Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[ruru]

xd

[Mathdino]

page 18 and got tired

bad news is i don't think i know how to play the game if nobody is aggressively engaging me from the start

now that i think about it i think this is the only post i explicitly townread

[ruru]

HURT: Draynth

Vig shot count

ofrhz (4)

: Mathdino, Oxy, pinturicchio, UglyDuck

UglyDuck (2)

: AP, ofrhz

northsidegal (1)

: the worst

Draynth (1)

: ruru

Not Voting (5)

: Draynth, Sunshine13, northsidegal, skitter30, Scioness Sajj

[ruru]

NSG do you think 1130 could be designed specifically to make a first impression on you?

[brassherald]

By the qay, I am still able to post here.

I'm going to repeat here in a new post, just to be clear. Please do not post in this game if you are not a current player, myself, or Assemblerotws. Since Mohab's posts are not game related, it's okay, but any more will be deleted.

[northsidegal]

i have to sheep mith on the opinion that a vig "votecounter" seems like a worse idea than even just coming up with a collectively agreed upon pool.

[northsidegal]

NSG do you think 1130 could be designed specifically to make a first impression on you?

1130? no, probably not. if anything was a scum move meant to capitalize on my replace-in it'd be math reconsidering his scioness read.

[Mathdino]

i'm unprepared to read scioness without understanding the difference between her towngame and her scumgame

my northside pal was able to identify the difference easily, so clearly there IS something, it's just not within my range right now to see it

that said her recent posting wasn't scummy so she's not currently my top scumspect

NSG i literally said this earlier in the game lol

[northsidegal]

A simple way to see how having the vig is better is that instead of not vigging, you can just get town to vote on the vig kill. That makes it more or less equivalent to a lynch (except that if the vig themself is voted as the vig target, they can shoot someone else, thus giving town a bit more of an edge).

Yeah, that's another good way of looking at it (though that plan is actually demonstrably worse than letting the Vig make the decision randomly, if it's followed strictly; it tells Mafia who is likely to be killed, so they can kill someone else and avoid doubling up on a townie, and it also tells Mafia who the Vig is as soon as they don't die).

(If I weren't so busy, I'd put something together to calculate the EV of that. Actually might be an interesting setup to run, just having that as a weakened Vig role.)

[northsidegal]

i'm unprepared to read scioness without understanding the difference between her towngame and her scumgame

my northside pal was able to identify the difference easily, so clearly there IS something, it's just not within my range right now to see it

that said her recent posting wasn't scummy so she's not currently my top scumspect

NSG i literally said this earlier in the game lol

yeah i haven't read the game, i was just speaking from what little i knew of what your read what before apparently and you apparently switching it now

[Mathdino]

mith's theoretically-based argument on what's best for towns with vigs is analogous to a government being full of ivy leaguers who never worked a min wage job arguing what's best for the masses

mith has theory. theory is fine and all but the question is "what's your model"
answer: random lynching/random scumreads

in reality, vigs are stupid and shoot scum less than random and shoot power roles more than random
this is the safe plan imo and i'm betting his calculations would reflect that if he accounted for the fact that PRs get scumread significantly more than random

[ruru]

Is purely random shot even better if you account for PR claims at V-1? I would be surprised

And it must be really hard to model the EV of shooting PRs, so I find the "calculate the EV" thing a bit questionable

[ruru]

Also hard to model the EV of making players actually commit to a majority vote for VCA

[Mathdino]

Is purely random shot even better if you account for PR claims at V-1? I would be surprised

And it must be really hard to model the EV of shooting PRs, so I find the "calculate the EV" thing a bit questionable

well okay so the reason random vigging > random lynching is because the vig will categorically not shoot themselves
vig shoots from a pool of P-1 while lynches happen from a pool of P

that said, it's a 2-shot vig. if we end up lynchvigging the vig, they'll just claim VT, be like "oh woe is me y u do this, goodbye sweet prince", vig someone else, be obviously vig tomorrow, and then shoot someone else on N2 as they get killed themselves

so voting on who to vig also categorically cannot hit the vig.

the vig functionally gives us 1 extra lynch (assuming they shoot twice) that can never hit themselves

[ofrhz]

Oxy vs TW feels TvT. Can’t tell if I’m confbiasing but I don’t want to lynch either of those two

I’m a fan of left shift NSG

Sheeping skitter on her AP theory - can we lynch in {UD, Draynth, possibly Scioness}

[ofrhz]

@ruru- does your vig plan mean we don’t vote on the vig shot at all until after the lynch has been decided?

[ruru]

Oxy vs TW feels TvT. Can’t tell if I’m confbiasing but I don’t want to lynch either of those two

What are the indicators of it being TvT to you?

I’m a fan of left shift NSG

Me too

Sheeping skitter on her AP theory - can we lynch in {UD, Draynth, possibly Scioness}

Ughhh

[ruru]

We can still vote, we just don't do the V-1/intent/claim thing until after the lynch is decided

If we declared intent to vig before deciding the lynch, people wouldn't know whether to vote their best lynch or second best lynch for vig

[ruru]

(Also I suspect there could be infinite loops of people switching their votes around to try to get the best two compromise lynches and other pathological behaviors)

[ruru]

I guess I may as well mention this now too

If there's no vig then claiming at intent on D1 is not so good

It's still up to PRs' discretion if they believe they're at enough risk for claiming to be worthwhile. (But I think it should be strictly better than not letting players know at all if they're at intent to vig)

[ofrhz]

If Oxy was scum, he should have been trying to lynch Draynth like 5 pages ago. Other than that, he sounds way too indignant and convinced he’s right (he’s reading past TW in multiple places and I feel like scum would... read more carefully if that makes sense). We got our confident Oxy back. I need to get to an actual computer so I can link posts but he is town cracking under pressure

TW I’m less sure about but IIRC he started sussing Oxy before you and skitter did. I need to double check this later but his read progression feels natural

[ofrhz]

1123 is ugh. None of the posts Draynth linked sound forced

[ruru]

A simple way to see how having the vig is better is that instead of not vigging, you can just get town to vote on the vig kill. That makes it more or less equivalent to a lynch (except that if the vig themself is voted as the vig target, they can shoot someone else, thus giving town a bit more of an edge).

Yeah, that's another good way of looking at it (though that plan is actually demonstrably worse than letting the Vig make the decision randomly, if it's followed strictly; it tells Mafia who is likely to be killed, so they can kill someone else and avoid doubling up on a townie, and it also tells Mafia who the Vig is as soon as they don't die).

(If I weren't so busy, I'd put something together to calculate the EV of that. Actually might be an interesting setup to run, just having that as a weakened Vig role.)

Also this whole thread now that I read it was about a hypothetical 1 vig + N VT setup. So I don't think mith is contradicting the real-world plan in a game with other PRs?

[the worst]

@Oxy can you show me the point where you expected me to get angry?
Regardling ofrhz--he seems to spew enough content anyway. later on, his conversation with sunshine felt more relevant than anything I could come up with to squeeze him.

[the worst]

Do you also think it is scum-indicative for those two players in particular?

TW's job as scum is to push back against my control when i'm right and to defer to me when i'm wrong

skitter, idk

and i'm loling at all of NSG's posts this is good shit

You're talking about a different duckling buddy