Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

vc

Votecount 2.02

teacher (1)

Thor665 ,

Meji Fan (3)

Irrelephant11 , teacher , Flicker , L-2

Not Voting (4)

Oxy , Nauci , Meji Fan , Not Known 15 ,

Day

one

two deadline is Wednesday May 9, 9 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-09 09:00:00)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

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[Oxy]

Penultimate Votecount Day 1(a bit more than 3 days left)

James Brafin

(4)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 , Not Known 15 , Flicker , L-1
teacher (1)Nauci ,<---absent
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,
Meji Fan (2)teacher , Oxy ,<---- counter wagon to town

Not Known 15

(1)James Brafin ,

Final Votecount Day 1(less than 3 days left):

James Brafin

(5)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 ,

Not Known 15

, teacher , Oxy , L-0
teacher (1)Nauci ,<---absent
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,<---lone vote, not absent, no vote change, against JB lynch but not offering alternatives.

Scum

?

Not Known 15

(1)

James Brafin

,
Not Voting (1)Flicker ,<------Not voting this close to deadline, and not voting Meji; unvoted Brafin because they "didn't scumread them anymore" and didnt vote counterwagon that was at L-3(Meji) at that time. But at that time the lynch seemed inevitable without a push on a major wagon. Maybe hiding scum that wanted to evade VCA?.

Scum

?

Meji is at L-2 currently.

With my hard pushing as town vs town(Brafin) Mafia might not have needed to vote on Brafin.
And with Meji being the last counterwagon it would be very interesting to see what they were.

This is well connected with my thought process and compelling. I'm on board with helping Flicker bus her partner.

VOTE: Meji Fan

L-1

Post or perish.

[Thor665]

1) Yeah, I know you didn't explicitly call it scummy. I even mentioned that in the quote?

2)This is a waste of time, but no. If doc is known to save JK 100% of time, then scum hits outside of JK 100% of time, and doc save does nothing 100% of the time.. Thus, doc should save outside of JK some amount of the time in order to induce scum to attempt to NK some amount of the time, allowing doc save to actually do something some amount of the time. Obviously, this percentage needs to be low so the benefits of correct saves aren't outdone by the times the JK is successfully night killed.

1. You did?

2. What's more valuable, the percentage chance of a Doc protect working on the percentage time a Doc shouldn't protect a JKer - or a 100% guranteed investigation result? Because I have no idea why you would ever argue the one over the other - because if you play Doc like that, if I was scum I'd just keep shooting the JK every night - odds are that's massively beneficial to me.

@Thor: I think 1 on wagon likely. If I havent made it clear, I still sus NK more than you even with claim. I just cant vote him or include him in a proffered list. And with the biggest suspect gone, Oxy and Elephant still reduce the amount of the minority left for you. My biggest issue with you is that I feel like you are a good reader but arent explaining outside of lynch desires. Towncasing people helps town too.

You don't need to towncase people unless people are trying to lynch your town reads.
I still don't get why you suspect NK more than me for some reason - can you walk me through the idea of the JK claim as fake?

[Oxy]

1. Yeah, I did. I don't think you're reading my posts very well.
2. ??? It's possible you're reading, but you definitely are not comprehending.

I am being quite clear, though.

[Thor665]

@game: Lamist is more town-indicative than scum-indicative for new players. The claiming discussion may or may not have been anti-town, but it's unrealistic to argue that it comes from scum more often than from town.

@Oky - can you show me where you said it?

2. What about my discussion of JKer and Doc combo is showing that I'm not comprehending something?

[Flicker]

@Flicker: I find late submitted kill implausible with two team members. I also find dividing actions unlikely - why not have PR!mar (if any) conduct both actions to lower track odds.

I know it's implausible, I just think it's

less

implausible than the other scenarios I listed. It's a PoE read more than a certainty thing.

There's no tracker in column A, so no need to worry about lowering odds of a tracker hit. Even if we're in column B, a tracker hit is weak b/c it could also hit their fellow PR - let's say even odds of hitting either one of the scum split actions or the other PR, so 33% of the time a successful tracker hit misses scum altogether. I might take that risk to guarantee getting one successful night action - but IDK, maybe a more experienced player wouldn't.

@Flicker: If nauci did go back to game (effort), I see no reason why she would not also read at least one town!NGP game for comparison and realize NAI per James. I need to meta TGP myself to determine weight.

It seems a lot easier and more fun to relive old games. From what little meta-reading I've done, it's confusing, time consuming (even just skimming), difficult, and I don't think I've gotten a lot out of it. Meta where you've actually played a game with someone seems like a much better tool.

But I'm not necessarily arguing with your read overall, just with that reason & its prominence in your read, so I'm gonna drop it now.

PEdit: I know my unvote makes me look like a flibbertigibbet at best, and I think(?) I considered voting Meji (re-iterating that I should have been asleep when I posted), but Oxy was such a confusing read and teacher was a null and I didn't feel great about being on a wagon with them. I also thought when I woke up I'd have time to move my vote somewhere else/back to James, but Oxy hammered before I got back to the thread.

[teacher]

Assume NK + Oxy team, with NK submitting actions. He knows theres a Protective PR so can early claim and call the cc suspect for delay. He and oxy push massclaim in PR hunt. Achieve scum goals despite my warning. Undercut by NK immediately realizing JK hole in my first theory. Breadcrumbing confirmed later claim supports town.

Also likely 1 on wagon = appr. 55%? I see (Nauci Meji) as potential, as suggested by lynch list. Indeed, Flicker's moving Meji up for me.

Bottom line, I guess Im not getting what about my ordering isnt making sense. But Im also not getting why its relevant. I sus you fourth on an 7 player board - can I be any more clear that I have no fracking idea what you are.

PEDIT: Oxy is discussing advanced Bayesian theory and is right. But again, relevance?

[Oxy]

And my second point is responding to the following quote.

And yes, I know you haven't called it scum-indicative. I'm saying I don't think it's scum indicative, and I'm doing so for the benefit of anyone inclined to think it is.

I see my quote, I don't see me calling him scummy for that, I do see me calling him anti-town. I also see me calling him scummy for other reasons.
Feels very angular as a defense.

Actually, even then the correct play would be to save someone outside the JK claim some percentage of the time. This would be a small percentage, however.

Nah, 100% jailkeeper at that stage, because once scum make a non-JKer kill the JKer is a cop result.
Then, after Doc death, JKer openly declares his target, and until JKer death you get another cop result every night.

You literally quoted me saying it, mate. (green color added to help Thor while he skims)

[Oxy]

2. What about my discussion of JKer and Doc combo is showing that I'm not comprehending something?

I'm done arguing it, but you are objectively wrong here, and that is evidence of you not comprehending my post.

[Thor665]

Assume NK + Oxy team, with NK submitting actions. He knows theres a Protective PR so can early claim and call the cc suspect for delay. He and oxy push massclaim in PR hunt. Achieve scum goals despite my warning. Undercut by NK immediately realizing JK hole in my first theory. Breadcrumbing confirmed later claim supports town.

This almost sounds like an argument against NK being fakeclaiming.
I'm asking why you're suspecting him so much despite the claim? It seems unlikely he's scum to me - can you walk me through why you disagree?

PEDIT: Oxy is discussing advanced Bayesian theory and is right. But again, relevance?

I will admit I never studied that in class - but he's wrong on a game theory level, and I did study that. The only way he's right is presuming suboptimal scum play - and why would you make a plan based on that considering scum could assuredly play correctly?

[Thor665]

2. What about my discussion of JKer and Doc combo is showing that I'm not comprehending something?

I'm done arguing it, but you are objectively wrong here, and that is evidence of you not comprehending my post.

No I'm not.
You brought it up after I had to seek clarification of your original post - I noted (agreed if you'd like) that since I hadn't stated it a general announcement to the game is super angular.
Your original post didn't have good context to your claimed intent - am I wrong?

[Oxy]

@teacher gtfo out saying I pushed a mass claim. I pushed for people to cc now because allowing cc's on later days is, imo, more trouble than it's worth. Our IC disagrees, fine. But you were agreeing with my proposal, so gtfo with the "despite my warning" shit.

And you'll note that I wasn't calling for any claims prior to NK's claim.

[Oxy]

2. What about my discussion of JKer and Doc combo is showing that I'm not comprehending something?

I'm done arguing it, but you are objectively wrong here, and that is evidence of you not comprehending my post.

No I'm not.
You brought it up after I had to seek clarification of your original post - I noted (agreed if you'd like) that since I hadn't stated it a general announcement to the game is super angular.
Your original post didn't have good context to your claimed intent - am I wrong?

Okay, you want to discuss it, let's discuss it.

It actually doesn't assume sub optimal play. It assumes that scum play and pr play is influenced by the expectation of what their opponent is going to do.

Bayesian analysis in this case, like in poker, is akin to going down the wifom rabbit hole (If he knows that I know that he is likely to save the JK, then maybe I should blah, blah, blah) all the way to it's eventual conclusion. That conclusion is that optimal play for both sides is to take one action some percentage of the time, and another option the rest of the time.

[Oxy]

Like I said before: a hypothetical doctor should save NK a large majority of the time. To not do so would allow scum to get too much value by targeting NK.

But if the hypothetical doctor saves NK 100% of the time, then he never gets a save because scum will never target NK. Thus, he must save NK much more than he makes any other save, but not 100% of the time.

[Flicker]

Breadcrumbing confirmed later claim supports town.

I don't see where NK15 confirmed breadcrumbing - did he? If not, where do you think he breadcrumbed?

Bottom line, I guess Im not getting what about my ordering isnt making sense. But Im also not getting why its relevant. I sus you fourth on an 7 player board - can I be any more clear that I have no fracking idea what you are.

I just think putting so much of Nauci's scumread on that specific point is weak. I wasn't talking about your other reads at all. It's more of a nit-pick than anything else, which maybe isn't super-relevant to you, but whatever.

[teacher]

@Flicker:

HE didnt confirm breadcrumbing. But his early reaction my doctor only protective role (twice pointing out JK possibility without saying it) is breadcruming. And confirmed should be confirms -- this preclaim behavior supports the claim.

The second quote is to Thor. Your point was valid.

[Flicker]

HE didnt confirm breadcrumbing. But his early reaction my doctor only protective role (twice pointing out JK possibility without saying it) is breadcruming. And confirmed should be confirms -- this preclaim behavior supports the claim.

Ok, makes sense.

The second quote is to Thor. Your point was valid.

Ha, sorry.

[Nauci]

Pls no hammer I just camped a conference room for the next 2 hours for a thread reread/catch up

Teacher I find your confidence about there being a doctor and sheep on irrelephant odd, especially in contrast to all of the second guessing yesterday

But I've only skimmed day 2 so my views might change significantly in the next 2 hours

[Irrelephant11]

Sorry don't have time to do much else today exceptsay I'll be very curious to see what meji posts when I come back tomorrow.

[Meji Fan]

I don't want to get lynched without voting,

Vote Nauci

Nauci is still my favorite, teacher second favorite

NK15 I'm curious why Thor instead of Oxy or Elephant since they seem loved. Maybe I'm just contrary but no particular feel of town towards them myself

I don't feel Flicker or Thor as scum, I see them more town

I'm at L-1. VT

I assure you I was not not submitting a night action due to inattention, A - I've been prodded once already, B - I really really really wanted to make the James post before everyone decided to lynch me for not making it

[Oxy]

In post 474, teacher wrote:
@Flicker: I find late submitted kill implausible with two team members. I also find dividing actions unlikely - why not have PR!mar (if any) conduct both actions to lower track odds.


I know it's implausible, I just think it's less implausible than the other scenarios I listed. It's a PoE read more than a certainty thing.

There's no tracker in column A, so no need to worry about lowering odds of a tracker hit. Even if we're in column B, a tracker hit is weak b/c it could also hit their fellow PR - let's say even odds of hitting either one of the scum split actions or the other PR, so 33% of the time a successful tracker hit misses scum altogether. I might take that risk to guarantee getting one successful night action - but IDK, maybe a more experienced player wouldn't.

I think that underestimating scum's ability to send a night action in over the course of two days is probably not the best idea.

That's the most charitable way I can say that, and I went through that exercise because I'm worried about confirmation bias.

Because right now, you arguing that claimed JK stopping the kill is less likely than people not bothering to send a night action is setting off alarms for me.

[Oxy]

Meji, talk to me about your teacher read. Why do you think he is scum?

[Meji Fan]

Hmmm. After reading that I find maybe I don't like Flicker as much as i thought

[Meji Fan]

I'll give you more details on teacher this evening around 11-12

[Oxy]

flicker, too, please.

@all Meji is still at L-1, and has claimed. I'm not unvoting, but I'm asking that people don't hammer until Meji has the opportunity to make those posts.