Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

vc

Votecount 2.04

Oxy (1)

Thor665 ,

Nauci (1)

Meji Fan ,

Meji Fan (2)

Irrelephant11 , Flicker ,

Thor665 (2)

teacher , Oxy ,

Not Voting (2)

Nauci , Not Known 15 ,

Day two deadline is Wednesday May 9, 9 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-09 09:00:00)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

[/size]

[Nauci]

They've been filming at my desk all day for a feature and I can't even look at this thread, nevermind post, gaaaaaahhhhh

VOTE: Thor

Sorry I had been not voting; I thought I opened the day on teacher for some reason.

[teacher]

I had an unexpected gap when home (Kids had unplanned playdate). I started to write the Thor scumcase, but realized its deficiencies in the statistics. The statistics element bleeds out once you assume NK was trying to save in a similar townpool. It makes still makes it more likely Thor is mafia than town, but only marginally so. Oxy was basically right that it’s 20% more likely that there is scum!Thor than town!thor based on math.

I still scum Thor hard, but without the statistics, my read is not enough to lynch. He is an experienced player who is very skilled with words and timing (exactly why I tracked him – I knew that I would never read him to certainty, so wanted to solve mechanically). I will share the details of my readcase tomorrow because I think it helps advance the game regardless, so please don’t hammer.

My proposal is to lynch Meji. I completely agree with the scumcase made by others. I wasn’t trying to hard abort their wagon. On a side note—Thor’s attempted counterwagon on me yesterday, and subsequent push away from Meji today—are parts of my scumcase on him.

If Meji flips scum, jail Thor. If there is a kill, Thor is locktown along with one PR left. If there is no kill – either Thor is scum or mafia is trying to incriminate him, but regardless more villagers.

If Meji flips town, NK and I have both have to try to target different scum. But we cant announce which. Any thoughts on how to coordinate that?

[teacher]

Also, please Confirm no counterclaims to NK. Get one lock town now. And build a townblock on him.

[Nauci]

I'm pretty sure that if you two are what you say you are, then YOU have to try and target scum, because I don't see how NK lives through the night unless today's lynch is scum AND NK guesses correctly on the 2nd one?

[Nauci]

Like there's a reason I thought that only roles that aren't protective should claim today. IMO, having 2 conf town on Day 3 is a much bigger deal than on day 2? Like, the non protective role being alive on day 3 would then confirm the existence of the protective role.

Sorry I let this game get away from me this week. I promise to get back all up in this shit this weekend.

[Not Known 15]

Ok here are my thoughts... we lynch Meji. They are scummy. They are lurky. If they are scum we are in a good position.
If they are town then we won't have them hanging around in LYLO. If they are town then BOTH wagons at the end of Day 1 were on town. That is important information.
There was some speculation about 1 scum on and 1 scum off wagon. Yet we should not act towards that WIFOM; it could be easily otherwise... and even if it is 1 scum and 1 town we should count flicker towards on wagon because they only jumped off when the lynch seemed inevitable. Which leaves few people offwagon... one of them Meji with the classical hiding behaviour.
I plan to jailkeep Thor if they are scum. If not then both me and Teacher have to try to find the killing scum.
Teacher will not announce their targets either way. I won't if Meji is town.

[Oxy]

VOTE: meji
I can get behind this plan.

[Meji Fan]

Just remember Nauci after you lynch me

[Meji Fan]

Promised look at Flicker

Flicker - (because the person Flicker replaced hasn't exactly done much)
Voted James on policy lynch - kinda iffy, but eh, came out and said it
Comes out gates tussling visibly with James
Flicker 76 discusses the game and appears to not like Thor as scum
Moves to teacher, teacher is indeed feeling scummy. Nauci is voting teacher, teacher now has a good a shot as James, theres no wagons here
Flicker is open to James though prefers teacher, doesnt want to be on a wagon with teacher
Flicker suddenly no longer likes teacher based on another sites meta?
Doesnt put James to L-1? And still voting teacher?
Flicker is fine with me
Flicker decides isnt the target on the precipice
Flicker opposes the mass claim
Lots of discussion on the setup and what is/isnt cc
I still think its silly on calling inactive when I posted right after night ended, I wanted to get that James post in
Analyzing NK can be fun fun WIFOM stuff
Flicker is still happy with Thor

Flicker has been rather a wafflemaster but still get a town feel after looking again

[teacher]

I am tracker. I tracked Thor. He went nowhere.

The way I read this is, you're saying that NK15

didn't

jailkeep Thor last night, because "he went nowhere" is a different result than "I couldn't see his actions (if any)." I don't see how this (or any of your other arguments) makes Thor guaranteed scum. Could you clarify this, please?

Im writing up my analysis post, but thought I should respond to this. Outside of the game, I confirmed with appropriate people that I would get the "he went nowhere" result if he was jailkept. This is not part of my case, but wanted to explain.

@Flicker - youre the only spot to declare no CC to NK (or me). Could you? If youre a doctor, that makes me or NK both immediately suspect (C3; A2). If youre VT/Maf, we can at least clear NK.

[teacher]

So below is my actual analysis since Daybreak/Wednesday, and my Thor case. I apologize for the wall up front.
Also, before detailing the analysis, I will provide reads here, with the ordering within columns intentional.

Likely scum

: Meji, Thor

PoE from scummy to townie

: Flicker, Nauci, Elephant, Oxy

Here is the analysis:

• I find Nauci to be more townie based on their repeated posts at daybreak urging no identification of protective PR. I also like her pointing out that Meji (who tunned her D1) isn’t jumping on her absence, despite appearing right after daybreak.
  
• I strongly suspect Meji. I find the claim 494 of having wanted to make a James defense untrue, because they had over 50 hours in which to do so after 237. Seems to me to be a case of scum trying to build towncred while letting a mislynch go. (total aside – I think scum!Meji’s VT claim further supports my own. Scum would have known if we were in C2, and if they could have claimed a pr without contradiction.) But who is with Meji?
  • I see next to no possibility of a Meji-Flicker scumteam. Flicker’s vote on Meji during a building wagon today cuts pretty strongly against that. Same logic applies to Oxy and Elephant.
    
  • I see only a very slight possibility of a Meji-Nauci scumteam. Meji’s tunnel on Nauci seemed too early, and too strong, to be pure distancing. Plus Nauci is calling attention to the fact that Meji isn’t continuing the tunnel.
    
  • I see a strong possibility of a Meji-Thor scumteam. Thor scums Meji D1, but only after the James Wagon has reached L-1. Could be trying to build towncred for after a mislynch. This seems especially true by how much Thor is ignoring the D1 Meji read now and trying to focus attention elsewhere.
• I also suspect Thor, as is apparent from the last bullet point, and the case below.

This brings me to who to lynch. I am fully persuaded by the association analysis above that we should kill Thor. Why, if I suspect Meji more? A Meji flip tells us nothing – if Meji is scum, Thor must be too; if Meji is town, no info gained. In contrast, a Thor flip tells us something – if Thor is scum, Meji likely is too but I can track someone else; If Thor is town, I think Meji is too since I don’t see another partner. This flip would make me want to look at an entirely new set in the PoE pool .

Thus, my bottom line before my Thor case is that he is my preferred lynch. But I will sheep NK entirely once no cc is confirmed by Flicker.

.

The Thor Case

First, I’ll acknowledge what everyone else has. I am dealing with a veteran who is very good with words, and also with timing. Its going to be hard as hell to read him. Some of the reads below will likely feel forced. But it’s the best I can do. I will say that I tried to approach the game-read from a neutral POV since the statistics were off.

Second, let me deal with those statistics – which is what got me started down the path of scumming Thor. As I said yesterday, the statistics still make Thor scummy, but only by about 20%. Im not going to break this down, but it’s a matter of applying common sense within the town-lynch and town-save pools rather than doing it on pure math without common sense (which would be 300%). If you want the breakdown, ask, but the bottom line is it makes Thor slightly more likely to be scum.

Third, alright, we are down to it. Here are game factors I find scummy. The list below is not in any particular order, but rather as I analyzed it. Im going to spoil it just because this is enough of a wall.

Spoiler:

• Post 439 is the biggest part of the case, for a few reasons. First, Thor says his issues with “Nauci
  and
  Meji look valid.” I’ll pause before discussing the “and” to note that Thor puts Nauci first, even though the board at this point (and Thor previously) focused on Meji – odd? Second, turning to the “and” point, it is critical to note that Thor votes me and
  towns Oxy and Elephant
  . Thus, in this post, Thor says he suspects (Me, Nauci, Meji) and towns (Oxy, Elephant). BUT, when I claim PR, he entirely ignores his earlier suspicions to try to lynch in his town pool 525???? This is scum still trying to avoid a partner lynch.
  • Just for completeness, I will point out that Oxy questioned Thor on this, and Thor responded that he was relying on his read that one scum was on the Wagon, asking “Why should I reevaluate”. 547. Well the answer is obvious – because the two most likely scum on the wagon have now claimed PR. With new information, is it still just as likely that a scum is on the wagon, or is it more likely that BOTH your previous suspects are off. Only Scum!Thor refuses to reevaluate his initial assumption that one scum must be on wagon. Elephant’s 552 makes this point, echoed by NK 555
    
  • As an aside, I found the willingness to completely ignore Meji and jump to me (before my claim) is a little surprising even with his wagon assumption compared to his D1, which not only suss’ed Meji – 238– but null-defended me. (e.g., 80, 99, 125). But to go past NK, Me, AND Meji/Nauci (previously scumread) to Oxy just seems….Scum.
  .
  
• Thor is online and active in mafiascum games both immediately before and immediately after daybreak here, but does not talk in Rugby. I find an online and silent IC scummy. I think Town!IC reminds the board of the wisdom of a tracker claim and recommends against any other PR claim. I think Scum!IC is surprised to learn that his actions were blocked and stays silent. Note that Thor previously acknowledges that his silences can be intentional 129.
  
  
  
• Post 242 just rubbed me the wrong way if Thor is town. Maybe its true that he was null on every single spot other than James and Meji. But I find that hard to believe, which is why I pushed back. He has to have some town instincts even if he has no certainty. And if he does, and is not sharing them – is that helpful Town!IC behavior??? Or is it more likely Scum!IC depriving town of more expert assessments? I think the latter.
  
  
  
• Post 274 is contradicted by his (lack of) action after Flicker unvotes. Thor is saying he wants James or Meji lynched, but wont switch to Meji because the wagon is shorter. But once Flicker unvotes 333, Thor’s own vote determines what wagon is longer. Thor sees the unvote and posts (335), but does not switch.
  
  
  
• Thor’s answer 436 to missing the Elephant question 80 is suspect. He says he either missed it or would have been pithy. Well, he wasn’t pithy. And I don’t think he missed it, because it was repeated. 107. Sure, he may have decided not to answer. But with repeated questions, I would think he would at least remember the decision.
  
  
  
• As I said yesterday, I find Thor’s responses to James’s FoS (too many to link) to be substantively different than his responses to Elephant’s (e.g., 80, 105, 109). This could be because of the differing politeness of James and Elephant, but could also be mislynch hunting.
  
  
  
• Post 24 is too early to be making significant reads. But three aspects are slightly interesting.
  • Thor asks DDS to sheep him – trying to build a mislynch block?
  • Thor towns Nauci by implication for raising scumdaychat in thread – clearing partner? (cf. Nauci’s 65)
  • Thor says talking mechanics to gamesolve is a fine conversation – but D2 scums me for the same.

No, nothing is really AI here, just some questions.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 2.05

Oxy (1)Thor665 ,
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,

Meji Fan (3)Irrelephant11 , Flicker , Oxy L-2

Thor665 (2)teacher , Nauci
Not Voting (1), Not Known 15 ,

Day two deadline is Wednesday May 9, 9 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-09 09:00:00)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

[/size]

[Meji Fan]

Nauci is still better, and even if you like Thor what makes me a better friend for Thor than Nauci?

Lets look at Thor
Nauci and Thor have lots of chatter in the RVS stage silliness on mostly inconsequential stuff
Thor also takes pains to try and make my cases on Nauci look silly
Thor mentions Nauci and Meji are both interesting but then goes right to voting teacher 439
Thor says Nauci looks scum 558, still not voting Nauci

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote. Didnt realize my vote was still active.

[Oxy]

Lynch pool today is {thor, meji}

Both have great scum equity.

NK wants Meji, and his reasoning isn't bad.

If we don't hit scum,

teacher is going to get us a guilty in his one remaining night alive.

let's go let's go

[teacher]

Oxy it’s almost as if you missed my point and wanted NK to do so as well. Because the scum team is likely, but not definitely (Meji Thor) we should flip Thor. Town!Thor basically towns Meji because I see no other likely teammate. Town!Meji tells us nothing about Thor because there is a chance of Thor-PoE team.

[teacher]

Again will sheep NK but only once he reacts to that.

[Not Known 15]

I looked at the case and the reasoning of Teacher.
VOTE: Thor665
plan change:
If Thor is scum I will jailkeep Meji. If someone dies Meji is cleared. Teacher will not announce their target because that isn't needed.
If Thor is town then both Teacher and me have to look for someone, without coordination - we can't let scum know who we target.

[teacher]

VOTE: Thor.

Flicker can you confirm no cc before hammer, please?

[Oxy]

I am still okay with this
VOTE: Thor
L-1

[Flicker]

I don't counterclaim NK15 or teacher. I thought Thor was also a holdout on "confirmed no cc'ing," but if teacher say I'm the only one, I believe him. (I'm too lazy to go back through Thor's ISO right now to check myself, anyway. )

I'd rather wait for the weekend to be over and Irrelephant to give his thoughts before anyone (me?) intents to hammer/hammers, though. If Thor has "no cc'd," then intent to hammer is not as meaningful, except as a courtesy to other players, right? And like I said, I'm okay with Thor's lynch, but I don't want to blindside Irrelephant with twilight or night.

[teacher]

Makes sense. And Thor has not not cc’ed. You were just the only town slot. Thor could of course claim doctor but I would find that amazingly suspect at this point in general (and to me demonstrably false given tracking and tracker
).

[Oxy]

Intent to hammer should be given, even if someone has already claimed VT
Not because they might claim, but because if they are town, they might have final thoughts to share, and he might not get to them during the twilight period.

[mhsmith0]

Prodding Thor665, Irrelephant11