Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Scioness Sajj]

This vote is so bad though.

Thanks.

[Mathdino]

We are not lynching skitter. We will lynch skitter if she doesn't get nk by day three.

Couldn't find it in Google - what's exactly a scumrange?

skitter's not going to get nightkilled by day 3 though

[Scioness Sajj]

Because?

[Mathdino]

a better question: why DOES she get nightkilled by D3?

her reads are inaccurate, her walls make the game harder to read through, and she spends the majority of her time not voting or pressuring anyone

why would scum choose to nightkill skitter30

[ofrhz]

why did you go with skitter over drixx

[skitter30]

Ok, before that happens I want to make a post detailing exactly what my reads are and another going through this wagon.

Also @math: saying that you want to no-lynch or vote drixx and then falling back on me when that idea gets some resistance after you say that my posts are kinda townie and after I say I'm fine with it is not exactly a good look.

Or tldr: why exactly are you voting me and not drixx right now?

[Mathdino]

because the fact that i'm PoEing myself out of scumreads and the fact that i'm not going to parse this entire thread before the deadline hits means i have 2 options

1. literally run anyone up
2. try to play "optimally"

in this case, skitter is a more optimal lynch than drixx

[Scioness Sajj]

She is the most hard working person here and has been really objective.

You all wanna lynch her because she freaked out and unvoted. And she did that after she saw drixx wagon got to l-1 in 20 minutes.

I don't understand how can you say her reads are inaccurate when you have that bs scum lean on me and you are sheeping NSG.

[Mathdino]

skitter does it look like i care what a good look is

if you wanna scumread me for saying the taboo words "no lynch" it's your funeral

like this is a case where pulling a #teachingmoment might genuinely be anti-town

[skitter30]

Fine, whatever. I don't really have time to detail this before deadline.

Just don't lynch me before I lay out exactly what my reads are cuz I'm going to flip town and hopefully you guys will pay some amount of attention to that. (Ie I can do this in a few hours from now)

Also after I flip town I want everyone (cough math) reconsider oxy cuz his posts are incredibly pocket-y and just feel fake.

[Scioness Sajj]

Ruru is more optimal lynch or Oxy or even me imo. People have the most polarizing opinions about us three I believe.

Drixx lynch would be low info lynch I think. That's also no good.

[Drixx]

Actually I'm not sure you have come to the right conclusion RE: optimal choice. If you're limiting strictly to just {Skitter, Drixx} that is.

[Mathdino]

She is the most hard working person here and has been really objective.

You all wanna lynch her because she freaked out and unvoted. And she did that after she saw drixx wagon got to l-1 in 20 minutes.

I don't understand how can you say her reads are inaccurate when you have that bs scum lean on me and you are sheeping NSG.

don't white knight

you can be hardworking and still make the game harder

everyone in this game has such a massive balls to the wallpost ISO that i could easily make that argument about anyone

i'm townreading the majority of the drixx wagon. freaking out and unvoting is basically NAI

and those 2 statements aren't even related

her reads are inaccurate because she's scumleaning NSG which i'm almost positive she's wrong on (and she admitted i'm more likely to be right)

she's apparently at some point scumread oxy, and finds posts that are town indicative to be scum indicative

and i never even stated a scumlean on you, don't give me that

it's actually hilarious how much aggression i've gotten from townreading enough people to create a 3 person PoE pool

[Drixx]

Ruru is more optimal lynch or Oxy or even me imo. People have the most polarizing opinions about us three I believe.

Drixx lynch would be low info lynch I think. That's also no good.

You should re-think what you would learn from me flipping green.

Of course ... you specifically called me a low info lynch and a lynch is only evaluated on how much info it gives if it doesn't flip red. That implies you know I'm town.

Got a slip here I think.

[Drixx]

I mean ... I don't know you really mathdino (unless I do and don't realize it), but you seem remarkably confident that you have things figured out on day one when the only thing a town!you could know with certainty is your own role. I would say irrationally confident even.

So when you make a series of proclamations about reads which results in you saying the folks who were voting me way back when were basically all town and therefore I have some high probability of being scum, and I know I'm not, it should be pretty obvious why I would push back.

But I mean ... it's mafia. The rhetoric gets aggressive. Nobody has gone after anyone on a personal level. Maybe don't go looking to be insulted and you won't feel like people are being super aggressive? It's just a game after all.

[ofrhz]

I'm just going to play follow the leader

mathdino- can you please pick one of Drixx, Sajj, and ruru, so I can vote and get back to work? really not interested in lynching anyone else

pedit: sajj's "I think" was her escape clause

[Oxy]

Like eli5 why you're scumreading me right now.

I'm going to use this as a catch all for your questions, and if I miss one oh well.

You stopped playing a pro-town game, or at least I started noticing it, about a day after the Drixx wagon. anti-town things:

Your reaction and intransigence in your read on drixx wagon
Calling out what you perceived as a soft claim
not shutting up about what you perceived as a soft claim when other people clearly weren't seeing what you saw, or were ignoring it
Being begged by both Eth0s and I to help lead town and just... not. For days and days since the drixx wagon you were in the best position to move town in a positive direction and you spent it throwing shade at someone you were unwilling to vote because you thought they had soft claimed.

I'm also scum reading you because
1) PoE
2) The game made sense to me until the Drixx wagon, then a lot of the game stopped making sense for a long time. What changed? Everyone else's play either made sense or stayed consistent in my eyes. When the game doesn't make sense to me, I often find in retrospect that it was because a scum is misdirecting it.
3) PoE, again. From my PoV, your scum equity is really high.

p.edit there are like 8 new posts. not reading them yet, just posting.

[Mathdino]

whatever, drixx, NSG, and probably pintu would all have caught that

skitter30 softclaimed VT by asking to be lynched instead of no lynch. It's pretty fucking definitive unless she's actively trying to WIFOM the nightkill (a possibility she should obviously not acknowledge if that's her goal).

The Few Cases In Which No Lynch Is Optimal:

1. When you're in evens, there's no confirmed town or possibility of confirmed town, and you need to narrow the lynchpool. For example, 1 scum vs 3 VTs? No Lynch.

2. When you have a setup breaking plan and lynching someone doesn't actually help with that.

3. When the setup is such that town can gain information faster than scum can.

This setup (along with most newbie setups) is essentially won by keeping both PRs alive until D2. The game gets hilariously easy by that point if they're both alive. Like, it's hard to lose.

The difference between this setup and Matrix6 is the density of investigative TPRs. 7/9 setups have investigatives. The remaining 2 have Jailkeeper, a pseudo-investigative.

If there's reason to believe scum is likely to kill a VT, then yeah, I think unfortunately No Lynching is beneficial if only to avoid running up PRs and pulling claims and counterclaims. In this setup, it's ironically MORE information for town.

That said, the fact that skitter30 just softclaimed VT (removing her from the nightkill pool) as I was JUST talking about no lynching (smh) means it's outright mechanically dangerous to run anyone else up. Given that I'm not solid on her alignment, it's optimal FMPOV to just lynch the VT and gain information that way.

[pinturicchio]

@math: saying that you want to no-lynch or vote drixx and then falling back on me when that idea gets some resistance after you say that my posts are kinda townie and after I say I'm fine with it is not exactly a good look.

Also after I flip town I want everyone (cough math) reconsider oxy cuz his posts are incredibly pocket-y and just feel fake.

Soooo what's your read on Dino? Because first you throw some shade saying that his push on you could make him look scummy, and then you tell everyone and specifically Dino to reconsider his read on Oxy...

[Drixx]

I'm just going to play follow the leader

mathdino- can you please pick one of Drixx, Sajj, and ruru, so I can vote and get back to work? really not interested in lynching anyone else

pedit: sajj's "I think" was her escape clause

Doesn't change the underlying knowledge/thinking that leads to the conclusion. Tacking on "I think" doesn't take much away from the certainty on display, imo.

[Oxy]

I think Ofrhz was being supppper sarcastic there Drixx....

[Drixx]

I think Ofrhz was being supppper sarcastic there Drixx....

Ahhh ... didn't pick up on it. I'm sometimes too rational. On the plus side I finally feel connected to this game .

[Oxy]

Welcome to the game =)

[Mathdino]

Ruru is more optimal lynch or Oxy or even me imo. People have the most polarizing opinions about us three I believe.

Drixx lynch would be low info lynch I think. That's also no good.

You should re-think what you would learn from me flipping green.

Of course ... you specifically called me a low info lynch and a lynch is only evaluated on how much info it gives if it doesn't flip red. That implies you know I'm town.

Got a slip here I think.

see it's posts like this that make me wanna lynch drixx
scumslips like this just don't happen
a remarkable number of posts in drixx's ISO use tells that don't work, and it's generally outside of his capacity as an IC so it's not just him being a shit IC

ask me if you want elaboration i guess, i'm still working out whether i care enough to actually run drixx up

I mean ... I don't know you really mathdino (unless I do and don't realize it), but you seem remarkably confident that you have things figured out on day one when the only thing a town!you could know with certainty is your own role. I would say irrationally confident even.

So when you make a series of proclamations about reads which results in you saying the folks who were voting me way back when were basically all town and therefore I have some high probability of being scum, and I know I'm not, it should be pretty obvious why I would push back.

But I mean ... it's mafia. The rhetoric gets aggressive. Nobody has gone after anyone on a personal level. Maybe don't go looking to be insulted and you won't feel like people are being super aggressive? It's just a game after all.

see this is awful too
this is literally softly arguing "mathdino could be scum because he's overconfident" while actively admitting that he hasn't done the research to back it up

1. I only replace into townslots when I have the option. I almost replaced into NSG's slot when callit flaked out, but I wasn't scumreading enough people at that point in the game to say "well I guess callit is town by PoE".

2. I'm confident because I already have one thing right -- my slot. That's a good start for me. Plus I'm better at reading newbies than average. I'm obviously not as good at reading more experienced players, which is why I try to determine those alignments by PoE (you, skitter) and shittons of meta (NSG).

3. Again, don't give me that. I essentially said "well I'm townreading the Drixx wagon so by VCA it's likely there's scum in skitter/Drixx assuming Oxy's account is entirely accurate", which lays out all of my assumptions AND admits I haven't read most of these events (

which is why I asked everyone to give me summaries, yet I only got more walls from everyone except Oxy

). You turned that into WELL LETS SEE WHOS A BETTER MAFIA PLAYER, HUH? 1V1 ME LETS SEE WHO FLIPS SCUM. Which is fucking hilarious since I haven't even been here the full game.
I'm not "looking to be offended". You turned this into some kind of fucked up bet without even addressing my priors -- that the only reason you're in my lynchpool is that I'm townreading enough other people.

[Scioness Sajj]

Drixx - you have not really posted that much compared to other people. You have been scumread by almost everybody.

If you think that's a slip you know what to do.