Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Scioness Sajj]

I also like how confident you were when having your 1 v 1 wth skitter

but when you are voting me you are fencing so hard

[Scioness Sajj]

i don't think pintu could be bussing here

he has gained stonger townreads recently

[Scioness Sajj]

I also hope you will be around more nsg

We do need your contribution

[Assemblerotws]

Vote Count 2.12

ofhrz [3]:

skitter30, Scioness Sajj, pinturicchio [L-1]

Scioness Sajj [3]:

ruru, Oxy, ofrhz [L-1]

Not Voting [1]:

northsidegal

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2018-04-21 13:00:00) on

April 21, 2018

.

[Oxy]

@NSG I'm not sure if you caught this. I've given intent to hammer Ofrhz in approximately 26 hours.

You said that you prefer either pintu or ofrhz lynch to scioness lynch

I am understanding you to mean that you are okay with me hammering, so tell me if you're not.

I'm also understanding Ofrhz to be claiming VT in his discussion of readjusting reads after his flip

If anyone else has a problem, now would be the time.

[ruru]

Do you actually think we win the game by lynching ofrhz though?

I kind of want to see what skitter has to say today because I feel like ofrhz is a significantly worse lynch than SS and she was expressing doubts yesterday.

Like, I feel like SS is pretty scummy and apparently only 2 other players want to lynch her, one of whom is lynching in self defense? And the ofrhz wagon formed pretty easily. I don't know

And pin/NSG can you please explain why you think SS is not a good lynch

[pinturicchio]

I think Scioness is not a good lynch because I think Scioness is town

[ruru]

Does it concern you at all how many people are willing to lynch ofrhz when there isn't really a strong case against him

[Scioness Sajj]

Does it concern you at all how many people are willing to lynch ofrhz when there isn't really a strong case against him

Does is concern you at all how many people are willing to lynch me when thee isn't

really

a

strong

case against me

[Oxy]

@ruru I think we have wagons on the two players with the highest scum equity in the game. Could you remind me your current reads on Pin and Skitter so that I can take them into account? I just don't want to look stuff up right this second.

---

Oxy -

Town

Ruru -

My strongest town read

NSG -

Mathdino's whole shtick is self appraisal, he is very proud of his NSG read, and he must have had 90%+ confidence in his NSG read this game(or he wouldn't have sheeped NSG's somewhat confident read on Pinturicchio.) Not sheeping Mathdino on this read 100% seems bad because he has a far greater ability to read her than I can hope for in this game.

Skitter -

My gut, Mathdino, and NSG are all town reading skitter. I can't remember off the top of my head what your current read on skitter is, but I don't think you have bigly confidence in this read right now? Correct me if I'm wrong

Pinturicchio -

My weakest town read, but he is an enigma

---

Now, without going into reads at all, PoE is exactly Ofrhz + Scioness

Take out my lowest two town reads, and teams I will consider include:

Pin + Scioness
Skitter + Ofrhz
Scioness + Ofrhz
Pin + Skitter
Scioness + Skitter

Obviously, from this perspective Scioness is the optimal lynch

But that gives zero weight to the skitter and Pin reads

So when those are taken into account, Ofrhz and Sajj are pretty close to equally good lynches.

p.edit I think PoE + Game fatigue are why you haven't seen a case on Ofrhz.

[Scioness Sajj]

why do you add yourself to your readlist tho

[ofrhz]

So if I flip town, your next target will be Scioness.

And if I flip scum, your next target will be Scioness.

...doesn’t sound like we have equal scum equity.

[Oxy]

I didn't think about it much. Seemed good for the sake of completeness - list your givens and all that.

Why do you think I did it?

[Oxy]

@ofrhz ah, no, that's not the defacto lynch

If you flip scum, yes scioness is the lynch followed by skitter if scioness flips town

If you flip town, we are in lylo and possible teams include:

Pin + Scioness
Pin + Skitter
Scioness + Skitter

So, no, there is no obvious lynch if you flip town.

[skitter30]

I don't really think we have two wagons on scum right now.

[Oxy]

@skitter30 do you think we have two wagons on town?

[ofrhz]

Yeah you’re right. Forgot about pin and skitter possible team

[skitter30]

Probably not.

Svt
Tvt
Svs

Is what I think the alignment of the lynches are from most to least likely.

If it was svs I think one of them would be hard-bussing the other for the towncred. Neither of them seem to be doing that.

[Oxy]

I think Sajj is confident Ofrhz is scum

@sajj is this the case?

[ofrhz]

Out of those three I still think I feel the worst about lynching scioness.

Can you elaborate on this

[Oxy]

I guess I'm also just not sure what you define hard busing as.

I would have considered sajj's vote a pretty strong bus (assuming both scum, obv), but you obviously don't

so let's get a definition =)

[ofrhz]

We’re not both scum. If you look at our interactions, how likely is it that we’re on a team?? She talks to me the same way she talks to you and ruru.

[skitter30]

In like an hour cuz I have class now.

But basically if it were svs I think she'd be pushing for ofrzh more strongly right now, given that there's intent and the competing wagon is herself. Might as well get that distancing in if it looks like the options are ofrzh or herself.

Gamestate doesn't feel like svs right now. Don't know if I can explain that better.

[Scioness Sajj]

@oxy Saw it done by other people and was curious why they do that. seems counter-intuitive to me.

[Oxy]

@sajj I think most people do it in a very tongue in cheek fashion