Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[ofrhz]

@ruru- Why would you say Scioness is ignoring you?

(sorry about all the posts)

[Oxy]

I guess aside from Mathdino's read on NSG, I don't really see anything that indicates NSG is town.

I'm with you, but he town read her enough to sheep her on pintu. From reading his article, that meant he was pretty confident. Also, below:

her reads are inaccurate because she's scumleaning NSG which i'm almost positive she's wrong on (and she admitted i'm more likely to be right)

Also, he's dead, and i think sheeping the dead is undervalued.

[ofrhz]

Re: 1154, I also can’t think of a single scumteam with ruru in it that makes a lot of sense. Like even if NSG was scum, ruru/NSG doesn’t seem likely.

[ruru]

I thought Sajj's case on you (ruru) was kinda weak. I don't really know how to explain it, but even though Scioness and I both thought you were scummy, her weak case against you made you seem more town in comparison. Does that even make sense? So after your post 850, I was very confused, and had you as null for a little bit.

What definitely changed my mind was skitter's 1033. Her analysis of the game made a lot of sense to me when she said "Hey, notice how ruru's been scumreading me for like two weeks but took her sweet time to vote me when a wagon actually popped up?"

I mean her analysis also scumread Drixx for like the same reason. But yeah Drixx looked a bit scummy on day 1, so I see where you're coming from.

(Also I was trying to do other things with my vote. There's no point in trying to lynch the person I find scummiest when we have like 3 AFKs.)

[ruru]

@ruru- Why would you say Scioness is ignoring you?

(sorry about all the posts)

She never answered 850 (or 1004) and I feel like it's pretty relevant to the game state considering she was leaving her vote on me and a last minute wagon even formed on me afterward

[Oxy]

Re: 1154, I also can’t think of a single scumteam with ruru in it that makes a lot of sense. Like even if NSG was scum, ruru/NSG doesn’t seem likely.

so then where are ya thinkin? Drixx wagon 100% town -> look at... exactly Pinturicchio + NSG?
Drixx wagon not 100% town -> look at Sajj, Pin, Skitter, NSG?

[Oxy]

to clarify, I am referring to the drixx lynch, not the earlier wagon.

[Oxy]

oh yeah, scioness sajj + ruru is unlikely because of the scioness vote on ruru so late in the day, that's right. I knew there was something.

[ofrhz]

Gonna try looking from another angle. I was thinking that Math being targeted night 1 was odd. Like I had a feeling he wasn’t a PR based on how he took control of the game from the outset, and the only other reason to lynch him otherwise is his ability to game solve.

This would put the spotlight on scioness and me (lol) because we’re the first two up in his list of people to lynch if Drixx is town.

This kinda rules out Oxy, ruru, NSG and maybe skitter, who I think were Math’s strongest town reads. Or am I totally off base? Because this would mean sajj/pin, which doesn’t make that much sense to me. Or would scum NSG feel threatened by Math in the game?

pedit: I’m thinking it’s not 100% town right now, but I’m also really friggin confused.
Pedit again: yeah I don’t think scioness ruru is a thing.

UNVOTE:

[ruru]

skitter/pin seems less likely than other pairings (but pin has a pretty wild playstyle, so I wouldn't rule it out).

I'm not sure why dino ruled out skitter/NSG, is it because of the vote? If they're both scum, and skitter was under suspicion, does scum!skitter have much to lose by voting scum!NSG there? The wagon was based on first impressions and I'm not sure if scum!NSG was in that much danger of actually being lynched. And it wasn't too close to deadline.

I could see scum!NSG being threatened by dino, because she hasn't posted a whole lot to go off of, so his opinion could easily change later. If this is actually true, then he would be a really high value kill, especially if we were to sheep his read for the rest of the game. But I mean this gets really WIFOMy so I don't know if it actually makes much sense

[Oxy]

@ruru I think it must be for the vote. The idea (i'm guessing?) being that it would risk creating a 1v1 svs at end of day. I can't find anything else, though. Not sure that's a good enough reason to rule out that pairing. I do think that pairing is very unlikely based on what I said in 1170

[Oxy]

I see the whole high value argument, but that seems like a lylo rabbit hole to me ;P

[Oxy]

@ofrhz sajj + pin is not an outlandish possibility, necessarily. Is it? I think I could come up with a theory worth of Pin on why the two of them are scum, lol.

[ofrhz]

Hmm, I’m townleaning pin though. Could pin/NSG be a thing? If not, all possible scumteams involve scioness (I also think skitter/NSG is unlikely)

[Oxy]

how likely is it that nsg gives a strong town reads pin, and pin gives a set of reads that leaves him scumreading his partner by poe? serious question because I am not sure.

[ofrhz]

Kinda likely if he continues to townread both of us and expand his town pool. But pin had skitter, ruru, and scioness in his top 3 lynchpool yesterday, so he’s not really that close to identifying NSG as scum by POE yet.

I also couldn’t find any read from NSG about pin except for a town tell she saw. I’m guessing that’s why she had pin in her top 3 townreads.

[Oxy]

ah you're right i mixed up his last read. nevermind on 1189. sorry. I'm out for a few hours. bbl

[pinturicchio]

Just noticed this was back. I will be very busy until maybe wednesday, but now I've got a little time, let me see something

[pinturicchio]

I'm going to quote every thing that pinged me from ofrhz this day because Dino didn't townread him and I want to confirm that he (Dino) was wrong:

Actually no, I think the Drixx Lynch could have been entirely town motivated.

VOTE: ruru

Ok, why? This is pretty convenient for you since you were on that wagon. Are you trying to evade pressure?

My reasons for voting are the same as yesterday, and I'm pretty sure I explained them yesterday, but basically you're not genuinely scumhunting.

ofhrz

: ruru, Drixx, ruru, ruru, Drixx

You're accusing ruru for not being active scumhunting, but you've only voted two people: the person you're accusing and the mislynch...

if you are scum, Drixx and NSG were both viable scum partners (at the time).

I would have preferred to lynch you as I indicated later, but I wouldn't have done it without a claim.

Ok, I was going to look why did you vote Drixx because from all the votes he got, Scioness and yours were the ones that pinged me most, since you were basically tunneling ruru... But I get it. I'll reread your vote on Drixx tho.

I guess aside from Mathdino's read on NSG, I don't really see anything that indicates NSG is town.

Yes, good job. This is a real contribution.

Gonna try looking from another angle. I was thinking that Math being targeted night 1 was odd. Like I had a feeling he wasn’t a PR based on how he took control of the game from the outset, and the only other reason to lynch him otherwise is his ability to game solve.

This would put the spotlight on scioness and me (lol) because we’re the first two up in his list of people to lynch if Drixx is town.

Talking about why Dino was the nightkill is WIFOMy; I see what you're saying, scum could've thought that Scioness and/or you would be an easy mislynch this day, but then again, Scioness and/or you could just stage this by killing Dino and saying "scum is trying to mislynch us"... Let's analyze Dino's reads and the votecounts on D1, that's better info. Dino made a post with a lot of that. (I see you said something about Dino's townreads in this post but I want to talk about that later in another post).

Hmm, I’m townleaning pin though. Could pin/NSG be a thing? If not, all possible scumteams involve scioness (I also think skitter/NSG is unlikely)

I've seen you implying that NSG could be scum, scared of Dino changing his read on her, and saying that maybe Dino was wrong... Also, why are you townleaning me? I haven't seen your read on me in this game at all.

I also couldn’t find any read from NSG about pin except for a town tell she saw. I’m guessing that’s why she had pin in her top 3 townreads.

Good job again.

Fast conclusion: ofrhz is town, Dino was wrong. NSG is town too, you're wrong there ofrhz

[pinturicchio]

Now, about Dino: I'm glad and pissed at the same time that he died and flipped VT.

Glad for two things: I thought he was a PR because of eth0s and because he didn't claim Tracker (he really likes breaking setups and I'm not so sure that claiming Tracker as a VT is the best course of action for town, even if he gives very good reasons based on numbers and shit), and also because his entrance did ping me; I don't like his "I'm confirmed town because I only replace townslots I townread", so him flipping town is a very useful tool for us now, because his townreads are indeed really good.

But I'm also pissed, also for two things: because if he was scum I would understand him doing what he did, but him being town I think it's a little unfair to come and be basically a conf!town in a Newbie game... I mean come on, I had a blast in my first Newbie because I was really engaged and almost dreamed with that game. When someone as experienced as Dino comes, conf!town himself and start solving the game... I don't know, it feels unfair, for town and for scum, because if Dino's reads are right, it doesn't feel like a win at all, and obviously for scum is unfair too because there was a conf!town. I believe that's why the scumteam decided to kill him: you have to kill the people who won't be lynched by any chance, that's one of the reasons scum tries to hit the PRs at night (and because of the PR's night actions, of course), and Dino was basically conf!town...

The other reason why I'm pissed is because Dino was wrong about Drixx, and I was right, and now there's a slight chance that we won't win because of this... From my point of view, Oxy, NSG (because Dino's reads on her are basically always correct and I won't think much more about that) and ofrhz (confirmed now for me) are town, so my lynchpool is still between skitter, ruru and Scioness. Why in the hell did skitter's wagon died? I pretty much convinced myself that the scumteam was Dino and skitter after rereading the last pages of the thread, but now Dino is dead... So I'm back to my lynchpool. If, instead of Drixx, skitter would've been lynched, if she flipped town, ruru was basically conf!scum from my point of view; if she flipped scum, Scioness was a good target for the next day. But that doesn't works on D2 because if we lynch skitter and she flips town, ruru could fakeclaim on D3 and I'm not willing to be in that situation because everyone else is townreading ruru and I trust my townreads better than my scumreads so I could be wrong on her but then again I could be right and OMFG anxiety.

Sorry for the long ass post, as I said, I will be busy and I'll try to do back and forth posts, but it's unlikely, so I had to give my early thoughts

[Oxy]

Hi Pin!

Why is ofrhz conf!town from your pov?

Why is ruru conf!scum if skitter is town? Who could she be scum with?

What is your initial opinion on where we should lynch today?

[pinturicchio]

Hi Pin!

Why is ofrhz conf!town from your pov?

Why is ruru conf!scum if skitter is town? Who could she be scum with?

What is your initial opinion on where we should lynch today?

Sorry, change both confs for obvs. They are not confirmed, but obvious.

ofrhz was pretty much obv!town all D1 but I was willing to reconsider because of Dino's read on him. His first posts on D2 pinged me hard but then he went back to obv!town ofrhz of D1. scum!ofrhz would townread NSG and keep pushing ruru as it is far easier than starting to doubt Dino's read on NSG and townread the player he has pushed consistently, and that's not something he would do premeditated.

About ruru: I fucked up that part, I meant to say that if skitter flipped scum, ruru would be obv!scum and if skitter flipped town, ruru could still be scum and she would have the chance to fakeclaim. ruru being the obvious partner of skitter is because PoE and because her vote on her saying "fuck it if I'm wrong I'm wrong" which seemed so awkward to me.

[pinturicchio]

About my initial option... There are two players who haven't even posted lol there could be a guilty and we're just losing our time discussing so nothing yet, but I already stated that my lynchpool stayed the same as D1 as I got no new information (the only thing that got me was Dino not being a PR but that doesn't change his alignment)

[Oxy]

ruru being the obvious partner of skitter is because PoE and because her vote on her saying "fuck it if I'm wrong I'm wrong" which seemed so awkward to me.

huh. When I try to read this in its most scummy manner, it's as scum!ruru apologizing in advance because she knows it's town!skitter that she is voting on. Why does she say that when she is voting her partner?

[skitter30]

Hey, it was the last two days of Passover and I'm kinda v/la till tomorrow, but I'll try to post thoughts and catch up in a few hours; if not, definitely tomorrow.