Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Scioness Sajj]

@assemble v/la for the weekend

I'll comment on things that happend monday

ofrhz I want you to answer my questions about ruru

[ofrhz]

ofrhz

1. what thoughts has ruru presented in quoting those two things?

She thinks you had a real incentive to target Mathdino last night. Because Mathdino had singled you out as the next player to lynch.

2. could you tell me how her passive charcter affects her play?

it boils down into not always starting threads of conversation unless she's directly asked or engaged
- 1409 is a great recent example - pin has ruru as #1 scum, and her response is just like "I don't agree but ok." This is similar to how she reacted D1 when I voted for her for the 2nd time. People have found ruru scummy for how she reacted to my vote earlier, so if she were scum, I feel like she would've changed her reaction in 1409 to avoid further suspicion and engaged with pin there. But she didn't, and this consistency makes me think this is part of her personality.

[Assemblerotws]

Vote Count 2.08

skitter30 [3]:

Oxy, pinturicchio [L-2]

ruru [1]:

Scioness Sajj

Oxy [1]:

skitter30

Scioness Sajj [1]:

ruru

Not Voting [1]:

northsidegal, ofrhz

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2018-04-21 13:00:00) on

April 21, 2018

.

[ruru]

I had no problem following Drixx's thoughts in 254 and I think Oxy took it out of the context/misread it and ofrhz panicked? I didn't like his reaction to the posts connecting him with Oxy (on which he has a townlean/townread? i'm not sure) and he went with some posts that were putting you in the spotlight (pin had his scum pool {you, oxy, ofrhz}) and he quoted 268 yet he didn't really find a reason to interact with you all this time? Seems like distracting in a way 'look at her she is scummy, not at me'.

I will add more on this when I will get to catching up and answering things from last night.

Do you mind also answering:

1. What made you suspect Oxy+ofrhz?
2. What did Drixx's post mean to you?

[northsidegal]

Wait lol

[northsidegal]

Skitter is probably town

Did she claim vt at L1 or beforehand? Scum almost always claims pr at L1

[northsidegal]

Thought experiment, skitter is town, so is oxy and so is ruru. Who's scum?

[northsidegal]

2 of pintu / scioness / ofhrz then

When I have time I'll review to see if any of those make sense / which make the most sense

I suggest you all do the same when you can, would be interested too see what others come up with

[northsidegal]

I mean that definitely goes against my preexisting reads but I think it's an interesting avenue to go down

[Oxy]

soft vt claim was 914 At the time she had 2 votes on her, and her wagon never got past L-2, once with pin, oxy, mathdino on the wagon, and once with oxy, pin, ruru, and then again with oxy, ruru, pin after pin's wagon hop.

Why does it matter?

Gut feels you're right about skitter and that team is exactly scioness + ofrhz.

Brain says skitter is scum.

[Oxy]

I really think that their votes in posts 1023 and 1026 make pin + ofrhz unlikely.

[ofrhz]

like what if it IS Sajj + pin

and one of them is pushing skitter and the other isn't? or maybe NSG is scum.

I also thought about the hypothetical of town ruru/skitter/Oxy

Currently going through pin and Scioness's 1v1 yesterday. Haven't gotten far though. pin's case on Scioness was a little weird and relied on Oxy v Scioness being SvT and the rest of their interaction is very difficult to get through

[Oxy]

ah sorry, meant to say team is exactly scioness + ofrhz or scioness + pin. derp

[ofrhz]

Why can't it be Scioness and pin?

[ofrhz]

oh geez I can't fucking read

[northsidegal]

soft vt claim was 914 At the time she had 2 votes on her, and her wagon never got past L-2, once with pin, oxy, mathdino on the wagon, and once with oxy, pin, ruru, and then again with oxy, ruru, pin after pin's wagon hop.

Why does it matter?

My initial sense was that an earlier vt claim would've been a play for the towniness of that claim to not get skitter lynched in the first place, whereas an L1 vt claim would be far more towny. Wondering if my intuition is correct there / how much we can trust the claim to be towny.

Gut feels you're right about skitter and that team is exactly scioness + ofrhz.

Brain says skitter is scum.

My gut is screaming 7 different things at once in five different languages

[Oxy]

Here are the votes relevant to skitter's wagon from D1 in case you want to read more into them. There were no votes on skitter prior to this wagon.

post voted voter
845 Skitter30 Pinturicchio
880 Skitter30 Oxy
914 vt soft claim
922 Skitter30 Mathdino
985 UNVOTE Mathdino
1014 Skitter30 Ruru
1026 Ruru Pinturicchio
1030 Skitter30 Pinturicchio
1039 Drixx Oxy

day ended with ruru and pin voting skitter.

[Scioness Sajj]

Thought experiment, skitter is town, so is oxy and so is ruru. Who's scum?

I like this idea.

[Scioness Sajj]

I had no problem following Drixx's thoughts in 254 and I think Oxy took it out of the context/misread it and ofrhz panicked? I didn't like his reaction to the posts connecting him with Oxy (on which he has a townlean/townread? i'm not sure) and he went with some posts that were putting you in the spotlight (pin had his scum pool {you, oxy, ofrhz}) and he quoted 268 yet he didn't really find a reason to interact with you all this time? Seems like distracting in a way 'look at her she is scummy, not at me'.

I will add more on this when I will get to catching up and answering things from last night.

Do you mind also answering:


1. What made you suspect Oxy+ofrhz?
2. What did Drixx's post mean to you?

i sort of do. answers to both questions are in my iso that you have been allegedly reading
1. this have been talked about in detail. a whole convo between me and ofrhz. also the answer to this in the quoted post.
summary: ofrhz reaction to said post and the way he was talking to me earlier

2. if you are asking how I understood it, it has also be answered by me. someone connecting them at the hip was pintu and the rest is pretty self explanatory I believe.



will you answer that one question I have asked you about NSG? or if you don't like it just share your read on NSG, thanks.

[ruru]

Okay here's my take on plausible scumteams. I'd rather not exclude half the players from consideration though

Oxy+skitter: don't think so
Oxy+SS: don't think so
Oxy+pin: less likely
Oxy+ofrhz: plausible
Oxy+NSG: plausible¹

skitter+SS: plausible²
skitter+pin: less likely
skitter+ofrhz: somewhat less likely³
skitter+NSG: plausible¹

SS+pin: less likely
SS+ofrhz: plausible
SS+NSG: somewhat less likely⁴

pin+ofrhz: somewhat less likely⁵
pin+NSG: plausible

ofrhz+NSG: plausible

¹I can totally see scum bussing their partner on day 1 for active lurking, not reading the thread, etc. NSG is "fine" with the skitter wagon today, but she isn't voting on it despite scumreading skitter. NSG's day 1 vote on Oxy also seems non-indicative to me.

²Even if they're defending each other, maybe they think it will help them lynch town today. It gets kind of WIFOMy and I'm not sure if playing this way is really that risky compared to the alternatives. They could plan to lynch me/Oxy today, bus each other tomorrow, and it would be lylo on day 4. If everyone is saying that they wouldn't play this way because one red flip incriminates the other, then, well, it doesn't. Also this gets a lot more weight than it would otherwise because I think they're more individually scummy than the others.

³SS townreads skitter, NSG like never votes, and based on his own posts about me I think ofrhz knows I wouldn't hammer skitter in this situation. So she was very likely not getting lynched and he may have known it. Actually probably super +EV for this scumteam for him to vote if they thought it out like that considering the worst case is probably ofrhz goes to lylo with towncred. The only reason I see this as somewhat less likely at this point is that it requires them to think of and agree with the ideas that I'm mentioning here

⁴There's a possibility that crossed my mind that NSG is constantly AFK in daytalk and SS was recently yelling at her trying to get her attention. I read a game elsewhere once where one of the scums was trying hard in daytalk to coordinate things and his team was just not reading it. This would make 1371 740 etc. read differently.

⁵One possible explanation for the wagon on me is that they wanted to PR hunt and they were convinced that skitter and Drixx were both VT (note 981 was also made before these votes). Also notable that pin's entrance where he sussed Oxy+ofrhz+me and wanted to lynch Oxy first would lead to lynching me and not ofrhz if Oxy flips green.

[Scioness Sajj]

I was writing an answer for ofrhz but there is storm and I lost internet

[ruru]

soft vt claim was 914 At the time she had 2 votes on her, and her wagon never got past L-2, once with pin, oxy, mathdino on the wagon, and once with oxy, pin, ruru, and then again with oxy, ruru, pin after pin's wagon hop.

Why does it matter?

My initial sense was that an earlier vt claim would've been a play for the towniness of that claim to not get skitter lynched in the first place, whereas an L1 vt claim would be far more towny. Wondering if my intuition is correct there / how much we can trust the claim to be towny.

This is how I see it also, especially considering soft claiming VT at L-2 doesn't expose scum!skitter to CCs. Like VT, PR, and scum should probably all make that play I think?

[Scioness Sajj]

Claiming VT as scum doesn't expose you to cc at all period

Pr shouldn't fake claim idk why do you think they do

[ruru]

NSG, what made you scumread me and skitter?

[Scioness Sajj]

Ruru I don't really care about the rest right now

Gimme your nsg read please