Mini 1993 - Earthbound Mafia: Giygas' Curse - GAME OVER

[Mathdino]

hey i mean if beefster is that 100% sure about marangal being town

then we can just not wagon the two of them today

and lynch him first if it comes down to it

i prefer A50 over marangal

[the worst]

Confession time
I don't get it

@Beef why does this confirm Momrangal as town?

@Math why are they likely to be opposite alignments?

[Mathdino]

So I've been going through some posts from acryon's gladiation onward:

I am even more sure that at least one lurker is scum now after these claims. It explains the weird trajectory of the day. You leave town to their own devices enough and everyone becomes shady.

Icon was widely townread because he is not a danger to scum. Ie he is scum. This is how my brain is solving this little puzzle.

Also because if acryon is indeed town then he can't be completely wrong on everything.

So Bujaber goes from this to hardpushing Icon over nothing. I basically agree with his interpretation of the gamestate at this point.

Plus, at least one scum is a lurker, that's guaranteed. Bujaber suggesting this doesn't help scum.

Wakes up

Sees a few pages

Sees a Gladiate

Is now leaving.

#badposting

Wtf is happening

#suboptimalposting

Inferno

Has no one seriously noticed yet that the mod has not confirmed that we are gladiating?

Because if the mod does not confirm that, it's very possible that acyron is making stuff up to try and get a mislynch, and the mod can't say anything without revealing scum.

#posturing

Spoiler:

Brafin:

Inferno and I have been discussing the new developments, and we have a few thoughts we'd like to share.

First: We must approach this super carefully. Neither one of us feels like this was a very town-sided move on acron's part, since both of these players are pretty generally accepted to be town by the other players. He's basically forcing the lynch to two players that would never get lynched otherwise. There's not much town motivation there, but there is plenty of scum motivation: 1) In a TvT scenario, to avoid a scum lynch day 1. 2) in a TvS scenario, to gain massive town cred and protect acryon from further votes. He's pretty effectively derailed the acryon train and it's unlikely to start again anytime soon.

Second: This must be a very well-informed lynch. We can't just all hop on, because this is a prime time to gain a lot of info about several slots. Plus scum might play differently now they are in the clear today.

From a slot perspective, we(That is, Inferno and I)'d much rather have a MD lynch today. We read him as far more scum-aligned as Iconeum, and frankly, his blocker claim is a little weak. The only way he's going to die with a blocker role at night for a while is if he happens to block the night-kill or the scum just straight-up shoot him, which is likely; why would scum leave a blocker, a confirmed PR, to screw with an investigative role that might turn up later? They wouldn't, they're just going to straight-up kill him. The only way Math can possibly live through the night is if he's scum, regardless of whether his claim is real or not. And yet he plays like he'll see sunrise, and be around to protect future PRs.

Iconeum, however, has claimed nothing and therefore has a higher chance of living through the night, because why would scum kill a VT unless they were afraid of Lylo? They won't; they'll hunt PRs instead (i.e. Kill Math)

So possibilities are:
Math is lynched and is scum == YAY! That tells us a TON about the scumteam. Acryon is probably bussing, and Beef/Math, Mast/Math or Maf/Math is probably SvS just by interaction.
Math is lynched and is bodyguard == Not great, but it does tell us, by association, a lot about town/scum lineups. Like, I'd say at this point that if Math is town, C&S, Beef, and Acryon are all definitely on my scumread list.
Ico is lynched and is scum == Meh. If Ico is scum, we literally have nothing to build off of. Most players see him as town and have interacted with him in a townie way (except TW, but I honsetly think he's town regardless). It's good because it gets scum, but it's not super helpful to town.
Ico is lynched and is town == We are now in a bit of a pickle. If Math gets the NK, he's obviously town, if not, hes obvscum for reasons stated above. So it does tell us some about town, but it's still not great.

I will point out that this only works if math doesn't get protected tonight. SO protective roles, please do so.

HOLY HELL IS THIS POSTURING
1. "WE MUST MAKE A VERY CAREFUL DECISION GUYS"
2. "WE MUST MAKE A VERY WELL INFORMED LYNCH GUYS"
3. "I want a Mathdino lynch because he's playing like he's going to live tomorrow, but if he's actually a bodyguard, he probably will die." UWOTM8
4. Okay to be fair the assumption of the existence of VTs might be a towntell here so IB is not actually my top scumread.
5. Requesting protectives to protect me works pretty well if you already know there's a strongman. Shoot through the protection.

Reminder to look for signs of people knowing my protective wouldn't work.

Inferno:

Spoiler:

@Bujaber:

Wat
The actual heck

Did you even read that post all the way thorugh? Ico is being townread by about half the town. (If I am wrong about that, speak now or forever hold your peace.) If we are hunting for scum, like you say, in what world is the town going to all agree to lynch the townread?

Let me put it this way: convince this entire town that Ico is a better lynch that MD by only using scumreads. Explain why Ico is scummy enough that half of the town townreads him.

Plus, there is also general agreement that both are probably town. (except for us, but whatever) How are we supposed to lynch scum out of two prob-town reads?

The right play is to try and get the info from today and N1 to hit scum tommorow night.

I'm going to put aside my reads today as well and give this alternate scenario: Let's not lynch at all today.
First, if scum NKs tonight, we'll (hypothetically) be at 12, which basically funtions as a N0 kill and gives town a statistically better chance of winning (I think, can someone run numbers on that?). If they decline to take the NK for the above reasons, then've we've reset and we can use today's info to nail down scum.
Plus, we avoid lyncing what is generally considered to be two town players.

Brafin says he's all down for this too, so that's where this slot is gong to move.
VOTE: No Lynch

"there is general agreement that both are probably town" therefore no lynch
IB is going with the flow here
which is basically inconsistent with their play for the first half of D1
they don't want to NOT be supporting a no lynch

OK, the following isn't actually "scum hunting", but rather an attempt to understand how you think (i.e. taking a peek into your brain).

Spoiler:

So, you intended to protect Icon, and if you flipped the town should consider lynching me??
Also, if you flipped that should prove acronym is town??
I mean, a shot on ICON proves HE is town. What does that have to do with acronym? And why would you expect scum!me to be shooting Icon in particular?

obviously this does nothing
A50 does pretty much nothing for most of the rest of the day

Spoiler:

I was going to do a full read of this, but after seeing the gladiator claim and hating D1s to begin with, I'm going to focus down on the 2 lychables for today (assuming it's a real role/action).
_____________________________________________________________

Though this is an easy choice to lynch MD over me. There's a divided playerlist over his slot, while I'm still overall townread. Lynching MD gives a much better start of D2 in any case.

I don't see how it's the easy choice to lynch MD over you. A quick ISO has me reading him town and you scummy.

Town or Scum, I can take guesses as to why you are procrastinating on claiming, but I want to hear the reason from your mouth.
_____________________________________________________________

MD: Can I get an updated and condensed list of your town/scum reads please? Would you lynch you over Icon?

This post feels like he's trying to turn me and Icon against each other.

Ah, I see I missed the confirmation of the role and action.

@MOD: If we choose to NL, will the claimed 1-shot be spent or will he be able to gladiate tomorrow (should he live through the night)? I can guess, but just to confirm and be clear.

For now though:

VOTE: NO LYNCH

Until he realises No Lynch is an option.

Also Kthx probably not scum with acryon.

What an interesting turn of events. I had scumreads on both of you...

#badposting

Okay... So apparently, I'm very prone to confirmation bias because I just looked over Mathdino as if he was town and he looks town- and mastina's case is actually a bit of a stretch (and is littered with nitpicking). I changed my mind again. Get over it.

Iconeum's play is questionable for sure, but I don't think it's super scummy.

VOTE: Iconeum

I'd rather keep Mathdino alive at this point. I think both the gladiate targets have a decent chance of being town and I'm not letting a coin flip choose who dies.

acryon's desire for self preservation makes me think he's scum.

i don't know what i think about this post and i would like some opinions please

Also note that acryon's gladiate use gives us very little information on him. It could very well be a scum role in a game like this and how MD and Icon flip gives no indication of acryon's alignment due to WIFOM.

#badposting

I don't think I would mind a nolynch.

I don't understand worsts? Notion that both slots were largely town read. Sure both slots were unlikely to get lynched today but both slots were far from being largely townread

#waffleposting

No lynch goes to a coin flip I think.

@mod: am I correct in this statement? Or is the no lynch coin flip only if we time out D1?

Beefster probably not scum with acryon

Like, realise who's been fighting all this time

And then realise who's taken a step back that hasn't really baited any suspicion

Icon and i got put in this position by being confrontational

So did acryon, who easily could've gladiators 2 town lurkers

Bujaberscum correct play is to no lynch to not draw Icon ire

Iconscum correct play is to not AtE self vote and honestly to just call for my lynch using his towncred/fakeclaim

Acryon scum correct play was to not give us a choice that would result in no lynch

Town cohesion was ripped apart the second mastina started pushing me.

Everyone else let that happen.

Suspect the people who made no effort to increase town cohesion (but also weren't the driving fucking forces in stirring up maximum chaos).

The funny thing is even mastina said that Icon and I were being largely townread, when she was largely solely responsible for me losing all my towncred.

To reiterate, the players that should be looked at tomorrow and are guilty of passively not helping town cohesion:
{Almost50, IB, Kthx, Momra, Paradox}

The players that you guys need to stop fighting because scum is just watching this town burn:
{acryon, Beefster, Bujaber, Iconeum, mastina}

A weird in-between:
{Not_Mafia, the worst}

N_M can live, his lack of tunneling me at his best opportunity was completely out of character for scum-him.
TW I'm townreading but on a very holistic big picture level, I'll admit his play has been concerning.

quoting myself for truth

i'm gonna go check people's posting around when mastina entered the game

[BuJaber]

I might be missing something obvious but why can't beef/mom be a team?

Same with Beef/mastina?

Just trying to follow your logic. Bounce ideas of one another.

Also can you answer my question why A50 over mom?

If you think both mastina and acryon are town, then you believe mastina. Therefore Mom has to be lying. She says her case is not just based on mastina denying receiving anything but her actions contradict that. She went right to voting for mastina and aggressively pushing for her lynch when mastina outright denied receiving anything.

[BuJaber]

If Beef is telling the truth he can't confirm that Mom is not scum. Not sure why he thinks he can. If mom is lying then his jailkeeping is irrelevant.

[BuJaber]

Math are you scum?

[Mathdino]

I suppose Beef/Marangal could be a team, but I feel like Beefster as a scum jailkeeper would just be honest about who he jailkept. Easier to keep up the facade.

I have not yet analysed the possibility of Beefster/mastina, but it would be hilarious if both protectives other than me are a scumteam.

I think I've justified the A50 push as much as I can articulate it. I've finished or modded like 5 or 6 games with town A50. He acts wildly different but I thought I started to get a sense of how he goes about things. I was able to catch him as town every time. This time really really really feels different.
Marangal is a more popular scumread and I'm a mafia hipster so I can't support that wagon.

I'm not following your setup spec but I think you're mistaken.
Beefster jailkeeps Marangal
Marangal tries to send a message to mastina, and fails
mastina does not receive message

great so everything is NAI

[BuJaber]

Why would she get confirmation that she successfully sent a message?

Wouldn't a jailkept target means her message fails to send?

[Mathdino]

She didn't get confirmation. She failed because of Beefster.

What are you trying to say here lol

[BuJaber]

Math are you scum?

Btw my policy still applies. If we both are alive at lylo you are auto lynch.


-pedit : hang on let me find the quote

[acryon]

Two: Even assuming you did in fact know it was possible, you would not necessarily think that possible = assured. I laid out precisely why people would be willing to mislynch Iconeum/Mathdino post-gladiate when unwilling to do so pre-gladiate and unless you can counter THAT point my argument stands. We did eventually no-lynch, sure, yes...but we did so only after I fought for it and advocated for it and gave good reasons for it. For every post you can quote of a player supporting a no-lynch, I can quote at least an equal number of posts from players stating they'd be willing to if not outright PREFERRING we lynch. And no matter how much you try to ignore those posts, the fact that they exist backs my argument up.

Ok, but your argument on this is all theoretical, especially considering the outcome. Sure, people were

interested

in a lynch over a NL for the sake of it, but we never even got very close to a real lynch. And in what world does scum choose to gladiate two players that would be difficult to get people to come to consensus on instead of ensuring a lynch by picking at least 1 player with a lot of heat?

Three: Even if you DID manage to counter that argument, it still doesn't change the fundamental fact:
No scum lynch on D1 > scum lynch D1 for a scum player.

Ok sure, but there are presumably a million ways to gladiate as scum that can produce a better outcome than just not lynching scum.

I disagree on that. The use of the gladiator seemed pretty survivalistic, at least in the short term. That isn't something that I can see from town

It was. I play this game because I want to play. If I have to choose between myself and another townie dying, I would choose them 99% of the time (exception being I somehow know they have a strong PR).

consider this post my vote for acryon. I'm not voting officially till I have a VC cuz I'm lazy and cuz math is hard and even though acryon is certainly today's lynch, there's no reason to cut off conversation for it this quickly.

If this lynch doesn't happen today, them I'm done. Barring an investigation claim, if we don't lynch this scum today, might as well just give up due to incompetence.

I'm never voting acryon

And why the hell is that? Due to incompetence?

@Carrot: totally missed that. Howdy again Mast. Also, now you read MY tag line and put me at the top of your town reads. kthxbye

How often does the "you're all idiots if you don't listen to me" strategy work out?

We need what? 6? We already have 3, with A50 its 4. Mastin will be at L-2. Still think she (they?) won't happen today?

Oh it might because this is a town moronic enough to mislynch combined with the scumfucks who are being blatantly opportunistic about hopping onto this wagon when it should be rather unambiguous exactly why the wagon is shit.

But my statement earlier today was that I wouldn't be lynched if I were scum.

I'm town, so. Is possible given acryon the scumfuck he is will all too happily vote me and then it only takes InfernoBrafin derphammering me to end the day.

Would contradict my statement that I wouldn't be lynched this game which I said D1.

But.

Yaknow.

I stated that under the belief people would actually be rational, which I suppose was in fact an unrealistic expectation from this playerlist.

Literally the only player here I trust to not mislynch me is Mathdino because in spite of how much he finds me infuriating he has half a brain to know I'm not scum with this, which is pathetic since he's the next nightkill be it by his role or scum just outright directly killing him and I could very well be lynched before he even next checks in.

How often does the "you're all idiots if you don't listen to me" strategy work out?

Oh by the way.
Captain Strong is a perfect fit for scum flavor.
It is also perfect flavor for a strongman.

During the battle, Strong's loss of temper increases his offense by 1. He can also use grapple, come out swinging, and execute submission holds, which can deal moderate to very high damage as well.

No offense meant to Gamma but it wouldn't surprise me if scum had to wing it to some extent RE: fakeclaims. To the point where some scum might just outright claim their real role.

Ok, well obviously this is incorrect though. You were already teetering, but now you've launched yourself full-fledged into wild speculation territory. Do I have to explain to you how

flavor

is NAI?

Anyone cc Apple Kid? The existence of Orange Kid implies Apple Kid, so I guess that confirms C&S as town unless we get a CC.

How does this confirm him as town?

Also, C&S may or may not be scum, but we aren't lynching them before we lynch acryon. Notice he's letting all this other shit play out and remaining silent yeah?

I can't prove that's what he's doing as he hasn't posted anywhere else since the end of D1, but my gut tells me it's so.

Well your gut is wrong. I don't play on the weekends. It's been in my sig since I joined years ago.

Yup. You're a Jailkeeper.

VOTE: Carrot and Stick

I am

Ness's Mom

, the real Jailkeeper and cooker of Steak. GTFO.

This is almost definite town. Beefster now firmly in my townreads.

Mastina - Strong as fuck townread right now
Beef - strongish townread
MD - nothing changed since Day 1. Townread

Kthx, TW - townlean
NM - scumlean


Acryon - scum

Mom, A50 - strongish scumread

I notice your reads are more or less exactly C&S's. Is it possible you're being roped in because the slot is townreading you?

Kthxbye's posts have been bad. MD has been weird so far today, but likely town. I guess I don't understand where people are getting the "this is scum A50" from. Haven't played with the slot enough, but not giving much of a further explanation isn't helpful in helping anyone understand that gutread. I feel a little better about Mom than I did yesterday, and a little worse about C&S. In truth I'm still a ways from feeling C&S is scum because I know a chunk of the feeling pushing me there is likely personal bias. Inferno has taken a step back in the game, which has moved them closer to null for me, but I'm not considering it a heavy ding. BuJaber is about where he was.

VOTE: Kthxbye

[BuJaber]

I am a messenger and I can send messages to up to three people. Last night I sent a message to Mastina stating that I was town.

Mod confirmed target and that the message was Ok.

[BuJaber]

Fuck it I'll ask the only person I truly can trust.

@mod - if a messenger sends a message to someone that was jailkept, would said messenger be told by you that the message was delivered?

[Mathdino]

Math are you scum?

Btw my policy still applies. If we both are alive at lylo you are auto lynch.

-pedit : hang on let me find the quote

Why are you threatening me here?

I've already agreed with you on this, lol.

Scum won't kill anyone in the lynchpool, and I'm exclusively protecting high value targets outside of the lynchpool. Scum will be forced to kill me sooner or later.

@acryon: Man, you quoted and responded to none of my posts, but you're just calling me weird for... the A50 read?

I don't want to just make up an explanation here. It's just... there's a way A50 fails to participate in the game as town, and there's a way he does it as scum.

[BuJaber]

Okay MD have you noticed anything about beef this game?

[Mathdino]

I mean I'm still working on that. I'm having trouble getting a read on 763 in particular; keep flopping between scumreading and townreading it. Hence asking about it.

Assuming I'm town, what do you think of that post?

[BuJaber]

Yes good quote. One that represents how beef has played this entire game.

Honestly I know I just said it a page or so ago but I forgot why I townread him. He has been fence sitty about everyone and everything. Do you sense that too or just me?

[acryon]

@acryon: Man, you quoted and responded to none of my posts, but you're just calling me weird for... the A50 read?

I don't want to just make up an explanation here. It's just... there's a way A50 fails to participate in the game as town, and there's a way he does it as scum.

I quotes and responded to things I specifically wanted to address, and then made general comments on things that couldn't be nailed down to a specific post.

I guess it doesn't feel like you to have a read so heavily focused on meta? And meta reads rarely help anyone else understand. It also feels in general like you're taking sort of a backseat and letting C&S drive the game, which has already proven to be quite bad for town.

[InfernoBrafin]

Inferno:

You know what's still bothering me? That no one has come up with a good solution to C&S's claim that they had a gunsmith-like guilty on MD, but it was D1 with no N0, and it obviously wasn't incriminating enough to push at a gladiator lynch, but incriminating enough to choke the entire thread with walls.

This seems very much out of the ballpark, but maybe I just missed something in the skim. Would someone like to clarify?

[Mathdino]

@Bujaber: I sense that for sure but that's also literally Beefster's playstyle. I've seen him do that in multiple games.
There's gotta be something that differentiates his town flopping and his scum flopping. I may look into that.

@acryon: I've played with A50 more than I've played with anyone else in this game besides Not_Mafia.
And I'm completely ignoring mastina's posts. I don't really give a shit about her Marangal push. I would be okay with a Marangal lynch today, but I don't think it's optimal.

[Mathdino]

Inferno:

You know what's still bothering me? That no one has come up with a good solution to C&S's claim that they had a gunsmith-like guilty on MD, but it was D1 with no N0, and it obviously wasn't incriminating enough to push at a gladiator lynch, but incriminating enough to choke the entire thread with walls.

This seems very much out of the ballpark, but maybe I just missed something in the skim. Would someone like to clarify?

My original interpretation through the day was that mastina was either using a metaphor or noticed I was softclaiming protective.

I COULD go through mastina's ISO and find that out for you... but I could also just not.

Help me jumpstart the A50 wagon?

[Mathdino]

Inferno: RUDE! I'm just approaching the game objectively! Skipping RVS like this and calling half of a hydra scummy is really dumb.
VOTE: BuJaber

Arguably dumb but how is it scummy?

Look the fact of the matter is, if I can sell people on the townbloc and the don't-lynch-pool, then we're definitely lynching in
{Not_Mafia, IB, Kthx, Marangal, A50}

Then I just need to sell people on either
A. A50's slot has throughout the entire game appeared to be doing things without actually doing things.
B. I can successfully gutread A50.
C. A50 is just scummier than the other 4.

[acryon]

@acryon: I've played with A50 more than I've played with anyone else in this game besides Not_Mafia.
And I'm completely ignoring mastina's posts. I don't really give a shit about her Marangal push. I would be okay with a Marangal lynch today, but I don't think it's optimal.

Ok that's fair then to the first part, although it's hard for me to give much credit to a meta-read.

To the 2nd part, how confident are you in C&S being town? Does town!Mastina derail the town this much?

[Mathdino]

Not confident. She's the scummiest person that I would be unwilling to lynch today (although I think I'd actually be unwilling to lynch Not_Mafia, so maybe 2nd scummiest).

And hoooooly shit yes she does.

Help me figure out where your mind's at. Reads? Where do our lynchpools intersect?

[InfernoBrafin]

Brafin:

While I've just caught up, I'm still not following anything that's happened. I'd appreciate it if the thread could slow down just a tad so I could re-skim this.
That being said, here's what I have observed:

Acryon/Beef/Bu is not an unlikely scumteam. Beef has soft defended both of them, and they seem to share a common goal and scum-mentality.
Pretty confident that Math is just really bad town at this point.
TW is starting to ping me, he could be scum thats PR hunting.
C&S is s=town, acryon is scum. get over it, N_M.
I will say taht I've seen N_M's play before, and this is EXACTLY how he plays as scum. So barring BU from the scumteam, which is also a possibility (I'm still on the fence from day 1) We have Acryon/Beef/N_M.
Beef may be telling the truth, but if he is, he's still scum in my book. I believe it would not be unheard of to see a x-shot roleblocker with a true roleblocker (i.e. jailkeeper), and it wouldn't surprise me to see it as a scum role.
Mom may also be scum. I agree that sending town messages that she is town is super suspect. But that only works in a world where Beef is a town jail keeper.

My scumteam is as follows: Acryon/(Beef/Mom)/(Bujaber/N_M)

Math, may I remind you who it was who moved for the No Lynch? If we were actually scum we would have moved for lynching you, not asked if there was a way for town to avoid a mislynch.