Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Scioness Sajj]

oof, i do, on another computer.

give me half an hour.

[ofrhz]

@oxy- I remember thinking you would have a stern personality at first. That got quickly debunked as the game went on though

[Scioness Sajj]

also order of appearance if that helps.

[Assemblerotws]

The Mafia of ruru and pinturicchio has surrendered. The Town has won.

[Mathdino]

#ReleaseThePTs

happy page 100 friendos

also scioness i think i townread the first two
already knew you were scum by the third

[Assemblerotws]

Mod topic
Mafia thread
Dead thread

[northsidegal]

i'm on page 91 and responding before reading the thread

just saw that pintu claimed and oxy counterclaimed

the thing i had wanted to say but wait for when ruru checked in was that one of the main "assumptions" i kept talking about was that oxy was either a neapolitan or a cop who had checked ruru, i can go back and quote where that is

[northsidegal]

oh lol mafia surrendered

[northsidegal]

haha wheeeeeeeeeeeeee i'm bad at mafia

[northsidegal]

also order of appearance if that helps.

where's the bird? i liked that one!

[pinturicchio]

Hey NSG, what was that towntell you got early from me, before you replaced in?

[northsidegal]

sorry, have to keep it a secret (and obviously refine it)

[pinturicchio]

That's a shame, really wanted to know what I did

[Oxy]

ruru post in pt: "I am town." I love it lol

[ofrhz]

"hELP" omg this is gold

[ofrhz]

it really sucks for ruru that she was left by herself for so long though

[pinturicchio]

Damn, rereading the Mafia PT, I got right ofrhz, NSG and skitter being VT and Oxy being a PR; we were so close to hit both PRs on the first night, I can't believe how close we were of doing everything right

[Oxy]

you guys played really well. this setup must be massively town sided

[Oxy]

im really glad we ended up with a fire drill with 4 or so days left in d2.

You were right that I needed nsg to do the wagon analysis

but I knew we needed wagons to analyze. You don't know how happy i was when you jumped on the ofrhz wagon, pin

It forced ofrhz to vote ss and then we had two L-1 wagons for basically confirmed nsg.

I wonder, if you had just been afk for a day, does that wagon go away? and then do we scramble to a skitter or ofrhz wagon at the deadline?

[Oxy]

^@pin

[pinturicchio]

I was blinded; I started to believe that NSG could be the second PR, so I wanted to have SS and ofrhz at L-1 to make NSG choose between one of them; if she chooses Scioness, we roleblock you again and kill NSG, ofrhz and ruru the most suspicious after Scioness flip, or maybe I gambit it and claim tracker early to make a 1v1 with you. If ofrhz is lynched, people suspect about skitter again or people suspect me, I claim tracker...

It was the perfect plan, until Scioness claimed Cop

[Oxy]

I was blinded; I started to believe that NSG could be the second PR, so I wanted to have SS and ofrhz at L-1 to make NSG choose between one of them; if she chooses Scioness, we roleblock you again and kill NSG, ofrhz and ruru the most suspicious after Scioness flip, or maybe I gambit it and claim tracker early to make a 1v1 with you. If ofrhz is lynched, people suspect about skitter again or people suspect me, I claim tracker...

It was the perfect plan, until Scioness claimed Cop

Ah, that actually makes a lot of sense!

[AnonymousGhost]

Interesting way to end a game. GG town and Mafia! Both factions played really really good. I hope you guys found my attempt at post break downs helpful.

[Scioness Sajj]

@nsg thanks! the bird on I've got after the game ended I think. I will probably change it back since I'm not mourning the gamestate anymore.

Interesting way to end a game. GG town and Mafia! Both factions played really really good. I hope you guys found my attempt at post break downs helpful.

oh, I almost missed it. It was a good read thanks!

[ruru]

you guys played really well. this setup must be massively town sided

Although I was getting townread at the time until SS outed, I'm not sure if getting townread is the same as playing well though. Like it's a lot easier to get townread if I'm not actually playing toward my wincon? I think that's one of the things I learned from this game. I think there's a lot to improve on even ignoring the losing blunder

If I roll scum in column A again I would need to focus a lot more on defeating PoE and less on trying to act town, because the density of investigatives is too high. The large swing of even one green check is something I didn't really have an intuitive sense of having not really played the game before

Clear (I think) improvement would be just lynching town and ending the day more frequently, even if it makes me look a bit scummy, so that town has less information. I could've hammered skitter, I could've not defended ofrhz, etc.

Less clear improvement would be actively trying to defeat PoE by bussing harder on D2. The thing is we didn't really know there's a cop and it was looking quite likely we were in A2 given that I thought certain cop results probably would have been shared faster (for example, I suspected SS was a PR, and I thought she would have checked me as cop). If we were actually in A2 then risking one of us getting hammered by town would have been pretty throwy but then in A1 we actually have to defeat PoE at all costs.

So, I'm not sure, but in retrospect maybe I should have for example asked pin to put me at L-1 on the early D2 wagon? I think that kind of thing is scary for scum but possibly irrationally scary, especially if we can reasonably predict how certain players will vote. I could softclaim VT and hopefully make a convincing defense. I know Oxy+NSG likely won't vote me in this situation.

3SS townreads skitter, NSG like never votes, and based on his own posts about me I think ofrhz knows I wouldn't hammer skitter in this situation. So she was very likely not getting lynched and he may have known it. Actually probably super +EV for this scumteam for him to vote if they thought it out like that considering the worst case is probably ofrhz goes to lylo with towncred. The only reason I see this as somewhat less likely at this point is that it requires them to think of and agree with the ideas that I'm mentioning here

I'm becoming aware of the strategy in this post I guess but I really overestimated our winrate around the time after skitter stopped scumreading me, so I saw it as a super unnecessary risk and didn't dare try to apply it. I'm still not sure what the right voting strategy would have been on D2

I do feel like A1 at least is hard for scum (but this loss is definitely on me regardless). Or cop in general seems really hard to me, since you don't really have to guess right to get extremely useful information, but the other roles don't do much if you guess wrong I guess?

I feel like we were pretty lucky to block you, like pin was sure you were PR but I was super unconvinced that you weren't bluffing, and you easily could have been so it could have been much worse for us too.