Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Not Known 15]

2 things that make Thor scummy
1.

I'm almost tempted to post a rebuttal to the teacher case on me just because multiple people are claiming it makes sense.

Excuse me? Any town should say "I will post a rebuttal shortly" not that what thor wrote there. This looks like hastily typed by panicking scum under pressure.

2.
The VOTES.
Meji and Thor avoid voting each other like the plague, even in this vote situation(especially Meji avoiding to vote thor). It is likely that they are scumpartners.

[Thor665]

There is a possibility that all scum votes off wagon. It happens.
If all your scumreads point off wagon, and none on wagon...
how likely is it that all scum are off the wagon?

1. Absolutely.
2. Depends on the quality of my reads.

I think this might clarify things completely for me: Is it the case that you just always assume a town lynch on D1 means there is a scum on the wagon, and that regardless of other information this is such a helpful general assumption that you shuold follow it to your grave?

I wouldn't pu tit to that level o fpsychotic even though multiple people now appear to think I am, so maybe I'm explaining myself overly intensely - but, yes.

Even assuming you just really really have to vote between Oxy and me - which is the ssumption we're all questioning - what makes you think Oxy is scummy?

Oxy is scummy for empty cheerleading a lynch and also trying to hang to the rear of every issue.

PEDIT: 614 was a Thor question to me that I havent answered. Thor, I honestly didnt and dont believe your questions were game advancing, so much as a distracting 1v1. I dont blame Oxy for not engaging, which is why I liked how he responded. Same reason Im not replying to your response on my case. I think youre likely scum, and dont see the need to debate. I laid out my views, others can take from both our positions what they want to take and make their own decisions. Replies not needed.

I agree that you and Oxy are both digging in your heels super aggressively and avoiding any interactions that might obligate you to discuss the validity of your stances.

Still hasn't address the statistical odds that both PRs target same player.
Bet it's lower than the odds of me being scum - but needs to be factual for teacher to be town.
That's a core point to consider in realizing that all of these numbers are poppycock.

I don't understand why you are still arguing statistical fallacies.

The only use this statistic has is to point out that low probability things do occur.

Since half the presented case on me is derp and the other half is blind sheeping of statistics, and both paired with refusal to debate and discuss them - I just want to point them out.
Why do you think I'm scum again exactly?

2 things that make Thor scummy
1.

I'm almost tempted to post a rebuttal to the teacher case on me just because multiple people are claiming it makes sense.

Excuse me? Any town should say "I will post a rebuttal shortly" not that what thor wrote there. This looks like hastily typed by panicking scum under pressure.

2.
The VOTES.
Meji and Thor avoid voting each other like the plague, even in this vote situation(especially Meji avoiding to vote thor). It is likely that they are scumpartners.

1. I don't think that makes any sense and comes with no backing or reasoning. (this also ignores that I did actually post up a rebuttal...but, you are trying to ignore a lot this game for reasons that escape and frustrate me.
2. I also avoided voting you - are we scumbuddies? I've actually not voted most of the game.

[Thor665]

As my last series of requests and lessons before someone derp hammers me;

The refusal to actually discuss the case on me from multiple slots is a big indicator of the issue with this push.
Another is that the core of the push is half based on a strange connection to Meji - which even while it exists in a very vague way, if the reason to explain why I'm scum is "because Meji is scum and here is how he's protecting him" it is straight up stupid to lynch me first in that equation if you can describe how Meji is scum without me being obligated scum.
NK is town, he's dead tonight, but he's town, so whoop-de-doo.
Take any claim from teacher tomorrow with 1000% more salt then you accepted it today.
I'd still pretty much suggest lynching Oxy tomorrow.

I know you'll ignore all of this, but want it out there clearly so I can be salty in post game.

[Irrelephant11]

I think this might clarify things completely for me: Is it the case that you just always assume a town lynch on D1 means there is a scum on the wagon, and that regardless of other information this is such a helpful general assumption that you shuold follow it to your grave?

I wouldn't pu tit to that level o fpsychotic even though multiple people now appear to think I am, so maybe I'm explaining myself overly intensely - but, yes.

Even assuming you just really really have to vote between Oxy and me - which is the ssumption we're all questioning - what makes you think Oxy is scummy?

Oxy is scummy for empty cheerleading a lynch and also trying to hang to the rear of every issue.

1. Okay. I now understand you, even though I disagree with you.
2. Tell me more. With intent to hammer stated, you have nothing to lose as town by sharing more about your current scummiest read.

[Thor665]

1. Cool
2. What sort of "more" would you like? I prefer succinct cases because I think long ones lead to including dumb theories and paranoia. I can provide examples of him doing what I'm saying he's doing, if that excites you, but unless my case is confusing you as to what I'm saying I don't see a real need/value to using more words to say the same thing.

[Not Known 15]

1. I don't think that makes any sense and comes with no backing or reasoning. (this also ignores that I did actually post up a rebuttal...but,

you are trying to ignore a lot this game for reasons that escape and frustrate me.

I added the underline and the boldness.

Because this is EXTREMELY SCUMMY.

...On day 1 I was mostly focused on giving reasons for a james lynch and you agreed with a james lynch and did not attack my presumptions. This looks highly scummy;

I distill that Thor thought that my Day 1 reasons were bullshit to them and instead of calling me out they did nothing against it and sheeped bullshit

. Can that come from town? I doubt that very much.

@Elephant please hammer.

2. I also avoided voting you - are we scumbuddies? I've actually not voted most of the game.

... I told you that it is mostly Meji. Meji implicates you. However; I was never voted to L-1 and ignored a counterwagon I assessed as scummy. Which is what both you and Meji did for each other. You kept pointing to others. Meji pointed to Nauci and you and then proceeded with Nauci who had no other votes instead you who had more.

[Thor665]

@Not Known - at what point did I suggest your read on James was BS?
You're not quoting me doing that - you're literally inventing a stance, applying it to me, and calling me scummy for doing it.

If Meji implicates me, why are you lynching me before Meji exactly? Am I scum if Meji isn't?

Maybe Meji is avoiding the wagon on me because Meji doesn't want to look scummy when I flip town - is that a thought you've ruled out for any reason?

[Oxy]

@thor if you're town, please give me your thoughts on a world where I am also town

[Irrelephant11]

1. Cool
2. What sort of "more" would you like? I prefer succinct cases because I think long ones lead to including dumb theories and paranoia. I can provide examples of him doing what I'm saying he's doing, if that excites you, but unless my case is confusing you as to what I'm saying I don't see a real need/value to using more words to say the same thing.

A couple examples would be nice.

@NK15, Flicker has stated intent, and I'd rather not give her the opportunity to back out of it later or take false credit next game day (e.g. "He's town? I was totally gonna take back my intent?" "He's scum? See, intent was there!") At this point I'm playing like it's twilight. I'm asking Thor to say more so we have more to analyze later, and hoping that Nauci gets some reads in because whether she's sick town or lurky scum I want her to talk more before the day ends. I do also feel strongly at this point that Thor is one of our two best lynch options, but I don't see the use in rushing the lynch? Let me know if I'm misssing a good reason to move more quickly

[Not Known 15]

If Meji implicates me, why are you lynching me before Meji exactly? Am I scum if Meji isn't?

You being town would erase that implication that also implicates themselves if you are scum
If you are scum then we can catch every possible partner via power roles and lynch.
If Meji is scum and we lynch them tomorrow we have a much smaller pool of suspects if you are town.
If you and Meji are town we lose anyways..., unless, of course either me or teacher catch scum tonight. Especially if I catch scum.

@Elephant yeah please don't hammer asap, that was an overreaction.

[teacher]

@thor if you're town, please give me your thoughts on a world where I am also town

echoed. If you’re town and with intent out there please lay out your best assessment. (Leave out oxy also town for me).

[Thor665]

@thor if you're town, please give me your thoughts on a world where I am also town

If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.

A couple examples would be nice.

Okay, here's an example of him hanging back on topics;

Look at both the Thor and James wagon. Note when Oxy's attacks start vs. when his vote comes in. He basically spends all of Day 1 sheeping teacher. On Day 2 he got in on Meji late, and only moved to me after both Teacher had voted me and I'd voted Oxy. That's a wagon hanger, not a wagon leader.

For his empty cheerleading, let's look at this;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10145277
He attacks me (for hypocrisy).
He repeats the attack when i don't answer right away (a follow up attack by inference)
I then answer.
He doesn't rebut my answer, he just goes "hah, scum!" even though he has shown no hypocrisy. That is just empty noise, he's trying to make it *seem* like there's a reason to scum read me, when in fact there's nothing.

Here's another;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10139516
Thor is scum for not townreading my undercutting of teacher!
I ask him why should I town read it and point out there is no undercutting of any worth.
He counters that he took it from, like (making up these numbers, but they are thematically accurate) 400% Thor is scum to 20% Thor is scum.
I point out that he then is still agreeing with the case and voting me, so where is the undercut I'm supposed to town read him for?
He cuts off the conversation because it's "muddying the waters and distracting town"
That's not someone trying to understand me or show me something.

Here's another
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10139355
He says I'm flailing, that I yelled at him, that this makes me scum (for reasons...?)
I point out that I didn't do any of those things and ask for a quote showing where I did.
He comes back with the "can't respond, Thor is just good at debate" claim and ducks the question.

I guess I am pretty brilliant at debate when you make up stuff and I ask you why you believe it...? How clever and word twisting of me?

It's an entire ISO like that.
Saying lots without saying anything.

If Meji implicates me, why are you lynching me before Meji exactly? Am I scum if Meji isn't?

You being town would erase that implication that also implicates themselves if you are scum
If you are scum then we can catch every possible partner via power roles and lynch.
If Meji is scum and we lynch them tomorrow we have a much smaller pool of suspects if you are town.
If you and Meji are town we lose anyways..., unless, of course either me or teacher catch scum tonight. Especially if I catch scum.

@Elephant yeah please don't hammer asap, that was an overreaction.

I'll agree that lynching people gives you a smaller pool.
What I'm asking is what is this super strong Thor/Meji connection exactly? All you have is that I didn't vote him when I was on a wagon of someone else that was larger and indicated I would only move if the Meji wagon got larger, and that she hasn't voted me (even though she hasn't really been around to vote me).
That's pretty much it.
That's super thin, and is *not* a good reason to lynch either of us.

What is the actual case that either of us is scum that isn't about us not voting each other?
I submit there isn't one on me, and only a very minor one on Meji. I'm fine with that, but you need to be aware of it to make accurate value calls in game and not overreact.

[Thor665]

@thor if you're town, please give me your thoughts on a world where I am also town

echoed. If you’re town and with intent out there please lay out your best assessment. (Leave out oxy also town for me).

I've already done one without a presumed Oxy town.
I asked you to lynch Oxy.

[teacher]

If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.

Am I mistaken, or does Thor AGREES with the associative case on him. Flipping town!thor clears Meji (as its not in the OXY or ME partner pool). Thus, tomorrow town starts with two lock- or likely- towns in the (NK, Meji, me) pool even if it is a mislynch. Even if Im misreading, this is again Thor trying not to get people to vote Meji......

I town Elephant far more than Oxy. . . . . . .

In post 632, teacher wrote:
Oxy tried to build a counterwagon on Meji, while Elephant didnt

This is an associative tell, and thus really weak until we get at least one scum flip.
I'll agree that if Meji or Elephant flips scum this becomes a potentially telling issue.
Why should it be an issue now? . . . . .

I massively disagree with the associative case making Elephant more scummy

@Thor, thanks for providing your game analysis as town@Thor. I have one question left, about the above quotes. Why do you town Elephant more than Oxy

when Oxy tried to stop the James Wagon

? This is not an associational or comparative claim from me, but direct to Oxy's conduct standing alone. I dont see that conduct from a scum on a mislynch wagon, even if it is to a different mislynch wagon (which I doubt).

[Thor665]

Why do you town Elephant more than Oxy when Oxy tried to stop the James Wagon?

Because reads can exist from more than small singular moments.

This is not an associational or comparative claim from me, but direct to Oxy's conduct standing alone. I dont see that conduct from a scum on a mislynch wagon, even if it is to a different mislynch wagon (which I doubt).

I disagree.

[teacher]

Because reads can exist from more than small singular moments.

OK, then what about Elephant D2 AT THE TIME YOU SHIFTED TO OXY was far more townie than Oxy's attempt to change wagons? Because at end of D1 you said you were null on Elephant (and Oxy). Or did you lie in response to my question end of D1 when you claimed they were both null? This isnt adding up.

[Meji Fan]

Or Meji likes someone else better than Meji likes Thor and thinks the Thor case is very Mathemagical

[Thor665]

Because reads can exist from more than small singular moments.

OK, then what about Elephant D2 AT THE TIME YOU SHIFTED TO OXY was far more townie than Oxy's attempt to change wagons? Because at end of D1 you said you were null on Elephant (and Oxy). Or did you lie in response to my question end of D1 when you claimed they were both null? This isnt adding up.

Considering the likelihood of my lynch, and my reads, this conversation is immensely boring and not worth the time walking you through how reads work.

[Thor665]

I mean, if you think I lied when i called them both null then why does your case for me being scum flip nuggets when i reverse my amazing Oxy town read to voting Oxy?
*That* doesn't make sense.

[teacher]

not worth the time walking you through how reads work.

Youre fulfilling the IC as tutor role well.....Seriously, this is my first game here. Its different than where I played before, so Im playing all Level One Derp. Id like to learn. Youre right that you probably arent convincing me to go elsewhere today, but you will help make me a better player for future games. Im asking you to explain why you read Oxy and Elephant so differerntly in D2 - D1 you were null on both, and then Oxy tried to change wagons. D2 they have different activity levels, but similar foci (Meji/you). What is the cause for the strong difference?

PEDIT: Until you went to voting Oxy, you had kept Oxy and Elephant together (both null D1, both town before my claim). Im trying to see why they are now so different - I dont see any major difference at all (they both have the same lynch pools), other than Oxy trying to stop a wagon.

[Thor665]

What part of how I read wagons, which I've explained at length, and to multiple players, is still confusing to you?
Literally they were asking me the same thing.

[Not Known 15]

Or Meji likes someone else better than Meji likes Thor and thinks the Thor case is very Mathemagical

Meji, you are lurking and not following the discussion well. This is not just about math.
Stop lurking.

[Oxy]

If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.

Thanks, mate. I promise I'll really dig into this if you flip green.

[Meji Fan]

The whole thing on Thor started with the math exercises

[Thor665]

If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.

Thanks, mate. I promise I'll really dig into this if you flip green.

As long as it's deeper than your analysis of me I'll get excited.