Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Not Known 15]

Any questions?

Yeah. Why is this supposedly scummy?
No, I didn't look in detail why you were scummy yet at that point(except that thor vote trash). My bad feeling when reading your posts was well-justified when I began to read them in detail.

@Not Known

This does not add up.

It is blatantly obvious that 1 is a lie

.It was untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, and because of that you unvoted Thor in one post and then,

in the very next post of the game- not just of yours, the game

you voted thor again. This makes me very sure that your

read progression is made up.

This is simply not true. There were a few posts in between.

Weird. I thought there were none between. I must have read the ISO and then later assumed that.
Yeah I checked it it's not true and my reasoning here is wrong.

[Not Known 15]

I waffled on Thor for two reasons:
1) My vote was helping no one where it was. It was just as untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, when I could be helping town.
2) Other than his "opinions as fact" stuff, there's really not that much hard evidence against Thor on a reread. I got Confbiased on him tho and voted him anyways. I'm beginning to lean town for him now.

1) Except that you did replace it with an unvote. How does an unvote help town more than a vote?
Also, a quick notice- IC's are asked not to lie about game theory. This includes their own opinions about game theory.
As a general advice(coming from a SE not an IC) don't ignore the setup. It can change scum behaviour from what you'd expect.

[Nauci]

Quick notes while I work on my effort post:

-That wasn't a -1 from NK15

-I was null reading JB for a while, then TR because we had similar reactions to DDS non-content post. But I worry that we had that reaction because we were the ones being belittled, and it wasn't actually AI. Despite this previously strong bias for him due to that, page 9 posts gave me very very bad vibes.

I want to wait on a vc to vote because I'm not 100% confident I counted that -2 correctly but consider this intent to -1.

-The first time I was scum was in my 2nd game on my private WoW forum. I had absolutely no idea what I was doing and had all of the wrong ideas for how to appear innocent. But we won because my partner was super experienced and coached over half of my posts via scum daychat. I lost my following game as town to a scum mentorship duo as well.

So while it is difficult to discern here how daychat affects scum behavior, I think it's important to A: note that it probably is improving scum play, and B: take away the potential for a faked "oh scum have day chat?" townslip. I think trying to read associations like teacher is supposedly trying to do is a much worse tactic due to daychat. I think it makes me more paranoid about fake argument theories like irrelephant's. I think scum able to talk about their stuff in day chat means less active discussion in here. But those are hunches and I think daychat value is not agreed upon on MS (I'll defer to Thor here).

Oh and pocketing = ass kissing to try and win someone over, whether by lots of agreement, praise, or TRing someone.

-Oh and I super agree with NK15 about earlier -1s.

[James Brafin]

@James Yeah, I have a question. Why is him scum reading and voting you for something, and then explaining that something, scummy?

To both you and NK15: NK made me scum, and then built his case on why I was scum (which is now falling apart btw). That's why he's scummy; he said I was scum, and then had to defend it, not the other way around; he should have made a case, and THEN scumread me and voted me.

[Nauci]

I mean are we going to debate order of operations or the specifics of the case?

I declare gut reads before I have time to put words to reasons or type it all out all the time. Most people do.

[Oxy]

Quote spoiled to save space

Spoiler:

Then we have a tactic change, and he goes at me with a chainsaw against DDS.
A) Let's make something very clear:

WHEN YOU SAY SOMEONE DOES SOMETHING FOR ONE REASON, AND THEY DIDN'T, THAT IS A MISREP.

I was never trying to be annoying, I never phrased my words to make it look like I was trying to be annoying. So yes, it was a misrep, and an AoP to boot. And since when is annoying town anti-town? I have played with town that made me rage (mulch) but they were still town.
B) It brings in irrelevant personal information or arguments about the opponent, in an attempt to distract either the opponent or the audience. (From the wiki)
An AoP is ALWAYS scummy, because it tries to make other players look bad based on outside information not relevant to the game.
C) No one has continued on the topic of IC strategies. since the first page. Where the frick is this coming from? That is NOT my argument.
D) If he understood that, why did he not move his vote?

I want this lynched so bad it's not even funny.

@Oxy,

A) Ignoring the "partly as a policy lynch", since it's obvious (to me atleast) that that wasn't really the main reason for her vote - it was JB's high confidence that he'd found scum so early, which I also thought was bad.

B)As someone with scum reads on both Teacher and JB, I totally understand doing her best to vote whichever one it seems like town is voting for. Like, enough townies do have to agree at some point, so this doesn't seem to say much for her either way

C) Said in 120 (the same post) that "Now more people vote for James?" was a joke.

D) I feel like I read somewhere on the wiki that copying your towniest read's vote (that's what sheeping is, yes?) is sometimes good strategy? Because if you can get a majority group who are definitely town voting together, the odds of hitting town are much lower than random. Idk, since she didn't actually sheep I don't see your problem with it. What would be the scum motivation for staying on Teacher, or for mentioning-but-then-not sheeping Nauci?

E) "Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team." huh? not seeing this. Or knowing what it means. In fact if anything it seems Flicker has been kind of weirdly consistently confident that Nauci is town all game. What are you saying here?

I would like to point out that don't you think it's weird that Flicker has been that confident on a slot that is rather null? I feel like that's a bit scum-aligned from Flicker; she doesn't like that I'm confident, but then has this weird confidence going on herself, and hers has little basis.

@James I just want to clarify one more time. The line that I have bolded and underlined for clarity, "I want this lynched so bad it's not even funny," is not referencing the discussion of Thor directly above it.
It is directed at the case on NK15 that you lay out towards the end of your post, after discussing Irrelephant's quote and her read on Flicker.

Is that correct?

[James Brafin]

Oxy: Yes.

Nauci: I am afraid, good lady, that we are never going to get along.

[Not Known 15]

In post 214, James Brafin wrote:

I waffled on Thor for two reasons:
1) My vote was helping no one where it was. It was just as untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, when I could be helping town.
2) Other than his "opinions as fact" stuff, there's really not that much hard evidence against Thor on a reread. I got Confbiased on him tho and voted him anyways. I'm beginning to lean town for him now.

1) Except that you did replace it with an unvote. How does an unvote help town more than a vote?

You seem to have missed this question.

[Oxy]

Oxy: Yes.

Nauci: I am afraid, good lady, that we are never going to get along.

Do you think that Nauci is the only person who scum hunts by first getting a gut read, and then building a case?

I'm not arguing as to effectiveness, but I think a lot of people probably build cases that way regardless of their alignment.

Or do you specifically believe that NK15 would not build a case that way as town?

[Thor665]

@James Yeah, I have a question. Why is him scum reading and voting you for something, and then explaining that something, scummy?

To both you and NK15: NK made me scum, and then built his case on why I was scum (which is now falling apart btw). That's why he's scummy; he said I was scum, and then had to defend it, not the other way around; he should have made a case, and THEN scumread me and voted me.

How is this different than what you did with me - announcing a read and then presenting a case later?

[Nauci]

WTH I wrote a quick reads list post after my other ones earlier but it's not here

[Nauci]

Upon rereading the game though, I'm still pretty much having the precise same reactions to that DDS post as JB on more than a personal level. It was a re-entry to the game not with analysis of play and content, but a highly condescending post on posting styles. It was provocative and distracting *and* lacked real analysis, and I was shocked no one else caught the same thing. Sure, I overreacted to it on a personal level, but I stand by my view that it was not by any means a towny post.

I'm fencesitting on JB and am going to reread carefully.

Side note, appreciate the format change JB.

Thor, you've gotten a bit quiet too. What are your thoughts on Meji not responding,

or NK v JB

?

Current reads:

Towny: Thor, Irrelephant

Scummy: Meji, Teacher

Null: Flicker (town lean but points docked for low ish activity)

Null, must re-valuate heavily: JB, Oxy, NK15

^this got chewed up by bad Wi-Fi earlier apparently.

[Meji Fan]

Nauci - scummy from the start, and hasn't done anything to change my opinion.

Irrelephant - not sure

Flicker - flicker Id lean town

Thor - maybe slight town, I can't point why exactly, but I dont think the thor/JB kerfluffle felt like scum . . . .

James feel stronger lean town, do not want a James lynch

I'm not to worried about NK15 having different feels than NK15 predecessor, but, I put the semi in semi experienced. I like replacing in though and I often have different ideas than who I replace.

[Thor665]

Thor, you've gotten a bit quiet too. What are your thoughts on Meji not responding,

or NK v JB

?

I'd lynch Meji.
But I'd also lynch James.
I'm currently voting James.

[Thor665]

@Nauci - also, why are you calling me out for getting quiet when my last post had been only one hour before yours, was game relevant, you only had six more posts than me at that time, I had two posts yesterday, and have posted multiple times every game day except for one?

[teacher]

So to try to move the game along, Im going to do an informal vote count. It is below. James is at 3, Im at 2, anyone else has one.

I am debating moving to James, as I am taking NK and Nauci's point on the advantage of that as the deadline approaches, when the mod hasnt extended. If anyone has counter-arguments, I am open to them - why I am not voting now but declaring intent. Also, my next post will feature what I view as unanswered questions from the last couple pages.

1. Oxy -> Flicker 163
2. Elephant -> James 106
3. James -> Not Known 214
4. Flicker -> Teacher 81
5. Teacher -> Meji 182
6. Nauci -> Teacher 197
7. Meji -> Nauci 12
8. Not Known -> James 175
9. Thor -> James 88

[teacher]

So heres my unanswered questions list.

• Thor -> Mod: Extension please? 166. I'll echo the request, and the length.
• Elephant -> Thor, Nauci: What to make of flips? 207. Meji answered in 237
• Elephant -> Oxy: What do you think of JB following NK? 207. Oxy 212 acknowledged question, but waiting for James, so can now answer.
• Teacher -> Thor: What are your other reads? 208
• Teacher -> James: What is the case on Flicker? 215. Oxy -> James: Please include explanation of overconfidence 218. James promised response 222, but has not yet posted.
• NK->James: How does unvote help town? 226

[Thor665]

So, as you can tell, tonight I tried to update my association analysis rather than my iso analysis. Doing that made me realize that some players I thought had been contributing alot really havent provided broader reads on more than one or two players. @Thor has only really discussed 3 people. @Elephant has only really discussed four. @Meji takes the cake with only two.

Multiple players (me, James, nauci, flicker) have shared guts on all players,

even if its a null.

Since you called it out as wanting an answer - I'll give one.
"If I don't express a town or scum read you can *assume* a null read until updated"
There, now I have given "reads" on 100% of the game.

[teacher]

Since you called it out as wanting an answer - I'll give one.

Perhaps you missed part of my question, since you didnt quote it.

will provide some broader reads

and explain them (even if they are null)

.

Care to explain your nulls? You did so for me 99. Providing the same on other slots could help bring your experience to advantage for town (as I am more and more townleaning you).

Put another way, I highly doubt that you have had no reaction at all to Elephant given the frequency of his posts. Yet you are apparently null. So what has shaded town? what has shaded scum?

[Thor665]

Explaining a null read is like describing the flavor of something that has no taste.

[teacher]

@James, earlier in your ISO you softed a power role. I am putting here publicly that I plan to L-1 you 10 hours after this post. The hammer could come down any time after that, by any one. Best to declare if that soft was real.

Anyone other than James can talk me out of the L-1. I just put some stock into @Nauci and @NK15's comments regarding time before deadline. If the mod extends, I will also not be L-1'ing.

[Oxy]

I don't think anyone should claim unless someone has given intent to hammer.

Also, anyone who quick hammers will be death tunneled by me D2.

[teacher]

I don't think anyone should claim unless someone has given intent to hammer.

Also, anyone who quick hammers will be death tunneled by me D2.

Makes total sense. I was reacting to Newbie 1862 (in the forum) where the cop was hammered d1 for claiming really late, which is why I put a delay even on the L-1. James, Id follow this advice. But I still plan L-1 in just over 6 hours.

[Oxy]

if you think he is scum, you should just put him at L-1.

[Thor665]

I'd actually just like to hear why a 6 hour delay on the L-1?