Open 719: Stack The Deck! (D4)

[brassherald]

@Brass: everyone knows i'm not groupscum. the question at hand is basically whether i'm specifically a mafia traitor

i just

what i can't fucking wrap my head around

is that beefster knows making a shit vote like that on me is basically suicide. i caught him as scum literally the last time he did it

so beefster was clearly the fall guy for the team if there was one

Then why did you push Thor so hard after that vote from Beef?

(Like, seriously logging off right after hitting submit, I leave work in 3 hours if I finish this motion and I want to do that, see you all in 4ish adding time for commute.)

[Mathdino]

@Brass: everyone knows i'm not groupscum. the question at hand is basically whether i'm specifically a mafia traitor

i just

what i can't fucking wrap my head around

is that beefster knows making a shit vote like that on me is basically suicide. i caught him as scum literally the last time he did it

so beefster was clearly the fall guy for the team if there was one

Then why did you push Thor so hard after that vote from Beef?

(Like, seriously logging off right after hitting submit, I leave work in 3 hours if I finish this motion and I want to do that, see you all in 4ish adding time for commute.)

i mean i've already talked about this

- thor was being more anti-town than scum
- thor was spending 90% of his posts deathtunneling me because "Mathdino pushes the bodyguard to claim as town" and "Mathdino refuses to answer questions about this conversation" which is idiotic and i assumed town-Thor is always better than this
- thor-scum is a difficult lynch while beefsscum is not, and i was fine with a thor/beefster team anyway (less fine when i realised that was dumb by VCA but w/e). beefster is also viggable while thor is very much not

i have a tendency to get distracted by people who i feel should know better

and you remember our game with thor; he reminded me very very very strongly of that game and i felt like to thor-scum i was the correct person to remove early as a result of that

[Nauci]

Y'all blitzed this thread so much this morning I just finally finished reading in order to type up my thoughts. There were many thoughts and I don't remember all of them now, but here goes nothing.

501: Nothing
520: Daytalk + Rolecop
530: Daytalk + JOAT
539: Recruit + Rolecop + JOAT
548: Nothing
557: Rolecop + JOAT
574: Daytalk + Rolecop (I played this!)(I also am one of few people with access to this mafia PT, which has still not been archived after 4 years)
582: Recruit + Rolecop (I won this!)
594: Recruit + Rolecop + JOAT
622: Recruit + Rolecop + JOAT
644: Nothing
651: Recruit + Rolecop + Bulletproof
663: Rolecop
684: Rolecop + JOAT
711: Recruit (I modded this!)

I stand corrected. I do think it's pretty -EV to select Rolecop just to add another TPR that needs to be rolecopped/killed but that might be because I generally think MS PR play is hilariously obvious.

Scum tends to lose the more they pick I think. Not a 100% rule but it's definitely a trend.

Innocent Child is good when played well.

Also this setup is for some reason sometimes run as 12p and sometimes as 13p. Dunno how much that affects the balance.

I'm pretty much 100% convinced that Mathdino couldn't possibly have been an original scum. There's no universe in which WIFOM or anything else would have him pick up a rolecop.

In addition, I'm willing to bet that the rolecop came with recruit or daychat.

How often does scum just pick nothing or pick only daytalk? I recall someone in the last game was talking about taking the two goon buffs to nullify GC which was interesting. Leaning on better setup specers than me as to whether this would actually work/whether people are likely to come up with it.

Last Stack the Deck Creature/Jay slot would have been a great d1 lynch until that damn claim. IC feels like an exceptionally good roll in this setup.

Doing this either:

- Creates three useful TPRs anyway
or
- Creates four TPRs that aren't Goon Cop

I'm generally of the opinion that the claimspace is more valuable than anything else.

At the very least, given the caliber of the majority of players here, I'd definitely expect a lighter scumteam. Especially after it's pretty much MD consensus that less is more.

I think this plausibly narrows down the pool of OG scum possibilities.

btw math, looks like you were wrong
scum had a rolecop so far and I doubt thats the end of it
just getting a rolecop when it adds a role to deal with feels silly

I'm actually willing to bet that if there's a RC, they picked all 3 bonuses, but at least 2. I'm also surprised how long it took for people to start setup speccing on those flips.

Vca heavily suggests scum in brass, duck, MariaR yeah

Still never lynching Nauci, that shit was townier than jmo

Also sidenote I correctly townread her team mafia tiebreaker when my team didn't so lol suck it my team

tryna get me killed or somethin brah?

Oh yeah I also have a tell on Nauci shhhhhh
If you guys lynch her after I die imma be mad
Like seriously people keep killing me and lynching my townreads

o_o what's my tell

when I first started playing mafia (on a forum of people who've known me for years though) I used to get mislynched all the damn time

I guess I'm doing better!

ill reread but i think math might be the traitor here

I've been musing on this since d1 but it's a hard sell

I'll help with that when I'm not phoneposting.

Also to say I'm jaded about being a vt would be a gross understatement.

The scumslip is calling an absolute that isn't true then chasing it because you know it isn't true.

did you just claim vt

what the fuck

@Wisdom: I', not even sure there is one. I said earlier that Scum might have also recruited their Traitor so Beef knew he was hammering Town for sure.

ok even in that case, who is the third scum?

Espeo or Nauci

wat

@Dino: Are you scum, mate? I'm pretty much weirded out by you 2nd guessing me here.

I also am not happy with us 3 going round and round in circles with everybody else sitting on the sidelines. I want everybody to come say their piece and get interrogated.

Every time I went to post there was another page to read T_T

Btw, did you guys read the competition tiebreaker? I laughed at GiF's gambit. I loved it. Just saying.

I consider GIF a god now

arguing with Sky was fucking infuriating but GIF made that game worth it

and anyone who didn't TR sobolev is bad at reads holy shit

I almost claimed doctor to try and eat an NK that one night. Thank fuck I decided against it

Btw, did you guys read the competition tiebreaker? I laughed at GiF's gambit. I loved it. Just saying.

yeah i locked sobolev space and nauci as town and then NSG was like "nah space is so scum" and hard disagreed with me about nauci

that's honestly my conftown trump card this game because like i said i only knew nauci was town in the tiebreaker because i had already did basic meta on her in this game (i have receipts and dw i did not talk about ongoing games)

over the course of tiebreakers i found a major major towntell on nauci though
and if this game goes like others, i'm going to be killed/lynched and nauci is gonna get put back into the lynchpool afterward and i'm gonna get super annoyed in the dead thread
so uh
trust me thanks

Seriously I'm going to get so annoyed if you keep posting about this "tell" thing

So either explain it or stop

So, I was in court the whole morning for a stupid case I'm handling and just sat down to eat lunch.

I am wondering about one thing as I catch up, put food down my gullet, and process information. I see a bunch of stuff about speculation as to whom the traitor is. I've never played with a traitor in the past. How do you differentiate between normal scum and traitor scum in your scum hunting?

I feel like you wouldn't normally ask a question with answers this obvious.

Hot takes out of the way, analysis coming up after lunch

[Mathdino]

glad you're back

In addition, I'm willing to bet that the rolecop came with recruit or daychat.
[...]
I'm actually willing to bet that if there's a RC, they picked all 3 bonuses, but at least 2. I'm also surprised how long it took for people to start setup speccing on those flips.

i disagree with this and the data shows that many scumteams do just pick a role cop or just a role cop and one other role
rolecop+daychat seems not overly useful, i'd say rolecop+recruit has more equity

I think this plausibly narrows down the pool of OG scum possibilities.

correct
ugh this makes me second guess my TW read though

tryna get me killed or somethin brah?

sorry
people keep lynching my townreads after i die and it's just upsetting
because people think my reads don't mean shit because my scumreads were wrong
but my scumreads are basically a little bit better than randomly lynching in my PoE pool
while my strong townreads are nearly 100% correct (credit to the worst for beating me last game but also you had 4 scum with a gladiator in 13p so screw you)
and my "neverlynch ever ever" reads are 100% correct

o_o what's my tell

when I first started playing mafia (on a forum of people who've known me for years though) I used to get mislynched all the damn time

I guess I'm doing better!
[...]
Seriously I'm going to get so annoyed if you keep posting about this "tell" thing

So either explain it or stop

on an emotional level i can understand why people get annoyed when i find towntells on them because it makes them easily readable and people hate being easily readable
i don't like outing tells, especially on players i consider to be good up-and-coming players; helps a LOT when i can lock reads on people i've met before
but yeah i'll stop talking about it as long as people agree to treat you essentially as an innocent child

and anyone who didn't TR sobolev is bad at reads holy shit

I almost claimed doctor to try and eat an NK that one night. Thank fuck I decided against it

i hard TR'd her off her first 3 posts tbh
it's just different when you're not playing the game personally interacting though
much harder.

I feel like you wouldn't normally ask a question with answers this obvious.

meh disagree, that seems pretty standard earnest brassherald to me
he was once super overwhelmingly obvtown in a game and then was like "wait so why was i even obvtown" postgame, which i honestly considered a bit of an obvious question lol

i'm locking brass out of scumpool due to associatives in his ISO (and the lack of bus history he has as scum), do you disagree?

[Nauci]

Quick responses while I type up my mega analysis post

@Dino I didn't mean you were trying to get me lynched. I meant your NAUCI BASICALLY IC shit is going to get me shot bruh. If you angled any harder on it I'd think you were the traitor pointing your goon at me.

I change my mind on the brass question. Reread the newbie game we were in and he was constantly asking for elaborate explanations and overthinking simple stuff like this. I just hate all these dodgy I'M TOO BUSY TO POST posts and am used to seeing more substance from him

Also, I'ma need you to link some games where you corrected rooted out TPR.

[Wisdom]

btw since math isnt doing it

This is uglyduck's completed town game and I see a different person there

[Mathdino]

@Dino I didn't mean you were trying to get me lynched. I meant your NAUCI BASICALLY IC shit is going to get me shot bruh. If you angled any harder on it I'd think you were the traitor pointing your goon at me.

I change my mind on the brass question. Reread the newbie game we were in and he was constantly asking for elaborate explanations and overthinking simple stuff like this. I just hate all these dodgy I'M TOO BUSY TO POST posts and am used to seeing more substance from him

Also, I'ma need you to link some games where you corrected rooted out TPR.

- i get that. w/e. i mean you being obvtown is obviously the thing that gets you shot but if i were scum i wouldn't have to locktown you at all, and so you wouldn't be a necessary shoot
i expect to be NK'd much more than i expect you to be

- he's busy IRL, check his site activity.

- sure. i linked my scum threads earlier
hope plus one: the scumchat was totally deleted, which is sad, because i found all 3 TPRs, shot two, and had one of our scumteam counterclaim the third (we pushed the lynch through). pretty proud of that game
pick your chocolate power: i was actually town in this game, but finding all the PRs was important to gamesolving, and i had a neighbourhood to do so (being in a PT helps a LOT with PR hunting just because i think by talking). i figured out someone was a N3 vig and locktowned them openly; they couldn't believe i could be so sure of them being town so they shot me -_-
micro 769: shot the jailkeeper N1 off gut. i was wrong about the second PR but they got mislynched D2 anyway so w/e
three in one part 2: shot the doctor, figured out who the cop was (i admittedly waffled on this), and fakeclaimed a guilty on the cop to win on D2.

then there's anything upick but that was role madness and EVERYONE was a PR so i just shot
N1. someone who was annoying me
N2. the innocent child
and after that everyone had basically claimed anyway

there's also inventions mafia from team mafia where i coached the nightkills, but i had no idea PRs even existed (thought it was all vanilla), and had i known i probably would've actually given a shit about ISOing people to PR hunt.

so yeah i have essentially a 100% record of shooting PRs in games that even have them

meanwhile i have a hilariously strong tendency as town of scumreading scum + every single PR lately
so when thor flipped i was like wow gj mathdino there's another one
and kinda facepalmed because in retrospect i should've caught that he was a bodyguard since he dropped the exact same tell that led me to shoot the doctor in 3 in 1

i'm in the process of writing an article about PR/VT tells but i don't wanna talk about it too much because that might make it related to this ongoing game or some shit

[Mathdino]

btw since math isnt doing it

This is uglyduck's completed town game and I see a different person there

i'll get to that

more interested in mariaR right now

some people find her easily readable but i don't so it would be good to learn something about her scumgame

[Wisdom]

maria is a traitor if shes scum
you said lynching traitors is not a priority
so why is maria more interesting right now

[Nauci]

Lol I have to say I asked because how did you not see BG!Thor coming

I was egging on the wagon just to see who bit but thought he was like Sky_Paladin round 2

I gotta wonder if beef was trying to hide something with the lolhammer or just thought he was toast and could at least make it to day 2 this way

[Mathdino]

maria is a traitor if shes scum
you said lynching traitors is not a priority
so why is maria more interesting right now

this is the first i've heard of it

explain?

[Mathdino]

Lol I have to say I asked because how did you not see BG!Thor coming

I was egging on the wagon just to see who bit but thought he was like Sky_Paladin round 2

I gotta wonder if beef was trying to hide something with the lolhammer or just thought he was toast and could at least make it to day 2 this way

because i'm absolutely fucking blind to PR play when i'm town and when i'm not actively thinking about it

and the thing is, if i actively think about it, i'll start saying stupid shit like "UHH YEAH THOR IS TOWN BECAUSE REASONS" and then it just makes it obvious i think they're a PR and it gets them shot. (seeing people say this makes things a lot easier for scum)

like, in open 714, my scumpool D1 was literally {the vig, the jailkeeper, the backup rolecop, 1 scum}
and in three in one part 1 my scumpool was {1 scum, the cop, the doc}

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Mathdino]

beefster giving up isn't exactly news

he probably made the right call with the lolhammer but he probably wasn't thinking about getting vigged

[Nauci]

VOTE: UglyDuck pending full analysis megapost (this'll take some time...)

[Wisdom]

maria is a traitor if shes scum
you said lynching traitors is not a priority
so why is maria more interesting right now

this is the first i've heard of it

explain?

jjd's point about maria's vote
maria was not activating the beef wagon knowing it's the rolecop

[Wisdom]

also maria most likely doesnt shoot the ic either

[Mathdino]

i'm not seein it
she didn't really hardpush beefster like i've seen her hardpush other people

it almost seemed more of a protest vote to thor

yknow, the standard "scum staying offwagon" play

Edit: yeah that's the thing i'm looking for

[Wisdom]

yes thats what i said too, that there wasnt a real push there
but her vote is what made beef a possibility and she didnt really have to vote beef there

[Mathdino]

no sell on the uglyduck meta, sorry wisdom

he has no completed scumgames to compare to

2) Here is the comment everyone will ignore - I have had a hell of a week at work. I am here. Not caught up. Literally sitting at the desk doing it now. Sorry for absence.

occam's razor is that he's actually just busy IRL

like, brass is playing against his town meta, but he's also clearly busy IRL so that doesn't make him scum at all

[Wisdom]

hes still scum either way

[Wisdom]

meh
i suppose the worst as main scum with maria or esp as traitor isnt impossible
neither have said a word about him

[Nauci]

Had a write up but decided y'all don't need to read my thoughts because you already sorted me

Town

:

Jmo - Our hero IC
Nauci - Innocent 'lil me
Thor - Hero IC's pro bodyguard sidekick

Towny

:

JJD - If JJD is scum then I give up because he's too good

Townish

:

-The Worst - not really seeing scum TW
-MariaR - weird hunch

Unsorted

:

-Brassherald - conflicted between town lean and scum lean

-Wisdom - I don't fucking know I can't read this at all
-Espeonage - I don't fucking know here either

Mathdino - I keep moving between towny and unsorted because I'm so conflicted for a bunch of reasons I'm too lazy to write up

Scummy

:

-UglyDuck - lurkscum

Beefster - I want to say skum for not knowing I was even in the game but no. completely null at this point, just a string of reads lists.

Based on how fake beef's comment on Math was, it feels totally plausible that this ploy was contrived. UD commenting on it makes it sound worse to me.
Read list was towny but that was also 400 posts ago.

Scum

:

-Beefster

Not-OG-scum

:

-Math
-Wisdom

[Wisdom]

-Brassherald - conflicted between town lean and scum lean

i think brass has a pretty scummy playstyle but his beef push was genuine

[Wisdom]

-The Worst - not really seeing scum TW

what does scum tw look like?

[Nauci]

Does prod timer reset after night phase?