Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Thor665]

Okay, you want to discuss it, let's discuss it.

It actually doesn't assume sub optimal play. It assumes that scum play and pr play is influenced by the expectation of what their opponent is going to do.

Bayesian analysis in this case, like in poker, is akin to going down the wifom rabbit hole (If he knows that I know that he is likely to save the JK, then maybe I should blah, blah, blah) all the way to it's eventual conclusion. That conclusion is that optimal play for both sides is to take one action some percentage of the time, and another option the rest of the time.

Except it's not - you're approaching it from a theory position where the goal of Doc is to accrue blocked kills, as opposed to his actual goal - to protect and confirm town.

Quick comment is that I find it super weird how there has been very little talk about me. Every moment I was too ill to properly post I was sure that I'd come back to a thread full of people FOSing me because I usually FOS lurkers super hard. Maybe I missed it, but I'm pretty shocked to find that (outside of meji's inexplicable super tunneling) only teacher has cased me and irrelephant questioned me. I'm not sure what this means alignment wise yet, though.

I fail to follow - your argument is that you're town who is easy to mislynch so it's strange that scum aren't trying to mislynch you.
That's functionally an argument that you're scum - explain?

Thor, maybe you disagree, but with two claims on the board, i think it's mass claim time.

I would call it "a period of time where people are allowed to counterclaim".
I don't see much point in having people go around claiming VT - do you?

I'm willing to believe Teacher's claim.
His math case is shockingly silly though.

VOTE: Oxy

This or elephant at this stage presuming teacher is speaking true.

[teacher]

His math case is shockingly silly though.

Its not just a math case, though. I just havent laid out the game case because math is 3:1 scum!you.

[Thor665]

I'll agree that what I said is true and that you haven't laid out a game case?

[Thor665]

I'm also thinking the math is wrong, but even if it's not it's silly.

[teacher]

I dont have time this morning to explain it. Lets get through any counterclaims. I will lay out the game case after.

But you just added to the game case. Explain how the current state of play points to Oxy/Elephant rather than Meji/Nauci? Seems like trying to redirect from a partner.

[Thor665]

But you just added to the game case. Explain how the current state of play points to Oxy/Elephant rather than Meji/Nauci? Seems like trying to redirect from a partner.

Because I still stand by my earlier analysis that at least one scum was on the wagon.

Also, maybe Oxy is my partner and I'm trying to redirect suspicion off him by voting him at a point I fear I've been caught by your amazing math?
I don't even get the logic of that jab.

[Irrelephant11]

Wow, okay, this game day is moving much faster than the last. Catching up...

I don't cc anything.

Assuming Teacher is telling the truth (could still be c2), Thor would make sense as mafia. Wondering if anyone else sees the possibility of a Teacher lie here, though? His "game breaking" at the start of D2 was interesting but not neccessarily ever quite helpful, and speaking of odds, what are the odds both town PRs and the scum kill hit one player?

I know I said I'd start today assuming a town Teacher, but mislynching the IC would probably be worth a fake claim if Teacher's scum...

@Thor, what do you think of this possibility?

Gonna go ISO Thor.

@MEJI

is your scum read on Nauci based solely on the number of Nauci posts in the first two pages that don't have much helpful content? Does that usually help you find scum?

[Irrelephant11]

Oh and Teacher, lay out the case for Thor as if you don't have any extra information, because none of the rest of us do. Please and thanks

[Thor665]

I know I said I'd start today assuming a town Teacher, but mislynching the IC would probably be worth a fake claim if Teacher's scum...

@Thor, what do you think of this possibility?

[/quote]
Meh, maybe?
Seems like really dumb play though.
I think he's probably town.

Frankly, if I'm lynched today and you guys lynch him tomorrow after I flip town I will be in the dead thread making horrible posts about your game analysis.

[Irrelephant11]

I'm also thinking either teacher is scum or one of my town reads is wrong.
Let's dance with the lawyer.

VOTE: Teacher

Can you tell me why, from your perspective, your top scumread telling the truth is more likely than one of your townreads being scum?

[Flicker]

I am tracker. I tracked Thor. He went nowhere.

The way I read this is, you're saying that NK15

didn't

jailkeep Thor last night, because "he went nowhere" is a different result than "I couldn't see his actions (if any)." I don't see how this (or any of your other arguments) makes Thor guaranteed scum. Could you clarify this, please?

[Oxy]

You should consider that to be true. Youre approaching from NK's PoV exclusively.

Approaching it from board PoV (not any position) is what brings the odds lower. The Mafia kill selection is an independent event to NK. Its odds of being the same as NKs represent the same multiplier of scum!Thor chances.

ccs anyone?

I don't think I am approaching it from his pov. I think this is board pov, as you call it.

[Oxy]

Because I still stand by my earlier analysis that at least one scum was on the wagon.

lol, you basically yelled at me for trying to estimate the number of scum on a wagon, but now your guess is analysis. Gtfo, mate. You're flailing scum at this point.

VOTE: Thor

[Oxy]

Frankly, if I'm lynched today and you guys lynch him tomorrow after I flip town I will be in the dead thread making horrible posts about your game analysis.

AtE

[Oxy]

Also, maybe Oxy is my partner and I'm trying to redirect suspicion off him by voting him at a point I fear I've been caught by your amazing math?
I don't even get the logic of that jab.

how does this help solve the game from your position or anyone elses, if you are town? It doesn't.

[Not Known 15]

I am tracker. I tracked Thor. He went nowhere.

The way I read this is, you're saying that NK15

didn't

jailkeep Thor last night, because "he went nowhere" is a different result than "I couldn't see his actions (if any)." I don't see how this (or any of your other arguments) makes Thor guaranteed scum. Could you clarify this, please?

Huh? Jailkeepers prevent kills. Not other actions.

[teacher]

No. Jail means jail - no other action. I couldnt track. Doc couldnt save. Rolecop couldnt cop. Except roleblock resolves first (we dont have one here).

[Thor665]

Can you tell me why, from your perspective, your top scumread telling the truth is more likely than one of your townreads being scum?

What was his scum advantage to claim at that stage?
If this was Day 3 I'd agree with you, but Day 2 is a lot riskier for him if he's scum.
I also don't see my play being a massive danger to him since he already had a big wagon going on Meji (that he was driving) so unless the argument is he's Meji's partner and really didn't expect his bus to work really well and had to hard abort via a fakeclaim - I don't see a clear scum logic for his play.
With lack of scum logic - I presume town claim, thus guardedly confirmed town.

What do you see as the scum logic I should follow for him?

lol, you basically yelled at me for trying to estimate the number of scum on a wagon, but now your guess is analysis. Gtfo, mate. You're flailing scum at this point.

I never yelled at you, and I also never did anything hypocritical (or flaily).
Please describe where/how I did? Maybe with quotes to back up your claim and to prove I lied when I said I didn't?

Frankly, if I'm lynched today and you guys lynch him tomorrow after I flip town I will be in the dead thread making horrible posts about your game analysis.

AtE

Yes, it is...but it's AtE to protect teacher.

Also, maybe Oxy is my partner and I'm trying to redirect suspicion off him by voting him at a point I fear I've been caught by your amazing math?
I don't even get the logic of that jab.

how does this help solve the game from your position or anyone elses, if you are town? It doesn't.

It points out the silly position teacher is taking in his logic behind calling me scum.
I f I can show his position is silly, i can defuse the wagon on me, and also potentially get him to recognize that I'm town, thus increasing our chances for a scum lynch. (I'm still waiting for him to defend his math methods so I can ask him to calculate the odds of two town PRs both targeting the same slot vs. not, and then ask if that proves one of them is lying )

How do you see it helping me if I'm scum?

[Thor665]

No. Jail means jail - no other action. I couldnt track. Doc couldnt save. Rolecop couldnt cop. Except roleblock resolves first (we dont have one here).

Actually there are two types of jailers.
The jailer in this setup does not prevent actions from targeting jailed targets other than kills.

[Flicker]

Huh? Jailkeepers prevent kills. Not other actions.

You're right. I'm wrong.

Spoiler: My line of thinking, exposed

FTR, my line of thinking was this. From the wiki (emphasis mine):

A Jailkeeper (or Jailer)'s Night Action is one that protects its target from kills,

but also Roleblocks its target.

I assumed that role-blocking extended both ways, but further on it says:

Some Jailkeepers not only protect their target from all kills, but also render its target untargetable by all other actions during that Night. This variant is also known as Alien.

I assume this is non-normal and would be considered too powerful for the current Newbie setup? In any event:

[A jailkeeper] does not prevent other players from targeting their target with non-killing actions

This is what I get for not reading the

whole

wiki page.

[Thor665]

It's annoying, because Jailer *used* to mean total block of all actions, then they started shifting it around, there was that gawd awful 'Alien' role for a while.
Nowadays it's just kind of like two Jailers - you have to check to see how they impact actions.

[Oxy]

@Thor I don't want to even try to evaluate your individual plays because if you are town, you should be reevaluating how many scum were on James' wagon.

If you want to ask about a scum motivation - what is my scum motivation to keep undercutting teacher's math? Why would I not sit back and see if teacher could get an early mislynch on you based on faulty logic?

This whole game you have been at a level 1 analysis, but you're one of the most experienced players on this site.

You're scum.

[Thor665]

@Thor I don't want to even try to evaluate your individual plays because if you are town, you should be reevaluating how many scum were on James' wagon.

Why should I reevaluate - I worked with that as a concept when I initially assessed the wagon.

If you want to ask about a scum motivation - what is my scum motivation to keep undercutting teacher's math? Why would I not sit back and see if teacher could get an early mislynch on you based on faulty logic?

I see we're shooting sideways in this discussion. Are you planning to answer my questions?
To answer your question first, because I'm swell like that - you did "undercut" his mth, but only insomuch as arguing it was a 3:1 scum:town rather than a 6:1.
I, personally, wouldn't call that undercutting - in fact it's basically agreeing. If I thought you had undercut him I'd probably need to adjust my views.
Can you describe how it undercut his position - and then I'll be able to understand how to adjust my views?

This whole game you have been at a level 1 analysis, but you're one of the most experienced players on this site.

You're scum.

BoP fallacy
This is kind of odd though, because here's your argument;

Thor is so good - he should be towning better - therefore he is scum. Yeah?
The problem is;

1. If I'm *so* good at being town - who are ou to assess my town game? Maybe my game is great and you just can't tell?
2. If I'm so good as town - why do I become terrible when scum? Wouldn't my scum game also be good?

Neither of those makes sense.
Can you clarify your case or tell me where I'm wrong?

[Thor665]

I guess you did say at one point "random things happen"
Is that the undercut?

[Oxy]

he started out saying that his math made it like 6 times more likely that you are scum.

I came at it from like 3 different directions, finally determining that there was a 14% chance of NK picking the scum doing the night kill, and 11% chance of NK choosing the night kill target.

That works out to roughly 20% more likely that he picks scum. I took his analysis from 600% to 20%, a reduction of over 96%.

And to your BoP - I'm not saying you're "so good"

But I do think it's fair to ask you to have better than level 1 reads

And I'm not saying you're "so bad" as scum - I don't know your statistics, but I imagine level 1 analysis is pretty good in newbie games.