Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[eth0s]

I hated sajj's tone on this page and feel like I'm more leaning on her being scum than Oxy so far

Spoiler: page 7

@oxy, so you have put all this effort in and came out with nothing because?

or that you're being kinda difficult with her but much more open with me.

I think he was tunneling me (I felt tunneled) and that's were his unwillingness to talk to me came from.

I actually think this is a fairly interesting bit of info tbh. If someone believes someone to be a stronger player, they'll read them differently than if they think they're a weaker player; the perceived capability of a player often affects the read.

Alright I understnad that, but how is it going to help eth0s solve the game? Is this meta related?

why are you so concerned about the question I asked drixx?? it's honestly just to hear something IC'ish from the IC and if I like it I may or may not sheep it. To me, when town, this game is all about being the detective or following a better one. You either make and publish the best or most convincing reads, or you follow the ones that sound good. So why is it so bad for me to ask someone more knowledgeable then me for info?

Sure, after I get what I want from you.

who is being difficult now?

I read that as after I read your ISO of 1851 - correct?

I concluded that you are proficient at faking scum hunting when playing as scum. I concluded that you would be a difficult slot to pin down, and I concluded that your slot would best be left to analysis on a future day once VCA and NKs can be taken into account.

Oxy, do you also think that scum!sajj would be trying to openly shut down other peoples' scum hunting methods, based on your reading?

I think it could give information about people's personalities which aren't AI by themselves but can be compared to their actions. (I also was trying to move the game forward.)

Could you elaborate on this? I mean, an example where chosing and aligment and acting in specific way gives you a result.

I would prefer to answer this later because answering it now could change people's behavior.

Why did you want to moved the game from the state it was in?

It's not easy to form reads based on the writing of people I haven't met before, since I don't have anything to compare it to, so I wanted to try a new approach.

BTW, so far I have answers from skitter, Oxy, and ofrhz, but not from eth0s, and Drixx, or you, Sajj. I'd love to hear from the rest!

I will say there seems to be a lot of scum hunters in this game which I am not used to, especially in newbie queue. I think this game will be a head scratcher

I don't like this very much at all. Similar to "wow, that sucks" after a PR gets NKed, it just seems too easy for scum to post about how hard/confusing the game is without contributing much.

I really liked this post from ruru and I'm glad she called out my post 125 because it was a reaction test.

I'd pick vig to shoot Oxy in the face.

If we are talking setup specific I'd go with vt or maybe jailkeep.

your posts just keep getting harsher on Oxy after he admits tunneling you for info. Just seems like weird counter-play idk.

@oxy, so you have put all this effort in and came out with nothing because?

I don't like this. You come off as smarter than this.

or that you're being kinda difficult with her but much more open with me.

I think he was tunneling me (I felt tunneled) and that's were his unwillingness to talk to me came from.

Don't like this either. When has he demonstrated an unwillingness to talk? Your 1v1 with Oxy makes up like 30% of this game so far

100% agree with ofrhz

[Scioness Sajj]

In the 1851 Mafia PT, she has planned on different occasions to throw fits for show. 477 or 479 are NAI. She shouldn't be taken out of the lynchpool based on these posts alone.

I don’t understand what ‘fits for show’ have to do with the ate itself. I have NEVER in that game planned ate to gain towncred or townreads. I have mentioned fighting people or wanting to fight them.
Was I in skitter’s lynchpool?

[eth0s]

Spoiler: page 8

I just spent a ridiculously long time going through Oxy v Sajj; it was hard to follow because there was so much talking over each other. From Oxy's side, part of this is understandable because Sajj's writing style is friggin hard to follow.

On the other side, Sajj makes leaping assumptions about what Oxy says and is at points putting words into his mouth. Considering this is a text-based game and figuring out what each person is trying to say is important, I generally think this is suspicious. However, Sajj's defensiveness comes off as genuine. I'm inclined to think this is a massive town v town spat at this point.

I want to agree that it's tvt but their tone's are making it hard for me to say there's no scum in them

It feels to me like Sajj is playing with the goal of not being scum read rather than playing with the goal of finding scum. Does anyone else see it that way?

yes. but how does it compare to the scum game of hers that you have read?

btw I don't think omgusing is scummy. And you are omgusing me if you have got a scumread on me from thinking that I scum read you, which I think you did, but it seems like it's not actually a case? I don't know I'll come back to this tomorrow.

this just makes me feel even more inclined to agree with Oxy that sajj is just concerned with not being scumread.

I honestly don't like how long the 1v1 went on. And hope it ended after this page because this is allowing everyone but sajj and oxy to coast and only have to speak about the 1v1. This could allow scum to sit back and pressure a mislynch. We need to be more involved with each player. Hopefully this is was already addressed.

I just spent a ridiculously long time going through Oxy v Sajj; it was hard to follow because there was so much talking over each other. From Oxy's side, part of this is understandable because Sajj's writing style is friggin hard to follow.

On the other side, Sajj makes leaping assumptions about what Oxy says and is at points putting words into his mouth. Considering this is a text-based game and figuring out what each person is trying to say is important, I generally think this is suspicious. However, Sajj's defensiveness comes off as genuine. I'm inclined to think this is a massive town v town spat at this point.

So, I noticed this dynamic as well. Namely, Scioness appears to be misreading some of Oxy's posts and is coming to conclusions I don't think he intended. Once I noted that, the next thing to do is to figure out if she's doing that on purpose. From a few of Scioness' posts, I had gotten the vibe that English may not be her first language, which she has since confirmed (@Scioness: your English is quite excellent; I only picked up on it cuz I was looking for it in this context). So, I think a lot of the misreadings/misunderstandings might be stemming from there. I don't think she's doing it maliciously, or is trying to be difficult to understand. I think a lot of this thing comes down to the two of them not communicating with each other well, and that they are talking past each other and are just in general misreading the other's posts.

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@mod:

btw, you have eth0s both voting and not-voting.

Fixed.

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It feels to me like Sajj is playing with the goal of not being scum read rather than playing with the goal of finding scum. Does anyone else see it that way?

Not particularly? Where are you getting that from?

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2. I don't think not sharing thoughts has to be AI, but the manner he goes about it bothers me. Example in spoiler in 172, which he also ignored and went stright to scumreading me and he has found 170 to have a vote on me, but it seems like an excuse for a vote more than a reason.

Is it accurate to say that you think he's deliberately ignoring you? IE that you don't inherently have a problem with someone not sharing thoughts, but you dislike it when people avoid direct questions, which is what you think he's doing?

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Are you implying something here?

That's just a phrase I use when I think a post (and/or player) is super townie and just comes from like an obviously town mindset.
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If it wasn't clear, I'm saying I think she told us her scum game plan, and then she executed it.

I don't understand the conclusion you're drawing. Specifically, what's her scum plan?

Nm, I read 191. No, I'm not particularly getting that vibe. I think that a lot of her posts are indicating frustration with you and that she'd like to remove you from the game because of that (hence vig shot), not that she wants to remove you because she necessarily finds you scummy. In that context, I actually find the fact that she hasn't voted you to be kinda townie cuz it means she's trying to figure out if her read on you stems from frustration or from genuinely finding you scummy.

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196 - point 1 feels kinda reachy to me?

fine post but I just feel like this is a perfect example of people being able to post enough to not be sparse, but also just focus on the 1v1 and hope one of them gets lynched. The fact that ofrhz says this is tvt honestly makes me think its tvs because if it were tvt then literally everyone in the game would probably try to instigate the 1v1 participants into a wagon.

[eth0s]

I don't like that Oxy didn't respond to 240. I know it wasn't a question but still.
I asked multiple questions in the spoiler.

Spoiler: pages 9 to 11

I just spent a ridiculously long time going through Oxy v Sajj; it was hard to follow because there was so much talking over each other.

I know right...

However, Sajj's defensiveness comes off as genuine.

She also acted tilted at one point in 1859 when being accused. I would consider her defensiveness as NAI.

It feels to me like Sajj is playing with the goal of not being scum read rather than playing with the goal of finding scum. Does anyone else see it that way?

I think her playing style is a bit odd. Not inherently scummy or towny, just odd, and that makes it more difficult to read.

My introduction to mafia was IRL mafia in a certain circle of what I think were fairly experienced players. I had never played or seen the game played before, and I was majoring in math, so my playstyle was pretty strange. I played two games with them; in the first I rolled mafia and the second I rolled VT. In both games I claimed mafia with a villainous grin on day 1, because I thought I may as well explore weird options to balance myself (in the poker/game theory sense), because I didn't think I could pull off mafia when I rolled it unless I always acted scummy and I didn't want people to be reading me. (I also got lynched on day 1 in both games and never played mafia again with that group.)

SS reminds me of a much less silly and more sophisticated version of that. It almost feels like she is playing with the goal of balancing herself for future metagame reasons. Or maybe I am reading way more into this and it's just her personality.

One other thing I noticed is she likes to not-answer people's questions by asking them a question instead. I think she is doing this more here than she did in 1859.

@188 I believe she did answer my question but I will wait for another explanation.

I was really looking for ruru's comments on the state of the game.

Also she said she was trying to move the game forward by asking the question, but she never really followed up on it, or commented much after that. So was she saying that to be like "look at me, I want to move the game forward to help town!!!111"? basically I still think she's suspicious.

I haven't followed up on it because not everyone has answered yet and I don't want to help scum game the question. I'm planning to post my reads afterward.

after what? how does it help scum to release the info for everyone to see then rather than later? Not a big fan of this post.

I feel like ever since I initially FoS'd her,

Sajj has spent the vast amount of her posts trying to get me to town read her,

and then getting frustrated when I wasn't. I get that town wants to be town read, but I feel like town's focus should be on finding scum. I feel like Sajj is a good enough player and smart enough person to expect this focus from town!Sajj.

Can you show me specifically where you think the bolded is happening?

Also, yes, town's focus should be on finding scum, but I kinda think that town ought to try to get townread too - it can take you out of the lynch pool and thus make it easier for everyone else to find scum by PoE.

I also kinda feel like you're expecting a lot from her given that it's literally her second game. Also since you said you don't think you can meta her, and she doesn't even have any towngames to look at in comparison, I'm not really sure why you think town!her would not behave this way.

It is reachy, but I'm not telepathic. Maybe she did it subconsciously because she knows that it's a good scum strategy and as such she found it an easy way to throw some shade that might stick. Maybe she's running on putting on airs after being praised for her successful scum game in her previous game, and thought she was invincible. Maybe it was something else. Let's ask her in postgame.

Like I'm not asking you to be telepathic, but you kinda have to give me a plausible and reasonable explanation for why she, as scum, would publicly telegraph her plan of setting you up as a mislynch if you want me to entertain the idea.

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205 - I'm an applied math major (and I'm taking game theory next quarter )

Game related - This entire post kinda feels kinda :/ to me. Like you don't outright call Sajj scum, but indicate you find her sketchy for a variety of reasons. But since you don't really follow that up by trying to sort her by talking to her or by laying down a vote, I kinda feel like you're just making a general observation that you find her sketchy without doing anything about it. It makes me feel like you're comfortable finding her vaguely sketchy without trying to sort her, which feels kinda shade-y to me.

another good skitter post...

I'm going to wait for eth0s to elaborate before moving forward. The above was simply a joke above. Please don't read too much into it.

sorry

I will. waiting on eht0s first. Didn't want to post much of anything, tbh, but you got under my skin.

oops

Sorry for multipost... I'm hesitant to really pressure eth0s because he is sick and there is plenty of time in D1 for him to get better first. If people are interested in putting a few votes on Drixx to give him incentive to post, I would be for that.

p. edit - My inability to create a read on you that I am somewhat confident in is stopping me from committing to a read on you. I think I'm being rather clear??

You can try that if you like. The honest truth (and you can feel free to check my games going back to my join if you don't believe me) is that I am as active as I can possibly be regardless of my alignment. I enjoy aspects of all roles and alignments. Mafia is one of my main hobbies and it gets as much time as I can give it. That fluctuates depending on my work and other commitments.

In this case, when I /in as IC, I was expecting another couple weeks before getting a game, as there was a lengthy list ahead of me. So it wasn't my intention to be playing IC in a newbie game at the same time the biggest crunch at work is going on. By the next day phase (unless we move ridiculously fast) I'll be more my usual self.

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I believe that Oxy vs. Sajj is a TvT. There's a lot of indicators there of that. There's an off chance that they are the scum team and putting on quite a lot of theatre, but generally it's crazy risky to go to the extent they have, and I just don't get that vibe.

Out of the players who have posted enough to get an early read on, I would suspect scum is in {ofrhz, eth0s, skitter}.

Most of the game so far is comprised of the Oxy v. Sajj fest so I'd kind of like to see where else we can go before we decide to be locked in there.

@Drixx

I agree but can you elaborate on the "I would suspect scum is in {ofrhz, eth0s, skitter}" please?

Ok guys its really late here in Chile and I tried to read everything but somewhere in between became really difficult, and I already convinced myself that Oxy is scum and that his partner is either ruru or ofrhz because of the early towncred to both. A lot of scum motivation there, gives free credit to his partner by giving credit to two players instead of one. The towncred he gives to both is so random I really can't see any other explanation. Also his 1v1 with Scioness seems like building the first mislynch of the game, and he's doing quite good, but nah, you're scum.
VOTE: Oxy

interesting opener... Why does it seem like Oxy never responded to this?

ebwop:
not 'explained by', 'answered by'.

Welcome, pinturicchio.

Forgot to vote ealier.
VOTE: ruru

wait either I'm misunderstanding something or... why aren't you voting Oxy during this whole 1v1?

If Ofrhz is scum, then Oxy almost certainly is. That was a pretty blatant post connecting them at the hip. I suppose it could be an intentional fake out... but that would require a tremendous level of self awareness to realize how he would react if he was paired with Oxy and someone pointed it out and then actually react exactly that way and hit all the right notes.

@Drixx

can you elaborate on this

Thanks! By the way, someone already talked about Newbie 1851 and I read that game too; you are on my watch list because of that game, you blended in so good! But I'm townleaning you for now, because the 1v1 with Oxy is an SvT and you are the T.

Oh lol, has somebody not read that game?
I like what you are saying there and I don't. I will need you to explain those reads at some point n the future.

I'm having trouble catching up, why the vote on ruru? Help good ol' Pin please

There are some inconsistencies from Ruru I want to figure out.

I did not read newbie 1851.

SS: Ok.

Meanwhile...

At this point three people are saying that lurking is not scummy. Considering that it is three and not two, maybe I'm just wrong about what is good play. But to me the idea that lurking is completely neutral is strange. (And I realize PRs might have reason to lurk, but in 7/9 setups town PRs are 1:1 mafia and in 2/9 setups town PRs are 1:2 mafia, so lynching a random non-VT player should be a good thing.)

umm. actually lynching a scum or VT would be the best bet. Why would you say that lynching a PR is better than lynching a VT?

@eth0s I don't think we should lynch a random lurker, but your response - misunderstanding or purposeful mischaracterization?

I also don't think we should lynch a random lurker. wagon =/= lynch. So I don't think you should imply that I said that. Also I didn't misunderstand or misrep ruru. She said "so lynching a random non-VT player should be a good thing". That sentence just doesn't sit well with me. Obviously lynching scum is a good idea but why imply that VT is the worst thing to lynch? That just doesn't make any sense.

I really find it strange that someone who is playing to win as town would be misunderstanding this multiple times. If you misunderstood it once, wouldn't you start thinking through the possibilities?

1. not giving you a readlist because I don't need to.

There's not enough going on for me to read yet. Give me an irl day or two and you'll get reads. Probably more frequently than you want.

VOTE: Scioness Sajj

Will elaborate when I have more time. Should be available within next 14 hours. Almost done being super bust for awhile.

VOTE: eth0s

I didn't bother you the past couple days, but that doesn't mean I've forgotten about you. Please explain your play.

Recommended reading: Newbie 1848. Is it the same person?

@Ruru

how do you feel about me now?

I'm going to be away until evening EST, but I'll put in some effort then, so feel free to leave me any questions. Ideally, Eth0s follows up on the quote below while I am gone.

Will elaborate when I have more time. Should be available within next 14 hours. Almost done being super bust for awhile.

I only realized just this moment that your name is not Heisenberg. lol

Pinturicchio, could you please give us your thoughts on Ruru and Ofrhz? From your PoV, there are only three players in need of examination, so I expect you've put some thought into it? I would be interested in your thoughts on others as well, to a lesser extent.

I'll answer this next, I have to prepare everything for the DBS' last episode and will come back to this

Ok Oxy here's my answer, I'll talk about Ruru and Ofrhz first, I'll go further on my other reads in another post. But before talking about this, I've gotta say, we NEED a replacement for the last slot; if that slot is scum, all of the reads we have are useless because of the lack of interaction of that slot and his/her partner and the rest of town. PRs need to sort the best course of action for the night and having someone missing is worse for town than scum (even if the remaining player is a VT).

That being off my chest: my gutread when I came to this game was that there was a "love triangle" between you (Oxy), ofrhz and ruru, and by love triangle I mean there was a loooot of interaction between you three. Let me put an example: ruru voted for ofrhz because of some mafia theory reason, you and Scioness vote for ruru, ofhrz says he was going to vote for ruru but both of you voted for her first and that she answered already, and literally two posts later ofrhz goes and vote for ruru because of bad reading comprehension. Some posts later, you go with your infamous post where you give too much towncred to both ruru and ofrhz, and ofrhz disagrees with your townread on ruru, and ruru also disagrees with you giving her so much credit. You then go in a 1v1 with Scioness and guess who says that got trouble reading the 1v1 but thought it was a TvT? You guessed it: ofrhz. In the meantime, ruru unvoted ofrhz because she didn't want to keep her vote overnight on someone she was starting to townlean, and started a random question because of... reasons she can't explain.

Conclusion? Ruru was REALLY gamesolvey at the start and it made sense, since she said she was used to another forum where days were shorter; that's why her unvote on ofrhz ping me as scum retracting on getting too much attention with a wagon no one was following. On the other side, my read of ofrhz is totally based on my read on you; that's why I said earlier that, if you flip scum, he MUST be your partner, it just obvious newb!scum; but if you flip town, your read on him would start to make more sense.

i liked the majority of this post.. I do have a few problems with it that I probably won't elaborate on yet.

Now, about the other 4 players who are here:
eth0s: I played a game with him where he was the D1 lynch... He lynched himself being VT. Don't try to sort him too early, it's not going to work. He hasn't engaged enough also. I'm townleaning him because of reasons I will discuss when it's appropiate, but trust me, you don't want to lynch eth0s wihout him giving his thoughts about the game. He has good reads as town; if he gives a shitty read, that's a tell.
Dryxx: don't know where, but I townread him because of something... maybe because he sees the same connection I see between ofrhz and Oxy, but he says "if ofrhz is scum, Oxy is scum too" and I think it's the opposite, which may look the same but it isn't. But I do need more content coming from him to sort him out.
Scionness: already talked about her: town vibes, but I don't trust her because her scumgame is so good. I'll sort her out when it's needed, hope I'm dead before that happens.
skitter: I have absolutely nothing to say, I don't remember any of her posts so no reads on her. Not nullreading, just no reads lol

also good

BUT! The thing is, you've been acting scummy either if you're Oxy's partner or not. What I mean is, if we lynch Oxy today and he flips scum, both you and ofrhz would be in my lynchpool for D2; but if Oxy flipped town, you would still be on my lynchpool and I would townlean ofrhz.

If ruru is scummy independantly of oxy, why are you voting oxy and not ruru? I get that oxy's flip will help you read ofrhz, but you still think that ruru is scummy irregardless of oxy's flip.

If we lynch Oxy and he's scum, ofrhz is his partner; if Oxy flips town, ofrhz is prob!town. If we lynch ruru and she's scum, nice! But who's her partner? Could be Oxy; if she's town, back to plan A with Oxy and ofrhz being partners in crime.

From my point of view (as biased as I am with this trio), lynching Oxy is the best way to go.

you seem very confident this game. I need to read your posts from our last game together.

over half way there

[eth0s]

Spoiler: page 12

Look I'm sorry and hate to be that guy but I have just been so busy. I am finally off work and school tomorrow so I WILL have some meaningful content soon. Would do it now but alcohol may be clouding my judgement. I will say that I am liking Oxy's posts a lot and think he is probably night kill target #1 (assuming he isn't scum).

Oxy was not at all at risk of being night-killed. Disregard this.

I know Sajj has posed questions for me, but I'm just going to ignore them for the moment. My town reads remain unconvinced that she is scum, and that is enough to give me pause at this point. Don't misunderstand me. Sajj is still my #1 lynch today. I just don't think it's pro-town to continue going back and forth with her right now.

finally

@Ofrhz How do you feel about RVS in a general sense?

Ah. I misunderstood your question.
Ruru Read

Spoiler:

Initial vote on 5 seemed scummy initially because (in my mind) it implied that eth0s had been logged in AFTER the game began and had been lurking. This wasn't the case as I pointed out in 8.

In reality, Ruru had checked other members of the game, found the person who had been active most recently, and chose them. This is super town motivated because it increases the chances that Ruru has to actually engage with the person they vote on.

It also turns out to be exactly the mindset that I took last night while waiting for the game to begin. I made the following image to accompany a vote on Callitwhatyouwant, referencing the difference in our name lengths:



And then I looked at everyone's last time online, realized how long it had been since they had logged in, and decided to switch RVS votes to someone more likely to be active early. Scum!Oxy would have likely used the original image, had he bothered to make an image at all, since it would give him an excuse to passively wait for his RVS target to show up.

Ofrhz Read

Spoiler:

7 has a carefree attitude that I like in response to an RVS vote, and that I especially like coming from someone not comfortable with RVS generally.
12, 16 seemed odd in the moment because they misrepresented what Ruru had actually written.
18 apologizes for the misunderstanding, and

proceeds to never bring it up again

<--- townie

After this point in the thread there seems to be mainly misunderstanding/misrepresenting between the two of them. It continues to look like town trying hard to scum hunt but talking past one another. I look forward to more content from this back and forth to help cement/refute my reads, but I'm not interested in joining in.
(and yes, Sajj, I see that you also apologized for that misunderstanding, but my gut is telling me not to give you the same town cred for it. That's why I want to engage with you.)

What do you think about these reads?

If you could choose your role at the beginning of the game, which would you prefer?

mafia roleblocker

I'll bite. Why mafia roleblocker?

Could you please explain the case for Ofrhz being scum iff oxy=scum

Here are the posts that incriminates ofrhz as your partner. I had some posts from ofrhz too but this would be too long. Basically your interactions with him is giving him the option to create content so he can get towncred from everyone else. These interactions seems prefabricated, like ofrhz asking you in your mafia chat "dude ask me about why I like being mafia roleblocker, I have a good answer to redirect this to ruru" kind of prefabrication. Also, ofrhz saying "Scioness and Oxy's 1v1 was painful to read, but it comes from TvT and I don't want to add fuel to the fire there" is odd.

What I see here is a well aligned mafia! Mafia has daytalk so making this kind of strategy is fully possible: you townread your partner and your partner's D1 mislynch target; your partner push that wagon as there is no tomorrow (he #242 he asks Drixx why in his lynchpool he's not considering ruru, as an example of what I'm portraying); your partner's D1 target gets mislynched, and you successfully gave yourself an alibi if your partner gets lynched on D2. You could even jump on your partner's wagon to get even more towncred! And if your partner's D1 target doesn't get mislynched on D1 and you both survive to D1, even better! Keep this going for D2 and you will be closer to the win.

This is why my read on ofrhz is tied to my read on you: if you flip scum, ofrhz is your partner; if you flip town, all the interactions between both of you comes from town. But you could be doing this exact same strategy with ruru, with ruru going on ofrhz and now following your scumlean on eth0s; then, my lynchpool is well defined. I know this is a tinfoil hat theory, but omg I love my tinfoil hat theories in this game.

I like this tinfoil hat theory... maybe enough to lynch Oxy. But as far as game contribution quality goes I honestly don't know if I could lynch him over sajj.

I don't really understand why you don't think his posts come from scum. Can you explain again?

I think he genuinely isn’t aware how certain things make him look when he thinks he is right, yet he knows he needs town to listen to him to get things he believes in done, so he will occasionally lamist and talk to you the way he does (or answer your questions for me).
It can be either way alignment wise but I believe his tunnel is ego driven and he is generally just stubborn, I don’t think it’s premediadated. All his reads form from the things on the surface, his confscum on D1 is his gut read and he is kissing up to you because of respect he has gained from that game he has read. My rationale is all of this is too shallow to be faked.
His case on me has gave me a sample big enough to draw conclusions about his motives and playstyle when it’s pointed towards me. I’m sort of on a fence still but there are more things that make me lean town. There is no reason to push this further in the gamstate we are in. I’d rather poke other people and wait for eth0s and second replacement and watch how Oxy interacts with others.
I also think I see what Drixx and Pin are talking about with {oxy, ruru, ofrhz} and I’m much more interested in development on this matter than just solving Oxy’s slot.

although, I do like this post.

[eth0s]

Spoiler: pages 13/14

re convincing - I don't find it scummy in general and especially not in the context Pin used it originally.
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some updates:
- some people are scumming it up for me, I wanna take a back sit for a moment and watch how all of this plays out
- not in for a ruru lynch or putting her on L-1 so I'm hopping off the wagon

UNVOTE: ruru

I think lynching ruru would be unwise as of this page and agree with sajj for unvoting.

@Skitter30

When analyzing behavior, you seem to be asking "Is there a reasonable doubt that this behavior is indicative of scum/town?" and if the answer is yes, you discount the behavior when forming your read on the player.

You don't like it when others attribute their reads to behaviors that haven't passed that test in your mind, and you argue against it. I believe that this has had a moderating effect on the game to some degree.

This behavior is seriously pro town. Pro town play is not necessarily alignment indicative. That said, I think that maintaining your current playstyle while playing to a scum win con would get much more difficult as the game goes on, and I think this playstyle feels, and should continue to feel, natural for town!Skitter30. +town points

You had a lot of hollow content early where you explained things like why someone might lurk, etc. I was looking for them to die down as we got rolling, and they have. +town points

As to the basics, you have excellent questions, and you usually follow up on their answers. Your analysis seems very reasonable even when it is incorrect. Your voting conformed early to the cautious style I have described, and has looked pro town in intent since having belatedly left RVS. +town points

I have not found instances in your post where the inner town emotions ring unambiguously clear and true. +NAI

tl;dr Skitter30 is playing a very townie game. If Skitter30 is scum, I expect her to basically scum claim by Lylo.

what do you think about her having the opportunity to only talk about your 1v1?

(useless post)

Eth0s is like a wrecking ball, he will eventually come

lmao, still waiting for wrecking ball eth0s

not sure if a wrecking ball is coming. this game is really hard for me to read. :/

@Skitter30

When analyzing behavior, you seem to be asking "Is there a reasonable doubt that this behavior is indicative of scum/town?" and if the answer is yes, you discount the behavior when forming your read on the player.

You don't like it when others attribute their reads to behaviors that haven't passed that test in your mind, and you argue against it. I believe that this has had a moderating effect on the game to some degree.

This behavior is seriously pro town. Pro town play is not necessarily alignment indicative. That said, I think that maintaining your current playstyle while playing to a scum win con would get much more difficult as the game goes on, and I think this playstyle feels, and should continue to feel, natural for town!Skitter30. +town points

You had a lot of hollow content early where you explained things like why someone might lurk, etc. I was looking for them to die down as we got rolling, and they have. +town points

As to the basics, you have excellent questions, and you usually follow up on their answers. Your analysis seems very reasonable even when it is incorrect. Your voting conformed early to the cautious style I have described, and has looked pro town in intent since having belatedly left RVS. +town points

I have not found instances in your post where the inner town emotions ring unambiguously clear and true. +NAI

tl;dr Skitter30 is playing a very townie game. If Skitter30 is scum, I expect her to basically scum claim by Lylo.

Ok, this... Is not what I was expecting.
UNVOTE: Oxy

his townreading of skitter just destroyed your whole tinfoil hat theory?

ruru's 321 seemed like a long way of saying nothing. And giving poor reads. But I could see it as newb!town

Ok, this... Is not what I was expecting.
UNVOTE: Oxy

I think this read could be as easily faked by scum as any I have written in this game, and could be more easily faked than most. What, precisely, makes you town read me for it?[/quote]
^

Ironically, it's only after I stop pushing a lynch on Sajj that she starts throwing scum tells out left and right.

where?

I would suspect scum is in {ofrhz, eth0s, skitter}.

I know you don't have much time, but you should /v eth0s. The other two are town.

that's a really bold statement to make when you just suggested I could be town. So you are fine with Drixx scumreading 2 "town" and one potential town? pfft.

[eth0s]

@skitter

make sure you read this one

Spoiler: pg 15 to 16

@oxy - why sajj/eth0s and not sajj/drixx?

I'm really just speculating because it's fun, and because I'm waiting for others to post. I wouldn't really push this analysis until we had a sajj red flip, for instance.

So why do i speculate eth0s is scum!sajj's partner?

What would scum!sajj benefit from lynching you over eth0s for example?

I noted at the time that this could be Sajj spewing her partner. Of course, it could also be the exact opposite.

Drixx has no reason to lurk and eth0s is inactive in both of his games.

"Drixx has no reason to lurk" is too definite. It's like she knows that Drixx has no reason to lurk because scum lurks and Drixx isn't scum. On the other hand, "eth0s is inactive in both of his games." feels like cornered scum who checked his activity because she's frustrated he isn't here to help. Again, it could be the opposite. I will say, if Sajj flips scum as I expect her to, her partner is probably in these two. There's also like a 1/100 chance that her partner is Ruru, which is why she might have been overly cautious of that wagon. I don't subscribe to this theory, though. I don't really subscribe to any of these pre-flip.

Analyzing spew is an art, not a science.

Sajj is scum, though. I get more sure of that with every post she makes.

I like a lot of the thinking behind these posts but not so much the backpedaling on all your reasons for voting me when I'm "the best lynch option" or w/e

hey, maybe if you hadn't written a super ambiguous but intriguing post and then went MIA for over two days, you wouldn't come back to confusion.

why are you saying this to the guy that you're trying to convince to lynch me?

Interesting that you want to narrow the options down to a post on the first page or one of a series of posts you made preceding my post. Why are you trying to control the narrative like that?

lol what. You realize if you came back and simply said you weren’t referring to either of these posts, then my so-called attempt to control the narrative would fall apart instantly right?

Furthermore, your attempt to portray my question as anything other than intended purely for clarification implodes once you realize that I never tried to speculate any further about what you were trying to say. I was patiently waiting for you to come back and explain yourself in whatever way you wish.

Are you interested in answering my question? Or are you just throwing things around to see what sticks?
VOTE: Drixx

I didn't say

If, and ONLY if

which would need to be the situation for what you're pushing here.

Not to be a bother about logic, but your original statement was: if ofrhz = scum, then Oxy = scum. So then, if Oxy =/= scum, then ofrhz =/= scum by invoking the contrapositive.

I give towncred for this

@skitter

in your 388 you talk to ruru about her playstyle being pretty defensive and talk about how she only plays reactively. Well I could draw parallels to your gameplay. You haven't been playing reactively necessarily, but you mostly talk about ongoing stuff that isn't about you. There haven't been a lot of people going after you because you exude towniness, but I think that maybe you should force interaction with people if you think they are coasting. It doesn't have to be you calling them out but simply trying to understand people's reasoning (which you have done with ruru) is a plus. I'm not trying to call you out here, I'm kind of using you as an example. You haven't had to say much about things other than the 1v1, but when you do it has been thought-provoking stuff to help us look at people objectively. Major town points still. I do kind of wish you would help start a push, because people seem to trust you so far and your talent could be used to lead town.

I don’t really understand the eth0s votes, is he more likely to make this game a priority if we wagon him? Also are you guys comfortable with policy lynches?

I think I missed this question earlier. He posted 23 times in his other game today. I think pressure will result in him posting, him replacing, or him flipping.

sorry. I was gonna do both games and knew that one would be less time consuming, then I got a bunch of tasks thrown at me again.

Idk if I want to commit to hammering someone right now.

I feel like if I were scum this game, and neither my partner nor I were in {Oxy, Ofhrz, Ruru, Skitter30} my game plan would be to stall this day out as long as possible and make town scramble for a good lynch at the deadline. I think the counter play for this is to be just crazy enough to hammer 7 days before the deadline. I think if we're pressuring town!drixx he is experienced enough to find a way to show us town rather than get mislynched for inactivity in his IC game.

disagree

VOTE: Drixx

unannounced L-1??

ayyyy! That's L-1.

@Drixx Please post something pro-town.

scummy post!!

[eth0s]

Spoiler: pg 17

I need to think about oxy's approach to this wagon some more; it's making me a little bit nervous actually.

As you should. I think your unvote was smart.

don't unvote - no one in this game is stupid enough to lol hammer as town before hearing from drixx.

If someone were to lol hammer, you lynch them D2 with 100% chance they are scum

I think so too. It's also clear that it's L-1 so nobody can pretend it was a mistake.

well YOU didn't make it clear!!

Like I don't get why you've imposed a 24-hour deadline in which drixx has to speak or else he gets lynched when that cuts the day off short, before eth0s (and/or his replacement) and nsg do anything.

the more I read the more it really seems like scum!oxy could be getting impatient trying to lynch Drixx when he knows that he is essentially v/la. Seems scummy of Oxy.

[eth0s]

Oxy's tone has me concerned and also just how confident he is in there being no lolhammer. How are you so confident that no one will lolhammer that you wanna keep the (admittedly very busy) IC at L-1 for a long period of time? It is unsettling.

Spoiler: pg 18

Wait, I guess it is a belated followup to 371? OK, that makes slightly more sense

When is part 2?

yes. late but almost finished!!

About Drixx still a null read, I see no reason for his inactivity to be considered as alignment indicative and where I agree with him he still could have scum or town motivation to say those things, so I will reevaluted after flips if needed.

sajj essentially says that lynching Drixx is a bad idea today and I agree.

[eth0s]

This contains a question for NSG:

alright, i'm about 5 pages into the game, trying to go in-depth in this one because it seems like a pretty high-level newbie game from what i've seen so far. readslist as of page 5 is this:

{ruru, ofrhz}
{westen, Scioness Sajj, skitter30, Drixx}
{Oxy, eth0s}

don't consider the bottom to be "very strong scumreads" or vice versa for the top, it's just an ordered list.

i can elaborate on this if anyone cares but i don't think it's all that productive to go hugely into the reasons when it's still liable to change as i keep reading through. just feel like i should actually be providing content.

@northsidegal

why are skitter and pintu nullreads?

btw scum!me has virtually no reason to go back to oxy now, when people has moved on and are about to lynch lurkers. The only reason for scum!me to push back now would be if you were about to lynch my scum mate but that would mean second scum is in {drixxx, eth0s} but I'd gain towncred from bussing then getting myself into the spotlight for refusing to lynch a lurker.

scum!me would also benefit more from having a scum lean on ruru and me not doing it would me that ruru is scum. but then scum me would have no reason to go back to mislynching oxy isntead of going with a luker lynch.

talking about what scum!you would do really doesn't help us

[eth0s]

Page 20. Main takeaways are that Oxy is still trying really hard to be townread when she's not in any serious danger, and fully agree with pintu saying that this could be a "perfect time to strike" type deal for scum!sajj.
I am also concerned by NSG's lack of content and no one really cares. I believe drixx was also supposed to answer at least two or three questions that he never got to.

btw scum!me has virtually no reason to go back to oxy now, when people has moved on and are about to lynch lurkers. The only reason for scum!me to push back now would be if you were about to lynch my scum mate but that would mean second scum is in {drixxx, eth0s} but I'd gain towncred from bussing then getting myself into the spotlight for refusing to lynch a lurker.

scum!me would also benefit more from having a scum lean on ruru and me not doing it would me that ruru is scum. but then scum me would have no reason to go back to mislynching oxy isntead of going with a luker lynch.

And I have no problems with your posts in 477 and 479, but this one is terrible. Not only because the self awareness, but because you've been reading the thread, and you know that going back to Oxy RIGHT NOW is the best timing for doing it, since skitter stopped voting Drixx and started to have suspicions on Oxy's motivations. So you building a case on Oxy now is well-timed and a great scum strategy.

I liked this a lot more than 486. I like how 486 started but it seems a little weird after you voted sajj. Like you are trying to convince sajj that she needs to take a step back to see how Oxy plays but why do you care about this so much and then vote her? I know you have indecisive tendencies and I'm not trying to insult you for it, I just wonder if maybe you could give a really concise breakdown on why you think either of sajj or oxy is more likely to be scum. Because it seems like you think they're both scummy yet label it a tvs. At this point I think it's time to build a really good case and go with it (after thinking, of course).

[pinturicchio]

I'm reading everything you post, but I'll answer you after you fully catch up and see your own conclusions!

[northsidegal]

@northsidegal why are skitter and pintu nullreads?

skitter is null because i think a lot of her content is easily fakable as scum. do you think she should be somewhere else for me? why ask?

i put westen as null there because that readslist was meant to signify my reads as they formed from my catchup, and westen literally didn't post anything. if i were to speak in terms of my reads coming from what i've read of the recent pages (ie not from the catchup), i'd have pintu as a townlean.

[Oxy]

@Oxy - it's fine, don't worry about it. I'm missing from the gamestate part and I'm not sure what to make of it, why didn't you include me?

I didn't include you because you must be town. If you weren't town, you'd be someone I would refuse to associate with, and I don't want to entertain that line of thought. This will be the last time I respond to questions or comments about Sajj's alignment.

[eth0s]

page 21

I find it somewhat odd that this is being misunderstood multiple times. I thought Oxy was fairly clear. (Whether or not you think that town needs a polarizing leader type)

I'm still not really sure if I understand that tbh.

If Drixx is scum, and if all of Oxy's townbloc are town, and if all of Oxy's townbloc believe Drixx is town, then Drixx will be in a position to promote scummy agenda.

I feel like it is anti-town to post something that a) could plausibly affect the day 1 lynch and b) nobody understands, and then come back to the thread and just post something weird instead of explaining even though everyone is asking for an explanation. This is the kind of thing that wastes time and as mentioned already, wasting time does seem like a viable strategy for scum at the moment. Like it's not just lurking (and I've been null-reading Drixx all game).

It's anti-town but I don't think anti-town == scummy.

I'm having a really hard time with "lurking isn't scummy" + "posting in an anti-town manner isn't scummy".

same tbh

@skitter

can you elaborate?

First I'd like to apologize to Scioness Sajj. I tunneled on you and I took the fun out of the game for you as a result. I had no right to do that, and I'm immensely sorry.

Novel incoming. Game pretty much solved.

Spoiler:

This is how I see the game:
I had a lot of alarm bells ring in my head about Sajj. When I was writing my many different reasons for suspecting her, I knew I wasn't explaining what I was seeing very well. I figured that was partly why I wasn't getting traction with my town reads. I thought Scioness was being scummy enough, and that my cases were at getting you three thinking in the "right" direction enough that eventually you would come around.

When you, Skitter30, would explain why you disagreed, it was reasonable. I felt that the body of scummy behavior outweighed the explanations for individual acts of scummy behavior that you presented (e.g, english being her second language excusing misrepresentations), but I respected your method for weighing evidence and I wasn't going to argue that your pov was 100% wrong, because in each instance you weren't necessarily wrong. It turns out your explanations were reasonable because they were right.

When I continued to bring up that Scioness was being scummy, but without the case walls, it was exactly as you said, Skitter. I was trying to keep the idea at the front of your minds, and prompt you to reread her posts in the critical manner that I had. It turns out, I was also simply harassing someone in their first game as town.

So when she voted me with reads that makes sense in the first place, but were clearly picked directly from the posts of others, it seemed obvious to me that this was one of the only plays available to her as scum. I'm talking, of course, of the Ofrhz/Oxy theory. It also turns out to be exactly how new town would react. Here she is, being pushed on hard by the most active player, who is being town read first by most, and then by all, of the active players. Of course she is going to latch onto the only theory in the game for scum!oxy. I would.

And then I call her a good bullshitter. See, I think scum!Sajj actually takes that as a compliment. Bullshitting is a huge part of being scum. But from town!Sajj's position, I'm just coming in hot right after her many of her posts and saying it's shit. No wonder she's upset and feeling resentful.

And the crux of it all - those two posts. She knows how I feel about ruining someone's fun. She knows I'm going to feel awful if she accuses me of it. She's not going to do that just to win a game.
I'm very sorry, Sajj.

Gamestate

Spoiler:

This game is auto. Lynch eth0s, pin, NSG, and Drixx in that order and we win the game. My bet in 2 lynches, Almost certainly in three lynches, and certainly by 4 lynches. I'll be following the votes of my town reads within those 4. Okay I said certainly but there's probably a <10% chance that Skitter30 is scum, and <5% chance of either ruru ofrhz is scum and <<1% chance that both scum are within those 3.

Drixx could be scum, but I'm starting to doubt it upon reflection. I don't think he lies in a newbie game about his meta of being as active as he can be regardless of alignment. If it's not his meta, it's too easily refuted. If it is his meta, he's not throwing it away on a newbie game. So the lurking is actually NAI in his case.

So then what's with the posts? I have to believe that a man of 10 years forum mafia experience can come up with a less clearly anti-town post than that. Like, come on.

They're reaction tests, obviously. What's the most post efficient way to collect reads? What would you do to proactively collect reads if you can only post once every other day? It would take a week to have a simple conversation. A reaction test, on the other hand, is like a trap you lay and come back to.

way over confident. backpedaling. once again moving on to the lynch option that he sees most possible and apologizing to everyone that he needs on his side. It almost seems like too blatant of manipulation but I am 100% okay with lynching him today. Gonna get fully caught up first so I can see progression and votecount but yeah. Even if he's town we will get good info. I initially put too much stock into his game-solving ability, I think.

I'll be playing a much quieter game after that screw up. Ask me a direct question if you want my input. I think my post answers most things asked of me in the past few pages. If there is something else you want addressed, please repeat the question.

backpedaling/receding again before people have time to see how silly your game-solve was? hmm

This game is auto. Lynch eth0s, pin, NSG, and Drixx in that order and we win the game. My bet in 2 lynches, Almost certainly in three lynches, and certainly by 4 lynches. I'll be following the votes of my town reads within those 4. Okay I said certainly but there's probably a <10% chance that Skitter30 is scum, and <5% chance of either ruru ofrhz is scum and <<1% chance that both scum are within those 3.

Drixx could be scum, but I'm starting to doubt it upon reflection. I don't think he lies in a newbie game about his meta of being as active as he can be regardless of alignment. If it's not his meta, it's too easily refuted. If it is his meta, he's not throwing it away on a newbie game. So the lurking is actually NAI in his case.

I'm not a huge fan of this plan.

1. Why do you want to lynch NSG and Drixx unconditionally if you're not scumreading them and they haven't even really started talking?
3. I'm unconvinced that anyone is conftown on day 1 and this plan basically relies on people being conftown.
3. If one of your reasons for TRing skitter is that given her current playstyle she will be obvscum later by having to push poor lynches, but we already decided on those lynches, then I don't think the original logic applies.
Suppose scum is eth0s+skitter or pin+skitter and skitter busses her partner and then just gets to lylo automatically by following the plan (first 2 days would be 3 town + 1 scum dead, then day 3 2 more town die, then day 4 it's 3-way lylo unless PRs save us). And 3-way lylo seems like a big diceroll to me, especially if scum hasn't had to do anything scummy all game. I mean I guess it's 2/3rds win in theory but even that's assuming there are three 100% conftown.

So then what's with the posts? I have to believe that a man of 10 years forum mafia experience can come up with a less clearly anti-town post than that. Like, come on.

They're reaction tests, obviously. What's the most post efficient way to collect reads? What would you do to proactively collect reads if you can only post once every other day? It would take a week to have a simple conversation. A reaction test, on the other hand, is like a trap you lay and come back to.

I see what you're getting at here, especially if 254 was followed up by a post that clears things up. I still don't like 372.

@ruru how was it cleared up? can you link or explain this to me? still have a shroud of mystery around Drixx rn

I'm having a really hard time with "lurking isn't scummy" + "posting in an anti-town manner isn't scummy".

I don't really know how to explain this. Sometimes player do things that aren't pro-town (ie like lurking), but it isn't an inherently scummy behavior.

Think about it like this - if townies always behave in a pro-town fashion, scum wouldn't be able to push mislynches cuz everyone would be obvtown, right? The fact that mislynches even happen kinda implies that townies don't always play pro-town. Like in an ideal world, all townies should want to play in the most pro-town fashion possible, and scum should want to emulate that so that they don't stick out like a sore thumb, but in practice town don't always play optimally.

Like in practice, I've found that in general, lurking isn't a scumtell. It might be for some specific people (it is for me), but in general it's an 'I'm busy in real life' tell, or an 'I don't care about this game' tell. Like lurking, besides for specific meta cases, has not been directly correlated with being scum in my experience.

In recent past games:

Spoiler:

Mini 1963 - Lalendra was posting theories that were flat-out illogical and made no sense and got into a whole 1v1 over defending it. Scum pushed her - obviously being so irrational is a scumtell, right? Town couldn't be *that* clueless as to the actual gamestate. Scum quickhammered and she flipped town.

Later in Mini 1963 - wave decided to lie through MYLO mass-claim, we lynched scum, and when he claimed the next day, I didn't really believe it for a whole host of reasons. And when he claimed, he claimed odd-night vanilla cop although he was a full vanilla cop - and claiming full vanilla cop would have put the game on lock given the results we already had . He got into a role-based 1v1 with scum and got mislynched. I'm still annoyed about this one.

Micro 756 - Flubber was lurking cuz he was busy irl and blew up at people for pressuring him and started cursing out people. He almost got lynched for not being townie. I objected cuz I don't think 'not being townie' is the same thing as 'being scummy', and got myself scumread by the biggest proponent of the flubber wagon for my trouble. I was stubborn enough about it to prevent it from happening, I got nk'd and flubber got lynched in LYLO to lose town the game. The proponent of the flubber wagon was scum.

Open 711 - Sky decided it was a good idea to fake-claim cop in an open setup in MYLO. It appeared to be a 1v1 between him and the other dude who claimed cop. I believed the other dude, voted sky, and .... he flipped town. (The other dude was actually the cop, and sky was town and I don't get what he was thinking).

And so on. I can find a bunch of examples. Like all of these things are annoying and anti-town but I'm learning that they aren't *scummy* behavior.

tiny bit lamist but not really. good explanation. I'll take it.

[eth0s]

Sorry about that. Caught up now. Gonna give myself a break and go eat something. I will be back with a readlist and some lengthier discussion soon. Thanks for bearing with me.

[eth0s]

notes:

oxy is my top lynch priority

sajj is confusing me a bit

nsg concerns me a bit but I will give it a bit more time before I go into that more

pintu seems like typical pintu... he's a smart player who doubts himself too much sometimes. Although he may have hyped me up a little too much

skitter is the towniest player in here

ruru is townlean and I can't read her very well. could be null... idk it's a gray area

ofrhz is townlean

drixx is scumlean and I hope he is less busy soon so we can interact with him more.. he just recently hit prod range.

[eth0s]

I should have clarified that I am actually nullreading pintu

[Oxy]

what do you think about her having the opportunity to only talk about your 1v1?

I think I see where you are going with this, but my initial reaction is that it does not affect my read. I think that is my best read in this game, and I think that any read or discussion that Skitter pushes should pass the smell test. If they don't, I would consider it a scum claim.

[Oxy]

So you are fine with Drixx scumreading 2 "town" and one potential town? pfft.

I had no read (not null, literally no read) on Drixx at the time of this posting. Frankly, if he was willing to help me pressure a lurker into posting, he could /claim scum and I would still welcome his help. As to being "fine" with his reads - I didn't like his reads on my town reads, and I thought his read on you was about as good as my very slight scum lean on you. You were posting less than nothing, mate.

[Oxy]

why are you saying this to the guy that you're trying to convince to lynch me?

Because he too had posted less than nothing.

[Oxy]

Oxy's tone has me concerned and also just how confident he is in there being no lolhammer. How are you so confident that no one will lolhammer that you wanna keep the (admittedly very busy) IC at L-1 for a long period of time?

I respect everyone in this game enough to believe that none of you would lol hammer as either town or scum. not as town because that's anti-town, and not as scum because you would be policy lynched tomorrow 100%. Apparently some people don't agree that policy lynching would be the right move regardless of the flip, so maybe it wouldn't be wrong. The moral of the story is that if you have a policy of lynching lol hammer-ers, people stop lol hammering.

[Oxy]

but I am 100% okay with lynching him today.

You won't lynch me today.

[Oxy]

backpedaling/receding again before people have time to see how silly your game-solve was?

I'm just giving other people room to have fun, mate.

[Oxy]

why are you saying this to the guy that you're trying to convince to lynch me?

Because he too had posted less than nothing.

I read this too fast. At no point was I pushing for your lynch. People need to do some thinking and figure out the difference between being willing to threaten a lynch and follow through on that threat, and pushing a lynch.