Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 2.06

Oxy (1)Thor665 ,
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,
Meji Fan (2)Irrelephant11 , Flicker

Thor665 (4)Nauci, Not Known 15, teacher , Oxy L-1

Day two deadline is Wednesday May 9, 9 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-09 09:00:00)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

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[Thor665]

If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?

I would argue that they do - how are you thinking they do not?
If I don't think both scum are assured on the wagon, but I do think it's more likely that one or both was on rather than off - why should I vote off the wagon exactly considering the claims?

You're saying this like it makes sense - it doesn't

@NK - sheeping a case from Teacher

When Teacher straight up said that his case wasn't alignment relevant

is...bad.
Why do you think it's alignment relevant when he doesn't?
Hint: his case is a hot mess.
His points only make sense if I'm scum with multiple people *and* are just randomly doing things 'because'. There's no actual plan he's describing.
Can you?

If not, vote Oxy.

@Teacher - to have fun with your bad math, here's a few other statistics.
I am 50/50 town or scum, because I was jauled and there was no kill. True statistic.
I am 22% likely to be scum at game start.
I am 25% likely to be scum now.
WHat are the odds that a Tracker tracked the persona JK targeted? Does the low number mean you're more likely lying to us? You're 50/50 scum after your claim statistically.
Wow, you share all of my statistics, don't you?
You know what all those numbers mean, besides being true? That doing random statistics is dumb.
I was more likely to be a NK target because I'm the IC. Did you account for that in your statistics?
I was also more likely to be a PR target - with that in mind, if I'm scum, why would I submit a NK?
Did you work either of those numbers into your silly statistic case?

Unvote me, sheep me on Oxy, stop playing badly.

[Oxy]

@Teacher - to have fun with your bad math, here's a few other statistics.
I am 50/50 town or scum, because I was jauled and there was no kill. True statistic.
I am 22% likely to be scum at game start.
I am 25% likely to be scum now.
WHat are the odds that a Tracker tracked the persona JK targeted? Does the low number mean you're more likely lying to us? You're 50/50 scum after your claim statistically.
Wow, you share all of my statistics, don't you?
You know what all those numbers mean, besides being true? That doing random statistics is dumb.
I was more likely to be a NK target because I'm the IC. Did you account for that in your statistics?
I was also more likely to be a PR target - with that in mind, if I'm scum, why would I submit a NK?
Did you work either of those numbers into your silly statistic case?

This is massively disingenuous. I'm not going to break down why this is an affront to statistics, but it is.

[Thor665]

The case on me is an affront to statistics.

[Oxy]

The case on me is an affront to statistics.

This was also true, but we got that under control.

[Thor665]

Funny how you can interact with me to try to belittle me, but run and hide from serious conversation.
If you flip scum what are the random statistics that I'm town then?

[Oxy]

I have not belittled you in any way???

I have given you a compliment or two, and I have not been shy when attacking your arguments, but I have not belittled you.

[teacher]

@NK - sheeping a case from Teacher When Teacher straight up said that his case wasn't alignment relevant is...bad.

This is also disingenuous. The final sentence of my case is about post 24, not the overall.

Thor, if youre town the whole board at this point has terrible reads, since the top two candidates for rope today will likely be town. TBH, at that point I will be looking at both elephant and oxy. And if my reads are that far off.....

[Oxy]

why would town!thor make meji town?

[teacher]

Thats the middle of my case, and why I want to lynch Thor more than Meji. I cant figure out who Meji could be partnered with if not Thor. The only other possibility given voting patterns is Nauci. But thats a hard hard stretch for me, given the early and hard tunnel.

[Oxy]

Oh - Just re read that. Yeah, I'm not sold on your vca. I don't think Flicker's vote stops them from being partnered.

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote.

Tell me more. Because the main reason I want Thor to eat rope is because I believe he tells us more than Meji.

I dont see how Flicker puts his partner at L-2 on a flashwagon after 2 other PRs claim. I dont. But sell me that Meji has another partner, and then I want to lynch the stronger read, rather than the most inormative.

[teacher]

*informative.

[Oxy]

I want to be clear - I think Thor is scum
I think Meji has great scum equity
I think Flicker has great scum equity
I think nauci has decent, but lesser, scum equity


I think elephant has the next highest scum equity
followed by you
And NK is confirmed town.

I haven't focused on associations yet. I'd rather wait for a red flip in this situation.

But I'm not going to rule out Flicker + Meji because of that vote. If they are a team, Flicker was soft busing Meji D1, and may have felt compelled to bus them today.

[Thor665]

Oxy says he thinks I'm scum - go back and read a few of my questions to him that he hasn't answered.
Then note that, for some reason, you're wagoning me.

Meh.

[teacher]

VOTE: Thor. Fair enough. Thor, will do after the flip if necessary.

[teacher]

(Just a reminder, since I forgot to say it, L-1)

[teacher]

I promise to get back all up in this shit this weekend

Dont drop the hammer before the lurker delurks.

[Thor665]

VOTE: Thor. Fair enough. Thor, will do after the flip if necessary.

So, your case is paper thin.
You're ducking discussing the bad statistics it's based on.

Okay, let's do this exercise to help you if you're town.
Which of the votes on me looks most disgusting to you?

[teacher]

Well since two are from locktown, the question is whether youre trying to cast shade at Oxy/Nauci. Im guessing Oxy.

Yes he hammered the wagon. But he also pointed out the lack of a secondary wagon on James and tried to join mine on Meji. I also agree with his responses to you.

Like I said, if youre town, I think the board's reads are way off.

But I also wonder if there is a reason the two vanity wagons from yesterday are lurking again.

[Thor665]

Well since two are from locktown, the question is whether youre trying to cast shade at Oxy/Nauci. Im guessing Oxy.

For starters - one locktown.
For second, considering I'm voting him...yeah, kinda am.
Not that the Nauci vote is particularly impressive.
To be frank, the NK vote is also pure garbage, it's just well intentioned garbage.

Yes he hammered the wagon. But he also pointed out the lack of a secondary wagon on James and tried to join mine on Meji. I also agree with his responses to you.

What about his responses to me do you agree with?
He has openly said he's kind of *not* responding to me, so...?

Like I said, if youre town, I think the board's reads are way off.

Agreed - why do you think that is?
Is the case on me strong enough that this shouldn't be happening? (hint: it isn't)

But I also wonder if there is a reason the two vanity wagons from yesterday are lurking again.

Do you wonder?
You're running me up on a joke and not even addressing my raised issues. If you're town you're being *very* tunneled and conf. biased and not actually paying attention to the rest of the game.

[Irrelephant11]

So sorry, didn't have my usual opportunity for a weekend post. Catching up, guessing my least favorite will stay Meji, and gonna try to understand the new votes.

[Irrelephant11]

To start, 586 (Teacher's Thor is scum post) is fairly convincing. There's definitely some stuff there that I see coming from scum more likely than town. However,

Spoiler:

Just remember Nauci after you lynch me

Nauci is still better, and even if you like Thor what makes me a better friend for Thor than Nauci?

Lets look at Thor
Nauci and Thor have lots of chatter in the RVS stage silliness on mostly inconsequential stuff
Thor also takes pains to try and make my cases on Nauci look silly
Thor mentions Nauci and Meji are both interesting but then goes right to voting teacher 439
Thor says Nauci looks scum 558, still not voting Nauci

Are we sure we're not lynching this?

Meji has ignored my question about the reasoning behind their scum read on Nauci three times now. Meji is now saying "Oh you think it's Thor? Great, well that points to Nauci lol." I feel like we're all gonna be kicking ourselves if we let a Meji/Nauci team watch us lynch each other to death while laughing behind the sceens about Meji only ever saying "guys lynch Nauci".

Thats the middle of my case, and why I want to lynch Thor more than Meji. I cant figure out who Meji could be partnered with if not Thor. The only other possibility given voting patterns is Nauci. But thats a hard hard stretch for me, given the early and hard tunnel.

Is it a hard tunnel? No one has ever taken it seriously. I agree that Meji/Thor makes sense as a team, especially given Thor's reluctance to inspect Meji Fan in the slightest this game day. However, I see Meji/Nauci easily, since we're all ignoring the content of Meji's posts - also, no town person should ever be playing to get ignored! Meji is playing a game of "as long as I'm the second-scummiest at all times, I'll live." Idk if partner is more likely Nauci or Thor (and I'll agree with Oxy that Flicker isn't totally off the table... Flicker is looking worse this game day for SURE), but ignoring the statistics case Meji is clearly the scummiest player.

[Irrelephant11]

If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?

I would argue that they do - how are you thinking they do not?
If I don't think both scum are assured on the wagon, but I do think it's more likely that one or both was on rather than off - why should I vote off the wagon exactly considering the claims?

You should vote off the wagon because that's where the scummy players are (including according to pre-Teacher-claim Thor)? Which was always my point that has always made sense, thank you very much.

Flicker, now that I'm here, should I be reading 596 as your intent to hammer Thor?

[Thor665]

If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?

I would argue that they do - how are you thinking they do not?
If I don't think both scum are assured on the wagon, but I do think it's more likely that one or both was on rather than off - why should I vote off the wagon exactly considering the claims?

You should vote off the wagon because that's where the scummy players are (including according to pre-Teacher-claim Thor)? Which was always my point that has always made sense, thank you very much.

That is not something I've agreed with - it's why the point isn't making sense.
You're arguing that I should do something based on your opinions (which is fine) but you appear to be grossly misunderstanding what I'm stating as my reasons, and then suggesting my reasons don't make sense (which is not fine).

Quote me saying most of the scum are off the wagon or that it's more likely scum are off the wagon and you'd have something.

But I've been saying pretty much the opposite of that all day - does my stance make sense now?