Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[ofrhz]

oh i mean, you, skitter, pin, and NSG all seem willing to vote for ruru, no?

[Oxy]

@ofrhz if you assume town!ruru, and then use your logic to conclude town!skitter, then moving forward in the poe, why does scum!pin not just push for a skitter mislynch rather than turn on ruru? For that matter, why doesn't scum!nsg do that, or scum!sajj? And then you've poe'd your scum pool down to you and I, and we both know that's wrong. So somewhere in that line of thinking is an error.

[Oxy]

What you really should be asking is, if you know you're town, and you believe I am town, then why is it so hard to find 2 more votes for skitter?

[Scioness Sajj]

scumreading somebody doesn't mean it they will actually vote her I think.

a lot of people have scumpools of at least 3 people in them. and ruru has been mentioned as scummy a lot of time, but the wagon only happened when it was impossble to push it (before deadline D1).

[Scioness Sajj]

Pintu is voting skitter right now though

[Oxy]

oh true. so from his perspective he has poe'd it down to pin + me... and at least I know that's false =) so still an error in the thought process

[ofrhz]

earlier in D2, ruru seemed like the most likely candidate for today's lynch. so maybe scum thought it would be too hard to mislynch skitter? idk this is very wifom-y

pin _did_ turn on skitter though when it seemed easier to. So I'm not sure if that's a valid argument. Also, NSG is still here and not townreading skitter afaik - she hasn't given any indication she won't vote for skitter.

like what if it IS Sajj + pin and one of them is pushing skitter and the other isn't? or maybe NSG is scum.

[Scioness Sajj]

i guess what i mean is, even if scum!ruru doesn't want to get on the wagon with her partner, scum!ofrhz (or from your perspective scum!oxy) why doesn't she just allow pin and nsg, both of whom are predisposed to a skitter lynch, vote? Why does she demand that the day be extended until she can work through other angles?

p.edit I accept those conditions so long as you don't ask me to do a lot of secretarial work.

because her partner is already on the wagon? there are three people on skitter wagon right now like even if scumbuddy isn't on the wagon (which is only NSG) then she still can have scum motiv to do what she does.

again she didn't demand shit, she said she will consider voting skitter if she thinks she is scummier than me.

she has no saying in what other people will do that are not her scumbuddies and I don't remember her asking anybody to not vote, she only spoke for herself.

[Scioness Sajj]

NSG isn't townreading skitter, she was in the lowest line of her readlist.

together with ruru iirc

[Scioness Sajj]

OH MY GOD WE ARE ACTUALLY TALKING ABOUT THE GAME FINALLY

[Oxy]

I don't see any reason to keep this day going...

If skitter is town, we lynch her, another town gets NKed, then it's 5-way lylo tommorrow. I would bet on at least one of {skitter, SS} being scum but I really don't want to lynch skitter until I'm confident she's not just scummy, but also scummier than SS. Especially if you think ofrhz+SS is a reasonably likely pair then it seems pretty dangerous to me. I don't think just skitter being scummy is enough reason to lynch her right now if that makes sense.

SS, I would really like to see a clear answer to 377

VOTE: Scioness Sajj

Also if scum!skitter has a reason for not wanting more ofrhz/SS interactions, then I definitely want them to happen before the day ends

bolded is lowkey demand that this be allowed to happen before day ends.

Also, her partner being on the wagon was part of that hypothetical, so it can't be answer.

[Scioness Sajj]

HHHMMMMMMMMMMM

[skitter30]

Skitter, assuming you're town (i know, a stretch~~~), why does ruru vote for sajj here?

I mean, I just said it more likely than not doesn't come from scum. Idk why scum!her doesn't vote me there.

If you're asking about her place in the list despite this, its cuz I townread the people ahead of her more and cuz I don't scumread ofrzh enough to give him his own tier below her.

[Oxy]

@ofrhz @sajj This is the level of associations reading that I think actually could be detrimental. Too much wifom, too many assumptions. The problem with all of the "scum!x would obviously use this strategy" is that scum!x could have simply used a different strategy.

Things I'm taking to the bank today.
ruru is town.
nsg is town.
skitter, regardless of alignment, has been making some very scummy arguments.

[skitter30]

There's definitely 4 people here who want to lynch ruru

I don't think there are.

[Scioness Sajj]

yeah I see that, although I think you have exaggerated it.

I have disregarded it becuase my interaction with ofrhz were never skitters point.

[skitter30]

@ofrhz @sajj

This is the level of associations reading that I think actually could be detrimental. Too much wifom, too many assumptions. The problem with all of the "scum!x would obviously use this strategy" is that scum!x could have simply used a different strategy.

Things I'm taking to the bank today.
ruru is town.
nsg is town.
skitter, regardless of alignment, has been making some very scummy arguments.

I've only been saying that for like the entire phase.

[ofrhz]

Okay, there are definitely 4 people who had ruru in their scum pool. Better?

Skitter has been pretty town aside from pushing the 1v1 argument though.

[Oxy]

Skitter, assuming you're town (i know, a stretch~~~), why does ruru vote for sajj here?

I mean, I just said it more likely than not doesn't come from scum. Idk why scum!her doesn't vote me there.

If you're asking about her place in the list despite this, its cuz I townread the people ahead of her more and cuz I don't scumread ofrzh enough to give him his own tier below her.

okay, great.

So just walk down a hypothetical for one second. I'm town. You're town. NSG is town (still sheeping dino in this hypothetical).

If ruru is town, we're left with Pin, Ofrhz, and Sajj.
Pin+Ofrhz is the one association outside of myself that I'm pretty confident isn't a thing because of their two votes at end of D1.
so that leaves
Ofrhz+Sajj
Pin + Sajj

Could you be wrong on Sajj?

If we take away the ruru assumption for a moment, we can add
Ruru+Sajj
Ruru+Ofrhz
Ruru+Pin


If we add in an assumption for town sajj, the pairs become

Ruru+Ofrhz
Ruru+Pin


So in a world where you and I are both town,

The choices for lynch today are ruru and sajj

But none of this matters because you're scum reading me for an asinine conspiracy theory that has me trying to blatantly manipulate other players into posting anti-town content in the face of all the other reasoning players have found to strongly town read me.

So how am I supposed to town read you when that seems like the worst read of the game from my pov?

[Scioness Sajj]

What votes are you referring to with ofrhz/pin sumcteam?

[Oxy]

their two votes, seconds apart, on an empty ruru wagon (they were votes 1 and 2), in the final hours of the day.

[ofrhz]

No Scioness was on that wagon first

[Oxy]

you're right. Do you think that should change that analysis? (should I be considering Ofrhz + Pin?)

[Oxy]

I hate being wrong, it looks bad for any argument I'm making, but I just don't see two scum jumping from a live mislynch wagon, to a L-4 wagon that no one is talking about but them, so late in the day. I just don't.

[ofrhz]

I don’t think it means much coming from me, but that makes sense