02, 12:27am Mar 02, 01:59am 0 days 0 hours 14
Cape90 Mar 02, 01:30am Mar 02, 02:09am 0 days 0 hours 11
tenebrousluminary Mar 02, 12:29am Mar 02, 01:34am 0 days 0 hours 11
humaneatingmonkey Mar 02, 01:28am Mar 02, 01:54am 0 days 0 hours 10
Mizzytastic Feb 28, 10:03am Mar 02, 12:59am 0 days 1 hour 7
Save The Dragons Mar 02, 12:21am Mar 02, 12:21am 0 days 2 hours 1
the worst Mar 01, 04:23am Mar 01, 04:23am 0 days 22 hours 1

arranged by date of first post
Cape90 Mar 02, 01:30am Mar 02, 02:09am 0 days 0 hours 11
humaneatingmonkey Mar 02, 01:28am Mar 02, 01:54am 0 days 0 hours 10
Aristeia Mar 02, 01:10am Mar 02, 01:58am 0 days 0 hours 24
tenebrousluminary Mar 02, 12:29am Mar 02, 01:34am 0 days 0 hours 11
fireisredsir Mar 02, 12:27am Mar 02, 01:59am 0 days 0 hours 14
Save The Dragons Mar 02, 12:21am Mar 02, 12:21am 0 days 2 hours 1
GeneralWu Mar 02, 12:19am Mar 02, 01:39am 0 days 0 hours 24
skitter30 Mar 02, 12:18am Mar 02, 01:33am 0 days 0 hours 26
DeasVail Mar 02, 12:17am Mar 02, 01:35am 0 days 0 hours 18
Datisi Mar 02, 12:16am Mar 02, 01:29am 0 days 0 hours 27
Frogsterking Mar 02, 12:15am Mar 02, 01:50am 0 days 0 hours 21
Yeet Mar 02, 12:13am Mar 02, 01:33am 0 days 0 hours 46
the worst Mar 01, 04:23am Mar 01, 04:23am 0 days 22 hours 1
Mizzytastic Feb 28, 10:03am Mar 02, 12:59am 0 days 1 hour 7

[Frogsterking]

i played a game where scum!monkey was really good

so i didn't think this is scum!him shitting the game when i'm aware he knows how to play scum

but (1) that game was like 2 years ago, (2) nero gave me a counterexample (that i did not read through tbf, but i'm assuming he wouldn't lie about it) so lol

Potential Killer?

[Frogsterking]

Is there any way for me to get the post count data from like yesterday?

[Frogsterking]

I can use the data

[Frogsterking]

Nordom is <5th percentile agreeable, that's what's causing this conflict. I think the modkill is fair because VP Baltar did a good job explaining the error to Nordom in a way someone very disagreeable can understand and Nordom chose not to listen.

[Frogsterking]

why do you need it?

I can use the data

I can make a timeline which might be helpful and run different algorithms until I find one that's useful.

[Frogsterking]

also, there's only so long that people will townread you for the wacky haha push on page 1 >_>

Welcome to my life

[Frogsterking]

if we are going to leave ari in the game we should make sure townies kept alive with her can't be meta read.

pr read on fua. im going to push a wagon in that direction if I can.

i might townsend luminary and claim their wagon as a result of temperamental differences.

[Frogsterking]

Does anyone have a pr read on yeet?

[Frogsterking]

or traitor for that matter

[Frogsterking]

or traitor for that matter

i'm 99.5% sure ari is traitor

i don't think my shitty scumplay manages to fool her this hard, and the way she's been arguing in favour of me is textbook her scumplay of protecting partners

I'm not convinced sorry

[Frogsterking]

If you're claiming you have an intuition Ari is our traitor I'm willing to go 66% on it being true and higher with concrete evidence.

[Frogsterking]

Dats did you roll town again ? ? : )

extremely AntiTown

I mean we did win despite your best efforts to eliminate me/datisi so perhaps you should re-evaluate : )

These were supposed to be softs?

[Frogsterking]

upcoming plan:

entice the townies fua is pushing to vote fua.

[Frogsterking]

Dats so you think HEM is a townie with good reads this game?

[Frogsterking]

Skitter I'm going to be questioning you about the townread you outted on fire in the main thread sometime over the next couple irl days

[Frogsterking]

Does anyone think Wu might be pr or in a hood? Because I don't want to draw heat off the Wu wagon if it's going to eventually force information out.

[Frogsterking]

Good people to kill would be vpb or nero imo

yeah I'm trying to find an unpopular slot with pr tells so I can try to build a wagon on them

[Frogsterking]

I think tenebrous might be in a hood

[Frogsterking]

try to focus less on who is a power role or not and more on who it would actually make sene for you to push?

because i can push anyone and still be within my town meta here. so i want to use that to out who is pr.

[Frogsterking]

MathBlade is 1 in 4 scum called. He'd hit more scum throwing darts at a billboard with our pictures on it.

[Frogsterking]

i wonder how long until someone notices i'm arguing two contradictory things at the same time

Never lol the game thread is so chaotic

[Frogsterking]

Lol

[Frogsterking]

This fua wagon has potential to build by the way I think they are somewhat mislimable. If possible I want to force a claim from them and another townie.

[Frogsterking]

Eyes you might want to post more so a vig doesn't target you for lurking

[Frogsterking]

I just took a look in the game thread and it looks like a black hole

[Frogsterking]

Hey guys I'm still cayching up now, was my pr read on fua right?

[Frogsterking]

Okay im going to catch up and look for another pr to try and set up for a flash + wagon during the chaos here

[Frogsterking]

i don't think it's a good idea to purposefully wagon power roles

if they are confirmable, then we're left with having to look for another wagon, which might turn onto us

Do you think enough damage was done to town yet?

[Frogsterking]

My hope was to inflame a situation where town keeps flashwashwagoning prs to get them all outted, though it sounds like you would rather make a defensive play now?

[Frogsterking]

Okay I think Yeet is like not good pr. Maybe you can just push Wu? VP vs Nero could be worth inciting.

[Frogsterking]

Like Yeet is a good mislim target for me right now but if you want me to tinfoil and bait VP vs Nero I can do that

[Frogsterking]

I want to resume wagoning prs to out tomorrow.

One option i thought of is to probe fua and leave the masons alive to see if town kills one of them

[Frogsterking]

That's going to go great with this narrative I'm pushing on Yeet.
"Guys we were right the first time!!"

[Frogsterking]

I think Yeet is going to get pushed through. If Nero is being killed then maybe VP or fua can be viable future mislims.

[Frogsterking]

Hmm

[Frogsterking]

There could also still be an sk or another vig backfiring the plan of framing fua etc.

[Frogsterking]

Scorpius is >90th percentile in intellectual curiosity by the way, that's why he's bouncing these walls with me. I'm hoping it creates a distraction from Yeet's attempts to save his life.

Maybe I can get walls with luminous by probing their sub factor of openness.

[Frogsterking]

Scorpius is VT in my opinion

[Frogsterking]

Dease is my guess for pr, but it's just a guess not a read.

[Frogsterking]

Huh guess luminous is Fantasy after all:

Could you at least explain why you want to extinguish my beautiful light, Sir Knight?

It is difficult to assess the motivations of votes against me, as Mx. Oboro says I must, if no motivation is provided.

i want pressure on you mostly, it's a gut read and i want to see how you respond

Here is my response:
"
I expected more gallantry from your appearance, Sir! Must I don a princess costume to win your favor?

Other than that, you'll just have to wait and see.

"

[Frogsterking]

Wu is at e-1 finally

[Frogsterking]

Math, fua and cape weren't paying attention and just quickhammered wu for us.

Now if we perform well mechanically with the night play I think we will have an advantage.

It seems like one option which was floated with the night kill is to get rid of Nero because he's making the dayplay hard for skitter and Datisi. With the quickhammer and Math rubbing people the wrong way maybe we can get a mislim there. Same with fua.

[Frogsterking]

A second option is to focus on the nightplay and kill a pr every night.

[Frogsterking]

Nice. What are the night actions we have again?

Probe 2 shot (Dats)
Follower+Gunsmith 4 shot (Eyes)

[Frogsterking]

K so lets kill hem then? Are we worried abt protectives at all?

And i'm not >.> i somehow got into my head that eyes was a 'gunsmith finder', not a gunsmith itself, whoops

Even so i think there probably (?) is one?

Who should eyes target?

I don't think the town has a gunsmith because that would be redundant. If I understand correct the GS can't find the SK, so my role was meant to find the Vig with GS ability and the SK with the follower bit. The town has it's own follower seeker in the form of the psychologist. They probably have some other kind of investigative like a tracker or watcher to find us.

Yes, do you have any reads on these last couple of investigatives? There are a few players I believe are VT I think I outted in our scum chat, my reads there might be worth sheeping. My personal guess for one is Dease but I doubt my opinion there is worth sheeping unless you have a good read there yourself.

[Frogsterking]

Why is skitter doing the kill rather than frog?? I feel like we don't want to lose skitter too soon if for nothing else then to hide her information from the town. skitter flipping confirms her hood as all town )one could argue that another member of the main team could be in there but that's just pushing it). Also if Fua is actually the SK who decided to go 1v1 with the SK then maybe there will be no 2nd kill for N1 and the town won't know there is a SK either.

I don't think Town gets to see Skitter's Information. I believe it's best if Skitter sends in the kill but I'm willing to talk about it.

[Frogsterking]

Datisi do you have any thoughts on how D1 went and the strategic implications moving forward?

[Frogsterking]

That's cool, I'm in the same boat.

[Frogsterking]

No it's because of fua's personality. Remember they were also the one who complained about Yeet's prior username being offensive. fua is more easily addled than like 95% of the human population and is either entitled or hasn't developed skills to manage frustration.

[Frogsterking]

I reiterate my read on Yeet as some kind of named townie or similar. I read Cape as pr.

[Frogsterking]

Yeet backup vig maybe.

[Frogsterking]

Did you plan on responding to its substance, or just shading Cape for writing it?

I'll look at it in depth and with good faith when I have a moment (which is not now). That being said, I am extremely skeptical a person puts that much effort into a giant post and doesn't vote. It's a failure of being timid as scum.

How long do you think it took Cape to write that and link all those posts? Two hours? You think he just did that on the fly in response to the most I made this morning just a couple hours ago? I'd say that's very unlikely.

What is more likely is he started last night when I posted in our hood and has been honing it with his scum buddies to reply today. He wasn't expecting me to come after him, probably content to let me and Nero fight it out if Nero is town. Cape knew he was going to have to respond with an overwhelming show of effort to sway town to his side. That's fine. I'll let the record speak for itself when I quote you Cape's viewpoint on Wu yesterday. Standby.

I don't see any reason he can't have written it overnight. No one was going to nightkill him after he hammered.

It doesn't read to me like it was "honed with any scumbuddies." The middle of it is actually pretty poorly written and impossible to follow, so I doubt anyone else looked at it.

I predicted this statement from luminary! I'm learning.

[Frogsterking]

This is the most tilted I've ever seen VP, I think Nero pushed VP too hard.

[Frogsterking]

I was about to say I think we can get VP run up today if we play our cards right. VP vs Cape, VP vs Nero can and should be used today to delay the consolidation of a town core and keep skitter alive.

Malcolm vs Yeet, Dease vs Luminary, Fire vs the fua slot all can and should be used D3 because a mislim then will tinfoil whichever town block emerges on D3. Then Dats and I can become a part of the town block on D4 and we will eventually win.

[Frogsterking]

I'm imitating my town game right now actually

[Frogsterking]

Oh yeah I forgot I'm supposed to be trying to find the last TPRs

[Frogsterking]

You were right about Ari/April, Dats, they're the fucking traitor and April is a good writer.

[Frogsterking]

I guess that's April's gimmick.

I hope my VP shade bombs don't blow up in my face instead.

[Frogsterking]

I think scum can clean sweep. VP goes down, Fire Mal Lum Cape or Deas go down D3, then Dats and I can be townread D4. Biggest concern is some TPR with good reports.

[Frogsterking]

I guess something like BP/Doc/backup vig/Follower might make sense for town to have here. If we're worried about a doc type role we can wifom the kill onto Enchant since it probably looks like we're going for Math tonight.

[Frogsterking]

Yeah I'm not sure how town is going so wrong right now it's not like the players seem incompetent or inexperienced.

[Frogsterking]

I don't want to have an investigative out on D4 with like three clears that would really suck.

[Frogsterking]

That's a good call Dats take care of your classes first. Good luck with Uni and thank you for getting us into a great position with your scumplay.

[Frogsterking]

Welcome new scum team! Things are going well for us right now (at least on the surface.)

[Frogsterking]

We're pretty sure April is the traitor. We have a novisit report on Dragon, Enchant is vig or SK, Math is mason and we aren't sure who the psychologist is or how many other TPRs exist.

[Frogsterking]

We're pretty sure April is the traitor. We have a novisit report on Dragon, Enchant is vig or SK, Math is mason and we aren't sure who the psychologist is or how many other TPRs exist.

April needs to die before Math.

Why kill our traitor?

[Frogsterking]

You think he's our traitor while TRing none of us?

He's TRing me in the scummiest way possible

[Frogsterking]

Enchant may just shoot town though. Kinda up in the air. Enchant isn't clear with reads. I also just finished a scum game with Enchant where I hard pocketed the town core.

I think it's good play to alien Enchant because town might kill them D3 if we do, and if Enchant is paranoid of you and NK you or w.e it would really screw us over. I don't believe we're in a position where we need them to kill town to win the game so it's sort of "win more" to go for that AFAIK.

[Frogsterking]

Yeah we're in a pretty good spot to get townie lims the next two days and there are still two living PRs outted from D1 (Math and Enchant.) We know there is a psychologist for sure hiding somewhere and we don't know their identity or what else is out there.

[Frogsterking]

Datisi felt very strongly that the Ari slot (now April) is the traitor. I'm starting to agree with him after interacting with April.

[Frogsterking]

Okay. Maybe you or Titus?

[Frogsterking]

My bad; i guess it has to be me or you.

[Frogsterking]

Also wow, Math really got his reads straightened out, between him and VP they've called the whole team.

[Frogsterking]

Frogsterking why bus. Now you are forcing my hand

I'm trying

[Frogsterking]

Yeet, psychologist?

Does psychologist report inno the same night the nightkill is sent in?

[Frogsterking]

Invests after kills.

We may just kill yeet to frame Galron as innocent.

We can always follow Yeet first to make sure.

[Frogsterking]

Okay we got VP back to e-3. I think it's going through.

[Frogsterking]

First question to ask ourselves is how worried we are about a save on Math

[Frogsterking]

I'm fine with this as a default plan, I'm probably going to sleep on it and suggest some changes tomorrow.

[Frogsterking]

tl;dr

I request that we

please

don't go through with the night kill on yeet and simply target Math or Enchant, and if you really like the idea of killing yeet to make galron look innocent, then follow yeet first tonight to verify yeet could have a role which might make the narrative believable.

So first I'd like to say that I love the plan of killing yeet as a concept; it's very creative, and like many brilliant innovative ideas, it has a significant chance of not working at all. This is the price of being creative! We can solve problems other people can't but we can also create problems for ourselves unintentionally.

In this case I'm skeptical that 1) yeet is actually an investigative 2) town will react in a way that's fortunate for us ie galron will actually be townread because of the nightkill 3) it's a good idea to leave Math alive until N4 or N5 4) the urgency is misplaced because if you think this same plan won't work if we try it on N4 then on it's not going to work if we try it on N3 either and 5) the best argument in favor of it, avoiding a protective role targeting Math, is better applied by targeting Enchant and conserving our role block shot for the protective role later.

1) yeet is the same player who delayed the start of the game because their original name was offensive to a Chinese player so the mods forced him to change it. Yeet is a little trolly in that they're very unconcerned with what others think and feel, yeet is also whimsical and probably creative himself. I think yeet is likely to be full of shit here. Some players pointed out yeet's earlier treatment of the galron slot suggested he didn't have an inno on him. I haven't verified this yet but am planning to do so this morning.

Another example; why are we assuming yeet's soft is real and luminary's isn't? Are we accepting all soft claims as true? No, so are we selecting which claims we believe and which claims we don't based on how likely they are to be true or based on how much we wish them to be true?

2) Scum team already made the mistake of assuming over-optimistic ideas about how town will react to our kills. For example, look in the scum chat how confident we were that fua/Enchant would be scumread because of our roleblock N1, and look how pushing this narrative at the start of D2 backfired on Datisi and skitter, many town players didn't buy the narrative at all and it actually increased the suspicion on the Datisi and skitter slots. Yes, there is some lasting suspicion toward Enchant which may or may not result in a mislim. Does that mean our plan worked? Not necessarily; notice how the suspicion is increasing over time toward all players including Datisi's slot, skitter's slot and the fua/Enchant slot. Suspicion is increasing toward everyone over time without a mech clear regardless of what we do or how logical the suspicion may be. We know that even if yeet is an investigative (which I find unlikely) galron can't be mech cleared.

I think the idea that galron will be pseudo-mech cleared because of yeet's death is only true in a best case scenario, and even in this best case scenario, galron isn't necessarily going to be trusted because of it. I think accelerating suspicion toward a particular slot and eliminating suspicion toward a slot are different objectives entirely, because players are already predisposed to become more suspicious, so those ideas may work better or at least happen anyway if our own narratives are rejected.

I think the idea that we will push a narrative about scum taking yeet seriously and we can expect town to just accept this is folly, I've seen no evidence that any of us have any influence over which narratives are accepted or rejected by town, save perhaps maybe April, our likely traitor. In fact, there's already evidence of the opposite, town is likely to reject whichever narratives we push and our slots will be held accountable for pushing them.

3) Math already heavily suspects 3 or 4 players on the scum team. One of the main slots Math suspects outside of our team is yeet, the slot we're currently proposing to flip.

N3 Enchant will likely need to be killed to prevent a shot. N4 we may need to kill a different power role such as the real psychologist, or a different TPR if yeet is indeed the real psychologist. I think there is a very high chance we'll have higher priority targets than Math for the following two nights in a row, meaning we will leave town with a living mech clear who is calling for our heads for two or three more day phases. Math showed some restraint D2 which, if you skim our scum PT, we weren't expecting him to do, and this did a lot to remedy his credibility with the other townies. We can say Math will do this or that or the townies won't believe him, but again, we don't know what Math is going to do or what the townies are going to believe. We and the other townies do know Math is mech clear and hostile toward Galron, Titus and April, and after a yeet kill, will have a potential distraction between him and us removed from the game.

Now points 4) and 5) are relatively straight forward. There's no urgency to execute this plan; if yeet is indeed the psychologist with an inno on galron then this information will always be beneficial to us. If yeet is not an investigative then revealing this to be true won't necessarily make galron be viewed as innocent, for all we know it will make galron suspected more, and we will be suspected for pushing the narrative, and town will get to keep some of their TPRs who hardclaimed on D1 for far more days than necessary. If you're worried about a protective role and want to wifom the kill then preserve the role block to deal with the protective and eliminate Enchant now instead of on N3 like we'll most likely need to. If you want to leave Enchant alive for the potential of a tinfoil mislim on D3 then kill the outted mech clear now because we have other pressing needs for our night kill in the future.

I don't personally buy yeet's claim at all and suggest ignoring it entirely unless I find some convincing evidence when I review the thread. If you really like this idea of trying to frame galron as innocent, then use our follow ability on yeet tonight to verify that they actually have a chance at being some role which might make the narrative believable. I think this is a fair compromise and this isn't my first choice for our follow ability but I can get behind it. After I review the thread I'll share if I've changed my mind about or yeet or I will suggest my first choice for a follow target.

[Frogsterking]

I looked through April's iso to see if they indicated any plans they may have for D3. It looks like they intend to create a new wagon on DV or fire. I'm guessing this is with the intent to make a TvT cross between DV/fire and VP keeping us alive again regardless of who *wins*. I think killing Math is probably more helpful to this plan because Math may try to get a Alice or Galron wagon running. I think Math is viewed with far more credibility than Enchant or VP so Math leading on one of us is the main threat to our survival.

[Frogsterking]

I understand where you're coming from but yeet being an investigative is a

town lead idea

. While Math suspects the scumteam,

#1

he's largely ineffective.

The idea to shoot yeet covers if we're right and wrong.

#2

If he flips psychologist, the inno is practically confirmed.

#3

If he doesn't flip psychologist, then scum shot him thinking he was because they shot him over conftown. Thus Galron town.

We only need one to live.

#1

Regardless of how persuasive Math is, he is a mech clear who is active in the game thread pushing reads that are more correct than not. He will need to be killed eventually and can hurt us immediately depending on what he chooses to do which we can't predict. I want to take agency away from town, not give them chances to outplay us.

#2

If yeet is going to flip psychologist his report is going to help Galron regardless of when yeet is flipped. I think there is a lot of reason to suspect yeet is full of shit. We have the ability to verify this because of our scum pr. Why not investigate yeet tonight to confirm, then if he's lying he will become a suspect for town now or later. If he's real we'll know who he visited and that info can be used to set up a more convincing scum narrative with a fake claim.

#3

There is no reason to believe town will buy this narrative. Dats and skitter were suspected for pushing a scum narrative against fua/Enchant based on the night kill as well. There is no guarantee this backup plan will work. It's just as likely to backfire as it is to be successful. If yeet is VT or some shit role we will have made things easier for town instead of more difficult. We have the opportunity now to chain kill TPRs and be guaranteed to make things more difficult for town.

[Frogsterking]

Alright you know what fuck it I might have found some things on Yeet, Titus, but I warn you, I'm a prolific tinfoiler.

[Frogsterking]

In Yeet's iso 4357 and 4319 I'm spotting what are potential crumbs.

POTENTIALLY crumbs..I've "spotted" many nonexistent crumbs during my mafia career.

[Frogsterking]

Okay 2589 and 2596 are more crumbs and convince me beyond 95% yeet is actually the psychologist.

I concede my point completely, yeet is the best kill.

[Frogsterking]

I'm going to check luminary's iso to see if they crumbed being a protective earlier in the game.

[Frogsterking]

Thank you scum team for reading my posts. I'm sorry, I was in the wrong here doubting the yeet choice.

[Frogsterking]

330 potential traitor soft to Datisi from luminary provided traitor is informed of our roles and not just our alignment. Weird.

[Frogsterking]

330 potential traitor soft to Datisi from luminary provided traitor is informed of our roles and not just our alignment. Weird.

Could be coincidence. I told you I'm a tinfoiler.

@mod

Are you allowed to clarify "traitor is aware of our identities" ? Does that include our roles? Thank you for your time, mod.

[Frogsterking]

Any reason in particular to follow Nero?

Galron can you update us on what's going on in the 'hood when you get a chance?

[Frogsterking]

330 potential traitor soft to Datisi from luminary provided traitor is informed of our roles and not just our alignment. Weird.

Could be coincidence. I told you I'm a tinfoiler.

@mod

Are you allowed to clarify "traitor is aware of our identities" ? Does that include our roles? Thank you for your time, mod.

The traitor does not know your roles.

Thanks mod!

It's just a coincidence then with luminary.

Apologies. I thought I was dead. There are a few new pages in the hood I'll get a summary together.

Nah you're alive and you're about to be an outted inno report from a confirmed (dead) TPR! Psuedo-mech clear and insanely lucky.

Thanks for summarizing what happens in the hood.

[Frogsterking]

Fogster, Baltar laid out a monster post about you, STD and Nero using Math's scumslip case on me to push my miselim through. He says there are inconsistencies around your position on me over a very short period that make you the priority today. I don't know if he's posted it in thread yet, but he's going to.

Thank you for the heads up, I used the heads up to think about what I would say.

I'm not intimidated overall, I think VP lost sight of why he scumread me in the first place which he had a good reason for but he didn't explain it very well. I like that he's creating false teams.

I'm going to shade Dease today.

PEdit: Thank you

[Frogsterking]

This VC makes zero sense. Two out of the three votes on the counterwagon on scum are scum themselves when scum are winning. IT's insane.

It does arguably set up a follower claim you can walk back from later eyes.

Yeah this is a really, really unorthodox gamestate. I kind of like it though.

I'm wondering now if luminary + scorp + ? are in a hood.

[Frogsterking]

Why do you wonder that?

Probably just an overactive imagination. Luminary is cagey about their scorp town read and they both seem kind of "above" the hood. I had a thought pop into my head D1 that luminary is in a hood/has a PT.

I think we definitely kill Nero tonight. Then Enchant. Then fire.

I think so too. I'm worried Enchant is going to shoot Eyes. I don't know what can be done about it. I don't think Enchant is really susceptible to being influenced. I think talking to Enchant in a collaborative way could help Eyes to an extent but it could easily backfire.

[Frogsterking]

A miselimination and a poor vig shot gets us to 12 alive tomorrow. With Nero dead.

That's mylo. If town believes accurately there's 5 scum.

Town no eliminates.

I actually change my mind here and we shoot Math to stop the Math voting Galron play at the end. It does leave a hero vig shot open, but we can just not celebrate at the end.

I was thinking Nero > Enchant > Math

Enchant gets 1 vig shot off

[Frogsterking]

Damn Math is really going to tunnel Galron?

[Frogsterking]

Alright well I'll start ruminating on ways to influence Enchant's night target.

[Frogsterking]

Hey it looks like you changed Math's mind after all!

My best idea so far with Enchant is if multiple players tell Enchant repeatedly to shoot Eyes, maybe Enchant will be stubborn and shoot someone else. If Scorpius is provoked into elaborating why they don't think Enchant is really a vig, maybe Enchant will shoot Scorpius instead.

[Frogsterking]

This is not good guys. :/

What's not good? I just checked the thread to find the town tearing itself apart as usual. What the hell is a Cape/VP cross?

[Frogsterking]

I have a lot of traitor suspects, StD Scorpious and April

I think it's April this frog - VP thing is the worst tinfoil, they're just having fun with the town.

I'm still catching up though I don't know what actually happened since this afternoon.

[Frogsterking]

Math's being the most stubborn person insisting on eliminating town lmao. She actually won't listen to the people who are right.

Yeah it's too bad too because Math's reads are pretty good overall it's just the wrong ones Math wants to lim first.

I think my main priority is to suggest a night kill to Enchant that isn't one of us without it backfiring

[Frogsterking]

I'm feeling pretty confident it's April. Did you see them mention the traitor?

[Frogsterking]

Do we want to consider the chaos is because not everyone else is town?

[Frogsterking]

I want to consider this

[Frogsterking]

Like we were informed about psychologist and thinking there might be a third party killer, but can't there be other third parties? That would explain why it appears like town is just ripping themselves apart like this; because not all the people fighting are actually town.

[Frogsterking]

I guess it can only be town - mafia - killer? But can killer decline nightkill, or there are multiple protectives and Nero got saves?

[Frogsterking]

Okay. I'm going to bring it up in the thread probably though because they don't know there are five scum and the protectives might think they got a save

[Frogsterking]

Because Enchant rolled dice 1 on compliance

[Frogsterking]

RIP Nero

[Frogsterking]

Dunk Kid

[Frogsterking]

I'm having fun. Have you come around on April being the traitor?

[Frogsterking]

Scum food for thought:

lol@April's "solve" (VP-Frog-Enchant-Tene)

Dease' big readslist kind of looks like their town game but I don't think anyone knows that and it can be pushed as looking like their scumgame instead.

[Frogsterking]

I don't object to the hammer at all but don't feel obligated to either

[Frogsterking]

The main reason I say that is because you're the deepwolf now so if you think hammering will make you lose towncred better one of us take the fall IMO

[Frogsterking]

Can we dream that Enchant will shoot Nero? Can we dream?

[Frogsterking]

If Enchant targets Nero and we target Enchant do both Nero and Enchant die?

[Frogsterking]

I don't like that Math has been adding me to his solves (though it seems contingent on me + Cape.) I wonder if he was townreading me earlier in part because I was asking him about VCA.

I'm planning on asking Titus to do VCA on D4 before Math does so Math can verify if Titus is doing real VCA or not. I'm probably going to push Dease tomorrow too.

[Frogsterking]

Cape took it to the hood

Neither Cape nor I know what we're talking about in the hood. He hasn't responded to me.

Cape may have bailed.

This is hilarious BTW

[Frogsterking]

Sorry for my multiposting, here's my important stuff:

1) I'm either going to push Dease hard tomorrow (D4) or I'll townsend Dease and push Dragons hard as part of a Dragons + Alice team.

2) I'll demand for Titus to do VCA and Math to do counter VCA regardless of who I'm pushing.

3) I want us to figure out if Enchant stacks the kill on Nero what happens in terms of both nightplay and dayplay.

4) I unironically read luminary as backup-protective because of their comments EoD2 and because of the other roles in the setup. I unironically advocate a candidate option for us to nightkill Math anticipating an Enchant - Nero shot.

PEdit: I think it could be X-shot or gambit most likely, and slightly less likely based on not being able to kill the first two nights. I don't know which is more likely. We do have a 2-shot alien and a 4-shot follower if those provide any hints. I don't know vefy much about setup balance.

[Frogsterking]

and slightly less likely based on not being able to kill the first two nights

Their comment is based on this I mean.

[Frogsterking]

If Enchant targets Nero and we target Enchant do both Nero and Enchant die?

Unless Nero targets Enchant.

I think we always shoot Nero here though, even if it results in me dying. Can't have a doctor running around.

Okay. What about my read on luminary as backup-whatever-nero-is-protective? Do you think we can afford to kill luminary over Math again N5 or do you just want to cross that bridge when we get there?

PEdit: yeah I think that's a great observation on Dease, Eyes, I can definitely see Dease being some kind of investigative.

[Frogsterking]

"despite the mathematical numbers having greater odds to hit scum outside the hood, even given the majority assumption. He doesn't want to listen to the majority assumption of Galron town." - Titus, mainthread

I'm glad you said this because I suspect you may have convinced Math to come around on Galron. Now we can see what he says about this.

I also believe you're correct by the way about having better odds hitting outside the hood. I used to think Math has bad reads but now I think Math has good reads but they're covered up by tunnel vision.

[Frogsterking]

Shoot, yeah. Oh well, it's not like we didn't get everything we wanted this game.

[Frogsterking]

I feel town got a little screwed by the odds of one of 2 scum being fake cleared.

Yeah that's super unlucky and it wasn't even going well for town before that happened.

[Frogsterking]

I think Eyes idea of following Dease is good.

[Frogsterking]

i sent skitter out because i think it's more likely she gets investigated by the psychologist than that frogster does. you are free to change the kill into frogster doing it if you disagree.

and yeah, the information does not get revealed to town, should skitter flip.

We need to thank Datisi for this after the game

[Frogsterking]

Baltar's comment about the Romancing the Stone cast in the Billy Ocean video had me rolling.

I didn't get the reference, I liked the song though

[Frogsterking]

I requested fast night by the way

[Frogsterking]

One more day I think. Probably we can setup another TvT cross with like Cape vs Dragons/Dease. Let's power through

[Frogsterking]

Nevermind we've probably get a long way to go still. Let's pace ourselves

[Frogsterking]

I'm getting my ra ra speech ready.

"We don't need more time we need more presence."

[Frogsterking]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... start=2775

Dease 2795 in case i towncase Dease

[Frogsterking]

Does Math not scum read Enchant at all?

[Frogsterking]

"I could see maybe Cape Frogger Tene Titus if April is being bad (which is rare)

But overall Titus needs death imho" -Math mainthread

[Frogsterking]

"
I said Titus/April/VP + 1

Or Cape/Frogger/Titus/April

Or Titus/April/???

I am kinda locked Titus April just dumb to elim outside of the hood
April is locked until they push scum

April should have zero problems with BoP given team mafia.
"
Also Math gamethread

[Frogsterking]

So they both scumread Boon. We can use that

if Math keeps his current trajectory

. Not sure if that's wise though.

What was your idea?

[Frogsterking]

It would be great if Math went for Cape or Enchant (who stacks the kill on Nero instead of shooting one of us )

I'm hoping Titus can post a bunch of VCA and get Math to townread

[Frogsterking]

Idk now maybe getting luminary mislimmed is the way to go.

If I'm right they're backup protective and they claim will Mathblade change targets?

[Frogsterking]

Guys StD is the traitor, not April.

Seriously?

[Frogsterking]

K I'm getting ready to try and squeeze some big town drops out. Standby it's going to take a few hours.

[Frogsterking]

Uhh, it's N4?

[Frogsterking]

Hmm it's N4, Titus is gone, and I still have no idea what happened D4. Not a good look.

[Frogsterking]

Eyes follow luminary

Frog kills Enchant

Okay I get what Titus is putting out here. Bus dragons.

I hope my luminary-backup-protective tinfoil is just tinfoil and Enchant dies tonight.

[Frogsterking]

Why do we need to bus STD again?

Because they're a bullet proof who didn't claim hit, and now it's implied to an astute town reader because Titus' flip revealed Titus only had 2 shots to block Enchant.

Titus believes pitching this argument to town will earn town cred because town is astute and will understand the scum case.

[Frogsterking]

Why do we need to bus STD again?

Because they're a bullet proof who didn't claim hit, and now it's implied to an astute town reader because Titus' flip revealed Titus only had 2 shots to block Enchant.

Titus believes pitching this argument to town will earn town cred because town is astute and will understand the scum case.

Traitors are frequently made bulletproof by the way to help prevent them from getting randomly killed by scum and to give them something to feel better about themselves I guess.

[Frogsterking]

I agree

[Frogsterking]

Dude Enchant may have tricked us. Their antitown ways got us back.

[Frogsterking]

They just lied about shooting Dragons for no reason whatsoever

[Frogsterking]

I have a theory that if you keep posting scummy things you'll get townread eventually

[Frogsterking]

Alright that was stressful. There's my wifom.

Someone else tap in.

[Frogsterking]

Yeah we should def kill Math. Just to clarify: Dease is NOT an investigative right? I thought I saw Math ask him if he had an inno and I've been looking through Dease iso for a claim.

[Frogsterking]

Yeah we should def kill Math. Just to clarify: Dease is NOT an investigative right? I thought I saw Math ask him if he had an inno and I've been looking through Dease iso for a claim.

[Frogsterking]

I think we should just keep doing what we're doing; whatever it takes to not get killed. It's clear town is thoroughly confused.

April has fire in the pocket and can obviously manipulate people into making a wrong kill. I think we can rely on April to push us through to the finish line, and we want to try just a little bit and not make April do ALL the work.

Eyes can work the pr angle, Galron can work the mech clear angle, I'll act a little crazy and make up a scum read, April can manipulate fire and whoever else decides to listen to her. Collectively we can make the gamestate confusing enough to get one more mislim through.

[Frogsterking]

At least April is da traitor

[Frogsterking]

I guess it explains why fire seemed like they were having pretty good reads this game

[Frogsterking]

This character has to die though, fire

[Frogsterking]

I mean my first instinct is to kill fire unless he's out of shots.

[Frogsterking]

I'm leaning toward that at the moment, unfortunately

[Frogsterking]

What is fire's claim?

PT cop I think

[Frogsterking]

Traffic Analyst

[Frogsterking]

Frogster kills fire

Boop

[Frogsterking]

Is it just me or did this game get HARD in the late game

[Frogsterking]

I don't think it got harder.. it was always hard with the role distribution and all. Needless to say we also made it a bit harder by shooting Enchant

That's a good way to look at it. The game was always difficult I'm just finally realizing it.

[Frogsterking]

Hey Eyes I tapped you in.

[Frogsterking]

Galron you're next prob

[Frogsterking]

Galron got innod by a psychologist N1 and is still on the cards for groupscum I think by everyone. Dragons, April, and Dease got innod by a PT cop who flipped already so they're off the table for groupscum.

APRIL is our traitor. Our best shot to win is today by coordinating a 2-vote hammer from you and me onto Scorpius after April makes up some reason to vote them and Math and Dease put their votes down.

Dease and Math are going to tunnel either you or Scorpius while Tene and Scorpius are going to tunnel me. NO ONE trusts your slot so now is a good time for you to bring some cred and tip the scales to get Math and Dease onto Scorpius.

[Frogsterking]

Go ahead and hammer me it will make Tene look bad

[Frogsterking]

Hammer Scorpius if Dease decides to switch back

[Frogsterking]

Frog kills Math

[Frogsterking]

Do we /know/ april is the traitor?

Nope, I'd give it a 95% certainty. My second pick would be Dragons.

[Frogsterking]

You're already doing great things for the skitter/galron slot by the way.

The remaining townies all have good reads and are mainly alive because they aren't a TPR. The main issue with the remaining townies is that they don't townread each other so the town core has been effectively killed off by this point. Let's keep an eye out for a townie wagon with two votes and blitz the %!a$#% out of it.

Apparently this is a tool we can use to coordinate a blitz. https://time.is/

[Frogsterking]

Dwlee are you online? We need to quickhammer scorpius FAST before they change their mind or both our respective geese are as good as cooked. Let me look at this app thing website thing

[Frogsterking]

Yes, lim his butt!

[Frogsterking]

Dwlee you still on? I have my Scorpius vote and a couple lines for plausible deniability saved in a draft. Once I get the go-ahead from you here I'll pop that post in the main thread we'll call it a game.

[Frogsterking]

Uhh April like charisma-controlled the thread to kill like 5 town players or something ridiculous. Scorpius has been playing in their town meta all game and like afk voting me and Eyes for the last few days.

[Frogsterking]

I think there is less than a 5% chance Scorpius is the traitor. I'd say 80% April, 10% Dragons, 10% divided equally among the rest.

[Frogsterking]

Ayyy, Dwlee, I take it you think Scorp is the traitor?

[Frogsterking]

Dease, April and Dragons are confirmed not to have a PT chat which doesn't help us too much. I think April is just trying not to spook the townies, I think if she had the ability to coordinate with us she might be down for a quickhammer, at least that's how I'm interpreting her actions.