Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

Even as the alt wagon rn, I'll VOTE: unvote. My intent is there but I want to take hammer off table.

[Flicker]

@Oxy:

My feelings on the no night kill right now are entirely based on believing NK15's claims of JK and targeting Thor. If those hadn't happened at all, then the situation is wide open; if I don't believe NK15, then I think he's scum.

If you want to go over my original reasoning and respond to that (rather than pick at the continuation of that reasoning), it's in post #469. Though, reading it over, my reasoning against point 2 (Thor is scum and was blocked) seems weaker than I originally thought, especially if

he's

partnered with Nauci or Meji and

had

to submit the night action(s).

[teacher]

. Thor is lock scum. Explanation after I put my kids to sleep. Can’t believe I didn’t see it til now.

[Not Known 15]

Do NOT vote until Teacher and Meji have presented their cases, please.

[Oxy]

@Oxy:

My feelings on the no night kill right now are entirely based on believing NK15's claims of JK and targeting Thor. If those hadn't happened at all, then the situation is wide open; if I don't believe NK15, then I think he's scum.

If you want to go over my original reasoning and respond to that (rather than pick at the continuation of that reasoning), it's in post #469. Though, reading it over, my reasoning against point 2 (Thor is scum and was blocked) seems weaker than I originally thought, especially if

he's

partnered with Nauci or Meji and

had

to submit the night action(s).

No, I don't really want to go over your reasoning. =(

In my opinion, any reasoning that results in one underestimating their opponent is almost certainly flawed. Saying that it is more likely for scum to have forgotten to send a night action than for a pr to have prevented a kill from occurring underestimates the abilities of everyone in this game.

I wouldn't go over your reasoning if you said 2+2=5. You could be the world's greatest debater, but any reasoning that makes 2+2=5 must be wrong by definition.

[Nauci]

1/3 way through reread note taking.

Quick comment is that I find it super weird how there has been very little talk about me. Every moment I was too ill to properly post I was sure that I'd come back to a thread full of people FOSing me because I usually FOS lurkers super hard. Maybe I missed it, but I'm pretty shocked to find that (outside of meji's inexplicable super tunneling) only teacher has cased me and irrelephant questioned me. I'm not sure what this means alignment wise yet, though.

[Oxy]

@flicker that was ruder than I meant it to be. Apologies. IRL mood carrying over to game.

[teacher]

Sorry to hear that Oxy. Good luck with the IRL stuff. My kids just hit their bedtime and are down. But this is going to take me a bitch of a long time to post, because (as my failed links have shown before) I kinda suck at the HTML stuff.

I will say at the outset that my theory depends on two critical assumptions, both of which I think are almost certainly valid, but neither of which I shall justify without direct questions, and possibly not even then:
1. Mafia attempted nightkill
2. NK's claim is true.

As you know, 2 is new for me. So are several of the other supports. It took the busy afternoon trying to do other things with my conscious mind to let something shake loose. And that is.....

[teacher]

First, Im sorry, I fucked up. In typing it up, I realized that my case depended on something only I know. The fact that I revealed I had a lock case likely tells Thor and his partner that information. Thus, I slipped. My bad.

I am tracker. I tracked Thor. He went nowhere. This, plus the fact that most of the board hasnt countered NK, basically proves his claim. This is why my case assumed that, and why I earlier wouldnt explain it until I realized the slip writing the case. By the way, I can point to several attempted breadcrumbs yesterday (like the response to Nauci's newb!scum pointing out that it applied to newb!prs, and also the willingness to build a block on a spot sussing me) to confirm my own claim. Now I will write the case with that info public.

[Oxy]

please explain your case??

[Oxy]

Also, if there is a pr somewhere that hasn't claimed, I think it's bloody well time.

[teacher]

My 451 came at trying to interpret the no kill + Thor Jail from the wrong perspective. From the perspective of Thor, as detailed there, its fairly null. But when approached from the perspective of NK and/or the mafia, it becomes alot more interesting.

NK AND Mafia: As I detailed yesterday, there is only a 2.4% chance that Mafia and NK BOTH hit Town!Thor. But there is a 14.2% chance NK hit Scum!Thor. Thus, this information alone tells us that Thor is six times more likely to be scum than mafia.

Mafia standing alone: Now, put yourselves in the position of the mafia deciding who to lynch. You want to leave scummed townies alive as mislynch targets. As I see it, your lynch pool at end of day is Elephant Oxy Flicker Thor. I pause here to note that even at this point, the odds of Mafia trying to lynch Thor are 33% EVEN assuming the board has towned the second mafia slot -- which basically reduces the chances of both Mafia and NK actually doing it to 0. Thor is lock scum at this point. But it gets worse. How, as mafia, do you not try to Elephant, when I am trying to build a block around him. Seriously. Thus, even the 33% is generous.

Now, there is more that could be said. But it doesnt need to be said now. So I wont.

VOTE: Thor

Do not quick lynch this though. There is more meta stuff I want to share before day's end in case I die tonight.

[teacher]

EBWOP

My 451 came at trying to interpret the no kill + Thor Jail from the wrong perspective. From the perspective of Thor, as detailed there, its fairly null. But when approached from the perspective of NK and/or the mafia, it becomes alot more interesting.

NK AND Mafia: As I detailed yesterday, there is only a 2.4% chance that Mafia and NK BOTH hit Town!Thor. But there is a 14.2% chance NK hit Scum!Thor. Thus, this information alone tells us that Thor is six times more likely to be scum than TOWN.

Mafia standing alone: Now, put yourselves in the position of the mafia deciding who to lynch. You want to leave scummed townies alive as mislynch targets. As I see it, your lynch pool at end of day is Elephant Oxy Flicker Thor. I pause here to note that even at this point, the odds of Mafia trying to lynch Thor are 33% EVEN assuming the board has towned the second mafia slot -- which basically reduces the chances of both Mafia and NK actually doing it to 0. Thor is lock scum at this point. But it gets worse. How, as mafia, do you not try to Elephant, when I am trying to build a block around him. Seriously. Thus, even the 33% is generous.

Now, there is more that could be said. But it doesnt need to be said now. So I wont.

VOTE: Thor

Do not quick lynch this though. There is more meta stuff I want to share before day's end in case I die tonight.[/quote]

[teacher]

Also, if there is a pr somewhere that hasn't claimed, I think it's bloody well time.

Agreed. The only counter that is remotely interesting is Nauci. Any other counter simply tells us we have the scum team locked.

[Oxy]

As I see it, your lynch pool at end of day is Elephant Oxy Flicker Thor. I pause here to note that even at this point, the odds of Mafia trying to lynch Thor are 33% EVEN assuming the board has towned the second mafia slot -- which basically reduces the chances of both Mafia and NK actually doing it to 0.

Unless I am misunderstanding you, assuming the smaller NK pool, and no other changes to your model, would increase the chance of scum + JK both hitting thor to 4.76%. If you assume that the JK infers that exact 4 man lynch pool, the chance goes up to 8.3%

That would make the possibilities a little closer.

But I think all of that waits until we have cc's or not. Thor, maybe you disagree, but with two claims on the board, i think it's mass claim time.

[teacher]

True. I realized that after writing it, though again I disagree on the 8 and think its closer to 6, because I dont think (Elephant Oxy Flicker Thor) are equal at all. Perhaps it will also be necessary for me to explain the other game-specific analysis aspects of the Thor case. Its still lock scum.

But Im not going to share that info. In fact, Im going to ask @Nauci and @Meji to make the cases after the ccs. But its CC time board.

[teacher]

So, reevaluating for that point makes Thor about 3 times more likely to be scum than town based on statistics. (NK said he was trying to save town, but does not have an overlapping town pool). That alone is enough for a lynch to me, but theres also the game mechanics (and I mean alot more than I included in my reasons for sussing Thor earlier.

CC time (putitng this at the bottom of all my posts until we get no ccs or a cc from all spots).

[Oxy]

I think there might be more wrong with the math, but I haven't put much thought there yet.

One thing to note. You talk of a 2.4% chance as nearly nonexistent, but you're actually proposing a (1/7)(1/7)=.0204=2.04% chance scenario where you and NK both choose the same target.

Basically what I'm saying is, low probability things do occur.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 2.03

teacher (1)

Thor665 ,

Nauci (1)

Meji Fan ,

Meji Fan (3)

Irrelephant11 , Flicker , Oxy , L-2

Thor665 (1)

teacher ,

Not Voting (2)

Nauci , Not Known 15 ,

Day

one

two deadline is Wednesday May 9, 9 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-09 09:00:00)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

[/size]

[teacher]

low probability things do occur.

No disagreement. Its the comparison that matters here, and that makes Thor so drastically likely to be scum. At 3 times more likely, the game tells become damning. But I need sleep - as my inability to do basic gamesolving, or not slip, has basically given away. My RL is a bit like yours rn. Seriously, good luck to you. Im signing off for the

COUNTERCLAIM PHASE.

[Oxy]

okay, but, and this is assuming both you and NK are true claims, a 3:1 likelihood is only 75%:25%

Consider this. From mypov, and assuming you and nk are true, that gives me 3 confirmed town out of 8. This leaves 2 scum out of 5. That would give each of you 40% scum equity vs 75%.

From this consideration, Thor is less than twice as likely as a random player to be scum.

That's an argument to lynch him - for sure - but it's no red check.

[Oxy]

Also, I would like to make it explicitly clear that a lack of cc's does not confirm teacher's claim.

[Meji Fan]

Well, before this teacher was my 2nd favorite, now I'm not sure precisely what I think, other than its quite a surprise for me to figure out at 11:03 PM, I'll try again tomorrow morning

[Oxy]

@teacher Explain to me why I shouldn't consider the following to be true:
Given random selection,
Town!NK has a one in seven, or 14%chance of choosing the scum doing the night kill
Town!NK has a (5/6)(1/7)=5/42=11% chance of choosing the night kill target.

Where the 5/6 represents the 5 out of 6 times the night kill isn't on NK and the 1/7 is the chance he chooses that target out of his seven possible choices in both scenarios.

[teacher]

You should consider that to be true. Youre approaching from NK's PoV exclusively.

Approaching it from board PoV (not any position) is what brings the odds lower. The Mafia kill selection is an independent event to NK. Its odds of being the same as NKs represent the same multiplier of scum!Thor chances.

ccs anyone?