Mini 1993 - Earthbound Mafia: Giygas' Curse - GAME OVER

[the worst]

To summarise.

Kthxbye is claiming a Watcher result of NO RESULT on A50 who has claimed a non targeting ability. He immediately assumes this means A50 is scum who used the factional kill ability.

According to normal use and thread discussion I'm only seeing 3 possible situations which lead to the NO RESULT outcome:

1. The check was impacted by another ability.
2. At moderator discretion, because the target did not target anyone (which has been confirmed)
3. We are projecting possibly because the target used a faction ability and not their own ability

Normal use dictates a ninja mafia nightkill would return "you saw nothing"


Take away actual reads for a moment. Surely the correct response to this result is to wait for Gamma to confirm whether 2 & 3 would generate this result.

Am I going crazy here?? There's way too much unknown to follow this result blindly.

The only situation where Kthxbye's assumption that A50 is nightkilling scum is correct is if the third situation is true. His assumption is a massive stretch.

If A50 is scum here this is a dream come true because fuck trying to sort A50.

If A50 is town you're driving us into a mislynch and seem totally disinterested in what the mod has to say to clarify. As someone else mentioned a while ago this leaves you JUST enough deniability to avoid being instantly lynched tomorrow.

Gamma's response will probably clarify why you got this result, which in turn will probably confirm A50's alignment. Stop pushing this as an actual guilty without Gamma's response.



Can someone smart please tell me if I'm missing something here?

[Almost50]

Also, chew on this. If this was town v town, A50 would habe been lynched already

Not if they planned on getting you lynched next. IF that was the plan they had to make it look like a hard lynch and split themselves between the two wagons so that it wouldn't look too obvious when they push you tomorrow (how would they push you if they agreed with everything you said?)

[Carrot and Stick]

You know what's still bothering me? That no one has come up with a good solution to C&S's claim that they had a gunsmith-like guilty on MD, but it was D1 with no N0, and it obviously wasn't incriminating enough to push at a gladiator lynch, but incriminating enough to choke the entire thread with walls. This seems very much out of the ballpark, but maybe I just missed something in the skim. Would someone like to clarify?

Yes, you did in fact miss something by skimming.

Spoiler: Explanation

you claimed a gunsmith guilty on me before i ever claimed my role

To the contrary! I did not

claim

a 'gunsmith guilty' on you before you claimed your role.

I claimed it after.

I

stated

the gunsmith thing a grand total of once before then, which was indeed before your claim. It served a particular purpose which was loosely but only indirectly related. I had good reason for that but given I've no interest in fullclaiming I shouldn't go into detail. My softing for my role is such that you'll probably understand exactly what I was doing/going for when I flip/fullclaim but before then will remain confused as to what the fuck I actually am. Given that I am firmly of the opinion that the ambiguity doesn't hurt the town and yet helps the town by not helping the scum, I'd prefer to keep it that way.

I elaborate on this further when I actually go through on the claim--

I stated that my mention of gunsmith had a meaning. (By NRG standards, a JOAT with a cop power, which a rolecop qualifies as, would show as having a gun; in contrast, a JOAT with a doctor power, in spite of a normal doctor having no gun, does not make someone appear as having none. I was also referencing roles, in that I was hinting that I could look at Mathdino's ROLE. Because. Yaknow. That's what a rolecop does.)

Otherwise, her saying she had a gunsmith guilty on Dino makes no sense

My rolecop is a night action; I said this on D1; there was no N0 and I was a replacement into this game anyway. It was meant as a breadcrumb/softclaim, yes, but not in that way.

To reiterate: I have not used my rolecop. I was breadcrumbing I HAD a rolecop. To put it another way--

My original interpretation through the day was that mastina was either using a metaphor or noticed I was softclaiming protective.

It's not column A or column B, but moreso part of both. It'd be a lie to say I rather explicitly thought Mathdino was a protective, but I did have some sense of Mathdino (think akin to me knowing Iconeum was a backup to my role, it's not something which I put much stock into but is something that was kinda...

there

), such that I did use something akin to a metaphor, in regards to my action. I breadcrumbed/softclaimed the existence of my role as a way to indicate more or less my general feeling there, if that makes sense.

[Carrot and Stick]

Does town!Mastina derail the town this much?

It's one of my strongest towntells. It's also something which is often not a bad thing because sometimes the town needs to be derailed if it's on the tracks to a town loss. (I'd say it's about 55/45 on useful/detrimental--something which

does

help SLIGHTLY more often than not, but not by much; it hurts the town almost as often as it helps the town.)

Look the fact of the matter is, if I can sell people on the townbloc and the don't-lynch-pool, then we're definitely lynching in
{Not_Mafia, IB, Kthx, Marangal, A50}

Then I just need to sell people on either
A. A50's slot has throughout the entire game appeared to be doing things without actually doing things.
B. I can successfully gutread A50.
C. A50 is just scummier than the other 4.

I mean the only thing in there which I don't have is that you have InfernoBrafin in there when they don't deserve to be and have acryon out when he very much deserves to be in. (kthx doesn't quite deserve to be lumped in with the lot, but I'm not as adamant about that, so I'll let you have it.)

[Carrot and Stick]

The whole point is that A50 hasn't pinged you. Town-A50 pings the fuck out of SOMEONE in every game he's in, and I'm usually the one to locktown him. He's a scummy guy. But here he's just kind of sitting back.

Yes, and which alignment do you think this makes the person stating that Almost50 hasn't pinged them?

Problem is I could say that for a lot of the people in this game. Doesn't feel to me like he's sitting back any more than some others.

One, name names; this statement is useless without stating exactly who you are lumping him in with.
Two: the fact other players do it does not diminish the scumminess of having done it in the first place.
Three: ESPECIALLY given that other players in the list might always be that way (and thus, meta supports them having played that way), whereas with Almost50, his meta is that he DOESN'T play that way (and thus, it is incredibly suspicious that he is).

[Carrot and Stick]

Mastina is calling me scum. She is explaining why, but she won't lynch me. She won't even vote me even though I challenged her twice.

I only have one vote.
I have four scumspects (one of which must be wrong).

This is self-evident.

If I'm scum then it shouldn't matter which of her reads she votes and pushes to a lynch

Yes, precisely--with you as scum it doesn't matter which of my scumreads I push and vote to a lynch, and acryon is another.

So what makes my vote not being on you noteworthy when if it was on you, you could make this very same argument except substituting acryon's name in? (That being, "mastina is calling acryon scum, and explaining why, but won't lynch him, or vote him. If he was scum, it shouldn't matter which of her reads she votes and pushes to a lynch". What stops you from making that argument if my vote was on you? ...Yeah, my fucking point exactly. Nothing.)

OKay those reads are disastrous carrot/kthnxbye/IB

(Kthnx/IB/carrot&sticks)
Calling that out as the scum team now

For the record.

This makes me pretty sure that Momrangal and Not_Mafia aren't actually scum together.
So I'm pretty sure the scumteam is EITHER:
Almost50/acryon/Momrangal, OR:
Almost50/acryon/Not_Mafia.

I actually lean towards the latter, because I have ever so slightest a correction to make.
There is in fact one interaction which I will not be disclosing at this time that does in fact make Momrangal less likely to be scum with one of Almost50/acryon (which one, I will not state at this time, as it'd help narrow down what that specific interaction is and thus let scum potentially muddy the waters).

I'll share said interaction if/when need be, but right now I don't think it's pertinent information. Stating it exists and what the consequences of it existing are should be sufficient enough for the time being.

So yes.

I'd lynch Almost50/acryon/Not_Mafia right now. I'd lynch Momrangal push come to shove, but she'd be the player I'd least want to lynch out of those four. By a rather significant margin.

[Carrot and Stick]

okay guys no one has A50 in their lynchpools yet no one is actually outright townreading him or explaining a townread
it's just "meh a50 hasn't pinged me at all"

Which is because he's scum and scum don't want to bus him.

people are too okay with too many people being lynched

What say you to the people who fit this criteria?

and kthx/IB scumteam is laughable

Yes indeed--so which alignment do you think has a greater motive to push the ridiculous idea? (Especially given how 'easy' those reads are?)

Furthermore, it should be notable to you.

Mathdino:

Both kthx and InfernoBrafin are inside of your lynch pool.
Did it occur to you that the players naming them as scumspects could in fact be buddying/parroting/sheeping/etc. you?

[Carrot and Stick]

Hey Almost50. Did you do anything last night with w/e role you have? I don't want specifics, just curious. I'd ask the same of NM, but he's just a douche disrupter and doesn't answer questions thrown at him anyway.

Without any specifics, I did.

Bull fucking shit. Barring someone doing something to me last night to prevent my night action, this is a lie. Or its the truth and he did the scum NK.

Hey so like.
You know how kthx was not in my top tier town?

He is now.

There is no world where kthx makes this claim as scum.

None.

There can be worlds where kthx as town mistakenly claims a false guilty on town, theoretically speaking that is.
But since Almost50 is a scumfuck, I'd be more inclined to believe:
EITHER: we live in a world where kthx as town has a false guilty on scum...
OR: we live in a world where kthx as town has an actual guilty on scum.

Either way, the answer is obvious.
VOTE: Almost50.

[Carrot and Stick]

Ok call me thick, but what is happening here? Why is A50 scum?

This is a scumbuddy who is trying to worm their way out of letting their scumbuddy die.

[Carrot and Stick]

acryon stop rolefishing and join the scum wagon

Most of the games I've played in have had very few roles, and none have been close to this. No chance I am flipping from my strongest scumread to voting a townread based on a claim I don't understand at all.

This excuse doesn't hold water.

A game being heavier in PRs is not a justification for not voting a role fucking guilty.

And a role fucking guilty is cause for...

...Oh yeah!

Read evaluation.

The town response to having your scumread claim a guilty on a townread isn't to try and justify continuing to vote the scumread.

The town response to having your scumread claim a guilty on a townread is to reevaluate--what better chance to check out the players listing reasons to scumread Almost50? What better chance to take another look at Almost50's posts and see if they are scum? What better chance to check out kthx's posts to see if his play matches his claim? (It does.) What better chance to recheck kthx's play and see if it makes sense coming from town?

But he doesn't do these things because he isn't approaching this from the perspective of town.

He's approaching this from the perspective of "ohhhhhhhhhhhhh shit" scum.

[Carrot and Stick]

Hmmmm.... would have thought a scum acryon would bus immediately....

No, because bussing fucks the scum over here. There's just too many associatives which condemn the team. Almost50 flipping scum, for instance, clears BuJaber among many others and also clears kthx who can then use his role to further fuck the scum over especially given so many protectives are still alive. (I'm alive, Mathdino is alive, and while his jailkeep would roleblock kthx, Beefster is alive, too.)

Almost50 is also the scum's star player--can you think of any other players this game aside from me and Mathdino (because we're both town) that qualify? Well, Momrangal's possible but see also she's not necessarily actually scum this game. Nobody else fits the bill. acryon can't carry the scumteam ESPECIALLY not given the heavy suspicion he's under; if Not_Mafia is the third scumfuck, well that is self-explanatory as to why scum can't place their hopes on him.

Scum won't bus because they

can't

bus. If they bus, they lose, and they fucking KNOW they lose by bussing.

So they'll fight, and try to get out of the scum lynch by any means necessary.

[Carrot and Stick]

How common is a lynched role in role madness games?

If you meant lyncher, this game is explicitly groupscum vs. town, no third parties, no multiball. Players are either town or scum. Scum PRESUMABLY number three, no more no less. For all intents and purposes, this is as close to confirmed 10:3 as we can get without it being confirmed 10:3.

Scum me is almost never lost or indecisive, because I already know whom to push and I would always find a way/reason to push them too.

Funny, this sounds like the perfect description for your play this game!

Unfortunately, Not_Mafia is also scum here
He doesn't bus usually

Indeed he is, but one scum at a time. He's common ground so we can get him D3 and after that by that point acryon should be hopelessly exposed for D4 so.

I have zero reason to believe that Kthxbye is not still scum.

You would if town.

kthxbye, if scum, has entered into a 1v1 WILLINGLY, where if Almost50 were town...
...Then kthxbye, as scum, would be condemning himself to be auto-lynched.

As a consequence, kthxbye never pulls this stunt as scum.

This is not advanced scumhunting logic; this is scumhunting 101. Basics of the game. You don't lynch the cop claiming the guilty; you lynch the fucking guilty first. The game's WELL outside of lylo. When a guilty is claimed outside of lylo, the person claiming the guilty is not scum, LEAST of all because of how little they gain from it and how much they lose from it. What does kthxbye, as scum, gain from lynching Almost50?
Lynching a player who was already in players' radars for being scum, a second night to nightkill a player, and that's it.
What does kthxbye, as scum, lose from lynching Almost50? His life, and any chance of lynching a player who we were potentially mislynching today (e.g. myself, potentially Momrangal if she's town).

Risk-reward analysis. He loses a lot; he doesn't gain much of anything.

This is not some advanced theory only elite scumhunters use.
This is literally Road to Rome level of basics. A fucking newbie knows this shit.

So a town-acryon would, too.

[Carrot and Stick]

I'm going to be floored if everyone on the Kthx wagon is town here.

They're not; Almost50/acryon/Not_Mafia are all scum.

[Almost50]

Almost50 is also the scum's star player

Thanks, I suppose. Still not scum in THIS game, I'm afraid.

Psst.. hey Mastina, assuming you're not scum yourself, does it not make you even reconsider how I'm being actually SR'd by half the player list?

I mean, Dino has a point.. I do feel scummy to most players who play me for the very first time, but then apart from Kthxbye & BuJ (both SRing me) I don't think anyone else is playing their first game with me.

Also, did Assemble sign up for this game to get credit at the end or something?? I haven't seen him doing ANYTHING, and it gives me the willies that you and ONLY YOU are posting from what is supposed to be a "training hydra" (I assume he's hydra'ing with you to learn something).

[Carrot and Stick]

Add mastina to the list since she claimed to have a roleblock. Don't remember that she said she used it so let's see what she says about kthx.

I've been rather explicit about my night action.

I will not state for obvious reasons whether last night I holstered or used the doc (scum are best left in the dark/guessing on that front), but I did not use either the roleblock or rolecop.

Edit: Yeah there's no way Kthx was roleblocked. Jailkeeper claim and roleblocker claim.

Indeed.

If we seriously no lynch when both lynch options were mislynches and then lynch A50 here scum might as well surrender now and save everyone time

For the fact, yes.

Ok wait a second. Stack the Deck does show a similar playstyle to this game. But so does Winter Wonderland, where N_M was

town

, and you were also in that one. So are you pretending to not remember it?

Mathdino, are you still going to insist acryon is town when he defends both your (correct) scumreads on Almost50 and Not_Mafia at every turn?

[Gamma Emerald]

VC here

[Carrot and Stick]

Pretend for a second I have super town cred

lol

'lol' is, has been, and always will, not be an acceptable substitute to a valid line of reasoning.

kthx's question was in fact a valid one. If he were an innocent child level of town claiming the result he did, would Almost50 still be town?

[Not_Mafia]

If my grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle

[Carrot and Stick]

Well, I DID take an action, and I'm not disclosing it still.

Difference between town and scum, illustrated.
kthx, when asked to and under pressure from the 1v1, claims.
Almost50, when asked to and under pressure from the 1v1, refuses.

Which has a greater scum motive?
Which has a greater town motive?

[Carrot and Stick]

Guys this isn't hard. If we have an investigative claim out of the blue a guilty on a random universal nullread (or a difficult to sort slot), YOU DON'T FUCKING LYNCH THE INVESTIGATIVE. WHAT THE HELL. You lynch the guilty ALWAYS, and then lynch the investigative if wrong. How often do you seriously see scum fake guilties?

#logic.

Mathdino is, 100%, absolutely correct here.

Quite seriously.
This is Road to fucking Rome level of basic fundamentals of the game.
You can play in any Newbie game, and the Newbies will know this and follow it.

NEWBIES know how to do this shit.
Because it's that fucking basic.
It's fundamental logic.

Go look at theory debates in MD. Or rather, theory talk, because there's not so much a debate because everyone fucking agrees on what the right play is. (Hint: lynching the person claiming the guilty? Not it.) Debate requires there to be a divisive opinion and this is literally fucking universal.
Go look at any past game featuring a cop guilty. You don't fucking lynch the cop claim; you lynch the fucking guilty the cop got.

It REALLY isn't that hard to grasp.

[Carrot and Stick]

I like how Math is just ignoring that kthnxbye is refusing to explain why he thought no result mean A50 made the NK and just dismissing everyone telling no result doesn't mean what he says it meant

I like how you continuously pretend kthx didn't explain his viewpoint when he did and his viewpoint has no contradiction in perspective and is internally consistent with his stated stances.

[Carrot and Stick]

Exactly...Unless he can follow multiple a night (is this even a thing?), it sounds like he was hedging and waiting to see which of us answered yes first to pounce on.

This is a fine thought!

...Except...

If you look back, I asked EVERYONE to say if they did an action lady night for that reason

...If you check, this is in fact the case! kthx asked

everyone

if they took an action last night.

Not just acryon.
Not just Almost50.
Everyone.

And MULTIPLE people had said 'yes' before.

[Almost50]

If he were an innocent child level of town claiming the result he did, would Almost50 still be town?

Yes. *Firm Nod*

OK, I have changed my mind about fully claiming, because you boobs have fucking ruined the plan and I will never get shot with up to 5 players calling for my head.

I AM A FUCKING COMMUTER.

I was shocked when TGP crumbed Hider and had intended to push him today, but seeing as he dies and actually flipped Hider I had to think deeper.

Hider is a weak investigative role. Commuter doesn't yield any info. With a BG, a JK and a 1-shot Doctor (assuming all claims to be true) I'm assuming the Mafia have too much "firepower" and little in terms of informative powers.

We also have a 1-shot RC coupled with a Follower (again, hypothetically assuming all claims to be correct) and no real Cop.

The most suspicious claim to me is Mastina's, because it makes sense that the Scum team gets RC than it does to a town with a Hider AND a Commuter. Also, while it's not impossible to have a JK AND a Roleblocker I find it a bit less likely, so that RV shot could also be attributed to scum instead.

As for protectives, BG+JK+1-shot Doc?? I can hardly see it, which is why I said "assuming all claims to be true".

The plan was to lay low and appear like I'm have something important to hide so as to lure scum into shooting at me, and miss of course. This is also why I said I didn't want to be protected no matter how hard you TR'd me. It would have been a waste of the ability. I didn't mind Mastina RC'ing me though because I sill think she's Scum, so I didn't care to tell her not to. If she's Town she'd have put 2 and 2 together though, so it was all good.

Right now I'm truly lost and don't know who is scum. Everybody have points in their favour and points against them. I'm mostly going by guts.

@Kthxbye: So you friggin' see I wasn't lying when I said I DID act last night, and it was IMPOSSIBLE for you to have a "Didn't Act" result on me, but rather "No Result"???

[Carrot and Stick]

i'm actually really impressed at how difficult A50 is to lynch
given that he makes himself such an universally attractive lynch option when he's town lol

That's the difference between town and scum, yes.

If No Result is only from being blocked, I take the entire accusation back and we are back to square one

Not exactly. We gain three facts.
1: kthxbye is town. I mean, you're town anyway, but we still gain this even if No Result is from being blocked.
2: Either Beefster and Momrangal both lied (Beefster blocking kthx, Momrangal not having sent a message), OR there is some other blocking power in the game. (This actually isn't impossible, btw, I'll tell you why when caught up, basically mod was rather confused when I said scum couldn't have a roleblocker so asked me how I knew they couldn't have one and I explained it was because I was one, the mod's answer to my logic is why this isn't impossible.)
3: Regardless of which of the above is the case (it'd be far more likely the latter than the former for what it's worth), Almost50 would still be scum.
The way scum have reacted to this would make me think "caught for the wrong reasons": KNOWING they are scum, and KNOWING the 'guilty' isn't actually accurate, but being frustrated that because of the guilty scum are getting lynched anyway.

So not back to square one. We still fucking lynch Almost50. Him not having a guilty on him doesn't change his alignment; he's still scum regardless of whether he's scum guiltied or scum false-guiltied.

[Gamma Emerald]

Votecount 2.1

(4) Almost50: Mathdino, Kthxbye, BuJaber, Carrot and Stick
(4) Kthxbye: Beefster, acryon, Momrangal, Not_Mafia

(3) Not voting: Almost50, the worst, InfernoBrafin

(expired on 2018-03-18 14:15:00)
With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch