Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[skitter30]

I just couldn't resist. It's so tempting to argue with you ;P

Instead of getting into another 1v1 with her can you just give a tldr case addressed to everyone else?

477 and 479 are super townie posts tbh. I don't want to lynch scioness today. I'm now interested in sorting oxy cuz I'm not really liking the townbloc thing or the buddying me thing or the shading-scioness-and-calling-her-scum-without-substantiating-it thing or the pushing-a-lynch-on-a-lurker-instead-of-trying-to-convince-your-townreads-of-your-scumread thing.

485 - I also kinda think telling people not to townread you for those posts is kinda townie?

-------------

I find it somewhat odd that this is being misunderstood multiple times. I thought Oxy was fairly clear. (Whether or not you think that town needs a polarizing leader type)

I'm still not really sure if I understand that tbh.

I feel like it is anti-town to post something that a) could plausibly affect the day 1 lynch and b) nobody understands, and then come back to the thread and just post something weird instead of explaining even though everyone is asking for an explanation. This is the kind of thing that wastes time and as mentioned already, wasting time does seem like a viable strategy for scum at the moment. Like it's not just lurking (and I've been null-reading Drixx all game).

It's anti-town but I don't think anti-town == scummy.

I feel like you're missing something but I'm not sure how to say it

Also, how would you propose to determine the day 1 lynch? Who do you think is scummy?

Idk, I don't really know what you think I'm missing so if you figure it out lmk and we can talk about it.

I think that the day 1 lynch should be on individual scumminess - not on lurking and not on associatives. It should just be on someone you think is scummy.

Reads:

{}
{scioness, ofrzh}
{pin}
{drixx, eth0s, nsg} -- null
{ruru}
{oxy} - I'm not entirely sure where to put him and I'm feeling very conflicted atm cuz some of his posts seem very genine and townie in isolation, but I don't like the drixx wagon thing or its aftermath, and I feel like he's pocketing and buddying people and being LAMSIT. I kinda want to hear his reaction to the scioness thing and where he goes next after saying scioness is town above.
{}

---------------

Overconfidence is a townie treat, because scum can't be overconfident in their reads. Why? Well, because scum knows who is town and who is scum, of course. That's not overconfidence in their reads, that's knowing for sure that their reads are good or bad. And simulating to be overconfident is really really hard, or at least keep playing like that during the entire game.

I actually kinda think the opposite, that it's easy for scum to be overconfidant cuz they already have all the answers. Like they can seem overconfidant pushing something because they know what they're pushing. Like I think it's harder for scum to fake indecision than overconfidance. I don't particularly think this is a towntell.

--------------

Oxy RIGHT NOW is the best timing for doing it, since skitter stopped voting Drixx and started to have suspicions on Oxy's motivations. So you building a case on Oxy now is well-timed and a great scum strategy.

She went to oxy before I voted drixx - ie before the drixx thing happened.

--------------

tl;dr Skitter30 is playing a very townie game. If Skitter30 is scum, I expect her to basically scum claim by Lylo.

skitter30: I know the reasoning here has been explained previously, but I'd also like to know if you personally agree with said reasoning.

I read 'scumclaim' in that context as 'not keeping up this posting style throughout the game since at some point scum!me would likely have to drop it to pursue a scum agenda', and yeah I agree with that. I have a lot of trouble of posting like this as scum and I tend to lurk a lot; I panic-lurk under pressure. (tbf I haven't rolled scum since like august so I'd like to imagine I'd be better at that now.) But yeah I can't really maintain this posting style over long periods of time, and I have a lot of trouble maintaining arguments that make sense in a holistic sense if I don't believe in them, so yeah I think that's a pretty fair assessment. If it looks like I'm lurking or like I'm avoiding conflict I'm probably scum tbh. (not posting while I'm v/la doesn't count; I go offline sometimes for religious reasons and I don't post during those times at all and it isn't AI.)

Imo I'm kinda out of my scumrange out this point (although I wasn't imo when oxy wrote up his reason for townleaning me; I don't really think I could fake my reaction to the drixx thing), but yeah don't take my word for it.

---------------

Also I really think he's got pin pocketed.

Could you explain? I feel I've given my own reads and content with enough explanation, and pocketing implies that he's scum, right? Because if I follow his lead and he's town, it would be sheeping and not pocketing, right? Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm having trouble with translation

Pocketing doesn't inherently mean scum; sometimes town can pocket too, but yeah atm I kinda think he's scum who's pocketed you - he's trying to make you want to join his townbloc, and to make you want to do what he wants.

I'll comment on your scioness case in a bit.

[pinturicchio]

Overconfidence is a townie treat, because scum can't be overconfident in their reads. Why? Well, because scum knows who is town and who is scum, of course. That's not overconfidence in their reads, that's knowing for sure that their reads are good or bad. And simulating to be overconfident is really really hard, or at least keep playing like that during the entire game.

I actually kinda think the opposite, that it's easy for scum to be overconfidant cuz they already have all the answers. Like they can seem overconfidant pushing something because they know what they're pushing. Like I think it's harder for scum to fake indecision than overconfidance. I don't particularly think this is a towntell.

--------------

Oxy RIGHT NOW is the best timing for doing it, since skitter stopped voting Drixx and started to have suspicions on Oxy's motivations. So you building a case on Oxy now is well-timed and a great scum strategy.

She went to oxy before I voted drixx - ie before the drixx thing happened.

Also I really think he's got pin pocketed.

Could you explain? I feel I've given my own reads and content with enough explanation, and pocketing implies that he's scum, right? Because if I follow his lead and he's town, it would be sheeping and not pocketing, right? Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm having trouble with translation

Pocketing doesn't inherently mean scum; sometimes town can pocket too, but yeah atm I kinda think he's scum who's pocketed you - he's trying to make you want to join his townbloc, and to make you want to do what he wants.

I'll comment on your scioness case in a bit.

Quote n°1: maybe I wasn't clear enough, but think about a scum being overconfident pushing a wagon knowing that he is lynching a town. Also, overconfidence: to feel you're right, which is different to knowing you are right/wrong. Scum will know they're right when townreading someone, but also know they're wrong when scumreading someone. But I get your point, of course.

Quote n°2: read my post on context: she was saying that there was no reason to go back to Oxy, and I said that the timing for going back was perfect, because she voted Oxy long time ago, but you recently started to suspect him and it's a good time to explain her read.

Quote n°3: well, it makes a lot of sense if Oxy was scum, so got it, thank you for explaining! But what would be the difference between pocketing and sheeping? It's like a "who came first, the chicken or the egg" situation? As in "Oxy persuaded me to follow him" instead of me following him not because he's asking but because I think his reads are good?

[ruru]

I find it somewhat odd that this is being misunderstood multiple times. I thought Oxy was fairly clear. (Whether or not you think that town needs a polarizing leader type)

I'm still not really sure if I understand that tbh.

If Drixx is scum, and if all of Oxy's townbloc are town, and if all of Oxy's townbloc believe Drixx is town, then Drixx will be in a position to promote scummy agenda.

I feel like it is anti-town to post something that a) could plausibly affect the day 1 lynch and b) nobody understands, and then come back to the thread and just post something weird instead of explaining even though everyone is asking for an explanation. This is the kind of thing that wastes time and as mentioned already, wasting time does seem like a viable strategy for scum at the moment. Like it's not just lurking (and I've been null-reading Drixx all game).

It's anti-town but I don't think anti-town == scummy.

I'm having a really hard time with "lurking isn't scummy" + "posting in an anti-town manner isn't scummy".

[ofrhz]

Basically I was cool with my vote as a pressure vote but I don't want it to lead to a hammer before drixx posts because I don't have a read on him (and I feel ike imposing a 24-hour deadline could lead to that happening if he doesn't post in that timeframe) so I left the wagon.

I think ruru and Oxy both thought there was no chance in hell anyone would hammer that wagon. People here are comfortable with different levels of pressure on people. Some are not even comfortable with L-2. Others are okay with L-1. Also the 24-hour deadline is only a deadline if someone actually follows through and hammered.

fuck. i guess I'm wrong on Sajj, then. I don't see caught scum getting this worked up over getting caught, and only a sociopath would write 477 and 479 as an aTe attempt. I don't think Sajj is a sociopath. Add it to 107 and, well, rip. Sorry, guys.

What about her post didn't scream appeal to emotion?

477 and 479 are super townie posts tbh. I don't want to lynch scioness today. I'm now interested in sorting oxy cuz I'm not really liking the townbloc thing or the buddying me thing or the shading-scioness-and-calling-her-scum-without-substantiating-it thing or the pushing-a-lynch-on-a-lurker-instead-of-trying-to-convince-your-townreads-of-your-scumread thing.

485 - I also kinda think telling people not to townread you for those posts is kinda townie?

In the 1851 Mafia PT, she has planned on different occasions to throw fits for show. 477 or 479 are NAI. She shouldn't be taken out of the lynchpool based on these posts alone.

I'm still not really sure if I understand that tbh.

I don't know if this helps, but I read it as: It can be exciting to see town come together (hence, "beautiful town circle"). Conversely, dysfunctional town is frustrating.

Also 316 proves that he is able to analyze a game on deeper level. So why his first case on me was so weak? Weak to the point I had to explain to him why most of it is too weak to push a case.

I agree with this

Sorry but my vote is parked on Oxy. I don't want to make it about me, but I need this solved because the tunnel is affecting me. I have made my case and he can make his and you can judge from there. Or it can wait till d2, but I'm pretty sure that if I'm alive it will be the same story.

I really don't like the "either or" here. Do you still feel like either you or Oxy should be the D1 lynch now that Oxy no longer thinks you're conf scum?

I'm townleaning ruru as of 483

@Oxy- who are your top scumreads?

[Oxy]

First I'd like to apologize to Scioness Sajj. I tunneled on you and I took the fun out of the game for you as a result. I had no right to do that, and I'm immensely sorry.

Novel incoming. Game pretty much solved.

Spoiler:

This is how I see the game:
I had a lot of alarm bells ring in my head about Sajj. When I was writing my many different reasons for suspecting her, I knew I wasn't explaining what I was seeing very well. I figured that was partly why I wasn't getting traction with my town reads. I thought Scioness was being scummy enough, and that my cases were at getting you three thinking in the "right" direction enough that eventually you would come around.

When you, Skitter30, would explain why you disagreed, it was reasonable. I felt that the body of scummy behavior outweighed the explanations for individual acts of scummy behavior that you presented (e.g, english being her second language excusing misrepresentations), but I respected your method for weighing evidence and I wasn't going to argue that your pov was 100% wrong, because in each instance you weren't necessarily wrong. It turns out your explanations were reasonable because they were right.

When I continued to bring up that Scioness was being scummy, but without the case walls, it was exactly as you said, Skitter. I was trying to keep the idea at the front of your minds, and prompt you to reread her posts in the critical manner that I had. It turns out, I was also simply harassing someone in their first game as town.

So when she voted me with reads that makes sense in the first place, but were clearly picked directly from the posts of others, it seemed obvious to me that this was one of the only plays available to her as scum. I'm talking, of course, of the Ofrhz/Oxy theory. It also turns out to be exactly how new town would react. Here she is, being pushed on hard by the most active player, who is being town read first by most, and then by all, of the active players. Of course she is going to latch onto the only theory in the game for scum!oxy. I would.

And then I call her a good bullshitter. See, I think scum!Sajj actually takes that as a compliment. Bullshitting is a huge part of being scum. But from town!Sajj's position, I'm just coming in hot right after her many of her posts and saying it's shit. No wonder she's upset and feeling resentful.

And the crux of it all - those two posts. She knows how I feel about ruining someone's fun. She knows I'm going to feel awful if she accuses me of it. She's not going to do that just to win a game.
I'm very sorry, Sajj.

Gamestate

Spoiler:

This game is auto. Lynch eth0s, pin, NSG, and Drixx in that order and we win the game. My bet in 2 lynches, Almost certainly in three lynches, and certainly by 4 lynches. I'll be following the votes of my town reads within those 4. Okay I said certainly but there's probably a <10% chance that Skitter30 is scum, and <5% chance of either ruru ofrhz is scum and <<1% chance that both scum are within those 3.

Drixx could be scum, but I'm starting to doubt it upon reflection. I don't think he lies in a newbie game about his meta of being as active as he can be regardless of alignment. If it's not his meta, it's too easily refuted. If it is his meta, he's not throwing it away on a newbie game. So the lurking is actually NAI in his case.

So then what's with the posts? I have to believe that a man of 10 years forum mafia experience can come up with a less clearly anti-town post than that. Like, come on.

They're reaction tests, obviously. What's the most post efficient way to collect reads? What would you do to proactively collect reads if you can only post once every other day? It would take a week to have a simple conversation. A reaction test, on the other hand, is like a trap you lay and come back to.

[Oxy]

So when she voted me with reads that makes sense in the first place

ebwop this should read "so when she voted me with reads that didn't make sense*

[Oxy]

I'll be playing a much quieter game after that screw up. Ask me a direct question if you want my input. I think my post answers most things asked of me in the past few pages. If there is something else you want addressed, please repeat the question.

[ruru]

This game is auto. Lynch eth0s, pin, NSG, and Drixx in that order and we win the game. My bet in 2 lynches, Almost certainly in three lynches, and certainly by 4 lynches. I'll be following the votes of my town reads within those 4. Okay I said certainly but there's probably a <10% chance that Skitter30 is scum, and <5% chance of either ruru ofrhz is scum and <<1% chance that both scum are within those 3.

Drixx could be scum, but I'm starting to doubt it upon reflection. I don't think he lies in a newbie game about his meta of being as active as he can be regardless of alignment. If it's not his meta, it's too easily refuted. If it is his meta, he's not throwing it away on a newbie game. So the lurking is actually NAI in his case.

I'm not a huge fan of this plan.

1. Why do you want to lynch NSG and Drixx unconditionally if you're not scumreading them and they haven't even really started talking?
3. I'm unconvinced that anyone is conftown on day 1 and this plan basically relies on people being conftown.
3. If one of your reasons for TRing skitter is that given her current playstyle she will be obvscum later by having to push poor lynches, but we already decided on those lynches, then I don't think the original logic applies.
Suppose scum is eth0s+skitter or pin+skitter and skitter busses her partner and then just gets to lylo automatically by following the plan (first 2 days would be 3 town + 1 scum dead, then day 3 2 more town die, then day 4 it's 3-way lylo unless PRs save us). And 3-way lylo seems like a big diceroll to me, especially if scum hasn't had to do anything scummy all game. I mean I guess it's 2/3rds win in theory but even that's assuming there are three 100% conftown.

So then what's with the posts? I have to believe that a man of 10 years forum mafia experience can come up with a less clearly anti-town post than that. Like, come on.

They're reaction tests, obviously. What's the most post efficient way to collect reads? What would you do to proactively collect reads if you can only post once every other day? It would take a week to have a simple conversation. A reaction test, on the other hand, is like a trap you lay and come back to.

I see what you're getting at here, especially if 254 was followed up by a post that clears things up. I still don't like 372.

[Oxy]

1) Ah, no. I just gave my pov of the game. My plan is to follow you, ofrhz, and skitter to a win.
3) That's true. Don't just stop playing and lynch off my list. Clearly, I am not omniscient.

[eth0s]

It was a random vote with the added benefit that *if* he is lurking and not just AFK, that it might get him to talk. That purpose has already been somewhat derailed but now we have new information anyway.

ofrhz's "I don’t think lurking is a scum tell" is by far the scummiest thing I've seen so far.

Alright, thanks for the answers!
UNVOTE: ruru

why do you go from asking someone why they aren't participating in rvs to not placing a vote on anyone?

@Scioness Sajj Any reads yet?

why are you asking for reads so early on?

Ah. I misunderstood your question.
Ruru Read

Spoiler:

Initial vote on 5 seemed scummy initially because (in my mind) it implied that eth0s had been logged in AFTER the game began and had been lurking. This wasn't the case as I pointed out in 8.

In reality, Ruru had checked other members of the game, found the person who had been active most recently, and chose them. This is super town motivated because it increases the chances that Ruru has to actually engage with the person they vote on.

It also turns out to be exactly the mindset that I took last night while waiting for the game to begin. I made the following image to accompany a vote on Callitwhatyouwant, referencing the difference in our name lengths:



And then I looked at everyone's last time online, realized how long it had been since they had logged in, and decided to switch RVS votes to someone more likely to be active early. Scum!Oxy would have likely used the original image, had he bothered to make an image at all, since it would give him an excuse to passively wait for his RVS target to show up.

Ofrhz Read

Spoiler:

7 has a carefree attitude that I like in response to an RVS vote, and that I especially like coming from someone not comfortable with RVS generally.
12, 16 seemed odd in the moment because they misrepresented what Ruru had actually written.
18 apologizes for the misunderstanding, and

proceeds to never bring it up again

<--- townie

After this point in the thread there seems to be mainly misunderstanding/misrepresenting between the two of them. It continues to look like town trying hard to scum hunt but talking past one another. I look forward to more content from this back and forth to help cement/refute my reads, but I'm not interested in joining in.
(and yes, Sajj, I see that you also apologized for that misunderstanding, but my gut is telling me not to give you the same town cred for it. That's why I want to engage with you.)

What do you think about these reads?

seems kinda lamist tbh

1. Alright, you didn't vote her back then, why are you voting her now?
2. This feels like dodging. I asked you why you didn't participate in rvs since you said you don't have opinion, what does it have to do with how I'm voting?
3. I'm pretty sure IC will post an intro post where RVS and other basics will be explanined, but to not keep you waiting - yes, random voting stage happens at the beginning of the game.

1. Because in the post quoted below, she was misrepresenting what I was saying. I never said I didn't want eth0s to post, and I don't think i even came close to implying that. She does it again in post 24, so I'm going to keep my vote for now.

Are you saying you don't want eth0s to post?

2. Because it's hypocritical? As for why I didn't rvs, I didn't feel like I needed to. The ball kinda got rolling anyway.
3. Ah yeah, I just figured rvs ended when people no longer random voted. My vote certainly isn't random.

I like this post and I like that he called out the misrep.

2. Because it's hypocritical? As for why I didn't rvs, I didn't feel like I needed to. The ball kinda got rolling anyway.

I fail to see hypocrisy in my behavior. In 16 you say you don't have opinion on RVS, so I asked you why not vote. And then you have switched it around by saying I'm suspecting (?) you for something I did myself but that's not the case. I didn't ask you why you have moved past RVS, and I couldn't know that you did becuase you didn't cast a vote nor mentioned it.

@Scioness Sajj This is another example of what is making me suspicious. You engaged Ofrhv with a question, and he answered. Why argue about whether or not you've been hypocritical instead of asking follow up questions to continue determining his alignment? Did you already get something out of the interaction, so you don't need to continue it? Feels unnecessarily defensive.

VOTE: Scioness Sajj

I agree with this and actually think that it showcases even more hypocrisy that Sajj calls him defensive and then immediately starts being even more defensive.


I really like skitter's 40 and 49 and am hard townreading her for the scumhunting and questions she's asking.

[Oxy]

why are you asking for reads so early on

It was the first thing that came to mind.

[eth0s]

@skitter30
However you get around to town reading me is fine. I don't have a preference.

I'm not townreading you right now. I'm not explicitly scumreading you either, but you're definitely not a townread.

The thing I quoted about the image was kinda LAMIST-y (Look At Me I'm So Town) - I felt you were trying to give people a reason to townread you in an artificial-y way. Like you were using the fact that you posted that image as a way to bolster your towniness, and it felt like you were *telling* me to townread you for something kinda NAI and unverifiable, instead of showing me that you're town through your ingame actions. Like you're introducing something kinda irrelevant as a reason to townread you, so it felt like you're looking for towncred and/or are eager for people to townread you. That isn't inherently scummy, but it does make me question your motives.

As for Ofrhz, the misunderstandings later are not related to the one I'm giving him town cred for. He did not bring the first one back up.

Do the later misunderstands affect that read?

At this point three people are saying that lurking is not scummy. Considering that it is three and not two, maybe I'm just wrong about what is good play. But to me the idea that lurking is completely neutral is strange.

Oh, I never said that lurking was good play or pro-town behavior. I just don't think it's *inherently* AI - townies can and do lurk too, for a variety of reasons: they don't find the game interesting, trying to avoid the nk, busy irl, in a timezone that makes it hard to post, etc, etc, etc. Lurking is anti-town, sure. That doesn't mean that it's scummy.

Even so, there are however scummy ways of lurking imo. For example, I would find lurking *just* as a wagon builds up on you to be sketchy. That would likely make me scumread you, especially if you hadn't been lurking before that. I don't think this game has gone on long enough for me to try to differentiate between different types of lurking.

Bad/anti-town behavior isn't quite the same thing as scummy behavior - the point of the game is to try to figure out which is which

so lynching a random non-VT player should be a good thing.)

I mean, I guess theoretically? But in practice at any given moment you don't know who all the non-VT players are (ie if you're town you don't know who scum is), so lynching at random within that group is kinda difficult given that you don't actually know who's in that group.

We don't really want to lynch PRs, which is why we always want to ask people to claim before we lynch. If someone claims PR, we have to decide if the claim is credible and if their behavior supports the claim or not.

Spoiler: another really good post by skitter that I agree with heavily

@skitter30
However you get around to town reading me is fine. I don't have a preference.

I'm not townreading you right now. I'm not explicitly scumreading you either, but you're definitely not a townread.

The thing I quoted about the image was kinda LAMIST-y (Look At Me I'm So Town) - I felt you were trying to give people a reason to townread you in an artificial-y way. Like you were using the fact that you posted that image as a way to bolster your towniness, and it felt like you were *telling* me to townread you for something kinda NAI and unverifiable, instead of showing me that you're town through your ingame actions. Like you're introducing something kinda irrelevant as a reason to townread you, so it felt like you're looking for towncred and/or are eager for people to townread you. That isn't inherently scummy, but it does make me question your motives.

As for Ofrhz, the misunderstandings later are not related to the one I'm giving him town cred for. He did not bring the first one back up.

Do the later misunderstands affect that read?

At this point three people are saying that lurking is not scummy. Considering that it is three and not two, maybe I'm just wrong about what is good play. But to me the idea that lurking is completely neutral is strange.

Oh, I never said that lurking was good play or pro-town behavior. I just don't think it's *inherently* AI - townies can and do lurk too, for a variety of reasons: they don't find the game interesting, trying to avoid the nk, busy irl, in a timezone that makes it hard to post, etc, etc, etc. Lurking is anti-town, sure. That doesn't mean that it's scummy.

Even so, there are however scummy ways of lurking imo. For example, I would find lurking *just* as a wagon builds up on you to be sketchy. That would likely make me scumread you, especially if you hadn't been lurking before that. I don't think this game has gone on long enough for me to try to differentiate between different types of lurking.

Bad/anti-town behavior isn't quite the same thing as scummy behavior - the point of the game is to try to figure out which is which

so lynching a random non-VT player should be a good thing.)

I mean, I guess theoretically? But in practice at any given moment you don't know who all the non-VT players are (ie if you're town you don't know who scum is), so lynching at random within that group is kinda difficult given that you don't actually know who's in that group.

We don't really want to lynch PRs, which is why we always want to ask people to claim before we lynch. If someone claims PR, we have to decide if the claim is credible and if their behavior supports the claim or not.

I don't understand what you mean about being held accountable? My words are indelible.

You have this generic gut read on me that you want to push that you can't really explain.

I agree this was kinda sketchy. but I also make public gutreads without much evidence, so meh.

You're harping on me for using the word "and" instead of "when?" I thought my meaning was obvious given the context of the rest of my post/sentence. I can kinda see where your confusion is coming from, but it still feels like too much of a stretch, and I still think you were building a strawman here.

Based on this and other responses I don't find you particularly scummy, not enough to leave my vote overnight.

UNVOTE: ofrhz

why so concerned with leaving your vote overnight? Why not move vote instead of unvoting entirely?

Based on this and other responses I don't find you particularly scummy, not enough to leave my vote overnight.

UNVOTE: ofrhz

obvtown

serious?

You have this generic gut read on me that you want to push that you can't really explain. If I were to be mislynched today and players were looking for scum on my wagon Day 2 there's nothing that they can pinpoint to you. Reasoning is important. First piece of evidence you have posted was 44 but you backed off immidiately.

Why were you worried about being mislynched less than 24 hours into game with one vote on you?

I would also like to know this.. although it's probably been answered by now.

I find this idiom to work in life. This is my first game I'm actually scumhutning, so I have yet to find scum this wat, but I see no reason why it wouldn't work.

most players make mistakes and have holes in their logic. even town. Just saying this to be nitpicky, I do agree with the idea.

eth0s ITT:
-Vote inactive
-"activity is NAI - let's stop talking about lurking"
-4/5 of following posts suggesting or debating merits of putting a wagon on an inactive.

66 - anti-town isn't necessarily AI, but it can be.
@Eth0s Readlist please

VOTE: Eth0s

Readlist:

Spoiler:

Very Town

Ofrhz
Ruru

Town lean

Null

Skitter30
Scioness Sajj

Scum lean

Eth0s

Very Scum

P-edit @ruru That post screams town. You're clearly not very familiar with this site's meta. Presumably in shorter time period games it's not safe to leave a vote overnight if you aren't confident because a wagon and a quick hammer/forced claim might occur before you return. Scum is usually more cautious about changing votes or not voting because they don't want to unnecessarily bring attention to themselves. Would I take this read to Lylo without reevaluation? No. Would I lynch you D1? Never. Heck, even asking why I townread you deserves a very very light town read.
Would choose VT because scumhunting is the most fascinating part of this game by a mile.

I don't really think it screamed town and also don't really think there should've been any concern about leaving that vote overnight. The fact that she had to point it out so obviously that she didn't want to be a part of (what she assumed would be) a mislynch without having any real evidence to support that it was one, makes me even more suspicious tbh

The other aspect of it is ethics. Many players choose to log on invisible sometimes or all the time because of profile skimming being used against them in the way you did. Even if it is actually the case that someone actively dodging a game is scum more often than not (and that's not a proposition I would even accept without some evidence), it's kind of a sleazy way to play the game. Mafia is about reading people and intentions, and about rhetoric. Checking the last time someone visited the site doesn't really demonstrate any skill or bring any value to the game.

Are you speaking here as IC or as a player?

newb question. not sure if it pings me in any direction though?

[eth0s]

Will pick up where I left off in approx. 2.5 hours.

or will I?

[pinturicchio]

Will pick up where I left off in approx. 2.5 hours.

or will I?

A page analysis a day keeps the mislynches away (?)

[skitter30]

OK, going in order:

@pin, 501:

1. Like I get what you're saying, but I think I'm going to have to disagree with this. I think scum are more likely to be overconfidant cuz they know all the answers, and cuz that way they might be able to get people to follow them.

2. There was only like 12 hours between when she voted him and I got suspicoius of oxy, and like another 18 hours or so before she wrote a case on him, and she wasn't really active in between. I think her case is just an extension of her previous vote.

3. I think sheeping can happen if somenoe is pocketed, but someone can sheep without being pocketed. Like being pocketed is player A specifically trying to manipualte player B into townreading them. Player B can townread player A and decide to sheep them without being pocketed.

In this specific case I kinda think that 'you think his reads are good and so are following his reads' might have been a thought process he cultivated/encouraged. Like you came to it on your own, but once you did, he started throwing in some lines that would encourage you to want to follow him (like the example I quoted before at the top of 416, with the jersey thing, and you replying that you wanted the jersey. )

------------------

@oxy: you said you had read stack-the-deck and NSG was in that game. What did you think of her play?

[skitter30]

I'm having a really hard time with "lurking isn't scummy" + "posting in an anti-town manner isn't scummy".

I don't really know how to explain this. Sometimes player do things that aren't pro-town (ie like lurking), but it isn't an inherently scummy behavior.

Think about it like this - if townies always behave in a pro-town fashion, scum wouldn't be able to push mislynches cuz everyone would be obvtown, right? The fact that mislynches even happen kinda implies that townies don't always play pro-town. Like in an ideal world, all townies should want to play in the most pro-town fashion possible, and scum should want to emulate that so that they don't stick out like a sore thumb, but in practice town don't always play optimally.

Like in practice, I've found that in general, lurking isn't a scumtell. It might be for some specific people (it is for me), but in general it's an 'I'm busy in real life' tell, or an 'I don't care about this game' tell. Like lurking, besides for specific meta cases, has not been directly correlated with being scum in my experience.

In recent past games:

Spoiler:

Mini 1963 - Lalendra was posting theories that were flat-out illogical and made no sense and got into a whole 1v1 over defending it. Scum pushed her - obviously being so irrational is a scumtell, right? Town couldn't be *that* clueless as to the actual gamestate. Scum quickhammered and she flipped town.

Later in Mini 1963 - wave decided to lie through MYLO mass-claim, we lynched scum, and when he claimed the next day, I didn't really believe it for a whole host of reasons. And when he claimed, he claimed odd-night vanilla cop although he was a full vanilla cop - and claiming full vanilla cop would have put the game on lock given the results we already had . He got into a role-based 1v1 with scum and got mislynched. I'm still annoyed about this one.

Micro 756 - Flubber was lurking cuz he was busy irl and blew up at people for pressuring him and started cursing out people. He almost got lynched for not being townie. I objected cuz I don't think 'not being townie' is the same thing as 'being scummy', and got myself scumread by the biggest proponent of the flubber wagon for my trouble. I was stubborn enough about it to prevent it from happening, I got nk'd and flubber got lynched in LYLO to lose town the game. The proponent of the flubber wagon was scum.

Open 711 - Sky decided it was a good idea to fake-claim cop in an open setup in MYLO. It appeared to be a 1v1 between him and the other dude who claimed cop. I believed the other dude, voted sky, and .... he flipped town. (The other dude was actually the cop, and sky was town and I don't get what he was thinking).

And so on. I can find a bunch of examples. Like all of these things are annoying and anti-town but I'm learning that they aren't *scummy* behavior.

[Oxy]

@oxy: you said you had read stack-the-deck and NSG was in that game. What did you think of her play?

I remember that she was in the game, and not much more. I don't remember yelling at her through my screen, which is something I do when town reads push terrible cases, or when obvscum is getting a pass. If you really, really, really want me to, I'll do a reread of that game.

[Oxy]

I should have been more specific there. I yell at the obvscum, not the players giving them passes. You'd think it would be the opposite, but it's not.

[skitter30]

@ofrzh: I haven't read 1851 and I'm not sure when I'll have a chance to do so, but I will try to read the mafia PT as I can.

---------------

@oxy: I'm not sure how I feel about 504 - specifically how confident you are now that she *isn't* scum. Like you're now arguing that she's upset!town, and you seem to be like 100% on that read, and it just seems .... so abrupt? Idk. I'm not sure how I feel about you going from conf!scum to conf!town (telling me that I'm right for townreading her) on the basis of these two posts. There's just no progression and I feel like you did a total 180.

I think I want to keep you in my lynchpool - there's just a lot of red flags coming from you that make me very nervous. Some of your individual posts townping me but some individual posts scumping me, and holistically your play seems very pocket-y and I'm not really liking the drixx wagon thing or how you were handling scioness before.

I'm pretty sure ofrzh is town. Pin I'm gutreading as town for now and I don't really want to lynch him. ruru's posts on this page are townpinging me.

I don't really have a read on eth0s or nsg.

Drixx is a slight scumlean cuz of his weird posts but not strong enough for me to want to lynch him. I really don't think that the lurking is AI like at all. Idk if it's a reaction test; I do want to know what he's thinking though.

scioness is probably town but I think 1851 is required reading for this game so I'm going to have to read that before I commit to it.

p-edit: no you don't have to reread it.

[pinturicchio]

OK, going in order:

@pin, 501:

1. Like I get what you're saying, but I think I'm going to have to disagree with this. I think scum are more likely to be overconfidant cuz they know all the answers, and cuz that way they might be able to get people to follow them.

2. There was only like 12 hours between when she voted him and I got suspicoius of oxy, and like another 18 hours or so before she wrote a case on him, and she wasn't really active in between. I think her case is just an extension of her previous vote.

3. I think sheeping can happen if somenoe is pocketed, but someone can sheep without being pocketed. Like being pocketed is player A specifically trying to manipualte player B into townreading them. Player B can townread player A and decide to sheep them without being pocketed.

In this specific case I kinda think that 'you think his reads are good and so are following his reads' might have been a thought process he cultivated/encouraged. Like you came to it on your own, but once you did, he started throwing in some lines that would encourage you to want to follow him (like the example I quoted before at the top of 416, with the jersey thing, and you replying that you wanted the jersey. )

------------------

@oxy: you said you had read stack-the-deck and NSG was in that game. What did you think of her play?

1. Ok, I get your point too, so not going to insist with my point!
2. Fair enough, but what do you think on my case on Scioness in general? I know this will be difficult to you because we are on different sidewalks, but from my point of view, town!Oxy took the bait and now is townreading Scioness because of the AtE. Why do you think scum!Oxy would do this? If Oxy was town, do you believe Scioness would be town too?
3. Ok, of course i don't feel pocketed because I feel my reads are not affected by him, but I get your point and it makes sense from your point on view. I simply think Oxy is town and that happened before the "pocketing"

[skitter30]

3. I'm unconvinced that anyone is conftown on day 1 and this plan basically relies on people being conftown.
3. If one of your reasons for TRing skitter is that given her current playstyle she will be obvscum later by having to push poor lynches, but we already decided on those lynches, then I don't think the original logic applies.
Suppose scum is eth0s+skitter or pin+skitter and skitter busses her partner and then just gets to lylo automatically by following the plan (first 2 days would be 3 town + 1 scum dead, then day 3 2 more town die, then day 4 it's 3-way lylo unless PRs save us). And 3-way lylo seems like a big diceroll to me, especially if scum hasn't had to do anything scummy all game. I mean I guess it's 2/3rds win in theory but even that's assuming there are three 100% conftown.

Goodposting. I'm getting townpings from this.

[northsidegal]

right then, posting this to get back to catching up

[Scioness Sajj]

Alright I'm back and have like 5 posts to address.

@Oxy - it's fine, don't worry about it. I'm missing from the gamestate part and I'm not sure what to make of it, why didn't you include me?
504 seems sincere, it explains some (most?) things that had been confusing me in Oxy's behaviour. We will see as this goes.

UNVOTE: oxy

[eth0s]

At least up to page 5 looks like oxy vs sajj is likely tvs or tvt.

Spoiler: page 5

@Drixx is part of your reasoning for sparing us the IC copy paste because you think that the people in this game seem like pretty capable mafia players?

I don't like this.

still think it's weird that sajj posted this

Oxy: I get that you're townreading me because we had similar thoughts about how to approach the game (or so you say), but why are you

so

sure?

Also, I have a question for everyone here. If you could choose your role at the beginning of the game, which would you prefer?

oh yeah I forgot to answer this. jailkeeper

@Drixx is part of your reasoning for sparing us the IC copy paste because you think that the people in this game seem like pretty capable mafia players?

I don't like this.

Care to share why?

You're not interested in townreads

so nah, I have nothing to share with you.

Are you saying he's not interested in knowing who you think is town? Or something else?

@eth0s - Have you formed an opinion on Oxy?

had I read the game more carefully (like I am now), I would be more suspicious of him. Just so much lamist and I get a sense he may be trying to confuse town. scumlean for now

As I read it, Ruru said: If the lurker pool consisted of town PRs and scum, and the town pr to scum ratio is 1:1, then lynching within the lurker pool would give a 50% chance of catching scum, a far higher chance than a random lynch. I think it was more theoretical than practical, but that's my opinion.

I don't like this because lynching a town PR is awful and I think they are

usually

more likely to lurk than most scum players. Before anyone points out hypocrisy from when I said to wagon a lurker, I think wagoning people to pressure some posting is much better than lynching them. At least on day one.

Spoiler: page 6

He is a scumhunter which gets respect from me. I think he seems a little more capable than he's leading on. I would say null but overall I have a townie gutread on him.

I'm asking bc he comes across as trying hard to be town read. His lamisty posts earlier don't factor into your initial impressions?

they do. I was honestly so lazy when I initially read this game.

Seems like an interaction for the sake of interacting. I don't really see much usefulness in knowing what Drixx thinks of players capability.

okay?

Sorry for multipost... I'm hesitant to really pressure eth0s because he is sick and there is plenty of time in D1 for him to get better first. If people are interested in putting a few votes on Drixx to give him incentive to post, I would be for that.

Again, it's still fairly early day1; I'm not too worried about people not contributing overly much yet. If he hasn't posted much in like a few days irl from now, I'd maybe be down for that.

I think at this point it might be more useful to vote for a scumread than as pressure for people to post; game's moving fairly well along given the size and given the fact that a few slots are relatively absent.

did she hold up to this? I will see...

@oxy It's not I have no idea what you are trying to tell me.

You are confident in your null read on me but you won't commit to it becuae you are unable to create the read?

"confident in your null read"
hmm

why were people asking oxy to townread them? and why was it only Oxy being asked?

[skitter30]

1. Ok, I get your point too, so not going to insist with my point!
2. Fair enough, but what do you think on my case on Scioness in general? I know this will be difficult to you because we are on different sidewalks, but from my point of view, town!Oxy took the bait and now is townreading Scioness because of the AtE. Why do you think scum!Oxy would do this? If Oxy was town, do you believe Scioness would be town too?
3. Ok, of course i don't feel pocketed because I feel my reads are not affected by him, but I get your point and it makes sense from your point on view. I simply think Oxy is town and that happened before the "pocketing"

2. I actually think that I'm going to let her respond to your case before I go through it line-by-line.

I think that scum!oxy saw that town!scioness had reacted fairly townie under pressure and that he felt he may not have been able to push her through to a lynch anymore, so he decided to go the other way and townread her.

I'm pretty sure that scioness/oxy is not svs; I don't think anyone goes through that much scum theater. I think it's probably not tvt either but I don't know how to explain why it doesn't feel that way to me. I think it's tvs, and right now I'm thinking scioness is town and oxy is scum.

3. OK that's fair but I'm going to keep an eye on this.