Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

Started at 770, posting then getting back to reading.

Bizarrely your response 770 to my Nauci case 468 makes me feel worse about you.

1. You say it is "factually incorrect" that Nauci "tries to build a scum case from their lurking." Look at the post I linked -- 65. Nauci read TGP/NK (jailkeeper) as scum from "straight lack of content bias" and because "HE did that in a game" where he was scum. That is a scum case from lurking - factually correct.

2. "Vanity wagon" is a phrase you must have heard as an SE. It is a one vote wagon that will not gain traction to a lynch. Moreover, suggesting I am scumming someone for voting me shows a stunning lack of appreciation for the game. I cannot have said more times that I get why I am suspect, and didnt blame people for voting me. I blame Nauci for staying there even in the late day when it is clear I could not be a consensus.

3. Again, you say it is "factually incorrect" that Nauci "provid[ed] intent to L-1 but doesnt". But 227 says "consider this intent to -1". But after four hours in which she could confirm the VC, she does not 236 and instead disappears. Again, factually accurate.

4. I did cite my own post, because it explained the misrep.

5. There is a reason this was fifth on my list, and described with the word "possible." I dont see it as a strong tell, but also dont think by this point (post 96) Nauci was falling behind at all.

6. I don't think point 6 is absurd. Hell, Nauci didnt. To quote DDS from early game, sick Nauci used the game as a "crutch." For sick Nauci not to do so is inconsistent from who she had portrayed herself to be. FWIW, I am even more leery of your slot for this sort of semi-outside game reason now. I find it hard to believe someone who was on serious painkillers and in heavy withdrawal would return to work totally slammed -- I would expect most workplaces to be somewhat accommodating of a sickness as severe as Nauci portrayed. I still dont put much weight on it, but dont think its absurd to read this way.

******

To respond to 771, I see two issues.
Compare this:

Trying to coordinate on lynches, though is a good thing.

With this:

I will not do a read list. It's not useful for me, and I don't feel it is ever useful for anyone else to read them. I will not budge on this ever again.

So we shouldnt expect analysis? Why is a readslist not useful to anyone else? I find them useful.
Compare this:

Sheeping is distinctly negative utility for town.

With this:

Trying to coordinate on lynches, though is a good thing.

And consider the background strategy. Forming a town block negates the inherent block mafia can have, and can provide tells if you move the block around during the day for wagon analysis. I will try to dig up a strategy article from back in the day when I used to play more, but at least then, building a block was a big strategic bonus.

[brassherald]

PEdit2 @ brassherald: Can you post a quick read list/lynch pool/general impressions cloud?

PEdit3 @ brassherald: Why don't you think read lists are useful?

I'm going to flip these. Read lists are not useful because all they are is a list. I prefer to actually analyze and give my thoughts rather than just "X is scum" I'll provide reads with some reasoning, but a formal read list is not my style. Plus, I see no point in listing nulls, if I have nothing to say on a slot (usually on Day 1 or earlier Day 2) they're null.

I'll do a lynch pool for now, then a full thoughts after I get home from work tonight. Lynch pool is Meji for the Information and no analysis approach, and Flicker for the fact that you have been totally reactive at this point and as I explained, acted with negative town utility day 1.

We do not get another mislynch keep in mind, so, I would suggest you take your time in reasoning and voting today, as I will be.

[brassherald]

Okay, teacher let me explain this again, because you clearly didn't read my explanation on that L-1. Nauci asked for a Votecount, 4 hours later, there was still no votecount.

How are you not getting this?

[Oxy]

but how do you feel about teacher at this point? seemed like you wanted thor dead because of teacher, but post-flip I'm curious your feelings

It was a really good crumb. I still have to go back to make sure he didn't crumb anyone else as well, of course.

That said, It hurts my brain to believe that NK jailed teacher.

Teacher didn't really factor into my scum read on Thor.

I agreed with a very specific thing: In a world where both the night kill and the JK target were chosen randomly, it was roughly 20% more likely that the JK chose the scum performing the night kill than the JK choosing the target of the night kill.

My scum read on Thor was based on his vote parking of James, his aggressive and (seemingly) disingenuous defense of his James read, and the arguments he made during D2. I can go into detail if you want, but it's kind of moot.

Back to teacher:
The way he claimed was weird. I don't know if town or scum is more likely to do that whole, "Case incoming! -> Oops, I accidentally outed myself (He hadn't, in my mind)" but I'm thinking about it.

If his claim is true, then we know that 3/4 night actions were targeted at Thor N1 (lol) - This is not meant to say that isn't possible. It absolutely is.

**We also know that Thor was targeted as the night kill on N1. Someone should compile Thor's D1 reads**

[brassherald]

1. You say it is "factually incorrect" that Nauci "tries to build a scum case from their lurking." Look at the post I linked -- 65. Nauci read TGP/NK (jailkeeper) as scum from "straight lack of content bias" and because "HE did that in a game" where he was scum. That is a scum case from lurking - factually correct.

Okay, one vote where she checked a game and posts her read on meta. Wow, you really cracked the case there!

2. "Vanity wagon" is a phrase you must have heard as an SE. It is a one vote wagon that will not gain traction to a lynch. Moreover, suggesting I am scumming someone for voting me shows a stunning lack of appreciation for the game. I cannot have said more times that I get why I am suspect, and didnt blame people for voting me. I blame Nauci for staying there even in the late day when it is clear I could not be a consensus.

Never heard this phrase before, stop trying to shade me for not knowing your phrase.

To respond to 771, I see two issues.
Compare this:

Trying to coordinate on lynches, though is a good thing.

With this:

I will not do a read list. It's not useful for me, and I don't feel it is ever useful for anyone else to read them. I will not budge on this ever again.

So we shouldnt expect analysis? Why is a readslist not useful to anyone else? I find them useful.
Compare this:

Sheeping is distinctly negative utility for town.

With this:

Trying to coordinate on lynches, though is a good thing.

And consider the background strategy. Forming a town block negates the inherent block mafia can have, and can provide tells if you move the block around during the day for wagon analysis. I will try to dig up a strategy article from back in the day when I used to play more, but at least then, building a block was a big strategic bonus.

You try to coordinate on lynches by lining up reads, not by sheeping other people. This is a game where you need to do the thinking, you don't get to pass it off on someone else by sheeping them. Your townreads can be wrong. You can be wrong as town, but sheeping is a great way to pass off blame.

[Oxy]

I would expect most workplaces to be somewhat accommodating of a sickness as severe as Nauci portrayed.

Do you live in the US?

Jokes aside, I'm not sure this is a fantastic way of analyzing the slot from either of you.

[teacher]

PEDIT - Again, started only at 777.

@Brass -- you have two people telling you your reads would be helpful. Having seen 776, Im fine (and in fact prefer) them to have an analysis. But I am not ok with just having a two person analysis. All slots are potential scum. While I know you are posting your scummiest, I want to know both why they are, and

why the others arent

. Please analyze all positions is the ask.

@Oxy - I prefer lynch today. Yes, its MYLO, but not lynching makes next two days LYLO. Id rather base it off reads from today and have room to sit on one lesser accepted scum tomorrow. I dont think the night kill (who I view as definitely me given role) tells the board anything we dont already learn today. But we can revisit this later in the day.

@Flicker - my response to Oxy notwithstanding, I will pull the vote for now. I do think lynch today is the right move.

@Elephant -I tracked Flicker in part because of the hammer, but also because of my previous indication that she was then my next scummiest if Thor flipped town -- the list on top of 586. The town seemed suspicious of her, and I thought that worth digging into.

@Board - In my view scum includes Brass's slot in almost any team I am not sure whether Meji or Flicker/Oxy is the more likely partner. Going into today, in part due to Thor's shade, I tunneled Oxy overnight. I can very easily see a Nauci(Brass)-Oxy team. But I see fewer other possible teammates, and less of a case. I would be opposed to lynching Oxy today. Im also opposed to Elephant - tbh, nothing confirms him, but if he is scum, we have all lost.

[teacher]

Im offline for a bit, and possibly the night. Look forward to reading when I catch up.

VOTE: unvote

[Oxy]

@Oxy - I prefer lynch today. Yes, its MYLO, but not lynching makes next two days LYLO. Id rather base it off reads from today and have room to sit on one lesser accepted scum tomorrow. I dont think the night kill (who I view as definitely me given role) tells the board anything we dont already learn today. But we can revisit this later in the day.

There is a 0% chance that you get killed today if we sleep.

You should search around these forums, or maybe the wiki. Somewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

[teacher]

By the way, Im on mobile now, but my two side by side quotes from 771 were screwed up. Brass's response captured the idea, though, as long as they post an analysis of positions.

[brassherald]

I am not saying I won't post reads, I will not post read lists. Those are different things.

Also, if we decide to no lynch, then we should not be sharing reads so as to not give guidance to scum as to who to kill tonight to make LYLO easier for them Day 4.

[brassherald]

I've already posted enough that I feel a no lynch is actually inferior to a lynch.

[teacher]

@Oxy - I’ll poke around for an article but would appreciate pointers too. It is counter to my own intuition. My thought is that I (as tracker) will die tonight regardless of actions today and my death provides almost no information we don’t have now (you would learn I’m town, but I don’t think my slot affects many others, especially as my only hard associatives are Meji and elephant).

Under your plan, we share reads, discuss merits but don’t lynch. This makes no sense - scum gets to both learn their relative position AND kill town. They won’t kill anyone except me given the risk of tracking. Brass points out the error here.

Under the plan of passing the day in silence, no information is advanced, and we go from mylo to lylo in essentially the same place as now.

Thus based only on subway thoughts I think we lynch. A 14 day phase is long enough for all players to post analyses and build a consensus. And it allows for sitting on our hands D4 when the possibility of a lesser suspected scum is higher. I’d rather go down swinging than silent. But again, as long as everyone keeps talking I’m fine pushing the lynch/nolynch call until much later.

Finally, while I town him too, elephant isn’t lock. Everybody should be analyzing associations across the board. The best thing we know for sure right now is that there must be two scum.

[Flicker]

pedit: oh good Flicker has arrived, I want more from you about potential Oxy scum, gotta go bye

It's mostly his read on me (which, again, helps no one else, and also town players can have wrong reads) and his shift on Thor D2. On D1, he says Thor's being pushed for silly reasons (post #164); on D2, he pushes Thor on (in hindsight) somewhat silly reasons. Also, he accused me of bussing Meji, but could that be a cover for him actually bussing Meji, on both days? And then when it looks like Meji could actually get lynched D2, he jumps off (and back) to Thor?

I don't know; it's not a strong read. Honestly, I just don't feel he's town enough to take him

out

of the suspect pool.

**We also know that Thor was targeted as the night kill on N1. Someone should compile Thor's D1 reads**

Going through his ISO, I think Thor's only D1 reads were scum James and Meji (or, at least, would lynch per post #238) - everyone else was null. Other than saying "if I haven't expressed a read, it's null," (post #242) he did specifically mention he had a null read on teacher (post #125).

[brassherald]

So, here are my thoughts.

Oxy- He's been pretty townie overall, I especially liked 190 and 256, I'm sure there are more that I like, but these are just examples of where he's been a voice of reason most of the game. He's been giving good theory, and analyzing. And especially, calling people out. Really the only blip on the radar, to me, was his reaction to being called a possible scum by Thor, but in the grand scheme of things, it's a small part of this game and town react to things poorly all the time, I don't see scum motivation in his post specifically.

Irrelephant11 - It feels like he's been playing very safe and guarded, which is not a great thing. For example, 346 looks long but just doesn't . I sometimes have a hard time differentiating between new to the forum play and scum play. I'd like to have some direct discussion with him, and discuss why he's such a high town read with everyone in the game, though.

Flicker is full of weird voting patterns, in general, 81 is where it first shows up. I'm confused why she thinks people were going to follow her when she hadn't made any case by then, so she just votes to teacher with no read. Then, she acknowledges in 120 (Which seems designed to look busy, by the way) that she's more interested in this teacher push than the James push she just complained about no one following neither of the reads seems genuine to me there, either. 193 has a full read list with one scum read, which she proceeds to not vote, then almost 60 posts later at 250 she finally votes her one scum read, citing wanting to have a reason for James' scum read on her, rather than citing her own scum read on James. Unvotes James right before the deadline despite displaying knowledge of compromise lynches. Then, Day 2 is just as bad, with her convictionless push on Meji.

teacher is the un-CCed tracker claim, I will not even consider lynching an Un-CCed PR claim when we know we have to have either a Tracker or a Doctor out there, based on there being a Jailkeeper.

Meji Fan is not even worth linking posts on, because you can read the ISO so quickly. There is no analysis in any of the posts even the longer posts are just lists of what happened and when it happened. Also, side note, it's weird for town or scum to have made one vote the entire game by the beginning of day 3.

[Oxy]

@brassherald Are you fully caught up?

[Oxy]

Actually, it looks like you are caught up enough for this based on your other comments.

teacher is the un-CCed tracker claim, I will not even consider lynching an Un-CCed PR claim when we know we have to have either a Tracker or a Doctor out there, based on there being a Jailkeeper.

Guys, I don't know what to do with this.

1) Brassherald has played numerous newbie games with this setup chart
2) In those games he has been scum, VT, and PR
3) None of those games that I found used column 3

Possible conclusions:
1) Townslip - Brassherald has played all of these games without really looking at the setup, and never realized that town could have less than 2 PR because he hasn't personally experienced it.
2) Scumslip - Brassherald knew full well what was wrong with his statement and posted in a conscious attempt to get a dumb-tell town read on him.
3) Brassherald had a brain fart.

I'm leaning towards three, but I wanted ya'll to take a look.

[brassherald]

I just checked the setup chart. I forgot that Jailkeeper could be in there with just 1 PR. I was thinking of Neopolitan that is never by itself.

[Meji Fan]

For all NK kept saying he love loved teacher and we should follow teacher's lead . . . . he jailkept teacher?

Im not terribly to fond of that idea

Im still not terribly enamored of Nauci/brassherald as town, but teacher's fondness for them makes me a bit less fond

I've no problem with the idea we should have a lynch today

brassherald/teacher are likely my two favorite, as I thought they were my most favorite and there contributions yesterday have not exactly changed my view

Except now teacher is voting brassherald, that isn't what I'd expect

If town reaches tomorrow I certainly agree teacher will be here, though I think going after teacher today may be our best of town reaching tomorrow

Anyway teacher, I am curious what awesome stuff the Thor flip turned up, that was one reason you liked Thor. I've read through all your Day 3 posts twice and don't see to much regarding that

Hello brassherald

[Oxy]

I'm going to make one more pitch for a No lynch.

Right now, fmpov, there are no confirmed towns.

I have reads, and I am confident that Elephant is town, but Elephant is not confirmed.

Thus, no lynching will give us information. No matter what the kill is, it increases every town's chances of finding scum.

Additionally, assuming no busing (and why should they bus?), we need 4 town to come together for a lynch. Tomorrow we will only need 3. That's one less cat to herd.

[Oxy]

Additionally, teacher might be real, and he might get a red check.

That would give town a 50/50 choice. This might not be greater than the chance of any individual town finding scum at lylo, but it's greater than the % chance that town will find a scum lynch at lylo

And it's certainly greater than our chance to find a lynch today.

[Oxy]

Tracking is going to be interesting

if he flips town

. For example, I cant decide if NK is likely to go to the deep or shallow end of the PoE pool. Looking at associatives makes (Nauci Elephant Flicker) the richest. I wonder if I should go there, or assume NK will. Conversely, going off scummiest, the richest is (Meji, Nauci, Flicker). Knowing both those facts though makes Oxy tempting. Enough for now....I dont think there is much to be gained from this exercise. Really hoping this is a scum flip!

Good luck everyone tonight.

I'm going to flip town.

I doubt that.

But if its true...
again, my plan.... when I die pressure the low posters Nauci, Flicker, Meji. Pressure Oxy for Thor's case.
Follow teacher's leads.

You two, and I know for a fact one of you is town, ARE TUNNELED BLIND.
Holy cow.
Get out of the tunnel and communicate with people functionally - especially in twilight.

@NK - Teahcer's plans and reads have been TERRIBLE stop advising everyone to "trust" him.
He's not confirmed, and his reads haven't shown quality, so what are they supposed to trust him on exactly?

This pains my soul, get used to being wrong, it happens all the time in Mafia, the important thing is not to double down on wrong.

This does not convince me at all to change my plan.

It seems like we have just different reads on everybody. And I trust mine more because of your "min 1 scum in wagon" deathtunneling.

Okay, nevermind. Teacher is scum.

NK doesn't leave this as his last post and then jail teacher.

[Oxy]

For all NK kept saying he love loved teacher and we should follow teacher's lead . . . . he jailkept teacher?

Meji lock town

[Oxy]

Elephant also lock town - teacher isn't sheeping his partner

[Oxy]

2 scum in {Flicker, teacher, Brassherald}

My guess: {Flicker, teacher}