VARSOON VARIETY HOUR : GAME SCRAPPED

[OnTheMark]

Because a pool of 3 players that contains 2 town and 1 scum and a random pool of 3 players are not comparable.

~B

I mean why is Random more likely to be scum then town in this hypothetical situation if Mastina and I are town?
Random always has a 25% of being scum regardless of anyone elses alignment in the hood.

~B

A> You said it’s four not three here.
B> The four players in the hood all got their role PMs before pregame and had to confirm.
C> Monty Hall if you won’t read it I won’t go around in circles I will just assume you are the scum and trying to get me to spam.

[Maid Cafe]

Bee doesn't want to argue stats with you math so I'm tagging in
what's up
~Maki

[Maid Cafe]

For anyone who wants to know yes I've read the thread I've just gave my comments to bee and haven't been posting
~Maki

[OnTheMark]

What’s up is you need to put the fourth member of the hood. It’s pretty straightforward.

[Dunnstral]

For anyone who wants to know yes I've read the thread I've just gave my comments to bee and haven't been posting
~Maki

Why haven't you been posting?

[Maid Cafe]

FINALLY Maki gets to post, and I'm feeling better about that slot already.

babe I'm always here if you need me ask bee and he'll page me
~Maki

[Maid Cafe]

What’s up is you need to put the fourth member of the hood. It’s pretty straightforward.

But monte hall problem doesn't work in the way you brought it up.
Why do we need a 4th? I'm obv bias cause I've heard bees argument whats yours
~Maki

[Maid Cafe]

For anyone who wants to know yes I've read the thread I've just gave my comments to bee and haven't been posting
~Maki

Why haven't you been posting?

I didn't know I needed a reason?
~Maki

[Gamma Emerald]

Dunn has only interacted with Maki...

[Maid Cafe]

I know I feel special
~Maki

[OnTheMark]

What’s up is you need to put the fourth member of the hood. It’s pretty straightforward.

But monte hall problem doesn't work in the way you brought it up.
Why do we need a 4th? I'm obv bias cause I've heard bees argument whats yours
~Maki

Because Bee said there was a fourth member when he said 25% scum.

This means that Bee took the argument that there is a scum in the hood at face value and refuses to put the fourth member.

Yes it does. There are 13 goats and 4 cars.
There are four doors, one for each member of the hood. Contestant picks one.
Then the host eliminates two doors and says they are a goat.

The answer is always choose the remaining door for greatest odds of finding a car.

https://en.m.wikibooks.org/wiki/Introdu ... Or_No_Deal

Similar concept on deal or no deal means you always switch cases if the biggest prize is still around.

It’s counterintuitive but it is true.

[Gamma Emerald]

also chara is scum caught in a gambit
skybird is lynch bait and ico possibly is as well but i'm not sure yet

OK wow this is horrible, this feels calculated

[Maid Cafe]

Because Bee said there was a fourth member when he said 25% scum.

that is the % chance someone rolled scum that isn't yourself
Also the problem with the monte hall argument is you know a car is behind a door in the monte hall problem here we don't Car=scum in hood

[Maid Cafe]

~Maki

[Maid Cafe]

we don't know if a scum is in the hood or not could there be? Of course but we have no reason to believe so atm you can say mod meta etc but that leads to wifom arguments
~Maki

[Maid Cafe]

Anything else? you know I love working with you cause you were one of the only reasons I logged into Civ mafia (Yes I am buddying)
~Maki

[OnTheMark]

Are you arguing it’s an all town hood? It’s already demonstrated has less than a 21% chance of likelihood.

So it’s literally roughly 80% chance one of us is scum unless you’re seriously arguing that a four person

masonry

exists when Varsoon is on record explicitly saying he freaking hates innocents and that all roles were built before alignments.

And we know there is a scum in the game. That’s why I said best odds is to swap not a guarantee that there is a scum.

All said and done assuming two town in the hood the odds of the remaining two being town are damn near ridiculous. It is

possible

but considering how much is stacked against it you’re looking at just being a stick in the mud.

[Maid Cafe]

% doesn't work in this case because the set up was made by someone it's not like "oh here are 4 neighbor slots let me rand ali to see who gets one" if it was yes % would be something you could talk on but here you can't because varsoon made the set up.~Maki

[Dunnstral]

Your math is wrong and even if we lynch inside the hood we don't have better odds than outside of it

[Gamma Emerald]

Are you arguing it’s an all town hood? It’s already demonstrated has less than a 21% chance of likelihood.

So it’s literally roughly 80% chance one of us is scum unless you’re seriously arguing that a four person

masonry

exists when Varsoon is on record explicitly saying he freaking hates innocents and that all roles were built before alignments.

And we know there is a scum in the game. That’s why I said best odds is to swap not a guarantee that there is a scum.

All said and done assuming two town in the hood the odds of the remaining two being town are damn near ridiculous. It is

possible

but considering how much is stacked against it you’re looking at just being a stick in the mud.

Okay this argument is seriously bad
Like Varsoon did roles before alignments, but unless you wanna argue that Varsoon deliberately making someone scum for a not-all-town hood isn't non-randomness in alignment generation, your gonna have to realize what you're proposing is bastard modding.

[OnTheMark]

That’s it I am just done.

You want to keep pretending you are right go ahead.

I will not spam the thread. Continue arguing your bullshit.

I will lynch mastina or Maid Cafe today your guys choice.

[OnTheMark]

Are you arguing it’s an all town hood? It’s already demonstrated has less than a 21% chance of likelihood.

So it’s literally roughly 80% chance one of us is scum unless you’re seriously arguing that a four person

masonry

exists when Varsoon is on record explicitly saying he freaking hates innocents and that all roles were built before alignments.

And we know there is a scum in the game. That’s why I said best odds is to swap not a guarantee that there is a scum.

All said and done assuming two town in the hood the odds of the remaining two being town are damn near ridiculous. It is

possible

but considering how much is stacked against it you’re looking at just being a stick in the mud.

Okay this argument is seriously bad
Like Varsoon did roles before alignments, but unless you wanna argue that Varsoon deliberately making someone scum for a not-all-town hood isn't non-randomness in alignment generation, your gonna have to realize what you're proposing is bastard modding.

It’s actually the other way around.

Beeboy/Maki are assuming an all town hood.

I am assuming randomly assigned roles.

[Gamma Emerald]

oh no did shiro roll scum?

pedit: im officially reading the "scum caught in a gambit" mentality as baku positioning themselves to be able to vote chara if the gamestate changes it's mind

Yeah I'm actually thinking B&M is scum man

[OnTheMark]

Oh yeah or random.

Forgot Random was in the hood.

Until they put the fourth or we get a scum we never lynch outside it.

[Maid Cafe]

Are you arguing it’s an all town hood? It’s already demonstrated has less than a 21% chance of likelihood.

So it’s literally roughly 80% chance one of us is scum unless you’re seriously arguing that a four person

masonry

exists when Varsoon is on record explicitly saying he freaking hates innocents and that all roles were built before alignments.

And we know there is a scum in the game. That’s why I said best odds is to swap not a guarantee that there is a scum.

All said and done assuming two town in the hood the odds of the remaining two being town are damn near ridiculous. It is

possible

but considering how much is stacked against it you’re looking at just being a stick in the mud.

Okay this argument is seriously bad
Like Varsoon did roles before alignments, but unless you wanna argue that Varsoon deliberately making someone scum for a not-all-town hood isn't non-randomness in alignment generation, your gonna have to realize what you're proposing is bastard modding.

It’s actually the other way around.

Beeboy/Maki are assuming an all town hood.

I am assuming randomly assigned roles.

I'm not assuming an all town hood I'm saying using % to say scum is in it is incorrect
~Maki