Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Meji Fan]

Nauci - that was after I started noticing you

[Thor665]

@Meji - who is your current top scumread and why?

If your answer is 'none at all' then could you please describe your current strongest read and why you have it?

If your answer is 'I have none' could you please describe your plan on how you foresee changing this?'

[DirtyDishSoap]

Updated reads

-Can't really read Irrelephant tbh. Too polite. I don't do well with that kinda nice. Freaks me out.

-Shit lookin' worse for Meji but that's from just 1 post so who the fuck knows

-Thor looks townier to me but I am clouded by the constant I'M AN IC AND I DON'T LIE stuff

shit fuck fuck been bleeding this whole fucking time analysis post tomorrow

Is...Swearing new for you or something?

I really don't like to pry and I'm saying this in general concern from one fellow human being to another...Maybe you should replace out if your health is in poor condition and focus on yourself rather than an online forum game?

@Everyone
Sorry my activity has been close to non-existent. I'm lylo in one game, and close to deadline in another that requires most of my attention. I'll be sure to update sometime today/tonight when I get the chance.

[mhsmith0]

Friendly mod warming

Subject: Discussion of Ongoing Mafia Games is Not Allowed

Discussion of Ongoing Mafia Games is Not Allowed

Recently we have had a spate of people discussing ongoing games. Though this has led to a record number of ongoing game bans, there may be a perception that there is some wiggle room when it comes to discussing ongoing games. This post is to tell you that there is not.

It does not matter if you are dead.
It does not matter if you don't think it will affect a game.
It does not matter if you aren't in the game.
It does not matter if you are posting about a game taking place on another forum or posting about an MS game on another forum.
It does not matter if you are moderating the game in question.

Discussing ongoing games by quoting or otherwise referring to an ongoing game is forbidden. There is no clever way around this rule. Don't try.

If you are unsure whether something violates the rule against discussing ongoing games, please don't hesitate to contact a listmod.

THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES FOR YOU

Discussing ongoing games may result in a full game ban. This will mean that you are force replaced out of all your games, and you will not be allowed to replace back into them at the end of your ban. Further bans will be far harsher, including and up to a permanent ban from the site.

Game Moderators: Take IMMEDIATE action.

Game moderators are expected to step in and take immediate action when players discuss ongoing games in the game thread -- at least a public warning in the thread not to discuss ongoing games. This is not optional for the game moderator. You may not, as a game moderator, allow people to discuss ongoing games in your thread unless the other game allows for it explicitly in the rules.

Exceptions

There are three primary exceptions.

Communications with authorities

You may PM, IM or otherwise contact the game mod(s), listmods who aren't involved in the game, and admins who aren't in the game. Likewise, listmods and admins will sometimes discuss ongoing games for administrative purposes.

The Game Allows Outside Communication

Where a game allows communication, it may be allowed. This must be EXPLICITLY stated in the rules (and as a listmod, we'd appreciate it if game mods would give us a heads up when this is the case).

Please note that a game mod may allow communications about his or her OWN game to be discussed elsewhere, but he or she may

NOT

allow discussion of other ongoing games in their thread.

Discussions about Activity

Players may discuss activity in other games in a general sense, including counting how many games a player is alive in. However, this may not mention ANYTHING of substance.

OKAY:

"Zoraster is alive in 4 games and is posting in those games, but he hasn't posted here in 3 days."

NOT OKAY:

"Zoraster is alive in 4 games where he's posting lengthy posts. <The violation here is mentioning that the posts are LONG. This is a substantive statement.>

OKAY:

"I'm alive in 3 games, and I'm having trouble keeping up with all of them."

NOT OKAY:

: "I'm in LYLO in a game, so that's taking a lot of my time." <The violation here is mentioning that you're in LYLO. This is a substantive statement.>

---

This isn't a hard rule to stay on the right side of the line on. The listmods would like to never have to take action again. Please don't try and toe the line on ongoing games.

[Irrelephant11]

I lied again (not a great thing to do as town, I know). I will make one more post defending myself. It's short: You will note at least 5 players have questioned me (Irrelephant 64; James 50; Flickr 45, 57, 81; Nauci 44, 65; Meji 40). Nobody else has defended. I personally would find that comforting if it were a different player. But you make of it what you will.... Im going to be offline for a few hours. Please dont wagon me before I can respond to anything more if needed.

Soooo "I lied again" is really not a great start for a defense? Especially since Thor said in his first IC post that lying is strongly discouraged for town players. Feels like maybe you feel caught. I'm also not clear on what your other point is here. . Areyou saying that if you were mafia, someone would have come to your defense by now? Another explanation could be you're mafia, told your partner "don't defend me", and then tried to use that as your alibi.

FoS Teacher

Elephant - I may be the kg ew Cedrick, but even I cant derive much meaning from the two posts he left. People replace out, it happens.

Sorry, I really don't know what you're saying here? The typo is making the sentence structure unclear.

Updated reads

-Can't really read Irrelephant tbh. Too polite. I don't do well with that kinda nice. Freaks me out.

-Shit lookin' worse for Meji but that's from just 1 post so who the fuck knows

lol I guess I'll take the compliment?

What about Meji's post makes them look worse?

I'll be sure to update sometime today/tonight when I get the chance.

Great! when you do, can you make sure to comment on Teacher, JB, and Thor? Pretty sure among te three of them there is at least one Mafioso.

[Thor665]

Great! when you do, can you make sure to comment on Teacher, JB, and Thor? Pretty sure among te three of them there is at least one Mafioso.

Are you claiming higher odds than the random chance of 1 mafia in any random grouping of three, or no?
If yes - what makes you come to that conclusion?

[Irrelephant11]

Just a quick reply for now while I chew over everything new:

Irrelephant - I doubt that Thor/James is the scumteam. I agree that James' behavior leans scummy, but Thor's rigorous replies draw too much attention to that, whereas a scum!Thor would, I think (based on Newbie 1856 where he was scum with DirtyDishSoap), more subtly shade James while giving him less attention.

My inclination is to say James vs. Thor is either scum vs. town or town vs. town, because if Thor is scum I feel like it would make more sense to push James' mislynch rather than keeping his vote on Nauci.

On the other hand, I agree with Nauci that scum IC is scary. :/

(emphasis mine)

How does Thor's new vote for JB change this perspective?

VOTE: James Brafin

And I'm going to unvote because really, there is no reason for my vote to be where it is right now.
UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.

I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,

So you ARE misrepping.
C) NO! Just because something "changes the game" doesn't mean we should care as town. Aesthetic "changes the game" but does town care? No. The same is true of multiball (only scum cares then), and I'd argue the same is true of daychat.
Now totally confident this is scum.
VOTE: Thor

This makes me feel even more weird about JB vs. Thor. Lik eI want Thor to be town because town IC is easier to swallow but this weird vote dance is making me really uncomfortable. I feel like at least 1 of these 2 is likely mafia. Also I kind of feel like JB is just "suspecting" whoever says they suspect him? Which maybe a townie player would do that too but it if it's coming from town, it's not really playing to win (statistically, at least).

Hm. It seems like ya'll place votes on scummy players for more information and responses, even if you're not 100% sure who's mafia?
VOTE: James Brafin

Also, JB,

Spoiler:

in reference to formatting your posts - maybe stop using quotes? You can use {post}85{/post} (but with brackets) to just link to the posts you want to talk about, without worrying about the possibility of your new text mixing with the thing you're quoting.

[teacher]

Quick responses and updated 66 for what they are worth.

Responses

Friendly mod warming

Ooooh I feel so warm. .

IC, is there a normal for voting here? Like, should I always be voting the person I most thinkis mafia? Or only when I'm sure?

IC question Thor may have missed (or I missed a response). Im equally curious.

-84 teacher what do you mean about 5 players questioning you? What are you speculating/implying?

I mean at least five players had FoSed me (enough for lynch if votes followed), but at that point no other player was actively either defending me or trying to point elsewhere.

Soooo "I lied again" is really not a great start for a defense? Especially since Thor said in his first IC post that lying is strongly discouraged for town players

I was trying to be funny. I wrote a post immediately after saying (in 82) that I wouldnt defend again. As for your point about telling partner not to defend me, its possible, but I think less likely. Plus I have received some halfhearted defense now.

In post 95, Meji Fan wrote:
Elephant - I may be the kg ew Cedrick, but even I cant derive much meaning from the two posts he left. People replace out, it happens.

Sorry, I really don't know what you're saying here? The typo is making the sentence structure unclear.

I think he was referring to my 66 (not you), when I suspected some power role of some kind because Cedrik posted then left.

my updated reads

- text only where read updated.
2.

Irrelephant

: I agree with nauci 97, very polite and so slightly difficult. Nonethless Im inclined to see the vote mechanics question in 80 as townie, likewise the questioning/FoSing of me and throwing out theories. Slight townread.
3.

James

: Continued townread, but I really question the vote and logic on Thor. I am just missing something here, and it seems to be based on what scanned to me as a clear joke. Please keep posts readable?
4.

Flicker

: From slight town read to nullread. Basis 57 notes who was AFK and asks for participation. But then has only provided 2 contributions in a day, one of which (81) largely repeats his suspicions of me from 45 and 57, only adding a DDS townread (based on what?).
6.

Nauci

: Appreciate continued contributions. Didnt see or understand explanation of contradiction between 13 and 18 -- you pose the question of whether to claim, then discourage discussion of it.

[Irrelephant11]

@Thor, I mean I think it's clear that I suspect the three of you the most so far? Randomly, any group of 4 I name will have one mafia in it. After playing for a bit, I do feel like I can name a group of three likely to have one mafia in it. I want to know if DDS sees things similarly.

[Thor665]

@Thor, I mean I think it's clear that I suspect the three of you the most so far? Randomly, any group of 4 I name will have one mafia in it. After playing for a bit, I do feel like I can name a group of three likely to have one mafia in it. I want to know if DDS sees things similarly.

So it's a claim of random chance?

[Thor665]

I also agree that you kind of awkwardly connect me to JB for reasons I still don't grok.

[Irrelephant11]

What? No, not random chance. I've narrowed down who I think is suspicious. Obviously I'm not certain which is mafia, so I'm asking DDS (and anyone else who is reading this, especially TGP who should talk more) to give their input on if they think I'm right, if so which one is mafia, etc. etc.

Also I'm not trying to connect you to JB, necessarily. Ijust feel like your argument is weird, feels like it includes a scum, and could possibly include two (in a let's-fake-everyone-out-by-arguing strategy way).

[Irrelephant11]

I also agree that you kind of awkwardly connect me to JB for reasons I still don't grok.

Agree with who?

[Thor665]

Agree with you about what you're advancing.

So basically it's just "I suspect three people, two of them as a scum team, so think at least one scum is in there"
Wouldn't the theory scumteam mess with that average?
Like, are JB and I both scummy regardless of if we're partners, or is one (or both) of us only scummy in connection with the other?

[Irrelephant11]

The former, though if one of you is town I am currently leaning towards you.

[Thor665]

How am I scummy if JB isn't my partner?
I have seen no evidence of that thought coming from you, did I miss it?

[Nauci]

I have an autoimmune disorder that isn't life threatening at all but a giant fucking pain in the ass

basically I have like 40 canker sores simultaneously right now so I'm in a shitfuck ton of pain and sometimes they bleed a bunch because fuck me that's why

I'm a sickly child so I'm always going through some shit or other and mafia helps me escape, it's just hard for me to play because the painkillers make me super loopy/drowsy and I'm trying to parse JB posts on mobile

hot takes n shit time!

-Meji what was after you started noticing me

-Thor I didn't say you're trying to avoid anything, just that the attack he's using on you gives you room to just keep holding up the ICS DONT LIE flag

IMO town don't have much reason to waffle a lot because they're in the dark on everything anyway and aren't going to be terrified of being lynched. Newbs drawing scum is what makes the nerves kick in high gear, or at least it was in my scum games, and also the games where I nailed a few nervous newbscum asses to the wall. Town have "whatever I'm town so FOS if you wnat to" to fall back on

I consider some part of 61 71 77 and 89 varying degrees of non-answer to answered-but-also-said-i-already-said-it

-hella sussing TGP for 98. feels like pocketing me plus misusing my point about ic stuff to FOS Thor with made up grounds

-teacher I have seen too many games devolve into a billion pages of setup discussion and relying on mechanics via break discussion and i hate it so i pre-empt it by acknowledging that they are a thing during RVS but getting people on board to agree to not do the thing. my question was whether it was the kind of game breaking shit that the old mechanic was in the new one, which makes it more or less annoying to deal with in terms of how heavily its relied on as a crutch

if you have issues w/ JB's logic, why do you tr him? I don't feel like you ever said

-I don't follow irrelephant's theory deets but im down with the fake-argument paranoia, but not as strongly

VOTE: thegoldenparadox

[Thor665]

-Thor I didn't say you're trying to avoid anything, just that the attack he's using on you gives you room to just keep holding up the ICS DONT LIE flag

You did say it was clouding you town read of me - what about it looks scummy if I'm not using it to avoid stuff?

-hella sussing TGP for 98. feels like pocketing me plus misusing my point about ic stuff to FOS Thor with made up grounds

I'm reserving judgement on that until he answers my question.

[teacher]

if you have issues w/ JB's logic, why do you tr him? I don't feel like you ever said

Actively raising suspicions and creating chatter - something that scans as town to me, but only slightly.

1. Has been focused on Thor, sometimes contradicting himself on reasons (I think because just anti-authority). But has also sus'ed/voted you (20), sus'd DDS 31 and Meji 50. Active chatter benefits town.

2. I dont think newb scum would have chat mechanics this annoying, or would have been woodshedded in the scumchat after the first complaints and not tried the second underlining gambit.

That said........its only a weak read because of the contradictions I see within his own Thor argument, not just because I disagree with it.

[Nauci]

didn't say it looks scummy

more that my basis for townreading you might not be as strong as I prefer because I might be over town valuing your responses to JB when they're not necessarily AI

there's no active intent necessary for my caveat

[Flicker]

Great.

Now

more people vote for James? Rude.

Teacher:

1. My first vote concealed my reasons. I tried to pass it off as RVS. The truth is I like short wagons (to -2) because I feel like board reactions are telling. You can see if someone defends, or if someone hops on or off the wagon quickly. Nobody did any of those things in the 24 hours (slight defence as noted, but not significant).

2. My unvote provided some of my real reasons. I didnt think I was getting information (again, nobody on or off quickly, and nobody strong defence). I did not say - but it was one of the reasons - that the vote was hurting the town because it was making me doubt me. Bottom line, I changed because I didnt get the reaction I wanted, but also because I knew I would be low activity and unable to change before a wagon lynched Nauci. My reasoning may well have been poor - I was drunk. But looking at it sober I would likely have done it again. IF I had had more time for analysis at that point, I would have voted TGP rather than simply unvoting, but I fixed that with 66.

Okay, so if I understand you correctly, you think that A) Nobody defended Nauci, which a scum partner would do, so probably Nauci is town, B) nobody changed their vote quickly (either to hop on, which would be a possible scum pushing for mislynch, or hop off, which would be a possible scum partner tell), which yields no info, and C) you didn't want to keep your vote on to prevent a mislynch. This line of reasoning actually seems... fine, if you're town.

Your vote count information explanation also seems... fine, if you're town. As for the player analysis, I agree with Nauci that it's more IIoA than anything (which is what I was trying to get at without knowing the terminology).

Re: post #84 - I don't think the lack of defense for you is necessarily telling, especially because, while a lot of people were suspecting you, not that many actually voted you, so your potential scum partner wouldn't feel that much pressure to help you out.

4.

Flicker

: From slight town read to nullread. Basis 57 notes who was AFK and asks for participation. But then has only provided 2 contributions in a day, one of which (81) largely repeats his

suspicions of me from 45 and 57, only adding a DDS townread (based on what?).

Her, thanks.

A) I also read (and still do) Nauci as town. B) My DDS town read was based on his inactivity in this game vs. his higher activity in Newbie 1856, when he was scum. It seemed like the pressure of being scum motivated him to post, whereas here his lack of posting might be un-pressured town. Now that he's clarified that he's just been busy, I guess I was wrong, which means I fold him in with the other quiet posters as an IDK read.

Finally, C) I may not be posting a lot, but I feel like I'm contributing more productively than you're giving me credit for, and certainly more productively than the other posters I pointed out. I'm not gonna sit in the thread and post constantly, partly because I like to take time to think, partly because I (like all of us) have a life outside this game, and partly because when I got replaced in and posted, I

did

sit around (eagerly) waiting for a reply - and after almost four hours, when the first reply after mine was the vote count, I realized the game was moving slowly, so I adjusted my expectations accordingly.

The game's picked up a bit since then, so maybe I should re-adjust, but I'm not gonna post just to post or casually toss out comments. (For example, my joke at the top could have been a single post after Thor's vote, but I decided to save it because it wouldn't have been very useful.) Frankly, this shading of me feels like grasping at straws to discredit me, and I

really

dislike that.

James:

Why does changing my playstyle entail policy lynching and potentially throwing the game? In fact, why would town care so much about posting style of this form at all? This is a discussion for outside the game, not something to lynch over, and I don't like the fact that you continue to defend it so vehemently. But for your and other's sakes, I'll just underline my comments on others posts from now on.

Thank you - I appreciate the change (even if others have noted continued issues). I don't want to keep talking about this, so this is going to be my last comment, but I foresaw a long game full of the annoyance of reading your posts, and I figured, at worst, town could afford one early mislynch if it meant a better reading experience going forward.

Going to cover a few things here: A) Scum will be confident in a bad read on a few occasions, but only if they are for sure going to get away with a lynch, imo. Why would scum have such extreme confidence in a read that has literally no chance of getting lynched at that point? B) Argument from probability. Just because something is possible doesn't make any of my points less valid.

A) I think scum are more likely to be confident, regardless of circumstance, because they actually are more confident. It doesn't seem like a great idea to express that confidence, but maybe that was a slip. B) Even if your points were ironclad, my issue was that your confidence was suspect, given the silence from so many slots.

You should not be voting just to get others to follow you. Maybe that's not your intention, but it sure is what it reads like.

It's not that I wanted/needed others to follow me, just that - like Nauci said - I felt my vote was better served to double hers up and put more pressure on teacher rather than being the only one on you. Given teacher's posts after that, I feel like it was worth it.

Neither do I in some situations. But the timing of it, the doubt of it, and the lack of hunting before pings me. He went from "Oh, I'm not really doing anything" to "Possible scumteam." It honestly feels like he's trying to set one or both of us up for a fall.

Looking at the ISO, I don't think it was that severe a progression. It's more, "Hey," to, "Here's some thoughts and questions," to, "Oh! What if..."

Irrelephant:

My inclination is to say James vs. Thor is either scum vs. town or town vs. town, because if Thor is scum I feel like it would make more sense to push James' mislynch rather than keeping his vote on Nauci.

How does Thor's new vote for JB change this perspective?

It doesn't, really - in fact, it seems like bad scum play for him to move his vote to James after I pointed how doing so could be scummy.

Everybody else:

I'll move back to voting James if that's the consensus lynch we can get, but for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings. Unless something drastically changes, I'd rather not move my vote otherwise. In particular, I thought about sheeping Nauci and voting TGP, but teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

[Nauci]

teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

Oh shit thank you I actually forgot he voted there

I mean there are very good reasons to FOS both of them but when TGP's only post was about getting his ass handed to him as scum in the game with me, maybe he set himself up to look like a patsy

I'm conflicted because I want to wagon TGP (or Meji) to discourage lurking, but I don't want to potentially fall for a low hanging fruit distraction from my biggest SR

also wtf people how am i the most active poster while fucking dying

thor you've asked questions but I don't think you expressed an opinion on teacher (in fact I feel like most of your posts are self defense) - what are your thoughts here

[Meji Fan]

Thor - who do you think my top scum read is? Are you being obtuse? Who I'm voting for is a hint. But fine, here
Fully 1/3 of the first 24 posts are Nauci, where chatters about this and that. 4 of the first 5 even.
Next page Nauci has 4 more posts before I post my first, I post in 36. Thats like over 1/3 of all player posts from this one person. Very personable. Lots of talk about setup and random things. Not doing much.
I note in that post Nauci is my favorite, and I keep my vote on Nauci.
After I mention this Nauci first does something in 38.
Honestly Nauci 44 is pretty cool, I agree on that
Nauci 47 is a bit of doing something as well
51 doesn't say much other than encouraging others to do stuff
James asked me about my vote, so I explain it anew
More posts just asking for clarifications
Nauci, after my explaining anew finally starts explaining reads in 65 (making a quip about my tea in China remark)
89 Nauci points out are doing stuff, but, thats after Ive pointed out are not many times, which I note in 100


Nauci - you started posting more useful appearing stuff

[Nauci]

I find it hilarious that you SR me hard for not having post much substance in the first 1.5 pages of the game

and even moreso that you're attributing my contributions to this game as purely the result of your heroic arrival and FOS halfway through page 2

and weirdly creepy that 90% of your content has been about me

is this a not scum by reason of insanity play

[Thor665]

teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

Oh shit thank you I actually forgot he voted there

I mean there are very good reasons to FOS both of them but when TGP's only post was about getting his ass handed to him as scum in the game with me, maybe he set himself up to look like a patsy

I'm conflicted because I want to wagon TGP (or Meji) to discourage lurking, but I don't want to potentially fall for a low hanging fruit distraction from my biggest SR

also wtf people how am i the most active poster while fucking dying

thor you've asked questions but I don't think you expressed an opinion on teacher (in fact I feel like most of your posts are self defense) - what are your thoughts here