Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

Ok, but my problem is that in your analysis, you're assuming that the tracker knows that the lynch is a VT. If the tracker believes that the D1 lynch will flip scum, then he becomes an investigative role as eficient as a cop and it would be better for him and for everyone to keep his/her identity hidden. So it would have to be other two scenarios: 1. No lynch and the tracker claims, but we don't know if there's a tracker so it's risky; and 2. Tracker claims on D2 if he's alive.

My other problem with the tracker claim strategy is that scum can do it when there's a roleblocker. You said "by whether or not tracker lived and/or was roleblocked", but there's no setup where a roleblocker and tracker coexists.

then the tracker better be fantastic at appraising their own reads

like, NSG scum (something i could potentially be 90% confident on) would definitely be worth lynching through a PR claim and over no lynching in any scenario

anyone else?

understand that the vast majority of D1 lynches flip town. I'M not confident enough in any of my reads to put any lynches down to even 50%.

also if scum fakeclaim tracker, they basically get lynched in the next 2 days anyway when massclaim hits, so that would be suicidal and strictly worse for scum

[pinturicchio]

I've never seen a massclaim so I don't know what you're talking about, and if the 2 PRs are alive when that massclaim hits, that means that it could be a D3 LyLo with a false tracker and 2 PRs, but we wouldn't know which PR is lying... I don't know Dino, I just think is not that simple

[Oxy]

@pin @mathdino
could either of you professors please run the numbers on the expected value of wagoning sajj right now (in other words, what are your thoughts on sajj last night/today)

[Mathdino]

i'm still working on skitter30 meta

i really REALLY think she's town

at this point i'm basically waffling on whether i'm willing to bet the game on it (because you're lynching her over my dead body if she survives today)

[Scioness Sajj]

Have you both read the thread? We have 12 hours and only one VT claim, that makes lynching anybody but skitter nearly impossible.

Yeah, sure I'd prefer to lynch ruru today and see skitter go to the end game, but that's not really a thing right now.

[Mathdino]

could either of you professors please run the numbers on the expected value of wagoning sajj right now (in other words, what are your thoughts on sajj last night/today)

i'm not hard townreading scioness

if we don't lynch skitter30 and if i don't pick up a scumread on anyone (i might just be willing to policy lynch drixx to get our flip and leave it at that)

i'm going to be very strongly arguing for a no lynch

which is gonna be pretty easy since the votecount is a shotgun spread lol

[ofrhz]

why lynch skitter, your townread, at all?

[Oxy]

so, are you going to vote skitter? like if that's the only play in your mind, what are you waiting for?

[Oxy]

above post @sajj, obviously

[ofrhz]

oh yeah she hasn't voted skitter yet. @____@?

[Scioness Sajj]

lynch > no lynch
vt lynch > no claim lynch

p.edit if I have to vote skitter I will, I hope drixx will get back and claim vt though

[Mathdino]

p.edit if I have to vote skitter I will, I hope drixx will get back and claim vt though

this would be pretty anti-town

also scum drixx is literally just gonna claim a power role and force the lynch off himself you know

[ofrhz]

the only reason to vote skitter imo is if you're not reasonably convinced she's town. if that's the case, please convince yourself that she's town.

[Oxy]

VOTE: scioness sajj

I'm almost certainly terrible at this game, but none of what you just said made any sense to me.

[Oxy]

Let's see where this goes

[Scioness Sajj]

wait why?

Drixx yesterday said we should vote in {skitter, drixx}, if he claims pr we don't lynch him if he is lying we have a scum pinned down?

[Scioness Sajj]

We have 12 hours left, we don't know if enough people will be there for any new wagon nor is it actually safe to wagon anybody in case they won't be here to claim and we hit pr.

So we lynch skitter or drixx or we don't lynch at all

[Oxy]

@pin @ofrhz ya'll been scumreading sajj for a while. Sajj is in the thread, and we're down to the wire. If ya'll wanted to engage with her, or make a case on her, now would be an opportune time. I think it's <50% that we're going to get drixx in this thread while there are enough people for a lynch. I think it's <50% that we're going to get a skitter lynch. I think it would be pro-town from your perspectives to take advantage of this opportunity.

[Oxy]

back in 30

[Mathdino]

okay i'm willing to fucking lose to scum skitter30

i finished my metadive and unfortunately her scumgames onsite are horribly outdated

nuance and general signs of intelligence are not towntells for her, unfortunately

THAT SAID i think she's towntold in this game in numerous ways that i'd have serious trouble seeing out of her scumgames without, for example, being coached by RC (a thing that happened once in what seems to be her best scumgame lol)

gimme a bit to do a onceover on skitter and to decide on drixx

but yeah we no lynch before we lynch skitter

i know you guys are going with the general "Lynch is always better than No Lynch on D1" and trust me, that sentiment will serve you will in basically any setup that's not badly designed, and i'm genuinely glad your collective gut tends toward hating on me for even speaking the words No Lynch

however, this is not an airtight setup, and the high likelihood of power roles that can basically solve the game for us (which was put in place essentially as a crutch because towns have been getting awful on MS lately, something i don't feel is true of this town)

means that No Lynch is surprisingly viable

i'd post my credentials or whatever when it comes to setup spec but it's basically "i'm known onsite for breaking games all the time" and i don't wanna shit all over newbie games with my ego that much more than that

so take it from me? i guess?

[northsidegal]

i don't think the thing people are scumreading scioness for is actually scum-indicative. her logic makes sense, and i think as scum it just benefits her more to let it go to no lynch than to make a scummy-looking move in voting someone she was townreading before.

[Drixx]

I've been here several times today. There just wasn't anything worth responding to earlier. There's a certain probability that Skitter is scum and picked a very solid way to respond to pressure. The rest of the probability space has Skitter as town. In a town!skitter world, we already have one townie who has basically claimed VT from the perspective of scum.

I won't be claiming.

It would be foolish in the extreme to vote outside of {Drixx, Skitter} given what is known or can be reasonably extrapolated.

[Mathdino]

one thing i will say from doing a thread search is that it's interesting how nobody seems to have mentioned my slot beforehand. i really don't know what it means yet, if anything. if i had to guess i'd say it might cast the SEs/IC in a more suspicious light, but that's just speculation.

Your slot is a newbie-slot that site-flaked before they even confirmed their alignment. Not really sure what you're expecting people to read into that?

i didn't expect people to "read into it", it's just the fact that my slot seemed to have just been ignored, and it was 4 whole days before it was replaced. it's just strange to me – i would have expected at least a few more mentions than i've found. my baseless theory is that the more experienced players who perhaps should have called for it to be replaced or prodded earlier didn't because an empty slot benefits them as scum, but like i said – just speculation.

this never comes from northscumgal btw

it actually further proves townsidegal

when scumbuddies go completely the fuck inactive, scum tends to request prods more often on those slots

town-NSG+town-skitter+town-mathdino

i find it unlikely that we'll NEED to lynch

but yeah if we're lynching we're policy lynching drixx

[Mathdino]

i don't think the thing people are scumreading scioness for is actually scum-indicative. her logic makes sense, and i think as scum it just benefits her more to let it go to no lynch than to make a scummy-looking move in voting someone she was townreading before.

NSG PLEASE HELP ME FIGURE OUT WHAT THE RIGHT COURSE OF ACTION HERE IS THANK YOU

i don't need you to completely catch up but i need to know i'm not on an idiotic track right now

- my read on skitter: are we comfortable betting the game on town-skitter? i didn't play with her in 711 (i honestly didn't read most of her posts because walls) so all i have is cold meta

- my read on oxy: please point out to me why it's bad if it's bad

- same thing with read on ruru i guess

- is lynching drixx the right move here? assume my POV for a second and hold that No Lynching is not mechanically awful

[northsidegal]

is your townread on skitter truly enough that you'd bring her to endgame? that's the keystone question.