Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

looks like i'm getting the No Lynch i asked santa claus for on christmas eve

i'm gonna meta-dive skitter to see if she's worth lynching and then i'm gonna do nothing

brb

[pinturicchio]

Aaah this feels good
VOTE: ruru

[Mathdino]

yeah but you're not lynching ruru without a claim

and an ancillary check on ruru's ISO shows that she's offline for the night and will come back in about 11 hours

so GL with that one

(there's also the fact that she spews town and there really isn't anything scum indicative about 626 and 632 which i'm seeing as reasons to vote her)

[pinturicchio]

Oh, didn't notice she was going to be afk. Damn I really don't know what to do in this situation, I'll probably be sleeping when the deadline comes

[Mathdino]

like i said, our two options are:

1. lynch the VT claim

2. No Lynch (mathematically pretty good) and agree to take skitter30 to endgame because it's obviously worse if we're just gonna lynch her tomorrow anyway

[pinturicchio]

Ok back to skitter then
VOTE: Skitter30
We need a lynch

[pinturicchio]

like i said, our two options are:

1. lynch the VT claim

2. No Lynch (mathematically pretty good) and agree to take skitter30 to endgame because it's obviously worse if we're just gonna lynch her tomorrow anyway

I thought we agreed that the no lynch was not optimal in this situation

[Mathdino]

no we really don't, not if we get to the point of total confidence she's town

i ignored reading her because i had townread other people, but if i end up townreading her more strongly, i'm not gonna be cool with this

i'll let you know when i've locked something

Edit: drixx and skitter30 agreed on that.

i don't believe this setup is robust enough to actually encourage D1 lynching given that every single cell has a power role that can confirm scum

no lynching would become even more optimal if the tracker stepped up and claimed before tonight btw

if you're uncomfortable with that idea i can explain it ofc

[skitter30]

@ruru, 1004
@pin, 1005 - I don't get why you're townreading drixx. And like, I keep on saying I scumread oxy cuz he's scummy to me. And like how would me persisting in saying that he's scummy despite great resistance help me not get lynched exactly? IE I don't understand the connection you're drawing between 'me saying oxy is scummy' and 'saving myself from getting lynched'.

Skitter for real, don't make me repeat the same things I have already stated. I said I don't believe Drixx is scum because I think scum is between you, ruru and Scioness, and bot you and ruru pushed for a Drixx lynch and you panicking makes me believe you knew it was a mislynch.

About your read on Oxy, I think you're trying to town it up by scumreading a player who has been townread by many; "scum would try to deviate attention to another mislynchable player; instead, I'm going to stick to my read on the townie player so they don't see any inconsistency"

The last time we did this I pointed out that you're using circular logic and you never responded to that. You're townreadig drixx cuz you think me/ruru/scioness are scummy, but me/ruru/ at least are scummy because you're townreading drixx. Townreading someone cuz you dislike how the wagon formed on them is kinda silly imo. You're not actually townreading him for anything he did, but for things that happened around him. Like I totally get why you'd be suspicious of the wagon but I think that townreading the player it formed on solely for that reason is silly.

Why does scum!me panic at a mislynch that someone else is driving exactly? Why don't I let it go through?

And your explanation for my read on oxy is incredibly WIFOM-y; there's like twelve easier things for me to be doing here.

@oxy, 1016 - I was posting that way cuz there were like six p-edits in the time it took me to write that out and it happened faster than I could post. I just didn't write 'p-edit' each time a new post came up that made me think something else. Yeah I was just writing exactly what I was thinking at the time.

@ofrhz I'm with you that a skitter green flip doesn't give a ton of info, though i don't think it gives none. I

think if skitter flipped green, I'd look harder at Pin, nsg, mathdino, and less hard at drixx.

I'm not actually confident in that conclusion, however.

This is a hilariously bad understanding of the of the gamestate

Ofrzh like bleeds town and isn't voting me. Math is very, very probably town and has a great track record on reading NSG, and said he'd just bus her if he were scum with her; given their particular dynamic I think you just trust his read on her irregardless of math's alignment, so NSG's probably town.

I'm town (I know you don't believe that now but you'll see that once I flip).

Assuming the above, there has to be two scum in {oxy/ruru/scioness/drixx/pin}.

Hey, notice how ruru's been scumreading me for like two weeks but took her sweet time to vote me when a wagon actually popped up?

Hey, notice how Drixx was building up to a scumread on me (for bad reasons mind you, in a fashion kinda similar to what he tried to pull in 1797 with town!me and scum!him) and is shading me but is sitting on his oxy vote despite a wagon building on me and talk of him getting lynched?

I'm going to flip town. Scum know that. They know that there's a lot of very strong townreads on a bunch of people and that the game is rapidly becoming POE'd. Being on a wagon that results on my townflip won't be such a great look for them I'm basically a compromise lynch and that the reasons for scumreading me are largely based on the fact that I unvoted a wagon that went to L-1 in twenty minutes a week ago.

After I flip town, you look in the pool of {drixx/ruru/pin/oxy/scioness} in that order imo based on how this wagon formed (or isn't forming how the case may be). IE drixx is like the first person you look at here; he becomes more scummy with my townflip, not less so.

Or, tldr: the way that this wagon is *not* forming when I basically offered to be mislynched is sketchy as fuck, given that there's more than five people who scumread me enough to lynch me and/or think it's mechanically optimal, and it's going to be analyzed after I flip town, and I suspect that's why it slowed. (Or at least, I hope you guys analyze it )

Like I'm fine being mislynched (not really, it will be my first time getting mislynched on MS which kinda sucks but whatever it'll advance the gamestate) but I'm making very, very certain to indicate exactly where I think you ought to be looking next based on my reads and how the wagon formed before I go.

tunnel the sh*t out of ruru after that lame "fuck it if I'm wrong I'm wrong vote".

+1

This is how you should be looking at my wagon.

[skitter30]

I'm at a hotel with incredibly shitty wifi and ms keeps crashing so like I'll try to be around but no promises.

[pinturicchio]

I'm uncomfortable with the idea of talking about the tracker in general, maybe we can discuss it at the end of the game

[Mathdino]

i've already discussed it at the end of multiple games

see here for my calculations showing that tracker D1 claiming is likely better in order to not die at night

currently, because skitter's claim narrows the killpool, the PRs are slightly more likely to die than standard (assuming we lynch outside of skitter)

[Scioness Sajj]

I'm back for a while.

drixx > skitter but lynch > no lynch

[ofrhz]

I would compromise and go with a drixx lynch today, but you'll have to lynch ruru without me.

Who would be the last two votes we need to lynch? Mathdino seems convinced no lynch is a great idea

pedit: VOTE: Drixx Oxy/Scioness plz

[Oxy]

I can do that

VOTE: Drixx

[pinturicchio]

"Now assume VT lynch and tracker doesn't claim and mafia opts to not shoot the tracker for fear of protection:
Under all setups, mafia has a 20% chance of hitting the other power role, which is strictly better.

Now assume VT lynch and tracker doesn't claim and mafia opts to not shoot the tracker for fear of protection:
With cop/tracker, mafia has a 100% chance of hitting a power role.
With JK/tracker, mafia has a 0% chance of hitting a power role AND a kill is stopped.
With doc/tracker, mafia will shoot elsewhere, and thus has a 1/5 chance of hitting the doc, coming out to 20%."

I assume you wanted to say on the first paragraph that the tracker claims and scum doesn't shoot him, and in the second paragraph that he claims and mafia decides to shoot him? Correct me if I'm wrong please

[Oxy]

l-2 btw

[Oxy]

oh i missed question. pin has said that he could compromise lynch drixx, mathdino has previously stated that he believes drixx is highest chance of lynch, i believe ruru is also willing to compromise lynch drixx and i nsg suggested drixx was in her lynch pool earlier this evening

[Mathdino]

drixx wagon feels wrong given that i'm not townreading oferhzezhisozhcxz yet

someone go check his activity and see if he's gonna have time to claim

i can set an alarm to lynch skitter tomorrow possibly (if drixx AND skitter claim it's gonna be totally ridiculous to no lynch at that point)

"Now assume VT lynch and tracker doesn't claim and mafia opts to not shoot the tracker for fear of protection:
Under all setups, mafia has a 20% chance of hitting the other power role, which is strictly better.

Now assume VT lynch and tracker doesn't claim and mafia opts to not shoot the tracker for fear of protection:
With cop/tracker, mafia has a 100% chance of hitting a power role.
With JK/tracker, mafia has a 0% chance of hitting a power role AND a kill is stopped.
With doc/tracker, mafia will shoot elsewhere, and thus has a 1/5 chance of hitting the doc, coming out to 20%."

I assume you wanted to say on the first paragraph that the tracker claims and scum doesn't shoot him, and in the second paragraph that he claims and mafia decides to shoot him? Correct me if I'm wrong please

yes that's what i mean my bad

that also leaves out the benefit that we'd know the setup by tomorrow by whether or not tracker lived and/or was roleblocked

[Oxy]

so like, if we can't do skitter, drixx is a near second for me

[Oxy]

i don't see any indication of what his activity will be like in the next 11 hours. In this game, my only experience with him, he often is unable to post for 2+ day periods at a time.

[Scioness Sajj]

we can lynch skitter, we don't know if we will be able to lynch anybody else because of claims

Drixx was here around this time yesterday but that's about it

[Oxy]

scioness last night you literally said that you were a better lynch than skitter. what changed?

[pinturicchio]

"Now assume VT lynch and tracker doesn't claim and mafia opts to not shoot the tracker for fear of protection:
Under all setups, mafia has a 20% chance of hitting the other power role, which is strictly better.

Now assume VT lynch and tracker doesn't claim and mafia opts to not shoot the tracker for fear of protection:
With cop/tracker, mafia has a 100% chance of hitting a power role.
With JK/tracker, mafia has a 0% chance of hitting a power role AND a kill is stopped.
With doc/tracker, mafia will shoot elsewhere, and thus has a 1/5 chance of hitting the doc, coming out to 20%."

I assume you wanted to say on the first paragraph that the tracker claims and scum doesn't shoot him, and in the second paragraph that he claims and mafia decides to shoot him? Correct me if I'm wrong please

yes that's what i mean my bad

that also leaves out the benefit that we'd know the setup by tomorrow by whether or not tracker lived and/or was roleblocked

Ok, but my problem is that in your analysis, you're assuming that the tracker knows that the lynch is a VT. If the tracker believes that the D1 lynch will flip scum, then he becomes an investigative role as eficient as a cop and it would be better for him and for everyone to keep his/her identity hidden. So it would have to be other two scenarios: 1. No lynch and the tracker claims, but we don't know if there's a tracker so it's risky; and 2. Tracker claims on D2 if he's alive.

My other problem with the tracker claim strategy is that scum can do it when there's a roleblocker. You said "by whether or not tracker lived and/or was roleblocked", but there's no setup where a roleblocker and tracker coexists.

[ofrhz]

wtf sajj haven't you been townreading skitter for a while?