Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[ruru]

I honestly find it incredibly hard to believe Md will flip green here

[the worst]

VOTE: Math

Just for the record. You and skitter are my two top townreads right now (which makes me very happy)

[skitter30]

Just for the record if math flips scum I consider you a viable partner

[the worst]

Cross that bridge when we come to it

[Draynth]

I'd be fine with an MD lynch

VOTE: MathDino

That's L-2

[Draynth]

Brief readslist

Spoiler: AP (Town)

I still think AP is town, but his intent on getting a strong PR suspect (by his own admission) to claim D1 is frustrating for me

Spoiler: Mathdino (Scum)

I think math is scum.
He seems a strong advocate for using meta and consistently cited it when reading people. That's fine.
What's not fine is when he reverts back to a "lynch draynth" mentality at various points throughout the day without bothering to A)do a metadive which he said he'd do (and yet you want to lynch me for similar reasons) B)read any of the games I linked for the above reason.
Also him switching to NSG with like 30 hours left while also calling skitter out for doing the same is super scummy to me.
Lastly is the points that TW and Skitter have discussed, makes a lot of sense in my books.

Spoiler: TheWorst (Town)

TW is probably town, read progression seems legitimate and doesn't seem to be trying to push any specific lynches but lynch the best candidate.

Spoiler: Sunshine13 (Town)

I really like his point about people pushing a no information lynch, it's a good observation in my opinion.

Spoiler: Uglyduck (Town)

Despite him trying to lynch me I think he's probably town.
The only thing I'm concerned about is how easily he tried to jump on NSG with MD (Possible scum partners?) but he said he was reading backwards which if true would make sense.

Spoiler: NSG (Town)

Probably town, seems genuinely frustrated with Math's arguments against her case(s). Doesn't feel like forced anger from scum.

Spoiler: Oxy (Scum)

He's Scum.
He's Scum.
He's Scum.
He's Scum.
He's Scum.
Did you really think there'd be anything else here?

Spoiler: Skitter30 (Town)

Skitter is obvtown to me at this point

Spoiler: pinturicchio (Town)

Everything he brings up feels like it's from a town trying to solve the game POV rather than scum trying to push a narrative POV

Spoiler: Scioness Sajj (Town)

Might seem weird but suggesting her own lynch seems townie to me as it's a kind of "Vt's are expendable, lynch me for info" kinda view. I don't necessarily agree with it but I also can't see scum suggesting it so *shrug*

Spoiler: ofrhz (Slight Scum lean)

He's felt super opportunistic for most of the game tbh

Spoiler: ruru (Town)

*Insert Tumbleweed.jpeg*

[ruru]

Five votes are currently on a PR claim

Unofficial Votecount

Draynth(5)

~ northsidegal(87), Oxy(216), UglyDuck(56), Orfhz, AP

Mathdino (5)

~ skitter30, ruru, pin, tw, Draynth

Oxy(2)

~ Sunshine13(50)

ofrhz(1)

~ Scioness Sajj(81)

Scioness Sajj(1)

~ Mathdino


Players dead:

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-30 16:45:00)

[ruru]

Lynch the dinosaur

[northsidegal]

Would rather not

[brassherald]

Votecount 1.21 Updated

Draynth(5)

~ northsidegal(87), Oxy(216), UglyDuck(56), Orfhz, AP

Oxy(4)

~ the worst(332), Draynth(43), Sunshine13(50), pinturicchio(79)

Mathdino (2)

~ skitter30, ruru

ofrhz(1)

~ Scioness Sajj(81)

Scioness Sajj(1)

~ Mathdino


Players dead:

Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-05-01 16:45:00)

MOD REMINDERS

In addition to being great and powerful, I am a kind and merciful mod, I have decided to add 24 hours onto the deadline at this time. The Votecount remains the same because I have not checked if it has to be updated

[Scioness Sajj]

@mod replace me out, please.

[brassherald]

Searching for a replacement for Scioness Sajj, deadline will be frozen until such a replacement is found, at the time a replacement comes in, there will be 48 hours on the clock, should a lynch have not been achieved at that time.

[Oxy]

You're softclaiming pr already

I don't see why it's beneficial to specify the role in this situation

Specifying the role allows scum to tell, in 2/5 cases, whether it's VT fake softing a role outside the setup or not

Scum can claim without getting CCed, so making scum claim a specific role on d1 doesn't help much

Almost half of VT fakeclaims instantly out themselves to scum by claiming a specific role

I am like 99.99% sure Md is aware of this because he studies setups

Doesn't this only imply MD is scummy in a world where Draynth is likely to fake claim PR as VT at the deadline?

Wouldn't that be kind of game throwing from town!draynth?

What am I missing?

[Oxy]

@Sajj ?????

[Oxy]

Well, the replace out basically spews sajj slot town - except in the case where she is scum with exactly MD, I guess...

[pinturicchio]

OMG ofrhz and Dino are scumpartners in crime and there's no vig in the setup!!!

[ruru]

Doesn't this only imply MD is scummy in a world where Draynth is likely to fake claim PR as VT at the deadline?

Wouldn't that be kind of game throwing from town!draynth?

What am I missing?

I think Draynth is currently doing town a service if he is VT

Suppose Draynth is VT, someone else hardclaims PR tomorrow, and he is alive. He can hardclaim VT at that point to avoid a situation where 3 PRs are claiming (which would bait the actual third PR to out), so it doesn't hurt town

If you trade VT!Draynth getting mislynched today for VT!Draynth getting mislynched (for lying) tomorrow, not much was lost, and it's not even guaranteed he would get lynched for lying. VT getting lynched is maybe the typical D1 outcome, but it's not an above average outcome

If VT!Draynth gets NKed, then obviously town gained a lot

[Oxy]

The above post seems like bad theory to me. I must admit, I'm hard pressed to find an absolute reason why it's awful theory - someone please help me out - but it can't be right for VT to always claim a generic PR when they are getting wagoned D1.

People would have figured it out by now, if it was.

Oh I figured it out - it's because it gives scum the ability to soft claim PR, and then walk it back the next day. And people won't actually lynch them D2, because it becomes common place for VT to soft claim PR to stop themselves from getting lynched.

Also, D1's would become gross because literally every wagon would claim PR, and then what? Now you're in a situation where town is always lynching a claimed PR on D1, and sometimes those claims will be real.

@all please expand on why VT claiming PR to avoid a lynch is bad. I know it is, but... words.

[ruru]

I think this is all fairly specific to the fact that scum can't be cced in this setup without a massclaim. Otherwise, claiming specific role would be pro-town and anyone not doing it would be suspicious

I guess in the game theoretically perfect game d1 claims are mostly irrelevant in this setup?

I do think it's extremely risky for scum to attempt in real life because real life towns are going to lynch liars more often than not (and not everyone is going to see the game the way I'm seeing it)

[pinturicchio]

Draynth hasn' claimed PR so everything you're saying right now is nonsense. Vote Dino and win a wonderful price

[Oxy]

I think this is all fairly specific to the fact that scum can't be cced in this setup without a massclaim. Otherwise, claiming specific role would be pro-town and anyone not doing it would be suspicious

I haven't played a closed setup yet

but I bet VT's don't claim PR to save themselves from the lynch.

I'd really like to hear thoughts on this from someone like NSG.

Also, UNVOTE: because contrary to what Pinturicchio just said, draynth has claimed PR.

I'm game for a lynch on the worst, ofrhz, and skitter

[ruru]

@mod replace me out, please.

I hoped to play a game with SS-that-I'm-not-trying-to-mislynch

[pinturicchio]

Instead of being pretentious, you could show us where did Draynth claimed PR?

[ruru]

I think this is all fairly specific to the fact that scum can't be cced in this setup without a massclaim. Otherwise, claiming specific role would be pro-town and anyone not doing it would be suspicious

I haven't played a closed setup yet

but I bet VT's don't claim PR to save themselves from the lynch.

I think roles can be cced (e.g. "there are probably not 2 cops in the setup") and also flavor mistakes can make fake claims suspicious

I haven't played closed setups myself but I've seen fake claims (especially ambiguous soft claims) from VT in them, especially d1

The difference in this setup is scum picked the roles so they know exactly which roles can't be cced. That is highly unusual

[Oxy]

Instead of being pretentious, you could show us where did Draynth claimed PR?

I don't think I'm being pretentious?

How are you reading that bit where he goes, I really don't want to claim with 12 hours left even though I'm barely ever in the thread?

Again, if he is VT, I think that is playing against win con?