VARSOON VARIETY HOUR : GAME SCRAPPED

[OnTheMark]

VOTE: Unvote

Not what I am asking. @Maid Cafe

Do you agree roles alignment came after roles?

[OnTheMark]

How do you believe Varsoon made the roles?

It's...his game? It's magic game plus a upick he had to make the roles
~Maki
Pedit: I think he did Color>Ali>Roles

Finally, Flavor has no bearing on alignment. All alignments were generated AFTER roles were created.

From the opening. Your suggestion is impossible. Alignment is AFTER roles.

oh shit
~Maki

I guess by that oh shit you have stuff to consider and discuss with your hoodmates?

[Bronya Zaychik]

VOTE: Unvote

Not what I am asking. @Maid Cafe

Do you agree roles alignment came after roles?

Mark just stop please.

Stop flaming town, you're making this game unbearable. Think we're idiots but keep it to yourself.

Why did you unvote?

[Maid Cafe]

That still makes the point of he built the set up not that he made it so a scum random'd onto neighbor
Pedit: Yes I do agree

[Maid Cafe]

I wish for a hug.

*HUG*

[OnTheMark]

Because I am

finally

getting somewhere with Maki and I want Maki to follow the conclusion and then hopefully break this open so we can generate a discussion built upon a mutual foundation upon which everyone is working towards a common goal.

In that we can establish a “most likely” scenario and force scum to make suboptimal plays. Since people want this to be a mechanics thing let’s not throw away what seems to be Mastina’s mistake in outing the hood and make lemonade.

[OnTheMark]

Premise: All roles were randomly assigned.
Assumption: there are four scum.
Assumption: All players equally likely to be scum.
Assumption: Then each player has a 4/17 odds of being scum or a 13/17 odds of being town. (I know I am town but for sake of argument)

[OnTheMark]

So far so good Maki?

[Maid Cafe]

So roles were made
then random'd
wth an = chance to be scum

We agree on this ye?
~Maki
Pedit: Mhm mhm

[Purple Heart]

I'm going to bleach my eyes if this neighborhood and game mechanics discussion continues for another 5 pages.

Literally, most of this neighborhood conversation borders on semantics. We can talk all dayphase about how there MIGHT be scum within the neighborhood, but all of that talk is meaningless unless we:

A)

Push others for wagons.

B)

Communicate with each other OUTSIDE of statistics and game mechanics

C)

Actually lynch so we can have factual flips to help base reads and discussion points.

Will scum likely be within a 4-person subset out of 17 players?

Possibly.

What else can someone deduce from this conversation at this moment, and be 100% certain of themselves?

To my understanding, there's multiple players at the moment that aren't fully getting caught up with the game; myself included in part, because I'm still reading conversations where I create gut-reads at best because I don't see the purpose of them.

Oh yeah or random.

Forgot Random was in the hood.

Until they put the fourth or we get a scum we never lynch outside it.

1)

Link the post where

Random (Baku and Munna?)

was confirmed to be in this hood.

2)

Link the post where you stated your initial case on

Skybird

and save me 30 minutes of ISOing you, please.

also chara is scum caught in a gambit
skybird is lynch bait and ico possibly is as well but i'm not sure yet

OK wow this is horrible, this feels calculated

Wolfy

I second this notion.

Gamma

, I believe you replaced into the

Tibor

slot; please tell me this is not the only type of posts and thoughts you have after 80 pages of game.

What are your reads, and where is your vote if you think

baku and munna

is worth a wagon?

VOTE: Shining Dreamers

Sorry Yume if you're town but today needs to end.

~Titus

I'm going to ISO

Bronya

and

Skybird

; but my initial reaction to this post was joy. Something happened.

VOTE: Unvote

Not what I am asking. @Maid Cafe

Do you agree roles alignment came after roles?

This post has no point here. Unless I read terribly wrong,

Varsoon

already stated that roles happened prior to alignment.

What's with the unvote?

Shining Dreamers

hasn't posted much since your vote post 1862

~~~

I want a post from

Mastina

, and I'd like to see

Micc

here too.

Where is

Creature

? What is

Venmar

doing?

Is

Cerb

even a hydra anymore? Why has he yet to have voted, despite having over 200 posts in this game?

I should not be the only person who has these questions.

~ Taly

[OnTheMark]

Okay then any two players have a 13/17 * 12/16 odds of both being town before the first post.
Then any three players have a 13/17 *12/16 *11/15 odds
Any four players have a 13/17 * 12/16 * 11/15 * 10/14 odds of all being town yes?

[Maid Cafe]

mhm

[OnTheMark]

Okay then any two players have a 13/17 * 12/16 odds of both being town before the first post.
Then any three players have a 13/17 *12/16 *11/15 odds
Any four players have a 13/17 * 12/16 * 11/15 * 10/14 odds of all being town yes?

So 13/17*12/16*11/15*10/14 is right around 30 percent random chance the hood is all town. Before taking in the problem of assuming two players are town.

Now the most likely answer is one of the players in your hood is scum?

[Purple Heart]

Bee doesn't want to argue stats with you math so I'm tagging in
what's up
~Maki

Wait you have the patience for this?

I deal with you don't I?
~Maki

thats cold

--

Mark just stop please.

Stop flaming town, you're making this game unbearable. Think we're idiots but keep it to yourself.

Why did you unvote?

THANK YOU

[Maid Cafe]

Okay then any two players have a 13/17 * 12/16 odds of both being town before the first post.
Then any three players have a 13/17 *12/16 *11/15 odds
Any four players have a 13/17 * 12/16 * 11/15 * 10/14 odds of all being town yes?

So 13/17*12/16*11/15*10/14 is right around 30 percent random chance the hood is all town. Before taking in the problem of assuming two players are town.

Now the most likely answer is one of the players in your hood is scum?

okay now we find the issue at hand

the problem is we don't know for sure if there is a scum neighbor role to begin with it is possible but not 100%

[Purple Heart]

I want a post from Mastina, and I'd like to see Micc here too.

Where is Creature? What is Venmar doing?

Is Cerb even a hydra anymore? Why has he yet to have voted, despite having over 200 posts in this game?

I should not be the only person who has these questions.

Hey buddy I got some bad news for ya

[Reasonably Rational]

@Taly: I only vote when I'm 1) sure someone is scum, 2) am running a test to see what happens when a counterwagon equals the original wagon, or vice versa, or 3) to ensure a lynch occurs on the last day of the phase. And yes, I still am and am always a hydra, just had trouble finding a time when Drixx was available to talk.

What OTM is saying about the statistical likelihood that scum is in this hood is correct, and I'm disappointed that they have to walk you all through it like this.

I would also like to know where it was explicitly stated that certain people were in this hood. I thought there were hypotheticals, not known members.

-Cerb

[OnTheMark]

And what if I said that when the mana event occurred I was explicitly mod told that a TOWN neighborizer role existed and is colorless. That is literally my entire mana for the entire day. I cannot generate or receive mana any further from this post.

[Maid Cafe]

If the hood was like "Oh this person gets to be in a hood" and the hood was dif from roles then yes your argument works but if the neighbor part is part of the role it doesn't.
Get what I mean
~Maki

[Purple Heart]

Hey Claire, since you're around
what's your opinion on mastina?

[OnTheMark]

Now will you fucking tell the goddamn VT who the fourth member of your goddamn hood is so this isn’t a waste?

[Purple Heart]

Also while we're at it

Bee doesn't want to argue stats with you math so I'm tagging in
what's up
~Maki

You are litterally levels upon levels upon levels upon levels of towniness, perhaps those above innocent child towniness.
Good job.

[Maid Cafe]

Hey Claire, since you're around
what's your opinion on mastina?

scumlean but not good enough that I'd feel confident lynching her.
~Maki

[Reasonably Rational]

Also@Taly: mastinas schedule generally has has posting late in the evening, like 10 p.m. PST or later, so you probably won't see her for a good while.

@Titus; we should not end the day until SS has used his lie detect, and I've done what I want to do as well.

Absolutely no rush, nobody is getting discouraged from playing at this point, so why are you trying to rush to end the day?
-Cerb

[OnTheMark]

And what if I said that when the mana event occurred I was explicitly mod told that a TOWN neighborizer role existed and is colorless. That is literally my entire mana for the entire day. I cannot generate or receive mana any further this day from this post.

Pedit