Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[northsidegal]

if you're speaking to me with that first line – it's fine, my feelings aren't hurt, i've seen worse than a vote on me.

with regards to the second line, i'm pretty sure it would be a statistical fallacy for me to use his replace out and the scum SE replacement rate as a reason to scumread him, but i think perhaps my reasons earlier for townreading the replace out weren't very good.

it's unfortunate – eth0s was one of my other top scumreads and a replacement likely wouldn't get enough time to put enough out there to potentially change my mind.

[Oxy]

I was speaking to Drixx, but let me reiterate the sentiment for both you and Eth0s. =)

[Oxy]

Thoughts on Eth0s:

In post 74, ofrhz wrote:
In post 63, eth0s wrote:
In post 58, ofrhz wrote:
@eth0s - what made you change your mind about ruru's motivations between these two posts?
where did I change my stance?

Post 33 you say that ruru was probably not trying to look town based on her actions from earlier and there was not enough info at this time. I take this to mean that you think her earlier actions were NAI.
Post 36 Sajj says her initial assessment of ruru’s actions seems like forced lamist which could be AI
Post 45 suggests you agree with Sajj’s assessment but someone can’t at once not be trying to look town and lamist, the two are contradictory

Oh that's because I don't think she was trying to look town, I think she was trying to look "so town" or in other words I think LAMIST was part of her plan. Hopefully that makes sense.

This did not make sense to me. I asked about it but it was never answered. Here is post 33 for reference:

Townleaning Oxy. I can understand why ruru would vote me based on her stated reasoning but I also think that someone that visited two hours ago is just as likely to be active again soon as someone that visited 10 hours ago. If I was active like 10 minutes beforehand, that would be one thing.

Still, I don't really see it as an attempt by ruru to make herself look townie, and I disagree with Oxy's townreading her for it. I figured it was a reaction test or something but that would have fallen apart by now, it seems. There's not much info to work with yet.

VOTE: WestenVOTE:
Post.

I really like posts 430,509,511, and especially 523. He asks some good questions, shows reasonable lines of thought.

527 still good, really all of the catch up is good until i say otherwise.

@skitter in your 388 you talk to ruru about her playstyle being pretty defensive and talk about how she only plays reactively. Well I could draw parallels to your gameplay. You haven't been playing reactively necessarily, but you mostly talk about ongoing stuff that isn't about you. There haven't been a lot of people going after you because you exude towniness, but I think that maybe you should force interaction with people if you think they are coasting. It doesn't have to be you calling them out but simply trying to understand people's reasoning (which you have done with ruru) is a plus. I'm not trying to call you out here, I'm kind of using you as an example. You haven't had to say much about things other than the 1v1, but when you do it has been thought-provoking stuff to help us look at people objectively. Major town points still. I do kind of wish you would help start a push, because people seem to trust you so far and your talent could be used to lead town.

I love this. I'm not saying it can't be faked, but this just exudes town for me. Could also have been an attempt to pocket skitter i guess, but it's definitely a pro town use of words.


Actually, on reread, I'm loving him all the way through from the moment he began his catch-up. His questions, observations all seem consistent from a town perspective. This catch-up looks like a difficult effort if coming from scum. I'm not sure scum would put in that effort just to replace out a few days and 7 pages later?

[Oxy]

Oh god that didn't work at all. Here is corrected formatting...Thoughts on Eth0s:

Spoiler:

In post 74, ofrhz wrote:
In post 63, eth0s wrote:
In post 58, ofrhz wrote:
@eth0s - what made you change your mind about ruru's motivations between these two posts?
where did I change my stance?

Post 33 you say that ruru was probably not trying to look town based on her actions from earlier and there was not enough info at this time. I take this to mean that you think her earlier actions were NAI.
Post 36 Sajj says her initial assessment of ruru’s actions seems like forced lamist which could be AI
Post 45 suggests you agree with Sajj’s assessment but someone can’t at once not be trying to look town and lamist, the two are contradictory

Oh that's because I don't think she was trying to look town, I think she was trying to look "so town" or in other words I think LAMIST was part of her plan. Hopefully that makes sense.

This did not make sense to me. I asked about it but it was never answered. Here is post 33 for reference:

Townleaning Oxy. I can understand why ruru would vote me based on her stated reasoning but I also think that someone that visited two hours ago is just as likely to be active again soon as someone that visited 10 hours ago. If I was active like 10 minutes beforehand, that would be one thing.

Still, I don't really see it as an attempt by ruru to make herself look townie, and I disagree with Oxy's townreading her for it. I figured it was a reaction test or something but that would have fallen apart by now, it seems. There's not much info to work with yet.

VOTE: WestenVOTE:
Post.

I really like posts 430,509,511, and especially 523. He asks some good questions, shows reasonable lines of thought.

527 still good, really all of the catch up is good until i say otherwise.

@skitter in your 388 you talk to ruru about her playstyle being pretty defensive and talk about how she only plays reactively. Well I could draw parallels to your gameplay. You haven't been playing reactively necessarily, but you mostly talk about ongoing stuff that isn't about you. There haven't been a lot of people going after you because you exude towniness, but I think that maybe you should force interaction with people if you think they are coasting. It doesn't have to be you calling them out but simply trying to understand people's reasoning (which you have done with ruru) is a plus. I'm not trying to call you out here, I'm kind of using you as an example. You haven't had to say much about things other than the 1v1, but when you do it has been thought-provoking stuff to help us look at people objectively. Major town points still. I do kind of wish you would help start a push, because people seem to trust you so far and your talent could be used to lead town.

I love this. I'm not saying it can't be faked, but this just exudes town for me. Could also have been an attempt to pocket skitter i guess, but it's definitely a pro town use of words.


Actually, on reread, I'm loving him all the way through from the moment he began his catch-up. His questions, observations all seem consistent from a town perspective. This catch-up looks like a difficult effort if coming from scum. I'm not sure scum would put in that effort just to replace out a few days and 7 pages later?

[Oxy]

@Northsidegal I really hope you didn't miss this =(

What are your thoughts on eth0s, NSG? You said earlier you couldn't verbalize why you found his catch-up scummy. Think you would have more luck now?

[Scioness Sajj]

VOTE: Ruru

Her naked vote on Drixx stands out. It was pretty opportunistic to me and I find her reasoning rather weak in comparison to all her other posts. I have talked about it ealier, I can add more if needed.

I didn’t like her reaction to ofrhz’s vote. She said she didn’t understand the vote 699 and she doesn’t think she has been acting scummy 730 but it didn’t change her read on ofrhz 705 nor did she ask why he voted her.

She voted somebody else/made a case after somebody voted her. 260 , 727. Trying to move attention somewhere else.

She has changed her opinion on why she was pushing skitter. First she was suspicious because of the fast unvote 609, later she said that it was not the unvote but skitter misunderstanding the situation727.

She talked about skitter not playing optimally as scum 609 and made in depth analysis of Oxy’s post 507. Yet she only votes lurkers for pretty on the surface level scummy reasons.

Her vote on NSG gave me all kinds of bad vibes. I don’t know how ruru missed NSG’s read on Oxy and NSG convo with ofrhz about that vote. I also don’t like Ruru’s reasoning from later posts:

“Yes, I think it's a bit in the "wow, that sucks" category and I feel like a town player who believes that something is hurting her win% would be more motivated to understand why things are that way and how to improve the situation.”
“NSG first tried to get others to vote in 716. After that, she jumped on the Oxy wagon herself. Her timing seems opportunistic to me.”

skitter is V/LA, and I don't feel like voting on her would be that productive right now anyway because she already gave a defense and it doesn't make sense to lynch anyone before hearing more from Drixx/NSG.

We were four days away from the deadline at that time. In 708 (two days before 747) Drixx promised he would most likely made more posts that night, he didn’t.
She was okay putting Drixx at L-1 earlier in the game when we are close to end of the day, it is totally fine for her to wait for Drixx. That’s stalling.

I don’t like 761.
Ruru quotes ofrhz’s part of post that was address to everybody, but mentioned her, and uses it as an excuse to defend Oxy and give another explanation of her vote on NSG.
She also mentions that we

still

have around three more days.
From her readlist - Drixx is apparently less suspicious now then he was before even though he didn’t post anything since 708 - I think she put him higher because of people’s reaction to her vote earlier.

About my convo with her on the last pages.
I have actually misunderstood her with one part. I forgot that I have explained to her again my thoughts of that wagon so I thought that she addressed it on her own.
Still from what I have understood - Ruru was voting Drixx for both pressure and lynch and she believed that people would be there in time to unvote if Drixx made a towny post.
Ruru didn’t really tell me anything that makes me question my first analysis of that wagon.

[Oxy]

@sajj You're still scumreading me, right? How likely is it that Ruru + Oxy are the exact scum team?

[Scioness Sajj]

@sajj You're still scumreading me, right? How likely is it that Ruru + Oxy are the exact scum team?

I'm not sure where I would put you if I had to make a readlist tbh. 504 is a turning point for me, depending on what you post I lean one way or another.
Earlier, you have posted some things that make me believe in your ate more. But then you disappeared from the game and came back with vote on NSG. I wouldn’t scum read you for trying to save yourself but I didn’t like your answer.
817 also makes me doubt you more again, because if that’s spot on where was your actually good push on me?

I don’t know how likely it is. There is a lot of connections between you and her, but my read comes from her posts alone. Her reaction to ofrhz’s vote pinged me, I looked more into that wagon and I started paying more attention to her.
I’m not interested in wifoming team possibilities right now. I will think about it after she flips.

If I had to compromise I'd vote you over {Drixx, NSG, Eth0s, skitter, ofrhz}. I’d consider voting Pin if somebody was to make a good case (I didn’t like his point about eth0s) but I want to see Ruru flip.

[Scioness Sajj]

I'm referring to Pin's explanation about his eth0s read.

[Scioness Sajj]

If lynch order isn't clear: ruru > oxy > pin > drixx, eth0s, nsg > skitter > ofrhz.

[Oxy]

Interesting, thank you!

[pinturicchio]

I'm referring to Pin's explanation about his eth0s read.

What explanation? The last one I did about nullreading him now that he's replacing out?

[Scioness Sajj]

I have thought about it some more and ruru+you is likely because of connection, but scum ruru connecting herself to you because she had made that decision on her own is also likely. It can also be scum ploy. There is nothing that makes either of those possibilities unlikely and I lack information to measure which of those has higher probability than others.

I have looked for possible scum mate for you earlier and it was bad, biased idea that created a lot of confusion and mostly wasted time. Is oxy+ofrhz possible? Yeah it is, but you with other people could also be possible and betting on one of those and disregarding others because there are little things that could connect you both isn't good way to scum hunt for me.

[Scioness Sajj]

@pin yeah that one. I also need you to answer my posts to you when you will have time. If you will explain those things I'm asking for it will be easier for me to sort you.

[pinturicchio]

@pin yeah that one. I also need you to answer my posts to you when you will have time. If you will explain those things I'm asking for it will be easier for me to sort you.

Wait, what posts?

[Scioness Sajj]

One post, sorry. 721 I don't think you have answered that one.

[Scioness Sajj]

About your after replacement eth0s read. I wish you didn't mention that pr part. Not really scum reading you for it just eh.

[skitter30]

@nsg, 782 - I think I was mainly getting that vibe from 537 - it felt to me like you were following along enough to respond to direct questions to you but weren't really talking about anything else, so it felt to me like you were selectively engaging with the thread and kinda avoiding the main topics of the day, a lot of which happened *after* you replaced in. Like I felt like you're different from eth0s and drixx because they weren't here *at all*, whereas you were around but not really talking about the major events of the day.

I guess maybe I'm expecting too much? Idk.

UNVOTE:

for now.

----------

@drixx, 796- I think it might be useful for you to share what you were thinking about people's reactions to your posts; it would def help me get a sense of what you're thinking about the game.

----------

@drixx, 806 - I've been specifically saying this entire game that I don't think that your being absent is inherently AI? That's where the whole drixx-wagon-unvote thing came from. At the same time, I do remember that past game where you were kinda avoiding the game in order to wait for another game to end so that you could use a meta-defense, but although this game *reminds* me of that game, I concluded that game was sufficiently different from this one that that meta isn't particularly helpful here and that it isn't a reason to scumread you.

I don't understand where you think I've been saying you're scum here because of that game.

Also I don't get how you can possibly characterize my play as 'you can't remember much else game-related from me'.

817 - I was going to say that I don't think you're qualified judge my scumgame, but then I remembered 1787 lol. I kinda think you're overestimating my scumgame tbh though (that's like my one and only good scumgame on site). But 817 gives me bad vibes - kinda feels like you're trying to undermine oxy's read on me almost? I don't know how to explain why it bothers me exactly. Or maybe you actually think I'm that good at scum, idk.

----------

I don't think eth0s' replaceout was AI tbh. I think he was just busy irl; he was telegraphing the replace-out for like a week.

----------

I don't really know where I want to vote right now.

I'm very confident that ofrzh is town.

I think that eh0s-slot and scioness are more-likely-than-not-town.

I don't have a good read on NSG or Drixx.

I gut townread pin.

Ruru I'm kinda gutscumleaning but I like some of her individual posts and her thought process reminds me of my own so I'm conflicted.

Oxy, eh, I'll just say it. I am scumreading him but I think that he softed in 667 and 547 and I do think that'll get resolved via night actions and/or claims (NSG, it's a newbie game with a semi-open setup and if he isn't like dead soonish yeah I'm going to visit it the day before LYLO if I'm alive cuz I don't want a repeat of that open game we played) and I don't think it's a good idea to wagon him right now.

----------

I've only skimmed this page, but haven't really read it yet; I'll get there in a bit, possibly tomorrow.

[Assemblerotws]

Vote Count 1.14

Oxy [3]:

eth0s, Drixx, northsidegal [L-2]

northsidegal [2]:

ruru, Oxy

Scioness Sajj [1]:

pinturicchio

ruru [1]:

Scioness Sajj

Not Voting [2]:

ofrhz, skitter30

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2018-04-05 09:00:00) on

April 5, 2018

.

Seeking replacement for eth0s.

[pinturicchio]

One post, sorry. 721 I don't think you have answered that one.

Ooooh I remember reading that after waking up and couldn't understand a thing about the first quote and I was like "damn, I don't know how to say that I didn't understand without looking like an idiot" haha; that, added to the fact that I got really tired with our back and forth posts and that I was only phone posting by that time made me completely ignore that post. I'm sorry Scioness but I already said my scumread on you is partially because your 1v1 with Oxy and MAINLY because of PoE.

And speaking about PoE... I HAD TO talk about my read on eth0s. I've been very "misterious" about my read on him to follow his strategy and now that I see it wasn't a strategy but being busy IRL, my read on him changed drastically. I can't go and say "hey guys I've been hard townreading eth0s this game but now that he's replacing out I'm no longer townreading him" without any explanations at all; people would think I'm nullifying my read because of the replacement itself and that's not it. And changing my read on eth0s is a big deal for me, because my PoE shattered a little with one less townread. That means that my read on you is now worse just because he replaced out, and that's a bummer.

One more thing about you: I think you towned it up after getting off the 1v1 with Oxy; you asking me questions constantly gave me a hard time and I find a little odd that you focused on the only person scumreading you instead of focusing on others, but there's something important in that statement: I'm the only one scumreading you, and that could be either because you have a scumpartner reluctant to jump on your wagon or because you are indeed playing like town and I got too biased because of the 1v1 with Oxy; I really don't know which one is the correct answer, but being the only one makes me believe I'm just very very wrong.

[pinturicchio]

Now, about talking of softclaims...
VOTE: skitter30

[Assemblerotws]

Mathdino replaces eth0s!

[skitter30]

Now, about talking of softclaims...
VOTE: skitter30

I neither understand what this means nor why you're voting me. I'm explaining why I'm not voting my biggest scumread.

Also did you ever explain why you're scumreading me in the first place, which I asked about a few pages back?

Hey math!

[pinturicchio]

Now, about talking of softclaims...
VOTE: skitter30

I neither understand what this means nor why you're voting me. I'm explaining why I'm not voting my biggest scumread.

Also did you ever explain why you're scumreading me in the first place, which I asked about a few pages back?

Hey math!

Skitter, I've explained multiple times my reads, please don't make me do it again. If you have any doubt, be more specific.

[Scioness Sajj]

844 Pin
I have been asking so much becuase a lot of your conclusions appear unclear to me. E.g. you said that I have made my case on Oxy without all information because I didn't know anybody's alignemnt in the game at that time.
And that's true becuase I don't but if you were scumreading me I don't think that's a conclusion you would make.

He could have been acting the way he did because of being pr and have to replace because of lack of time, I guess. I mean I get why you said that but I just wish you could have leave the pr part out.

I was asking you questions because I didn't understand where your conclusion came from. Knowing why you think the way you do would make it easier for me to get a read. At the time I have also been talking with other players, so I wasn't really focused on you.

Why are you voting Skitter over Ruru? What do you think of my case on Ruru?