Open 719: Stack The Deck! (D4)

[Mathdino]

wisdom i'm only wanting to lynch you because you insist on a plan that i know kills either myself or brass

I'm doing the same thing so why aren't you voting me?

because i feel like wisdom should know better while i know town-you makes bad mechanical decisions/arguments by default

[MariaR]

...well fuck you too then
also that's not even TRUE

[Mathdino]

lowkey is true lol

maria how come you didn't self-vote yesterday when it became clear you were the most likely lynch AND you made it clear you believed you shouldn't make it to mylo

i'm not saying you should've self-voted

but i am saying i expect town-you to self-vote in that situation

[MariaR]

lowkey is true lol

maria how come you didn't self-vote yesterday when it became clear you were the most likely lynch AND you made it clear you believed you shouldn't make it to mylo

i'm not saying you should've self-voted

but i am saying i expect town-you to self-vote in that situation

I wasn't done with discussion for the day phase and I didn't trust you to not come in and quick lynch me. When I felt discussion was done and we were mostly on the same page I would've happily self voted.

[Mathdino]

again while that seems reasonable

you have previously self-voted (out of frustration?) in situations where the discussion of the day was not apparently over yet

so what made that situation different

why didn't you get upset

[MariaR]

I wasn't upset I was more content. I wanted to get lynched I don't have faith in my ability as town to be in lylo stuff like that given how the game state looked. I've self voted out of anger before yes but I honestly think I've stopped doing that. If I get upset I might post a bit of ate but I normally walk away at that point

[Mathdino]

Oh same I've changed about I wanna say 4 times but it's mostly mindless rambling in my head and I'm trying to be confident and not paranoia my reads to death cause that leads to me failing more then it is helpful plus I don't think anyone wants to just see me post useless rambling so I'm trying to keep it game related..mostly

while you're here in real time i'd also like you to explain as much of your behind-the-scenes progressions as possible

specifically the 4ish times you've changed your mind

[MariaR]

sure sure

[Wisdom]

dude youre going against standard mylo practice
dont blame me

[MariaR]

do you want them note or just want to me to start typing

[Wisdom]

also scum me prob goes with your plan and convinces you to lynch Maria today

[Mathdino]

do you want them note or just want to me to start typing

just type things out and press enter

[MariaR]

Well the first time I was like "hrm maybe it was wisdom" was when it seemed like I was the only one who was suspecting math and widom came in and was like "oh maria is kinda towny" I was already somewhat scared that I'd fuck everything up by trying to strongman a lynch on math but be wrong and it really be wisdom and I don't know why he was townreading me.
The second time I switched back to thinking it was Math because I went back to the idea of "oh he setup the worst lynch and wants to lynch today because it's me vs wisdom and it works for him" because that going into the day phase is what it looked like and of course math would do that
The third time was because I thought it over and Math seemed like he would have the ego to want to lynch today because he wants his own fate and to be a little selfish
I started thinking it was math again when he went into hyper type mode when me and wisdom were agreeing on the same page and he started showing all these set up spec/mech talk (and I've caught scum for doing this a lot) and I thought he was just doing it to seem towny

[brassherald]

VOTE: Wisdom

not into this

no lynching is strictly suboptimal when there's conftown

i'm telling you brass is equivalent to conftown and none of the 3 of us are ever lynching him tomorrow

the only way he doesn't die tonight is if scum are sure he's going to make the wrong decision

me+brass making the call >>> the designated one of us making the call

Why wisdom over Maria?

[HeWhoSwims]

Wisdom (1) (L-2):

Mathdino

No Lynch (1) (L-2):

Wisdom

Not Voting (2):

brassherald, MariaR

With 4 alive, 3 votes are needed to lynch.

[MariaR]

VOTE: no lynch
anything else?

[brassherald]

I'm still waiting for Math's response.

[Mathdino]

1. I strongly believe JJD is more likely to be right on Wisdom even if just by gut than Espeonage is to be right on Maria. If Espeonage IS right on Maria, it's basically by random chance. JJD's reads are >random.

2. I strongly believe TW knew who the traitor was based on the fact that TW knew I was town (you should know this too). Based on TW's ISO, I think it's more likely he's scum with Wisdom than Maria.
- He also basically gave up near the end of D2. Does he do that knowing his partner is solidly in the lynch/shootpool or knowing Wisdom can take him to endgame?
[insert this technically applies to Mathdino too]
except i also used TW's constant spewing to confirm brassherald as town during my interaction with him
you can read up on my interaction with my buddies in my games, it's nowhere near that complex or "gotcha". i don't have a large range with buddy interaction.

3. Given that TW recruited his traitor, I think Wisdom is more likely to make the IC kill than Maria.

4. Wisdom's D2 progression makes more sense as scum.
- Waffles/flops a bunch of reads that from his POV really shouldn't have flopped.
- Starts with Maria until the "Maria didn't bus" idea went around. Maria's scum meta is bussing. Wisdom bends with the crowd.
- Then spends whole day framing LHF UglyDuck with me as a potential partner.
- Goes after me on the basis that I lied about my D1 reads confidence. This isn't/wasn't scum-indicative.
- It takes an incredible number of pages to finally get on board with TW, and only as a UglyDuck/TW theory. His behaviour toward TW is much more indicative of reluctant bussing/distancing than Maria's.

5. Maria's defence makes sense and her play is consistent with what I know of her towngame. There are a bunch of posts I don't think she makes as scum but I don't wanna harp on those because standard "Maria's scumrange is absolutely massive".

6. I expect Wisdom's play today to make more sense. I've gone into this and this was the last straw that made me vote him.

[brassherald]

Okay, now the million dollar question. Maria, would you be willing to end the game right here and now with a Wisdom lynch?

[MariaR]

Lol no

[MariaR]

You wanna explain math town to me again or?

[Mathdino]

this game is a loss if it's me vs wisdom with maria deciding, brass

[Mathdino]

i don't even know where to fucking begin here

i turned TW into a superviable lynch when JJD and wisdom, the other town leaders, were tunneling literally everyone else

nauci wasn't even sold on TW before i started that shit

all i would've had to do as scum is:
MariaR --> Get Espeonage vigged --> UglyDuck
and win

beefster, yeah, i'd have bussed beefster
i'd have had 0 reason to bus TW in that situation
especially considering bussing gives no towncred in current site meta

put in the goddamn effort maria
read my scumgames, read my interactions, read when i decide to start bussing

[Mathdino]

bussing to me is a way to avoid the scumcred of NOT being on a wagon
aka i bus when i'm in a position where either
A. that scumpartner is going to get lynched at some point in the game
B. i've put myself in a position where town-me HAS to scumread the person

read my progression on TW.
A. TW is good at scum. he's fooled me before and been the endgame scum in a mini. i'm comfortable saying that i'm worse at scum than he is. my meta is more obvious while his isn't. i don't fucking bus someone better at scum than i am.
B. i had valid reason to scumread you and uglyduck. i didn't have to locktown nauci off secret tells. i didn't have to consistently argue JJD was out of his scumrange. i didn't have to metadive scum-brass's interactions with his scumbuddies to remove him from the lynchpool completely.
instead of going after you or duck or literally anyone else, i went for TW, who was only being scumread by brassherald, a player who was under heavy fire for not doing shit all game.

please put in the effort
i'm not going to tell you how to meta me
i'm going to ask you to just fucking do it yourself
you literally played anything upick where i bussed 2 scumbuddies
read how i did it, read what my range is.

[MariaR]

I'll go read it but I will tell you my main worries for you.
You already know how I feel about you setting up the day phase.
Your stance shifting today doesn't seem like reasons !townmath would support. I find it really hard to believe the main reason you're betting everything on wisdom scum is that you have no respect for my scum game and respect for wisdoms town game that's ???
The way you went into hyper mode right when me and Wisdom started to get on the same page

I'll go check out anything upick if it makes you feel better but I don't get why you're so against nling here if Wisdom is scum he prob nk's brass given my stance atm right? Isn't that what you want?
If I'm scum then scum me prob kills...uh *shrug* not you I'd guess isn't both cases good for you
why no nl? Do you want brass to clear me do you want to nl? What's your issue rn