Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

Intent to hammer in 25.5 hours (my noon on Monday). Sheeping Elephant. If he goes elsewhere, I will too. James and Nauci - you're on one vote wagons, and gone AFK. I know its the weekend which is why Im providing 24+ hours notice. Please come back and play, including the questions directed to you. Im going to be offline in two hours, for 8 hours.

[Thor665]

@Teacher - why make an offer to move to Meji and then abandon it 12 hours or so later even after some people have moved?

[teacher]

why make an offer to move to Meji

I'm on Meji. Id love for people to move there, to spread some pressure around. Id prefer to lynch Meji (or Nauci) than James. But from midday yesterday to today, it didnt feel like the game advanced much. As I said before, James is an acceptable compromise for me. Thus I claim the intent, but tell elephant I will follow him. I will write up my case on James before I go.

[Flicker]

From what I've observed, the site meta here is to call for a role claim with intent to hammer, rather than just setting a time and hammering once that deadline had passed. I know we didn't get an extension, but we still have more than three days, and nobody should hammer without a claim IMO.

Also, even if deadline expires without a hammer, the highest vote-getter is still lynched, right?

@Thor, can you confirm or correct me on both of the above?

[teacher]

Also, even if deadline expires without a hammer, the highest vote-getter is still lynched, right?

If a majority is not reached by the deadline, a No Lynch will occur.

No. There must be a hammer.

As for calling for a role-claim, I purposefully did not do that. I am hoping Elephant realizes he has a block behind him and decides to move elsewhere to share the pressure. I put the time deadline out there so that if there is not movement, James would have time to R/C right before the hammer. But I dont know the site meta here at all, as my play has shown. IC/Thor - can you speak to that meta.

[Oxy]

I agree with that.
The problem is you're basically going 'hey, Thor, unvote the person you want lynched who has lots of votes, and join us on this person you want lynched with far fewer votes!"
To which the obvious reply is - 'why?'

Why should you switch wagons? I made two posts with reasons why I don't think James is scum.

As far as I can tell, you're voting him for unvoting you.

Is that the gist of your scum read on him, or is there more that you could talk about?

Or can you discuss my thoughts on James' slot?

[teacher]

Here are the highlights of my case against James, and why I am willing to compromise lynch him. Please note that he is not my strongest scumread, and I acknowledge some counterpoints not mentioned. I am just justifying my position, and putting these out there since I will be offline for you ALL (including James) to respond to as you see fit.

1. Atmospherics: Criticizes several posts for AoP. But his use of Misrep (e.g., 50, 85, 131, 214) is just that. Plus his reads list 131 has way too many scum reads for the game. Strikes me as someone spreading the suspicion around to see what gains traction for a town lynch.

2. Chat Mechanics: No, Im not going to go into the early red or underlining. Thats NAI, and potentially town as I suggested. But after he was called out for it, and promised to stop, he went back to it -- 222. Strikes me as scum trying to hard to underline something I (and maybe Oxy) had previously townread him for.

3. Case on Thor/Contradictions: I dont mind calling out Thor and suspecting him, as that advances the game. But he repeatedly contradicts himself in the case. Post 30 says that Thor's opinion that town shouldnt care about daychat is odd, but the vote on Nauci is what has him most concerned. But Post 85 says town shouldnt care about daychat, and it (and post 214) say that the biggest issue was opinions as facts. Another contradiction is that he blows Thor's joke way out of proportion (37), something he later criticizes DDS for (131).

4. His votes and reads seem a bit OMGUS. And the repeated references to multiball are just bizarre.

[Thor665]

From what I've observed, the site meta here is to call for a role claim with intent to hammer, rather than just setting a time and hammering once that deadline had passed. I know we didn't get an extension, but we still have more than three days, and nobody should hammer without a claim IMO.

Also, even if deadline expires without a hammer, the highest vote-getter is still lynched, right?

@Thor, can you confirm or correct me on both of the above?

Your second point is just straight wrong. Lack of a lynch is assuredly a thing.

I would say you described the basic concept of how hammering should be done per site meta correctly.

As far as I can tell, you're voting him for unvoting you.

Not sure why - I've never said anything of the sort.

Is that the gist of your scum read on him, or is there more that you could talk about?

My issue is that he is applying tells unequally and also ducking the game.
Doesn't feel like scumhunting, feels like lynch hunting.

Or can you discuss my thoughts on James' slot?

I disagree with your town read - would you really like a blow by blow disagreement of it?

[teacher]

@Mod-Should I take it from the VC that it is a no on the extension (166)?

Since per game rules, I am not allowed to quote Mod communications but am allowed to paraphrase: The mod is right now not inclined to grant an extension.

[Oxy]

I disagree with your town read - would you really like a blow by blow disagreement of it?

Sure, if you've got the time. =)

[Thor665]

I disagree with your town read - would you really like a blow by blow disagreement of it?

Sure, if you've got the time. =)

I think it's a waste of time, but I do have the time, so...

If James is town, there is probably 0-1 scum currently voting for him.

This is a meaningless value call.
I would also note that there's a decent chance that it is also just about as statistically true if James is scum.

Meji stated that they think James is town

but didn't do anything to try to defend him, or push a different read.

For someone who brings up playstyle tells so much, this is arguably a playstyle case.
Have you researched Meji?
Does Meji town normally appear better at pushing a wagon?

If town is feeling this slow, inevitable march towards a lynch,

And no other wagon is gaining traction,

What are the chances we're on scum?

This game reeks of sit back and watch town beat itself!

Well, for starters, there are a few issues here.

1. Maybe you're the scumbuddy and *this* is the defense.
2. Maybe Meji's defense is the defense, and is just a wimpy/poorly done defense.
3. Maybe the scumbuddy is a lurksack - it's not liek everyone is on the wagon or supporting it.
4. Maybe the scumbuddy is quite content to bus at this stage.

So why is your theory the best theory or even the most likely theory?
There is no evidence I see to suggest that your theory is more likely than any of the four I presented, and at that stage it's as equivalent to saying "James isn't scum because I saw a white rabbit today" yeah, sure, that might be true, but it might not.
Doesn't sell me one way or the other.

Scum wants to fit in. Scum tells are usually small variations from the mean.

Truly aberrant behavior is far more likely to come from town. (Such as the text formatting)

His meta is stale, but his last scum game had a number of cringe worthy comments.

Things like, "And that let's scum get away scott free!"

I don't see those here. (Yes, he could have gotten better in his time away from the game.)

I think he's done a lot of cringe worthy things this game.
Also, where do you get your evidence that scum want to fit in?
When I play scum I play to copy my town playstyle.
If my playstyle as town is to be different, and then I try to fit in I'd be easy to catch as scum, yeah?
So...?

Much of what he is being scum read for - his pushes and the reasoning behind them - seem like the natural progression from the playstyle he was using the last time he was active, and is not alignment indicative for him.

I would be interested to see evidence you have of him applying tells unequally as town.
Do you have some/remember some clearly enough to describe them?
Because if not how valid is this meta search to make a value call...?

[Oxy]

It's rather intimidating to see how proficiently you can debate something even when you put little to zero thought into it.

e.g., You nearly had me convinced that there was a similar chance of 0-1 town being on James wagon regardless of his alignment

until I went back and ran the numbers, and realized that if there are 2 scum total, and 1 of them were james, then there would be 100% chance of 0-1 scum being on his wagon. ;P Do you think it is likely that both scum are currently voting for James?

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To your question of fitting in, I should have been clearer. I meant the variation from their mean. And this text formatting is not a minor variation from James' mean. It's a large one.

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What cringe worthy comments has he made this game?

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Aggressively pushing numerous people based on some theoretical understanding of what is and what isn't scummy (e.g., Appeal to authority, assumption before narrative, etc.) is the basis of his game regardless of alignment. It's more toned down here than it was the last time he was active, but this is his playstyle. I think most people are scum reading him for that rather than his unequal application of tells.

But if you point me to what you're referencing in this game, I'll see if I have something exactly analogous from his meta.

Have you looked through his meta?

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You're right, it could be a playstyle tell from Meji. No, I have not researched Meji. Meji is a very compromise wagon for me. I don't think Meji looks townie, and there is very little from them, overall. No one seems interested in wagoning my top scum read, and I don't want James to get through as the wagon of inevitability, so I'm willing to put my resources into better sorting Meji.

[Thor665]

It's rather intimidating to see how proficiently you can debate something even when you put little to zero thought into it.

e.g., You nearly had me convinced that there was a similar chance of 0-1 town being on James wagon regardless of his alignment

until I went back and ran the numbers, and realized that if there are 2 scum total, and 1 of them were james, then there would be 100% chance of 0-1 scum being on his wagon.

Which I'm hoping serves to illustrate the emptiness of your advanced concept - which you're not taking up the gauntlet to defend.

Do you think it is likely that both scum are currently voting for James?

If he's town, then at wagon height and counting the assorted hammer intents - I don't see it as unlikely. I'd probably give it a 1 in 3 chance in that situation.
I'd say it's near to 100% that the above theory would create a group that contains at least one scum to the point you might as well wager money on it.

To your question of fitting in, I should have been clearer. I meant the variation from their mean. And this text formatting is not a minor variation from James' mean. It's a large one.

I also see 0% chance he decided to do it just because he got a scum role PM - so fail to see the point.

What cringe worthy comments has he made this game?

Pretty much anything with the word misrep in it counts.
Also, frankly, the entire concept of claiming I was lying/misrepping theory as a scum plan even in the face of repeated evidence that it would be either something I should be immediately reported for, or something you could safely assess wasn't happening.

Do I need to present more to convince you they exist?

Aggressively pushing numerous people based on some theoretical understanding of what is and what isn't scummy (e.g., Appeal to authority, assumption before narrative, etc.) is the basis of his game regardless of alignment. It's more toned down here than it was the last time he was active, but this is his playstyle. I think most people are scum reading him for that rather than his unequal application of tells.

Whether or not Newbie players are reading him the same way I am for reasons I disagree with is fairly meaningless to me as a reason to either town read him or to move off his wagon.
Am I missing the thrust of your point here?

But if you point me to what you're referencing in this game, I'll see if I have something exactly analogous from his meta.

I have literally asked him about it here;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10122662
He's done more than that one (though I think only one other) so if you need a second example you can always read him over.
Also, in going back to find that post I found a post where I was explicitly defending James' flip flopping to Nauci as not scummy - yet for some reason you thought that was my case against him. Can you explain how you reached this conclusion?

Have you looked through his meta?

No, but I've played with him before.
Can you explain what part of my case you think meta would defeat?

You're right, it could be a playstyle tell from Meji. No, I have not researched Meji. Meji is a very compromise wagon for me. I don't think Meji looks townie, and there is very little from them, overall. No one seems interested in wagoning my top scum read, and I don't want James to get through as the wagon of inevitability, so I'm willing to put my resources into better sorting Meji.

Why did you go and read all these James games to get a meta read and yet aren't doing the same for Meji?
Multiple people (at the very least myself and teacher - and I'll presume James in a world where he's the other option) have expressed willingness to lynch Meji. Why do you think you have no support?

[Oxy]

Okay, thanks Thor. I appreciate you going through an exercise you felt was a waste of time for my benefit.

If you would like any of those questions answered, feel free to repeat them. Otherwise, I'm going to disengage.

[James Brafin]

Kay, just skimmed after two busy days. I'm not sure WHAT everyone thinks I softed, but I didn't. I'm a VT. Hammer as you will. My scumteam remains between Flicker and NK15 and maybe Teacher now too for that bullshit soft claim. Lynch if you want, I'm not backing down and I'm sure that both scum are on my wagon. Have a nice day, and I'll do a more thorough catch-up later.

[Oxy]

@James I think it's much more likely that there is one in {Flicker, NK15} than two.

Are you town reading Meji?

[James Brafin]

Yes. I am also townreading Nauci. Irrelaphant & you, and nullreading thor.

[Irrelephant11]

Using my v short weekend availability to say I’m okay with where my vote. I’ll reevaluate in the morning when I can do ISOs but JB has done nothing to make me feel better about his bad votes, bad arguments, and looking mislynch-happy. See you in the morning if the day is still going at that point.

[teacher]

THx ele. I will give you Monday noon decide if you want to move for any reason. I’d rather pressure meji or nauci but have committed to sheep you.

As for the soft James, I’m on mobile so can’t link but viewed your post saying:>lynch me, “throw” the game< as a soft of power role. Someone on internet can control f you for “throw” and link it if they choose.

James please make the case on flicker and answer nk’s Unvote ?

[Thor665]

a ctrl+f for 'throw' in James' ISO yields this.
I personally don't think he softer anything and I very much don't see how that's a soft even with a squint and a tilt of the head.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10110780

[Thor665]

Okay, thanks Thor. I appreciate you going through an exercise you felt was a waste of time for my benefit.

If you would like any of those questions answered, feel free to repeat them. Otherwise, I'm going to disengage.

I'm fine with the core disengage since it was a thought exercise for you - curious to see if anything comes of it.

I would like you to address why you meta-dove James and no one else though.

Yes. I am also townreading Nauci. Irrelaphant & you, and nullreading thor.

Since you null read me, I'd love you to answer my question to you;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10122662
It would be more helpful to me than you skimming and claiming you're not 'backing down' from a position I'm not even fully sure what it is, nor who is asking you to back down from it.

[Not Known 15]

Kay, just skimmed after two busy days. I'm not sure WHAT everyone thinks I softed, but I didn't. I'm a VT. Hammer as you will. My scumteam remains between Flicker and NK15 and maybe Teacher now too for that bullshit soft claim. Lynch if you want, I'm not backing down and I'm sure that both scum are on my wagon. Have a nice day, and I'll do a more thorough catch-up later.

Did not answer my question, despite me repeatedly stating it. Probably has no explanation on how the unvote would help town because it had no town motivation behind it.
They claimed VT.
I request a hammer.

[teacher]

a ctrl+f for 'throw' in James' ISO yields this.
I personally don't think he softer anything and I very much don't see how that's a soft even with a squint and a tilt of the head.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10110780

That was the post I was thinking of. Perhaps we read things differently. I don’t see how a townmislynch “potentially throws the game” unless it’s a power role. But again I don’t know this site’s meta. Right now James is driving me mad for not defending knowing a hammer is above then.

[Thor665]

His easy answer to that is 'you throw the game when you lynch people off playstyle instead of for reasons they are scum'.

[Oxy]

I would like you to address why you meta-dove James and no one else though.

I've done some very brief poking around in a few people's game history.

James is on the chopping block today, which prioritizes him for sorting.

You asked me specifically about Meji Fan earlier, and I did consider reading her games

But this is her first game since 2011, so I didn't bother.