Open 710: MKUltra - Foreign Spies Win!

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #900 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:43 am

I don't know, Spring hasn't even countervoted. Checking her 'last visited' date just shows a -.

Icon has been around since GiF's vote and so has Skitter, but they didn't post a series of posts like scum normally do when they're trying to coordinate both being on to drop the hammer.

So this probably means I'm wrong about Icon/Skitter being a team.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #901 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:47 am

So the only thing we really need to worry about is if GiF/Skitter is a team. This is only really plausible from the context of Skitter seemingly always wanting to lynch GiF but never really wanting to push for it.

GiF is like my only strong townread though.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #902 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:04 pm

I promised Skitter I'd reply to her posts (and Iso GiF) before voting, but I think by POE with Town!Gif and only one scum between (Skitter/Icon) that means Spring is scum.

Intent to hammer in a few hours or Icon can just go ahead and hammer if they get here before I finish ISO'ing GiF.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #903 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:06 pm

You know

I've been having that unvote thing in my clipboard

and have been F5ing furiously for first few hours of my vote.

But I saw no vote.

So I think this is it.

skitter30 · Post Post #904 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:07 pm

town!spring + scum!sky should be hammer.

scum!spring + scum!sky isn't necessarily an autohammer

town!spring + town!sky means the team is gif/ico and ico hasn't been around yet.

scum!spring + town!sky isn't an autohammer

Like the only way sky isn't clear from my POV is if it's one of the following:

1. scumteam of spring/sky; unlikely; I think he'd hammer for the cred tbh.

2. scumteam of gif/ico and ico hasn't been online yet; last visit was before my vote.

So yeah barring the two above scenarios, sky's town from my POV.

p-edit: yeah that's fine with me. lack of hammer to me means you're town or scum with spring or it's gif/ico and ico hasn't been online yet.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #905 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:43 pm

The Legend of GiF: Or, how a player can spam out nearly 200 posts over 37 pages.

VCA - On day 1, GiF was the champion of the RF mislynch. I've actually gone over this already in 685 when I first added GiF to my team-red pool when we were deciding between Icon/Alisae/GiF for red, so I will slightly rehash that post with updates for players we now know.

Spoiler:

So in summary, I don't find anything weird about GiF pushing the RF wagon and the only GiF/Skitter action I see is them arguing - briefly - about why policy lynching Not Mafia is a bad idea.

Day 2 ended with the Beefster mislynch.

Spoiler:

Difficult.
GiF argued extensively with Beefster and could easily have been on Beefster's wagon, but chose to be on Mikan's all alone, with nothing more than pleasing the dead. GiF thought Mikan was blue mafia, though.

Day 3 had the lynch of Alisae and the end of the red team.

Spoiler:

Main issue here is insistence that Alisae is blue scum as the basis for voting not!Alisae (Spring), and vote for Mikan doesn't seem quantified in any other way I can see.
GiF wasn't really pushing other players to vote for Spring like he was for Red Flavor. If Spring is scum, why not hammer Alisae? Sure it could be a bus on day 3, but being 'confirmed town' for hammering his buddy Spring, but it would just make him eat the nightkill from the other scum team to prevent 'confirmed town' making it to LYLO.

~~

Overall I am still leaning town on GiF however the re-read has shaken my town read a little bit. I think day 1 GiF looked super town, I have no issues at all with him pushing the RF lynch, and day 2 he still looks pretty good - he didn't avoid the Beefster wagon so much as attack Beefster personally. Day 3 says blue will not hammer, Spring hammers, calls it a scum hammer *shrug*.

If it's Spring/GiF, day 3 was a bus, but GiF stuck to it for a veeeeerry long time and forced his buddy to cross-hammer to save themselves. GiF had plenty of time and motivation to find a reason to vote Mikan, and had been wanting to do so since late day 2. Does scum!GiF have the patience to wait it out for somebody else to hammer Spring? Spring didn't appear to really push for anybody other than the unengaged-Sesq, and then Sesq flipped green, and really Spring only talked directly with GiF during day 3.

Icon had given his preferred lynches as Sky/Spring
Skitter had put her preferred lynches as GiF/Spring (with a preference on Spring)
Sky had put his preferred lynches as Spring and undecided between Skitter/Icon.
GiF had put his reads down on Spring/Skitter.
Spring's only read was GiF.

GiF put the first vote down. By this time everybody had expressed a willingness to lynch Spring. So maybe GiF felt forced to vote Spring because not enough people wanted to lynch Skitter, and Spring's made no effort to defend themselves or case anybody else. Because they've been gone for three days.

As I posted at the start of this:

Skitter/Icon - Plausible as Icon has not yet checked in since Skitter's vote (and will be 'impossible' if he checks in and no hammer).

Skitter/GiF - plausible as these are the only players who have voted so far.

Skitter/Sky - impossible: Sky has not hammered.

Skitter/Spring - plausible: anybody could be scum with Spring.

Icon/GiF - plausible: Icon has not yet checked in since Skitter's vote (and will be 'impossible' if he checks in and no hammer).

Icon/Sky - impossible: Sky has not hammered.

Icon/Spring - plausible: anybody could be scum with Spring and Icon hammering does not rule out Icon/Spring.

Sky/GiF - impossible: Sky has not hammered.

Sky/Spring - plausible: anybody could be scum with Spring.
Spring/GiF - plausible: anybody could be scum with Spring.

Possible teams worth considering are:
Skitter/GiF - split wagons on day 3 with token pokes back and forth day 2.
Skitter/Spring - refusal to hammer buddy on day 3, bus today.
Icon/Spring - refusal to hammer buddy on day 3, no response to GiF's vote on buddy.

Sky/Spring - refusal to hammer buddy on day 3, responses aplenty. Also I know I'm not scum ^_~

Spring/GiF - bus day 3, super bus day 4.

Worst case scenario if it is GiF-Spring, we are down a scum, and scum has to hit one of Sky/Skitter/Icon, making LYLO much easier.

Is it GiF-Skitter though.

Man at the start of this post I was so sure it was going to be GiF = auto town but now I'm so nervous I don't know.

I'll just hit post and grab a coffee. I'm obviously overthinking it at this point. I just assumed Spring is scum for a big chunk of this post and now the more I think about it if its Skitter-GiF then if I hammer it's GG. So now all I can see is Skitter-GiF.

Look I think Spring is scum. Both Icon and Skitter have posted a lot of content and their positions - even if I disagree with them - are clear. I'm sure one of Icon or Skitter is town because Icon/Skitter haven't been spamming to line up a hammer.

Sigh I'll take 5 minutes then have a look at what Skitter posted earlier.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #906 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:08 pm

In post 905, Sky_Paladin wrote:Day 3 says blue will not hammer

I believe I meant "scum quickhammer" there.

Like, "YOLO GG BOIZ" kind of scumhammer

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #907 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:11 pm

In post 905, Sky_Paladin wrote:It's not real clear why GiF decides to vote Mikan in 505 other than 'to please the dead' aka Tatl and Tael.

"Pleasing the dead" was just a front tbh.
It was actually that math-rep-out-post that pinged me very very hard.

I think I mentioned this eventually.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #908 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:15 pm

HOW THE HELL DO I HAVE THE MOST POSTS IN THIS GAME

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #909 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 5:45 pm

Responding to Skitter - there's a few main posts, so I'll take them one at a time.

Spoilered for everybody who is not Skitter because there's no scum hunting or anything relevant to anybody else probably

Spoiler:

But if you clicked anyway, have a cookie!!

Regardless;

856 main points from Skitter:
1 - If there's blue on the RF mislynch day 1, the only unflipped player is GiF, so by POE, that's GiF. Also that the Beefster mislynch, and the RF mislynch, both had all the red scum on it, and that if there's blue on the Beefster mislynch, it's Icon or Sky (and Skitter doesn't see Icon!Scum).
IMO this is kind of IIoA; yes if there are blue on the RF wagon, it has to be GiF, and if there was blue on the Beef wagon, it has to be Sky or Icon. But this is kind of a weak inductive reasoning because we first have to establish there was blue on either of those wagons.
Related to this, Skitter asks why I'm townleaning GiF - it's because there was no reason for GiF to push for the mislynch of RF unless his scum buddy was at risk. At the time, I thought that might have been Hawk who had flipped red and is the only reason I added Hawk to my red-pool on day 3. I mainly went into this in 685 when I highlighted the unvotes on Hawk - GiF and yourself had both voted Hawk at some point, but Icon explicitly compared Hawk to RF and then went so far as to say 'RF over Hawk'. So when Hawk flipped red, I saw Icon as the main suspect behind Hawk getting free day 1, because while GiF had provided the opportunity, every other player independently chose to follow him.

I was soft-town on GiF early in the game as suggested in 236 because he was engaging players and not just shitposting, and at that time I had no reason to re-evaluate outside of him voting Spring other than Alisae.

2 - Sesq-instead-of-Sky/GiF-nightkill discussion
At the time I voted for Alisae over Icon, I felt strongly the scumteam was Skitter/Icon. I felt that GiF or myself would be the obvious night kill choices because Spring/Sesq were basically non-existent (Sesq replacing out) and scum would want to shut down an active poster. GiF had been pushing the blue team as Mikan/Sky, but Mikan had just died and flipped red, while GiF had been pushing Spring as red. If I'd been killed off, it would set up day 4 with GiF having been caught on the wrong wagon (not trying to kill red) and scum!Skitter with an easy in to lynch GiF, "Hey look, you were wrong about Mikan/Sky, guess you're blue scum".
That's the extent I thought about it because I mainly was thinking welp guess it's Skitter/Icon, and if it's not me, it'll be GiF, and I already believed you two are scum so wouldn't be caught blindsided.

Also bolded almost sounds like you know I'm town - to mislynch town!GIF you'd need one townie on it, and it sounds like you think that's me. (and that by default scum is ico/spring if you're town, I'm town, and GIF is getting mislynched).

This might be a language thing. To me, a mislynch is anytime we lynch a non-scum player. If I'd died, to mislynch town!GiF, you'd need Sesq-slot (who had flipped town), plus scum!Skitter, and whichever one of Spring/Icon was scum at the time.

I feel like you're being kinda defensive of GIF? Or maybe that you're tying yourself to GIF?

The main thing that I like about GiF is even though he does post a lot of really small minimalistic posts, they are very rarely empty content posts and are always seeming to update the game state or push the game forwards in some way.
Like day 1 - the whole RF push. I can't see scum doing that unless it's to save a buddy and as has been overdone many times, he was not doing that.
Day 2 - standing out on the Spring wagon. If it was me I would have just hammered Alisae.
And although this is after that post - Day 3 - put down the first vote on Spring. It's super brave (and rare) for scum to put the first vote down IMO.

Moving on to 858

Icon/Skitter in lockstep:
I am going to take this comment back actually. I made it off the feeling from day 2 where I had cased and voted both you and Icon at some point, before switching to the melting-down-Beefster. But I accept that this was just my own feeling and that I didn't really quantify this.

A - E

A - I had read 851 where you asked Icon why I was your preferred lynch and inferred that I was also your preferred lynch. You did not explicitly state that I was your preferred lynch. So I was wrong on this point.
B - (re Sesq-desque) I guess it's irrelevant now if Spring is scum. Though why scum would kill her one scum read iiam. I don't know Firebringer - are they a good player? Maybe it was because they have a fearsome reputation or something. I don't know. night kill analysis is often wifom I suppose. I just thought - off the back of my earlier concern that GiF or myself would be the nightkill because scum-wants-to-kill-best-players having some meaning, surely killing Sesq who'd done basically nothing would have meaning too. I mean he was one of the only players townreading me at that point iirc (even if he just shit all over my posts) so I was like welp of course he died thanks scum, welp here comes the obvious mislynch on Sky from Icon and Skitter, and GiF won't even read my posts, ha ha ha rekt.
C - I initially scum read you because you gave Beefster crap for pushing against GiF on day 2, said that you scumread GiF but wouldn't vote there. When I pushed you on it during day 2 I felt that you were being evasive and not following up directly/pushing the conversation. Like you reacted to my questions but didn't push back. Conversely your responses in day 3 feel more probey, if that make sense. I actually feel like we're having a conversation whereas before it felt that you weren't interested in a conversation, at least, not with me. When I asked you to look at my case on Icon I expected you to be interested at least from any alignment but nothing happened.
I guess I thought I had set up something where 'something' could happen and I would get a good look at your alignment, but instead nothing happened. So I became 'OK, Skitter is scum with Icon' and that's probably where that all began.
D - OK.
E - At the time I thought it was fine because she was at L-1 and if I'm at L-1, I'd vote somebody else not-me-over-me.
The fact that they did it right after I had pointed it out was weird though. And now that we think she's scum? It strongly implies the other scum is one of Icon/Skitter/myself.

Looking for any lynch:
I had read twilight and seen you list 'Spring, gif, sky, icon, sesq, in that order' as your reads and remembered it as 'anybody who's not me' and thought 'huh'. Actually you had listed Spring ahead of me, so I was incorrect twice to state that I was your preferred lynch.

TL;DR - I was indeed misrepping Skitter at some points.

So I will apologise - I'm sorry for misrepping you.

Next up is 870 and I'll do that in it's own post.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #910 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:02 pm

Spoilered for walls for Skitter.

Spoiler:

I think that is probably everything except the fabricated reads comment which I'll go get to next.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #911 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:10 pm

Fabricated reads:

This is specifically because I felt your newb-town read on Icon was fabricated - specifically, copied from TD's 48. Much of what I have read for you justifying a town read on Icon has been because of this 'obv-newb-townness' which I don't see, and I would like for you to have placed a read on him outside of his experience. While doing my ISO of you I haven't seen this.

The other read I flagged as fabricated was your read on Hawk, high-lighted by this quote -

So that's a long way to say: Skitter's excuse for not being on the Hawk wagon was because she was scumreading Beefster more, but that's not consistent with her reads, and the drop of Hawk as a scum read seems weirdly timed.
This looks to me like somebody wanting to avoid being on the popular wagon for the day. I don't really feel that Skitter was town-reading Hawk (and she did not say that, she just said she was 'not interested').

Hawk is long dead so it doesn't matter.

I am interested in you solidifying your position in Icon however. From where I stand, it looks like one of you or Icon are scum.

I think I have probably responded to everything I promised to, and Icon still hasn't checked in. Well it has only been a few hours and there's no rush.

Intent to hammer

when I get up which is ~16 hours from now.

Iconeum · Post Post #912 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:15 pm

I was sick, back now.

Going to hammer, spring is scum, I'm still believing it's with Sky. We can figure that one out if we are correct about Spring.

VOTE: spring

skitter30 · Post Post #913 (ISO) » Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:47 pm

I really hope that it isn't ico/gif cuz that would mean I would have spent an age writing walls when the game was already over, but here goes.

@sky:

Spoiler:

Also if the game doesn't end I'm going to be v/la from Friday to Monday and I won't have internet access for most of that time so if I'm not like dead I won't post till Sunday night or Monday like at all.

Viomi · Post Post #914 (ISO) » Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:05 am

VOTE COUNT

springlullaby

(1) (LYNCH) - GuyInFreezer, skitter30, Iconeum

Not Voting:

Sky_Paladin, springlullaby

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

A lynch has been achieved!

Flip incoming.

Viomi · Post Post #915 (ISO) » Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:15 am

Ability to discern foreign units... well...

springlullaby's Russian passport falls out of her pocket as she is dragged away. She was a

Foreign Spy

.

We'll say one out of two, for now.
Ability to discern citizens not under the effect of the drug... One out of two, as sadly the spies got to the only other member of the actual control group.. But they probably would've found them anyways.

Willingness to kill enemy spies and even innocent civilians... Double check.

These results are

very

appealing. I'm sure the president will agree..

Night Five ends in (expired on 2018-03-30 05:00:00)

Viomi · Post Post #916 (ISO) » Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:21 pm

I'm extending the night a couple days as it seems several of you are V/LA for Easter weekend. We shall resume Monday. If anybody would like me to start Day Five now, please PM me.

Viomi · Post Post #917 (ISO) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:36 am

By the way, have any of you been experiencing any abnormal dreams?

Well, of course you have, you're under constant threat of death every night. Looks like we'll have to do another test, but this time without killing you all..

Oh, good morning, by the way. You may have noticed your friend Iconeum is dead. Why, you seem to be rather glad about this. Do you not find it morbid, to be happy by the death of a fellow citizen? Perhaps you are just glad to be alive...

Iconeum was part of the

Control Group (Vanilla Town)

.

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #918 (ISO) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:10 am

Hmm.

I can't see any reason that scum!Skitter would kill Icon; I would have thought her natural kill would have been myself or GiF as we're both loudly suspicious of her slot and townreading each other. So scum!Skitter makes no sense for her hitting Icon since it would basically be suicide.

I don't see why scum!GiF would hit Icon either. Surely he would have killed me - I'm not sure on his position on Icon; but he'd been suspicious of Skitter - leaving me up as one of the people townreading him does make sense though.

At the moment I'm leaning scum!Skitter as more plausible than scum!GiF but it's late and I'm going to sleep. I'll re-read my walls from the previous day phase and colour things in now we know Spring is blue.

skitter30 · Post Post #919 (ISO) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:14 am

First time being in 3-way lylo, so this will be interesting.

I'm very probably going to be voting GIF because I think sky is probably town, and I haven't really been townreading GIF at any point this game.

Sky, can you give me a tldr why you scumread me? And a tldr why you townread GIF?

I think scum!sky probably wins the game so long as ico wasn't here cuz me/gif are townreading him, but ico thought sky was scum. But I'm kinda townreading sky though; I don't really think he's scum.

Gif said he was townreading sky and thought it was spring + one of {me/ico}.

I kinda think GIF has sky pocketed and wanted sky in lylo cuz it doesn't really look like sky has ever really been open to considering the possibilty of scum!GIF; he's been townreading him fairly consistently.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #920 (ISO) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:57 am

Blitz voting in 24 hours.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #921 (ISO) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 11:00 am

(expired on 2018-04-03 18:00:52)

Sky_Paladin · Post Post #922 (ISO) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:08 pm

@Skitter my OG reason for scum reading you was because you pressured Beefster for voting GiF when you had done essentially the same thing. After that, the next problematic thing was what felt like a refusal to see Icon as scummy because he was new; I would have infinitely preferred you pointing out some reason for him to be town e.g. in post x Icon did y and that is town because z. It's much harder for me to sympathise with a feeling when I don't have that same feeling.

However having had a chance to sleep on it and remembering the game state, my current thought is that day 3, GiF stuck hard for a Spring wagon, and on day 4 he was the first person to vote Spring. Sure, we had all at some point chimed in that Spring was our preferred lynch, but GiF was the first person to vote. While I could see GiF bussing Spring in the previous day phase, I don't think it makes sense in the context of GiF bussing Spring for a good chunk of day 3 as well. There was every opportunity for him to have lynched Alisae without risking his team mate.

I kinda think GIF has sky pocketed and wanted sky in lylo cuz it doesn't really look like sky has ever really been open to considering the possibilty of scum!GIF; he's been townreading him fairly consistently.

This however is a possibility so I am interested in seeing GiF's thoughts on why he has actually town read me.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #923 (ISO) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:50 pm

In post 919, skitter30 wrote:I kinda think GIF has sky pocketed and wanted sky in lylo cuz it doesn't really look like sky has ever really been open to considering the possibilty of scum!GIF; he's been townreading him fairly consistently.

I actually prefer ambiguity in LyLo over pocketing as scum. Especially when I know town-Sky would roll his head around like crazy until the last moment for every possibilities.

GuyInFreezer · Post Post #924 (ISO) » Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:54 pm

Like, me being scum means:

1. I softed a doc claim day-flipping-1 to draw nightkill for ????
2. I didn't join the beef wagon Day 2, which I could've easily and still get away with it, for ???
3. Draw aggro like crazy during first 1.5 days, for ????
3. I went for spring over Alisae, bussing my partner with other scum alive for ????
4. I killed Ico, whom I could've kept for lylo ambiguity, for ???

Man I must be the worst scum player in mafiascum in history.