Sid Meier's Civilization 5 UPick Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Gamma Emerald]

If he were to target a person to permanently bodyguard I'd think he'd target brass given brass was confirmed so he wouldn't be dying to weak role.

[OnTheMark]

I say that only because I played in a large with two scum teams, one had a kill, the other team had a delayed poison kill. So I came to the conclusion orange scum may not have a kill, either to balance the setup or they get kills if red scum die before them. Otherwise, we have to keep guessing that all their shots were protected.

Kokichi Oma was killed Night 2. He was Alexander of the Greeks (Town Neighbouriser)
Nero Cain was killed Night 2. He was Bismarck of the Germans (Town Jailkeeper)
LaserGuy was lynched Day 3. He was Washington of the Americans (Vanilla Townie)
Almost50 was killed Night 3. He was Wu Zetian of the Chinese (Town Taoism Spreader)

So if we assume no SK and/or Shaziro is telling the truth about Kokichi shot only one kill is missing. What is up with all there? Are you red scum who shot A50?

Pedit Elbrin was confirmed to never arrive at brass if memory serves?

[OnTheMark]

VOTE: Ranmaru

Explain yourself.

[Ranmaru]

No I am not.

[brassherald]

Okay, I can explain the lack of a kill. One scum team attacks Gamma, as you said, the other attacks A50.

Done. This is pretty simple.

Except as established killing a50 is a silly kill. It is much more likely an sK did it.

Town deals in most likely. Scum deals in what if.

It is much more likely an sK kill.

You are assuming that everyone is going to play optimally.

[OnTheMark]

Okay, I can explain the lack of a kill. One scum team attacks Gamma, as you said, the other attacks A50.

Done. This is pretty simple.

Except as established killing a50 is a silly kill. It is much more likely an sK did it.

Town deals in most likely. Scum deals in what if.

It is much more likely an sK kill.

You are assuming that everyone is going to play optimally.

Yes. If its the latter (scum do shitty things) then we wipe the floor with them anyway.

[Gamma Emerald]

I keep letting that bit about my watch confirming Elbirn not visiting brass slip my mind for some reason. How could I forget something so important? I am such a fool!

[OnTheMark]

I keep letting that bit about my watch confirming Elbirn not visiting brass slip my mind for some reason. How could I forget something so important? I am such a fool!

Happens. It’s a complex setup everyone makes mistakes. Who do you think Elbrin visited?

[Gamma Emerald]

I keep letting that bit about my watch confirming Elbirn not visiting brass slip my mind for some reason. How could I forget something so important? I am such a fool!

Happens. It’s a complex setup everyone makes mistakes. Who do you think Elbrin visited?

Either they visited me, they left another crumb somewhere everyone missed, or Elbirn went for the second best pick for actual protecting with Joey

[BuJaber]

So you can tell who is not an optimal kill for scum without knowing who scum is?

Scum killing A50 is easily explained. Joey/gamma claimed commute. A50 was pretty much confirmed townie because he targeted brass and brass confirmed the conversion. If we lynched a religion spreader it would have never been A50 first. If you don't kill A50 and you will probably miss if you shoot gamma/joey who do you have left to kill? Most remaining are lynch candidates.
Maybe brass or chara. Was brass protected last night? I don't remember all claims today.

Killing A50 actually reduces the chance that we lynch a religion. Because of the reactions already displayed. We are questioning the kill. Some of us are refusing to lynch a religion spreader today. Some are even questionining if orange actually has a religion spreader.



I highly doubt you actually believe what you're saying. In what world is it more likely that an SK who has claimed vig unprompted and then claimed out of shots has lied and killed someone and the 2 remaining scum teams both shot an untargetable player??!

This is the opposite of assuming the simplest explanation is the correct explanation.

[OnTheMark]

So you can tell who is not an optimal kill for scum without knowing who scum is?

Considering on Mafia Universe I correctly identified nearly the entire scum team using this method and heat mapping you tell me. They fucked up and killed Fuchs which caused a major paradigm shift and then I got killed over the multiple PRs that consistently guiltied the rest matching my list almost to a T. No meta no nothing.

Scum killing A50 is easily explained. Joey/gamma claimed commute. A50 was pretty much confirmed townie because he targeted brass and brass confirmed the conversion. If we lynched a religion spreader it would have never been A50 first.

All the more reason to leave A50 alive That is the world most commonly suggested. By killing A50 scum want us down that path. To where we look at the religion spreaders. This is something as I have pointed out several times red does not want. To suggest otherwise is folly. Red need Orange KPN. If the religion spreaders issue was forced today and the theory is correct red would be strangling themselves. If going for confirmed town, something like Brass would have been a much better red kill as there were if memory serves 0 protective roles that could act that night. An SK who doesn’t want to make the obvious brass or Gamma kills however would target A50

If you don't kill A50 and you will probably miss if you shoot gamma/joey who do you have left to kill? Most remaining are lynch candidates.

Patently false. Religion spreaders were off the table for a while. Brass Gamma Joey and Chara are all widely townread. There actually are very few mislynch options part of why I suspect I was pushed so hard, besides Shaziro, whom I think had his own motivations [/i]
Maybe brass or chara. Was brass protected last night? I don't remember all claims today.

I don’t buy that you don’t remember this and then argue there is no SK. It’s like saying we’ve mass claimed but I am going to disregard facts in making my case. Because darn those inconvenient facts

Killing A50 actually reduces the chance that we lynch a religion. Because of the reactions already displayed. We are questioning the kill. Some of us are refusing to lynch a religion spreader today. Some are even questionining if orange actually has a religion spreader.

In the short term, yes. It did have that effect. However as numbers start to dwindle outside the spreaders either though lynch or NK the question does need answering it and I don’t see red scum aiding town in this manner

I highly doubt you actually believe what you're saying. In what world is it more likely that an SK who has claimed vig unprompted and then claimed out of shots has lied and killed someone and the 2 remaining scum teams both shot an untargetable player??!

This is the opposite of assuming the simplest explanation is the correct explanation.

[OnTheMark]

Furthermore it isn’t Occam’s razor that you should be referencing.

It’s the most likely.

For example assume I tell you there is a lady lying on the floor still as a doorknob, a sticky substance at her feet, markings all over her neck and the substance continues to flow outward. There is an onlooker who has a devious smile on his face and rubs his hands maniacally.

First reaction barring additional information is the simplest omg the lady is dead call the cops and that guy did it.

Reality is you’re on a movie set and the guy grinning is the director.

It’s one of the things I am good at so I look for it. Scum can easily misdirect with the truth. Which is why it is most likely.

Not simplest.

And it is unlikely red or Orange shoot A50.

[OnTheMark]

If you’re asking what if scum played suboptimally you’re already trying to justify something you shouldn’t be or there is a major core flaw in the reasoning.

The group says my reasoning for assuming there is an SK is flawed. However that requires red to play suboptimally. Orange shooting a50 is almost certainly suboptimal. However it is a fact a50 died.

Ergo throwing out my Shaziro is SK theory because Shaziro would be suboptimal is wtf when at that conclusion means red is also suboptimal is wtf worthy.

[OnTheMark]

@A50: Why aren't you voting for pidgey (since you don't scumread marshy)? Do you think all three religion spreaders are Town? Also, what do you think about BuJ?

Some genius decided Pidgey should be hosting the olympic games tonight, so he's off the table for today.

As for religion spreaders, I firmly believe one must be Orange scum, since one already flipped Red Scum. That is -of course- unless Orange also have some kind of a useless visiting role (which I don't see what it could be, since it has to also have the ability to confirm itself to become equal to the religion spreader role).

I was suspicious of BuJaber earlier, bit that diminished along the way and I now have him in my town pile.

If it ain't you then it's OTM+Pidgey for Orange and Klazam for Red I think.

Now look here. Your argument is Klazam would incriminate himself when with such a weird kill the first thing we would do is go back and look at the ISO? Or worse yet, in the improper case where it’s Pidgey+me Orange, I or Pidgey would order the kill despite the attention it would draw? In my scum games I get townread to win.

This kill only makes sense if not Shaziro a deep red wolf. Maybe you or Ram. No way Klazam newb panicks, especially with this being a theme game.

[OnTheMark]

If you want to argue that Klazam intentionally put an arrow on his back and then Shaziro can’t because mystical fairy dust good luck to you on that but I refuse to believe that there is no SK until someone explains why red can act suboptimally but Shaziro SK in your world can’t. Furthermore non conseq killing and others ascetic is valid. There’s other much more likely answers than Klazam made a suboptimal play.

[Gamma Emerald]

If you want to argue that Klazam intentionally put an arrow on his back and then Shaziro can’t because mystical fairy dust good luck to you on that but I refuse to believe that there is no SK until someone explains why red can act suboptimally but Shaziro SK in your world can’t. Furthermore non conseq killing and others ascetic is valid. There’s other much more likely answers than Klazam made a suboptimal play.

What is this last line going on about?

[OnTheMark]

If you want to argue that Klazam intentionally put an arrow on his back and then Shaziro can’t because mystical fairy dust good luck to you on that but I refuse to believe that there is no SK until someone explains why red can act suboptimally but Shaziro SK in your world can’t. Furthermore non conseq killing and others ascetic is valid. There’s other much more likely answers than Klazam made a suboptimal play.

What is this last line going on about?

People suspecting Klazam.

The argument is Klazam as red would shoot A50. To do that he would draw attention to himself thus playing suboptimally. The case against Shaziro being SK is that he wouldn’t play suboptimally.

Therefore it is logically inconsistent to say there cannot be a serial killer and suspect Klazam did a suboptimal shot.

[OnTheMark]

You can have red scum acted suboptimally, which in the case begs the question why can’t Shaziro fypov?

OR you can say red scum acted optimally which in that case excludes Klazam killing A50.

[Gamma Emerald]

How does any shot draw attention to Klazam specifically?

[Ranmaru]

It all makes sense for Klazam to be the final red scum. It doesn't make sense for Shaziro to claim town vig, and then shoot himself in the foot. Klazam's play is red scum play (isn't here posting), Klazam's night kills point towards him (All were pushing him), His lack of interaction with Creature and vote, points him as final red scum. His interaction with Dunk, signifies as partners. Klazam killing in that way from the beginning, isn't shooting himself in the foot. Finally, you have stated Klazam as your top suspect for final red scum, so you should be able to see what I see.

[OnTheMark]

VOTE: Klazam

@Gamma Almost50’s last post

[OnTheMark]

It all makes sense for Klazam to be the final red scum. It doesn't make sense for Shaziro to claim town vig, and then shoot himself in the foot. Klazam's play is red scum play (isn't here posting), Klazam's night kills point towards him (All were pushing him), His lack of interaction with Creature and vote, points him as final red scum. His interaction with Dunk, signifies as partners. Klazam killing in that way from the beginning, isn't shooting himself in the foot. Finally, you have stated Klazam as your top suspect for final red scum, so you should be able to see what I see.

It does if and only if Shaziro is the SK.
Klazam would not bring that much attention as it does shoot himself in the foot. Stating otherwise does not negate that fact. If something points to you being scum and you are scum you did your night actions wrong.

[Gamma Emerald]

It all makes sense for Klazam to be the final red scum. It doesn't make sense for Shaziro to claim town vig, and then shoot himself in the foot. Klazam's play is red scum play (isn't here posting), Klazam's night kills point towards him (All were pushing him), His lack of interaction with Creature and vote, points him as final red scum. His interaction with Dunk, signifies as partners. Klazam killing in that way from the beginning, isn't shooting himself in the foot. Finally, you have stated Klazam as your top suspect for final red scum, so you should be able to see what I see.

It does if and only if Shaziro is the SK.
Klazam would not bring that much attention as it does shoot himself in the foot. Stating otherwise does not negate that fact. If something points to you being scum and you are scum you did your night actions wrong.

Are you saying we're *not* supposed to NKA?

[OnTheMark]

Since I have been asked numerous times to avoid the Shaziro SK world that also means Klazam should not be the lynch today unless someone can explain how Shaziro can do a common SK ploy (which is not suboptimal) and Klazam can do a suboptimal kill. Even if you believe the ploy is suboptimal then you’re hypocritical at best or illogical or scummy at worst.

[OnTheMark]

It all makes sense for Klazam to be the final red scum. It doesn't make sense for Shaziro to claim town vig, and then shoot himself in the foot. Klazam's play is red scum play (isn't here posting), Klazam's night kills point towards him (All were pushing him), His lack of interaction with Creature and vote, points him as final red scum. His interaction with Dunk, signifies as partners. Klazam killing in that way from the beginning, isn't shooting himself in the foot. Finally, you have stated Klazam as your top suspect for final red scum, so you should be able to see what I see.

It does if and only if Shaziro is the SK.
Klazam would not bring that much attention as it does shoot himself in the foot. Stating otherwise does not negate that fact. If something points to you being scum and you are scum you did your night actions wrong.

Are you saying we're *not* supposed to NKA?

On the contrary, I do it all the time.

It’s just a matter of with SK’s and solos it’s about longevity.