Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Oxy]

VOTE: teacher

[teacher]

@Meji - Thor's death removed you from the lynch pool for today. Youre pretty much conf town. That was the upside that lynching you didnt offer.

@Meji/Oxy - Think about it. How likely is it I would make up a story about being jailkept (a "zero result" rather than "stayed home") if I were scum GIVEN BOTH (a) we are in MYLO, so a red check could make scum!me win, and (b) what NK was saying. That said, I think NK's "plan" might suggest his actions. He was trying to sell his trust in me so that scum team would definitely use me to carry out action. And the first time he said it, he said "if . . . I die, follow teacher" -- indicating he thought his JK might stop the kill.

My lynch pool for today is (Brass, Flicker, Oxy).

[teacher]

SOMETHING VERY STRANGE JUST HAPPENED.

Flicker is an ideal track target, and the crumbing during twilight is a lot more legitimate than it would have been D3. +town points

It was a really good crumb. I still have to go back to make sure he didn't crumb anyone else as well, of course.

omewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

I'm going to make one more pitch for a No lynch.

VOTE: teacher

I am now basically convinced of a Brass-Oxy team. I still think Brass makes the most sense to lynch. But I put my pool up there. I think we have at least the same 50% chance of hitting scum within it that we would have tomorrow.

[Irrelephant11]

Wow okay to start

@Meji/Oxy - Think about it. How likely is it I would make up a story about being jailkept (a "zero result" rather than "stayed home") if I were scum GIVEN BOTH (a) we are in MYLO, so a red check could make scum!me win, and (b) what NK was saying. That said, I think NK's "plan" might suggest his actions. He was trying to sell his trust in me so that scum team would definitely use me to carry out action. And the first time he said it, he said "if . . . I die, follow teacher" -- indicating he thought his JK might stop the kill.

A is twisting the truth. A false red check from scum you would make a scum win less likely, not more. 1v1 narrows down the options to a 50/50 shot, which is better than our current 33% shot.

I've been thinking a lot about potential scum teacher, and I think his crumbing makes sense as a mafia who always expected to make a claim, knowing that it's column 3 and there's a 2/3 shot that there's an open PR spot to claim. If he had decided to give us something other than the Flicker miss, he could have just not brought up his D2 crumbing and I know I wouldn't have ever noticed it.

NK15 scum reading teacher isn't completely impossible, though - teacher pushed thor's lynch, and thor's flip moves teacher toward scum possibilities. Except that this is more of a reason to scumread teacher, and less of a reason to expect NK15 would jail him especially given 700 in which NK15 literally says

"If Thor is town... Follow Teacher and their leads"

I'm not ready to vote because scum an quickhammer anyone with two votes but this

FoS on teacher

is more like Both Hands of Suspicion

teacher there is a world where you're town but there's not a world where you're town and Oxy is scum in my mind (yes I am suggesting that Oxy's only possible scum partner from my POV is teacher). If anyone wants me voting Oxy make a v strong case.

[Irrelephant11]

pedit: oh good Flicker has arrived, I want more from you about potential Oxy scum, gotta go bye

It's mostly his read on me (which, again, helps no one else, and also town players can have wrong reads) and his shift on Thor D2. On D1, he says Thor's being pushed for silly reasons (post #164); on D2, he pushes Thor on (in hindsight) somewhat silly reasons. Also, he accused me of bussing Meji, but could that be a cover for him actually bussing Meji, on both days? And then when it looks like Meji could actually get lynched D2, he jumps off (and back) to Thor?

I don't know; it's not a strong read. Honestly, I just don't feel he's town enough to take him

out

of the suspect pool.

Feeling bad about this. As the first person to throw suspicion Oxy's way I was excited to hear your case - I don't think scum makes a case on someone who isn't an easy mislynch, it seems much more likely to come from genuine town- but you're basically backing off the first chance you get. Seems more like you were hoping for someone else to get behind this and are disappointed to realize your mislynch options are being narrowed by town

[teacher]

So, given the need to coordinate town, I would ordinarily try to persuade Oxy and Elephant with honey. But I just cant do it. Because OMG this is quite possibly the stupidest thing this game (and thats saying a lot coming from me).

1. Think about NK's statement in twilight -- WHEN I DIE, follow teacher. He thought he was confirming town or IDing scum by JK me. And he is right. Any scum team in the world with me on it has me carry out the night action, since NK had seemingly committed to JK elsewhere. The fact that NK was killed confirms I am not scum.

2. Think about my claim of being jailkept. First of all, I disagree with elephant's red-check argument. I am pretty damn sure if I had redchecked Flicker or Brass it would have gone through given the board suspicions to that point. But regardless, why would scum!me -- who must be brilliant to have made the claim so far -- make the bizarre and suspicious claim of being JK, when I could just have easily given Flicker a nullcheck while building towncred by pointing the crumbs.

@Elephant: you like simple questions. So I will ask a simple one. Why not Oxy-Brass? (note Im not pushing you to vote Oxy. But I dont see why they cant be a team).

[Irrelephant11]

3: lol not sure how I got a "simple question" rep this game, but sure - honestly, I don't ever ever ever see Nauci's swearing pushing DDS out of the game if they're the team. It would have to be a bizarre play where DDS asked for a replacement as a ploy, which I think might be against the rules? Replacing can't be playing to DDS's wincon (can't win a game you're not playing), even if it plays to Nauci's wincon - therefore, against the rules as a a trick, and nearly impossible as anything else.

2: You were pressured into revealing your read before you had planned on it. I'm not totally sold you're scum, but this argument doesn't do much for me.

1: This is also not helping. It's starting to look like you're intentionally leaving out part of NK15's statement - "follow teacher

and his reads

".

Tell me more about Oxy scum, which is almost completely new coming from you. Also make a case on brass that doesn't include Nauci's pattern of being missing. Rereading Nauci as simply incapable of playing sometimes really sucks a lot of scumminess out of the read for me.

[Oxy]

@Meji/Oxy - Think about it. How likely is it I would make up a story about being jailkept (a "zero result" rather than "stayed home") if I were scum GIVEN BOTH (a) we are in MYLO, so a red check could make scum!me win, and (b) what NK was saying. That said, I think NK's "plan" might suggest his actions. He was trying to sell his trust in me so that scum team would definitely use me to carry out action. And the first time he said it, he said "if . . . I die, follow teacher" -- indicating he thought his JK might stop the kill.

A) A red check actually makes scum!teacher less likely to win - at that point we're flipping a coin for the lynch.

B) The way I see it, we know two things. 1) NK twice supported the idea of teacher town, and for town to follow him in his very last post. 2) Jailing tracker!teacher means that we don't get a result from him.

Teacher is trying to make the case for it all being a mind game, and for how NK was seeing the chess board 8 moves ahead.

I think this is a situation for Occam's razor - the less assumptions you have to make, the more likely it is to be true.

[Oxy]

SOMETHING VERY STRANGE JUST HAPPENED.

Flicker is an ideal track target, and the crumbing during twilight is a lot more legitimate than it would have been D3. +town points

It was a really good crumb. I still have to go back to make sure he didn't crumb anyone else as well, of course.

omewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

I'm going to make one more pitch for a No lynch.

VOTE: teacher

I am now basically convinced of a Brass-Oxy team. I still think Brass makes the most sense to lynch. But I put my pool up there. I think we have at least the same 50% chance of hitting scum within it that we would have tomorrow.

Yeah, teacher has outlined my master plan of going one direction and then immediately reversing course. Definitely didn't happen because I had just read Meji Fan solve the game, or anything.

[Oxy]

So, given the need to coordinate town, I would ordinarily try to persuade Oxy and Elephant with honey. But I just cant do it. Because OMG this is quite possibly the stupidest thing this game (and thats saying a lot coming from me).

1. Think about NK's statement in twilight -- WHEN I DIE, follow teacher. He thought he was confirming town or IDing scum by JK me. And he is right. Any scum team in the world with me on it has me carry out the night action, since NK had seemingly committed to JK elsewhere. The fact that NK was killed confirms I am not scum.

2. Think about my claim of being jailkept. First of all, I disagree with elephant's red-check argument. I am pretty damn sure if I had redchecked Flicker or Brass it would have gone through given the board suspicions to that point. But regardless, why would scum!me -- who must be brilliant to have made the claim so far -- make the bizarre and suspicious claim of being JK, when I could just have easily given Flicker a nullcheck while building towncred by pointing the crumbs.

@Elephant: you like simple questions. So I will ask a simple one. Why not Oxy-Brass? (note Im not pushing you to vote Oxy. But I dont see why they cant be a team).

1) Even if we KNEW that NK checked teacher, it still would NOT confirm teacher. It WOULD prevent us from getting a check from him.

2) JK'd is simply the least information result - So was tracking the JK'd VT, Thor. I SEE A PATTERN!

Also, great job @elephant for showing why DDS + Nauci never made sense as a scum team in any world. Good try, teacher.

[teacher]

By the way, though, given the state of play I do think I survive the night regardless of lynch/nolynch today.

If I catch a scum, they still can 50/50 me and argue "why didnt teacher die" -- a good position when at least one town and likely 2 (meji/Oxy/Elephant) is already sussing me.

PEDIT: re:806:

don't ever ever ever see Nauci's swearing pushing DDS out of the game if they're the team.

interesting point re Nauci(Brass)-DDS(Oxy) that I had not considered. Thank you for that, and Im inclined to agree.

You were pressured into revealing your read before you had planned on

True that I didnt plan to reveal and was pressured. But...

• That still doesnt undercut why I think NK has confirmed me. The key question is: Wouldnt any scum team have me carry out the night action? I think the answer has to be yes, with NK basically promising ("and his reads") not to JK me.
• Also, pressure doesnt explain why scum!me claimed JK rather than null (or scum). I truly dont see an advantage for scum!me to claim JK in this situation -- it doesnt advance scum!me's wincon at all because it doesnt redcheck someone, and it casts suspicion on me more than a pretend nullcheck would.

Bottom line, if you can explain how a JailKept claim helps scum!me in any way, Id understand your FoS. But I simply do not see how it does. TBH, playing a hypothetical non-tracker me out in this situation, I dont think I could have dreamt up a JailKeep claim because it seemed so contrary to NK's twilight plan. I only realized NK's true motivations once I got the 'zero result' PM.

Finally, on these two:

Tell me more about Oxy scum

make a case on brass that doesn't include Nauci's pattern of being missing

I need to think on this more, in light of your point about Nauci-DDS. I had been heavily suss'ing an Oxy-Nauci(Brass) team, including through their play in D3. IF they cant be the team, that would effectively town Oxy, because I cant see Oxy-Flicker or Oxy-Meji either, so alll that is left for me is Oxy-Elephant, and I just cant there from here. I think Im left with: Scum are (Brass-Flicker), but I want to go back through the game before I commit to that, and dont have the time now.

[Oxy]

The problem with teacher's theory is as follows:

Put yourself in NK's shoes. You know with almost 100% confidence that you will be killed in the night, unless you can jail the person performing the kill.

You know that if you die, town will read your final posts to surmise your actions.

Do you,
a) all but say that you won't be jailing teacher, and then jail him anyway - wifoming the shit out of town, and potentially blocking the tracker from getting a result?
b) not do that?

[teacher]

Re Oxy's 807-809:

For those sussing me, answer this: WHO is my teammate?

• Can't be elephant, according to Oxy -- why would i make such a strong association so early?
  
• Shouldn't be Brass -- why would I be pushing them today?
  
• Shouldnt be Meji -- why would I have left the choice between Thor and Meji up to NK after acknowledging the case was weaker on a 1v1 basis?
  
• Can't be Oxy -- he's the one pushing me now.

That leaves Flicker. I scum him so am interested in the case on her associations (with me AND with others on the board).

The one thing I will say is that town has legitimate reason to sus or lynch me. Im the only spot on the board that is truly 50/50 given my claim. But I know lynching me loses the game for town. So I view those trying to get me the hardest as scums trying to lead a mislynch with an acceptable case.

[teacher]

The problem with teacher's theory is as follows:

Put yourself in NK's shoes. You know with almost 100% confidence that you will be killed in the night, unless you can jail the person performing the kill.

You know that if you die, town will read your final posts to surmise your actions.

Do you,
a) all but say that you won't be jailing teacher, and then jail him anyway - wifoming the shit out of town, and potentially blocking the tracker from getting a result?
b) not do that?

The problem with this argument is that it doesnt WIFOM town. It tells them what to do -- follow me -- if he dies. It says his action (JK me) confirms me as town if he dies. I didnt see this until I got my result, but how does this not make sense.

NK has the same 50/50 chance on me that you all do. He took it, and lost (died). Do you all want to take the same chance and lose too? How does scumteam with me not have me take the night action?

[Irrelephant11]

Re Oxy's 807-809:

For those sussing me, answer this: WHO is my teammate?

• Can't be elephant, according to Oxy -- why would i make such a strong association so early?
  
• Shouldn't be Brass -- why would I be pushing them today?
  
• Shouldnt be Meji -- why would I have left the choice between Thor and Meji up to NK after acknowledging the case was weaker on a 1v1 basis?
  
• Can't be Oxy -- he's the one pushing me now.

That leaves Flicker. I scum him so am interested in the case on her associations (with me AND with others on the board).

The one thing I will say is that town has legitimate reason to sus or lynch me. Im the only spot on the board that is truly 50/50 given my claim. But I know lynching me loses the game for town. So I view those trying to get me the hardest as scums trying to lead a mislynch with an acceptable case.

lol at this. "I view those trying to get me the hardest as scums trying to lead a mislynch with an acceptable case." can only mean me and Oxy, who you just said are most likely town like two posts ago

Also both of these
"Shouldn't be Brass -- why would I be pushing them today?
Shouldnt be Meji -- why would I have left the choice between Thor and Meji up to NK after acknowledging the case was weaker on a 1v1 basis?" are WIFOMy as all get out.

Also you rpartner could very well could be Flicker and pointing out that you suspect them is just saying "scummy player is scummy" which a mafioso can do.

I need the other half of the game to chime in, we're going in circles here.

pedit: sure, scum team might have the townier player (e.g you in this case) do the kill. Or maybe after thor's flip you knew you weren't the townier player any more. Also probably it's a coin flip who should make the kill when you've got a fake claim going

[teacher]

I dont have any case on anyone after you blew my (Brass-Oxy) out of the water. I am simply responding (perhaps too fast) to your case. Bottom line question: Why do I claim JK rather than null (or check) if I am not tracker?

[Oxy]

JK is the least information you can give.

[teacher]

No, a null accomplishes the same exact information without casting doubt on me.

[Oxy]

It's not much more info, but null says they didn't do the night kill

[teacher]

OK, but the question is why does why do I (in general) claim JK, it is why does scum!me claim JK. As you all show, its a claim that invites suspicion of my slot more so than a null-check. If I were not tracker, there is no way I dream up the claim given NK's final words. The only way I claim it is with my night track "zero results," and then after the fact see how it makes sense with NK's final words.

[Oxy]

Did you think it was going to make you suspicious tho? We'll never know.

[Irrelephant11]

and then after the fact see how it makes sense with NK's final words.

This is possibly my biggest scummy thing about you rn. You seem unwilling to admit that, if JK15 did indeed jail you, it

does not align with his words

. You keep trying to twist his "follow teacher" into something it will never mean, which is a scummy move to me. I would be more likely to believe you had you said "I know, it makes no sense, it's not what he said at all, but maybe he thought I was scum after the flip." NK15's words simply

do not mean

to suspect you.

[teacher]

You seem unwilling to admit that, if JK15 did indeed jail you, it does not align with his words.

I agree I dont admit that, because I do think it aligns.

But if its true...
again, my plan.... when I die pressure the low posters Nauci, Flicker, Meji. Pressure Oxy for Thor's case.
Follow teacher's leads.

I think his words say two things, on two levels.

The first level, where I was before my results, say that he trusts me, and so wont JK me. Which makes scum!me the one to carry out the night action on any team (except, arguably, with Elephant whom he omits from this list).

The second level, where i was after my results, assumes the first level AND NK's death. It says -- Follow teacher tomorrow because he is confirmed town. If he hadn't been town, I would have died.

Thus I think NK's actions align with his words. The use of "teacher's leads" rather than "teacher" was to further mask the two levels of the statement, and so further encourage Scum!me to carry out the night kill. In short, I think NK's words are perfectly consistent with his actions.

You dont, fair enough, we can certainly interpret things differently. But really, how likely is it that (A) scum!me is not assigned the night actions? In other words, explain this

in light of your interpretation of NK that he would NOT jailkeep me.

Also probably it's a coin flip who should make the kill when you've got a fake claim going

How is this a coinflip under your interpretation of NK?

[Oxy]

You dont, fair enough, we can certainly interpret things differently. But really, how likely is it that (A) scum!me is not assigned the night actions? In other words, explain this in light of your interpretation of NK that he would NOT jailkeep me.

1) wifom
2) Maybe you guys didn't read NK's comments too carefully, or maybe you misread them
3) Maybe you really did think he was talking on two levels and planning on jailing you
4) Maybe you got stuck on a desert island for the night phase and couldn't put in the kill
5)Maybe you flipped a coin to see who would do the kill.
6) Maybe something completely different.

[teacher]

Did you think it was going to make you suspicious tho? We'll never know.

I will answer. No. I didnt. At all. As I said in my post announcing it, I thought it semi-confirmed me.

BUT, scum!me would have played it out. I would have played out how to handle a false report with NK's death, and without it. And I would have played out the suspicion it would cause-- a worse result than a nullcheck. I think Scumme would have nullchecked my partner, or redchecked a heavily suspected town slot. I dont know, I havent given this a great deal of thought except this morning. But I am confident scum!me would have played out how to make a false report enough to realize a JK claim was the worst possible claim for scum!me. WIFOM away...