Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Thor665]

I'm almost tempted to post a rebuttal to the teacher case on me just because multiple people are claiming it makes sense.

[Irrelephant11]

No,

Iknow

you've been saying scum are more likely to be on the wagon than off. The problem I have with that is it doesn't line up with your general scum reads. At the point at which your on-wagon scumreads claimed power roles, I'd expect you to adjust your vote analysis. Instead, you've started scum reading previous town reads. A new question from mfor you - why does your vote analysis matter more to you than who you said is playing scummy D1/at day start?

Also, come to think of it, why are you so sure about where scum voted? At first, I assumed it had to do with some mix of randomness statistics and the perceived alignments of the particular players who did/didn't vote for JB. But now you're showing that you're so confident in your voting logic that it makes you scum read previous town reads when process of elimination tells you to. What gives you this confidence, even as circumstances surrounding players' aligments change?

[teacher]

Is it a hard tunnel? No one has ever taken it seriously. I agree that Meji/Thor makes sense as a team, especially given Thor's reluctance to inspect Meji Fan in the slightest this game day. However, I see Meji/Nauci easily, since we're all ignoring the content of Meji's posts - also, no town person should ever be playing to get ignored! Meji is playing a game of "as long as I'm the second-scummiest at all times, I'll live." Idk if partner is more likely Nauci or Thor (and I'll agree with Oxy that Flicker isn't totally off the table... Flicker is looking worse this game day for SURE), but ignoring the statistics case Meji is clearly the scummiest player.

Agreed Meji is scummier than Thor and would be my lynch WITHOUT associatives.

The Nauci associative is what is pointing me towards Thor. I have a hard time seeing Meji's D1 arguments on Nauci (before clear wagons and counter wagons had formed) as bussing/distancing. I have an even harder time seeing Nauci's repeat no PR identification prayer at start of D2 coming from scum (indeed, Thor was scumming me for my behavior). But I do want Nauci to respond to your questions (regarding reading in her absence) before a hammer drops.

Im not sure we shouldnt lynch Meji. I think Thor is the stronger lynch especially pending his explanation of why he is now down to his townreads on the wagon, rather than the scumreads off it.

[teacher]

Thor is online and active in mafiascum games both immediately before and immediately after daybreak here, but does not talk in Rugby. I find an online and silent IC scummy. I think Town!IC reminds the board of the wisdom of a tracker claim and recommends against any other PR claim. I think Scum!IC is surprised to learn that his actions were blocked and stays silent. Note that Thor previously acknowledges that his silences can be intentional 129.

Thor, please consider this a question. Since you were online and playing at daybreak, why didnt you talk here?

[Thor665]

No,

Iknow

you've been saying scum are more likely to be on the wagon than off. The problem I have with that is it doesn't line up with your general scum reads. At the point at which your on-wagon scumreads claimed power roles, I'd expect you to adjust your vote analysis. Instead, you've started scum reading previous town reads. A new question from mfor you - why does your vote analysis matter more to you than who you said is playing scummy D1/at day start?

I literally said in the post where I laid out my thoughts, that if I was wrong about Teacher (and the claim takes me down that path) that I would need to reassess my town reads.
Why do you not understand that, even then, I was making a clear statement of how strongly I believed scum was on the wagon?
How does that suggest any change in how I'm approaching the game?

I can agree you don't need to like my reads.
But I don't get how you're being confused about my stated priorities and thought process.
Does this clear it up?

Also, come to think of it, why are you so sure about where scum voted? At first,

I assumed it had to do with some mix of randomness statistics and the perceived alignments of the particular players who did/didn't vote for JB

. But now you're showing that you're so confident in your voting logic that it makes you scum read previous town reads when process of elimination tells you to. What gives you this confidence, even as circumstances surrounding players' aligments change?

I sort of feel your initial answer (bolded) qualifies as an answer to your own question. It would pretty much be how I answer it now - how do you *not* find that a valid answer and I'll clarify further.

[Thor665]

Thor is online and active in mafiascum games both immediately before and immediately after daybreak here, but does not talk in Rugby. I find an online and silent IC scummy. I think Town!IC reminds the board of the wisdom of a tracker claim and recommends against any other PR claim. I think Scum!IC is surprised to learn that his actions were blocked and stays silent. Note that Thor previously acknowledges that his silences can be intentional 129.

Thor, please consider this a question. Since you were online and playing at daybreak, why didnt you talk here?

Two reasons.

1. I play in more than one game at a time and cannot spend time I spend in one place somewhere else.
2. I didn't have strong enough thoughts on scum yet to want to color Newbie sheep too strongly to my thoughts, and wanted to see them form some thoughts first for my analysis.

Why do you think scum me wouldn't post besides apparently suspecting you would hard push for claims?

[Oxy]

In post 266, Oxy wrote:
If James is town, there is probably 0-1 scum currently voting for him.

This is a meaningless value call.
I would also note that there's a decent chance that it is also just about as statistically true if James is scum.

Why is there being exactly 1 scum on that wagon not a meaningless value call?

[teacher]

@Thor, I will let elephant speak for himself, but 629 doesnt answer it for me. And the reason is me. You've made quite clear that you THINK my claim is legit, but are VERY FAR from being locked. So.......

You think that at least one scum is on the wagon. Because NK is locked, that scum is in (Me, Oxy, Elephant) from your PoV. I dont get why you move to Oxy rather than Elephant OR off-wagon, when

• Oxy tried to build a counterwagon on Meji, while Elephant didnt;
• Im still suspect.

In other words, if I were playing from your perspective my scum pool would be:

• Onwagon: Elephant (strongest), Oxy (second-best), me (still possible) -- CHOOSING BETWEEN THREE;
• Offwagon: Meji (strongest), Nauci, (Flicker omitted for pushing off wagon).

I really dont get why you pick Oxy out of this pool, rather than Meji. By your own logic that I am still pretty suspect, Meji at this point seems like the much stronger choice, and the only reason I dont see you pushing it is the team.

[Irrelephant11]

Wow if you're being obstinate scum then I am really getting too caught up. If you're town it's really frustrating how much I have to try to communicate this single idea to you.

Let me try to illustrate what I'm saying:

A B C D E voted out town
F G H voted other players.
You're A, and think B, C, and F are scummy. Therefore, you think and say, more scum were on the wagon than off.

Then, you become convinced B and C are town PRs. You

ignore

F, and start trying to decide which of D and/or E are scum.

This no longer fits random chance, since from your POV there are more scum prospects off the wagon than on (3:2, if you choose to ignore all PR claimants). This no longer fits any read you've expresed previously. It ignores F, who you've said is scummy.

Yes, you've said in advance that if you're wrong about B and/or C, yo'ud reevaluate. But you're not reevaluating the statement "more scum were likely to be on the wagon than off", which imo would be the logical thing to do. Instead, you're reevaluating which of the players on the wagon are scum.

You never answered my question about why you are so confident in your vote analysis. You seem unrealistically confident about

where

scum voted, even if that takes you to a place where you have to flip your reads: this doesn't make sense to me if reads are the reason for your vote analysis. You've changed your reads to fit the vote analysis that's based on out-of-date reads.

Are you at all catching where the cognitive dissonance is for me? I'm only finding logic for you to scum read Oxy out of nowhere if you are scum trying to ignore your lurker partner.

pedit: welp sorry that we're all asking basically the same thing here, but since I wrote this all out I'm not deleting it, so there.

[Thor665]

You think that at least one scum is on the wagon.

Yes.

Because NK is locked, that scum is in (Me, Oxy, Elephant) from your PoV.

Yes.

I dont get why you move to Oxy rather than Elephant OR off-wagon, when

I town Elephant far more than Oxy.
Off wagon seems the opposite of everything I've been saying.

Oxy tried to build a counterwagon on Meji, while Elephant didnt

This is an associative tell, and thus really weak until we get at least one scum flip.
I'll agree that if Meji or Elephant flips scum this becomes a potentially telling issue.
Why should it be an issue now?

Im still suspect.

You are.

In other words, if I were playing from your perspective my scum pool would be:

• Onwagon: Elephant (strongest), Oxy (second-best), me (still possible) -- CHOOSING BETWEEN THREE;
• Offwagon: Meji (strongest), Nauci, (Flicker omitted for pushing off wagon).

I really dont get why you pick Oxy out of this pool, rather than Meji.

Well...as I've stated multiple times - I think scum is on the wagon, so the off wagon choices are already pretty much off the board for me.
I massively disagree with the associative case making Elephant more scummy than Oxy, but if that's your speed rock on - just don't act like it's weird I disagree unless you can explain why Meji is lock town (and since you're voting me I'll presume you can't, therefore what are you on about here?)

By your own logic that I am still pretty suspect, Meji at this point seems like the much stronger choice, and the only reason I dont see you pushing it is the team.

I agree as long as you ignore some of my stances and invent a read for me that my vote placement looks questionable.
Why does it look questionable not doing these things?

[Oxy]

In post 266, Oxy wrote:
If James is town, there is probably 0-1 scum currently voting for him.

This is a meaningless value call.
I would also note that there's a decent chance that it is also just about as statistically true if James is scum.

Why is there being exactly 1 scum on that wagon not a meaningless value call?

@thor don't skip this one, mate

[Thor665]

Wow if you're being obstinate scum then I am really getting too caught up. If you're town it's really frustrating how much I have to try to communicate this single idea to you.

I'm not trying to be difficult - I feel the communication breakdown is happening on your end, frankly. But I'm trying to work through it.

A B C D E voted out town
F G H voted other players.
You're A, and think B, C, and F are scummy. Therefore, you think and say, more scum were on the wagon than off.

Absolutely.

Then, you become convinced B and C are town PRs. You

ignore

F, and start trying to decide which of D and/or E are scum.

This ignores that in the above I think scum are massively likely on the wagon, and also supposes without real evidence, that I would consider soft scum reads equal to that read <--- this is the ongoing breakdown in my opinion.

Yes, you've said in advance that if you're wrong about B and/or C, yo'ud reevaluate. But you're not reevaluating the statement "more scum were likely to be on the wagon than off", which imo would be the logical thing to do. Instead, you're reevaluating which of the players on the wagon are scum.

Yes...what's the issue with that?
I never said I'd reevaluate a core scumhunting belief.
I said I'd reevaluate my town reads.
You can disagree with the value of doing that - but my stance is super clear, yeah?

You never answered my question about why you are so confident in your vote analysis. You seem unrealistically confident about

where

scum voted, even if that takes you to a place where you have to flip your reads: this doesn't make sense to me if reads are the reason for your vote analysis. You've changed your reads to fit the vote analysis that's based on out-of-date reads.

I've changed the vote analysis based on new info.
Like, let's say I'm all "Top scum reads are B on the wagon and C off the wagon!"
Then mod shows up and goes "lol, B is confirmed town"
Yes, my reads can and should change with the new info.
However, if I think it's smart to lynch on the wagon - that does not then require me to vote C.

Are you at all catching where the cognitive dissonance is for me? I'm only finding logic for you to scum read Oxy out of nowhere if you are scum trying to ignore your lurker partner.

I see where it is, I'm just not sure why it is, or how I can explain my stance clearer.
Do you get my stance now?
You don't need to *agree* with my stance.
The point is to understand my stance so at least you can assess if the stance is scummy or not.

[Thor665]

Why is there being exactly 1 scum on that wagon not a meaningless value call?

I would note you quote me agreeing with you.
Where I found it meaningless was a discussion of his alignment being interconnected with the thought.
I never suggested scum weren't on the wagon at any point, did I?

[Thor665]

Also, quite frankly, if all i said was "hurr, there's one scum in this group of five players" it would be a meaningless value call.
The value is in saying which you think is scum.

[Oxy]

I wonder how many times it is going to take before I really learn that trying to convince scum they are scum is futile.

Can we hammer this, please?

[Not Known 15]

You think that at least one scum is on the wagon.


Yes.

It is the most likely option...
...but you treat it as an absolute truth.
Not as rebuttable assumption.
Why?

[Thor665]

I wonder how many times it is going to take before I really learn that trying to convince scum they are scum is futile.

Can we hammer this, please?

Yeah...present a needly hypocrisy attack.
get owned.
Ignore ownage and just repeat that i should be lynched.
Town play at its finest, amirite?

You think that at least one scum is on the wagon.


Yes.

It is the most likely option...
...but you treat it as an absolute truth.
Not as rebuttable assumption.
Why?

Why should I not treat it as truth right now?
What rebuttal exists to the idea exactly?

[Thor665]

Spoiler: As an education after I flip for anyone who is town and liked teacher's case

The Thor Case

First, I’ll acknowledge what everyone else has. I am dealing with a veteran who is very good with words, and also with timing. Its going to be hard as hell to read him.

Some of the reads below will likely feel forced.

But it’s the best I can do. I will say that I tried to approach the game-read from a neutral POV since the statistics were off.

That should be a giant warning sign to everyone.

Second, let me deal with those statistics – which is what got me started down the path of scumming Thor. As I said yesterday, the statistics still make Thor scummy, but only by about 20%. Im not going to break this down, but it’s a matter of applying common sense within the town-lynch and town-save pools rather than doing it on pure math without common sense (which would be 300%). If you want the breakdown, ask, but the bottom line is it makes Thor slightly more likely to be scum.

Still hasn't address the statistical odds that both PRs target same player.
Bet it's lower than the odds of me being scum - but needs to be factual for teacher to be town.
That's a core point to consider in realizing that all of these numbers are poppycock.

Spoiler: Thor case

• [*]Post 439 is the biggest part of the case, for a few reasons. First, Thor says his issues with “Nauci

  and

  Meji look valid.” I’ll pause before discussing the “and” to note that Thor puts Nauci first, even though the board at this point (and Thor previously) focused on Meji – odd?

  Why is this "odd". Is there something scummy in me suspecting one more than the other?
  Also, frankly, by my posting I've put a lot more effort into pressuring Neji than I have Nauci, so theoretically the "odd" would be me random reversing.
  Finally, it's just a list - there's no indication from my actions before or after that I'm listing them in order of strength of read on them. So...?
  

  Second, turning to the “and” point, it is critical to note that Thor votes me and

  towns Oxy and Elephant

  . Thus, in this post, Thor says he suspects (Me, Nauci, Meji) and towns (Oxy, Elephant). BUT, when I claim PR, he entirely ignores his earlier suspicions to try to lynch in his town pool 525????

  Yes, it is shocking that a PR claim can adjust reads.
  I also note that people aren't trying to lynch NK anymore - is that scummy for everyone who was voting him?
  It also ignores THAT I SAID THIS

  I'm also thinking either teacher is scum or one of my town reads is wrong.

  Yeah, what was I doing - secretly setting up my ability to change a read in case you claimed a PR?
  Or was I *even then* being clear in my reads?
  You're either playing terribly for not mentioning this or are scum (and the same goes for everyone not fact checking this case.
  

  Just for completeness, I will point out that Oxy questioned Thor on this, and Thor responded that he was relying on his read that one scum was on the Wagon, asking “Why should I reevaluate”. 547. Well the answer is obvious – because the two most likely scum on the wagon have now claimed PR.

  And you're now calling me scum for reevaluating?
  That's narf.
  

  With new information, is it still just as likely that a scum is on the wagon

  Yes, it is.
  

  or is it more likely that BOTH your previous suspects are off. Only Scum!Thor refuses to reevaluate his initial assumption that one scum must be on wagon.

  Except I already indicated when I voted you that I considered scum on the wagon to be more likely than the strength of other reads.
  

  [*]As an aside, I found the willingness to completely ignore Meji and jump to me (before my claim) is a little surprising even with his wagon assumption compared to his D1, which not only suss’ed Meji – 238– but null-defended me. (e.g., 80, 99, 125). But to go past NK, Me, AND Meji/Nauci (previously scumread) to Oxy just seems….Scum.

  Or it seems like Thor really buys into his scum hunting theory - which even a casual glance at any of my other games will show is true.
  

  [*]Thor is online and active in mafiascum games both immediately before and immediately after daybreak here, but does not talk in Rugby. I find an online and silent IC scummy. I think Town!IC reminds the board of the wisdom of a tracker claim and recommends against any other PR claim. I think Scum!IC is surprised to learn that his actions were blocked and stays silent. Note that Thor previously acknowledges that his silences can be intentional 129.

  What was my scum advantage to being quiet exactly?
  I also note you're saying "reminds about tracker claim and not other claims" Literally no where did I indicate claims should happen without L-1 unless it was a Tracker on Day 2. I'm sorry it's theory scummy that I gave good advice Day 1 and then went quiet in the hope everyone would be an idiot and forget my advice Day 2 so I could secretly get people to claim?
  
  

  [*]Post 242 just rubbed me the wrong way if Thor is town. Maybe its true that he was null on every single spot other than James and Meji. But I find that hard to believe, which is why I pushed back. He has to have some town instincts even if he has no certainty. And if he does, and is not sharing them – is that helpful Town!IC behavior??? Or is it more likely Scum!IC depriving town of more expert assessments? I think the latter.

  If I'm the scum IC my "expert assessments" would all be lies anyway, so...what would I gain by denying them to town exactly?
  Also, considering ow little everyone was doing at that stage - it was kind of weird people had more scum and town reads than I did.
  

  [*]Post 274 is contradicted by his (lack of) action after Flicker unvotes. Thor is saying he wants James or Meji lynched, but wont switch to Meji because the wagon is shorter. But once Flicker unvotes 333, Thor’s own vote determines what wagon is longer. Thor sees the unvote and posts (335), but does not switch.

  What?
  So you agree that my vote determined which wagon was bigger.
  You also agree that I was good with lynching either.
  So...why should I move off one wagon to create an equally sized wagon? By that logic as soon as I moved I should move back. It's idiotic as a complaint because it doesn't actually show any hypocrisy.
  Where and how do you think it does?
  

  [*]Thor’s answer 436 to missing the Elephant question 80 is suspect. He says he either missed it or would have been pithy. Well, he wasn’t pithy. And I don’t think he missed it, because it was repeated. 107. Sure, he may have decided not to answer. But with repeated questions, I would think he would at least remember the decision.

  So, basically even though my eventual answer wasn't really helpful to the vastly broad question you'd like to debate whether it was pithy.
  There is also (as usual) no actual discussion here of how not answering benefited my scum game beyond just kind of being mean (which actually doesn't help the scum wincon, so...)
  

  [*]As I said yesterday, I find Thor’s responses to James’s FoS (too many to link) to be substantively different than his responses to Elephant’s (e.g., 80, 105, 109). This could be because of the differing politeness of James and Elephant, but could also be mislynch hunting.

  "Thor may have reacted negatively to one player because they were more rude *OR* he could be scum hunting for mislynches...but not a mislynch on Elephant, scum Thor wouldn't want to mislynch him...for...no reason."
  

  [*]Post 24 is too early to be making significant reads. But three aspects are slightly interesting.

  • Thor asks DDS to sheep him – trying to build a mislynch block?
  • Thor towns Nauci by implication for raising scumdaychat in thread – clearing partner? (cf. Nauci’s 65)
  • Thor says talking mechanics to gamesolve is a fine conversation – but D2 scums me for the same.

No, nothing is really AI here, just some questions.[/quote]
A mislynch block is also a town block if James had flipped scum. Why wouldn't town try to make a block? No reason.
So now Nauci might be my partner even though the entire rest of the case hinges on the super thin Meji connection? If I'm Nauci's partner is any of the Meji stuff still scummy?
I didn't scum you for talking game mechanics. I did call you anti-town for pushing for claims. Quote me to prove me wrong?

[Not Known 15]

Why should I not treat it as truth right now?
What rebuttal exists to the idea exactly?

There is a possibility that all scum votes off wagon. It happens.
If all your scumreads point off wagon, and none on wagon...
how likely is it that all scum are off the wagon?

[Irrelephant11]

I think this might clarify things completely for me: Is it the case that you just always assume a town lynch on D1 means there is a scum on the wagon, and that regardless of other information this is such a helpful general assumption that you shuold follow it to your grave?

Also, I wanted to read your case on Oxy quick, and this is all I found.

Oxy says he thinks I'm scum - go back and read a few of my questions to him that he hasn't answered.
Then note that, for some reason, you're wagoning me.

Meh.

Even assuming you just really really have to vote between Oxy and me - which is the ssumption we're all questioning - what makes you think Oxy is scummy?

[teacher]

Can we hammer this, please?

If it is scum (and I think it is), nauci is back to lurking without answering Elephant's good question. I dont think we should hammer without getting info from this slot. I dont want a hammer before Nauci posts.

I'm also interested (but less so) in seeing how Meji reacts to knowing that the lynchpool is presumptatively them or Thor.

PEDIT: 614 was a Thor question to me that I havent answered. Thor, I honestly didnt and dont believe your questions were game advancing, so much as a distracting 1v1. I dont blame Oxy for not engaging, which is why I liked how he responded. Same reason Im not replying to your response on my case. I think youre likely scum, and dont see the need to debate. I laid out my views, others can take from both our positions what they want to take and make their own decisions. Replies not needed.

[mhsmith0]

Prodding nauci.

[Flicker]

Flicker, now that I'm here, should I be reading 596 as your intent to hammer Thor?

Yes. Although I'll hold it until Nauci posts, since that's what teacher would like (and I would, too). (She's due for a prod, so hopefully that gets her in here to do

something

.)

PEedit:

Mod, you read my mind.

[Oxy]

Still hasn't address the statistical odds that both PRs target same player.
Bet it's lower than the odds of me being scum - but needs to be factual for teacher to be town.
That's a core point to consider in realizing that all of these numbers are poppycock.

I don't understand why you are still arguing statistical fallacies.

The only use this statistic has is to point out that low probability things do occur.

[Oxy]

actually, we have intent to hammer. You don't have to answer that, Thor.