Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Not Known 15]

Here are my suspects so far:
Flicker.
Here I am sheeping the case of Oxy against them.
MejiFan.
I don't like their obsession of Nauci; they seem to focused on them. This frequently happens to scum, there is a difference between town tunneling and scum "tunneling" and this looks like the latter.
James Brafin.
James is flip-flopping their votes and they give me a bad feeling.
VOTE: James Brafin

[Oxy]

@Not Known 15

I like the first two on your list.

Am I making a bad assumption? Is town more likely to come out of the gate arguing that the IC is abusing his position as a way of furthering his scum!IC win con?

And then to have this vote order? Nauci, unvote, thor, unvote, thor, dds?

It's the thor-unvote-thor that you're not liking, ya?

[Oxy]

oh, yeah, and welcome to the game!

[Oxy]

@Not Known 15

I like the first two on your list.

Am I making a bad assumption? Is

scum

more likely to come out of the gate arguing that the IC is abusing his position as a way of furthering his scum!IC win con?

And then to have this vote order? Nauci, unvote, thor, unvote, thor, dds?

It's the thor-unvote-thor that you're not liking, ya?

ebwop: correction bolded.

[Not Known 15]

It's the thor-unvote-thor that you're not liking, ya?

Yes, Brafin says

Vote: Thor665
Fairly confident in this.

then

And I'm going to unvote because really, there is no reason for my vote to be where it is right now.
UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.

I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,

unvoting the top and only scumread without good explanation, what is the town motivation for this?
"Hey, this one is most sus but I will unvote them!" This is likely scum. Did you ever see a townie act like that?

Then Brafin notices the problem, probably, and tries to fix it one post after that:

Now totally confident this is scum.
VOTE: Thor

the progression does not make sense.
Next is this shit:

A) I didn't do it to be annoying; I did it when I quote lots of stuff to make it easier to read. I'm going to take Irrelephant's advice tho and start just leaving the post number and comments. But regardless, this is a massive misrep and Attack on Person. Not to mention we aren't DISCUSSING stratagem, so I have no idea where that came from.
B) There's also an Attack on Person on Nauci. DDS seems to be trying to make players seem inept and their opinion trivial simply on the grounds that "they are bad posters." While the complaints about her being sick are a tad bothersome, they don't warrant THAT.
C) Aren't YOU discussing stratagem in your post, in your paragraph about NOT discussing stratagem? Besides, we are far beyond that topic. Only YOU are still hung up over it; my reasoning is that Thor could make opinion sound like fact because of his IC role. It is NOT a strat discussion.
D) That was obviously a joke, not a scumslip. He's not "lied multiple times," he's making a humorous statement, and I think you know it. This is a crappy placeholder vote.

A refuses to acknowledge that DDS never said that it was scummy, just annoying; and annoying town is anti-town. A massive misrep is far from that.
B refuses to acknowledge that DDS said that it makes them badly readable and annoying, not necessarily scum. An AOP on these grounds- how is it AI?
C looks really like a misrep. DDS told them that they differ on them on the opinion that IC strat is AI/NAI. Additionally, if Brafin continues to use that as argument, why can't DDS tell them that it is in their opinion invalid?
D jumps on a clarified misunderstanding. Why?

Scumlean:
Thor

How did we get there from

totally confident

?

[Not Known 15]

Am I making a bad assumption? Is scum more likely to come out of the gate arguing that the IC is abusing his position as a way of furthering his scum!IC win con?

Yes. It is easy to make a case about that. Very easy. You just need to discredit the advice.

[Oxy]

That is a wall I am happy to read.

I would also like to hear an explanation for James' progression on Thor.

[teacher]

It's time for my daily check-in. Welcome to our two new players. I love your contributions so far -- keeping the game fresh while most of us have died out. I tend to read up around this time and give my two cents worth. Im glad to engage with anything. Heres my reactions and updated reads.

his first reads post on everyone is looking at associations, which is probably bad!town,

Definitely true, I hunt primarily by looking at relationships rather than individual actions alone. Missing why bad!town. Pls explain.

In 169, Oxy put up four Flicker quotes he found suspect. TBH, I didnt find 45 suspect. Why did you? Also, 120 seemed pretty clearly a joke. I can see what you are saying about 81 and 120, though.

As for reads, not that much has changed for me. James and Nauci have slipped a bit, because theyre now being AFK upon some questioning which was counter to their early styles. Irrelephant is getting to be a stronger town read.

Voting. Im not keeping it on slot 8 just because TGP was silent. I debated sheeping on James but by my informal count

James is already L-2

. Im going to go Meji, not because of a strong scumread (heck I defended them in 138) because I want to see more participation from this slot to get a better read either way. VOTE: Meji.

[Irrelephant11]

Hm, so quoting things I like from Flicker might be hard, 'cause some of her posts are long and have complicated shapes. I'm just gonna link and point things out.

57 and 81 show real hunting to me, trying to parse out various players' alignments and not misrepresenting anyone's words to push for a bad lynch.
76 is a good explanation, and helped me see Thor/JB more clearly. Not something I expect from scum who doesn't care mabout my theory if it doesn't affect them?

Mmmmm and then there's a lot of stuff that, without knowing other players' alignments, is hard to nail down. Still, her casual tone, her consistent working out of analyses (as opposed to useless words), etc. make me feel good. I think most of it actually has to do with just not seeing th e scumminess of the things you pointed to? More to come on that in a few.

[Not Known 15]

Voting. I debated sheeping on James but by my informal count

James is already L-2

. VOTE: Meji.

That is correct, but why is this a reason not to vote James to L-1?

[Irrelephant11]

@Oxy,

Spoiler:

Hey, all!

VOTE: James Brafin, partly as a policy lynch because of his posting style, partly because I don't like anyone who has that much confidence on a read this early.

I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet. I do agree with her and Meji Fan that his vote is questionable. I also don't see how there's anything to like (or dislike) about RVS.

VOTE: teacher

Nobody seems eager to follow my James vote, so I'm finally confident enough to put my vote here.

Great. Now more people vote for James? Rude.

I'll move back to voting James if that's the consensus lynch we can get, but for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings. Unless something drastically changes, I'd rather not move my vote otherwise. In particular, I thought about sheeping Nauci and voting TGP, but teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

None of this makes sense from a town perspective. People are voting someone she is confident is scum, but she doesn't want to move her vote back there, but she considered moving her vote to someone completely different because sheeping.

A) I also read (and still do) Nauci as town.

Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team.

in response to that:

A) Ignoring the "partly as a policy lynch", since it's obvious (to me atleast) that that wasn't really the main reason for her vote - it was JB's high confidence that he'd found scum so early, which I also thought was bad.

B)As someone with scum reads on both Teacher and JB, I totally understand doing her best to vote whichever one it seems like town is voting for. Like, enough townies do have to agree at some point, so this doesn't seem to say much for her either way

C) Said in 120 (the same post) that "Now more people vote for James?" was a joke.

D) I feel like I read somewhere on the wiki that copying your towniest read's vote (that's what sheeping is, yes?) is sometimes good strategy? Because if you can get a majority group who are definitely town voting together, the odds of hitting town are much lower than random. Idk, since she didn't actually sheep I don't see your problem with it. What would be the scum motivation for staying on Teacher, or for mentioning-but-then-not sheeping Nauci?

E) "Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team." huh? not seeing this. Or knowing what it means. In fact if anything it seems Flicker has been kind of weirdly consistently confident that Nauci is town all game. What are you saying here?

[Irrelephant11]

ebwop: A)... ...which I also thought was bad - what about this post makes you scum read Flicker?

[teacher]

why is this a reason not to vote James to L-1?

Theres a lot more discussion to be had (I really do want to see more Meji and barely know your playstyle). If hes inno, I dont want a rando hammer to come down days early. L-2 is enough pressure for me; the comment was to signal that I am not opposed to getting on later, but I dont want to be at L-1 on anyone right now.

[Irrelephant11]

Come to think of it, Flicker, why the strong Nauci townread from so early on?

You've "considered sheeping her" twice, and have said she seems towny at least twice with your only reason stated "sick scum wouldn't try so hard". Is that still your reason/is that your only reason?

[James Brafin]

Will catch up and explain my flip-flopping in a bit. Been gone all day, and I have at least 1 paper to write, AND I have a mish-mash game I need to start.

[Oxy]

@Elephant

A) Assuming they are both scum, mentioning the policy lynch allows for easy distancing without much risk, and gives Flicker an easy reason to back away if that wagon picks up steam "I was mainly voting for policy, but I think he's probably town."
Assuming James is not scum, discussing a policy lynch is a great way of looking pro-town without actually having to be pro-town.

B) Here she over explains her vote - "Here is my reason for unvoting. Here is my reason for choosing my next vote." This is also apparent in the first post when she discusses sheeping someone, just to tell us that she isn't comfortable doing that.

C) I agree it's a joke. There are no jokes in mafia. She has a better spot for her vote now, and that's fine. But what is the motivation to remind us that she had her vote there once before, and then to explicitly address why she's not moving it back at that moment?

D) I agree with you, generally, about both sheeping and compromising on lynches as town. However, this is another example of Flicker being overly self-aware of her vote.

E)

[snip]
I was feeling a conflicted null about Nauci, but something about the in-and-out of the hospital and on powerful meds info, and continuing to play through that, makes me think she's town? If she was mafia it seems like those would be more of an issue.
[snip]
I've been thinking of scum teams already, too. After reading teacher's analysis the first time, I thought it might be you and Nauci. But, my reads changed before I posted again, so it wasn't worth mentioning. It's barely worth mentioning now, except to say that I don't think that having a scum team theory is scummy.

You're right, I misread the first part of this post, and thought she was still calling Nauci "conflicted null" at this point.

[Oxy]

Hm, so quoting things I like from Flicker might be hard, 'cause some of her posts are long and have complicated shapes. I'm just gonna link and point things out.

57 and 81 show real hunting to me, trying to parse out various players' alignments and not misrepresenting anyone's words to push for a bad lynch.
76 is a good explanation, and helped me see Thor/JB more clearly. Not something I expect from scum who doesn't care mabout my theory if it doesn't affect them?

Mmmmm and then there's a lot of stuff that, without knowing other players' alignments, is hard to nail down. Still, her casual tone, her consistent working out of analyses (as opposed to useless words), etc. make me feel good. I think most of it actually has to do with just not seeing th e scumminess of the things you pointed to? More to come on that in a few.

Thanks for this. I'm in agreement on your premises, but not on your conclusion so much. I think this is all probably in AvgNewbie's scum range.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 1.04

Oxy (1)

James Brafin ,

James Brafin (3)

Thor665 , Irrelephant11 , Not Known 15 , L-2

Flicker (1)

Oxy ,

teacher (1)

Flicker ,

Nauci (1)

Meji Fan ,

Meji Fan (1)

teacher ,

Not Known 15 (1)

Nauci ,

Day one deadline is Wednesday April 25th, 9 PM PST. (expired on 2018-04-25 21:00:00)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

[/size]

[Flicker]

(Posting this without any links because I drafted this quickly and my internet's been on the fritz, sorry y'all.)

Teacher:

Re: 137 - Bummer. Would have been interesting to see another site's meta, and also means I can't verify what you say. On the other hand, this "differences in meta" explanation would be a weird, detailed lie, so I'm inclined to take your word for it, which also tanks most of my scum-read on you.

Re: 138 - I can follow your logic, even if I disagree with it; reading anything out of a replace out seems like a stretch here. I still don't have any read on Meji (although, as mentioned by Not Known and Irrelephant, I also don't love their tunnel on Nauci). I also don't see politeness (or a lack-thereof) as AI, just a playstyle difference.

Re: 187 - Agree with this.

James:

Re: 143 - I guess what I should have said was that I could follow teacher's argument and would have (barely) accepted the read if it came from town? Like, if Irrelephant had said it instead, I would have gone, "eh, okay?" I don't think it's a great line of logic (note the ellipses before "fine" in both cases), which makes it questionable coming from a scum-read.

Oxy:

Re: 169 - Votes are also for pressure, not just for lynching, right? So that's what I did by moving to teacher and what I contemplated with TGP. Also, I'm not confident in any of my reads - I mean, that's what pinged me about James in the first place.

I also don't see how I "opined" about that scum read. Looking back, I regret even naming them, because I only thought it for about 1 second before questioning the post that made me think that.

Re: 190 - I'm a pretty self-conscious/self-aware person. And, in a game like this, I think more information is better than less. Mentioning my other voting options was also for the purpose of trying to get consensus and move the day forward from lots of single votes to more wagons, and looking for opinions about my options.

Not Known:

Other than your read on me, I generally like your posts so far. Gonna gently shuffle you towards my town read pile.

Irrelephant:

Yeah, sorry, I realize I never really updated my read on Nauci after she tanked my theory on her. I can do an ISO if you'd like, but here are my general thoughts:

First, her early play, while fluffy, still encouraged posting in a way that seems town. I've also pretty consistently liked/agreed with a bunch of her reads & posts. It doesn't hurt that she's also the first person to put forth any reads, and it was on me as town, which warms my heart. Although, I guess I could also be getting hoodwinked the way you're worried

I

might be doing to

you

...

And I appreciate the defense of me, but actually, my initial reasons for voting James were 50/50 policy/confidence. I'm not as opposed to the idea of policy lynches as most people seem to be, especially on day 1 when mislynches seem unavoidably common. I also think voting to pursue that angle (irritating post style) resolved it in a way that just mentioning it w/o a vote wouldn't have. Basically, I think I would have voted on policy alone if nothing else had pinged me. Take that as you will.

Spoiler: My full read list, FWIW

My full read list now:

Town: Nauci & Irrelephant
Town-lean: Thor, Not Known
Null: Oxy & teacher, Meji
Scum-lean: James

PEdit: I doubt moving my vote to Meji (or quiet posters more generally) will prompt them to post, but since it's that, move James to L-1, or just unvote (which is fairly pointless IMO), I guess I'll leave my vote where it is for now? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Oxy]

Definitely true, I hunt primarily by looking at relationships rather than individual actions alone. Missing why bad!town. Pls explain.

If that strategy works for you, then more power to you. =)

I think most players will tell you that trying to judge associations prior to seeing any flips is less effective than sorting players by individual play.

[Oxy]

@Flicker
Could you give me a brief description of your current read on James?

Also, what brought my slot from town lean to null?

[Nauci]

Hey guys.

I'm really sorry for blowing up like that. I had a very, very short fuse for the past two weeks so an irritating post became a total blow up, and that was totally inappropriate of me.

I took some time to cool off (well, that, and Benadryl sleep 23 hours a day), and have finally begun to recover and not be in lvl 9 pain 24/7, so I'll be able to play without being stoned all the time.

Catching up on the thread now but not sure if I have time to respond tonight.

[Nauci]

I think I'm going to take the next day or so to do a complete re-read and evaluation of the game with knowledge of the replacements' posts in mind.

My gut still says teacher though so I'll park here for now.

VOTE: teacher

[teacher]

Overall, putting you back in my town-lean pile.

Im updating my spreadsheet and this jumped out at me. Particularly "putting back." Because in your iso, you had already towned DDS's slot once (81), and further defended it to me (120). Care to explain?

[teacher]

So, as you can tell, tonight I tried to update my association analysis rather than my iso analysis. Doing that made me realize that some players I thought had been contributing alot really havent provided broader reads on more than one or two players. @Thor has only really discussed 3 people. @Elephant has only really discussed four. @Meji takes the cake with only two.

Multiple players (me, James, nauci, flicker) have shared guts on all players, even if its a null. DDS/Oxy is similarly close, only missing not whole (understandably). Talking helps town, so I hope those in the first paragraph will provide some broader reads and explain them (even if they are null). At this point there should be enough to go on to at least provide some views, even if conflicted.

Welcome home Nauci :/