Newbie 1863 Dead Topic

[Thor665]

Oxy is rampaging away with random number math and acting like it's remotely connected to reality.
Yeah, sure, a 2/6 chances is inferior to a 2/5 chance.
But if you're sitting around going "well, scum will kill Elephant or Teacher" you're also basically admitting you have a zero chance of wanting to lynch one of them, so if one of them is scum they're already pretty much assured to win, and if your reads are right you're arguing that 2/4 is less good for random lynching than 2/4.

But what do I know? Apparently I was statistically very likely to be scum.

[Not Known 15]

Teacher is 100% town, ok...(otherwise they wouldn't have known "No Result")
At this point it is probably 2 lurkers... or elephant + lurker but then very well played scum...

[mhsmith0]

Lettuce try the ole' sort by post count, become werewolf expert...

newbies
teacher 172
dds+oxy 154
irrelephant 57
flicker 43

james

34 (one day phase)

non-newbies

Thor

137
Nauci + brass 63

NK15

56
cedrick + meji 28

hmm...

[Not Known 15]

You forgot 3 from TGP whom I replaced...
But yes Flicker hasn't been lurking as much at it seemed. Meji, however...
And Nauci was active, but had long lurking phases including the times of the lynches.

[Nauci]

I forgot that the setup was super ultra hard for me to read because I use the mobile skin colors lol

Everything makes so much more sense now

[Nauci]

And by "everything" I mean except for Brass's opening post

[Nauci]

I kept thinking I'd pressure park my vote until I finally finished catching up T_T

I feel so bad for not replacing out earlier

[Nauci]

I still hard TR every single Flicker post

[Nauci]

I could have sworn that my last posts were about being too busy with WORK to post now that I'm healthy, and that I had more time when I was sick, so I'm not sure why there's this whole "Nauci was sick" thing happening.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw, nk absolutely bet the game on teacher being scum here, since teacher just shoots up the lynch list potentially if he’s actually the tracker here.

[mhsmith0]

I'll answer your posts in full before bed, but to correct one thing - Meji is clear because she pointed out why you must be scum.

Scum might distance today - they might even bus - but I don't see them giving the solve like that. If scum!meji is busing you here by outing why your result is wrong, that's on another level.

This is somewhat wrong btw. MOST scum wouldn’t do that to a buddy. GOOD scum can do it easily tho; it wasn’t that long ago when I modded a newbie where RC came into LYLO and bussed the shit out of his newbscum buddy in a convincing looking manner for the easy f3 (or f4? I confess I forget) win. Then again, MOST scum aren’t RC and don’t have the confidence or range to somewhat needlessly bus in this situation just to lock in the pocket of the board.

[Thor665]

I will still stand by my current belief that the best scum option nowadays is to refuse to bus at all. You can and should do distancing - but never bus.
No one outside silly players gives much town cred to all but the most aggressive of bussing - so why help lynch a scumbuddy? Let someone else look like the "questionable vote" on the scum wagon.

[Thor665]

The quicksand argument style that pulled me down to obv. scum for both Teacher and Oxy is now targeting each other and doing the same.
I think both get a little too committed to their debate point and start to loose focus on the purpose of the debate.

[mhsmith0]

Bussing is most dangerous when there are PRs who can solve the game and punish scum for getting one of their members lynched. In this game state, there are zero PRs who can do this (teacher is either scum or a tracker and outed tracker is basically useless), which means that bussing, while not necessarily optimal here, is certainly not (if done well anyway) game breaking.

Also scum PRs bussing goons is a time-honored tradition

[Nauci]

Fwiw, nk absolutely bet the game on teacher being scum here, since teacher just shoots up the lynch list potentially if he’s actually the tracker here.

Really? Did he tell you that?

Seems bizarre after his posts.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw, nk absolutely bet the game on teacher being scum here, since teacher just shoots up the lynch list potentially if he’s actually the tracker here.

Really? Did he tell you that?

Seems bizarre after his posts.

NK didn't tell me that, but it's pretty clearly what he functionally did. If teacher is town (and thus the tracker), claiming a block from someone who hadn't been SR'ing him is extremely likely to look like utter bullshit to some to most of the living players, and this is eminently predictable from the board state going into n2.

[Nauci]

I still have a hard time believing that scum gambit no kill and that it somehow led to the jk outing on d2

This is a great game

[Nauci]

I hope I get to play again with a lot of these people someday, when I'm not in some way incapacitated. This has been one of the best games I've ever read.

[Thor665]

I just finished a Large with a (nearly) flawless town victory.
This game has been a headache in comparison

But, on a more serious note, I think multiple of these players will clearly evolve into very good players, which is nice. I am just sad that it looks like a bit of tunneling and some early derp theorylooks to be rampaging them into a town loss.
They shouldn't hold themselves fully to blame for it, and I hope they stick around for more games.

[Nauci]

I'm pretty sure that everyone will develop severe trust issues and become great players once they find out about the no kill

[mhsmith0]

Flawless town wins are FUN (except for the scum team lol)

[Not Known 15]

And it is also a great learning experience for SE's such as me... and probably even for you Thor.
Yeah but the tunneling is correct here... Yeah a nokill was an option. It didn't feel likely... and it wouldn't have absolved Thor.
Maybe Meji would really have been the better option...
except if the team is Elephant+Flicker.

[Not Known 15]

Flawless town wins are FUN (except for the scum team lol)

I doubt that very much.
Flawless town win sounds like "oh well scum played so bad that we consecutively lynched them all!"

[Nauci]

Lol I think if I were scum

I would have been sooooo tempted to open the day with a tracker claim and red check on teacher for the murder of no

Not that it would have been a great idea

[Nauci]

I don't see a world where scum teacher would have thought to crumb flicker like that so I honestly am shocked that he was scrutinized this hard