Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[skitter30]

Note to self for when I have a chance to go back and check the timing:

could be scum!ruru doesn't want to lynch me since I kept on saying people should lynch ruru after me?

I need to go check and see how strongly I'd been pushing that before she voted scioness.

[pinturicchio]

VOTE: Oxy let's go

[Assemblerotws]

Vote Count 2.13

ofhrz [1]:

Scioness Sajj

Scioness Sajj [1]:

ruru

Oxy [1]:

pinturicchio

Not Voting [1]:

northsidegal, skitter30, Oxy, ofrhz

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2018-04-21 13:00:00) on

April 21, 2018

.

[ruru]

VOTE: unvote

I don't CC

SS, why didn't you check me last night?

I'm not voting for NSG because I think it is too late to make that wagon now, solely on activity reasons. We have four days left and people (me included) will be less present because of holidays. Wagon on somebody to gain information right now will only create chaos. I doubt that even if NSG got here and posted more content any of it would be incriminating enough for me or anybody to feel good about lynching her - she is null for me for lack of information and I think she is good player and if she was scum she wouldn’t scum claim or just slip because of a wagon like that.
Wagoning NSG day 2? sure. Wagoning her now? Unnecessary distraction that may get us into last minute lynch this day phase.

If you thought NSG was sketchy enough to check then why wouldn't you want to see this wagon? If you're worried about the NK you could vote without a serious reason.

I'm not sure if I believe this claim yet. And I think scum could just as easily leave crumbs too because I think cop is optimal for scum to fake claim in 2/3rds of the setups and they would know that from the start.

Players who strongly townread NSG: {Oxy, pin, SS}
Players who didn't: {ruru, skitter, ofrhz}

NSG was probably not really lynchable today. I think she's a reasonable choice for scum to fake check.

If SS is scum it would be extremely risky to fake check the other scum so I guess NSG is town either way?

I think JK should CC if there is one.

I mean, game is almost solved from my pov.

nsg and me are town. so I need two obv!town people and I have perfect poe with one mislynch.

The game is also almost won for you if you're scum and everyone believes you too...

Spoiler: Setup speculation

If scum are in A, fake cop has a 2/3 chance of being CCed. Tracker is probably a much better fake claim in A, so cop claims are likely real.

If scum are in B, fake cop has a 1/3 chance of being CCed, 0 chance of unintentionally posting a wrong result, and the ability to confuse town. This is probably the best PR for scum to claim. (Neglected: scum may play differently after a lucky N1 rolecop result)

If scum are in C, fake cop has a 1/3 chance of being CCed, 0 chance of unintentionally posting a wrong result, and the ability to confuse town. This is probably the best PR for scum to claim.

Expected number of cop claims if each player is forced to claim (neglected: scum may claim VT or a sub-optimal PR at intent just to be confusing):

T S
A1: 1 0
A2: 0 0
A3: 1 0
B1: 1 2
B2: 0 2
B3: 0 2
C1: 1 0
C2: 0 2
C3: 0 2
Tot: 4 10

Mechanically we shouldn't really believe this claim unless there's evidence of being in A1/A3/B1/C1. We can take lack of JK claim as evidence that A2/B2/C2 are impossible. For the rest of this post I'll assume there's no JK.

Now the expected claims are:

T S
A1: 1 0
A3: 1 0
B1: 1 2
B3: 0 2
C1: 1 0
C3: 0 2
Tot: 4 6

Then it's basically a coinflip +/- reads. If 4 players were confirmed VT though SS would be ~100% town cop

If SS is actually cop

I really don't think it's Oxy+skitter. Oxy+pin? Oxy+ofrhz?? pin+ofrhz?? skitter+ofrhz?? skitter+pin??

... I don't know, I don't think SS is cop.

I HAVENT UNVOTED SCIONESS IS AT L1

Oh pedits

Why not unvote in this pedit though?

[ruru]

Can everyone claim JK or not JK

I'm not JK

[Scioness Sajj]

i wanna lynch ruru

even more now :')

p.edit. yeah like what the hell

[Scioness Sajj]

and nobody claims jk

[skitter30]

I think JK should CC if there is one.

In case it wasn't clear, when we were asking people to cc, we meant that they should claim if they were a cop *or* of they knew a cop was impossible in this setup.

[Scioness Sajj]

If you don't think I'm a cop ruru why did you unvote?

[skitter30]

... I don't know, I don't think SS is cop.

If you think she's lying there's no reason for you to unvote; you probably ought to be pushing for her lynch today

I know that it's possible she's scum fake-claiming, but:

A) I I townread her

B) There's no evidence that she's lying. It's not like its LYLO, and we're probably going to massclaim tomorrow anyways, and if she's lying, it'll come out then I think in nearly all the setups.

C) Her end of day 1 behavior strongly matches the claim

Like there's no reason to not just believe her for now, and sort it out during massclaim if she isn't dead at that point.

[skitter30]

VOTE: ruru

[skitter30]

VOTE: Oxy let's go

This is a really bad vote if ruru is scum btw.

It might just be ruru/pin tbh.

[pinturicchio]

VOTE: Oxy let's go

This is a really bad vote if ruru is scum btw.

It might just be ruru/pin tbh.

You can ask me why I'm voting Oxy instead of keep "losing your townread on me"

[ruru]

i wanna lynch ruru

even more now :')

p.edit. yeah like what the hell

Okay, but can you answer my questions?

If you don't think I'm a cop ruru why did you unvote?

Because I don't know, and I don't want you anywhere near quickhammer right now if you're actually town

[skitter30]

Ok, why are you voting oxy?

[pinturicchio]

But yeah sure my other option is ruru so idk VOTE: ruru

[pinturicchio]

Ok, why are you voting oxy?

No no, we can leave it until tomorrow, this game's solved

[pinturicchio]

But yeah sure my other option is ruru so idk VOTE: ruru

EBWOP idc

[skitter30]

Ok, why are you voting oxy?

No no, we can leave it until tomorrow, this game's solved

I mean, you just told me to ask you.

The way you're behaving on this page is fairly parter-indicative of ruru tbh.

Gotta run, I'll be around later.

[pinturicchio]

Ok, why are you voting oxy?

No no, we can leave it until tomorrow, this game's solved

I mean, you just told me to ask you.

The way you're behaving on this page is fairly parter-indicative of ruru tbh.

Gotta run, I'll be around later.

I started playing more aggresively because the game's solved from my point of view. I'm 100% sure about scum!Oxy now, NSG and Scioness conftown, I townread you, we win lynching either ruru, ofrhz or Oxy today and the remaining tomorrow

[Oxy]

I started playing more aggresively because the game's solved from my point of view. I'm 100% sure about scum!Oxy now, NSG and Scioness conftown, I townread you, we win lynching either ruru, ofrhz or Oxy today and the remaining tomorrow

In what world do any of these three people get nk'd tonight?

[ruru]

How is SS conftown in this setup

[Scioness Sajj]

town or scum you don't really have enough value for me to waste a check on you ruru

- getting an actual town block build from confirmed people >>> potentially lynching one scum from a fake town block
meaning if I had to claim today I would still leave one confirmed town person for tomorrow.

I checked nsg because I didn't want to check dino (possible kill) or skitter (in case of nea, and mafia could have killed her to waste a invest result).
if nsg was scum:
a). we could maybe get a lynch without me claming.
b). it would eliminate strong player likely to win game (I have no clue how nsg plays scum)
if nsg was town:
a). I could defend lurker mislynch knowing that I'm right
b). I know she is good enough to win the game or just have an impact
c). less likely to get nk'd

I don't know how you tired to figure out those setup but you are wrong.
In A fake cop get cc'd immidiately in all possible rows.
In B fake cop won't get cc'd only in row 3.
In C fake cop won't get cc'ed in row 3 only.

[pinturicchio]

I started playing more aggresively because the game's solved from my point of view. I'm 100% sure about scum!Oxy now, NSG and Scioness conftown, I townread you, we win lynching either ruru, ofrhz or Oxy today and the remaining tomorrow

In what world do any of these three people get nk'd tonight?

I don't understand your question, I'm talking about lynching, not nightkilling

[Oxy]

I started playing more aggresively because the game's solved from my point of view. I'm 100% sure about scum!Oxy now, NSG and Scioness conftown, I townread you, we win lynching either ruru, ofrhz or Oxy today and the remaining tomorrow

In what world do any of these three people get nk'd tonight?

I don't understand your question, I'm talking about lynching, not nightkilling

You said that we lynch one today, and the remaining one tomorrow.

There are three people in the pool, so this assumes one is night killed?